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Author Topic: 2022 MLB Thread  (Read 61267 times)

4everwarriors

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #50 on: January 12, 2022, 01:43:44 PM »
Jon Lester, a real good pitcher with some Hall bonafides, officially retires.

https://theathletic.com/news/former-cubs-red-sox-pitcher-jon-lester-retires-with-200-wins-3-world-series-rings/hJFtIofIJeQl/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

Jon Lester, a three-time World Series champion with the Cubs and Red Sox, a 200-game winner and one of the best free-agent signings in Chicago sports history, announced his retirement Wednesday on ESPN.com.

Known for his consistency and composure in the biggest games and biggest markets, Lester made 30-plus starts in 12 consecutive seasons between 2008 and 2019. Lester posted a 2.51 ERA in 154 career postseason innings, cementing his reputation as one of the best big-game pitchers from his era and making a case for serious Hall of Fame consideration.

Lester, who turned 38 last week, had signaled that the 2021 season would very likely be his last in the majors. Winning his 200th game — in a Cardinals uniform after a midseason trade from the Nationals — checked off one of his career goals.

“It’s kind of run its course,” Lester told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. “It’s getting harder for me physically. The little things that come up throughout the year turned into bigger things that hinder your performance.

“I’d like to think I’m a halfway decent self-evaluator. I don’t want someone else telling me I can’t do this anymore. I want to be able to hand my jersey over and say, ‘Thank you, it’s been fun.’ That's probably the biggest deciding factor.”





Sew kin, yea orr nay on da Hall, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

jficke13

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #51 on: January 12, 2022, 02:20:19 PM »
Also the lockout is leading to funny/sad promotional nonsense. The Brewers blasted out their calendar of bobblehead giveaways, listing after each date "Player Bobblehead."

So, so dumb.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #52 on: January 12, 2022, 02:27:40 PM »
Also the lockout is leading to funny/sad promotional nonsense. The Brewers blasted out their calendar of bobblehead giveaways, listing after each date "Player Bobblehead."

So, so dumb.

Brewers also post about the first thing you'd say when you get back to AmFam field.

About 85% of the responses mentioned Miller Park.  Free marketing for Miller Brewing.  🤣

GB Warrior

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #53 on: January 12, 2022, 05:35:11 PM »
Also the lockout is leading to funny/sad promotional nonsense. The Brewers blasted out their calendar of bobblehead giveaways, listing after each date "Player Bobblehead."

So, so dumb.

I want a 'blank avatar' bobblehead!

MU82

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #54 on: January 12, 2022, 09:41:18 PM »



Sew kin, yea orr nay on da Hall, hey?

Borderline case. Probably not right away, but maybe down the line. Postseason success will be a big draw for some voters.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Lennys Tap

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #55 on: January 12, 2022, 10:03:02 PM »



Sew kin, yea orr nay on da Hall, hey?

Nay

JWags85

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #56 on: January 12, 2022, 10:45:22 PM »
Borderline case. Probably not right away, but maybe down the line. Postseason success will be a big draw for some voters.

Agreed. Love Lester.  Good dude, tide turning signing for the Cubs and critical component to that title, but he’s very much Hall of Very Good for me.

Workhorse, really reliable in the playoffs on multiple teams, big game pitcher, but I don’t know if there was ever a sustained period where he was a top 5 or top 8 pitcher year after year

Jockey

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #57 on: January 13, 2022, 12:01:10 AM »
Borderline case. Probably not right away, but maybe down the line. Postseason success will be a big draw for some voters.

He was as good as Jack Morris, so he probably will get in. Although neither should be members.

JWags85

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #58 on: January 13, 2022, 12:46:44 AM »
He was as good as Jack Morris, so he probably will get in. Although neither should be members.

Idk, Jack Morris lead MLB in wins twice and SOs once. Lester only led the NL in wins once.

Morris also finished top 5 in the Cy Young 5 times to Lester’s 3.  Not including a couple other top 10s.

I don’t think either should be in personally but I’d still give Morris the nod

#UnleashSean

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #59 on: January 13, 2022, 03:25:02 AM »
Idk, Jack Morris lead MLB in wins twice and SOs once. Lester only led the NL in wins once.

Morris also finished top 5 in the Cy Young 5 times to Lester’s 3.  Not including a couple other top 10s.

I don’t think either should be in personally but I’d still give Morris the nod

Do people still care about a stat so meaningless you could receive a W after giving up 9 runs, and recirve an L after going 8 innings and losing 1-0?

MU82

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #60 on: January 13, 2022, 08:06:33 AM »
Hall of Very Good

The trend these days is that a very good but not great player gets rejected by the voters but then either gets a push late in the process (his last or next-to-last year on the ballot) or is handed the keys to the Hall by a sympathetic old-timers committee.

So I'd say he has a shot, one way or the other.

I'd put Schilling in 10 times out of 10 over Lester, and I'd give Morris an edge too. Maybe even Buehrle.

But Lester was an important contributor to two franchises who desperately needed a pitcher like him, a guy who came through in the clutch, and a guy who had some very good numbers. He's borderline, but he has a chance.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

JWags85

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #61 on: January 13, 2022, 08:54:15 AM »
Do people still care about a stat so meaningless you could receive a W after giving up 9 runs, and recirve an L after going 8 innings and losing 1-0?

In reality, no. In the HOF that loves counting stats and things like that, yes.  That’s the only reason I mentioned it

Retire0

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #62 on: January 13, 2022, 09:06:08 AM »
Guys, he's a hall of famer because of who's in the hall already. He passes 4 of the 5 HOF tests on BR. Add in his performances getting two historical franchises world series titles, that will be the icing on the cake.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml

New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

buckchuckler

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #63 on: January 13, 2022, 10:27:04 AM »
Do people still care about a stat so meaningless you could receive a W after giving up 9 runs, and recirve an L after going 8 innings and losing 1-0?

This is a terrible point in this case.  Morris threw over 1k innings more than Lester did, and averaged about 1 ip more per start.  Putting Morris much more in control of his own record.  The better the pitcher the more relevant wins is as a stat.  Because they are probably going deeper into games and more in control of their own fate.  It isn't perfect and it isn't the best stat to gauge a pitchers effectiveness, but in conjunction with other stats it still tells a story.  Especially when Morris was pitching.  It gets less relevant with each year now because of how pitchers are used and how pitching staffs are built. 
And beyond that, looking at leading the league is not the same as looking at a straight total.  Even now, if you look at the guy the lead the league in wins, it is usually an accomplishment that is reserved for some of the best pitchers in the game.  Can a guy get a couple fluke wins here and there, sure.  But to lead the league is typically a guy that had a pretty darn strong season.  And there aren't really any flukey guys that lead the league in wins multiple times.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #64 on: January 13, 2022, 10:34:49 AM »
It's hardly a terrible point.  Regardless of how many innings someone pitched, you aren't in control of what happens in the other half of the inning. 

Wins is absolutely meaningless as a stat.  IP shows you stamina.  ERA shows you effectiveness.  And you can dive into even more advanced stats if you want to drill those down even more.  But no serious person should be using Wins to justify anything with regards to the Hall of Fame.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

buckchuckler

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #65 on: January 13, 2022, 10:40:14 AM »
Also, you may be surprised to learn, that the percentage of players making the HOF has been steadily declining, and is now smaller than ever. So the whole "the HOF is watered down stuff" is just perception.  People tend to compare HOF players to like the best players in the HOF.  Every one is compared to Willie Mays and Sandy Kofax. 

A little bit of an older article, but still as true.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/a-hall-of-stats-shows-a-haul-of-omissions/

TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #66 on: January 13, 2022, 10:40:59 AM »
In 2017, Jacob DeGrom posted a career high 15 wins. He also posted a career worst 3.53 ERA (only 1 other season above 3, 3.04 in 2016).

Wins is a meaningless stat.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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buckchuckler

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #67 on: January 13, 2022, 11:25:39 AM »
Boy people just see the word wins and fly off the handle, eh?  Oh well.  Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear enough in what I was trying to say.  Let me try again.

I never said Morris should be in because of his win total.  I never said that Lester shouldn't be in because of his.  Or that the discrepancy should play any role.

It isn't a good comparison for Lester and Morris.  They pitched in drastically different eras when it comes to starting pitchers.

Is wins relevant for a guy that started his career in 2010?  No, it probably isn't.  Does it matter for a guy that pitched in the 60s? Yeah. The 90s?  Yeah. 

I do think that leading the league is still an accomplishment worthy of recognition.  Even now.  Yeah you can have a fluke year where a Jason Vargas or Gio Gonzalez is the league leader.  But for the most part, it is the best pitchers in the game that are towards the top.  Especially multiple times.  Can good pitchers still be on bad teams like deGrom?  Like Felix?  Yeah of course.  No one is advocating for win total as the top metric to determine a HOF career, or even a good career. 

Look at the wins leaders for the 90s.  Its mostly the best pitchers of the 90s.  Lots of Maddux, Glavine, Clemens.  Same for the 80s, and 70s and 60s, if not moreso.

While Wins itself may not be a great metric, leading the league, says something, and usually a lot,  about the quality of the season the pitcher had.

I would still say going deeper into games gives a better representation of Ws and Ls, but whatever, that isn't really the point I was trying to make. 

Maybe you disagree and anything with Wins is trash.  Cool.  I tend to think it used to mean more than it does now.  Much like K's, WHIP, ERA, and IP it tells a part of the story that is useless on its own. 


Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #68 on: January 13, 2022, 11:34:56 AM »
No I understood you perfectly.  Wins, regardless of the era, are a bad stat.
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Jockey

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #69 on: January 13, 2022, 11:38:42 AM »

 

Look at the wins leaders for the 90s.  Its mostly the best pitchers of the 90s.  Lots of Maddux, Glavine, Clemens.  Same for the 80s, and 70s and 60s, if not moreso.
 

I think this is what people are saying. Wins was a very big deal back in the 60s, 70s, 80s. SPs were expected to pitch 250-300 innings.

That's not the case anymore. When SPs are only pitching 5-6 innings, the bullpen/offense may have a larger responsibility for who gets the win than the SP.

jficke13

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #70 on: January 13, 2022, 12:18:39 PM »
I guess I just don't see the point in paying attention to a stat that, at best, is *potentially correlative* of the conclusion you want to draw. I especially don't see the point to doing so when everyone agrees about it's lack of descriptive value. AND especially when there are plenty of readily accessible and pretty easy to understand other metrics to use instead.

cheebs09

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #71 on: January 13, 2022, 12:38:01 PM »
Also, you may be surprised to learn, that the percentage of players making the HOF has been steadily declining, and is now smaller than ever. So the whole "the HOF is watered down stuff" is just perception.  People tend to compare HOF players to like the best players in the HOF.  Every one is compared to Willie Mays and Sandy Kofax. 

A little bit of an older article, but still as true.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/a-hall-of-stats-shows-a-haul-of-omissions/

How much of that is not voting for suspected steroid users?

I think wins were used back in the 60s because it was an easy stat to count and keep track of. Just because people valued it back then doesn’t mean it was any more useful.

You could still have a great pitcher on a woeful offense or unlucky. It doesn’t change the fact that wins are as dependent on your offense just because you pitch an inning or two more.

Jockey

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #72 on: January 13, 2022, 12:39:37 PM »
I guess I just don't see the point in paying attention to a stat that, at best, is *potentially correlative* of the conclusion you want to draw. I especially don't see the point to doing so when everyone agrees about it's lack of descriptive value. AND especially when there are plenty of readily accessible and pretty easy to understand other metrics to use instead.

I completely agree. The days are long gone when ‘wins’ mattered. SPs don’t get 20, 25, 30 complete games like they did 50 years ago.

drewm88

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #73 on: January 14, 2022, 10:22:52 AM »
I was looking at the BR page wondering what cap Lester might wear if he does get in -- he started about 3/4 as many games in Chicago as he did in Boston (171 to 241.) Interestingly, he had the exact same ERA for both, 3.64. Definitely a better pitcher overall for Boston, though.

Then again, the exact same win/loss % for each team (.636), which is what really matters here.

jficke13

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Re: 2022 MLB Thread
« Reply #74 on: January 14, 2022, 10:55:06 AM »
I was looking at the BR page wondering what cap Lester might wear if he does get in -- he started about 3/4 as many games in Chicago as he did in Boston (171 to 241.) Interestingly, he had the exact same ERA for both, 3.64. Definitely a better pitcher overall for Boston, though.

Then again, the exact same win/loss % for each team (.636), which is what really matters here.

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