Opponents not looking great of late

[MU82]

NET hasn't been updated since their loss.  That being said, despite their total number of losses, they have yet to lose a game by more than 7 points, and I don't think they'll get punished too much by losing by 4 at the 22nd ranked NET team.  Even with a loss Saturday, unless its a blowout, I would guess that they're still top 25 NET next week.

So all these years, all the coaches who have said, "There are no moral victories" ... NET says, "You're wrong! Congrats on taking Marquette to overtime! Hang a banner!"

[Its DJOver]

I just find it humorous how "strong" the big10 is that Wisconsin could be finish the season 15-18 and be ranked in the top 25 Net.

Fair or not, whether its an accurate measurement of a teams quality or not, that's how all of the advanced stats are these days.  If they do finish with that record and NET ranking, it would mean that they will lose quite a few more close games/heart-breakers.  I'm okay with that.   

[Lennys Tap]

Ahh, the classic "I'm going to be the bigger man (we have an alpha here, too!) and not talk about this topic anymore" only to jump at the first chance you get (it's been a while) to bring it up!

You're right though.  The true home court advantages like Hawaii would never lose at home by 17 to North Texas or anything!  LOL!

And that huge Denver home court advantage would never allow for them to lose to powerhouse Abeline Christian!  Or Northern Colorado by 16!  Or North Dakota by 21!  Or South Dakota!

Good stuff as always Lenny.  Denver and Hawaii, tougher places to win than IU as proven by IU losing tonight at home in the Big Ten.  Scientifically proven by Northern Colorado and North Texas.

LOL!

??? Pomeroy (and other non flat earthers) never claimed it was harder to win a game at Hawaii than it is to win a game at Indiana. Everyone (except evidently you) knows that the better the opponent, the tougher it is to beat them at there place. The FACT is that Hawaii (and 19 others) statistically have a wider margin of improvement at home vs road or neutral than Indiana.

If you were really claiming that Assembly Hall is literally the 3rd toughest place to win a game when Indiana is the 15th, 50th or (think back a few years) 200th best team I don't know what to say other than that is crazy. The truth? When Indiana is one of the top teams in the country they are very hard to beat at home. Substitute any other name for Indiana and the same holds true. And when they stink or are "meh" it's about as hard to win there as it is at most places where the team is bad or average.

You stated that Assembly Hall was (today, in 2019) one of the 3 toughest places to play. Based on what? Do they have a top three record there over the past 5, 10, 15 or 20 year periods? No. Does Vegas adjust the line up for IU at home more than for all but 2 other teams? No. So what were the facts you based your statement on? The same "facts" that made you conclude that a 6 point lead for Virginia was equal to a 20 point lead for Duke or Kansas. IOW, a false assumption. When I make a false assumption or misread the facts I admit it, apologize and move on (see my statements in the Prediction thread). You dig in, move the goalposts, etc. - anything other than admitting (horrors!) that you made an error.

[cheebs09]

So all these years, all the coaches who have said, "There are no moral victories" ... NET says, "You're wrong! Congrats on taking Marquette to overtime! Hang a banner!"

Don’t give that guy at Georgia any ideas. They need a few moral victories.

[Lennys Tap]

Duke tough place to play, they lost to Cuse today at home.  College hoops

Duke is a tough place to play because Duke is a good team.

When I was at MU and for several years after that the Milwaukee Arena was the toughest place to play in the US. We won 81 straight home games!. When the program became mediocre, so did our home record. And when we became bad, we were bad at home too. #venues no matta

[wadesworld]

??? Pomeroy (and other non flat earthers) never claimed it was harder to win a game at Hawaii than it is to win a game at Indiana. Everyone (except evidently you) knows that the better the opponent, the tougher it is to beat them at there place. The FACT is that Hawaii (and 19 others) statistically have a wider margin of improvement at home vs road or neutral than Indiana.

If you were really claiming that Assembly Hall is literally the 3rd toughest place to win a game when Indiana is the 15th, 50th or (think back a few years) 200th best team I don't know what to say other than that is crazy. The truth? When Indiana is one of the top teams in the country they are very hard to beat at home. Substitute any other name for Indiana and the same holds true. And when they stink or are "meh" it's about as hard to win there as it is at most places where the team is bad or average.

You stated that Assembly Hall was (today, in 2019) one of the 3 toughest places to play. Based on what? Do they have a top three record there over the past 5, 10, 15 or 20 year periods? No. Does Vegas adjust the line up for IU at home more than for all but 2 other teams? No. So what were the facts you based your statement on? The same "facts" that made you conclude that a 6 point lead for Virginia was equal to a 20 point lead for Duke or Kansas. IOW, a false assumption. When I make a false assumption or misread the facts I admit it, apologize and move on (see my statements in the Prediction thread). You dig in, move the goalposts, etc. - anything other than admitting (horrors!) that you made an error.

Yup, never shifted any goalposts lol.  That was you big guy.  You used win-loss record to "prove" how IU wasn't one of the toughest places in America to play, then when you "scientifically proved" that Hawaii, Denver, and LSU were the 3 toughest places in America to play and their home win-loss record was thrown back at you, suddenly win-loss record as a way to prove (or disprove) where the toughest places to play in America are suddenly went out the window and it became about Vegas line movement.  So again, who's shifting the goalposts here?

PS You know what else Vegas moves its line for?  MONEY!

[Not A Serious Person]

NET hasn't been updated since their loss.  That being said, despite their total number of losses, they have yet to lose a game by more than 7 points, and I don't think they'll get punished too much by losing by 4 at the 22nd ranked NET team.  Even with a loss Saturday, unless its a blowout, I would guess that they're still top 25 NET next week.

Do we have an extra "No Bad Losses" banner we can send them?

[Lennys Tap]

Yup, never shifted any goalposts lol.  That was you big guy.  You used win-loss record to "prove" how IU wasn't one of the toughest places in America to play, then when you "scientifically proved" that Hawaii, Denver, and LSU were the 3 toughest places in America to play and their home win-loss record was thrown back at you, suddenly win-loss record as a way to prove (or disprove) where the toughest places to play in America are suddenly went out the window and it became about Vegas line movement.  So again, who's shifting the goalposts here?

PS You know what else Vegas moves its line for?  MONEY!

So typical, so wrong, so sad.

What were the facts again that led you to your verifiably wrong conclusions on these subjects?

[MU82]

Fair or not, whether its an accurate measurement of a teams quality or not, that's how all of the advanced stats are these days.  If they do finish with that record and NET ranking, it would mean that they will lose quite a few more close games/heart-breakers.  I'm okay with that.

So maybe we can have our cake and eat it too here.

Wisconsin can keep losing close games, which will make most of us very happy, but their NET rating will stay OK and will actually help our seeding even if F%cky ends up with a losing record?

I'm lovin' that!

F%cky is toast. Competitive but not good enough this year, Happ-less next season, second fiddle in the state to Marquette for the next decade or more, as it was meant to be!

[wadesworld]

So typical, so wrong, so sad.

What were the facts again that led you to your verifiably wrong conclusions on these subjects?

What's typical or wrong?  When I said IU was a top 3 toughest place to win did you not site their home win-loss record last year to "disprove" this?  Then you got super excited that KenPom's Home Court Advantage rankings SCIENTIFICALLY PROVED that Hawaii, Denver, and LSU were the toughest home courts (LOL!), so what did I do?  Oh yeah, I threw back their home win-loss record at you, the EXACT SAME method you used to "disprove" IU was a top 3 toughest place to win in America.  And guess what?  Suddenly home win-loss record meant absolutely nothing because hey, science proved it was Hawaii, Denver, and LSU!  LOL!

So again I'll ask, who's shifting goalposts?

[Its DJOver]

So maybe we can have our cake and eat it too here.

Wisconsin can keep losing close games, which will make most of us very happy, but their NET rating will stay OK and will actually help our seeding even if F%cky ends up with a losing record?

I'm lovin' that!

F%cky is toast. Competitive but not good enough this year, Happ-less next season, second fiddle in the state to Marquette for the next decade or more, as it was meant to be!

I don't know the exact math behind it (no one does), but if they finish sub .500 with an NET in the top 25, they would also have to have some blowout wins.  They play Penn St, Northwestern, and Illinois a combined 5 more times, and all of those would likely have to be 25+ point wins.  That would help their efficiency numbers, without actually doing anything for their resume other than avoiding bad losses (PSt, NW, ILL have a combined 1 B14 win which resulted from NW beating ILL).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Just to add some information to Wade and Lenny's debate.

KenPom does NOT rank Hawaii as the #1 home court advantage. He ranks them as the 244th. The #1 Hawaii ranking from what I can tell comes from a 2014 side project KenPom did where he compared his home court advantage ratings to what how much Vegas lines adjust. Hawaii was #1 in the Vegas model.

KenPom himself does home court advantage rankings where he rates home courts based on few different factors including point differentials, foul differentials, and elevation of the home stadium. He only uses data from the past 60 games to come up with the rankings.

His current top 5 are:

Colorado (makes sense with elevation being a factor)
Iowa State (I've heard that's a tough place to play)
Louisiana Tech (???)
Arkansas (I've been to a game there, it was a ghost town)
Air Force (makes sense with elevation)

KenPom currently ranks Indiana as #90, Denver as #79, and LSU as #46.

And just for fun, Marquette is currently ranked #83, 2nd in the Big East. The top home court advantage in the Big East is the Cintas Center at #53. The worst is DePaul so that at least seems accurate.

[MU82]

Just to add some information to Wade and Lenny's debate.

KenPom does NOT rank Hawaii as the #1 home court advantage. He ranks them as the 244th. The #1 Hawaii ranking from what I can tell comes from a 2014 side project KenPom did where he compared his home court advantage ratings to what how much Vegas lines adjust. Hawaii was #1 in the Vegas model.

KenPom himself does home court advantage rankings where he rates home courts based on few different factors including point differentials, foul differentials, and elevation of the home stadium. He only uses data from the past 60 games to come up with the rankings.

His current top 5 are:

Colorado (makes sense with elevation being a factor)
Iowa State (I've heard that's a tough place to play)
Louisiana Tech (???)
Arkansas (I've been to a game there, it was a ghost town)
Air Force (makes sense with elevation)

KenPom currently ranks Indiana as #90, Denver as #79, and LSU as #46.

And just for fun, Marquette is currently ranked #83, 2nd in the Big East. The top home court advantage in the Big East is the Cintas Center at #53. The worst is DePaul so that at least seems accurate.

Interesting, TAMU.

Where's Kohl ranked?

As for the Lenny-wades heavyweight fight, I will agree with Lenny that it's always amazing how much better a team's homecourt advantage is when the team is actually good.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Kohl Hole is ranked 132nd. Look at that, not all KenPom metrics favor Wisconsin!

[wadesworld]

Just to add some information to Wade and Lenny's debate.

KenPom does NOT rank Hawaii as the #1 home court advantage. He ranks them as the 244th. The #1 Hawaii ranking from what I can tell comes from a 2014 side project KenPom did where he compared his home court advantage ratings to what how much Vegas lines adjust. Hawaii was #1 in the Vegas model.

KenPom himself does home court advantage rankings where he rates home courts based on few different factors including point differentials, foul differentials, and elevation of the home stadium. He only uses data from the past 60 games to come up with the rankings.

His current top 5 are:

Colorado (makes sense with elevation being a factor)
Iowa State (I've heard that's a tough place to play)
Louisiana Tech (???)
Arkansas (I've been to a game there, it was a ghost town)
Air Force (makes sense with elevation)

KenPom currently ranks Indiana as #90, Denver as #79, and LSU as #46.

And just for fun, Marquette is currently ranked #83, 2nd in the Big East. The top home court advantage in the Big East is the Cintas Center at #53. The worst is DePaul so that at least seems accurate.

Got it, thanks for the further information.

Looks to me like science is all over the place here, but you can't argue with science so I'm wrong.

[warriorchick]

And just for fun, Marquette is currently ranked #83, 2nd in the Big East. The top home court advantage in the Big East is the Cintas Center at #53. The worst is DePaul so that at least seems accurate.

Except when it comes to MU (and that includes the women's team).  Collectively, I believe we are currently 1-2 in the WinTrust.

Speaking of that, we need to come up with a good nickname for that place.  LoseTrust?  Win-Truss?  Help me out here.

[Silkk the Shaka]

So maybe we can have our cake and eat it too here.

Wisconsin can keep losing close games, which will make most of us very happy, but their NET rating will stay OK and will actually help our seeding even if F%cky ends up with a losing record?

I'm lovin' that!

F%cky is toast. Competitive but not good enough this year, Happ-less next season, second fiddle in the state to Marquette for the next decade or more, as it was meant to be!

Best case scenario right there

[JakeBarnes]

Except when it comes to MU (and that includes the women's team).  Collectively, I believe we are currently 1-2 in the WinTrust.

Speaking of that, we need to come up with a good nickname for that place.  LoseTrust?  Win-Truss?  Help me out here.

I like LoseTrust.

Speaking of, what's the roll call for the @DePaul game? I will be there, assuming I don't have anything that keeps me in the office late.

[Cheeks]

Just to add some information to Wade and Lenny's debate.

KenPom does NOT rank Hawaii as the #1 home court advantage. He ranks them as the 244th. The #1 Hawaii ranking from what I can tell comes from a 2014 side project KenPom did where he compared his home court advantage ratings to what how much Vegas lines adjust. Hawaii was #1 in the Vegas model.

KenPom himself does home court advantage rankings where he rates home courts based on few different factors including point differentials, foul differentials, and elevation of the home stadium. He only uses data from the past 60 games to come up with the rankings.

His current top 5 are:

Colorado (makes sense with elevation being a factor)
Iowa State (I've heard that's a tough place to play)
Louisiana Tech (???)
Arkansas (I've been to a game there, it was a ghost town)
Air Force (makes sense with elevation)

KenPom currently ranks Indiana as #90, Denver as #79, and LSU as #46.

And just for fun, Marquette is currently ranked #83, 2nd in the Big East. The top home court advantage in the Big East is the Cintas Center at #53. The worst is DePaul so that at least seems accurate.

Correct, and the Vegas model is for crap since betting lines are meant to get people to bet.  Using that as the anchor is strange.

[Cheeks]

So maybe we can have our cake and eat it too here.

Wisconsin can keep losing close games, which will make most of us very happy, but their NET rating will stay OK and will actually help our seeding even if F%cky ends up with a losing record?

I'm lovin' that!

F%cky is toast. Competitive but not good enough this year, Happ-less next season, second fiddle in the state to Marquette for the next decade or more, as it was meant to be!

Next decade or more?  College basketball fortunes can change much quicker than that.  We’ll see.  Hope you are right, don’t think you are.

If we have the run they did, we will all be ecstatic.

[Lennys Tap]

Correct, and the Vegas model is for crap since betting lines are meant to get people to bet.  Using that as the anchor is strange.

??? No. People want to bet. Vegas sets lines so that they can. People also think they're smarter than the guys who set the lines. They're not.

[Not A Serious Person]

If Bucky loses enough games, can they snag a #1 seed in the tournament?

[MU82]

If we have the run they did, we will all be ecstatic.

Nah ... we'll actually win the title.

F%cky = toast.

[Pakuni]

??? No. People want to bet. Vegas sets lines so that they can. People also think they're smarter than the guys who set the lines. They're not.

Well, you're both right/wrong.
Vegas sets lines in an effort to balance as equally as possible the amount of money bet each way. That's all they care about.

[Bad_Reporter]

Hillbilly gets run out of the gym.  Lost by 21.