The War in Ukraine

[Hards Alumni]

The only guy who even thinks he has or can consolidate enough power to oust Putin is Kadyrov.
And that would be worse than Putin.

There is no Nelson Mandela waiting in a prison somewhere.

Worst take in the thread.

0.0% chance Kadyrov has support anywhere besides a border territory in the caucuses.  And even there he isn't particularly well liked.

Suggesting he has any support in Russia proper is absolutely wrong. 

Chances are that it is just another man from the FSB that will continue to run Russia as the gangster state that it currently functions as.

[NCMUFan]

Russian-held regions of Ukraine vote whether to join Russia

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Russian-held regions of Ukraine vote whether to join Russia

Yeah, not really

[WarriorFan]

Worst take in the thread.

0.0% chance Kadyrov has support anywhere besides a border territory in the caucuses.  And even there he isn't particularly well liked.

Suggesting he has any support in Russia proper is absolutely wrong. 

Chances are that it is just another man from the FSB that will continue to run Russia as the gangster state that it currently functions as.

I didn't say "support", I said power.  The Chechen diaspora in Russia runs most of the drugs, vice, labor hire, illegal money lending, and nearly all forms of "problem solving" throughout the entire country, using a combination of legitimate and "black" businesses including paramilitary forces.  No-one likes them, but they are everywhere. 

There are no other Russians - Pols, businessmen, oligarchs or otherwise - who can project power and control the way the Chechens can.  Most of the Oligarchs have been running pretty clean businesses for the last 10-15 years and have been much more focused on modernizing and upgrading their businesses (and getting money out of the country) than on the balance of power, because there was no opportunity for input on the balance of power.

[Herman Cain]

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2022/9/25/putins-suicidal-gamble

[MU82]

Russian state TV is using clips of Fox News host Tucker Carlson to promote the country's war against Ukraine amid protests against Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-using-tucker-carlson-clips-promote-war-unrest-grows-1746067

[tower912]

Probably quoting Greenwald, too.

[Jockey]

Probably quoting Greenwald, too.

And Snowden.

[pbiflyer]

And Snowden.

The newest Russian citizen. Wonder if he gets drafted?

[tower912]

That would be epic if he was granted citizenship and then sent to the front

[Lennys Tap]

That would be epic if he was granted citizenship and then sent to the front

He never impressed me as the soldier type.

[🏀]

He never impressed me as the soldier type.

Wasn't he a SEAL or some sort of special forces?

[Lennys Tap]

Wasn't he a SEAL or some sort of special forces?

He was in the Army for 4 and a half months. Broke his leg in training for the special forces and was discharged.

[🏀]

He was in the Army for 4 and a half months. Broke his leg in training for the special forces and was discharged.

Ah, gotcha. Thought there was something, thanks.

[forgetful]

Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?

Unfortunately, yes IMO. People's pocketbooks will definitely impact their views.

[MUeng]

He was in the Army for 4 and a half months. Broke his leg in training for the special forces and was discharged.

actually he lied about that too. He was discharged for shin splints and didn't make it through basic army boot camp

[tower912]

Yes, but I predict most will lay the blame at Putin's feet, where it belongs.

[Scoop Snoop]

Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?

Yes. If that happens, it would be all too easy for Americans to say that the Europeans' will weakened. They are facing the very real possibility of wrecked economies. At the least, they will be wearing heavy sweaters and piling on blankets at night this winter due to sky high utility costs. I hope they stick it out, but let's refrain from being judgmental if the European leaders, listening to their voters and fearing that they will be thrown out of office if they do not change course, ease up on Russia. Of course, this is exactly what Putin is hoping for.

[WarriorFan]

Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?

It's a huge concern.  Europeans have been stupid and fickle.  First they want to transition too quickly to "green" power and in doing so have shut down a lot of coal plants and some nuke plants, then they became over-reliant on gas because the other sources of power are both inconsistent and expensive, and now the politicians are concerned the masses will protest as the energy prices rise because there are not enough reliable sources of power.
Not sure who damaged the Nord Stream pipelines yesterday but that's possibly the best thing politically for European government leaders because they can blame Putin now for the shortage of gas and possibly maintain support for Ukraine through the winter despite the inevitable power shortages.

[MU82]

This from a NYT article:

There is some good news. Eurozone countries have reduced their reliance on Russian gas to less than 10 percent from about 40 percent last winter, according to Zongqiang Luo, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy. He added that European countries were two months ahead of schedule in filling their gas storage reserves to above 80 percent — and, in some cases, above 90 percent.

But if Gazprom follows through on its threat to shut down the third pipeline to Western Europe, businesses and homeowners would feel it. "Whether Europe can survive the winter will be highly dependent upon voluntary gas cuts," Luo said. Any cuts to business output could leave the economic bloc more vulnerable to recession.

[Scoop Snoop]

Not sure who damaged the Nord Stream pipelines yesterday but that's possibly the best thing politically for European government leaders because they can blame Putin now for the shortage of gas and possibly maintain support for Ukraine through the winter despite the inevitable power shortages.

Linking blaming Putin and (possibly) maintaining support for Ukraine works fine in theory, but I think in reality the link will not work. The leaks are NOT good news and, I think, could end up resulting in caving in at least partially to Putin.

In addition to some poor energy decisions made over many years by the Europeans, I think an oft overlooked factor is Putin's history of offering cushy, 7 figure salaries as board members on Russian energy companies to former PMs of European countries. I believe the offers were made before the PMs left office. Germany's Shroeder is Exhibit A. Until recent years, he was publicly very proud of his friendship with his patron Putin. He reminds me of someone else who was very proud of being a friend of Putin.

[The Sultan]

Linking blaming Putin and (possibly) maintaining support for Ukraine works fine in theory, but I think in reality the link will not work. The leaks are NOT good news and, I think, could end up resulting in caving in at least partially to Putin.

Right. When Russia annexes the current territories it holds due to the "referendum," and the war bogs down in the winter at the same times bills are at their peak, European sentiment could turn to "can we encourage Ukraine to accept these new borders permanently in return for peace?"

[JWags85]

In addition to some poor energy decisions made over many years by the Europeans, I think an oft overlooked factor is Putin's history of offering cushy, 7 figure salaries as board members on Russian energy companies to former PMs of European countries. I believe the offers were made before the PMs left office. Germany's Shroeder is Exhibit A. Until recent years, he was publicly very proud of his friendship with his patron Putin. He reminds me of someone else who was very proud of being a friend of Putin.

Ironic cause Shroeder went to Russia boasting about not being as friendly as Helmut Kohl was with Yeltsin...then becomes besties with Vladdy like 2 years later

[Scoop Snoop]

Ironic cause Shroeder went to Russia boasting about not being as friendly as Helmut Kohl was with Yeltsin...then becomes besties with Vladdy like 2 years later

Once the Germans joined the Vlad Fan Club, it cleared the way for the rest of Europe, as Germany has the largest economy. I believe Vlad offered board seats to at least one Frenchman and one Italian soon after they left office.

I guess we really need to focus on the here and now, but the Europeans are not innocent bystanders in this mess of having been so dependent on Russia for oil and gas. The handwriting was on the wall, but they pretended not to read it.