Opponents not looking great of late

[brewcity77]

Buffalo comes from behind to beat upset minded Western Michigan.

[Lennys Tap]

Vegas sets lines in an effort to balance as equally as possible the amount of money bet each way. That's all they care about.

Actually you're wrong. Vegas sets the line based on teams' power ratings, value of home court/field, injuries and other quantifiable information. The data they use has zero to do with finding a line they think will produce equal action. If the public think their line is inaccurate they welcome the one sided betting. More often than not the public is wrong.

[tower912]

Done worrying about teams MU beat a month ago.     Who's next?

[Cheeks]

Actually you're wrong. Vegas sets the line based on teams' power ratings, value of home court/field, injuries and other quantifiable information. The data they use has zero to do with finding a line they think will produce equal action. If the public think their line is inaccurate they welcome the one sided betting. More often than not the public is wrong.

Sorry, I’m going with Pakuni on this especially after comments the sports gambling establishment have made the last 18 months around nation wide sports gambling.  Sure they use analytics like crazy, but the lines are ultimately set to get equal cash against both sides because the house makes their money that way.  All you have to do is listen to what the purpose of the line is.  No one is doubting the data they use to get their, but they will flat out tell you they build into the spread fan loyalty, etc that move the lines.  As an example,  Cowboys, Packers fans and others bet more on their teams out of loyalty that push the numbers and has nothing to do if analytically they are going to win or not. 

[muwarrior69]

Actually you're wrong. Vegas sets the line based on teams' power ratings, value of home court/field, injuries and other quantifiable information. The data they use has zero to do with finding a line they think will produce equal action. If the public think their line is inaccurate they welcome the one sided betting. More often than not the public is wrong.

So Vegas knew Markus would not play?

[cheebs09]

Hillbilly gets run out of the gym.  Lost by 21.

It’s incredibly difficult to get run out of the gym by Virginia.

[rocky_warrior]

It’s incredibly difficult to get run out of the gym by Virginia.

Not too make this a VA thread, but if they can somehow avoid losing @ Duke on Sat (kenpom 2pt dogs) they'd be favored for every game the rest of the way. 

Undefeated regular season? Unlikely, but possible.

[PGsHeroes32]

Kstate looking great

OU with a couple guys that rival the worst free throw shooters in the country.

[BM1090]

Louisville and Presbyterian also up double digits

[JakeBarnes]

Kstate looking great

OU with a couple guys that rival the worst free throw shooters in the country.

Kstate dominated OU. I feel in a week or so we see them ranked again.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Wow. Kansas State with back to back road ranked wins. Iowa State & Oklahoma.

I was wondering if they would be a NIT team weeks ago. Lost at Tulsa. Beat George Mason by one.. Huge comeback to just beat WVU. Struggled vs Georgia State. Lost by 20 at home to Texas.

[LoudMouth]

Wow. Kansas State with back to back road ranked wins. Iowa State & Oklahoma.

I was wondering if they would be a NIT team weeks ago. Lost at Tulsa. Beat George Mason by one.. Huge comeback to just beat WVU. Struggled vs Georgia State. Lost by 20 at home to Texas.

The difference Dean Wade can make...kid is good

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Great wins for K State tough to win on the road. Not to put a damper on it,  but I have thought both Iowa state and Oklahoma were not as good as their rankings

[PGsHeroes32]

Great wins for K State tough to win on the road. Not to put a damper on it,  but I have thought both Iowa state and Oklahoma were not as good as their rankings

Iowa State about to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock(tho they are probably overrated too)

I do agree about OU tho. Solid but not very special.

[Lennys Tap]

Sorry, I’m going with Pakuni on this especially after comments the sports gambling establishment have made the last 18 months around nation wide sports gambling.  Sure they use analytics like crazy, but the lines are ultimately set to get equal cash against both sides because the house makes their money that way.  All you have to do is listen to what the purpose of the line is.  No one is doubting the data they use to get their, but they will flat out tell you they build into the spread fan loyalty, etc that move the lines.  As an example,  Cowboys, Packers fans and others bet more on their teams out of loyalty that push the numbers and has nothing to do if analytically they are going to win or not.

You're wrong.

[Cheeks]

You're wrong.

Nope.  In fact I am repeating what the leaders in the industry expressed.  Sports gambling is a hot topic the last few years, a ton of work has been done by those that broadcast and deliver sports to the general public. 

If you want to call them wrong, that is your choice but is a poor one.

[Cheeks]

You're wrong.

“When oddsmakers create betting lines, the goal is simple: To get people to wager on both teams equally. They want just as many bets to be placed on Team A as Team B. Now, we know what you're thinking: Doesn't that mean that they just end up breaking even? No, they don't, and it's because of the "vig" (also known as the "juice") that's attached to each and every bet that a sportsbook takes.”



“Before you can understand why lines move, you need to understand what is going on behind the scenes. Sportsbooks are not charities. They are companies designed to make a lot of money by offering betting action on sports competitions. You probably already knew this. Here's something you might not know: even though the sportsbooks are offering bets to you, they don't like to gamble at all. Their goal is to try to guarantee that they are going to make money on every single bet they offer.

How do they do this? What the sportsbook tries to do is get the exact same amount of money on both sides of a contest. If they get $10 total bet on Team A and $10 total bet on Team B, then no matter who wins, they can use the losing money to pay the winners. If Team A wins, they take the $10 from the Team B losers and pay the Team A winners. If Team B wins, they do the same thing, but in reverse.”

[Not A Serious Person]

Nope.  In fact I am repeating what the leaders in the industry expressed.  Sports gambling is a hot topic the last few years, a ton of work has been done by those that broadcast and deliver sports to the general public. 

If you want to call them wrong, that is your choice but is a poor one.

Chicos example immediately is way out of date.  It does not work this way anymore.

Sports gambling is an ultra-competitive cutthroat business.  Even more so now that they have to compete with online sites.

So the casino's set the lines so close that the House usually covers some of the favorite bet. They have to do it because betting lines are like gas prices. 

Ever seen an $80k BMW making a left in heavy traffic to a gas station that is two cents a gallon lower than the one that is an easy right on the other side of the street?  On 20 gallons it is a 40 cent savings.  We are hard-wired to the point of irrationality go for the lowest price so matter what the cost-benefit says.

Same with a betting line.  Make your line 6 points and when the casino down the street goes to 5.5 points and you lose 90% of your business.  So they constantly shave the lines closer and closer until the House has money on the line.  The days of balancing the book are long gone.

Typically the house bets the favorite.  That is why when we have big upsets we also have these stories ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/gamblers-lost-a-lot-of-money-on-those-march-madness-upsets.html

Thursday was a “great day for sports books overall,” said Lou Moretti, managing editor of SportsbookReview.com. But not all of them: “One sportsbook confirmed being down $250,000 going into the night slate of games because of parlay winnings paid on the Georgia State vs. Baylor game.”

Most of the bets were on point spreads, but the University of Alabama at Birmingham vs. Iowa State game stood out for the dollar amounts, Moretti said. Because so many people thought Iowa State was a Final Four contender, they couldn’t see a loss like this coming. Bettors “got crushed on the Iowa State moneyline across the board with total losses over $2 million,” he said.

Nevada sports books lose $10M on Sunday’s NFL games
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/nevada-sports-books-lose-10m-on-sundays-nfl-games-1519488/

[Not A Serious Person]

Incidentally, for the HIPPA nerds ...

Want to know who is employing greasy haired Vinnie hanging around the AL to get the inside story on Markus status for Sunday?  The sports books are they will have money on the favorite (MU).  So Wojo only has himself to blame if shady characters on walking around or near the AL. 

The control freak nature of coaches keeping this info private is a problem.  Why do you think the NBA and NFL require this to be public?  Because they are nice guys?  No, it is to keep Vinnie far away from them.

[Lennys Tap]

“When oddsmakers create betting lines, the goal is simple: To get people to wager on both teams equally. They want just as many bets to be placed on Team A as Team B. Now, we know what you're thinking: Doesn't that mean that they just end up breaking even? No, they don't, and it's because of the "vig" (also known as the "juice") that's attached to each and every bet that a sportsbook takes.”



“Before you can understand why lines move, you need to understand what is going on behind the scenes. Sportsbooks are not charities. They are companies designed to make a lot of money by offering betting action on sports competitions. You probably already knew this. Here's something you might not know: even though the sportsbooks are offering bets to you, they don't like to gamble at all. Their goal is to try to guarantee that they are going to make money on every single bet they offer.

How do they do this? What the sportsbook tries to do is get the exact same amount of money on both sides of a contest. If they get $10 total bet on Team A and $10 total bet on Team B, then no matter who wins, they can use the losing money to pay the winners. If Team A wins, they take the $10 from the Team B losers and pay the Team A winners. If Team B wins, they do the same thing, but in reverse.”

"You're still wrong" and so is whomever you're "quoting". Analytics rule the day, not how many people root for the Cowboys or the Packers. Do the Cowboys and Packers consistently underperform against the line? They would in your scenario. And of course the professional gamblers would then smell easy money and overwhelm the bookies with money bet on the correct side.

Now on season long bets (that are already sucker bets) like odds to win a division or the Super Bowl Vegas will be even more unfair to the "popular" teams - because they can. But on individual games the numbers speak for themselves and Vegas plays it straight. They'll win at least as many games that aren't evenly bet as they'll lose - probably more, because people who are smart do better than those who think they are.

[Lennys Tap]

Chicos example immediately is way out of date.  It does not work this way anymore.

Sports gambling is an ultra-competitive cutthroat business.  Even more so now that they have to compete with online sites.

So the casino's set the lines so close that the House usually covers some of the favorite bet. They have to do it because betting lines are like gas prices. 

Ever seen an $80k BMW making a left in heavy traffic to a gas station that is two cents a gallon lower than the one that is an easy right on the other side of the street?  On 20 gallons it is a 40 cent savings.  We are hard-wired to the point of irrationality go for the lowest price so matter what the cost-benefit says.

Same with a betting line.  Make your line 6 points and when the casino down the street goes to 5.5 points and you lose 90% of your business.  So they constantly shave the lines closer and closer until the House has money on the line.  The days of balancing the book are long gone.

Typically the house bets the favorite.  That is why when we have big upsets we also have these stories ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/gamblers-lost-a-lot-of-money-on-those-march-madness-upsets.html

Thursday was a “great day for sports books overall,” said Lou Moretti, managing editor of SportsbookReview.com. But not all of them: “One sportsbook confirmed being down $250,000 going into the night slate of games because of parlay winnings paid on the Georgia State vs. Baylor game.”

Most of the bets were on point spreads, but the University of Alabama at Birmingham vs. Iowa State game stood out for the dollar amounts, Moretti said. Because so many people thought Iowa State was a Final Four contender, they couldn’t see a loss like this coming. Bettors “got crushed on the Iowa State moneyline across the board with total losses over $2 million,” he said.

Nevada sports books lose $10M on Sunday’s NFL games
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/nevada-sports-books-lose-10m-on-sundays-nfl-games-1519488/

You get it. It's gambling. Given the 11-10 vig EVENTUALLY casinos grind bettors down if their numbers are good. And they are. They are not going to substitute bad numbers for good ones HOPING to get equal money on both sides. That would be suicide.

[Not A Serious Person]

You get it. It's gambling. Given the 11-10 vig EVENTUALLY casinos grind bettors down if their numbers are good. And they are. They are not going to substitute bad numbers for good ones HOPING to get equal money on both sides. That would be suicide.

Most of the time they win way more than they lose.  Then #16 UMBC beats #1 Virginia loses and you can hear the primal scream of anguish coming from Vegas.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Great wins for K State tough to win on the road. Not to put a damper on it,  but I have thought both Iowa state and Oklahoma were not as good as their rankings

Iowa state just won at texas tech

[Pakuni]

Actually you're wrong. Vegas sets the line based on teams' power ratings, value of home court/field, injuries and other quantifiable information. The data they use has zero to do with finding a line they think will produce equal action. If the public think their line is inaccurate they welcome the one sided betting. More often than not the public is wrong.

I'm not going to argue on and on about this or play Heisy Copypasta, but this just isn't true. The house fears one-sided betting because it exposes them to big losses, and if the house didn't care about equal action, it wouldn't bother adjusting the spread based on the bets they're getting.
Fin.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Iowa state just won at texas tech

Speaking of paper tigers....

Good for the Cyclones. Tough to win on the road. Don't think Texas Tech is as good as their record either.