Opponents not looking great of late

[Cheeks]

Chicos example immediately is way out of date.  It does not work this way anymore.

Sports gambling is an ultra-competitive cutthroat business.  Even more so now that they have to compete with online sites.

Correct, it is cutthroat, and of course analytics is massively in play and used now more than ever.  In face I said that.  However, that doesn't change the end state of what the book needs to do to make money.

Sport Radar, arguably THE most important player in sports gambling in Europe and soon to be in North America.  Analytics out the wazoo.  But the book has to make money, and the only way to do that is to get the betters to out money on both sides to avoid them losing their ass.  Of course there are examples when they fail, which is why it is so important that they try to get a line that moves th public equally.

My comments are not out of date, in fact they are less then a week old from some of the most important players in the industry.  A lot of people and companies trying to crack this code from Mark Cuban to Google to Amazon to every sports distributor and league you can imagine. 

[MU82]

Great wins for K State tough to win on the road.

With Dean back and getting healthier by the day, K-State could have a very nice second half of the season and could end up being a very nice win for us -- which of course it was. Not at all "lucky"!

[warriorchick]

Incidentally, for the HIPPA nerds ...

Want to know who is employing greasy haired Vinnie hanging around the AL to get the inside story on Markus status for Sunday?  The sports books are they will have money on the favorite (MU).  So Wojo only has himself to blame if shady characters on walking around or near the AL. 

The control freak nature of coaches keeping this info private is a problem.  Why do you think the NBA and NFL require this to be public?  Because they are nice guys?  No, it is to keep Vinnie far away from them.

BTW, most "HIPPA nerds" know that it's actually *HIPAA*.

[tower912]

Incidentally, for the HIPPA nerds ...

Want to know who is employing greasy haired Vinnie hanging around the AL to get the inside story on Markus status for Sunday?  The sports books are they will have money on the favorite (MU).  So Wojo only has himself to blame if shady characters on walking around or near the AL. 

The control freak nature of coaches keeping this info private is a problem.  Why do you think the NBA and NFL require this to be public?  Because they are nice guys?  No, it is to keep Vinnie far away from them.

Right now, because MU has not disclosed Markus's status for Sunday, the Providence coaching staff is forced to prepare two separate game plans for their defense.     MU gains absolutely nothing by announcing his status early.   

[Its DJOver]

Since this has turned into a gambling thread, I've got a question as someone who has never bet on sports (outside of March Madness pools).  How much do people bet on a random Sunday morning Beast men's college basketball game (not your personal bets, but more of a total number)?  I could see someone trying to grease some palms, to get injury information for the Final Four, or Super Bowl, or something, but is there really that much action on a MU, Providence game?

[UWW2MU]

I'm confused, is Vegas a former or future opponent of MU?   I can't seem to find them on my schedule.

[fjm]

Since this has turned into a gambling thread, I've got a question as someone who has never bet on sports (outside of March Madness pools).  How much do people bet on a random Sunday morning Beast men's college basketball game (not your personal bets, but more of a total number)?  I could see someone trying to grease some palms, to get injury information for the Final Four, or Super Bowl, or something, but is there really that much action on a MU, Providence game?

The betting service I go through, minimum bet is $10.

[MuMark]

KSU back up to 37 on the NET.........still a chance that they could sneak into quad 1 territory
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[Lennys Tap]

I'm not going to argue on and on about this or play Heisy Copypasta, but this just isn't true. The house fears one-sided betting because it exposes them to big losses, and if the house didn't care about equal action, it wouldn't bother adjusting the spread based on the bets they're getting.
Fin.

I won't argue on and on either. You're a smart guy who usually know what he's talking about but you're just flat wrong here. Every week in the NFL there are games that are wagered lopsidedly because the public PERCEIVES the line is "incorrect". But Vegas has enough data that they're confident the line is correct and that their line has made the game a "coin flip". Half of the time the public will be right and Vegas will lose. The other half of the time the public will be wrong and Vegas will win. And because of the vig Vegas wins much more in the latter's case than it loses in the former.  (10 million bet on team A, 5 million on team B. Team A wins, Vegas loses 5 million. Team B wins Vegas wins 6 million). Believe me Vegas is much more concerned with offering an accurate line than they are putting out an inaccurate one in HOPES that the action ends up even. Doing that is how you risk going broke.

[Lennys Tap]

Correct, it is cutthroat, and of course analytics is massively in play and used now more than ever.  In face I said that.  However, that doesn't change the end state of what the book needs to do to make money.

Sport Radar, arguably THE most important player in sports gambling in Europe and soon to be in North America.  Analytics out the wazoo.  But the book has to make money, and the only way to do that is to get the betters to out money on both sides to avoid them losing their ass.  Of course there are examples when they fail, which is why it is so important that they try to get a line that moves th public equally.

My comments are not out of date, in fact they are less then a week old from some of the most important players in the industry.  A lot of people and companies trying to crack this code from Mark Cuban to Google to Amazon to every sports distributor and league you can imagine.

The only thing the book needs to do to make money is make good lines (making the game an actual coin flip) and charge $11 to win $10. Of course they eliminate ALL risk if the handle is exactly even so that would be their preference. Because that's impossible, they're very comfortable "gambling" against the public's perceptions vs. their facts.

[bilsu]

The line is not necessarily intended to be accurate. It is intended to balance the betting. For example, if Wisconsin is playing Northwestern in football, I would expect that there are more badger fans betting on Wisconsin than there are Northwestern fans betting on Northwestern. Vegas may think it is a 7 point game in the badgers favor, but might increase the line to 8 to balance the betting field. The opening line changes, if the betting comes in unbalanced.

Some lines are a pure crapshoot, especially in basketball. A number 1 seed might be a 35 point favor over a 16 seed. There may be no doubt in your mind that number 1 seed is 35 points better, but how do you know when the number 1 seed's coach is going to empty the bench. The coach is not going to leave his starters in to cover the line.

When I was in Vegas last year during the conference tournaments the guy in front of me made at least three money line 3 game parley bets. He was betting $700 on the heavy favorites such as Kentucky, Kansas and Duke or Kentucky, North Carolina, Villanova, etc. Being money line bets those teams only had to win, but the payoff would of been very low. Maybe $700 to get paid $800. He of won all of those bets as the heavy favorites won their games. However, I was wondering how he did the next week when Virginia became the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. He could have had Virginia in more than one $700 parley. All of a sudden easy money could of turned into a disaster.

[McCormick Survivor]

Notre dame alumni notoriously put big money on bad teams all the time. At 11-6 this year I really miss having them on the schedule.  Even if a win wouldn't help us in the standings, I could make money at the sports bet and watch Brey pop a blood vessel...

[LoudMouth]

KSU back up to 37 on the NET.........still a chance that they could sneak into quad 1 territory
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

It is nice that most of our opponents are not in any immediate danger of falling to the lower quadrant. Our 4 games that aren't Q1 or Q4 are all much closer to jumping up then they are to falling back. And all our Q1s are pretty solid as well...minus F*cky

[MuMark]

The only thing the book needs to do to make money is make good lines (making the game an actual coin flip) and charge $11 to win $10. Of course they eliminate ALL risk if the handle is exactly even so that would be their preference. Because that's impossible, they're very comfortable "gambling" against the public's perceptions vs. their facts.

Why do you think the line moves if all the casino cares about is making good lines? It moves because they are getting lopsided money on one side so they move the line to get action on the other.

If your theory was correct lines wouldn't move.....they would just be happy as a clam with tons of money coming in on one side or the other...........they aren't.

They don't want to gamble......they want to make transaction fees.......

[BM1090]

Why do you think the line moves if all the casino cares about is making good lines? It moves because they are getting lopsided money on one side so they move the line to get action on the other.

If your theory was correct lines wouldn't move.....they would just be happy as a clam with tons of money coming in on one side or the other...........they aren't.

They don't want to gamble......they want to make transaction fees.......

Lines move for all sorts of reasons. Plenty of instances for example of RLM where 66% of the money is on one side and 33% of the money is on the other, but the 33% comes from expert bettors so the line moves backwards to entice more money on the 66% side. Most of the time, yes they are trying to earn money with transaction fees but more often than you think they take a side on the game.

If you have proven bettors who win 60%+ of their bets over a long period of time, of course you are going to side with those bettors because it gets you more money in the long run.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The only thing the book needs to do to make money is make good lines (making the game an actual coin flip) and charge $11 to win $10. Of course they eliminate ALL risk if the handle is exactly even so that would be their preference. Because that's impossible, they're very comfortable "gambling" against the public's perceptions vs. their facts.

So when lines move did the analytics change? Did they get new information about one of the teams? I was always told it was because too many bets were coming in on one side. I don't gamble so I honestly don't know.

Are you just saying that Vegas makes their initial lines based on analytics and then moves them based on the money?

[Smokin' Jae]

Why do you think the line moves if all the casino cares about is making good lines? It moves because they are getting lopsided money on one side so they move the line to get action on the other.

If your theory was correct lines wouldn't move.....they would just be happy as a clam with tons of money coming in on one side or the other...........they aren't.

They don't want to gamble......they want to make transaction fees.......

Couldn't be further from the truth, sports books take a side far more than you think

[Heisenberg]

Lines move for all sorts of reasons. Plenty of instances for example of RLM where 66% of the money is on one side and 33% of the money is on the other, but the 33% comes from expert bettors so the line moves backwards to entice more money on the 66% side. Most of the time, yes they are trying to earn money with transaction fees but more often than you think they take a side on the game.

If you have proven bettors who win 60%+ of their bets over a long period of time, of course you are going to side with those bettors because it gets you more money in the long run.

Remember, they're numerous ways to bet.  Sportsbooks are forced to move to the lowest point spread because the internet makes it easy to find and get the tightest spread.  When sportsbooks you are forced to the tightest spread, they often have an unbalanced bet putting a lot of the Vig at risk.

Notice that the 11 10 vig never changes.  That is what they use to cover their unbalanced books.

Welcome to 2019

[Heisenberg]

Right now, because MU has not disclosed Markus's status for Sunday, the Providence coaching staff is forced to prepare two separate game plans for their defense.     MU gains absolutely nothing by announcing his status early.

Providence knows. 

They have a booster that paid greasy haired Vinnie to tell them Markus status.  Boosters do it so the program stays clean.

And don't fool yourself.  MU has similar boosters.

[Pakuni]

Remember, they're numerous ways to bet.  Sportsbooks are forced to move to the lowest point spread because the internet makes it easy to find and get the tightest spread. 

OK, this is the second time you've made this argument, and it doesn't make a ton of sense.
Yes, if the spread narrows at one particular book, they're going to draw more action from bettors who want to bet the favorite.
But, conversely, it's going to push away bettors who want the points, sending them to books with the larger spread.
Your theory only works if the book's primary goal is to attract action on the favorite. And even then, it makes no sense, because rarely is it beneficial to reduce the number of points a favorite has to give.

[Lennys Tap]

So when lines move did the analytics change? Did they get new information about one of the teams? I was always told it was because too many bets were coming in on one side. I don't gamble so I honestly don't know.

Are you just saying that Vegas makes their initial lines based on analytics and then moves them based on the money?

First of all, lines on the "big stuff" (NFL games) don't change much. As eagle pointed out total action isn't what moves them when they do move, it's action from pros that casino respect. But even then, barring big news (QB hurt) they don't move much. The big fear for Vegas isn't the public beating them picking winners - it's getting "middled". Say they opened a game with Dallas a 9 point favorite and moved to 10.5 because the yahoo Cowboy fans bet their team. And then the "pros" see value (true fair value being 9) getting 10.5 and pound the Cowboy's opponent. Cowboys win by 10. Vegas loses BOTH sides.

Look at it this way. The odds of a balanced coin landing heads or tails is even money but the public loves heads. Do you make heads a 7-5 favorites to try and even out the action? Professional gamblers would eventually make that a suicidal proposition.

[UWW2MU]

UTEP lost last night.

Oh wait, am I in the wrong thread again...?   

[JakeBarnes]

UTEP lost last night.

Oh wait, am I in the wrong thread again...?   

But what was the line movement before the game?

[LoudMouth]

But what was the line movement before the game?

[Cheeks]

UTEP lost last night.

Oh wait, am I in the wrong thread again...?   

They weren't able to take a winning shot in .5 like last week.....which is humanely impossible as so rated by the scientists at Scoop?