Investing Thread

[Goose]

Hards

I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Hards

I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.

Why do you think that is (that he won't back down on zero covid policy)? Refusing to admit that it doesn't work? Trying to save face by insisting it does? Some other reason?

[Goose]

smith

A number of reasons, but the biggest one is making a change in policy would show weakness. In addition, I have always felt there was far more behind the story on why they have the zero covid policy. It was pretty much built a wall around China and kept 99% of westerners out of China for nearly three years.

Plus, I said in early post, I think this could be great reason for China to invade Taiwan and deflect attention off of the protests, if they were to continue. They have many tools to use against the protesters but deflecting attention may be the best option.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This piece does a good job talking about the steps needed to actually invade Taiwan - and it makes it seem extremely unlikely.  However it also lays out how China can do more militarily than simply invade.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053

[JWags85]

While I only watched the Congressional testimony and not seen Fast Money or listened to the podcast, I'm going to guess Duffy did not bring up "Democrats pushed back hard" because "SBF was their 2nd largest donor" and that Lenny pulled the political stuff from Tuckems. I'm open to correction.

Oh I thought you only were speaking of the "hes a fraud" comment from Duffy, not the overall narrative.  My bad.

I share your worries about China, but I think Xi is going to have to cave on the zero covid policy.  They should have been using all of this time to vaccinate their population, but havent been.

Hards

I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.

I tend to agree with Goose here.  For example, I saw this over the weekend...

https://twitter.com/DreyerChina/status/1596721748824641536?s=20&t=Jlzpk5txLZn1A9Z-VGOpkg

Basically China editing World Cup coverage to not show unmasked crowds cause it was causing pushback to their policy and dissension.  Even more telling is that its been forced to be taken down. 

[MuggsyB]

Hards

I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.

Ya.....this could be really ugly... possibly 1989 ugly. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

"Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies listed rose Tuesday, aided by speculation that China was planning to ease a stringent zero-Covid policy that has dragged on Chinese stocks. The American depositary receipts of Chinese online travel agency Trip.com and hotel group H World saw the most significant gains. E-commerce giant Alibaba, which some analysts deem a proxy for the Chinese economy, gained more than 5%. Tuesday's rebound follows a rally in Chinese stocks" (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverag)

[🏀]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7eaw/robot-landlords-are-buying-up-houses

Gee, wow, I've only been talking about this sort of thing for over a year now.

Now back to vacation.

I, for one, welcome our robot overlords.

[Lennys Tap]

I see what you're trying to do, but Duffy said that stuff on a CNBC podcast then doubled down on Fast Money...

Thank you.

It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Thank you.

It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.

I take exception to that.  I just questioned what you reported and it was in fact inaccurate.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Thank you.

It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.

I take exception to that.  I just questioned what you reported and it was in fact inaccurate.

And I was making fun of you because you used to go endlessly back and forth with Chicos here on the most pedantic little things, but ironically you have become him posting information that claims one thing, but says quite the opposite.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Thank you.

It won’t stop dishonest people (Smith, Sultan, Frenns, etc.) from attacking any message they don’t want to hear but that’s Just a part of what Scoop has become.

Good lord, you are lying in Chicos fashion yet again. One would think you'd be embarrassed, but I guess you've passed that point as well.

Inserting an extraneous and purely partisan political take culled directly from Tucker Carlson and then when called on it claiming that you are a victim? The student has become the master.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Good lord, you are lying in Chicos fashion yet again. One would think you'd be embarrassed, but I guess you've passed that point as well.

Inserting an extraneous and purely partisan political take culled directly from Tucker Carlson and then when called on it claiming that you are a victim? The student has become the master.

🐷🐷

[Hards Alumni]

Hards

I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.

The world has changed a lot.  I'm not sure that China can effectively maintain a zero covid policy.  Of course it will display weakness, but as I mentioned in my previous post, they could display strength by vaccinating their population and once they have reached a high enough level of vaccination, they can eliminate the zero covid measures.  If Xi is inflexible, so will be the people of China.

I'm not sure if I posted this video a few months back, but I think it describes why invading Taiwan would be devastating for China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw

[MU82]

The employment news was too good today -- November nonfarm payrolls +263K vs. +200K expected and unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.7%, in line with consensus.

SPY futures went from flat to -1.5% in a matter of seconds after the report.

[Golden Avalanche]

The employment news was too good today -- November nonfarm payrolls +263K vs. +200K expected and unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.7%, in line with consensus.

SPY futures went from flat to -1.5% in a matter of seconds after the report.

Fascinating to live in a time period where the economy is "too good" on many metrics and yet wide swathes of our citizenry are wholly convinced these are the worst economic conditions of their lifetime.

Yet another bookmark for the theory of motivated reasoning.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Fascinating to live in a time period where the economy is "too good" on many metrics and yet wide swathes of our citizenry are wholly convinced these are the worst economic conditions of their lifetime.

Yet another bookmark for the theory of motivated reasoning.

Kind of. I think most people's impressions of "the economy" is highly dependent on individual circumstance in comparison to others. And with inflation, it makes it seem like "the economy" sucks cause things simply cost more.  And without widespread unemployment, there is no "benchmark" that gets them to think "well prices might be high, but at least I have a job unlike Joe."

And remember two years ago, things cost a lot less and people had more money in the bank.  Obviously there was a reason for that, but I am not sure that people put that into perspective.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Fascinating to live in a time period where the economy is "too good" on many metrics and yet wide swathes of our citizenry are wholly convinced these are the worst economic conditions of their lifetime.

Yet another bookmark for the theory of motivated reasoning.

I got extremely mad at a political ad that always ran during Jeopardy.  There was some Gen X woman crying that "I'm a business owner and it's the worst the economy has ever been in my entire lifetime."  I would always scream at the TV, "Where the F' were you in 2008 when The Great Recession began, under a F'n rock for a few years!?  Seriously, WTF!?"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I got extremely mad at a political ad that always ran during Jeopardy.  There was some Gen X woman crying that "I'm a business owner and it's the worst the economy has ever been in my entire lifetime."  I would always scream at the TV, "Where the F' were you in 2008 when The Great Recession began, under a F'n rock for a few years!?  Seriously, WTF!?"

Someone should investigate why according to the TV, the American Economy always seems to hit new lows every two years between June and November.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Unlike other economic cycles (and I have never thought this cycle was a recession technically), this cycle was (I dare say) supply side-driven versus a demand side--which is historically the case (70% of of economy is consumer demand driven).  Companies and institutions have brought out their demand side economic playbooks, however, and missed it.

The exception was tech where the higher interest rates dried up their next funding rounds--but who needed a correction anyway as their demand sides, in many cases, were a house of cards.

[Hards Alumni]

Unlike other economic cycles (and I have never thought this cycle was a recession technically), this cycle was (I dare say) supply side-driven versus a demand side--which is historically the case (70% of of economy is consumer demand driven).  Companies and institutions have brought out their demand side economic playbooks, however, and missed it.

The exception was tech where the higher interest rates dried up their next funding rounds--but who needed a correction anyway as their demand sides, in many cases, were a house of cards.

We are in agreement.

[Dr. Blackheart]

DTV is and always has been a cash flow play for AT&T and allowed their Uverse product to finally by margin positive by combining more favorable programmer deals.  Who is going to buy DTV?

Hoopaloop

[MU82]

Crypto broker Genesis owes Gemini's customers $900 million - FT

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-exchange-gemini-trying-recover-120738149.html

(Reuters) -Crypto broker Genesis and its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) owe customers of the Winklevoss twins' crypto exchange Gemini $900 million, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.

Crypto exchange Gemini is trying to recover the funds after Genesis was wrongfooted by last month’s failure of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto group, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.

[rocky_warrior]

Or China will just loosen covid restrictions...seems more logical than starting a war.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Hards

I think there is little chance of Xi backing down on the zero covid policy and think he doubles down on cracking down the protests. Very serious situation and I believe it is going to get far more serious in upcoming days/weeks.

China announces major easing of "zero-COVID" policy after protests
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-announces-major-easing-of-zero-covid-policy-after-protests/ar-AA150oIz