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Author Topic: Opponents not looking great of late  (Read 14165 times)

Cheeks

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Opponents not looking great of late
« on: January 03, 2019, 11:11:20 PM »
Yes, concerning

Wisconsin has looked like crap last few games

Kansas State, too

IU struggled at home tonight against a bad Illinois team.

We need to beat X in a very bad way.

Logi4three

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2019, 11:31:44 PM »
Have no idea if both teams were good/bad, but Illinois played Georgetown tough in a pre-conference game earlier this year and actually looked competitive.  They may be better than advertised despite some disappointing losses.

Goose

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2019, 12:28:40 AM »
Cheeks

Opponents are looking pretty much as expected. The UW and KState wins will have a lot less juice in March than many on here thought. MU needs to take care of biz in down BE or they might be in trouble come March.
As I know you will challenge me again, but UW is not a very good team this season. Glad we beat them, but far from marquee W.

wadesworld

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2019, 05:49:45 AM »
Concerning? Pretty much every bracketology I’ve seen has us as a 4-6 seed currently. We had a great non-con. 10 BE wins and we’re in...just like almost any other year.

I expect 12-14 wins. If we do that we’re a 4-6 seed at worst.

warriorchick

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2019, 06:50:34 AM »
Yes, concerning

Wisconsin has looked like crap last few games

Kansas State, too

IU struggled at home tonight against a bad Illinois team.

We need to beat X in a very bad good way.

FIFY
Have some patience, FFS.

Its DJOver

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2019, 07:31:19 AM »
While not looking great, I wouldn't exactly worry yet.  Prior to their loss to Minn, UW was 15 in NET.  I think it's unlikely that they drop out of the top 30 so Q1 win.  History tells us that Kansas will win the B12 so we're fine there.  I4 would have to really drop off to be anything less than a Q1 loss.  While right on the cusp of Q1 and Q2, Buffalo should roll through the MAC and be a considered a good win.  Now that conference play has started, I don't think 'Ville will stay top 30, but I don't think they will drop out of the top 50.  Really the only concerning non-conference opponent is K-State, and with the injuries that they're dealing with, that's understandable.  As is stands now:
I4- Q1 loss
KU- Q1 loss
'Ville- Q1 win
K-State- Q2 win
UW- Q1 win
UBuff- Q1 win
That's certainly fine for a non conference right now.  If teams continue to drop off, there may be a reason to worry.

tower912

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2019, 07:35:00 AM »
Aw, hell no.  Somebody else beat teams we beat.  Marquette is screwed.  Cancel the rest of the season.   Why isn't this in the doom thread, as clearly the end is near.
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Sultan of South Wayne

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2019, 08:16:06 AM »
UW is in trouble next year.  They run *everything* though Happ.  He lead them in points, rebounds and assists last night.  I mean, they only had five assists last night and he had three of them.  And for those crowing about Gard, I have seen very little player development under his watch. 
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MU82

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2019, 08:22:50 AM »
It's enough fun "worrying" about one thing we can't control (Warriors). Certainly not gonna worry about a bunch of other things we can't control.
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will.

-- Frederick Douglass

Sultan of South Wayne

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2019, 08:26:06 AM »
Well yeah.  If it comes down to what our opponents have accomplished, then this season is going to go much worse than anticipated.  It will be disappointing if we get anything less than a sixth seed.
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fjm

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2019, 08:29:12 AM »
Yes, concerning

Wisconsin has looked like crap last few games

Kansas State, too

IU struggled at home tonight against a bad Illinois team.

We need to beat X in a very bad way.

You forgot to add southern who has 1 win.
And North Dakota who stinks!

And lest we forget, UTEP!

Oh no!!!!!

tower912

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2019, 08:38:55 AM »
Good thing the combined record of the 3 teams who have defeated Marquette is 37-4.     Phew.   
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StillWarriors

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2019, 09:07:53 AM »
K State is down two of their top players. That would affect any team. I'm not certain if their return status has been determined yet, but assuming they are able to come back they should return to being a very solid team. Regardless, they were highly ranked at the time we beat them and that was widely noted. I don't see that win being greatly tarnished if KSt tumbles due to injuries to marquee players.

hairy worthen

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2019, 09:17:29 AM »
Yes, concerning

Wisconsin has looked like crap last few games

Kansas State, too

IU struggled at home tonight against a bad Illinois team.

We need to beat X in a very bad way.

MU should be at a place where it shouldn’t be a "concern" what their opponents do. Win the games in front of them and it will take care of itself.  As far as I’m concerned, Wisconsin can lose every game it plays going forward. I would never root for them to win in any scenario. And Goose is right, WI is not very good and will be worse next year.

skianth16

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2019, 09:30:56 AM »
K State is down two of their top players. That would affect any team. I'm not certain if their return status has been determined yet, but assuming they are able to come back they should return to being a very solid team. Regardless, they were highly ranked at the time we beat them and that was widely noted. I don't see that win being greatly tarnished if KSt tumbles due to injuries to marquee players.

KSU still lost to Tulsa when they were at full strength too, though. I went through this in another thread, but they look BAD right now. Sure, losing Wade for a month or so is going to hurt, but they almost dropped games to George Mason and Southern Miss at home in the last couple weeks. Losing a guy averaging 13/7 shouldn't make that big a difference against the cupcake portion of the schedule. If they keep playing the way they have since we played them, they won't be a Q1 win. They could really drop dealing off with a tough Big 12 this year if they don't figure something out soon.
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Its DJOver

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2019, 09:37:26 AM »
KSU still lost to Tulsa when they were at full strength too, though. I went through this in another thread, but they look BAD right now. Sure, losing Wade for a month or so is going to hurt, but they almost dropped games to George Mason and Southern Miss at home in the last couple weeks. Losing a guy averaging 13/7 shouldn't make that big a difference against the cupcake portion of the schedule. If they keep playing the way they have since we played them, they won't be a Q1 win. They could really drop dealing off with a tough Big 12 this year if they don't figure something out soon.
K-State has already dropped from a Q1 win to a Q2 win.  They would have to drop another 20 spots to fall to Q3 which is unlikely.  They would also have to gain 20+ spots to get back up to Q1, also unlikely. 

Goose

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2019, 10:08:56 AM »
hairy

Spot on across the board. All Mu needs to do is win the games they should win and take care of business. If that happens, no issues in March. If they need to have the UW and KState wins help them in March, shame on them. They need to take care of business in BE the rest of the way. Saturday is a big game for the boys.

fjm

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2019, 10:12:20 AM »
hairy

Spot on across the board. All Mu needs to do is win the games they should win and take care of business. If that happens, no issues in March. If they need to have the UW and KState wins help them in March, shame on them. They need to take care of business in BE the rest of the way. Saturday is a big game for the boys.

Hopefully they play even better on Sunday then!

But agreed on all fronts gooze

MDMU04

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2019, 11:36:39 AM »
I think we have a team for the first time in probably 5 years that’s good enough where we don’t have to worry about 2nd order stuff like this. This team has the talent to control its own destiny into the tournament.

If it gets to the point with this team where we’re worrying about opponents wins and losses in 10 weeks, I will find that more concerning in the big picture than just for this season alone.
"They call me eccentric. They used to call me nuts. I haven't changed." - Al McGuire

Goose

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2019, 11:43:30 AM »
MDMU

While many are very optimistic on this team, there have been a couple of threads tracking the 2nd order stuff pretty closely for two months. I have never been believer in 2nd order stuff, but judging by threads on here, many think it MU needs that help to improve their possession in March. That said, I definitely agree with your comment on what is the talk 10 weeks out. If folks are talking about 2nd order stuff, the team is either not good enough or under performed.

Its DJOver

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2019, 11:49:02 AM »
I think we have a team for the first time in probably 5 years that’s good enough where we don’t have to worry about 2nd order stuff like this. This team has the talent to control its own destiny into the tournament.

If it gets to the point with this team where we’re worrying about opponents wins and losses in 10 weeks, I will find that more concerning in the big picture than just for this season alone.

I understand this line of thought, especially since we've been on the bubble the last two years, and have had the "blind resume test" game, but unless you're getting a 1 seed (which we're not), it's still important to pay attention to how your former opponents are doing. 

Worst case scenario, UW, and Buffalo drop out of the top 30, Louisville drops out of the top 50, and K-State continues their skid and falls out of the top 75, which would leave us with 0 Q1 non conference wins.  While that is both unlikely, and wouldn't keep us out of the tourney, it would more than likely drop us a few seed lines/worse location.

Should it be a major worry? No, we should get a bid regardless, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

MDMU

While many are very optimistic on this team, there have been a couple of threads tracking the 2nd order stuff pretty closely for two months. I have never been believer in 2nd order stuff, but judging by threads on here, many think it MU needs that help to improve their possession in March. That said, I definitely agree with your comment on what is the talk 10 weeks out. If folks are talking about 2nd order stuff, the team is either not good enough or under performed.

Will other results effect us?  Absolutely, yes.  Will they prevent us from getting a bid?  They'd better not, or you would be correct in that we would be under-performing.

Goose

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2019, 11:52:59 AM »
DJO

Agreed on your thoughts based off the assumption that MU delivers in BE. The quality NC wins are not going to be as quality as one thought come March. MU has to deliver in BE and cannot afford slip ups. IMO, the wiggle room is not quite as comfy today as it was 2-3 weeks ago.

skianth16

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2019, 12:07:14 PM »
K-State has already dropped from a Q1 win to a Q2 win.  They would have to drop another 20 spots to fall to Q3 which is unlikely.  They would also have to gain 20+ spots to get back up to Q1, also unlikely.

Their next 4 games are all tough. It's not out of the question for them to go 1-3 or even 0-4. That could drop them another 20 points, don't you think?
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Herman Cain

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2019, 12:31:17 PM »
MU Formula:
Win 12 guaranteed tournament invite
Win 11 probable tournament invite
Win 10 Dicey

Its DJOver

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2019, 01:07:08 PM »
Their next 4 games are all tough. It's not out of the question for them to go 1-3 or even 0-4. That could drop them another 20 points, don't you think?

I don't know enough about NET calculation to say.  I also don't know when they are supposed to get healthy again.  I will say this though, if they continue to play poorly and lose, they could very well drop out of the top 75.  However, if when they get healthy, they have a strong final month, it will make up for it.  If i had to guess where they'll be in March I would say right about where they are now.  Certainly not a cupcake, but not the high quality Q1 win that we thought it would be a month ago.  Plus, as Goose pointed out, if it matters more than "are we getting a 4 or 5 seed", or "where are they sending us", the problem will be us, not them.