Investing Thread

[jficke13]

thanks for all of this guys-one company i have been in boeing at $350/sh since last march.  it got as high as $432 during this time, but has taken it's beating because of it's obvious past issues with the 737 max, but they've rolled out a 777-xxx that has orders up the ying yang.  boeing is a $290/sh this morning.  they fix the max and move forward uneventfully with both the max and the triple x, this is a $500/sh stock in a year or so.  am i nuts?

I'm not quite that bullish. Boeing seems to keep tripping over themselves and aren't executing well. They have a lot of goodwill to rebuild over their 737MAX screwups. Couple that with possible echoes through airtravel industry due to COVID19, and, well, I'm just not quite as bullish as you are. I think it goes up from where it is now, how far is a different question.

[rocket surgeon]

I'm not quite that bullish. Boeing seems to keep tripping over themselves and aren't executing well. They have a lot of goodwill to rebuild over their 737MAX screwups. Couple that with possible echoes through airtravel industry due to COVID19, and, well, I'm just not quite as bullish as you are. I think it goes up from where it is now, how far is a different question.

good points.  more immediately, i forgot to factor in the virus thing, but long term, 1-2 years i be can't believe this stock can be held back from $450 just from the stuff on the books.  they do have to do a better job maneuvering thru the issues they have created for themselves.  they are presently at about a 2 + year low however.  unless they feel they can come back on their own accord,  a dividend increase could prime the pumps.  they may not have to resort to that however.

[Dish]

I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount.

Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.

[Benny B]

I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount.

Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.

Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta. 

[Hards Alumni]

I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount.

Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.

Ice in your veins, dude.

[Dish]

Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta.

Yeah, I should have clarified, I was happy with what I came out with, I'm not complaining one bit. My brother works for E Trade, and when he got me going with Options, that was his first rule, don't look back on a profit ever. You'll go literally insane doing that.

If we were talking out loud about this, that tone would have come across much better on my end than it did on a message board. It's very very sound advice though, and I agree 100%.

[Dish]

Ice in your veins, dude.

I was sitting in my home office, and audibly said aloud "Holy F***" when the Fed rate happened (I didn't know it was happening in real time) as I was staring at my E-Trade app.

I'm not trying to say "yayy me" or anything like that either, I was merely trying to say for me personally, it was the craziest roller coaster day I've seen with turning on a dime swings of hundreds of points. I don't claim to be some experienced or good trader, certainly taken my share of beatings as well.

[JWags85]

I was sitting in my home office, and audibly said aloud "Holy F***" when the Fed rate happened (I didn't know it was happening in real time) as I was staring at my E-Trade app.

I'm not trying to say "yayy me" or anything like that either, I was merely trying to say for me personally, it was the craziest roller coaster day I've seen with turning on a dime swings of hundreds of points. I don't claim to be some experienced or good trader, certainly taken my share of beatings as well.

The volatility has been unreal.  I play a decent amount of options and usually keep the market on a monitor as my middays (once Asia/India goes to sleep) are usually quiet.  The last 7 trading days have been unlike anything Ive ever seen.  Normally ES (SPY/SPX) futures +/- 20 on a given night is a "whoa" moment.  They are routinely going 50 pts down or up, and completely reversing overnight.  There are MANY days where the SPY plays in a 1-2 pt range and today we had a 16pt swing from top to bottom.  Hell, it bounced and fell 4 points multiple times in the last hour.  Its both a daytraders dream and nightmare.

I put on some SPX 3075 calls yesterday midday when I thought an afternoon pop would happen, as things fell apart I put in a limit sell for a 50% loss think MAYBE I get lucky and it fills on a random spike, and forgot about it as I watched other stuff.  Oh it filled on that crazy rip and ended up I think 1500% up as it ran away from me, sadly.  Nuts.

But Benny is dead right.  Nobody goes broke taking profits, especially in Options.  For every time you sell for a 200% gain and it runs another 2-500% after, there are twice as many times as a nice profit flips to a complete loss on one random tape bomb in this absurdly headline driven market.

My favorite prime example today, SPX started to work back up with about 15 min left in the day, closing on a decent note after bouncing off a support level at 3000...Google announces they are halting employee travel (which is not a big deal at all given the environment) and the bottom drops out and it drops 35 pts (a normally HUGE drop for a typical trading day) in 3 min.  Its chaotic to say the least

[Dish]

The volatility has been unreal.  I play a decent amount of options and usually keep the market on a monitor as my middays (once Asia/India goes to sleep) are usually quiet.  The last 7 trading days have been unlike anything Ive ever seen.  Normally ES (SPY/SPX) futures +/- 20 on a given night is a "whoa" moment.  They are routinely going 50 pts down or up, and completely reversing overnight.  There are MANY days where the SPY plays in a 1-2 pt range and today we had a 16pt swing from top to bottom.  Hell, it bounced and fell 4 points multiple times in the last hour.  Its both a daytraders dream and nightmare.

I put on some SPX 3075 calls yesterday midday when I thought an afternoon pop would happen, as things fell apart I put in a limit sell for a 50% loss think MAYBE I get lucky and it fills on a random spike, and forgot about it as I watched other stuff.  Oh it filled on that crazy rip and ended up I think 1500% up as it ran away from me, sadly.  Nuts.

But Benny is dead right.  Nobody goes broke taking profits, especially in Options.  For every time you sell for a 200% gain and it runs another 2-500% after, there are twice as many times as a nice profit flips to a complete loss on one random tape bomb in this absurdly headline driven market.

My favorite prime example today, SPX started to work back up with about 15 min left in the day, closing on a decent note after bouncing off a support level at 3000...Google announces they are halting employee travel (which is not a big deal at all given the environment) and the bottom drops out and it drops 35 pts (a normally HUGE drop for a typical trading day) in 3 min.  Its chaotic to say the least

This is well said and the point I was trying to make. Option trading is not for everyone, it is a wild ride, and today (and recently) have been crazy wild rides. I'm happy with a profit and getting the heck out for the day.

[Goose]

Wags

The volatility has been crazy and playing some of the same options. Taking profits daily, but still long every night for the last eight days. Been nice making some dough on the way down but I want things to get back to normal. I am seeing numbers in my sleep.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta.

This x100.  We all do it (I could have had 5x my profit on my puts on SNDR if I held another day), but take your profit and move on.  Your timing will seldom, if ever, be perfect, but enjoy your victory and look for the next one.

[JWags85]

Wags

The volatility has been crazy and playing some of the same options. Taking profits daily, but still long every night for the last eight days. Been nice making some dough on the way down but I want things to get back to normal. I am seeing numbers in my sleep.

Agreed. I'm ready for the market to not be so reactionary. Even if that means a few weeks of downward drift towards 2500 levels. We've been absurdly headline sensitive for most of the Trump presidency, but this is even more special circumstances

[Jockey]

Agreed. I'm ready for the market to not be so reactionary. Even if that means a few weeks of downward drift towards 2500 levels. We've been absurdly headline sensitive for most of the Trump presidency, but this is even more special circumstances

I agree with both what you say here and your past comments about the Corona virus. As of now, it seems like it will manifest itself similar to the flu.

What I will ask is do you think there is any way in the near future for the market to stabilize when the response to the new virus is total chaos? Similar to China, our gov't will not tell us how many cases there are. We are advised to go to work even if we think we have the virus. There is zero leadership on what steps normal people can take to aid in the prevention of the virus. Can the markets overcome this? (I realize our markets are somewhat dependent on others around the world, but I am talking about what happens here).

[Benny B]

I agree with both what you say here and your past comments about the Corona virus. As of now, it seems like it will manifest itself similar to the flu.

What I will ask is do you think there is any way in the near future for the market to stabilize when the response to the new virus is total chaos? Similar to China, our gov't will not tell us how many cases there are. We are advised to go to work even if we think we have the virus. There is zero leadership on what steps normal people can take to aid in the prevention of the virus. Can the markets overcome this? (I realize our markets are somewhat dependent on others around the world, but I am talking about what happens here).

There's a difference between "will not tell us" and "cannot tell us."   And judging by the performance of my SPY doom-puts, the markets seem to be overcoming just fine.

[Jockey]

There's a difference between "will not tell us" and "cannot tell us."   And judging by the performance of my SPY doom-puts, the markets seem to be overcoming just fine.

While I freely admit that you know more about the markets than I do (hence, why I pay a financial advisor), I have no clue what you just said.


In another vein, here's a good clue as to what the Wall Streeters think about us common folks:

"Maybe we'd be better off if we gave [COVID-19] to everybody, and in a month it would be over because the mortality is going to be any different than the long-term picture but the difference is we're wreaking havoc on global economies,"  --  Rick Santelli

Apparently, people suffering and dying really annoys him. So, he'd like to see about 10,000,000 people die in the US (WHO puts fatality rate at just over 3%) so as not to be inconvenienced in his pursuit of an extra dollar.

[JWags85]

While I freely admit that you know more about the markets than I do (hence, why I pay a financial advisor), I have no clue what you just said.


In another vein, here's a good clue as to what the Wall Streeters think about us common folks:

"Maybe we'd be better off if we gave [COVID-19] to everybody, and in a month it would be over because the mortality is going to be any different than the long-term picture but the difference is we're wreaking havoc on global economies,"  --  Rick Santelli

Apparently, people suffering and dying really annoys him. So, he'd like to see about 10,000,000 people die in the US (WHO puts fatality rate at just over 3%) so as not to be inconvenienced in his pursuit of an extra dollar.

What I think he means is there is a difference between having numbers and not sharing them, and not collecting every last case and/or compiling all the data. Contrary to a lot of people's opinions, short of sharing necessary precautions and procedure, sharing every last tidbit of information or exact counts doesn't help the general public or businesses, but rather drives further hysteria.

And Rick Santelli is a bozo, but he's also not a Wall Streeter. He's a talking head employed by an entertainment company masquerading as financial news. But as to his point, it's not nearly as dramatic as you make it to be. And it's not greedy, cause there are plenty of "normal people" income and livelihood at stake.

Look at it this way. A blizzard is projected to hit Milwaukee. A MASSIVE logistic shattering blizzard. But it's speculated about for a week, 2 weeks or more. People are prepping, raiding shelves, preparing to stay home from work, productivity is shelved with prep and panic. It would be better for the storm to just hit and deal with it. That's what's happening now. You have healthy people well outside of the "danger" demographic freaking out and putting lives, businesses, production, etc... potentially on hold on "what if's".

As for WHO, they bumbled their handling of this, proclaimed it essentially not a big deal in their early assessments, and now are banging the pandemic panic drum as loud as can be, cause there are significant financial and funding implications for them as a result. They are a corrupt joke.

Can the market overcome this? Sure. There is still plenty to be determined but I think it's probably time for the panic selling to subside. I do think we see lower levels in coming months, but that will be a result of real numbers and productivity impacts coming to light via numbers and earnings, not panicked "this will cripple the world economy" hysteria as a company announcing a freeze on domestic travel makes stock prices drop multiple percent

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I don't think there are many examples where less info is better than more for the market.  In fact if there is distrust most people estimate a worse scenario than is true.  Better to get the bad news fast and move on (which is probably was miscommunicated by the talking head). My opinion of course.

[Dish]

Dow futures down 1000 points, oil down to $30 a barrel, lowest price in 30 years.

[🏀]

Dow futures down 1000 points, oil down to $30 a barrel, lowest price in 30 years.

10y treasury note below 0.5%.

Buckle up buckaroos.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Woof

[Heisenberg]

S&P futures are limit down, down 145 points or 5%.

That's all it can do until the NYSE open.  Then it expands to 7%.

[Dish]

We're potentially on the cusp of $20 barrel oil and zero percent interest rates, in what feels like the blink of an eye.

[curbina]

We are potentially on the cusp of $20 barrel oil and zero percent interest rates, in what feels like the blink of an eye.

I was wondering if anyone was watching Crude. The break even point for crude is approx $50.00 barrel. I am short on both $WTI and $BRENT. Both are consolidating right now, $WTI @ 30.49 and $BRENT @ 33.87. Watch for break below 28.11 on $WTI and 31.79 on $BRENT for a another down side move.

If Crude moves down to 20.00 this will be a very sweet trade. Good Luck!

If you dont have a Futures account you can use the ETF $SCO
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil Inverse leveraged 2X

This ETF will short $WTI (light sweet crude) Try to get a tight bid/ask to keep slippage to a minimum, use stp-lmt orders for execution not mkt orders. If you use mkt orders you have to pay the difference between the bid/ask. DO NOT FORGET TO SET YOUR STOP-LOSS, just in case the trade turn against you!

[jesmu84]

Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?

In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.

Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.

[mu03eng]

Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?

In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.

Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.

If we are heading to a recession it'll be a short lived one. The economic fundamentals are still sound, this is a perfect storm of a major US election, if it bleeds it leads type of media hysteria, and a virus emerging in China first which threw a big wrench in the global supply chain for a couple of months.

The market was largely oversold IMO so a bear market or a hard reset was due at some point, Corona just happened to be the trigger. I think a year from now we'll be back to growth.