More conference realignment talk

[WhiteTrash]

Can you imagine in the NFL if New York, Chicago, LA, Dallas, Philly and Atlanta decided they could get a better deal from FOX/ESPN? Maybe they could have 2x the salary of Tenn, GB, TB, Arizona? Free markets rule the day? 

[The Sultan]

Can you imagine in the NFL if New York, Chicago, LA, Dallas, Philly and Atlanta decided they could get a better deal from FOX/ESPN? Maybe they could have 2x the salary of Tenn, GB, TB, Arizona? Free markets rule the day? 

I mean...that literally can't happen. 

[Herman Cain]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/vrhuhx/ksl_5_tv_utah_arizona_arizona_state_and_colorado/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Would be a nice pick up for The Big 12

[The Sultan]

If I were the P12, I would try to take the four B12 schools from Texas instead. Utah, Arizona, ASU and Colorado would be insane to jump into a conference with the likes of Memphis, Cincinnati and West Virginia right now.

[Uncle Rico]

If I were the P12, I would try to take the four B12 schools from Texas instead. Utah, Arizona, ASU and Colorado would be insane to jump into a conference with the likes of Memphis, Cincinnati and West Virginia right now.

Pac-12 better shore up its own membership first. 

[The Sultan]

Pac-12 better shore up its own membership first. 

They aren't going to be able to do that if the B10 comes calling. But whomever is left can make better choices than jumping into a 16 team conference with no west coast presence.

[WhiteTrash]

If I were the P12, I would try to take the four B12 schools from Texas instead. Utah, Arizona, ASU and Colorado would be insane to jump into a conference with the likes of Memphis, Cincinnati and West Virginia right now.

When did Memphis get into the B12? Or who is even talking about Memphis joining the B12 or P12? News  to me.

[The Sultan]

When did Memphis get into the B12? Or who is even talking about Memphis joining the B12 or P12? News  to me.

Yep. My mistake. I assumed they were one of the new additions.

Still the point stands.

[WhiteTrash]

Yep. My mistake. I assumed they were one of the new additions.

Still the point stands.

What, you can't keep all this conference affiliation stuff straight? 

Two weeks ago I'd agree with you, but now, I don't know. In today's world, AZ, ASU, Utah and Colorado seem about right for the B12.

[brewcity77]

I think the Big East is in much better shape than it was before the Big 10 decided to expand west. It seems pretty clear we're moving toward two super-football conferences of 20-24 teams. But from a basketball perspective, even if they go to 30 and take over the NCAA Tournament, that's probably at most 40 bids accounted for in those two leagues. If we were looking at 4 consolidated leagues of 20 teams each, I'd be worried about getting frozen out. But most likely 48 and at most 60? The numbers just won't support it. They'll need a couple other conferences just to fill out the field with enough quality. We are on better footing now than we were before the USC/UCLA announcement.

[bilsu]

I think the Big East is in much better shape than it was before the Big 10 decided to expand west. It seems pretty clear we're moving toward two super-football conferences of 20-24 teams. But from a basketball perspective, even if they go to 30 and take over the NCAA Tournament, that's probably at most 40 bids accounted for in those two leagues. If we were looking at 4 consolidated leagues of 20 teams each, I'd be worried about getting frozen out. But most likely 48 and at most 60? The numbers just won't support it. They'll need a couple other conferences just to fill out the field with enough quality. We are on better footing now than we were before the USC/UCLA announcement.

Maybe they will win enough games in the non-conference, but I just do not see enough teams in these huge conferences having overall winning records to have 40 teams warrant a bid to a national tournament.

[WhiteTrash]

Maybe they will win enough games in the non-conference, but I just do not see enough teams in these huge conferences having overall winning records to have 40 teams warrant a bid to a national tournament.

If the football break from the NCAA, then they will have no one to play. Marquette will have zero incentive to play Wisky, ND, UCLA, etc. Non-NCAA DI don't count. Those schools will play themselves and maybe NAIA.

[DFW HOYA]

If the football break from the NCAA, then they will have no one to play. Marquette will have zero incentive to play Wisky, ND, UCLA, etc. Non-NCAA DI don't count. Those schools will play themselves and maybe NAIA.

Division I football is 259 schools. Not all football schools are breaking away, but even if the SEC and Big 10 did, that's 32-40 schools and plenty of inter-league scheduling opportunities.

[brewcity77]

Maybe they will win enough games in the non-conference, but I just do not see enough teams in these huge conferences having overall winning records to have 40 teams warrant a bid to a national tournament.

That's why I said at most 40. Even then, that's probably only if the B10 and SEC go 30 teams each and still fewer than that in most years. More likely they go to 24 each and generally get 12-16 each, with both leagues combining to max out around 30 bids.

The discussions of the P12/B12 schools sure seem to indicate there will be a third major conference, though less of a football player than the other two. That positions the Big East to be the fourth major conference.

[The Sultan]

That's why I said at most 40. Even then, that's probably only if the B10 and SEC go 30 teams each and still fewer than that in most years. More likely they go to 24 each and generally get 12-16 each, with both leagues combining to max out around 30 bids.

The discussions of the P12/B12 schools sure seem to indicate there will be a third major conference, though less of a football player than the other two. That positions the Big East to be the fourth major conference.

Don't forget the ACC.

[Herman Cain]

What, you can't keep all this conference affiliation stuff straight? 

Two weeks ago I'd agree with you, but now, I don't know. In today's world, AZ, ASU, Utah and Colorado seem about right for the B12.

I agree with this analysis.

[brewcity77]

Don't forget the ACC.

I think the ACC will end up pillaged. They are on a similar track the Big East was on in 2011.

The Big East seemed really solid when perennial top-10 football program TCU was coming in, just like how the ACC has shored themselves up over the past decade and rode the rise of Clemson in football. But now it really feels like Notre Dame and UNC will be leaving soon. Pretty much a formality that those two go. And when they do, I think that will be the "West Virginia to the Big 12" moment. Suddenly, everyone will be looking for the first life raft they can find. Miami, Virginia, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and a few others will probably get those SEC/B10 invites. But those that don't will have two options. Jump to the next best option (B12 or for some, the UConn Big East route) or try to coddle together a reformed conference with options about as attractive as the Big East had back in 2012.

Obviously predicting realignment is a dicey proposition, but I think in the next year or so the Power 5 is about to become a Power 3 that is more like a Power 2.5 with the SEC and Big 10 at the top and the Big 12 clearly behind them but strong enough to stay relevant. I'd guess between the 3 you will see the 55-65 most prominent programs and everyone else will be left in the cold.

In the long run, Texas/Oklahoma was a significant moment, but the UCLA/USC jump is the one that feels like an absolute sea change.

[Herman Cain]

I think the ACC will end up pillaged. They are on a similar track the Big East was on in 2011.

The Big East seemed really solid when perennial top-10 football program TCU was coming in, just like how the ACC has shored themselves up over the past decade and rode the rise of Clemson in football. But now it really feels like Notre Dame and UNC will be leaving soon. Pretty much a formality that those two go. And when they do, I think that will be the "West Virginia to the Big 12" moment. Suddenly, everyone will be looking for the first life raft they can find. Miami, Virginia, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and a few others will probably get those SEC/B10 invites. But those that don't will have two options. Jump to the next best option (B12 or for some, the UConn Big East route) or try to coddle together a reformed conference with options about as attractive as the Big East had back in 2012.

Obviously predicting realignment is a dicey proposition, but I think in the next year or so the Power 5 is about to become a Power 3 that is more like a Power 2.5 with the SEC and Big 10 at the top and the Big 12 clearly behind them but strong enough to stay relevant. I'd guess between the 3 you will see the 55-65 most prominent programs and everyone else will be left in the cold.

In the long run, Texas/Oklahoma was a significant moment, but the UCLA/USC jump is the one that feels like an absolute sea change.

Following the money trail  of Conference network ownership is a good way to understand this.

Big Ten Network - FOX and The Schools
SEC Network - ESPN
Big 12 - ESPN
ACC- ESPN
Pac 12 - Owned by The Schools.

ESPN and FOX will dictate the outcome. Pac 12 not in the best position.

[The Sultan]

Pac 12's inability to make it's network viable is how they got to this point.

[The Sultan]

I think the ACC will end up pillaged. They are on a similar track the Big East was on in 2011.

The Big East seemed really solid when perennial top-10 football program TCU was coming in, just like how the ACC has shored themselves up over the past decade and rode the rise of Clemson in football. But now it really feels like Notre Dame and UNC will be leaving soon. Pretty much a formality that those two go. And when they do, I think that will be the "West Virginia to the Big 12" moment. Suddenly, everyone will be looking for the first life raft they can find. Miami, Virginia, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and a few others will probably get those SEC/B10 invites. But those that don't will have two options. Jump to the next best option (B12 or for some, the UConn Big East route) or try to coddle together a reformed conference with options about as attractive as the Big East had back in 2012.

Obviously predicting realignment is a dicey proposition, but I think in the next year or so the Power 5 is about to become a Power 3 that is more like a Power 2.5 with the SEC and Big 10 at the top and the Big 12 clearly behind them but strong enough to stay relevant. I'd guess between the 3 you will see the 55-65 most prominent programs and everyone else will be left in the cold.

In the long run, Texas/Oklahoma was a significant moment, but the UCLA/USC jump is the one that feels like an absolute sea change.

I just don't see how a lot of the ACC schools are going to increase the $$ per school increase to the Big Ten or SEC.  Is North Carolina or Virginia really going to do that?  I could see some P12 schools in those markets doing this, but even then I am not sure.

I think the bar for getting into the B10 right now is REALLY high.  Right now outside of ND, I am not sure who can clear it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I just don't see how a lot of the ACC schools are going to increase the $$ per school increase to the Big Ten or SEC.  Is North Carolina or Virginia really going to do that?  I could see some P12 schools in those markets doing this, but even then I am not sure.

I think the bar for getting into the B10 right now is REALLY high.  Right now outside of ND, I am not sure who can clear it.

I think the networks have decided that they want all these properties consolidated and will pay to make it happen.

[The Sultan]

I think the networks have decided that they want all these properties consolidated and will pay to make it happen.

Perhaps. But I just don't understand why. 

[muguru]

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-eyeing-loose-partnership?sd=pf

[forgetful]

Perhaps. But I just don't understand why.

If only two major leagues, you create the possibility of an even greater monopoly over the sports content.

[WhiteTrash]

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-eyeing-loose-partnership?sd=pf

Another "well informed" writer who thinks Louisville is in the Big 12. These guys have little credibility when they can even get basic facts correct.

Also, the PAC 12's last loose partnership with the ACC & Big 10 didn't go so well. I can't see them making the same mistake twice. But who knows or cares about the PAC12.