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Author Topic: Opponents not looking great of late  (Read 12555 times)

mu03eng

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2019, 01:29:03 PM »
MU Formula:
Win 12 guaranteed tournament invite
Win 11 probable tournament invite
Win 10 Dicey

11 is guaranteed unless its some really flukey combination of wins. 10 is where I'd start to get worried and 9 would have us right out I think.

The PAC12 looks like a 1 bid league so the bids have to come from somewhere else. I'd guess the Big East gets 4 bids with the max being 5. Finishing with 11 wins or higher basically assures us of a top 3 league finish.
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skianth16

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2019, 01:30:15 PM »
I don't know enough about NET calculation to say.  I also don't know when they are supposed to get healthy again.  I will say this though, if they continue to play poorly and lose, they could very well drop out of the top 75.  However, if when they get healthy, they have a strong final month, it will make up for it.  If i had to guess where they'll be in March I would say right about where they are now.  Certainly not a cupcake, but not the high quality Q1 win that we thought it would be a month ago.  Plus, as Goose pointed out, if it matters more than "are we getting a 4 or 5 seed", or "where are they sending us", the problem will be us, not them.

Yeah, I agree with all of this. I don't think we'll have any concern over getting in this year, so the quality of our resume should really just be a matter of seeding. Every little bit helps there too, though, so I'm hoping KSU gets healthy and turns things around here pretty soon.
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mu03eng

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #27 on: January 04, 2019, 01:42:29 PM »
Yeah, I agree with all of this. I don't think we'll have any concern over getting in this year, so the quality of our resume should really just be a matter of seeding. Every little bit helps there too, though, so I'm hoping KSU gets healthy and turns things around here pretty soon.

Don't forget that the committee looks at when you beat someone as well which is why they don't just seed based on the analytics alone. Beating KSU when they were healthy and undefeated will still matter in a human sense even though the analytics might say KSU is a crap team over the entire season because of injuries.
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tower912

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #28 on: January 04, 2019, 01:54:47 PM »
10 is a guarantee.   >11 is just about the seeding.   
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GooooMarquette

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2019, 01:57:00 PM »
#peakscoop

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2019, 02:05:16 PM »
Merely pointing out some of the shine is off a few of those teams.  Chance for them to right ship or us to beat some teams that have a high ceiling of their own.

Goose, I think UW Madison extension campus is still a quality team. They have some solid wins that cannot be ignored, but they are struggling at the moment. 

Let us hope we take care of business against Xavier.


MU82

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #31 on: January 04, 2019, 02:06:04 PM »
10 is a guarantee.   >11 is just about the seeding.

I don't know enough about this stuff.

So what if we go 9-0 at home but 1-8 on the road, and that one road win is against the lowest-ranked BEast team (presumably DePaul)? We'd still be guaranteed in with only one road win in the entire season, against a horrible team?

I'm not suggesting we wouldn't be.
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will.

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tower912

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #32 on: January 04, 2019, 02:36:19 PM »
I hear what you are saying, but 21-10/10-8 should still get it.
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MU82

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #33 on: January 04, 2019, 02:39:31 PM »
Well, here's hoping our lads don't let it come down to that. I'd be disappointed if we're a bubble team, and a little disappointed if we were only an 8-9 seed.

I think we're better than that, and I don't think we'll be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

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Floorslapper

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #34 on: January 04, 2019, 02:50:50 PM »
Well, here's hoping our lads don't let it come down to that. I'd be disappointed if we're a bubble team, and a little disappointed if we were only an 8-9 seed.

I think we're better than that, and I don't think we'll be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Go Marquette!

Lads?  Facepalm.

If we can't earn a 6 seed in Year 5, with two juniors, one of whom will be MU's All-Time leading scorer, and the other in the Top 10, AND while the Big East has ZERO Top 25 teams - we've set an incredibly low bar.   

8 or 9 seed is a coin flip to win the first round game.  Is that really what we expected for the Magical Year 5, on a roster with 2 kids who will go down as two of Marquette's finest?

Lazar's Headband

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #35 on: January 04, 2019, 02:59:30 PM »
Lads?  Facepalm.

If we can't earn a 6 seed in Year 5, with two juniors, one of whom will be MU's All-Time leading scorer, and the other in the Top 10, AND while the Big East has ZERO Top 25 teams - we've set an incredibly low bar.   

8 or 9 seed is a coin flip to win the first round game.  Is that really what we expected for the Magical Year 5, on a roster with 2 kids who will go down as two of Marquette's finest?

Before the season,  I predicted a seed range of 6-9.  Some will say that is a low bar but that was my objective assessment.

The Lens

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #36 on: January 04, 2019, 03:25:03 PM »
It's 2019, there are a lot of bad college teams out there.  The bubble is always soft.  Sure our resume has taken a hit but I would wager that so has everyone else's.  That's NCAA hoops in 2019. 

Marquette, we always win the post-game.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #37 on: January 04, 2019, 03:32:18 PM »
MDMU

While many are very optimistic on this team, there have been a couple of threads tracking the 2nd order stuff pretty closely for two months. I have never been believer in 2nd order stuff, but judging by threads on here, many think it MU needs that help to improve their possession in March. That said, I definitely agree with your comment on what is the talk 10 weeks out. If folks are talking about 2nd order stuff, the team is either not good enough or under performed.

Or people just generally enjoy talking college hoops and how things relate to the team we all love.  Marquette isn't really going to need to stress about SOS, RPI, NET, opponents records, etc. this season, and should be relatively high seed in the tourney barring a horrific BE season, but its still fun to talk hoops when MU isn't playing!
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #38 on: January 04, 2019, 03:33:27 PM »
MU Formula:
Win 12 guaranteed tournament invite
Win 11 probable tournament invite
Win 10 Dicey

I think this is very wrong.

11 - stone cold lock
10 - higher seed than we want, still in
9 - probably in, but why the hell did we go .500?
8 - noncon may help us into Dayton, but WTF
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brewcity77

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #39 on: January 04, 2019, 03:42:38 PM »
I think this is very wrong.

11 - stone cold lock
10 - higher seed than we want, still in
9 - probably in, but why the hell did we go .500?
8 - noncon may help us into Dayton, but WTF

This is about right. The bubble looks really soft at the moment. 9 could have us left out, but we'd still be a 20-win team with a number of quality non-con wins, even if teams aren't as good as they looked in December.

skianth16

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #40 on: January 04, 2019, 04:14:38 PM »
Merely pointing out some of the shine is off a few of those teams.  Chance for them to right ship or us to beat some teams that have a high ceiling of their own.

Goose, I think UW Madison extension campus is still a quality team. They have some solid wins that cannot be ignored, but they are struggling at the moment. 

Let us hope we take care of business against Xavier.

You're probably right about UW, but boy, their last 2 games have been awful. Last night they put up 14 in the first half, then when they got close late in the second half, they had 2 or 3 consecutive turnovers and missed a bunch of FTs to let the game slip away. Happ went 1-8 from the line I think. If they were that bad at home against the Gophers, they may not be all they're cracked up to be.
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MUeagle1090

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #41 on: January 04, 2019, 04:18:00 PM »
This is about right. The bubble looks really soft at the moment. 9 could have us left out, but we'd still be a 20-win team with a number of quality non-con wins, even if teams aren't as good as they looked in December.

Yeah. We've gone from overvaluing to undervaluing our wins based on the last week or so. Last year we were right on the bubble until the end with a 9-9 conference record (albeit in a stronger BE) and ZERO wins over NCAA teams in non-conference. We have 3-4 wins over tournament teams already, depending on what happens to Kansas State. Wisconsin and Buffalo are going to get in. Louisville built a good resume. All 4 losses to top 35 Kenpom teams and wins @ Seton Hall and against MSU. Last year we had 5 total wins vs. NCAAT teams (SHU 2x, Creighton 2x, Providence) and we were right there until the end.

tower912

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #42 on: January 04, 2019, 06:13:33 PM »
Sticking with my 22-24 wins, top 3 in the Big East, 5 seed prediction.
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MU82

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #43 on: January 04, 2019, 10:20:13 PM »
I seem to remember "soft bubble" talk around this time last year, too.

I'd prefer it if our lads just win a f%ck-ton of BEast games, starting Sunday vs. X ... and I think they will.
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brewcity77

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #44 on: January 05, 2019, 10:59:13 AM »
I seem to remember "soft bubble" talk around this time last year, too.

I'd prefer it if our lads just win a f%ck-ton of BEast games, starting Sunday vs. X ... and I think they will.

Last year was interesting. The bubble ended up becoming really firm in large part because the teams at the end just didn't do much to separate themselves. Looking from the last four byes to the 2-seeds of the NIT, not a lot separates teams.

Right now there are a lot of teams with weak resumes around the bubble. It'll come down to how much they do to separate themselves in conference play, but when you compare our current resume to the teams that are currently in the "on the bubble" range, we are well ahead of them. That's why 9 should fairly comfortably be enough. Here's the breakdown of the remaining 17 games by Quadrant as they stand now:

Quadrant 1: 5
Quadrant 2: 7
Quadrant 3: 5

So no matter what, if we get to 9, that would mean at least 4 more Q2 wins and a winning record against Q2. We might not have a great Q1 record if teams like Wisconsin, Louisville, and Buffalo fall down the rankings, but they shouldn't fall further than Q2 and that would still give us plenty of heft.

But as you said, win plenty of Big East games and it won't matter.

Floorslapper

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #45 on: January 05, 2019, 06:48:04 PM »
And the beat goes on.  Iowa State defeats Kansas 77-60.

Who was the poster that called Kansas the Number 1 team in the country a few weeks back?

Johnny B

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #46 on: January 05, 2019, 07:19:08 PM »
Damn we missed out on guys like shayok and burton

We R Final Four

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #47 on: January 05, 2019, 07:40:09 PM »
And the beat goes on.  Iowa State defeats Kansas 77-60.

Who was the poster that called Kansas the Number 1 team in the country a few weeks back?
#1 teams lose sometimes.
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buckchuckler

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #48 on: January 05, 2019, 08:03:03 PM »
And the beat goes on.  Iowa State defeats Kansas 77-60.

Who was the poster that called Kansas the Number 1 team in the country a few weeks back?

I don't know, as I don't follow all the little brat fights so closely, but weren't they, in fact the number 1 team in the country a few weeks ago?
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MUeagle1090

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Re: Opponents not looking great of late
« Reply #49 on: January 05, 2019, 08:32:41 PM »
It's almost as if missing Azibuke hurts them a bit