MUScoop

Any thoughts on how Sweden is dealing with COVID?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000)



https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying)

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on April 17, 2020, 11:25:16 AM
Any thoughts on how Sweden is dealing with COVID?

If their goal is for people to die quicker, it's good

Nanny state health care.    Many single person households.   Relatively healthy populous.    A gamble, to be sure.    But if you have a population lacking co-morbitities as well as a well funded, staffed, and efficient health care system, maybe.     But that model does not exist in America.   

It's strange that they mention overall population density.  The only reason they have less density is because it is a big country with a lot of wilderness.  Where most of the people live is just as dense as most other European cities.

Quote from: tower912 on April 17, 2020, 11:36:37 AM
Nanny state health care.    Many single person households.   Relatively healthy populous.    A gamble, to be sure.    But if you have a population lacking co-morbitities as well as a well funded, staffed, and efficient health care system, maybe.     But that model does not exist in America.

Which model?

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 17, 2020, 11:57:30 AM
It's strange that they mention overall population density.  The only reason they have less density is because it is a big country with a lot of wilderness.  Where most of the people live is just as dense as most other European cities.

No it's not. There are only 3 or 4 cities in Sweden that are larger than the greater Racine area.

Quote from: Jockey on April 17, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
No it's not. There are only 3 or 4 cities in Sweden that are larger than the greater Racine area.

I said "dense." 

Quote from: jesmu84 on April 17, 2020, 01:27:43 PM
Which model?

Any of it. 

In term of per capita deaths, they are not exactly killing it (no pun intended):

Sweden deaths per 100,000 in population: 14
Norway deaths per 100,000 in population:  3  (a lot of similarities between Norway & Sweden, but not in COVID deaths)

Quote from: MarquetteDano on April 17, 2020, 03:47:10 PM
In term of per capita deaths, they are not exactly killing it (no pun intended):

Sweden deaths per 100,000 in population: 14
Norway deaths per 100,000 in population:  3  (a lot of similarities between Norway & Sweden, but not in COVID deaths)

Norway has also ran 4x as many tests per capita as Sweden. Sweden's numbers are then likely under-reported.

Quote from: jesmu84 on April 17, 2020, 01:27:43 PM
Which model?

Elin Nordegren? Great 9-iron, sources say.

Quote from: tower912 on April 17, 2020, 03:14:26 PM
Any of it.

I thought our healthcare system was the best in the world? And universal healthcare was a terrible idea?

Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 12:00:21 PM
Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

"But Sweden's 1,937 deaths is far higher in number and proportionally to Denmark's 370 and Finland's 141."

That's a lot of "pain."

An interview with another Swedish epidemiologist who believes stay home orders do not work and not evidence-based. It will be fascinating when all is said and done as the world reviews the approaches taken, what worked, what did not, why an action worked in one place but not another (democracy, geography, discipline).  I don't know if what Sweden is doing is right, but they have been criticized for their approach.  Maybe they have it right?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 12:00:21 PM
Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

So, on the same day Tengell gave this interview (praising his own policy), 545 new cases were reported in Sweden. That's up 39 percent from the previous day's 392. 185 additional deaths were reported as well. the largest number since the outbreak began.
Could be a one-day anomaly, could be him spiking the ball on the 5 yard line.

But given that no one has any idea whether herd immunity is a sure thing with this virus, or how long it lasts, let's hope for Sweden's sake this isn't a "Mission Accomplished" moment.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 12:12:14 PM
An interview with another Swedish epidemiologist who believes stay home orders do not work and not evidence-based. It will be fascinating when all is said and done as the world reviews the approaches taken, what worked, what did not, why an action worked in one place but not another (democracy, geography, discipline).  I don't know if what Sweden is doing is right, but they have been criticized for their approach.  Maybe they have it right?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

"Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people."

Provably false.

Quote from: jesmu84 on April 17, 2020, 05:28:41 PM
I thought our healthcare system was the best in the world? And universal healthcare was a terrible idea?

Yeah, the universal healthcare systems in the UK, Italy and Spain are certainly the envy of the world.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 12:00:21 PM
Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

Well, I'm not sure I trust Tegnell's "science" - in the article you linked,

QuoteTegnell said he was "fairly confident" in the strategy his agency had pursued but said it would be too early for the Swedish government to lift restrictions imposed to delay the spread of the virus. "A big part of the country has not been affected at all yet."

But on March 5th - he also thought they had reached their maximum.

QuoteAnders Tegnell, Sweden's top epidemiologist, has been under increasing pressure. On March 5, he said that the spread of the epidemic had probably reached its maximum. At the time, only 94 people were infected in the country, a figure that has since shot into the thousands.

To the utter consternation of many Swedes — including former Prime Minister Carl Bildt — Tegnell said in a TV interview on March 18 that it was safe for people who live in the same household as an infected person to continue going to work or to school.

It's still a dangerous experiment - we'll see.  Also note, they do have some restrictions....

QuoteSweden's government has advocated working from home if at all possible and to avoid nonessential travel and social contact with the elderly. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have been offering seated table service only, and gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned.

I'd have to say any analysis of strategy is premature until we know how broad the infection & immunity is. 

This summation of the interview declared 20% infection rates based on anti-body.  So they need to at least triple this right? 

It wouldnt shock me if NY is at 20% and the hospital system was pushed to the brink. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

Quote from: buckchuckler on April 22, 2020, 12:20:21 PM
Yeah, the universal healthcare systems in the UK, Italy and Spain are certainly the envy of the world.

Actually Italy's is considered pretty good. The problem they had was it hit them early. Germany's is real good too. 

I would also point out that Stockholm (metro) is only about 25% of the country.  So this really seems like a thin conclusion as of yet (20% of Stockholm has Covid and therefore best path)

Couple of things.

It's way too early to judge Sweden's policy.  Give it a month and we will know if they had a good plan.

It would be foolish to compare Sweden to the US, density, comorbidities, etc.

I wonder if we will not even know whether Sweden's technique is better in a few months?  We might need a full year, assuming a second wave hits.  Maybe they get clobbered now and then are better prepared for the second wave?

Compared to their neighbors (which is the best comparison given locale, wealth, culture, similar health care, etc.) they are not doing well.  Compared to the US,  they are doing about the same.

Stockholm is as dense (or denser) than much of the USA. Their plan (protect the most vulnerable, get to herd immunity ASAP) will save their economy and likely save lives. In areas where our health care providers aren't in danger of being overwhelmed it is the 'least bad" plan I've seen. My guess is other countries will follow.

Quote from: MarquetteDano on April 22, 2020, 01:26:03 PM
I wonder if we will not even know whether Sweden's technique is better in a few months?  We might need a full year, assuming a second wave hits.  Maybe they get clobbered now and then are better prepared for the second wave?

Compared to their neighbors (which is the best comparison given locale, wealth, culture, similar health care, etc.) they are not doing well.  Compared to the US,  they are doing about the same.

Doesn't herd immunity mean no second wave. Or waiting (hoping) for a vaccine that may never come?

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 01:28:53 PM
Stockholm is as dense (or denser) than much of the USA. Their plan (protect the most vulnerable, get to herd immunity ASAP) will save their economy and likely save lives. In areas where our health care providers aren't in danger of being overwhelmed it is the 'least bad" plan I've seen. My guess is other countries will follow.

How is saving or will it save lives?
So far, it's costing lives at many times the rate of its similarly situated neighbors.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 01:32:01 PM
Doesn't herd immunity mean no second wave. Or waiting (hoping) for a vaccine that may never come?

This was always discussed as a possible way to deal with the disease. 

Their method is putting all of their faith in the hope that there is such a thing as natural herd immunity.  If there isn't such a thing, they've made a very reckless decision, and it will cost far more lives.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 22, 2020, 01:37:05 PM
How is saving or will it save lives?
So far, it's costing lives at many times the rate of its similarly situated neighbors.
(And punch yourself in the face if you feel tempted to say any variation of "people will kill themselves.")

They'll lose more in the short run while developing herd immunity. But once it's done, it's done. No second wave, no trying to protect the most vulnerable for periods that extend for what, years? (Which will be impossible) And even if lives aren't saved, which is preferable - 100,000 deaths in 6 months with a damaged economy or 100,000 deaths over 2 years with a destroyed one.

There are no perfect solutions. This is awful - people will die, futures will be ruined. In a war you have to practice triage - make difficult decisions. The enemy is not going away. Retreating while we made sure our health care system wouldn't be overwhelmed made sense. I think that time has passed. Sweden's plan makes sense to me.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 02:06:56 PM
They'll lose more in the short run while developing herd immunity. But once it's done, it's done. No second wave, no trying to protect the most vulnerable for periods that extend for what, years? (Which will be impossible) And even if lives aren't saved, which is preferable - 100,000 deaths in 6 months with a damaged economy or 100,000 deaths over 2 years with a destroyed one.

If these were the only two choices, you may have a point.  But they aren't.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 02:06:56 PM
They'll lose more in the short run while developing herd immunity. But once it's done, it's done. No second wave, no trying to protect the most vulnerable for periods that extend for what, years? (Which will be impossible) And even if lives aren't saved, which is preferable - 100,000 deaths in 6 months with a damaged economy or 100,000 deaths over 2 years with a destroyed one.

There are no perfect solutions. This is awful - people will die, futures will be ruined. In a war you have to practice triage - make difficult decisions. The enemy is not going away. Retreating while we made sure our health care system wouldn't be overwhelmed made sense. I think that time has passed. Sweden's plan makes sense to me.

Yeah, there are a lot of assumptions being made here.  War is fought with the information on the ground.  And we have a total lack of information because we do not have adequate testing.  Sweden's plan makes sense because it seems like it could work... all things being equal.  But they aren't.  The US is larger, unhealthier country.  What would have happened in Italy without a lockdown?  What about China?  Applying Sweden as a model for all countries would be reckless given the information that we have.

We need more time.  Time for testing and planning.  The economy will recover.  It will certainly be different, but this isn't the first time that humanity has been turned upside down by this sort of thing... and yet, here we stand.

The US is testing more people per capita than Sweden is.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on April 22, 2020, 01:50:08 PM
This was always discussed as a possible way to deal with the disease. 

Their method is putting all of their faith in the hope that there is such a thing as natural herd immunity.  If there isn't such a thing, they've made a very reckless decision, and it will cost far more lives.

I'd rather put my faith in something that has worked against viruses (herd immunity) than wait for a vaccine. Something, btw, that has NEVER been successfully developed for a Corona virus.

I think the rope a dope, pull the covers over your head and hope strategy is the reckless one for people's health (physical and mental) and our economy's survival. So I respectfully disagree with your opinion.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 22, 2020, 02:09:13 PM

If these were the only two choices, you may have a point.  But they aren't.

Fair enough, Fluff. I'm OK with tweaks to the Swedish plan, especially to suit our populace better.  Still, Sweden's core solution (IMO) is the most logical I've seen. On Scoop or elsewhere.

Time will tell.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 02:06:56 PM
They'll lose more in the short run while developing herd immunity. But once it's done, it's done. No second wave, no trying to protect the most vulnerable for periods that extend for what, years? (Which will be impossible) And even if lives aren't saved, which is preferable - 100,000 deaths in 6 months with a damaged economy or 100,000 deaths over 2 years with a destroyed one.

Besides Fluffy's point about these not being the only options, you (and Sweden) seem to be taking a massive leap of faith that effective herd immunity without an accompanying vaccine is a foregone conclusion and there won't be a second wave.
This is something that the vast majority of the scientific community says is impossible to know at this point, which is why they're not supporting this approach.
What makes you more confident than they are?

Also, scientists say any chance of herd immunity with COVID-19 would require an infection rate of at least 70%. Even at the lower end of the mortality rate - let's say 0.15% - that's nearly a half million dead in this country, many times more than current projections (which, admittedly, are shaky at best).
Is that acceptable for a gamble on the effectiveness of herd immunity?

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 02:22:33 PM
I'd rather put my faith in something that has worked against viruses (herd immunity) than wait for a vaccine. Something, btw, that has NEVER been successfully developed for a Corona virus.

I think the rope a dope, pull the covers over your head and hope strategy is the reckless one for people's health (physical and mental) and our economy's survival. So I respectfully disagree with your opinion.

The common cold a lot of people get on a yearly basis is a coronavirus that has no vaccine and there is no herd immunity.

Lenny, I think you make a legitimate argument worth contemplating.  And I would be lying if I said I haven't pondered it.    But as I posted earlier, Sweden has one the most thorough and effective government run health care systems in the world.   They have a lower percentage of the population with co morbidities.  They have few dense population centers.  And with all that they have a higher death rate than their neighbors.   They are banking on the theory of herd immunity for the long run.

If the USA had done the same, the original death estimates likely would have come to fruition.   In hopes that herd immunity would kick in.    Quite a gamble.  I'm not ready to make the same leap you are.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 02:22:33 PM
I'd rather put my faith in something that has worked against viruses (herd immunity) than wait for a vaccine. Something, btw, that has NEVER been successfully developed for a Corona virus.

I think the rope a dope, pull the covers over your head and hope strategy is the reckless one for people's health (physical and mental) and our economy's survival. So I respectfully disagree with your opinion.

We don't need to wax poetic.  NYC basically executed on the Sweden plan (except with no restrictions -- so herd immunity quicker!)....What we need to know is how many people have been infected in that area and are they immune.  It nearly broke the health system and would have had they not locked it down.

Just curious, do people believe Sweden's numbers. If so, what are the metrics one uses in determining which nation they trust numbers from, and which they do not?

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 02:06:56 PM
They'll lose more in the short run while developing herd immunity. But once it's done, it's done. No second wave, no trying to protect the most vulnerable for periods that extend for what, years? (Which will be impossible) And even if lives aren't saved, which is preferable - 100,000 deaths in 6 months with a damaged economy or 100,000 deaths over 2 years with a destroyed one.

There are no perfect solutions. This is awful - people will die, futures will be ruined. In a war you have to practice triage - make difficult decisions. The enemy is not going away. Retreating while we made sure our health care system wouldn't be overwhelmed made sense. I think that time has passed. Sweden's plan makes sense to me.

I wonder if some way we will end up going with the Sweden model at a state level?  Georgia plans to open up soon.  As I mentioned in another thread,  you have the CDC right in the backyard so they can try to test and contact trace.  We could see how it turns out?

Quote from: tower912 on April 22, 2020, 02:45:52 PM
Lenny, I think you make a legitimate argument worth contemplating.  And I would be lying if I said I haven't pondered it.    But as I posted earlier, Sweden has one the most thorough and effective government run health care systems in the world.   They have a lower percentage of the population with co morbidities.  They have few dense population centers.  And with all that they have a higher death rate than their neighbors.   They are banking on the theory of herd immunity for the long run.

If the USA had done the same, the original death estimates likely would have come to fruition.   In hopes that herd immunity would kick in.    Quite a gamble.  I'm not ready to make the same leap you are.

Tower, I acknowledge that we're not Sweden but we're not all New York City either. We're now discovering that California's first infection (LA, I think) was in early February. They had no restrictions for a long time thereafter and still never became NYC.

Sweden has a higher death rate than their neighbors right now. If their plan works I don't think it will be higher down the road. And their war will be over when others worry about second waves, next year's flu season, etc. And their economy won't be destroyed. I'm not saying Sweden's plan is a panacea or that it fit every situation in the USA. Only that where it's feasible it appears the best of a lot of bad options.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on April 22, 2020, 02:33:35 PM
The common cold a lot of people get on a yearly basis is a coronavirus that has no vaccine and there is no herd immunity.

True, but I haven't heard any evidence that suggests that will be the case with Covid19. Please provide if there is.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 03:48:14 PM
Tower, I acknowledge that we're not Sweden but we're not all New York City either. We're now discovering that California's first infection (LA, I think) was in early February. They had no restrictions for a long time thereafter and still never became NYC.

Here in Connecticut, my daughter's tell me that one of their friends (and also the friends younger brother) believe they had Coronavirus in mid-February.  Both had a respiratory illness, hard to breath, low grade fever and no nose blowing.  Lasted about 2 weeks.  Their doctor gave a flu test which came back negative. 

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 22, 2020, 12:04:09 PM

"But Sweden's 1,937 deaths is far higher in number and proportionally to Denmark's 370 and Finland's 141."

That's a lot of "pain."

I would like to see that on a per capita basis, not absolute numbers.  Yes, it is more pain, but at what cost.  For instance, if Sweden pulls this off and their numbers drop while Denmark, Finland, and others continue to have deaths while also destroying their way of life that is the pain of a different kind which leads to more deaths (suicides, stress-related illnesses).

Quote from: Pakuni on April 22, 2020, 12:17:37 PM
So, on the same day Tengell gave this interview (praising his own policy), 545 new cases were reported in Sweden. That's up 39 percent from the previous day's 392. 185 additional deaths were reported as well. the largest number since the outbreak began.
Could be a one-day anomaly, could be him spiking the ball on the 5 yard line.

But given that no one has any idea whether herd immunity is a sure thing with this virus, or how long it lasts, let's hope for Sweden's sake this isn't a "Mission Accomplished" moment.

Per capita numbers, please.  These raw numbers are misleading. The age of the population also is important.  I get the sense that some people are going to be upset if what Sweden has tried, worked.  That's the feeling from reading here the last month.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 22, 2020, 12:19:22 PM
"Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people."

Provably false.

Goes to show not all scientists agree with the characterizations, including epidemiologists.  The answer will truly not be known until everyone is tested.  Once that is done, he may well be completely accurate and provably true.  We do not know at this point because we don't know how many people have antibodies and were not impacted negatively in any severe way.  More data is needed.  It may be provably false today based on your opinion and the data we have, but that could change with more data and anaylsis.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 03:51:44 PM
True, but I haven't heard any evidence that suggests that will be the case with Covid19. Please provide if there is.

I'm not sure you're understanding "herd immunity" - it's rare without a vaccine:
https://www.healthline.com/health/herd-immunity
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Or, you're just willing to gamble on it, as is Sweden.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 04:12:11 PM
I get the sense that some people are going to be upset if what Sweden has tried, worked.  That's the feeling from reading here the last month.

Really?  You think people want it to fail.  No, people think it's dangerous.  Please provide ANY proof that it has "worked" at all so far.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 04:12:11 PM

Per capita numbers, please.  These raw numbers are misleading. The age of the population also is important.  I get the sense that some people are going to be upset if what Sweden has tried, worked.  That's the feeling from reading here the last month.

Deaths per M:

Sweden 192
Denmark 66
Norway 34
Finland 27

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Sweden has the equivalent of ~64,000 deaths vs. the U.S. ~47,000 and appears to be accelerating sharply based on the "Death per Day" chart for every country.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 04:12:11 PM

Per capita numbers, please.  These raw numbers are misleading. The age of the population also is important.  I get the sense that some people are going to be upset if what Sweden has tried, worked.  That's the feeling from reading here the last month.

Nobody wants that.  Choose to be smarter than that.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 22, 2020, 04:18:16 PM
Really?  You think people want it to fail.  No, people think it's dangerous.  Please provide ANY proof that it has "worked" at all so far.

Not to mention that we won't know if it works until a possible 2nd wave rolls through. And if there's evidence of long term immunity after infection.

Sweden seems to be a big topic right now. Was this broadcast on any cable news outlets or websites lately?

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 04:14:44 PM
Goes to show not all scientists agree with the characterizations, including epidemiologists. 

The chicosest of arguments.

If there is one person that disagrees, why then, there is no consensus and all arguments are equally valid, right? ::)

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 22, 2020, 04:28:12 PM
The chicosest of arguments.

If there is one person that disagrees, why then, there is no consensus and all arguments are equally valid, right? ::)

(https://media.tenor.com/images/741f92758ba7f0802e572bc4bc184b73/tenor.gif)

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 22, 2020, 04:09:47 PM
I would like to see that on a per capita basis, not absolute numbers.  Yes, it is more pain, but at what cost.  For instance, if Sweden pulls this off and their numbers drop while Denmark, Finland, and others continue to have deaths while also destroying their way of life that is the pain of a different kind which leads to more deaths (suicides, stress-related illnesses).

Sweden = 173.33 deaths per million
Denmark = 63.82
Norway = 34.25
Finland = 25.55

Why do you blithely refer to hundreds, if not thousands, of additional lost lives as "pain" on par with economic hardship and stress?

Quote from: MU Fan in Connecticut on April 22, 2020, 04:09:34 PM
Here in Connecticut, my daughter's tell me that one of their friends (and also the friends younger brother) believe they had Coronavirus in mid-February.  Both had a respiratory illness, hard to breath, low grade fever and no nose blowing.  Lasted about 2 weeks.  Their doctor gave a flu test which came back negative.

My daughter -- who was in DC at the time -- believes she had it in mid-February.  Pretty extreme shortness of breath that lasted a bit more than a week.  I'm skeptical, but maybe I shouldn't be -- it certainly is possible.  No testing of any sort.

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 22, 2020, 04:28:12 PM
The chicosest of arguments.

If there is one person that disagrees, why then, there is no consensus and all arguments are equally valid, right? ::)

500 epidemiologists ...

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 22, 2020, 03:51:44 PM
True, but I haven't heard any evidence that suggests that will be the case with Covid19. Please provide if there is.

In the main coronavirus thread I provided links to the best data out there regarding SARS-like coronaviruses a while back. The bottom line is we do not know. There are some antibodies still circulating in recovered patients from SARS for up to 3-years, at what point that amount of antibodies drops below the threshold to offer protection, we do not know. So an upper bound of some protection for SARS of up to 3 years.

MERS is much different, significant drop-off of antibodies by 3-months. So you might lose any protection in 3-6 months. There is some data to suggest SARS-CoV2 may be more like MERS.

Based on other coronaviruses, we are likely looking at reasonable immunity for up to a year. Dropping of afterwards. What we have to hope is that subsequent infections will be less severe, but we do not know if that will be the case at all yet.

Quote from: tower912 on April 22, 2020, 04:23:56 PM
Nobody wants that.  Choose to be smarter than that.

Chico says "some". Finds 3 people in the entire world (nothing is unanimous due to crazy people) and says "See, I was right!". But not really.

We agree.  Typical passive aggressive trolling with the inevitable hurt lashing out and obscure reference that he that he thinks proves his point but that he hasn't actually read through enough to know it disproves his point.   

The discussion in this thread has ranged from skepticism to hope.    But nobody in this thread is rooting for Sweden to fail.   


We all want the same outcomes.    We want our lives back.     We want treatment, testing, and a vaccine.   

Quote from: tower912 on April 22, 2020, 06:15:00 PM
The discussion in this thread has ranged from skepticism to hope.    But nobody in this thread is rooting for Sweden to fail.   

Right. I believe the Swedish government may be choosing a reckless course of action. I sincerely hope no one in Sweden suffers as a result of that.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 22, 2020, 06:57:02 PM
Right. I believe the Swedish government may be choosing a reckless course of action. I sincerely hope no one in Sweden suffers as a result of that.

May prove reckless, make prove effective, especially compared to other approaches. I hope the latter and that Sweden provides a blueprint (however imperfect and in need of tweaking) to help the world get past this nightmare.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 22, 2020, 04:18:16 PM
Really?  You think people want it to fail.  No, people think it's dangerous.  Please provide ANY proof that it has "worked" at all so far.

For their option to work, it takes time.  Pain up front, less pain on the back end.  Only way to prove it is with time.  Sweden, myself, you nor anyone else can make the clock go faster to prove it works.  I don't think any of us know, but their approach is novel.

In my opinion based on some comments here around states opening up, Sweden and mostly the Hydro drug there is a degree of glee expressed at times.  Almost to prove they were right and how stupid others are.  I understand the Trump hatred and wanting to prove him wrong on the drugs he recommended, but even then one would think as humans we want these things to work not score points when they do not.   

If the argument is that Sweden's approach is dangerous or Iowa's or North Dakota, that is a legitimate argument.  It also doesn't make it a correct or incorrect argument at this time because the clock is running and this whole thing is far from done.
Time will ultimately tell.  Maybe Sweden has it wrong, but maybe they don't.  In my opinion there are people that gleefully hoping it fails so they can do an I told you so, in the same way they do on other topics. 

Others here are allowed to copy articles as examples of how someone nailed it or backs their belief and that is ok.  In my opinion this reporter nails it.  "Herd immunity vs Herd Mentality".  We should all want whomever comes up with a winning idea to have it succeed, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 22, 2020, 04:20:24 PM
Deaths per M:

Sweden 192
Denmark 66
Norway 34
Finland 27

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Sweden has the equivalent of ~64,000 deaths vs. the U.S. ~47,000 and appears to be accelerating sharply based on the "Death per Day" chart for every country.

Or is Sweden front loading their deaths and ultimately will have fewer?  Your extrapolation is linear and none of us know if herd immunity will be the benefit of their approach meaning not a flattening of the curve, but a seismic drop off in the outer months.  None of us know.  They are doing better than some nations in Europe and worse than others.  I'm glad another nation as at least trying this.  It is risky, and they are taking the heat for their call, but someone needed to do this at a large scale.  If everyone tried the same approach, then we don't learn anything from it.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 12:37:44 PM
In my opinion there are people that gleefully hoping it fails so they can do an I told you so, in the same way they do on other topics.

No.  No one thinks that.

When 99% of the countries handle it one way, and Sweden and a few others handle things differently, of course the 99% are going to think that Sweden is doing it wrong.  You are correct.  Time may tell.

But no one wants them to be wrong, killing thousands needlessly in the process, just so they can be right.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 12:37:44 PM
For their option to work, it takes time.  Pain up front, less pain on the back end.  Only way to prove it is with time.  Sweden, myself, you nor anyone else can make the clock go faster to prove it works.  I don't think any of us know, but their approach is novel.

In my opinion based on some comments here around states opening up, Sweden and mostly the Hydro drug there is a degree of glee expressed at times.  Almost to prove they were right and how stupid others are.  I understand the Trump hatred and wanting to prove him wrong on the drugs he recommended, but even then one would think as humans we want these things to work not score points when they do not.   

If the argument is that Sweden's approach is dangerous or Iowa's or North Dakota, that is a legitimate argument.  It also doesn't make it a correct or incorrect argument at this time because the clock is running and this whole thing is far from done.
Time will ultimately tell.  Maybe Sweden has it wrong, but maybe they don't.  In my opinion there are people that gleefully hoping it fails so they can do an I told you so, in the same way they do on other topics. 

Others here are allowed to copy articles as examples of how someone nailed it or backs their belief and that is ok.  In my opinion this reporter nails it.  "Herd immunity vs Herd Mentality".  We should all want whomever comes up with a winning idea to have it succeed, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

Is it hard to remember whether you are posting as chico or as WD? A lot of chico posts end up coming from Warrior Dad..

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 23, 2020, 12:50:30 PM
No.  No one thinks that.

When 99% of the countries handle it one way, and Sweden and a few others handle things differently, of course the 99% are going to think that Sweden is doing it wrong.  You are correct.  Time may tell.

But no one wants them to be wrong, killing thousands needlessly in the process, just so they can be right.

Oh, don't worry, I know at least one person who is keeping score.  As if this were some sort of sick sport.

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on April 22, 2020, 12:30:21 PM
I'd have to say any analysis of strategy is premature until we know how broad the infection & immunity is. 

This summation of the interview declared 20% infection rates based on anti-body.  So they need to at least triple this right? 

It wouldnt shock me if NY is at 20% and the hospital system was pushed to the brink. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

New York Times reporting today that NYC is in fact at 21% based on an antibody survey.  Shows the equivalency not necessarily there and if we go for faster herd immunity the deaths would be pretty staggering.

It's not like Sweden's way is without risk. They are still relying on good luck it works out. If herd immunity never happens then it's going to look really bad. If their death toll is so high early, that even as others slowly increase, the vaccine or treatment is implemented in time to minimize more deaths, Sweden could be on the high side.

I hope both ways work and mitigate as many deaths as possible. However, I have some skepticism that we can point to Sweden as doing it the best way at this point in time.

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on April 23, 2020, 01:20:48 PM

New York Times reporting today that NYC is in fact at 21% based on an antibody survey.  Shows the equivalency not necessarily there and if we go for faster herd immunity the deaths would be pretty staggering.

Yep. Most estimates are that a 70-90% infection rate is required to have a chance at herd immunity. But if we want to be optimistic, let's say it would happen. Still, if you cut it in the middle and assume we'd get there with an 80% infection rate, NYC would still only be a quarter of the way there.

Regardless of any long-term benefit, I don't think anyone would want to see three more replays of what NYC just went through.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 12:49:27 PM
Or is Sweden front loading their deaths and ultimately will have fewer?  Your extrapolation is linear and none of us know if herd immunity will be the benefit of their approach meaning not a flattening of the curve, but a seismic drop off in the outer months.  None of us know.  They are doing better than some nations in Europe and worse than others.  I'm glad another nation as at least trying this.  It is risky, and they are taking the heat for their call, but someone needed to do this at a large scale.  If everyone tried the same approach, then we don't learn anything from it.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

You asked for the numbers by population and I gave them to you. When that proves you wrong you change the argument. So, so chicos.

In the last two days, Sweden has had the U.S. equivalent of 11,700 deaths. If you are interested in participating in that sort of experiment you can leave the Beer Summit in Idaho and check out Georgia.

Frederick Erixon is a Swedish economist, writer and head of ECIPE and wrote this a few days ago in a UK periodical regarding the Swedish experiment.  A few excerpts.

" a journalist from French television that I talked to on Sunday admitted, somewhat sheepishly, that 'it's almost as if we want Sweden to fail because then we would know it is you and not us that there is something wrong with'."


"Sweden hasn't declared victory — far from it.  It's still early days on this pandemic and no one really knows yet how the virus will spread once restrictions are lifted and what excess mortality it will have caused when it's all over.  Sweden doesn't know the size of the iceberg and will remain unclear for weeks if parts of Sweden has developed some degree of herd immunity"

"Swedish economic situation looks sensationally positive when compared to the ghastly reports and scenarios elsewhere.  Cash turnover indicators, for instance, suggest that personal consumption in Denmark and Finland has dropped to 66 and 70 percent respectively — compared to less than 30 percent here in Sweden.  Unemployment benefit claims in Norway have shot through the roof and grown four times as fast as Sweden."

"The economy has to be factored into a balanced pandemic response if it is going to last longer than a few weeks more.  No country can sustain suppression policies if they have catastrophic consequences for the economy"

Epic goalpost shift.   How in the hell could I have forgotten about the inevitable goalpost shift? 

Whoops.

The Swedish Public Health Agency made international headlines yesterday by estimating that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1. Less than 24 hours later, the Agency has taken a dramatic u-turn and withdrawn the report.
The decision was announced via Twitter: "We have discovered an error in the report and so the authors are currently going through the material again. We will republish the report as soon as it is ready."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#2fa916d64349

In the three days since Sweden declared it had reached its plateau:
April 20 = 392 new cases, 40 new deaths
April 21 = 545 new cases, 185 new deaths
April 22 = 682 new cases, 172 new deaths

Not 'whoops'.   They have gambled this is the path.  If they are proven right in two years, kudos.

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 23, 2020, 01:55:11 PM
You asked for the numbers by population and I gave them to you. When that proves you wrong you change the argument. So, so chicos.

In the last two days, Sweden has had the U.S. equivalent of 11,700 deaths. If you are interested in participating in that sort of experiment you can leave the Beer Summit in Idaho and check out Georgia.

I think your numbers are correct in terms of cases and deaths, at least how they count them.  With the benefit of seeing the future, none of us know if your extrapolations are accurate.  Thus far the predictions for Sweden of cases and deaths have been wrong and overstated.  Erixon ticks through the gloomy predictions and the outcomes thus far in his article.  Will that hold, only time will tell.  My desire is someone figures out the path here and having Sweden choose a different one is important for humanity in the event their approach works.  Why some are hoping it doesn't work (they have admitted it) is an odd thing to come to grips with.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 02:46:37 PM
I think your numbers are correct in terms of cases and deaths, at least how they count them.  With the benefit of seeing the future, none of us know if your extrapolations are accurate. 

My extrapolations consist of multiplying the death totals in Sweden by 33.  The same factor as the population difference between Sweden (10M) and the US (330M). Jesus, this isn't difficult to figure out.

But hey, nobody could possibly know if they are correct...
Just like no one could possibly know if an argument is correct if they can find one person that disagrees with it...

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 23, 2020, 04:18:38 PM
My extrapolations consist of multiplying the death totals in Sweden by 33.  The same factor as the population difference between Sweden (10M) and the US (330M). Jesus, this isn't difficult to figure out.

But hey, nobody could possibly know if they are correct...
Just like no one could possibly know if an argument is correct if they can find one person that disagrees with it...

We all understand the math.  What we do not know is if Sweden has created any herd immunity and/or if they pulled forward those numbers by the strategy they took.

Here is where I think you are wrong.  You are comparing the US death rate to Sweden's per your statement, but they both chose different strategies.  Why would you compare the two when the strategies are so different and the curves could end up not looking anything close to the same.  This is what the debate in strategy is about.  The Swedish strategy is have the pain up front and in latter months and years the curve goes down.  The US is trying to flatten and level until a vaccine comes out, but the curve doesn't materially drop until that vaccine comes out.  That is the difference from my perspective.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 05:51:00 PM
We all understand the math.  What we do not know is if Sweden has created any herd immunity and/or if they pulled forward those numbers by the strategy they took.

Here is where I think you are wrong. You are comparing the US death rate to Sweden's per your statement, but they both chose different strategies.  Why would you compare the two when the strategies are so different and the curves could end up not looking anything close to the same. 

Are you fucking kidding me?

Bye cheeks.

Sweden = the world's COVID control group.

If US deaths < 1/33 of Sweden's, then we were right.
If US deaths > 1/33 of Sweden's, then they were right.

Not rocket science.

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 23, 2020, 05:54:32 PM
Are you unnatural carnal knowledgeing kidding me?

Bye cheeks.

Why are you so angry all the time?  A few of you are borderline hypertensive which is not good when it comes to Covid. 

Quote from: GooooMarquette on April 23, 2020, 06:19:30 PM
Sweden = the world's COVID control group.

If US deaths < 1/33 of Sweden's, then we were right.
If US deaths > 1/33 of Sweden's, then they were right.

Not rocket science.

What if the numbers are equal?  Is everybody right, or is everybody wrong?  Will the folks that "WarriorDad" has found that are rooting for X to fail be devastated?  This is going to need another study...

But I agree - it seems generous of them to be the control group. 

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 06:57:53 PM
Why are you so angry all the time?  A few of you are borderline hypertensive which is not good when it comes to Covid.

We don't all get the answers to the questions we ask.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 23, 2020, 07:01:22 PM
What if the numbers are equal?  Is everybody right, or is everybody wrong?  Will the folks that "WarriorDad" has found that are rooting for X to fail be devastated?  This is going to need another study...

But I agree - it seems generous of them to be the control group.

If the numbers are equal (or pretty close), it would mean that there are two similarly effective ways to deal with an outbreak like this.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 23, 2020, 06:57:53 PM
Why are you so angry all the time?  A few of you are borderline hypertensive which is not good when it comes to Covid.

I have a really bad case of CHICOS-27

Quote from: GooooMarquette on April 23, 2020, 06:19:30 PM
Sweden = the world's COVID control group.

If US deaths < 1/33 of Sweden's, then we were right.
If US deaths > 1/33 of Sweden's, then they were right.

Not rocket science.

That right/wrong calculation is based on deaths as the only metric on the scoreboard.

Many have argued that we need to look at a broader picture, the next X years of misery and death.

Sweden may very well lose on deaths, but win on misery.

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on April 23, 2020, 07:55:21 PM
Sweden may very well lose on deaths, but win on misery.

That would be an interesting game theory problem. Since all our economies are linked, do the lose on deaths and still get the misery since everyone else is trying to control the virus?

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on April 23, 2020, 07:55:21 PM
That right/wrong calculation is based on deaths as the only metric on the scoreboard.

Many have argued that we need to look at a broader picture, the next X years of misery and death.

Sweden may very well lose on deaths, but win on misery.

That would present a legitimate dilemma.

Sweden believes deaths will be similar, even if temporarily postponed elsewhere.

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 23, 2020, 07:30:26 PM
I have a really bad case of CHICOS-27

Clearly the scientists failed on the cure for chicos 1 through 26.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 24, 2020, 12:54:03 AM
Clearly the scientists failed on the cure for chicos 1 through 26.

No vaccine.

Only known semi effective treatments - ignore button and ban hammer.

Back on point for Sweden.    I believe, with every fiber of my being, that in the next few weeks an effective treatment is going to be discovered that is going to be 90% effective on the worst cases.     Those on ventilators, etc.    At that point, I believe that society is going to look at the big picture and the percentages of asymptomatic, mild, medium, and severe.     Realize that the first 3 are inconvenient but manageable.    See that even if they are in the last 20 % of those who require hospitalization that there are now enough beds, ventilators, and a 90% chance they survive the worst.    And society will move toward opening everything up and herd immunity.   And who knows, when there is finally universal testing for anti-bodies, we could possibly find that we are nearly there already. 


But society at large will want that safety net in place. 

Which leads to a second, purely political rant.   Skip if you want.   I don't believe in 'socialism' in the boogeyman sense that the right tries to create about it.    I like capitalism.    But as this is showing, there has to be controls.    Especially if the government has to keep bailing your ass out every few years.    And there has to be a better safety net for those left behind by capitalism.    And finally, we are being reminded every day what is an essential worker.    And if there aren't jobs and adequate salaries and money flowing through from the bottom up, the economy is going to come to a screeching halt.    Look around you.     This has got to be the stake in the heart of trickle down economics theory.   

And yes, going forward, there is going to have to be higher taxes to pay for all of this.   On corporations.   On individuals.   Time to pay it back and build it better.   

I have been in that same place for a while now, thinking that we aren't that far from finding effective treatments--as I noted in another thread, maybe unrealistically optimistically so.

I forgot to tie my rant all together.    Doh!    One of the reasons that Sweden is able to choose the policy they have, to take the gamble they have, is that they have a phenomenal societal safety net in place.   

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 23, 2020, 10:38:46 PM
That would present a legitimate dilemma.

Sweden believes deaths will be similar, even if temporarily postponed elsewhere.

But that logically doesn't make sense.  People die when the health care system becomes overwhelmed, and at much higher rates.  This is the entire reasoning behind flatting the curve.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on April 24, 2020, 11:42:56 AM
But that logically doesn't make sense.  People die when the health care system becomes overwhelmed, and at much higher rates.  This is the entire reasoning behind flatting the curve.

The other problem with Sweden's theory - at least as it's been relayed by Cheeks and Lenny - is that it works off an assumption that an effective treatment is a long way off, if it ever arrives. The idea being, "Sure, a lot of Swedes will die up front, but other countries will eventually catch up cause they won't have our herd immunity."
So, what happens if a treatment arrives within the next couple months? It seems Sweden would have allowed a lot of people to die who may have been saved.

Sweden added 751 new cases yesterday. The highest single day since the outbreak began, and the third consecutive day with an increase since they declared a plateau.

Quote from: GooooMarquette on April 23, 2020, 06:19:30 PM
Sweden = the world's COVID control group.

If US deaths < 1/33 of Sweden's, then we were right.
If US deaths > 1/33 of Sweden's, then they were right.

Not rocket science.

That is a simple way to look at it.

I would add the time variable.  Sweden is taking the hit up front.  Their numbers may skew poorer in the beginning but better down the road.  When one looks at the numbers will matter as the curves change, if they are right.

The other variable is cost.  Say the Sweden has 5% more deaths per million when all is said and done, but their economy wasn't destroyed in the process.  Their suicide rates didn't explode and other deaths from other diseases because their doctors weren't prioritizing this over that.  Massive unemployment, businesses shuttering, govt debt. Would you only judge them on that 5% higher number, or would you holistically look at the entire picture of destruction one decision vs another may lead to?

Yes, your simplistic approach is one that could be done.  It feels significantly incomplete in looking at the entire picture, in my opinion.

Quote from: tower912 on April 24, 2020, 09:50:45 AM
Back on point for Sweden.    I believe, with every fiber of my being, that in the next few weeks an effective treatment is going to be discovered that is going to be 90% effective on the worst cases.     Those on ventilators, etc.    At that point, I believe that society is going to look at the big picture and the percentages of asymptomatic, mild, medium, and severe.     Realize that the first 3 are inconvenient but manageable.    See that even if they are in the last 20 % of those who require hospitalization that there are now enough beds, ventilators, and a 90% chance they survive the worst.    And society will move toward opening everything up and herd immunity.   And who knows, when there is finally universal testing for anti-bodies, we could possibly find that we are nearly there already. 


But society at large will want that safety net in place. 

Which leads to a second, purely political rant.   Skip if you want.   I don't believe in 'socialism' in the boogeyman sense that the right tries to create about it.    I like capitalism.    But as this is showing, there has to be controls.    Especially if the government has to keep bailing your ass out every few years.    And there has to be a better safety net for those left behind by capitalism.    And finally, we are being reminded every day what is an essential worker.    And if there aren't jobs and adequate salaries and money flowing through from the bottom up, the economy is going to come to a screeching halt.    Look around you.     This has got to be the stake in the heart of trickle down economics theory.   

And yes, going forward, there is going to have to be higher taxes to pay for all of this.   On corporations.   On individuals.   Time to pay it back and build it better.

A 300 year pandemic is a stake in the heart? 

Who is going to pay those taxes and what are the job losses that go with them?  The biggest question is defense, we are the policeman of the world.  All these other countries don't spend much at all.  Are you willing to let the military rot to the core only to have to build it up again when adversaries start taking over Taiwan, or occupying the Middle East, or pick your place.

No system in perfect.  Capitalism has plenty of flaws, but as the old adage goes there hasn't been a better system invented yet.  I'd prefer better capitalism which we used to have.  Less corporatism, but also less reliance, too. It is a two way street that both sides have contributed to.  Corporations are greedy, they should not be.  They also have to pay for many things today they did not 20 years ago (maternity pay, longer vacations, health care).  Those cost money.  As one side has become more greedy, the other side has also demanded more things.  Reaction to an action.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on April 24, 2020, 11:42:56 AM
But that logically doesn't make sense.  People die when the health care system becomes overwhelmed, and at much higher rates.  This is the entire reasoning behind flatting the curve.

People are dying in Sweden because their health care system is overwhelmed? Huh?

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 24, 2020, 05:06:25 PM
That is a simple way to look at it.

[snip]

Yes, your simplistic approach is one that could be done.  It feels significantly incomplete in looking at the entire picture, in my opinion.

Lol, isn't the simple approach to let everyone live their lives as normal, pretend nothing is happening, and let lots of people die as a result, hoping for better results in the future?

I mean - since you seem focused on calling others simple...

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 24, 2020, 08:06:40 PM
Lol, isn't the simple approach to let everyone live their lives as normal, pretend nothing is happening, and let lots of people die as a result, hoping for better results in the future?

I mean - since you seem focused on calling others simple...

And we also did that unknowingly (at least to the general public).  The results have been awesome so far. 

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 24, 2020, 05:06:25 PM
That is a simple way to look at it.

I would add the time variable.  Sweden is taking the hit up front.  Their numbers may skew poorer in the beginning but better down the road.  When one looks at the numbers will matter as the curves change, if they are right.

The other variable is cost.  Say the Sweden has 5% more deaths per million when all is said and done, but their economy wasn't destroyed in the process.  Their suicide rates didn't explode and other deaths from other diseases because their doctors weren't prioritizing this over that.  Massive unemployment, businesses shuttering, govt debt. Would you only judge them on that 5% higher number, or would you holistically look at the entire picture of destruction one decision vs another may lead to?

Yes, your simplistic approach is one that could be done.  It feels significantly incomplete in looking at the entire picture, in my opinion.

Yeah - it was a simplistic answer to a simplistic question.

Thing is, the odds of the numbers being anywhere close is pretty small. As others have suggested, I think medical treatments for COVID will improve quite a bit over the next few months. Maybe it's a 'miracle cure,' in which case the numbers will be dramatically different. Or maybe - and more likely - it will be incrementally increasing knowledge about how to use the resources we already have. Like the more conservative use of ventilators, or positioning patients differently. Either way, the delays from social distancing will allow us (and most countries) to benefit from any improvements, while Sweden will just have a body count.

Time will tell.

One small flaw in  Sweden's plan. If you don't get immunity, they are screwed.

https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-still-don-t-know-if-recovering-from-covid-19-confers-immunity-or-not


Scientists Still Don't Know if Recovering From COVID-19 Confers Immunity or Not

Even as virologists zero in on the virus that causes COVID-19, a very basic question remains unanswered: do those who recover from the disease have immunity?

There is no clear answer to this question, experts say, even if many have assumed that contracting the potentially deadly disease confers immunity, at least for a while.

Quote from: pbiflyer on April 25, 2020, 10:36:53 AM
One small flaw in  Sweden's plan. If you don't get immunity, they are screwed.

https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-still-don-t-know-if-recovering-from-covid-19-confers-immunity-or-not


Scientists Still Don't Know if Recovering From COVID-19 Confers Immunity or Not

Even as virologists zero in on the virus that causes COVID-19, a very basic question remains unanswered: do those who recover from the disease have immunity?

There is no clear answer to this question, experts say, even if many have assumed that contracting the potentially deadly disease confers immunity, at least for a while.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on April 22, 2020, 01:50:08 PM
This was always discussed as a possible way to deal with the disease. 

Their method is putting all of their faith in the hope that there is such a thing as natural herd immunity.  If there isn't such a thing, they've made a very reckless decision, and it will cost far more lives.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 24, 2020, 08:06:40 PM
Lol, isn't the simple approach to let everyone live their lives as normal, pretend nothing is happening, and let lots of people die as a result, hoping for better results in the future?

I mean - since you seem focused on calling others simple...

That could be an approach, but not my desired approach.  My personal opinion is to protect those most vulnerable, which Sweden is doing.  Don't shut the entire economy down and all the damage that goes with it which brings many more problems. 

New Zealand is declaring victory.   Why no deep dive into the how and discussion about what we can learn from them?

I have been following them on TripAdvisor.They closed their borders, required any returning citizens to go into self-quarantine for two weeks. Stopped travel between regions. Very limited ability to leave the house, including limits on how far you could venture from home, and for what reason. They are doing testing and contact tracing. They believe they have stopped community spread. They took action early, and their Prime Minister gave clear and concise information based on logic and science, which they bought into.
Nobody complained about lack of ability to golf, go to the beach, or get their hair cut.

Indeed.   Extensive testing and tracing.   Complete quarantine.  4 new cases yesterday, or low enough to start reopening.   

Quote from: tower912 on April 27, 2020, 03:01:19 PM
New Zealand is declaring victory.   Why no deep dive into the how and discussion about what we can learn from them?

I tried.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=60451.0

Maybe it has to do with what news/articles/headlines are passed around major US news outlets? Not sure how much NZ was talked about in those circles

Quote from: tower912 on April 27, 2020, 03:01:19 PM
New Zealand is declaring victory.   Why no deep dive into the how and discussion about what we can learn from them?

Not to pull a WarriorDad - but NZ is very isolated even without isolation.  The entire population (both islands 4.8M) is about half the size of Chicago metro population.  Their largest city is smaller than Milwaukee.  Only about 1/4 of the population lives on the south island.

Certainly worth an examination, but I don't think their methods would scale to a place such as the US.  Smaller EU countries maybe - but they have more bordering country problems than NZ.  Hawaii and Alaska might benefit though!

I agree, Rocky.   But Swedish society is not a good comparison, either.   10.1 Million people.   Single payer health care.    Few population centers.     

Quote from: tower912 on April 27, 2020, 04:07:53 PM
I agree, Rocky.   But Swedish society is not a good comparison, either.   10.1 Million people.   Single payer health care.    Few population centers.     

Also, a population that isn't encouraged to view government as the enemy.

Quote from: tower912 on April 27, 2020, 04:07:53 PM
But Swedish society is not a good comparison, either.   

Agreed.   Though - and maybe this was your point that I missed - comparing NZ and Sweden long term results/approaches might be interesting.

As it stands today:
NZ: ~1,500 cases, ~20 deaths
SWE: ~19,000 cases, ~2,300 deaths

(understanding Sweden is a little over 2x the size of NZ, and has a slightly higher population density)

Yes you did try jesmu. And I tried to help you keep it going 😁

Quote from: Pakuni on April 27, 2020, 04:14:35 PM
Also, a population that isn't encouraged to view government as the enemy.

Also, a government that doesn't tweet support of re-open protests.

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 27, 2020, 05:23:09 PM
Also, a government that doesn't tweet support of re-open protests.

Well, since they never closed...

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 27, 2020, 05:40:54 PM
Well, since they never closed...

Ha, well played Len.  8-)

This is how I know that JayBee has been right all along.  Lenny and Chico's on the same side of an argument.  #endofdays

Quote from: tower912 on April 27, 2020, 03:01:19 PM
New Zealand is declaring victory.   Why no deep dive into the how and discussion about what we can learn from them?

New Zealand may be one of the most dissimilar nations in the world.  Hard to use them as a proxy nation of many others.  Seems obvious.

Quote from: tower912 on April 27, 2020, 04:07:53 PM
I agree, Rocky.   But Swedish society is not a good comparison, either.   10.1 Million people.   Single payer health care.    Few population centers.     

Swedish population is an excellent comparison against other Scandinavian nations and even some other European nations.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 27, 2020, 09:05:45 PM
Swedish population is an excellent comparison against other Scandinavian nations and even some other European nations.

Sweden is a good comparison to other Scandinavian nations. I'm curious as to which other European nations you believe are comparable.

This seems a fair and in-depth look at Sweden's policy. Read it all, if you're interested.

https://qz.com/1842183/sweden-is-taking-a-very-different-approach-to-covid-19/

Quote from: Pakuni on April 28, 2020, 08:14:19 AM
This seems a fair and in-depth look at Sweden's policy. Read it all, if you're interested.

https://qz.com/1842183/sweden-is-taking-a-very-different-approach-to-covid-19/

Good information. Thanks.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 27, 2020, 03:52:40 PM
Not to pull a WarriorDad - but NZ is very isolated even without isolation.  The entire population (both islands 4.8M) is about half the size of Chicago metro population.  Their largest city is smaller than Milwaukee.  Only about 1/4 of the population lives on the south island.

Certainly worth an examination, but I don't think their methods would scale to a place such as the US.  Smaller EU countries maybe - but they have more bordering country problems than NZ.  Hawaii and Alaska might benefit though!

You are forgetting all e Hobbits & Elves & Dwarfs & Orcs.

Quote from: MU Fan in Connecticut on April 28, 2020, 09:09:02 AM
You are forgetting all e Hobbits & Elves & Dwarfs & Orcs.

Pretty sure Elves would be immune.  That certainly would help their %s.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 28, 2020, 08:08:56 AM
Sweden is a good comparison to other Scandinavian nations. I'm curious as to which other European nations you believe are comparable.

Based on my travels and knowledge of European history, Finland, which is not part of Scandinavia but is part of Europe.  There are differences, no two countries are exactly the same, but I found them quite similar.  Finland was controlled by Sweden for more than 500 years which is why there are so many cultural similarities.

Now, what does New Zealand compare to?

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 28, 2020, 12:24:59 PM
Based on my travels and knowledge of European history, Finland, which is not part of Scandinavia but is part of Europe.  There are differences, no two countries are exactly the same, but I found them quite similar.  Finland was controlled by Sweden for more than 500 years which is why there are so many cultural similarities.

Now, what does New Zealand compare to?

As a former Australian resident,  only compares to Australia.  With the Kiwis being slightly more culturally English.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 28, 2020, 12:24:59 PM
Based on my travels and knowledge of European history, Finland, which is not part of Scandinavia but is part of Europe.  There are differences, no two countries are exactly the same, but I found them quite similar.  Finland was controlled by Sweden for more than 500 years which is why there are so many cultural similarities.

Now, what does New Zealand compare to?

So your "other European nations" is a single neighboring country that is similar in every significant way but linguistic roots? OK.
How is Sweden stacking up to its neighbors during the pandemic these days?

As for New Zealand, Australia is comparable in many ways. Iceland to some extent.

Taken at face value, neither Sweden nor New Zealand scales well for comparisons to the US.  The difference is why each doesn't scale well.  NZ doesn't scale due to geography, which we can do nothing about.  Sweden doesn't scale well due to policy choices, which are up to us.

Yup

Quote from: Pakuni on April 28, 2020, 12:41:02 PM
So your "other European nations" is a single neighboring country that is similar in every significant way but linguistic roots? OK.
How is Sweden stacking up to its neighbors during the pandemic these days?

As for New Zealand, Australia is comparable in many ways. Iceland to some extent.

Sweden is front end loading their approach, only time will tell if they are correct.  Do you agree?  I don't think comparing them at this point in time is complete.

Australia and New Zealand have some similarities, but far more differences in my opinion.  Geography (28x bigger), considerably more entry points to the country (far more travel to Australia for virus to get in), population is 5x larger, and the populations are considerably different.  Australia is white, New Zealand more cosmopolitan.

New Zealand is a centralized govt, Australia has states like we do with their own gov'ts controlling.  Not that many similarities between the two nations.

I'm confused by Sweden's numbers. They are adamant they are catching all their cases and deaths, because of meticulous testing. They say other nations are under-reporting, making them look worse than they are.

But they are also reporting a 12% mortality rate. Which either means they are doing a terrible job of treating this, or they are way under-testing, and then would also be way under-reporting.

Confused.

Quote from: forgetful on April 29, 2020, 10:06:18 PM
I'm confused by Sweden's numbers. They are adamant they are catching all their cases and deaths, because of meticulous testing. They say other nations are under-reporting, making them look worse than they are.

But they are also reporting a 12% mortality rate. Which either means they are doing a terrible job of treating this, or they are way under-testing, and then would also be way under-reporting.

Confused.

Which numbers are you using?  Today's NY Times article on Sweden was fair in my opinion.  Mentioned the good and bad of their approach.  Cannot say others have been as balanced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

I prefer the deaths per 1M number because the mortality rate numbers assumes countries have a good handle on numerator and denominator of those with the disease.  They don't, but all countries know their population stats.  Sweden is at 244 deaths per 1M pop.  That is considerably better than Italy, UK, France, Netherlands and roughly the same as Ireland.   Other nations doing better, but is it due to delaying the inevitable or the right strategy while Sweden has pulled their deaths forward by not locking down? 

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 29, 2020, 10:42:20 PM
Which numbers are you using?  Today's NY Times article on Sweden was fair in my opinion.  Mentioned the good and bad of their approach.  Cannot say others have been as balanced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

I prefer the deaths per 1M number because the mortality rate numbers assumes countries have a good handle on numerator and denominator of those with the disease.  They don't, but all countries know their population stats.  Sweden is at 244 deaths per 1M pop.  That is considerably better than Italy, UK, France, Netherlands and roughly the same as Ireland.   Other nations doing better, but is it due to delaying the inevitable or the right strategy while Sweden has pulled their deaths forward by not locking down?

2462 deaths: 20,302 cases. That is 12.1% mortality rate. So either they are not testing enough, which means both numbers are likely off. Or they suck at treating their patients.

Quote from: forgetful on April 29, 2020, 10:58:30 PM
2462 deaths: 20,302 cases. That is 12.1% mortality rate. So either they are not testing enough, which means both numbers are likely off. Or they suck at treating their patients.

Don't quote me on this, but from what I've read Sweden is largely limiting its testing to people who are hospitalized and health/elderly care workers.
Maybe when your national policy is not to care who gets it, testing and tracking isn't that important.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 29, 2020, 11:08:16 PM
Don't quote me on this, but from what I've read Sweden is largely limiting its testing to people who are hospitalized and health/elderly care workers.
Maybe when your national policy is not to care who gets it, testing and tracking isn't that important.

The data suggests you are right. Tests per 1M:

Sweden 11,800
Denmark 33,300
Norway 31,200
Finland 16,900

Low test rates/only testing the sick ---> High mortality rate

Quote from: forgetful on April 29, 2020, 10:58:30 PM
2462 deaths: 20,302 cases. That is 12.1% mortality rate. So either they are not testing enough, which means both numbers are likely off. Or they suck at treating their patients.

I understand the math, it's the formula that I think is misleading because the denominator is unknown.

Using the same math equation, the mortality rate in the US for this virus is 5.7%.  I get to that number dividing 62K into 1.076M cases.  Do you believe that is the real mortality rate in the US because that is what the math as we know it today suggests?  Dr. Fauci has said it is likely below 1%, because he is factoring in a true mortality rate because he knows far more people have the virus than cases totaled and of those people, 98% of them aren't dying.  More than 80% had such mild symptoms they may not have even known they had it.

What you are really saying is of the citizens they know have the virus (cases), the mortality rate is 12.1%.  But that number is somewhat useless and doesn't appear in any dashboards I have seen for a reason, because it is flawed without having a more complete data set.   If the mortality rate was truly as high as 12.1%, the deaths in the country per million or any other comparison would be extreme.  They are not.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 01:01:22 PM
I understand the math, it's the formula that I think is misleading because the denominator is unknown.

Using the same math equation, the mortality rate in the US for this virus is 5.7%.  I get to that number dividing 62K into 1.076M cases.  Do you believe that is the real mortality rate in the US because that is what the math as we know it today suggests?  Dr. Fauci has said it is likely below 1%, because he is factoring in a true mortality rate because he knows far more people have the virus than cases totaled and of those people, 98% of them aren't dying.  More than 80% had such mild symptoms they may not have even known they had it.

What you are really saying is of the citizens they know have the virus (cases), the mortality rate is 12.1%.  But that number is somewhat useless and doesn't appear in any dashboards I have seen for a reason, because it is flawed without having a more complete data set.   If the mortality rate was truly as high as 12.1%, the deaths in the country per million or any other comparison would be extreme.  They are not.

Deaths per million is pretty high in Sweden.

(https://i.imgur.com/1vZoG0F.png)

From this article.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

NPR this week delves into what a crude mortality rate is and why a true mortality rate is so hard to figure out at the moment.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/24/844562935/why-the-true-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-is-hard-to-estimate

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 01:20:49 PM
NPR this week delves into what a crude mortality rate is and why a true mortality rate is so hard to figure out at the moment.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/24/844562935/why-the-true-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-is-hard-to-estimate

You just said "If the mortality rate was truly as high as 12.1%, the deaths in the country per million or any other comparison would be extreme.  They are not."

Yet when I post that the deaths per million is more than three times its Nordic neighbors, you ignore it and post more on death rates - which everyone knows is problematic due to....well....math.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 30, 2020, 01:25:44 PM
You just said "If the mortality rate was truly as high as 12.1%, the deaths in the country per million or any other comparison would be extreme.  They are not."

Yet when I post that the deaths per million is more than three times its Nordic neighbors, you ignore it and post more on death rates - which everyone knows is problematic due to....well....math.

Intellectual dishonesty

I don't understand this "mortality rate debate". Fauci estimated it at 0.8% back in early March.  So far data points have corroborated it.  If antibody shows lower-great.  Due to how easily this is transmitted.  That's still a ton of people globally and domestically. 

Not sure whats going on in Europe but other countries are being pretty dishonest about their death rates. Some are pretending covid barely exists, then some like states in the US are doing the opposite. We're counting pretty much every death due to covid symptoms as a covid death (problematic as these are very standard symptoms) as well as people dying of other issues who have covid as a covid death. I know of two personally. One died of a heart attach unrelated to covid, and another died in a car accident. Both were counted.

Quote from: #UnleashJayce on April 30, 2020, 01:31:24 PM
Not sure whats going on in Europe but other countries are being pretty dishonest about their death rates. Some are pretending covid barely exists, then some like states in the US are doing the opposite. We're counting pretty much every death due to covid symptoms as a covid death (problematic as these are very standard symptoms) as well as people dying of other issues who have covid as a covid death. I know of two personally. One died of a heart attach unrelated to covid, and another died in a car accident. Both were counted.

How do you know this?  My understanding is that individualized information isn't released. 

Quote from: #UnleashJayce on April 30, 2020, 01:31:24 PM
Not sure whats going on in Europe but other countries are being pretty dishonest about their death rates. Some are pretending covid barely exists, then some like states in the US are doing the opposite. We're counting pretty much every death due to covid symptoms as a covid death (problematic as these are very standard symptoms) as well as people dying of other issues who have covid as a covid death. I know of two personally. One died of a heart attach unrelated to covid, and another died in a car accident. Both were counted.

Which states are you saying are over-stating deaths due to COVID?

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 30, 2020, 01:15:13 PM

Deaths per million is pretty high in Sweden.

Lower than Italy, France, UK, in line with Ireland despite the tactics those nations took.  Sweden is moving their deaths forward in the count in the hope of herd mentality.  They may be wrong in that approach.  Despite taking their lumps now, their deaths per 1M looks better than a number of countries and worse than others.  With the amount of opposition to their approach, one would seem to think they are worst in the world or close to it.  The data doesn't show that to be the case.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 30, 2020, 01:25:44 PM
You just said "If the mortality rate was truly as high as 12.1%, the deaths in the country per million or any other comparison would be extreme.  They are not."

Yet when I post that the deaths per million is more than three times its Nordic neighbors, you ignore it and post more on death rates - which everyone knows is problematic due to....well....math.

I addressed this yesterday.  Higher than some of its neighbors, but better than some European nations.  And again, they are taking their lumps now in the hopes of less deaths later.  Some call that intellectual dishonesty, but that is exactly their stated goal to try and acquire herd immunity.  By doing so, more deaths happen now. 

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 01:42:36 PM
Lower than Italy, France, UK, in line with Ireland despite the tactics those nations took. 

Whoa, whoa, whoa....  Earlier you said this:

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 27, 2020, 09:05:45 PM
Swedish population is an excellent comparison against other Scandinavian nations and even some other European nations.

Then when others asked you "which European nations," you said this:

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 28, 2020, 12:24:59 PM
Based on my travels and knowledge of European history, Finland, which is not part of Scandinavia but is part of Europe. 

So when I show that the death per million are out of whack compared to the Scandinavian nations and Finland, the nations YOU mentioned would be a good comparison, you bring up France, Italy, etc.

Intellectual dishonesty and goal-post shifting at its finest!  A veritable Chicos masterpiece!!!  <chef's kiss>

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on April 30, 2020, 01:29:15 PM
I don't understand this "mortality rate debate". Fauci estimated it at 0.8% back in early March.  So far data points have corroborated it.  If antibody shows lower-great.  Due to how easily this is transmitted.  That's still a ton of people globally and domestically.

The debate is around projecting numbers that aren't true.  Claiming a 12% mortality rate, or even 5% is not accurate and accomplishes what exactly?  Other than more fear, confusion and panic.   The true rate based on any number of worldwide estimates is less than 1%.  That is higher than the flu, which is .1 to .3%, but if it lands at .8% that is significantly different than 5% or 12% that some are using erroneously.   

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 30, 2020, 01:49:20 PM
Whoa, whoa, whoa....  Earlier you said this:

Then when others asked you "which European nations," you said this:


So when I show that the death per million are out of whack compared to the Scandinavian nations and Finland, the nations YOU mentioned would be a good comparison, you bring up France, Italy, etc.

Intellectual dishonesty and goal-post shifting at its finest!  A veritable Chicos masterpiece!!!  <chef's kiss>

Are they out of whack?  When you factor in the timing and their approach?  Thought it was clear that timing is everything.  This has been addressed by me and a few others here.  Not sure how a goalpost was shifted.  Their deaths will be higher now because of their approach.  What they are gambling on is their overall deaths and death rate by proxy will be lower in the months ahead if they can realize herd immunity.  Why would you not factor in time when you know clear well their approach is to accelerate deaths now and not distribute deaths later as most nations have done?

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 01:50:01 PM
The debate is around projecting numbers that aren't true.  Claiming a 12% mortality rate, or even 5% is not accurate and accomplishes what exactly?  Other than more fear, confusion and panic.   The true rate based on any number of worldwide estimates is less than 1%.  That is higher than the flu, which is .1 to .3%, but if it lands at .8% that is significantly different than 5% or 12% that some are using erroneously.

You're confusing mortality rates of infection with mortality rates of known cases. These are not the same thing.

The case mortality rate for the flu is about .1 percent - that is, for every 1,000 reported cases, 1 person dies. The case mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 6 percent, meaning that for every 1,000 reported cases, 60 people die.

The infection mortality rates for both are much lower, but show that COVID-19 is significantly more dangerous. The estimated infection mortality rate is currently .5 to .6 percent. So, working off the lower number, 5 in 1,000 who contract it (reported or not), are dying. That's still five times higher than the mortality rates of known flu cases, much less the millions of cases every year that never get reported.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 02:14:46 PM
Are they out of whack?  When you factor in the timing and their approach?  Thought it was clear that timing is everything.  This has been addressed by me and a few others here.  Not sure how a goalpost was shifted.  Their deaths will be higher now because of their approach.  What they are gambling on is their overall deaths and death rate by proxy will be lower in the months ahead if they can realize herd immunity.  Why would you not factor in time when you know clear well their approach is to accelerate deaths now and not distribute deaths later as most nations have done?

Of course they are out of whack.  More than three times their per capita population is dying due to the disease than the best comparables YOU provided.

And yes, they are trying to get to herd immunity by letting the infection run rampant, which is morally problematic.  It assumes that treatment or prevention techniques would not improve over time.  So the curve my not only flatten, but decrease.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 30, 2020, 01:49:20 PM
Intellectual dishonesty and goal-post shifting at its finest!  A veritable Chicos masterpiece!!!  <chef's kiss>

(https://media.giphy.com/media/DD48lE9CRqd6O4kYq2/giphy.gif)

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on April 30, 2020, 02:23:02 PM

Of course they are out of whack.  More than three times their per capita population is dying due to the disease than the best comparables YOU provided.

And yes, they are trying to get to herd immunity by letting the infection run rampant, which is morally problematic.  It assumes that treatment or prevention techniques would not improve over time.  So the curve my not only flatten, but decrease.

Is it morally problematic if in the end it saves lives?  If their approach saves lives both from the virus itself and the fallout of economic crisis they hope to avert (also costing lives)  I don't see how that is morally problematic.  If they are wrong, then ok.  If they are right, they would be on the correct side of the moral argument.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 30, 2020, 02:15:12 PM
You're confusing mortality rates of infection with mortality rates of known cases. These are not the same thing.

The case mortality rate for the flu is about .1 percent - that is, for every 1,000 reported cases, 1 person dies. The case mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 6 percent, meaning that for every 1,000 reported cases, 60 people die.

The infection mortality rates for both are much lower, but show that COVID-19 is significantly more dangerous. The estimated infection mortality rate is currently .5 to .6 percent. So, working off the lower number, 5 in 1,000 who contract it (reported or not), are dying. That's still five times higher than the mortality rates of known flu cases, much less the millions of cases every year that never get reported.

I'm actually not confusing them and a few messages above mention the different between a true mortality rate and a crude mortality rate based on cases.   We agree that this is more lethal and more contagious than the flu.  Cannot recall ever saying anything differently.  The ongoing debate is whether those numbers should be shutting down the world and eliciting the additional pain and suffering it is.  That may be easy for you and I to say yes.  I'm semi-retired.  My children in their 20's and 30's think of it differently and the amazing bill we are handing to the next generation has me and so many others asking questions about the tradeoffs.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 02:33:10 PM
Is it morally problematic if in the end it saves lives?  If their approach saves lives both from the virus itself and the fallout of economic crisis they hope to avert (also costing lives)  I don't see how that is morally problematic.  If they are wrong, then ok.  If they are right, they would be on the correct side of the moral argument.

Yes, willingly allowing innocent people to die today because there's a chance - not a certainty, a chance - it maybe could save lives in the future is indeed morally problematic.

Maybe we should execute children caught setting fires. Setting fires in childhood is a common denominator among serial killers. It could save lives in the end.
(Yes, I'm being hyperbolic)

This guy disagrees with WD. Now what will he do??

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 02:36:38 PM
I'm actually not confusing them

Here's what you wrote:
"The true rate based on any number of worldwide estimates is less than 1%.  That is higher than the flu, which is .1 to .3%"

You literally compared the estimated COVID-19 infection mortality rate with the flu case mortality rate.
You're either confusing them or knowingly trying to mislead. There is no other option. I was giving you the benefit of the doubt.

Quote from: pbiflyer on April 30, 2020, 02:46:23 PM
This guy disagrees with WD. Now what will he do??

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

Well there ya go.  The Donald and I agree on something.

Quote from: pbiflyer on April 30, 2020, 02:46:23 PM
This guy disagrees with WD. Now what will he do??

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

I still think it may be a bit early to call their decision incorrect.  It isn't looking good but we should wait to see how this plays out.  It doesn't mean though we should just open every state.  Starting in early May we are going to get a peek into the Sweden technique as some states will be opening up.

There is a scenario where their neighbor's death spike and Sweden's doesn't.  Time will tell.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 30, 2020, 01:50:01 PM
The debate is around projecting numbers that aren't true.  Claiming a 12% mortality rate, or even 5% is not accurate and accomplishes what exactly?  Other than more fear, confusion and panic.   The true rate based on any number of worldwide estimates is less than 1%.  That is higher than the flu, which is .1 to .3%, but if it lands at .8% that is significantly different than 5% or 12% that some are using erroneously.

Well, if you read what I actually wrote, instead of spinning it into whatever argument you want to make at that particular second, things would make more sense.

I said, Sweden was saying other nations were underreporting their cases, and deaths, to make their numbers look better. But Sweden says they are not doing this, they are being extra vigilant on testing and accuracy.

If that is true, and they are accurately catching and reporting their numbers the mortality rate is 12.1%. Which, gives rise to the same two possiblities I proposed earlier, before you shifted the goalposts.

1) The suck at treating patients. 2) They are misreporting numbers due to poor testing. The latter means, we have no idea how many cases, or deaths they really have. The latter also means that their criticism of others is unjustified.

Quote from: #UnleashJayce on April 30, 2020, 01:31:24 PM
Not sure whats going on in Europe but other countries are being pretty dishonest about their death rates. Some are pretending covid barely exists, then some like states in the US are doing the opposite. We're counting pretty much every death due to covid symptoms as a covid death (problematic as these are very standard symptoms) as well as people dying of other issues who have covid as a covid death. I know of two personally. One died of a heart attach unrelated to covid, and another died in a car accident. Both were counted.

Heart attacks are not being included. Unless, they have tested positive for COVID-19. In the latter case, COVID-19 aggressively attacks heart tissue too, and can affect clotting. Both of which can cause or contribute to a heart attack. They should be included.

Car accidents are not being included. Unless, they had COVID-19, and the accident report can show that COVID-19 contributed to the accident. That is very common, since COVID-19 causes severe hypoxia, which leads to you having the mental acuity and coordination of essentially being the most drunk you have ever been. Again, this should absolutely be included as a COVID death.

There are very few if any, non-COVID related deaths being counted as COVID, there are far more being excluded due to some municipalities requiring a positive test, even in cases where clinically it is obvious that the death was due to COVID.

The fact that more deaths are being excluded is validated by the fact that we have about 50% more deaths than normal, even after correcting for COVID-19. That is despite fewer people being on roads so fewer auto deaths.

Quote from: forgetful on April 30, 2020, 04:08:55 PM


Car accidents are not being included. Unless, they had COVID-19, and the accident report can show that COVID-19 contributed to the accident. That is very common, since COVID-19 causes severe hypoxia, which leads to you having the mental acuity and coordination of essentially being the most drunk you have ever been. Again, this should absolutely be included as a COVID death.



The fact that more deaths are being excluded is validated by the fact that we have about 50% more deaths than normal, even after correcting for COVID-19. That is despite fewer people being on roads so fewer auto deaths.

I'm very interested in the bolded parts of your quote.  Where are you getting this data from?  Not challenging, just looking for the data.

Quote from: Sir Lawrence on April 30, 2020, 04:48:41 PM
I'm very interested in the bolded parts of your quote.  Where are you getting this data from?  Not challenging, just looking for the data.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/us-reports-66000-more-deaths-than-expected-so-far-this-year/2020/04/29/b6833548-8a68-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

Quote from: Sir Lawrence on April 30, 2020, 04:48:41 PM
I'm very interested in the bolded parts of your quote.  Where are you getting this data from?  Not challenging, just looking for the data.

Pakuni linked one of the articles I was referring to.

Also this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

8000 death gap, 18,109 COVID deaths. So the unexplained 8000 deaths accounts for roughly 50% more deaths.

There are a number of these studies out there.

Thanks.  I read the technical notes in the CDC article, where it states "These estimates are based on provisional data, which are incomplete. The weighting method applied here may not fully account for underreporting if there are longer delays at present than in past years. Conversely, the weighting method may over-adjust for underreporting, given improvements in data timeliness in certain jurisdictions."  But the trend does seem to validate the conclusion of the articles.

Death sucks.   

forgetful, what about your car accident statement?  I've not seen any news articles about COVID-19 related vehicular accidents.  Thanks.

Quote from: Sir Lawrence on April 30, 2020, 05:42:05 PM
Thanks.  I read the technical notes in the CDC article, where it states "These estimates are based on provisional data, which are incomplete. The weighting method applied here may not fully account for underreporting if there are longer delays at present than in past years. Conversely, the weighting method may over-adjust for underreporting, given improvements in data timeliness in certain jurisdictions."  But the trend does seem to validate the conclusion of the articles.

Death sucks.   

forgetful, what about your car accident statement?  I've not seen any news articles about COVID-19 related vehicular accidents.  Thanks.

I've heard of exactly zero covid caused auto fatalities.  If you are in as bad of shape as forgetful describes, you're not getting behind a wheel, you are calling 911.

Most insurers are sending money back, their auto losses are down so much from less driving due to WFH.

Quote from: Sir Lawrence on April 30, 2020, 05:42:05 PM
Thanks.  I read the technical notes in the CDC article, where it states "These estimates are based on provisional data, which are incomplete. The weighting method applied here may not fully account for underreporting if there are longer delays at present than in past years. Conversely, the weighting method may over-adjust for underreporting, given improvements in data timeliness in certain jurisdictions."  But the trend does seem to validate the conclusion of the articles.

Death sucks.   

forgetful, what about your car accident statement?  I've not seen any news articles about COVID-19 related vehicular accidents.  Thanks.

I agree on not really being able to fully look at the statistics on the deaths, and possible issues with delays in reporting.

Regarding the vehicular accidents. I have not heard of any vehicular deaths being called a COVID death, I was giving a scenario where it would be justified, in response to UJ saying a car accident death was called COVID.

If anyone has ever done high-altitude training (over 20k feet), and experienced hypoxia, you'd understand what I mean by "most drunk you've ever felt".

edit: just read, I actually wrote "very common" in regards to vehicular deaths. That was my bad. I was thinking, it would be very common to have severe hypoxia, not very common for people to die while driving, but my brain defied me and put the phrasing in the wrong place.

Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on April 30, 2020, 06:06:30 PM
If you are in as bad of shape as forgetful describes, you're not getting behind a wheel, you are calling 911.

Just like when people are drunk, and think they are fine. The same thing can happen with Hypoxia. That is why high-altitude climbers, or anyone taking part in high-altitude flight operations, undergoes specific training to recognize and properly respond to their hypoxia symptoms.

One of the things they are seeing with COVID is people in severe hypoxia, and not even realizing it. Essentially being in the ER for something else, and when hooked up to the pulse oximeter, realize they are in big trouble. Very odd disease.

Quote from: forgetful on April 30, 2020, 06:14:34 PM
Just like when people are drunk, and think they are fine. The same thing can happen with Hypoxia. That is why high-altitude climbers, or anyone taking part in high-altitude flight operations, undergoes specific training to recognize and properly respond to their hypoxia symptoms.

We gonna have to agreed to disagree on this one, kin.

Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on April 30, 2020, 06:16:28 PM
We gonna have to agreed to disagree on this one, kin.

Have you ever taken part in high-altitude flight training?

https://www.aviationmedicine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Weighing-the-Risks-of-Hypoxia-Training.pdf

Hypoxia is some crazy stuff. People respond in drastically different ways.

and here is a link to "silent hypoxia' being an issue with COVID.

https://www.livescience.com/silent-hypoxia-killing-covid-19-coronavirus-patients.html

I can also see a scenario where someone is living alone, is suffering from the virus, and decides to drive to a hospital rather than call an ambulance.

Quote from: Pakuni on April 30, 2020, 05:02:10 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/us-reports-66000-more-deaths-than-expected-so-far-this-year/2020/04/29/b6833548-8a68-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

I'm a little confused. Early in the article they break down the 66000 death "above normal" as approximately 33000 covid related and 33000 non covid. Later they say covid deaths are at 60000+. So somebody is already accounting for almost all of the overage as Covid related, no?

As a totally irrelevant but to me interesting BTW, the article was written by the the namesake of the famous owner/operator of Lenny's Tap on 18th and State - the late, great Lenny Bernstein. Not surprisingly, I take every word as gospel.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 30, 2020, 08:08:23 PM
I'm a little confused. Early in the article they break down the 66000 death "above normal" as approximately 33000 covid related and 33000 non covid. Later they say covid deaths are at 60000+. So somebody is already accounting for almost all of the overage as Covid related, no?

As a totally irrelevant but to me interesting BTW, the article was written by the the namesake of the famous owner/operator of Lenny's Tap on 18th and State - the late, great Lenny Bernstein. Not surprisingly, I take every word as gospel.

This made my day.  To Lenny B.  RIP!

Everyone spins the numbers to whatever makes it look good for them at that moment.  I hear the virus spreads so fast and we have no clue how many people are infected cause of those without symptoms.  Then when the death numbers are taken it is taken with just those that tested positive.

Facts = it spreads fast and easily and kills those older and with pre existing conditions more than healthy people

This is probably a better combo for the US

https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403)

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on May 01, 2020, 06:12:44 AM
This is probably a better combo for the US

https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403)

I am actually working on a project that shares and tracks information in Germany. Some states, like Hesse are pretty sophisticated, even tracking the "
smart" hospital beds. They are far ahead of the curve in tracking resources.
Most of my role is adapting that to apply those things to US states. Responses from most of the states are "There is no way we could ever track that level of information" or "We don't need to track that much information".
Looking at the death rate comparison, perhaps we should try. 

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on May 01, 2020, 06:12:44 AM
This is probably a better combo for the US

https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403)

Germany did a great job. Such a great job that their citizens are complaining that their response was overblown.

I wish I could be saying that in the United States.

Quote from: pbiflyer on May 01, 2020, 07:27:00 AM
I am actually working on a project that shares and tracks information in Germany. Some states, like Hesse are pretty sophisticated, even tracking the "
smart" hospital beds. They are far ahead of the curve in tracking resources.
Most of my role is adapting that to apply those things to US states. Responses from most of the states are "There is no way we could ever track that level of information" or "We don't need to track that much information".
Looking at the death rate comparison, perhaps we should try.

As long as information can be organized and analyzed, I don't think there is such a thing as too much information.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on May 01, 2020, 07:30:10 AM
As long as information can be organized and analyzed, I don't think there is such a thing as too much information.

On that we agree. Sadly, many state officials don't.

Quote from: Skatastrophy on May 01, 2020, 07:28:49 AM
Germany did a great job. Such a great job that their citizens are complaining that their response was overblown.

I wish I could be saying that in the United States.

Have you seen the protestors?

Over 80% of Swedish residents in recent polling support their government's approach on COVID 19.

https://qz.com/1842183/sweden-is-taking-a-very-different-approach-to-covid-19/

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 01, 2020, 03:06:52 PM
Over 80% of Swedish residents in recent polling support their government's approach on COVID 19.

https://qz.com/1842183/sweden-is-taking-a-very-different-approach-to-covid-19/

Still beating the dead horse?

Chico was best at doing this. You are a close second. So for the next new persona that you become, doing this is the single biggest giveaway to your identity. You might even get away with fooling people for a while.

But if it looks like a Chico, acts like a Chico, and quacks like a Chico, it is a Chico.

Quote from: forgetful on April 30, 2020, 04:08:55 PM
Heart attacks are not being included. Unless, they have tested positive for COVID-19. In the latter case, COVID-19 aggressively attacks heart tissue too, and can affect clotting. Both of which can cause or contribute to a heart attack. They should be included.

Car accidents are not being included. Unless, they had COVID-19, and the accident report can show that COVID-19 contributed to the accident. That is very common, since COVID-19 causes severe hypoxia, which leads to you having the mental acuity and coordination of essentially being the most drunk you have ever been. Again, this should absolutely be included as a COVID death.

There are very few if any, non-COVID related deaths being counted as COVID, there are far more being excluded due to some municipalities requiring a positive test, even in cases where clinically it is obvious that the death was due to COVID.

The fact that more deaths are being excluded is validated by the fact that we have about 50% more deaths than normal, even after correcting for COVID-19. That is despite fewer people being on roads so fewer auto deaths.

In some cases under reported, in other cases over reported.  Pennsylvania had to lower their numbers recently because of over reporting.  Some funeral directors in New York believe (their opinion) a number of over-reporting of COVID causes that came out yesterday.  If federal funding is tied to cause of death, that could be a reason why.

As an example  "If you don't have a private doctor and you weren't under any medical care, they're automatically putting down on the death certificate COVID-19, because they don't wanna go--they're so overwhelmed," Antioco said. "They're putting everything as COVID-19, so they're padding the numbers."  "They're not going out to houses anymore," he said. "They would go out to the house, they would investigate the scene, they would do some testing at the scene and then come up with a conclusion as to: 'He had heart disease.'"

Antioco said when medical examiners are too busy and not looking to travel, COVID-19 has become the go-to cause of death. "How many of them are actually COVID-19? Or is the M.E.(Medical Examiner) just putting that because they don't want to go to the scene?"   Joseph Antioco, the director of Brooklyn's Schaeffer Funeral Home


We will never know the true numbers from this pandemic.  Too many people cremated without testing.

Quote from: Jockey on May 01, 2020, 03:18:27 PM
Still beating the dead horse?

Chico was best at doing this. You are a close second. So for the next new persona that you become, doing this is the single biggest giveaway to your identity. You might even get away with fooling people for a while.

But if it looks like a Chico, acts like a Chico, and quacks like a Chico, it is a Chico.

I don't see where anyone in this message thread mentioned what the people of Sweden thought.  We know how others feel, how do the actual citizens feel.  Over 80% is a number rarely seen in anything when it comes to government policy.  That is new information to share and not beating a dead horse.  Can you imagine 80% number in this country about anything this big in the last 20 years?  It happens, but rarely.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 01, 2020, 08:13:36 PM
I don't see where anyone in this message thread mentioned what the people of Sweden thought.  We know how others feel, how do the actual citizens feel.  Over 80% is a number rarely seen in anything when it comes to government policy.  That is new information to share and not beating a dead horse.  Can you imagine 80% number in this country about anything this big in the last 20 years?  It happens, but rarely.

The Swedish government could invade Russia and 80 percent of the population would support it. Trust and support for big government is a quintessential characteristic of the Swedes.
The American right's sudden embrace of a socialist European government has been something to behold.
Pandemics make for strange bedfellows.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 01, 2020, 08:13:36 PM
Can you imagine 80% number in this country about anything this big in the last 20 years?  It happens, but rarely.

You don't need to imagine.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx (https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx)

Quote from: Pakuni on May 01, 2020, 08:21:32 PM
The Swedish government could invade Russia and 80 percent of the population would support it. Trust and support for big government is a quintessential characteristic of the Swedes.
The American right's sudden embrace of a socialist European government has been something to behold.
Pandemics make for strange bedfellows.

Wouldn't the American right or libertarians be gravitating more for the civil liberties angle the Swedes are practicing?  Let grown-ups be grown-up, practice good health, give citizens the information, but let them act? 

Is 80% support in government by the Swedes a normal occurrence as you suggest?  It seems high, especially for something this important that directly pertains to one's health.  Afterall, they are all potentially impacted individually in a life-or-death way moreso than most government policies.

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on May 01, 2020, 08:35:47 PM
You don't need to imagine.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx (https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx)

I think his dad was that high after the gulf war, but it is rare as I mentioned.  Handful of times.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 01, 2020, 08:40:53 PM
I think his dad was that high after the gulf war, but it is rare as I mentioned.  Handful of times.

Or maybe it speaks to opportunity... [lost]

Quote from: Pakuni on May 01, 2020, 08:21:32 PM
The Swedish government could invade Russia and 80 percent of the population would support it. Trust and support for big government is a quintessential characteristic of the Swedes.
The American right's sudden embrace of a socialist European government has been something to behold.
Pandemics make for strange bedfellows.

And the american left's disdain for the democratic socalism of sweden is also something to behold.

Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on May 01, 2020, 10:07:07 PM
And the american left's disdain for the democratic socalism of sweden is also something to behold.

The american left:

@realDonaldTrump: Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

Quote from: Pakuni on May 01, 2020, 08:21:32 PM
The Swedish government could invade Russia and 80 percent of the population would support it. Trust and support for big government is a quintessential characteristic of the Swedes.
The American right's sudden embrace of a socialist European government has been something to behold.
Pandemics make for strange bedfellows.

One thing that's clear is the Swedish government respects its citizens and trusts them to follow guidelines and act responsibly. Therefore basic freedoms aren't rescinded even in a time of emergency. Seems libertarian in principle.

Our response/approach has been much more authoritarian.

Don't get me wrong. I can envision circumstances where a quasi martial law would be necessary. Maybe this was one. But I'm not 100% convinced.

Unfortunately the crowds at the beaches and over St. Patrick's Day weekend, as well as some of the current protests,  have pretty much shown that we won't follow guidelines and behave responsibly.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 01, 2020, 10:39:10 PM
One thing that's clear is the Swedish government respects its citizens and trusts them to follow guidelines and act responsibly. Therefore basic freedoms aren't rescinded even in a time of emergency. Seems libertarian in principle.

Our response/approach has been much more authoritarian.

Don't get me wrong. I can envision circumstances where a quasi martial law would be necessary. Maybe this was one. But I'm not 100% convinced.

Luckily, you live in Florida. You still have the freedom to go out and mingle with your friends at the beach. And don't bother with those silly face masks. Just the libs trying to cause panic.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 01, 2020, 10:39:10 PM
One thing that's clear is the Swedish government respects its citizens and trusts them to follow guidelines and act responsibly. Therefore basic freedoms aren't rescinded even in a time of emergency. Seems libertarian in principle.

Our response/approach has been much more authoritarian.

"Much more authoritarian?"

Don't get me wrong, it has been more authoritarian, but the difference between us and Sweden isn' THAT extreme.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 02, 2020, 06:50:14 AM

"Much more authoritarian?"

Don't get me wrong, it has been more authoritarian, but the difference between us and Sweden isn' THAT extreme.

I have no quibble about removing the word "much" from my statement.

Quote from: Warriors4ever on May 01, 2020, 11:01:17 PM
Unfortunately the crowds at the beaches and over St. Patrick's Day weekend, as well as some of the current protests,  have pretty much shown that we won't follow guidelines and behave responsibly.

^This.

Compare and contrast the U.S. with New Zealand in how our populace acts. Yes, New Zealand is very different in terms of size, density, and ability to lock down boarders, I am not talking about those comparisons, I am talking about how people act.

Kiwis were told in scientific terms what was needed to shut down the virus--strict quarantine, no movement between areas, etc., and they complied. Is that Authoritarian? Compare that to the U.S. where people flood beaches and the government supports re-open demonstrations that go against its own stated policies. Not sure if that is Libertarian or tacit Anarchy. Either way, because enough of our people have refused to follow the guidelines, we're in for a long, continued wave.

(https://www.teamjimmyjoe.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/funny-misspelled-signs-liberty-tyranny.jpg)

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 01, 2020, 10:39:10 PM
One thing that's clear is the Swedish government respects its citizens and trusts them to follow guidelines and act responsibly. Therefore basic freedoms aren't rescinded even in a time of emergency. Seems libertarian in principle.

Is that why Sweden was backfilling their parks with manure to keep people out and to avoid increasing the spread of COVID? Because they respected and trusted their citizens to act responsibly.

Quote from: Jockey on May 01, 2020, 11:31:09 PM
Luckily, you live in Florida. You still have the freedom to go out and mingle with your friends at the beach. And don't bother with those silly face masks. Just the libs trying to cause panic.

Florida beaches have been and still are closed except for Duval county.

On TripAdvisor's Florida forum local posters are saying that most beaches are now open.

Quote from: Warriors4ever on May 02, 2020, 10:10:52 AM
On TripAdvisor's Florida forum local posters are saying that most beaches are now open.

Forgot Brevard county. You can't stop or lay down.
Some sparse panhandle ones have opened.
Pinellas county, St Pete area will reopen Monday with restrictions. Most populated areas still closed.
List here: https://floridapolitics.com/archives/325997-which-florida-beaches-are-closed-which-are-still-open

Quote from: Pakuni on May 01, 2020, 08:21:32 PM
The Swedish government could invade Russia and 80 percent of the population would support it. Trust and support for big government is a quintessential characteristic of the Swedes.
The American right's sudden embrace of a socialist European government has been something to behold.
Pandemics make for strange bedfellows.

I had started typing a response in this thread a day or two ago, but then deleted it because I hadn't thought it through - but in part, it asked if anyone has read a nice summary of the current status of Swedish politics that they could pass along?  In this thread, we're sort of operating on a very basic understanding of democratic socialism as a stand-in.  But has Swedish politics seen the same right turn as in the US, UK and much of western Europe?  If so, that would seem to explain a lot.  In that lens, we're seeing an alternative stragegy being employed by a government that would be more influenced by libertarian, right-leaning principles, bringing resources to bear that have been accumulated through decades building a social safety net. 

So long as that government is operating in good faith for what it thinks is best for its citizens (I've seen no reason to think they're not) I think that would be as good a plan as any.  Yes the death rates are higher right now, but are the hospitals overrun?  If not, it seems to me that anyone that thinks we are in for spikes and relapses in the US this summer and autumn should be bullish on Sweden's strategy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-open-no-lockdown-effects-result-anders-tengell-a9495806.html


Even Sweden's leading epidemiologist is saying 'Sweden?'

Why not compare to the Canadian response?

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21242750/coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-canada-trump-trudeau

Quote from: tower912 on May 04, 2020, 05:06:47 PM
Why not compare to the Canadian response?

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21242750/coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-canada-trump-trudeau

Feels like population density is being greatly understated in that article.  California has more population than all of Canada.  Population density (see NYC) can be a big problem for this disease.  Canada is the 228th most densely populated country / territory in the world.  Near the bottom. About 4 people per Kilometer squared where the USA has 9X that amount in the same geographical comparison.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 04, 2020, 06:57:51 PM
Feels like population density is being greatly understated in that article.  California has more population than all of Canada.  Population density (see NYC) can be a big problem for this disease.  Canada is the 228th most densely populated country / territory in the world.  Near the bottom. About 4 people per Kilometer squared where the USA has 9X that amount in the same geographical comparison.

Covid Cases:

Toronto: 6,278
Montreal:  16,606
Vancouver: 2,760

NYC: 170,534

Yes, NYC is more dense than those three cities, but if you think that's the only difference, you're nuts.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 04, 2020, 07:09:13 PM
Covid Cases:

Toronto: 6,278
Montreal:  16,606
Vancouver: 2,760

NYC: 170,534

Yes, NYC is more dense than those three cities, but if you think that's the only difference, you're nuts.

There are a number of differences, but that is one important one.

NYC has a pop density of 27K per square mile. 

Montreal is about 10K per square mile
Toronto is 11K
Vancouver 14K

There is no comparison to what NYC has and that is where most of our cases are.

The number of inbound population from tourists and business also pales in comparison.  They had a different problem to deal with and the author doesn't spend one minute on those important points.

I read Vox quite a bit, but I also know they are coming from the far left. 

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 04, 2020, 06:57:51 PM
Feels like population density is being greatly understated in that article.  California has more population than all of Canada.  Population density (see NYC) can be a big problem for this disease.  Canada is the 228th most densely populated country / territory in the world.  Near the bottom. About 4 people per Kilometer squared where the USA has 9X that amount in the same geographical comparison.

Toronto has about the same population density as Philadelphia, and less than half the cases
Vancouver has roughly the same population density as Boston, and a quarter as many cases.

Population density matters in the spread of any virus, but there's a lot more to the differences between the two countries; experiences with COVID-19 than density.

Quote from: Pakuni on May 04, 2020, 07:24:45 PM
Toronto has about the same population density as Philadelphia, and less than half the cases
Vancouver has roughly the same population density as Boston, and a quarter as many cases.

Population density matters in the spread of any virus, but there's a lot more to the differences between the two countries; experiences with COVID-19 than density.

Yes, there is more to it.  Wish the article at least acknowledged that population density matters. 

Deaths per 1M:

Sweden  301
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

What about Brazil?

Quote from: TSmith34 on May 07, 2020, 10:16:53 AM
Deaths per 1M:

Sweden  301
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

Can I help fill in some missing information?  The bolded countries also took a different stance than Sweden.  The same points keep coming up.  No one knows at this point in time if their decision was correct or not.  If it is, they should have more deaths earlier in the cycle as they try for herd immunity.  If they are wrong, then some people died unnecessarily by polices that were lax.


Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
Netherlands 309
Sweden  301

USA 232
Switzerland 209
Canada 117
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 07, 2020, 10:46:01 PM
Can I help fill in some missing information?  The bolded countries also took a different stance than Sweden.  The same points keep coming up.  No one knows at this point in time if their decision was correct or not.  If it is, they should have more deaths earlier in the cycle as they try for herd immunity.  If they are wrong, then some people died unnecessarily by polices that were lax.


Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
Netherlands 309
Sweden  301

USA 232
Switzerland 209
Canada 117
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

So earlier you stated Australia was a poor comparison for New Zealand (which is wrong btw) but now you are comparing  Spain with Sweden?

Quote from: MarquetteDano on May 07, 2020, 10:52:24 PM
So earlier you stated Australia was a poor comparison for New Zealand (which is wrong btw) but now you are comparing  Spain with Sweden?

I don't think I am which is why so many other countries were added, many of them as dissimilar as possible. Canada is nothing like Spain or Belgium. The deaths per 1/Mil at least pulls us out of the absolute numbers game that some are playing to rile people up, but each country is different for a variety of reasons (population density, island nation, borders, health care, policies, tourism access points, age of citizenry, and a host of others.

What I don't understand is educated people know Sweden's choice would mean pulling deaths up in the time cycle continue to make a false comparative analysis.  That's Sweden's strategy, to pull contamination in the life cycle.  Comparing to other Nordic countries or any country from the current timeline doesn't make much sense.  They are still in the second inning of this.  A year from now if they have or have not achieved herd immunity, then we can all make a better decision on their choice.  Personally, I'm glad someone had the guts to try it. Even if they fail, the world is a better place knowing alternatives were tried.  We all learn from it for the future.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 07, 2020, 10:46:01 PM
Can I help fill in some missing information?  The bolded countries also took a different stance than Sweden.  The same points keep coming up.  No one knows at this point in time if their decision was correct or not.  If it is, they should have more deaths earlier in the cycle as they try for herd immunity.  If they are wrong, then some people died unnecessarily by polices that were lax.


Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
Netherlands 309
Sweden  301

USA 232
Switzerland 209
Canada 117
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

Hey Cheeks!

Just a reminder that YOU said that the best countries to compare to Sweden were Norway, Denmark and Finland!!!

You can go back to your goalpost shifting now.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 07, 2020, 11:08:30 PMComparing to other Nordic countries or any country from the current timeline doesn't make much sense. 

Uh....

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 27, 2020, 09:05:45 PM
Swedish population is an excellent comparison against other Scandinavian nations and even some other European nations.

Quote from: WarriorDad on April 28, 2020, 12:24:59 PMFinland was controlled by Sweden for more than 500 years which is why there are so many cultural similarities.

Could you at least TRY to be intellectually consistent? 

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 08, 2020, 04:45:01 AM
Uh....


Could you at least TRY to be intellectually consistent?

(https://media.giphy.com/media/p0RDMJGgMXF96/giphy.gif)

i fix dis

(https://i.giphy.com/media/p0RDMJGgMXF96/giphy.webp)

(You're welcome.)

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 08, 2020, 04:45:01 AM
Uh....


Could you at least TRY to be intellectually consistent?

Population, yes, but that doesn't cover all of it.  Population density, size of country, island vs land locked, ports of entry, centralized govt vs provincial, and so many others.  Even comparing pure population sizes has some holes.  Average age, men to women ratio, comobidities, race, economic status, pregnancy.

We can compare populations and make some great comparisons, but do you think it ends there without the other variables?  I do not.  Too simple to compare these countries to widely, but on a narrow scope there are some similarities in some areas.  How is that intellectually inconsistent? 

If only Sweden had had the foresight to clone itself at the beginning of this.

What a troll.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 08, 2020, 03:15:40 PM
Population, yes, but that doesn't cover all of it.  Population density, size of country, island vs land locked, ports of entry, centralized govt vs provincial, and so many others.  Even comparing pure population sizes has some holes.  Average age, men to women ratio, comobidities, race, economic status, pregnancy.

We can compare populations and make some great comparisons, but do you think it ends there without the other variables?  I do not.  Too simple to compare these countries to widely, but on a narrow scope there are some similarities in some areas.  How is that intellectually inconsistent? 

The point is you used nordic as a comparison first.  It was your idea.  And now that the numbers make your "Sweden has it right" argument look dumb, you now are arguing the comparison was bad.

Shifting goalposts at its finest.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 08, 2020, 04:45:01 AM
Uh....


Could you at least TRY to be intellectual?

FIFY

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 08, 2020, 05:37:09 PM

The point is you used nordic as a comparison first.  It was your idea.  And now that the numbers make your "Sweden has it right" argument look dumb, you now are arguing the comparison was bad.

Shifting goalposts at its finest.

Where have I said Sweden has it right?  How many times has my position been that I do not know if they have it right, but glad they took a chance to try something different.  Ultimately, none of us knows if they are right at this time.  Too many factors in play.

If you can find where I said they have it right please share with all of us. 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

Will Sweden lead the way out of this?

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 12, 2020, 09:40:02 PM
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

Will Sweden lead the way out of this?

No idea if Sweden's technique will be better from a health perspective in the long-run.  One thing I find interesting though is I figured Sweden's approach would lead to a much better economy than their neighbors,  given that things are more opened up.

However,  when I look at the GDP forecasts for Sweden versus other Nordic countries it doesn't look much better at all.  Am I looking in the wrong areas?  All of the forecasts show about the same GDP hit across Finland,  Norway, and Denmark.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 12, 2020, 09:40:02 PM
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

Will Sweden lead the way out of this?

Interesting read, but a few passages struck me as speculative at best and, in some instances, plainly wrong.
To wit:

"Sweden's response has not been perfect, but it has succeeded in bolstering immunity among the young and the healthy"

How could they possibly know this?

"Whether or not they have openly embraced the Swedish approach, many other countries are now trying to emulate aspects of it. Both Denmark and Finland have reopened schools for young children. Germany is allowing small shops to reopen. Italy will soon reopen parks, and France has a plan to allow some nonessential businesses to reopen, including farmers' markets and small museums, as well as schools and daycare centers."

No, no, no. These countries aren't emulating the Swedish approach. They're adhering to their own approach, which was to lock down things temporarily to ease the spread and then eventually phase in a reopening. This was the plan all along.

"Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine."

I'm unaware of any country or state that plans a lockdown until the development of a vaccine. Even the most restrictive of states - Illinois, Cali, New York - all have plans in place to begin easing restrictions in the coming weeks, and certainly well before the development of a vaccine.

"Managing the path to herd immunity means, above all, protecting the vulnerable. Sweden learned that the hard way, but the situation there is now under control."

So under control the government announced a new plan just yesterday to try to protect the vulnerable, recognizing that what they had been doing in that regard was a failure.

Lockdowns should not be fully lifted until a vaccine is available.  Do not think we will get any type of agreement on what that means in defining what is locked down and what is not, but clear that some are advocating some type of lockdown until a vaccine is found.  What if a vaccine is never found?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/world/lockdown-lift-vaccine-coronavirus-lancet-intl/index.html

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 13, 2020, 07:32:33 PM
Lockdowns should not be fully lifted until a vaccine is available.  Do not think we will get any type of agreement on what that means in defining what is locked down and what is not, but clear that some are advocating some type of lockdown until a vaccine is found.  What if a vaccine is never found?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/world/lockdown-lift-vaccine-coronavirus-lancet-intl/index.html

If a vaccine is never found, it probably won't matter

Quote from: Uncle Rico on May 13, 2020, 07:44:39 PM
If a vaccine is never found, it probably won't matter

#End of Days, a'ina?

Switzerland / Sweden what's the difference.  Barstool Sports founder on a rant tonight.


https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1260721488241418240?s=20

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 13, 2020, 10:15:11 PM
Switzerland / Sweden what's the difference.  Barstool Sports founder on a rant tonight.


https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1260721488241418240?s=20

Yeah he's a clown.

Sweden up to 8th most deaths per million population.  And if we take out the statistical outliers of San Marino, and Andorra (due to their low populations) then Sweden checks in at 6th.  All of this with zero evidence that they're approaching herd immunity.  They can't even keep up with Azerbaijan in terms of tests per 1m population.  Sweden currently 68th, but again if we take out the outliers, they're probably more like 50th.

Wonder when they'll end their experiment.

Too late to 'end' it.   They are committed.   Now just trying to manage it until the treatment regimen ('cure' some people say) and vaccine arrive.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on May 15, 2020, 02:55:49 PM
Yeah he's a clown.

Sweden up to 8th most deaths per million population.  And if we take out the statistical outliers of San Marino, and Andorra (due to their low populations) then Sweden checks in at 6th.  All of this with zero evidence that they're approaching herd immunity.  They can't even keep up with Azerbaijan in terms of tests per 1m population.  Sweden currently 68th, but again if we take out the outliers, they're probably more like 50th.

Wonder when they'll end their experiment.

Yeah, but unlike the rest of us idiots around the world, the Swedes have protected their economy. It's going fantasti .... oh, never mind.

Even without a full lockdown, Sweden's economy has not been unscathed. Preliminary evidence shows Sweden has suffered similar economic effects as its neighbors: The Swedish Central Bank projects the country's G.D.P. will contract by 7 to 10 percent this year, an estimate on par with the rest of Europe. (The European Commission projects the E.U. economy will contract by 7.5 percent.)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html

This is very good review of Sweeden/Covid issues....incl my take is that it has different factors at play than others...we cant compare country to country experiences without also taking in to account their differences:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Quote from: houwarrior on May 15, 2020, 03:10:33 PM
This is very good review of Sweeden/Covid issues....incl my take is that it has different factors at play than others...we cant compare country to country experiences without also taking in to account their differences:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

This is absolutely true. Sweden has so many factors that weigh in its favor - healthier population, better access to care, a populace more willing to follow government guidance, more single-person households, less dense urban areas, a culture that already embraces social distance, etc. And yet, its choices are leading to an inordinate number of deaths relative to similar populations.

Quote from: Pakuni on May 15, 2020, 03:15:35 PM
This is absolutely true. Sweden has so many factors that weigh in its favor - healthier population, better access to care, a populace more willing to follow government guidance, more single-person households, less dense urban areas, a culture that already embraces social distance, etc. And yet, its choices are leading to an inordinate number of deaths relative to similar populations

I don't know if you can say for certain that they are right or wrong with their choice at this point in time.  Its very evident that we as a society are unable to truly social distance ourselves for any great length of time.  I am not staying home quarantined for 12-18 months until we get a vaccine and neither are most others.  All we have done is delayed our cases and deaths while damaging our economy.  Lets see 4 months down the road if Sweden's death rates are way higher than ours and whose strategy worked best. 

Quote from: mufanatic on May 17, 2020, 01:13:19 PM
All we have done is delayed our cases and deaths while damaging our economy.

Well, it wasn't "all" we have done. We also kept our hospitals from being absolutely overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases. That seems pretty important.

But yes, it's still too early to know enough about a lot of this.

Quote from: mufanatic on May 17, 2020, 01:13:19 PM
I don't know if you can say for certain that they are right or wrong with their choice at this point in time.  Its very evident that we as a society are unable to truly social distance ourselves for any great length of time.  I am not staying home quarantined for 12-18 months until we get a vaccine and neither are most others.  All we have done is delayed our cases and deaths while damaging our economy.  Lets see 4 months down the road if Sweden's death rates are way higher than ours and whose strategy worked best.

A couple key facts you're missing.
- Sweden's death rate should be MUCH better than ours for all the reasons previously stated, but most importantly their population being much healthier and with better access to care. If it all evens out in the end, then Sweden failed.

- Sweden's economy also is damaged. Their central bank projects a 7 to 10 percent contraction this year. The CBO is projecting a 5.6 percent contraction for the U.S. GDP in 2020.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

Quote from: Pakuni on May 17, 2020, 01:44:37 PM
A couple key facts you're missing.
- Sweden's death rate should be MUCH better than ours for all the reasons previously stated, but most importantly their population being much healthier and with better access to care. If it all evens out in the end, then Sweden failed.

- Sweden's economy also is damaged. Their central bank projects a 7 to 10 percent contraction this year. The CBO is projecting a 5.6 percent contraction for the U.S. GDP in 2020.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

I'm not missing any facts.  Sweden has failed where we have failed.  Neither did a good job of protecting the vulnerable in nursing facilities.

I'm not saying their economy is not damaged.  Much like you can't make a judgement on a draft until a few years down the road, or how good Wojo is until you give him 5 years, you can't make a definitive judgement on who handled this better until later.  Our deaths could just as easily dwarf Sweden by the end of the year.  You know, the panic mongers who claim that we are opening up way too early.....maybe those original death totals were right on or even low.

Quote from: mufanatic on May 17, 2020, 04:51:29 PM
I'm not missing any facts.  Sweden has failed where we have failed.  Neither did a good job of protecting the vulnerable in nursing facilities.

I'm not saying their economy is not damaged.  Much like you can't make a judgement on a draft until a few years down the road, or how good Wojo is until you give him 5 years, you can't make a definitive judgement on who handled this better until later.  Our deaths could just as easily dwarf Sweden by the end of the year.  You know, the panic mongers who claim that we are opening up way too early.....maybe those original death totals were right on or even low.

So, you're saying if we act like Sweden we may get results like Sweden?
Good to know!

We're getting there.   Half assed measures at the federal level.   Higher death rates than our peer countries.   Worse recession than our peer countries.   

Quote from: tower912 on May 19, 2020, 10:22:56 AM
We're getting there.   Half assed measures at the federal level.   Higher death rates than our peer countries.   Worse recession than our peer countries.   

WE'RE NUMBER ONE!  WE'RE NUMBER ONE!  WE'RE NUMBER ONE!

Winning!

Quote from: tower912 on May 19, 2020, 10:35:52 AM
Winning!

Trump was right: I've gotten tired of so much winning.

Sweden leads Europe in per capita deaths over the last week.
Deaths per million now about four times that of Denmark, seven times that of Finland and eight times that of Norway.
Economic impact expected to be about the same as the EU overall.
Barring a significant second wave combined with the failure to develop a vaccine or effective treatment in the next 6-8 months, the strategy appears to be a mistake.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-casualties/sweden-tops-europe-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-over-last-seven-days-idUSKBN22V26A?il=0

Quote from: Pakuni on May 17, 2020, 01:44:37 PM
A couple key facts you're missing.
- Sweden's death rate should be MUCH better than ours for all the reasons previously stated, but most importantly their population being much healthier and with better access to care. If it all evens out in the end, then Sweden failed.

- Sweden's economy also is damaged. Their central bank projects a 7 to 10 percent contraction this year. The CBO is projecting a 5.6 percent contraction for the U.S. GDP in 2020.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

Why is UK, France, Spain death rates much worse than ours despite having a MUCH healthier population than the USA? 

Sweden's economy is contracting, so is New Zealand's which was hailed as the all glorious approach to fighting COVID.  What would Sweden's economic outlook have been if they reacted like everyone else?

Feels like it has to be said for the 100th time.  Still in the 2nd inning on this.  I am grateful to the Swedish people for taking this risk because someone had to do it.  They may be wrong, they may be proven right.  Way too early to tell.  Only a few weeks ago Andrew Cuomo was hailed here as the guy with the plan and DeSantis as a moron.  And that could change again for both of those two.  Things change by the hour with this disease and so many canont wait to do an I TOLD YOU SO that covers their beliefs.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 20, 2020, 01:18:42 PM
Why is UK, France, Spain death rates much worse than ours despite having a MUCH healthier population than the USA? 

1. More dense population areas
2. Slow to impose restrictions
3. Lack of needed medical supplies

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 20, 2020, 01:18:42 PM
Why is UK, France, Spain death rates much worse than ours despite having a MUCH healthier population than the USA? 

Sweden's economy is contracting, so is New Zealand's which was hailed as the all glorious approach to fighting COVID.  What would Sweden's economic outlook have been if they reacted like everyone else?

Feels like it has to be said for the 100th time.  Still in the 2nd inning on this.  I am grateful to the Swedish people for taking this risk because someone had to do it.  They may be wrong, they may be proven right.  Way too early to tell.  Only a few weeks ago Andrew Cuomo was hailed here as the guy with the plan and DeSantis as a moron.  And that could change again for both of those two.  Things change by the hour with this disease and so many canont wait to do an I TOLD YOU SO that covers their beliefs.

1. What Pakuni said.

Regarding Cuomo and DeSantis, one is following the science and known facts. The other is pissing into the wind and hoping it doesn't blow back on him.

Even if DeSantis doesn't end up with piss all over himself, he's still a moron.

Impress me.   Make the case for Brazil.

Quote from: tower912 on May 20, 2020, 02:54:21 PM
Impress me.   Make the case for Brazil.

I am grateful to the Swedish Brazillian people for taking this risk because someone had to do it.  They may be wrong, they may be proven right.  Way too early to tell. 

In the end, Sweden is doing the same thing as Brazil, only in a much less dramatic and more organized fashion.

Quote from: forgetful on May 20, 2020, 02:22:06 PM
1. What Pakuni said.

Regarding Cuomo and DeSantis, one is following the science and known facts. The other is pissing into the wind and hoping it doesn't blow back on him.

Even if DeSantis doesn't end up with piss all over himself, he's still a moron.

Cuomo was following science by sending elderly patients with COVID 19 back to nursing homes to infect more vulnerable, while DeSantis was a moron and in March issued directives doing the exact opposite?  You going to stick to that one?

Florida has followed the science and there is no second guessing that regardless of what your political stripes or ideology is.  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/

Before someone accuses me of posting a conservative article, shouldn't the bigger question be why moderate and liberal media aren't publishing the same article?  This is why I encourage people to read outside their comfort zone, otherwise you are drumbeat to death the same ideas all the time.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 21, 2020, 10:10:58 AM
Cuomo was following science by sending elderly patients with COVID 19 back to nursing homes to infect more vulnerable, while DeSantis was a moron and in March issued directives doing the exact opposite?  You going to stick to that one?

Florida has followed the science and there is no second guessing that regardless of what your political stripes or ideology is.  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/

Before someone accuses me of posting a conservative article, shouldn't the bigger question be why moderate and liberal media aren't publishing the same article?  This is why I encourage people to read outside their comfort zone, otherwise you are drumbeat to death the same ideas all the time.

He gets full credit when he stops supressing testing data.

But I do think one thing is clear from some of the anedotal evidence we have seen to date.  That outdoor crowds don't seem to be nearly the factor in spreading this as indoor spaces are. 

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 21, 2020, 10:10:58 AM
Cuomo was following science by sending elderly patients with COVID 19 back to nursing homes to infect more vulnerable, while DeSantis was a moron and in March issued directives doing the exact opposite?  You going to stick to that one?

Florida has followed the science and there is no second guessing that regardless of what your political stripes or ideology is.  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-ron-desantis-florida-covid-19-strategy/

Before someone accuses me of posting a conservative article, shouldn't the bigger question be why moderate and liberal media aren't publishing the same article?  This is why I encourage people to read outside their comfort zone, otherwise you are drumbeat to death the same ideas all the time.

You are being intellectually dishonest regarding Cuomo. The rule was that when patients, who previously resided at a nursing facility, are discharged from the hospital, they were to return to the nursing facility. If and only if, the nursing facility had the capacity and ability to continue treatment in a manner that isolated the patient. If not, alternative care would be provided.

Where should they have sent the patients, the hospitals said they need to go home. Federal rules said you couldn't send them to Gavitt, or the hospital ship. Those were for "hospital patients" only, which discharged patients are not. I fault nursing facilities there, for taking patients if they knew they couldn't support them. Why would they do so, "money".

What should have happened is the feds should have stepped in, and said discharged patients that are still COVID positive can be taken to Gavitt. Cuomo can't change federal rules.

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 10:31:45 AM
You are being intellectually dishonest regarding Cuomo. The rule was that when patients, who previously resided at a nursing facility, are discharged from the hospital, they were to return to the nursing facility. If and only if, the nursing facility had the capacity and ability to continue treatment in a manner that isolated the patient. If not, alternative care would be provided.

Where should they have sent the patients, the hospitals said they need to go home. Federal rules said you couldn't send them to Gavitt, or the hospital ship. Those were for "hospital patients" only, which discharged patients are not. I fault nursing facilities there, for taking patients if they knew they couldn't support them. Why would they do so, "money".

What should have happened is the feds should have stepped in, and said discharged patients that are still COVID positive can be taken to Gavitt. Cuomo can't change federal rules.

On brand

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 10:31:45 AM
You are being intellectually dishonest regarding Cuomo. The rule was that when patients, who previously resided at a nursing facility, are discharged from the hospital, they were to return to the nursing facility. If and only if, the nursing facility had the capacity and ability to continue treatment in a manner that isolated the patient. If not, alternative care would be provided.

Where should they have sent the patients, the hospitals said they need to go home. Federal rules said you couldn't send them to Gavitt, or the hospital ship. Those were for "hospital patients" only, which discharged patients are not. I fault nursing facilities there, for taking patients if they knew they couldn't support them. Why would they do so, "money".

What should have happened is the feds should have stepped in, and said discharged patients that are still COVID positive can be taken to Gavitt. Cuomo can't change federal rules.

Wrong. Florida mandated that hospitalized patients who were still COVID positive could not be readmitted to Nursing Homes. Cuomo could have done the same, and he even had a (still) empty ship ready, willing and able to accept such patients. Instead he sent them back to the Nursing Homes. He recently rescinded his previous order so this is no longer the case - but it was an awful decision (that had nothing to do with the feds) in the first place.

Lenny, I won't swear to this, but it is my recollection that no COVID patients were allowed on the ship.   

Quote from: tower912 on May 21, 2020, 11:00:00 AM
Lenny, I won't swear to this, but it is my recollection that no COVID patients were allowed on the ship.   

To start.  I believe they were allowed later on.  I don't know what the timing of everything was.

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/27/hospital-ship-comfort-ends-nyc-covid-19-mission-after-treating-182-patients

They did ultimately treat COVID patients.   

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 21, 2020, 10:56:43 AM
Wrong. Florida mandated that hospitalized patients who were still COVID positive could not be readmitted to Nursing Homes. Cuomo could have done the same, and he even had a (still) empty ship ready, willing and able to accept such patients. Instead he sent them back to the Nursing Homes. He recently rescinded his previous order so this is no longer the case - but it was an awful decision (that had nothing to do with the feds) in the first place.

Lenny, what you say is simply not true, or not possible. Where do you want the patients who are discharged to go? They can't stay in the hospitals, they needed the beds/capacity, and they no longer needed hospital care. The couldn't go to either Gavitt's or the hospital ship, both due to federal rules required they were hospital patients. Both only accepted hospital transfers. They were not, they were being discharged. Not to mention, since they didn't need hospital care, the federal run Gavitt's and hospital ship would have simply discharged them...to where?

So, they are to go home for care. But home is a nursing facility. There plan was perfectly reasonable, they should return to their home/nursing facility, provided the nursing facility can treat and isolate a COVID patient. If not, an alternative plan would be identified. The problem is nursing facilities wanted the money, so took patients they knew they couldn't handle. That broke a perfectly reasonable plan, and required change. Fortunately, we saw a decline in cases, and there was then excess capacity to keep the patients in house.

Florida never had a capacity issue. It isn't a remotely fair comparison.

Ideally we'd have COVID recovery wards at hotels or other temporary facilities. But those require health care workers. NY was out of those, which is why Gavitts was being run by the federal government...which meant federal rules.

He went with a non-ideal option, because there were no ideal options, and trusted nursing facilities to do the right thing. They didn't, they did the most financially lucrative thing, so he had to formulate a new plan.

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 11:26:38 AM
Lenny, what you say is simply not true, or not possible. Where do you want the patients who are discharged to go? They can't stay in the hospitals, they needed the beds/capacity, and they no longer needed hospital care. The couldn't go to either Gavitt's or the hospital ship, both due to federal rules required they were hospital patients. Both only accepted hospital transfers. They were not, they were being discharged. Not to mention, since they didn't need hospital care, the federal run Gavitt's and hospital ship would have simply discharged them...to where?

So, they are to go home for care. But home is a nursing facility. There plan was perfectly reasonable, they should return to their home/nursing facility, provided the nursing facility can treat and isolate a COVID patient. If not, an alternative plan would be identified. The problem is nursing facilities wanted the money, so took patients they knew they couldn't handle. That broke a perfectly reasonable plan, and required change. Fortunately, we saw a decline in cases, and there was then excess capacity to keep the patients in house.

Florida never had a capacity issue. It isn't a remotely fair comparison.

Ideally we'd have COVID recovery wards at hotels or other temporary facilities. But those require health care workers. NY was out of those, which is why Gavitts was being run by the federal government...which meant federal rules.

He went with a non-ideal option, because there were no ideal options, and trusted nursing facilities to do the right thing. They didn't, they did the most financially lucrative thing, so he had to formulate a new plan.

Forgetful

You say that Florida never "had a capacity problem" - so they could keep still contagious "recovered" nursing home patients in hospitals (rather tHan returning them to the nursing homes). It is my understanding that had Cuomo elected to use the (then and still) empty ship or the Javitt's Center he wouldn't have had a capacity problem either.

Bottom line: it was his edict that sent those infected people back into those nursing homes. Because of public outrage (and disastrous results) he has rescinded that edict. For you to try to pin this on the feds is disingenuous.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 21, 2020, 12:06:37 PM
Forgetful

You say that Florida never "had a capacity problem" - so they could keep still contagious "recovered" nursing home patients in hospitals (rather tHan returning them to the nursing homes). It is my understanding that had Cuomo elected to use the (then and still) empty ship or the Javitt's Center he wouldn't have had a capacity problem either.

Bottom line: it was his edict that sent those infected people back into those nursing homes. Because of public outrage (and disastrous results) he has rescinded that edict. For you to try to pin this on the feds is disingenuous.

Did you read what he typed?

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 21, 2020, 12:06:37 PM
Forgetful

You say that Florida never "had a capacity problem" - so they could keep still contagious "recovered" nursing home patients in hospitals (rather tHan returning them to the nursing homes). It is my understanding that had Cuomo elected to use the (then and still) empty ship or the Javitt's Center he wouldn't have had a capacity problem either.

Bottom line: it was his edict that sent those infected people back into those nursing homes. Because of public outrage (and disastrous results) he has rescinded that edict. For you to try to pin this on the feds is disingenuous.

Your proposal is a reasonable one, if I'm understanding it correctly. Where they transfer ill patients still requiring hospital care to Javitt's (sorry I kept using the wrong name), so they can keep patients that should be discharged in hospitals. It is reasonable, but I wonder about safety issues regarding transporting seriously ill patients. I also think there would have been substantial attacks on him the moment one of those patients dies because of transport.

And I'm not pinning this on the feds. I know one can read my text that way, but that is not my intent. My intent is that when we have multiple levels of regulations, state and federal, things become more complicated than those saying "Javitt's was empty" are admitting. Javitt's did end up allowing these patients to be sent there.

If I'm blaming anyone, it is the nursing facilities that took patients back in that they knew they couldn't care for properly. That is unacceptable. The blame lies there. Cuomo's original rule/plan was fine, as long as nursing facilities didn't get greedy...they did.

And Florida was allowing discharges to nursing homes of positive patients up until May 7th. 3-days before the  change in NY.

I was surprised to see this thread so active and no discussion of the serology study just released.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC)

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on May 21, 2020, 02:08:40 PM
I was surprised to see this thread so active and no discussion of the serology study just released.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC)

I was going to post that earlier, but at this point it almost feels like piling on.
The Swedish experiment to date has been a disaster. No evidence they're developing herd immunity more quickly than anyone else (if at all). No evidence that staying open has spared the economy. Death rates are worsening relative not only to their Nordic neighbors, but Europe as a whole.
Feel bad for those suffering as a result of what seems to be a terrible miscalculation.

Cue Cheeks arriving to say we can't possibly know if Sweden acted recklessly ...

Quote from: Pakuni on May 21, 2020, 02:20:30 PM
I was going to post that earlier, but at this point it almost feels like piling on.
The Swedish experiment to date has been a disaster. No evidence they're developing herd immunity more quickly than anyone else (if at all). No evidence that staying open has spared the economy. Death rates are worsening relative not only to their Nordic neighbors, but Europe as a whole.
Feel bad for those suffering as a result of what seems to be a terrible miscalculation.

Cue Cheeks arriving to say we can't possibly know if Sweden acted recklessly ...

I don't know.  My interpretation is They are about as bad as everyone else outside of scandanavian neighbors, germany and a handful of Asian countries.  I think the point is they aren't better off health wise and are taking a hit economically too. 

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on May 21, 2020, 02:27:01 PM
I don't know.  My interpretation is They are about as bad as everyone else outside of scandanavian neighbors, germany and a handful of Asian countries.  I think the point is they aren't better off health wise and are taking a hit economically too.

Excluding tiny nations like Andorra and San Marino, Sweden's deaths per million is sixth worse in the world. They're actually worse off than most, not just their neighbors and a few other places. Their deaths per million is even 21 percent higher than that of the U.S., and we're by no measure a success story.
Even more troubling, its death rate the past week is higher than any place in Europe.

One could try to argue - and some have - that it will even out once the Swedes have herd immunity, but this study shows that they're not markedly closer to obtaining herd immunity than countries that imposed strict lockdowns.

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on May 21, 2020, 02:08:40 PM
I was surprised to see this thread so active and no discussion of the serology study just released.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC)

I like how it says that they expected 1/3 of the city to have contracted the virus. Then say that the 7.3% that actually got it is roughly in line with the expectations/models. "maybe a percentage point lower".

I think I see the problems in Sweden's models. They thing 7.3% and 33% are only different by a percentage point.

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 02:52:10 PM
I like how it says that they expected 1/3 of the city to have contracted the virus. Then say that the 7.3% that actually got it is roughly in line with the expectations/models. "maybe a percentage point lower".

I think I see the problems in Sweden's models. They thing 7.3% and 33% are only different by a percentage point.

That was totally confusing.  The only Somewhat rational explanation I could come up with is that the target for herd immunity is assumed at like 50%.  But even that is a big gap from 7 to 15

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 02:52:10 PM
I like how it says that they expected 1/3 of the city to have contracted the virus. Then say that the 7.3% that actually got it is roughly in line with the expectations/models. "maybe a percentage point lower".

I think I see the problems in Sweden's models. They thing 7.3% and 33% are only different by a percentage point.

Noticed that too. Either Sweden's head epidemiologist is full of it or there's a mistake in the article about the numbers.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 21, 2020, 06:17:44 PM
Noticed that too. Either Sweden's head epidemiologist is full of it or there's a mistake in the article about the numbers.

Some discussion on this:

Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said the antibodies figure was "a bit lower than we'd thought", but added that it reflected the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of the capital's population had probably contracted the virus.
However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25% to have been infected by 1 May and Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising.
"It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that's the case it's surprising they are so wrong," he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. "Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

One thing I would note is that in late April the Swedish health authorities predicted that 33 percent  of Stockholm County would be infected by May 1. They then adjusted it to 26 percent by May 1. Now they're saying maybe "a little more than 20 percent" by May 21.

Quote from: Pakuni on May 21, 2020, 06:34:17 PM
Some discussion on this:

Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said the antibodies figure was "a bit lower than we'd thought", but added that it reflected the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of the capital's population had probably contracted the virus.
However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25% to have been infected by 1 May and Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising.
"It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that's the case it's surprising they are so wrong," he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. "Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

One thing I would note is that in late April the Swedish health authorities predicted that 33 percent  of Stockholm County would be infected by May 1. They then adjusted it to 26 percent by May 1. Now they're saying maybe "a little more than 20 percent" by May 21.

Not exactly trending positive.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on May 21, 2020, 12:18:17 PM
Did you read what he typed?

Every word. Either you didn't or you misunderstood his post or my response.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 21, 2020, 10:19:17 AM

He gets full credit when he stops supressing testing data.

But I do think one thing is clear from some of the anedotal evidence we have seen to date.  That outdoor crowds don't seem to be nearly the factor in spreading this as indoor spaces are.

Moving the goalposts on data then.  Why are we giving other governors full credit when their data has been mixed as CNN stated today, or overstated like Colorado and potentially New York?  Why are so many trying to have it both ways?

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 10:31:45 AM
You are being intellectually dishonest regarding Cuomo. The rule was that when patients, who previously resided at a nursing facility, are discharged from the hospital, they were to return to the nursing facility. If and only if, the nursing facility had the capacity and ability to continue treatment in a manner that isolated the patient. If not, alternative care would be provided.

Where should they have sent the patients, the hospitals said they need to go home. Federal rules said you couldn't send them to Gavitt, or the hospital ship. Those were for "hospital patients" only, which discharged patients are not. I fault nursing facilities there, for taking patients if they knew they couldn't support them. Why would they do so, "money".

What should have happened is the feds should have stepped in, and said discharged patients that are still COVID positive can be taken to Gavitt. Cuomo can't change federal rules.

If that is the case, why did he (Cuomo) change his orders two weeks ago.  That had nothing to do with federal rules, those were his directives.  The order is available online to see.  It was a state order, not a federal rule.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/05/21/why-governor-andrew-cuomo-praised-coronavirus-response-column/5220164002/

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 21, 2020, 08:05:05 PM
Moving the goalposts on data then.  Why are we giving other governors full credit when their data has been mixed as CNN stated today, or overstated like Colorado and potentially New York?  Why are so many trying to have it both ways?

Apparently you don't understand what shifting goalposts means cause I have done no such thing.

Here is the order on March 25th for Gov Cuomo, the important part is even underlined from his directive.  This is not a federal rule, and he changed course a few weeks ago.  How someone wants to defend this as a federal rule and completely against Science is baffling.  Both sides make mistakes, all levels of gov't have made mistakes.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/03/doh_covid19-_nhadmissionsreadmissions_-032520.pdf

Paragraph 5.  "No resident shall be denied Re-Admission or admission to the NH (nursing home) solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19.  NHs are prohibited from requiring  hospitalized resident who determined medically stable to be tested for COVID19 prior to admission or readmission"

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 20, 2020, 01:18:42 PM
I am grateful to the Swedish people for taking this risk because someone had to do it.  They may be wrong, they may be proven right.

I somehow glossed over this previously, but holy jeebus, this is gross. The Swedish people aren't lab rats to be experimented upon, Cheeks. The idea that someone "had to" take a risk with thousands of lives is inhuman. This isn't some 10th grade biology experiment.
I'd bet anything that is not how the Swedish health authorities view this. I'm sure they acted in what they honestly believed was in their people's best interests. I happen to believe they are wrong, and the evidence to this point sure seems to support that, but no way were they as cavalier with lives as you are.
But no doubt those who have died and their families appreciate your gratitude.

The people of New York did this.  Nobody knew wild spread was happening.  If 'going for herd immunity' was actually the goal, they did it 'better' and it didn't turn out great. Emerging markets are next for different reasons.  How much more evidence do we need that uncontrolled spread is bad for people- bad for the economy

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 21, 2020, 07:13:18 PM
Not exactly trending positive.

They may be wrong, they may be right.  Someone had to take the chance on this rather than everyone going down the same path. The Swedish people support the action, they want their civil liberties and to be treated like adults to make decisions.  It is not as if everything is open. Most of their deaths have been in nursing homes where they have openly admitted they screwed up.  Our politicians in blue and red states, and the federal level, refuse to admit the tragic handling of nursing homes. 

Still early in the process.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 21, 2020, 08:43:36 PM
Here is the order on March 25th for Gov Cuomo, the important part is even underlined from his directive.  This is not a federal rule, and he changed course a few weeks ago.  How someone wants to defend this as a federal rule and completely against Science is baffling.  Both sides make mistakes, all levels of gov't have made mistakes.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/03/doh_covid19-_nhadmissionsreadmissions_-032520.pdf

Paragraph 5.  "No resident shall be denied Re-Admission or admission to the NH (nursing home) solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19.  NHs are prohibited from requiring  hospitalized resident who determined medically stable to be tested for COVID19 prior to admission or readmission"

Are you being intentionally intellectually dishonest again?

1. The federal rule, that I mentioned, was clearly articulated as a federal rule on who could be admitted to Javits. There was a 25 point checklist, that had to be satisfied, before a patient could be admitted to Javits. It was a federal rule, and precluded the nursing home patients. The 25 point checklist made it almost impossible for patients to be admitted.

2. There is no one debating the language of the original rule. You left off the part of the rule though that stated if they could not properly care for the patient, including maintaining isolation, alternative arrangements would be made. The rule was exactly what you have underlined above, you couldn't deny a patient "solely" due to prior COVID status, you could deny based on inability to care for said patient properly.

If you are looking for a bad guy here, look at the nursing homes that accepted patients they couldn't care for and the nursing homes that were refusing to test patients, and were hiding bodies instead of alerting authorities.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 21, 2020, 08:56:07 PM
They may be wrong, they may be right.  Someone had to take the chance on this rather than everyone going down the same path. The Swedish people support the action, they want their civil liberties and to be treated like adults to make decisions.  It is not as if everything is open. Most of their deaths have been in nursing homes where they have openly admitted they screwed up.  Our politicians in blue and red states, and the federal level, refuse to admit the tragic handling of nursing homes. 

Still early in the process.

Everyone has their civil liberties Cheeks. 

Anyway, continuously defending Sweden isn't really a good look.  But that's never really stopped you before.

The National Review was touting Sweden as a model for the world on May 3.
Now even they've jumped ship.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/how-does-the-swedish-model-look-right-now/#slide-1

I will say this, I wish Sweden's approach worked.  Really it would give me reassurance since everything is opening up here.  But I fear it shows that we will be in for a rough ride.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on May 22, 2020, 08:15:30 AM
I will say this, I wish Sweden's approach worked.  Really it would give me reassurance since everything is opening up here.  But I fear it shows that we will be in for a rough ride.

Wholeheartedly agree.  I think we're going to be trying to take care of smaller outbreaks for months.  Hopefully we can keep them under control.

Quote from: Pakuni on May 22, 2020, 08:06:54 AM
The National Review was touting Sweden as a model for the world on May 3.
Now even they've jumped ship.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/how-does-the-swedish-model-look-right-now/#slide-1

The article itself states that it is too early to tell if their strategy will work.  Meanwhile California has a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last 4 weeks.  We don't know the ramifications of the amounts of deaths that could of been saved due to hospitals being shut down and children are not getting immunized.  Who knows who is counting what data and demographics play a role too.  There could be a second worse wave and who knows what else. 

It sounds like the Swedes are at the moment comfortable with their strategy while ours is a mess.

Its just too early to tell whose strategy is the best or has failed.

 

This is going to be one of those times that the entity involved is going to admit their mistake and 'some people' are still going to be defending the admittedly wrong choice.

Quote from: mufanatic on May 22, 2020, 09:15:23 AM
Meanwhile California has a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last 4 weeks. 

Could you provide some evidence of this, please?

I saw a Washington Examiner quoting a local ABC affiliate in Northern California.

Quote from: tower912 on May 22, 2020, 10:05:42 AM
I saw a Washington Examiner quoting a local ABC affiliate in Northern California.

I saw that also. It was one doctor from one hospital making a comment on his own experience with no statistical evidence to support it.
I'm wondering how that got that extrapolated for the entire state of California, especially when there's actual evidence to the contrary out there (see below), albeit from just one county ... which is still better than one doctor.

Well, I mean, I do know how it happened. Just look at who's pushing the narrative.

https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/article242738356.html

Also, there are significantly fewer deaths from the flu, car accidents, etc., due to the quarantine. Let's say there are some areas of increased death too, the net affect, is that overall deaths from other causes are likely down. And we have also saved lives in quarantine from Corona too.

Quote from: forgetful on May 21, 2020, 09:34:35 PM
Are you being intentionally intellectually dishonest again?

Always

What would ABBA say about the response?  That is all that really matters.   :)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/abbas-bjrn-ulvaeus-too-soon-to-decide-on-swedens-virus-response.html

Just like that, UK's rate is back to number one in the world.

No, they are not lab rats and the citizens don't believe they are either.  They continue to support their gov't stance.

One other fact, deaths are on the decline in Sweden.  They may be right, they may be wrong but it is way too early to know.

Long live ABBA.

Cuomo's response to New York Nursing homes is borderline criminal and was not based on science.  It was anti science.  We knew in February how this was impacting the elderly, we knew even more in March.  Somehow you are defending his edict and not giving credit to DeSantis for actually using science to purposely not make the same mistake.

This is how locked into biases people are that as long as a D or a R is next to their name, they prejudge the outcomes without looking at the data.  There is no defense for Cuomo in NHs and DeSantis got it right.  One used science, the other did not.

Need to catch a flight for the weekend.  Everyone be safe.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 22, 2020, 11:46:45 AM
What would ABBA say about the response?  That is all that really matters.   :)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/abbas-bjrn-ulvaeus-too-soon-to-decide-on-swedens-virus-response.html

Just like that, UK's rate is back to number one in the world.

No, they are not lab rats and the citizens don't believe they are either.  They continue to support their gov't stance.

One other fact, deaths are on the decline in Sweden.  They may be right, they may be wrong but it is way too early to know.

Long live ABBA.

"Fernando" is one of the worst "hit" songs of all time. God, how I hate ABBA.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 22, 2020, 01:39:54 PM
"Fernando" is one of the worst "hit" songs of all time. God, how I hate ABBA.

I heard "Fernando" a day or two ago and couldn't turn it off because it was so bad. 

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 22, 2020, 01:39:54 PM
"Fernando" is one of the worst "hit" songs of all time. God, how I hate ABBA.

Thanks for the earworm, lenny, you basterd.   ;D

Quote from: Lennys Tap on May 22, 2020, 01:39:54 PM
"Fernando" is one of the worst "hit" songs of all time. God, how I hate ABBA.

Spot on.

Say what you want about ABBA, but they've brought Scoop an exceedingly rare area of total agreement.

(https://i.giphy.com/media/26uff19P1Rvfk3tNC/giphy.webp)

Quote from: Pakuni on May 22, 2020, 02:37:48 PM
Say what you want about ABBA, but they've brought Scoop an exceedingly rare area of total agreement.

(https://i.giphy.com/media/26uff19P1Rvfk3tNC/giphy.webp)

Kumbaya, pakuni.   ;D

Important link? 

Vitamin D deficiency and COVID deaths. 

https://youtu.be/tBSfIckPV44


In the clip, mentions African Americans in particular because melanin in skin often causes deficiency in Vitamin D.  Also mentions the Somalis in Sweden and other African immigrants in countries like the UK and northern nations.  Somalis make up 5% of Swedish deaths despite only 1% of the population.

Vitamin D appears to be a potential link to Sweden, African Americans and the general idea pushed by some scientists that the Sun is a good thing in the battle against the virus.

Dr. John Campbell has a Youtube popular channel where he discusses COVID related topics every day.

He's done several on Vitamin D .. same conclusions as the above video:  Take it.   There's decent enough theory and evidence that it reduces death, reduces severity of COVID.

Frankly, I'm bewildered why this advice isn't broadcast heavily, e.g., Vitamin D should be given out like candy.  It's so cheap .. $4 bucks is a YEAR supply.   It should be plastered all over the news.

https://youtu.be/GCSXNGc7pfs

100% agree.

Sounds like Vitamin D is something about which we really can ask:

What the hell do you have to lose?

Seriously.

Quote from: MU82 on May 31, 2020, 09:47:11 AM
Sounds like Vitamin D is something about which we really can ask:

What the hell do you have to lose?

Seriously.

While it is a far sight safer than HQC,  there are issues with excessive doses. Given Americans penchant for more is better, it should be advised not to take excessive amounts.  But yeah, probably not a lot of downside.

6 Side Effects of Too Much Vitamin D

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-side-effects#8

Quote from: pbiflyer on May 31, 2020, 10:03:34 AM
While it is a far sight safer than HQC,  there are issues with excessive doses. Given Americans penchant for more is better, it should be advised not to take excessive amounts.  But yeah, probably not a lot of downside.

6 Side Effects of Too Much Vitamin D

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-side-effects#8

Dang it!

Quote from: pbiflyer on May 31, 2020, 10:03:34 AM
While it is a far sight safer than HQC,  there are issues with excessive doses. Given Americans penchant for more is better, it should be advised not to take excessive amounts.  But yeah, probably not a lot of downside.

6 Side Effects of Too Much Vitamin D

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-side-effects#8

Crap

(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/417371971576659968/wKpPaEfY.jpeg)

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Quote from: pbiflyer on May 31, 2020, 10:03:34 AM
While it is a far sight safer than HQC,  there are issues with excessive doses. Given Americans penchant for more is better, it should be advised not to take excessive amounts.  But yeah, probably not a lot of downside.

6 Side Effects of Too Much Vitamin D

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-side-effects#8

If you drink too much water you can die, too.

Too much of anything is a problem

Quote from: Pakuni on May 21, 2020, 02:20:30 PM
I was going to post that earlier, but at this point it almost feels like piling on.
The Swedish experiment to date has been a disaster. No evidence they're developing herd immunity more quickly than anyone else (if at all). No evidence that staying open has spared the economy. Death rates are worsening relative not only to their Nordic neighbors, but Europe as a whole.
Feel bad for those suffering as a result of what seems to be a terrible miscalculation.

Cue Cheeks arriving to say we can't possibly know if Sweden acted recklessly ...

Sweden's economy grew.  There is your evidence.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/sweden-s-economy-posts-surprise-upside-amid-lax-covid-19-plan

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 31, 2020, 12:31:37 PM
Sweden's economy grew.  There is your evidence.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/sweden-s-economy-posts-surprise-upside-amid-lax-covid-19-plan

That makes sense.  I was a bit surprised when all of the GDP forecasts had Sweden's economy shrinking about the same as their neighbors.  To me this does not really settle the argument at all though as on the one hand the economy didn't get hit as bad as their neighbors,  but it isn't like people think where if everything is open the economy does not still take a hit.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 31, 2020, 12:31:37 PM
Sweden's economy grew.  There is your evidence.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/sweden-s-economy-posts-surprise-upside-amid-lax-covid-19-plan

Evidence of what?
The economy grew 0.1 percent. In the first quarter. Want to wager that all of that growth occurred before March?
Their full-year forecast remains grim like the rest of the world.

In the meantime, Sweden now has 4,395 COVID deaths, compared to 1,127 in Denmark, Finland and Norway combined.
Sweden's death rate is four times greater than Denmark, 7.5 times greater than Finland and 10 times greater than Norway.
Those countries economies, by the way, shrank between 0.9 and 1.9 percent in the first quarter.

So, Sweden traded thousands of lives for a 0.1 percent growth rate and a fantasy about speedy acquisition of herd immunity.
Hurray?

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 31, 2020, 12:31:37 PM
Sweden's economy grew.  There is your evidence.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/sweden-s-economy-posts-surprise-upside-amid-lax-covid-19-plan

It grew in the first quarter. So January through March. That's not really a surprise since they didn't shut things down. And the article says they aren't going to escape a recession.

Quote from: MarquetteDano on May 31, 2020, 12:47:18 PM
That makes sense.  I was a bit surprised when all of the GDP forecasts had Sweden's economy shrinking about the same as their neighbors.  To me this does not really settle the argument at all though as on the one hand the economy didn't get hit as bad as their neighbors,  but it isn't like people think where if everything is open the economy does not still take a hit.

Everything is a trade off at the moment.  Bloomberg News wrote an article two weeks ago predicting savage economic situation to Sweden.  Forgive more for thinking it was some more cheerleading by people hoping for a bad outcome.  Everything is so political today.  Everything.

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 31, 2020, 01:35:40 PM
Everything is a trade off at the moment.  Bloomberg News wrote an article two weeks ago predicting savage economic situation to Sweden.  Forgive more for thinking it was some more cheerleading by people hoping for a bad outcome.  Everything is so political today.  Everything.

Stop being such a phony. You're the most political Scooper ever. Your posts on this topic from the very beginning, along with your ongoing refusal to concede Sweden very likely got it wrong, are entirely about your personal politics. You don't care about Sweden. You care about finding a way to be critical of (mostly Democratic) governors who enacted lockdowns.
The Swedish strategy cost thousands of lives. Fact.
You cavalierly call those deaths a "trade off." Some of us call it a tragedy. For you, Sweden is nothing more than a political talking point and the people there are nothing more than guinea pigs whose lives are all part of a grand experiment to see who's right (lest we forget your "somebody had to try it" remarks). The reality is the Swedish government chose a reckless path and its people have paid dearly for it.

Quote from: Pakuni on May 31, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
Stop being such a phony. You're the most political Scooper ever. Your posts on this topic from the very beginning, along with your ongoing refusal to concede Sweden very likely got it wrong, are entirely about your personal politics. You don't care about Sweden. You care about finding a way to be critical of (mostly Democratic) governors who enacted lockdowns.
The Swedish strategy cost thousands of lives. Fact.
You cavalierly call those deaths a "trade off." Some of us call it a tragedy. For you, Sweden is nothing more than a political talking point and the people there are nothing more than guinea pigs whose lives are all part of a grand experiment to see who's right (lest we forget your "somebody had to try it" remarks). The reality is the Swedish government chose a reckless path and its people have paid dearly for it.

+1

Quote from: WarriorDad on May 31, 2020, 01:35:40 PM
Everything is a trade off at the moment.  Bloomberg News wrote an article two weeks ago predicting savage economic situation to Sweden.  Forgive more for thinking it was some more cheerleading by people hoping for a bad outcome.  Everything is so political today.  Everything.

"The desire to be right all the time, push buttons, get the last word in, etc.  Just not good... UGH. Embarrassing." –Jams

And congratulations on getting two more threads locked, Cheeks, and extending your Scoop all-time record.

Quote from: TSmith34 on May 31, 2020, 04:40:19 PM
"The desire to be right all the time, push buttons, get the last word in, etc.  Just not good... UGH. Embarrassing." –Jams

And congratulations on getting two more threads locked, Cheeks, and extending your Scoop all-time record.

Yet people argue with Chico and Elon every day. That's all they are here for.

If everyone stopped responding to them, they would go away.

Quote from: Jockey on May 31, 2020, 08:13:52 PM
Yet people argue with Chico and Elon every day. That's all they are here for.

If everyone stopped responding to them, they would go away.

I mean, are you self aware?

Quote from: Pakuni on May 31, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
Stop being such a phony. You're the most political Scooper ever. Your posts on this topic from the very beginning, along with your ongoing refusal to concede Sweden very likely got it wrong, are entirely about your personal politics. You don't care about Sweden. You care about finding a way to be critical of (mostly Democratic) governors who enacted lockdowns.
The Swedish strategy cost thousands of lives. Fact.
You cavalierly call those deaths a "trade off." Some of us call it a tragedy. For you, Sweden is nothing more than a political talking point and the people there are nothing more than guinea pigs whose lives are all part of a grand experiment to see who's right (lest we forget your "somebody had to try it" remarks). The reality is the Swedish government chose a reckless path and its people have paid dearly for it.

There is nothing to concede on Sweden. It is much too early to tell, but you are hellbent on being right all the time and cheering for an outcome.  I am not.  You are not a epidemiologist nor am I.  Scientists, their scientists, chose a path.  It may be right, and it may not.  We will find out down the road, but part of the analysis does have to factor in those tradeoffs.  You aren't factoring in deaths of suicides from economic hardships, or other lingering damage caused by decisions other countries chose.

I'm not a hyperpartisan like so many of you.  It is your way and anyone that disagrees is an idiot and wrong.  OK, that is your right to think that way.  We disagree.  It would be nice to see this play out, however, without all the cheerleading.

Several more articles yesterday and today about HCQ, including Yale University saying they will continue to push for it to be used early in prevention of the disease.  Also a forced correction by the Lancet in their test results that was barely mentioned because.   I'm an optimist, I want some of these things to work.  Some of you are absolutely thrilled they aren't.  You want Sweden to fail, you want some medical therapies to fail.  What an awful place we are in when politics drives everything you do.

"I'll stand up and be the first to admit being an epic hypocrite on this over the years.  100%.  OWNING IT! The worst at times." –Jams

OK, Cheeks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

Sweden's head epidemiologist admits he's got it wrong.

Any leader worth his salt will admit that he made some mistakes and miscalculations on this.     Sweden, with a society and culture vastly different from the ours, tried a different path.     There has been a price to pay.     Their death rate is much higher than that of their neighbors.   

'Some' keep obsessing about Sweden.     I would look at the 4 countries of Russia, England, Brazil, and the United States.    What are their infection and death rates compared to the rest of the world.     What do they have in common?

Quote from: tower912 on June 03, 2020, 08:01:26 AM
Any leader worth his salt will admit that he made some mistakes and miscalculations on this.     Sweden, with a society and culture vastly different from the ours, tried a different path.     There has been a price to pay.     Their death rate is much higher than that of their neighbors.   

'Some' keep obsessing about Sweden.     I would look at the 4 countries of Russia, England, Brazil, and the United States.    What are their infection and death rates compared to the rest of the world.     What do they have in common?

I think this is a little too narrow....there should be a cut of all Western/Latin countries.  Clearly though whenever there is untracked our uncontrolled spread of this virus, bad things happen.... 

Now that lack of control can come through ignorance, willful or otherwise.  I hope we have learned our lesson there.

Quote from: tower912 on June 03, 2020, 08:01:26 AM
I would look at the 4 countries of Russia, England, Brazil, and the United States.    What are their infection and death rates compared to the rest of the world.     What do they have in common?

Posted this yesterday in the main thread:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/briefing/coronavirus-populist-leaders.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200602&instance_id=19010&nl=the-morning&regi_id=98421546&segment_id=29853&te=1&user_id=65badcb7c07b4cd4815fe5e758510381

"The four leaders — Jair Bolsonaro, Donald J. Trump, Vladimir V. Putin and Boris Johnson — also have a lot of differences, of course, as do their countries. Yet all four subscribe to versions of what Daniel Ziblatt, a government professor at Harvard and co-author of the book "How Democracies Die," calls "radical right illiberal populism."

"The connection between populist leaders and bad outbreaks is not perfect. Viktor Orban in Hungary and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines are also illiberal populists who responded quickly. Case counts appear to be relatively low in both countries. Both Mr. Orban and Mr. Duterte have used the crisis as an excuse to crack down further on political opponents.
But global patterns usually include exceptions. "There is in fact a pattern," Mr. Levitsky said. "Populists don't like experts — or relying on experts — and an anti-expertise response to the new coronavirus is deadly."

Edit: Missed that Lenny had posted this earlier. My bad.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on June 03, 2020, 07:50:52 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

Sweden's head epidemiologist admits he's got it wrong.

Thanks for posting, Lenny.

First, it's nice to see a leader of any kind - medical, political, academic, financial, business, sports, science, etc - admit mistakes. Not nearly enough of this. There are some who will never do it, thinks it makes them look "weak" when the opposite is true.

As for COVID, maybe, at least temporarily, this will put to rest the narrative by far too many (though not many Scoopers, thankfully) that Sweden got it "right" by letting its citizens die and suffer while everybody else got it "wrong."

Quote from: MU82 on June 03, 2020, 09:30:41 AM
Thanks for posting, Lenny.

First, it's nice to see a leader of any kind - medical, political, academic, financial, business, sports, science, etc - admit mistakes. Not nearly enough of this. There are some who will never do it, thinks it makes them look "weak" when the opposite is true.

As for COVID, maybe, at least temporarily, this will put to rest the narrative by far too many (though not many Scoopers, thankfully) that Sweden got it "right" by letting its citizens die and suffer while everybody else got it "wrong."

Mike

I was certainly hoping that Sweden's head epidemiologist had it right but the numbers say otherwise. Once that happens it's time to change course. Wrong and stubborn is a bad (and lethal) combination for those looking for answers about this virus.

Sweden admitted some mistakes, the chief of the strategy also reiterated it was a good strategy and primarily at issue were the elderly.  This is no different than what he said 6 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago and again last week.

He specifically defended the lockdown strategy.  They have said for quite some time they did not adequately protect the elderly. 

"There are things that we could have done better but in general I think that Sweden has chosen the right way," Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said Wednesday, in an interview with Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter.

They look to improve on their approach, as they should.  Norway's leader last week said their country went too far and should have adopted more Swedish proposals.  Sounds to me like both countries are understanding the draconian approach was too much, and the too soft approach especially with the elderly was too little.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

Quote from: WarriorDad on June 04, 2020, 02:01:23 PM
Sweden admitted some mistakes, the chief of the strategy also reiterated it was a good strategy and primarily at issue were the elderly.  This is no different than what he said 6 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago and again last week.

He specifically defended the lockdown strategy.  They have said for quite some time they did not adequately protect the elderly. 

"There are things that we could have done better but in general I think that Sweden has chosen the right way," Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said Wednesday, in an interview with Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter.

They look to improve on their approach, as they should.  Norway's leader last week said their country went too far and should have adopted more Swedish proposals.  Sounds to me like both countries are understanding the draconian approach was too much, and the too soft approach especially with the elderly was too little.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

He was responding to reports on comments he made in an earlier interview with Swedish radio, which were widely interpreted as an admission of a failure. "If we were to encounter the same disease, given exactly what we know about it today, I think we would reach a conclusion to act somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did," Tegnell said in that interview.

WarriorDad celebrating the deaths in Sweden:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/YmMwqVCtyxFRe/giphy.gif)

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on June 04, 2020, 03:54:54 PM
WarriorDad celebrating the deaths in Sweden:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/YmMwqVCtyxFRe/giphy.gif)

It's more like:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/JRhS6WoswF8FxE0g2R/giphy.gif)

Quote from: Pakuni on June 04, 2020, 04:00:28 PM
It's more like:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/JRhS6WoswF8FxE0g2R/giphy.gif)

so it goes

Yeah, I sure wish we had that high a death rate AND the crappy economy that Sweden has (and we have). If only our leaders had been as sharp as Swedens, we could have at least a couple million less mouths to feed here. More for the rest of us!

Fluffy Blue Monster, Pakuni, Hards Alumni view on suicide increases from COVID reaction by their government.



(https://media2.giphy.com/media/92S5gReZGnDgY/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f29614b3ce6bb80e6cae331cb37c5568f9dc6dce5e2&rid=giphy.gif)

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/37tudDlY7a0w7qwqor/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f2920670f4546db77a1b0608b9641e93cd6b5d83669&rid=giphy.gif)

Quote from: WarriorDad on June 04, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
Fluffy Blue Monster, Pakuni, Hards Alumni view on suicide increases from COVID reaction by their government.

Oh I care.  I'm just not going to pretend that the number of suicides will exceed the number of Covid deaths like you are.

Quote from: WarriorDad on June 04, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
Fluffy Blue Monster, Pakuni, Hards Alumni view on suicide increases from COVID reaction by their government.



(https://media2.giphy.com/media/92S5gReZGnDgY/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f29614b3ce6bb80e6cae331cb37c5568f9dc6dce5e2&rid=giphy.gif)

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/37tudDlY7a0w7qwqor/giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f2920670f4546db77a1b0608b9641e93cd6b5d83669&rid=giphy.gif)

Except I do care.  People will find all sorts of reasons to kill themselves, and they should seek help before they come to that decision.  Never a single time did I say, nor even insinuate, that suicides related to COVID19 are necessary. 

Yet, you don't seem to care about the deaths in Sweden.  You've thanked them for their sacrifice and said that, "someone had to do it". 

Do you realize how ghoulish that sounds?  It's despicable.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on June 05, 2020, 07:47:18 AM
Except I do care.  People will find all sorts of reasons to kill themselves, and they should seek help before they come to that decision.  Never a single time did I say, nor even insinuate, that suicides related to COVID19 are necessary. 

Yet, you don't seem to care about the deaths in Sweden.  You've thanked them for their sacrifice and said that, "someone had to do it". 

Do you realize how ghoulish that sounds?  It's despicable.

Nobody has said, suggested or implied that any suicide is anything less than sad and tragic. Certainly nobody has thanked suicide victims for their sacrifice.
But at this point, it's all he's got.

Remember when some were making a big deal about a doctor claiming his hospital had seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in just four weeks of the lockdown?
It wasn't true, of course.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/doctor-california-coronavirus-suicide-lockdown

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on June 05, 2020, 07:47:18 AM
Except I do care.  People will find all sorts of reasons to kill themselves, and they should seek help before they come to that decision.  Never a single time did I say, nor even insinuate, that suicides related to COVID19 are necessary. 

Yet, you don't seem to care about the deaths in Sweden.  You've thanked them for their sacrifice and said that, "someone had to do it". 

Do you realize how ghoulish that sounds?  It's despicable.

Are you also tracking the number of suicides in Sweden for comparison?

Quote from: Greggery Peccary on June 05, 2020, 09:05:17 AM
Are you also tracking the number of suicides in Sweden for comparison?

I'm not because they are not relevant to Sweden's lockdown working or not working.  Suicide is entirely preventable if people seek help.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on June 05, 2020, 07:40:22 AM

Oh I care.  I'm just not going to pretend that the number of suicides will exceed the number of Covid deaths like you are.

In many places, suicide deaths are significantly lower than average. But it just FEELS that it should be higher, so that it what people go with.

hoopaloop shifts goalposts again ... and does it while both gaslighting and jumping the shark.

A very talented multitasker!

I appreciate warriordad laying to waste one of Chico's mewling canards.  Jamie always said that it doesn't matter what is said, it matters who says it.   Since WD is clearly not Chico's, but says the same things in the same way using much the same grammar,
engendering the same visceral reactions, clearly it is what is said, not who says it.

Quote from: tower912 on June 05, 2020, 11:22:09 AM
I appreciate warriordad laying to waste one of Chico's mewling canards.  Jamie always said that it doesn't matter what is said, it matters who says it.   Since WD is clearly not Chico's, but says the same things in the same way using much the same grammar,
engendering the same visceral reactions, clearly it is what is said, not who says it.

More importantly, tower, that was one hell of a use of the word, "mewling." I hadn't heard that one in a long time. And in combination with "canards," to boot.

As Miss Moneypenny once told James Bond, "You're such a cunning linguist!"

What about 'engendering' and 'visceral?'

Quote from: tower912 on June 05, 2020, 05:05:15 PM
What about 'engendering' and 'visceral?'

Don't get greedy.

Besides, a very vindictive certain someone will not like it if he finds out you're the one who actually has the best words.

Norway, Denmark and Finland have all closed their borders to people from Sweden.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-pariah-scandinavia.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Sweden is also requiring ALL students to attend school. Pre-existing conditions or family members who are higher risk to the virus are not an excuse. If parents refuse to send their child to school, Social Services will be notified and parents could lose custody.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-compels-parents-send-kids-to-school-2020-5

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on June 23, 2020, 07:20:21 AM
Norway, Denmark and Finland have all closed their borders to people from Sweden.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-pariah-scandinavia.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

And the EU is closing their borders to visitors from America.    Smart.   Don't let in people from countries that have failed to contain the virus.

Graphical Sweden update..

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1276698852448522240

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on June 27, 2020, 09:29:22 AM
Graphical Sweden update..

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1276698852448522240

I should know better, but I made the mistake of diving into the replies ... and hoo, boy. So much stupid.

Quote from: Pakuni on June 27, 2020, 11:03:13 AM
I should know better, but I made the mistake of diving into the replies ... and hoo, boy. So much stupid.

I did like person who, very politely, told us to "enjoy your riots."

Swedes sure are funny when they're not dropping dead in global pandemics.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/swedens-prime-minister-orders-an-inquiry-into-the-failure-of-the-countrys-no-lockdown-coronavirus-strategy/ar-BB16fGmB?li=BBnb7Kz

Funny that they are launching an inquiry into the failure when the USA is essentially copying them and Brazil at the federal level.   

If the rumors are true that the new policy is going to be 'Live with it,' then the Sweden advocates will be happy.

Their numbers on Worldometers haven't been making sense. Some days they haven't reported anything, yesterday they reported 100+ and the day before, 700+.

Quote from: Warriors4ever on July 04, 2020, 03:17:40 PM
Their numbers on Worldometers haven't been making sense. Some days they haven't reported anything, yesterday they reported 100+ and the day before, 700+.

Maybe they're intermittently trying POTUS' "if we don't test, there won't be any cases" strategy.

NYT: Sweden Has Become the World's Cautionary Tale

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?action=click&algo=top_conversion&block=trending_recirc&fellback=false&imp_id=583660427&impression_id=692904798&index=1&pgtype=Article&region=footer&req_id=765470591&surface=most-popular

Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden's economy has fared little better.

"They literally gained nothing," said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "It's a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains."

___________

As many of us have argued all along, you can't keep the economy running if a pandemic is running roughshod over your people. Deal with the virus first....

Quote from: GooooMarquette on July 07, 2020, 01:06:11 PM
NYT: Sweden Has Become the World's Cautionary Tale

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?action=click&algo=top_conversion&block=trending_recirc&fellback=false&imp_id=583660427&impression_id=692904798&index=1&pgtype=Article&region=footer&req_id=765470591&surface=most-popular

Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden's economy has fared little better.

"They literally gained nothing," said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "It's a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains."

___________

As many of us have argued all along, you can't keep the economy running if a pandemic is running roughshod over your people. Deal with the virus first....

"Here is one takeaway with potentially universal import: It is simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself. From Asia to Europe to the Americas, the risks of the pandemic have disrupted businesses while prompting people to avoid shopping malls and restaurants, regardless of official policy."

Exactly. 

Nut graph:

Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden's grim result — more death, and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.

As America leapfrogs them into the abyss.

Looking at Sweden's covid graphs tonight - they've had declining positive tests, and rapidly declining deaths - but then a spike back up (to only 10) deaths after a couple weeks of single digits.  Their positive cases also took a plummet after late June, so I'm not certain if:
1) people started acting differently after all the bad news / press
2) Businesses / government changed any guidelines
3) They're just winning... (still with a high death rate)

None of the answers to those are apparent after a quick google search.  If anyone has continued following, or know folks in Sweden, I'd be interested to hear more.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.se/20200721/swedish-island-recruits-medieval-knights-to-help-people-keep-a-distance/amp

The knights have been called into action.
Jousting poles work well to enforce social distancing.

I thought it was going to be about the Knights Hospitaliers of Malta.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-hoped-herd-immunity-curb-080003569.html


USA today opinion piece found on Yahoo.   Written by Swedish physicians.   Unknown how many believe a cause of infertility is having demon sex in your dreams.       Underlying theme, don't do what we did.   

Quote from: tower912 on July 29, 2020, 08:38:11 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-hoped-herd-immunity-curb-080003569.html


USA today opinion piece found on Yahoo.   Written by Swedish physicians.   Unknown how many believe a cause of infertility is having demon sex in your dreams.       Underlying theme, don't do what we did.   

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-28/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge?__twitter_impression=true

Quote from: PaceArrow02 on July 29, 2020, 10:15:20 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-28/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge?__twitter_impression=true

Context is important.
In the last week, Sweden has seen 1,122 new cases. Considering where they were, that's cause for celebration.
But neighboring Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen 437 new cases combined in the last week.

So yeah, Sweden has seen a drop from where it was - which was awful. But relative to their Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden continues to fare poorly.

Quote from: Pakuni on July 29, 2020, 10:27:42 AM
Context is important.
In the last week, Sweden has seen 1,122 new cases. Considering where they were, that's cause for celebration.
But neighboring Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen 437 new cases combined in the last week.

So yeah, Sweden has seen a drop from where it was - which was awful. But relative to their Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden continues to fare poorly.

People wanted us to be more like Sweden.  We are getting close in deaths per capita.  They are still worse but we are doing our best to catch up.

Quote from: Warriors4ever on July 22, 2020, 10:44:16 AM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.se/20200721/swedish-island-recruits-medieval-knights-to-help-people-keep-a-distance/amp

The knights have been called into action.
Jousting poles work well to enforce social distancing.

meanwhile, our federal government has called into action the Dismembered Knight from Monty Python.

Quote from: Pakuni on July 29, 2020, 10:27:42 AM
Context is important.
In the last week, Sweden has seen 1,122 new cases. Considering where they were, that's cause for celebration.
But neighboring Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen 437 new cases combined in the last week.

So yeah, Sweden has seen a drop from where it was - which was awful. But relative to their Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden continues to fare poorly.

And nevermind that the people of Sweden have taken it upon themselves to reduce the numbers.  They're social distancing, wearing masks, etc all on their own.

Quote from: PaceArrow02 on July 29, 2020, 10:15:20 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-28/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge?__twitter_impression=true

Never give up cheeks

Quote from: tower912 on July 29, 2020, 08:38:11 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-hoped-herd-immunity-curb-080003569.html


USA today opinion piece found on Yahoo.   Written by Swedish physicians.   Unknown how many believe a cause of infertility is having demon sex in your dreams.       Underlying theme, don't do what we did.   

Yep. This paragraph says it all:

In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief and suffering. On top of that, there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

Quote from: GooooMarquette on July 29, 2020, 02:03:11 PM
In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief and suffering. On top of that, there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

Completely disagree.  The United States has set an example for the rest of the world on how NOT to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

Fun listening to my German clients laugh at our expense.

Quote from: Pakuni on July 29, 2020, 10:27:42 AM
Context is important.
In the last week, Sweden has seen 1,122 new cases. Considering where they were, that's cause for celebration.
But neighboring Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen 437 new cases combined in the last week.

Strange that same context wasn't used with NY, NJ, CONN, etc who got hit hard early but aren't as in bad of shape.  Shocked you moved the goalposts a bit.

So yeah, Sweden has seen a drop from where it was - which was awful. But relative to their Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden continues to fare poorly.

Quote from: MarquetteDano on July 29, 2020, 03:39:54 PM
Completely disagree.  The United States has set an example for the rest of the world on how NOT to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

Fun listening to my German clients laugh at our expense.

Point taken. Either way, the US and Sweden are both running the race in the wrong direction.

Quote from: GooooMarquette on July 29, 2020, 04:56:35 PM

Point taken. Either way, the US and Sweden are both running the race in the wrong direction.

Yes.  Sorry.  Was snarky.  Just depressing knowing how poorly we have handled this.

Quote from: PaceArrow02 on July 29, 2020, 04:41:21 PM

Take a breath, count to 10 and compose your thoughts, Cheeks, cause this make zero sense.

Quote from: Pakuni on July 29, 2020, 09:41:15 PM
Take a breath, count to 10 and compose your thoughts, Cheeks, cause this make zero sense.

You're right that was not a well worded post.  Was in a rush to get to kids baseball practice.

What is the cheeks stuff?

Is it true that the Nordic countries (who are by and large doing very well vs COVID) are virtually mask free? If so, is there any explanation that makes sense?

Quote from: Lennys Tap on July 30, 2020, 12:35:20 PM
Is it true that the Nordic countries (who are by and large doing very well vs COVID) are virtually mask free? If so, is there any explanation that makes sense?

I read that article this morning as well.  It's a great question. 

My guess is that because they took the lock downs seriously early on.  They smothered the fire... whereas in the US we never really did that.  We put a blanket on the fire to smother it.. and it didn't work and now our blanket is on fire.

In more technical terms, the R0 in the Nordic countries was reduced to under 1 for long enough to 'reset' the starting point of the virus.  Whereas in the US the R0 never got low enough to postpone our outbreak for more than a week or two. 

My guess is that if numbers continue to rise in those countries you will see mask mandates.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on July 30, 2020, 12:35:20 PM
Is it true that the Nordic countries (who are by and large doing very well vs COVID) are virtually mask free? If so, is there any explanation that makes sense?

They did the work throughout their countries to bring it under control.   

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on July 30, 2020, 01:29:08 PM
I read that article this morning as well.  It's a great question. 

My guess is that because they took the lock downs seriously early on.  They smothered the fire... whereas in the US we never really did that.  We put a blanket on the fire to smother it.. and it didn't work and now our blanket is on fire.

In more technical terms, the R0 in the Nordic countries was reduced to under 1 for long enough to 'reset' the starting point of the virus.  Whereas in the US the R0 never got low enough to postpone our outbreak for more than a week or two. 

My guess is that if numbers continue to rise in those countries you will see mask mandates.

Spot on. I believe they have also been very selective in letting people from other places in. My understanding is that Norway still isn't letting residents of many EU nations in...much less people from other parts of the world.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on July 30, 2020, 12:35:20 PM
Is it true that the Nordic countries (who are by and large doing very well vs COVID) are virtually mask free? If so, is there any explanation that makes sense?

In many of the articles I've read about Sweden, even without a lockdown, the citizens still took it serious and did the requisite social distancing.  I'm not sure about mask usage but they did take some steps to lessen the blow. 

Quote from: Uncle Rico on July 30, 2020, 02:41:24 PM
In many of the articles I've read about Sweden, even without a lockdown, the citizens still took it serious and did the requisite social distancing.  I'm not sure about mask usage but they did take some steps to lessen the blow.

This is largely correct. Here is an article from NPR on April 26:

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says

Schools, restaurants and malls have remained open in Sweden. The government has issued social distancing guidelines, discouraged nonessential travel and recommended that people over 70 stay at home. Authorities also banned gatherings of more than 50 people, and visits to nursing homes are prohibited.

While the vast majority of Swedes approve of and follow the government's guidelines, reports suggest that Stockholm's residents have begun to break the rules as the weather gets warmer. The government swiftly responded by threatening to shut down any restaurant or bar that fails to implement adequate social distancing.

--------

As to the question of masks, no. Even today, the Swedish government's fact sheet mentions staying home if you're sick, social distancing, hand washing and covering your mouth if you cough...but it makes no mention of masks.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/protect-yourself-and-others-from-spread-of-infection/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/europe/sweden-deaths-highest-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

Highest death rate in....

Quote from: tower912 on August 20, 2020, 10:11:03 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/europe/sweden-deaths-highest-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

Highest death rate in....

Yep. Sweden 'handled' COVID as well as Yugo made cars.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-has-developed-herd-immunity-after-refusing-to-lock-down-experts-claim-its-coronavirus-infection-rate-is-falling-2020-08-24

Hmmmm.

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on August 26, 2020, 12:19:08 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-has-developed-herd-immunity-after-refusing-to-lock-down-experts-claim-its-coronavirus-infection-rate-is-falling-2020-08-24

Hmmmm.

So Sweden is at 30% immunity, according to their leading experts, though their measurements so far have put their immunity between 5% and 25%. And they need to get to around 70% according to the dude from the Mayo Clinic.

Some people, and groups of people, are allergic to admitting when they're wrong and changing course. Sweden is suffering from poor leadership during this COVID crisis just like Brazil, the US, China, and Russia.

Scott Gottleib opinion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-shouldnt-be-americas-pandemic-model-11598822005 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-shouldnt-be-americas-pandemic-model-11598822005)

Turns out that trying to get 'herd mentality' has been the plan all along.

Quote from: tower912 on September 16, 2020, 11:07:27 AM
Turns out that trying to get 'herd mentality' has been the plan all along.

Of course it is, that's what the vaccine will help do while limiting death and serious illness.  The whole time the goal was to Get to herd immunity as quickly and safely as possible.

Quote from: PaceArrow02 on September 16, 2020, 11:30:49 AM
Of course it is, that's what the vaccine will help do while limiting death and serious illness.  The whole time the goal was to Get to herd immunity as quickly and safely as possible.

Yea, but there's different ways to get it. Lockdown and try and buy time for the vaccine to help provide that. Or cannonball into the pool, have people get infected and hopefully immune, and hope that accelerates the immunity.

Sweden did the latter and doesn't seem to have really paid off.

Quote from: PaceArrow02 on September 16, 2020, 11:30:49 AM
Of course it is, that's what the vaccine will help do while limiting death and serious illness.  The whole time the goal was to Get to herd immunity as quickly and safely as possible.

That's not what Tower said

Quote from: cheebs09 on September 16, 2020, 11:38:32 AM
Yea, but there's different ways to get it. Lockdown and try and buy time for the vaccine to help provide that. Or cannonball into the pool, have people get infected and hopefully immune, and hope that accelerates the immunity.

Sweden did the latter and doesn't seem to have really paid off.

Half of the United States did the latter, screwing up our economy.

Interesting NYT stuff on Sweden. I definitely learned a few things ...

+++

The White House event to celebrate Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court nomination — a gathering that appears to have spread the coronavirus — would have violated the law in Sweden.

It was too large. More than 200 people attended the Barrett celebration. In Sweden, public events cannot include more than 50 people. Anyone who organizes a larger gathering is subject to a fine or up to six months in prison.

If you've been following the virus news out of Sweden, this fact may surprise you. Sweden has become notorious for its laissez-faire response. Its leaders refused to impose a lockdown in the spring, insisting that doing so was akin to "using a hammer to kill a fly." They also actively discouraged mask wearing.

Ever since, people in other countries who favor a more lax approach have held up Sweden as a model. Recently, as new cases have surged in other European countries, some of Sweden's defenders have claimed vindication.

How are you supposed to make sense of all this? Several readers have asked me that question, and the answers point to some lessons for fighting the virus. I think there are three key ones from Sweden:

1. It is not a success story.

Over all, Sweden's decision to let many activities continue unabated and its hope that growing immunity to the virus would protect people does not look good. The country has suffered more than five times as many deaths per capita as neighboring Denmark and about 10 times as many as Finland or Norway.

"It was a terrible idea to do what they did," Janet Baseman, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington, told me.

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%2Fimages%2F2020%2F10%2F12%2Fmultimedia%2F12-MORNING-SWEDENDEATHS%2F12-MORNING-SWEDENDEATHS-articleLarge.png&t=1602510039&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1cc6-83021901d500&sig=GKcMMcbo3qRSbu6r5JL1ZA--~D)

2. But Sweden did more than some people realize.

It closed schools for students ages 16 and older. It encouraged residents to keep their distance from one another. And it imposed the ban on big gatherings, which looks especially smart now.

Compared with other viruses, this one seems especially likely to spread in clusters. Many infected people don't infect a single other person, while "as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission," The Atlantic's Zeynep Tufekci has explained.

Given this, it's less surprising that Sweden's recent virus performance looks mediocre rather than horrible.

(https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%2Fimages%2F2020%2F10%2F12%2Fmultimedia%2F12-MORNING-SWEDENCASES%2F12-MORNING-SWEDENCASES-articleLarge.png&t=1602510039&ymreqid=3c8d0d78-3338-e941-1cc6-83021901d500&sig=6xp4Mq0C5vn2ozi.7bfcjA--~D)

3. Swedish officials have been right to worry about "sustainability."

Strict lockdowns bring their own steep costs for society. With a vaccine at least months away, societies probably need to grapple with how to restart activities while minimizing risk.

Sweden's leaders do not seem to have found the ideal strategy, but they are asking a reasonable question. "We see a disease that we're going to have to handle for a long time," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's top epidemiologist, told The Financial Times, "and we need to build up systems for doing that."

The fact that Sweden is no longer an extreme outlier in new virus cases — even as life there looks more normal than in most places — offers a new opportunity to assess risk.

I am curious to know why Sweden discouraged mask-wearing.
The idea that Sweden did nothing still persists. And they suffered an awful rate of care-home deaths early on, as I read that their policy did not allow those patients at the time to be transferred to hospitals.

NM

Sweden no longer wants to be like Sweden.

@ScottGottliebMD: Sweden has banned gatherings of more than 8 people as a second wave of coronavirus continues to grow. "Don't go to gyms, don't go to libraries, don't host dinners. Cancel," Swedish Prime Minister Lofven said. https://news.trust.org/item/20201116135516-ilta9/ https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1328523632583307267/photo/1

Quote from: Pakuni on November 16, 2020, 10:45:24 PM
Sweden no longer wants to be like Sweden.

@ScottGottliebMD: Sweden has banned gatherings of more than 8 people as a second wave of coronavirus continues to grow. "Don't go to gyms, don't go to libraries, don't host dinners. Cancel," Swedish Prime Minister Lofven said. https://news.trust.org/item/20201116135516-ilta9/ https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1328523632583307267/photo/1

ChicosDad disagrees with this approach--herd immunity or bust!

From Paul Krugman/NYT (the source itself being enough to send guru et al into an apoplectic rage):

"One of the odder twists in the terrible saga of America's failed Covid-19 response was the way the Trump administration and many U.S. conservatives fell briefly in love with Sweden. Yes, that Sweden, where universal health care is mostly provided directly by the government, where taxes take 44 percent of G.D.P. compared with just 24 percent here, where two-thirds of the work force is unionized.

"Most of the time, in other words, Sweden is an example of everything conservatives hate; its very existence is a rebuttal to their claims that low taxes and harsh treatment of the poor are essential to prosperity.

But in this year of Covid, Sweden chose a different path from other European countries. Where its neighbors were imposing lockdowns to limit the spread of the coronavirus, Sweden chose to follow a strategy of "herd immunity" — letting the virus spread in the belief that once enough people had been infected and developed antibodies, the pandemic would burn out of its own accord."

<snip>

"I do know that the U.S. right seized on the Swedish example, because the Swedes were doing what they themselves wanted to do about the coronavirus — nothing."

<snip>

So it was with Sweden's pandemic response. Conservatives — most notably Dr. Scott Atlas, the not-an-epidemiologist from the Hoover Institution who has become Donald Trump's main coronavirus adviser — rushed to embrace the Swedish model. Atlas was praising Sweden as recently as late last month.

Meanwhile, however, the Swedes themselves are tacitly admitting that they made a terrible mistake."

<snip>

"Then the fall came, and Sweden is in fact having a second wave — much worse than the wave in its neighbors. And on Monday the nation imposed substantial new restrictions on public gatherings, although it's still balking at a broader lockdown.

Unfortunately, I don't think the failure of the Swedish model will change many minds here. As some wag put it, the modern U.S. right doesn't believe in evidence-based policy, it believes in policy-based evidence: seizing on or, if necessary, inventing facts that seem to support what it wants to do anyway."

"the modern U.S. right doesn't believe in evidence-based policy, it believes in policy-based evidence"

What a great line.

Quote from: TSmith34 on November 17, 2020, 12:40:43 PM
From Paul Krugman/NYT (the source itself being enough to send guru et al into an apoplectic rage):

"One of the odder twists in the terrible saga of America's failed Covid-19 response was the way the Trump administration and many U.S. conservatives fell briefly in love with Sweden. Yes, that Sweden, where universal health care is mostly provided directly by the government, where taxes take 44 percent of G.D.P. compared with just 24 percent here, where two-thirds of the work force is unionized.

"Most of the time, in other words, Sweden is an example of everything conservatives hate; its very existence is a rebuttal to their claims that low taxes and harsh treatment of the poor are essential to prosperity.

But in this year of Covid, Sweden chose a different path from other European countries. Where its neighbors were imposing lockdowns to limit the spread of the coronavirus, Sweden chose to follow a strategy of "herd immunity" — letting the virus spread in the belief that once enough people had been infected and developed antibodies, the pandemic would burn out of its own accord."

<snip>

"I do know that the U.S. right seized on the Swedish example, because the Swedes were doing what they themselves wanted to do about the coronavirus — nothing."

<snip>

So it was with Sweden's pandemic response. Conservatives — most notably Dr. Scott Atlas, the not-an-epidemiologist from the Hoover Institution who has become Donald Trump's main coronavirus adviser — rushed to embrace the Swedish model. Atlas was praising Sweden as recently as late last month.

Meanwhile, however, the Swedes themselves are tacitly admitting that they made a terrible mistake."

<snip>

"Then the fall came, and Sweden is in fact having a second wave — much worse than the wave in its neighbors. And on Monday the nation imposed substantial new restrictions on public gatherings, although it's still balking at a broader lockdown.

Unfortunately, I don't think the failure of the Swedish model will change many minds here. As some wag put it, the modern U.S. right doesn't believe in evidence-based policy, it believes in policy-based evidence: seizing on or, if necessary, inventing facts that seem to support what it wants to do anyway."

Guru is arguing with people on Twitter about Dominion.  He's moved past fake diseases

Quote from: Uncle Rico on November 17, 2020, 05:32:20 PM
Guru is arguing with people on Twitter about Dominion.  He's moved past fake diseases

Lol. Of course.

Quote from: Uncle Rico on November 17, 2020, 05:32:20 PM
Guru is arguing with people on Twitter about Dominion.  He's moved past fake diseases

Meanwhile, his banana republic dictator wannabe just fired  the top official responsible for securing the election -- a guy who had the temerity to say that facts showed the election was secure.

Royalty has tested positive.

Quote from: Uncle Rico on November 17, 2020, 05:32:20 PM
Guru is arguing with people on Twitter about Dominion.  He's moved past fake diseases

Isn't Guru the guy that was complaining that he couldn't find a women?

Quote from: Jockey on November 26, 2020, 06:00:37 PM
Isn't Guru the guy that was complaining that he couldn't find a women?

Well, not one that can match his demands

I think we can close the book on Sweden having it right.

Evan Siegfried @evansiegfried
Sweden tried to achieve herd immunity through no lockdowns, restrictions or masking. Last week, they hit 7,000 deaths. Denmark, Finland and Norway, all similar-sized countries who instituted safety measures, have just 878, 415 and 354. Herd immunity failed

https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-a-holdout-from-covid-19-restrictions-sweden-ends-its-pandemic-experiment-11607261658

Neighboring countries offering hospital beds as Swedish hospitals overwhelmed.   Reminds me of another country without a national plan.

Quote from: tower912 on December 14, 2020, 04:57:05 PM
Neighboring countries offering hospital beds as Swedish hospitals overwhelmed.   Reminds me of another country without a national plan.

Who could possibly have seen that coming?

Almost every rational person of average intelligence.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/sweden-s-neighbours-offer-them-emergency-help-as-its-hospitals-fill-up-with-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB1bUCJw

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021

King Carl Gustav considers Sweden's strategy to be a failure.

Any rational person considers Sweden's strategy to be a failure.

Anyone still touting the Sweden model?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/half-sweden-decided-not-lock-115500722.html

Quote from: Pakuni on August 21, 2021, 09:42:23 PM
Anyone still touting the Sweden model?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/half-sweden-decided-not-lock-115500722.html

Obviously they didn't distribute enough horse meds.