Kolek planning to go pro
Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny. Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.
One other note (this is not intended as an argument for or against those particular tax cut policy), our tax receipts are up year over year.
What source are you using. Things look relatively flat when using FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1Q027SBEA
Department of the Treasury report sitehttps://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/
The issue above all as mu03eng pointed out, the market was due for a reset. The expansion has been on fumes for eight to 15 months. And the economy has been stuck for some time at 1.8-2.5 which is basically autopilot. Our biggest issue in months and years ahead is that we have starved the bank. We didn't pay down when we should have and that leaves us exposed when the next "crisis" shows itself.
Agree with this. If there was ever a time to pare down the deficit is should have been over the last 5 years.I nibbled on some more ABBV this morning. We were near enough to 20%/official bear market that I started to deploy some of my first 10% of cash.I have no idea where the bottom is, but if we run a similar timeline to China we are probably looking at another 4-6 weeks of instability at minimum.
I'm hearing rumblings of a TARP-like injection for travel/Covid related stocks.
Election year politics at its worst if true.
I mean, one side looking to backstop, while the other has been relentlessly stoking the fires that have lead to this market free fall knowing it will badly reflect on the sitting administration. Its dirty pool all across the table.
If we gap down another couple hundred points on the SPX/DOW tomorrow, I'd recommend just ignoring the market for awhile. This is WILDLY overdone, and there is no guidance or illumination towards positives, so it allows the media, short sellers, and general agents of chaos to terrify retail into dumping and/or avoid buying. We are down 10-12% in 3 days, off of a level that was already 10%+ off the highs. On the biggest fall since 1987. And people are screaming we need more, we haven't fallen enough and throwing every big scary word like recession, depression, pandemic, quarantine into every headline they can.If you wanna say there are global contractionary supply chain effects we wont feel for awhile yet, and there is further downside in the future. I can buy that. However, for what is known, this is hysteria and just pretty disgusting to watch people continue to cheerlead.
You neglect to speak about the causes of the hysteria. Incompetence and serial lying cause the hysteria. “Live by the lie, die by the lie.”The media does not force anyone to lie on a daily basis. That is a choice made by the liars. I don’t know if you believe the lie that this is a media “hoax”, but millions do.
Don't make it political. I'm not and never was. I'm speaking to driving clicks. Fear and panic sells. 5 new cases somewhere where there was previously 1 is shared as "new cases EXPLODE by 500%".
If we gap down another couple hundred points on the SPX/DOW tomorrow, I'd recommend just ignoring the market for awhile. This is WILDLY overdone, and there is no guidance or illumination towards positives, so it allows the media, short sellers, and general agents of chaos to terrify retail into dumping and/or avoid buying.
Rather than ignore, I am attempting to stick to my plan of investing 10% of available cash at 20% decline, another 20% if we reach 30% down, etc.I was sitting on 15% cash available for a downturn, and it piled up higher both from more dividends coming in and from some poor sucker buying my covered calls on OHI and then calling it away from me at $44/share, AFTER it went ex-dividend.
But thats a fairly well thought out, structured strategy. I was speaking more to the "is this a good time to buy" crowd.The Fear/Greed index is historically stretched towards fear, but people are acting like the Italy news is fuel for another crater, who knows at this point honestly.
People see Italy as a taste of things to come, and they should. So they're properly freaking out.