More conference realignment talk

[shoothoops]

We don't need to do Marquette next.  Marquette is already in the Big East.  And has had recent and historical success that SLU can't even dream of.  It would be like comparing USC football to Rutgers football.

Of course it matters for multiple reasons. 1) If Gonzaga doesn’t join the Big East and the Big East expands. 2) If the Big East adds multiple teams.

It’s so difficult to keep up with when people use historical information, and when they only use current or recent information. Goalposts keep moving around.’

[roadwarrior3]

I've made my posts bc Gonzaga is a darn near blue blood and Dayton & SLU are sooooo far off the national radar.  They are nothings.  I know Dayton had a GREAT run in 2020 but they're 84th in KenPom now.  SLU is 92nd. 

Gonzaga is a name.  It's a brand.  And oh by the way it's #1 in KenPom right now.  Let's look at Gonzaga during the NBE era:

KenPom: 

2022 = 1
2021 = 1
2020 = 2
2019 = 2
2018 = 10
2017 = 1
2016 = 21
2015 = 7
2014 = 24

Average KenPom ranking = 8

Should we do Dayton (73rd) or SLU (160th) now?

And while I won't pretend to know the timeline, I do know that people like Val don't publicly ponder opportunities like Gonzaga unless the deal is 85% done.   

Let's just be realists here, if you consider Dayton and SLU nothings then what do you consider Marquette, Depaul, Butler, Seton Hall? Our program may spend more than those but in terms of recent success we're right there with them.

The people who don't want to expand the conference by adding quality programs confuse me as a fan. I would love to see Marquette have more competitive games and develop rivalries with other programs like those two schools mentioned. To me, that would make for a much more enjoyable experience. Seems like a lot of folks around here though prefer feeling mighty for being in a smaller conference and getting to play Depaul twice a year. Now, I'm not advocating for a 20 team league, I agree there becomes a point of dilution, but if you can add a few schools like SLU, Dayton, even VCU or maybe Wichita State then why not? They are good programs that align with the other schools in the conference.

[wadesworld]

Of course it matters for multiple reasons. 1) If Gonzaga doesn’t join the Big East and the Big East expands. 2) If the Big East adds multiple teams.

It’s so difficult to keep up with when people use historical information, and when they only use current or recent information. Goalposts keep moving around.’

SLU has neither the historical nor recent success.  So no matter where the goalposts are placed, they miss the mark.

[Uncle Rico]

Debating between adding Dayton or St. Louis is asking if you’d like to be kicked or punched in the junk

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Let’s do Marquette next. Or DePaul or St. John’s or Georgetown etc…

Okay.

Average KP rank during NBE era:
Marquette: 61.25
Dayton: 63.38
Georgetown 66.75
St. John's: 88.88
DePaul: 121
SLU: 149

Preseason predictions are also fun. Matt Norlander has MUBB 105 and SLU in the top 68 NCAA Tourney field.

They're not that fun because they are very accurate. Norlander may be right but his rankings are one man's opinion. KenPom which uses actual data to make their predictions has the following:

MUBB 87
SLU 92

That's not to say SLU won't end up being a better team this season (again preseason rankings are inaccurate) I just don't think Matt Norlander's preseason opinion is a good argument for anything.

And in case you forget, I believe that SLU would be successful if they were added to the Big East. I also believe many other teams would be successful if promoted to the Big East as well.

[roadwarrior3]

We don't need to do Marquette next.  Marquette is already in the Big East.  And has had recent and historical success that SLU can't even dream of.  It would be like comparing Texas football to Memphis football.

Think you're really overestimating Marquette as a program if you think we are the equivalent of Texas football.

[shoothoops]

SLU has neither the historical nor recent success.  So no matter where the goalposts are placed, they miss the mark.

SLU has made the same number of NCAA Tourneys as MUBB this past decade. Also the different periods and eras have also been related to other topics such as attendance  etc..some of which has been covered.

5 NCAA Tourney 2nd weekends in 40 plus years for Marquette. 3 regular season league titles in 30 plus years. And, that’s better than some other Big East teams.

Like I said I’m all for the Big East adding Gonzaga, but most Big East schools aren’t Gonzaga.

[The Lens]

I'll gladly admit MU and others have greatly underperformed.  But you don't remedy that by adding other mediocre programs.  Expansion in the non network model (i.e. no BTN or SEC Network aspirations) is about improving the television content.  We're on a national network that wants national appeal.

- UConn is a near blue blood that did that
- Kansas and ND do that but they are probably not options
- Gonzaga does it

That's the list.  There is zero reason to add Dayton or SLU.  Sorry, it's not happening.

[Galway Eagle]

Those days are over for SLU. They have big money donors. Some of them have found their way on their BOT. They have a better AD and President situation. They upped their budget recently to the same as Xavier. And it’s still going to go up. They have spent $125 Million on 3 buildings all within the past 15 years when some of this board and admin changes have been taking place. 

That's fantastic. Money doesn't equal success though or else MU would be crushing it.

I can say confidently that fan interest will not be an issue with SLU students, SLU fans, general fans. SLU has to do their part and be competitive and successful. When they are, the whole metro area goes to their games, watches them on tv etc…that’s how it works.

This touches on the major issue of why not SLU. SLU has no real name in basketball history as a cache for when they are not competitive and if all this only happens when they are why should they be added? One has to think of best AND worst cases. People have been doing that with the Zags post Few so try it with SLU.

But if SLU could be competitive with Marquette and some of those other schools in the past, without lots of the things they have in place now, there is little reason to believe they wouldn’t compete at a high level in the future.

This isn't true at all. By that logic if Marquette could be competitive with UNC in the past without everything we have now there little reason to believe we couldn't be in the future.

On the one hand you don’t want to include some of SLU’s attendance stats that I referenced because they are too dated for you. But at the same time you want to mention Marquette’s historical success, much of which is half a century ago. Can’t have it both ways.

You can because student attendance is a snapshot of the climate of the time meanwhile overall basketball resume is a statement of the prestige (even long gone) that a program brings. Look across the BE at their resumes and then  look at SLU, there'd be a major fall off. They aren't in that stratosphere.

Finally, you keep pointing to MU's lack of March wins in the past 30-40 years as an indictment, but are happy to overlook that at SLU. When MU got called up we'd had 15yrs of 3 conference championships, 6 NITs, 6 NCAA tournaments, a sweet 16 and Final Four.

That snapshot is arguably more success than SLU in their whole history.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The factual points of reference I made matter. Let’s say it was Marquette.

But it wasn't, and isn't Marquette.  Marquette has a better history, a better program and a fanbase that shows up to game in a significant manner DESPITE lack of recent success. 

This is why it is a nonsensical comparison.

Maybe 10 years from now we will look back at SLU and see that they have become the next Gonzaga, or even the next Xavier, and will be a no brainer for the Big East to add.  Maybe all those "big money donors," investment into facilities, and supportive administration will FINALLY make a difference and SLU starts winning consistently and competing at the highest levels.  Maybe fans will show up and pack their arena.  And it would be cool if that actually DOES happen.

Marquette already has and done those things.  Yet you keep bringing it up as some sort of valid comparison.  It isn't.

[Hards Alumni]

Cause 90% of your other posts are you talking to yourself.  Endless tennis posts to nobody.  Random posts about stuff you’re interested in that isn’t engaging to others. I and many others don’t post cause predominantly we DGAF because you view Scoop as your own Wordpress blog

But when you swoop in with impassioned and biased posts about STL in sports threads? That’s worth engagement. Cause you’ve never been wrong about anything in your entire life and deal only in neutral facts and logic and you can’t bring yourself to comprehend how anyone disagrees with you without tossing out terms like troll or projection or other condescending BS. 

Yet you’re still in denial about your STL love affair.  Show me your countless other paragraphs breathlessly defending things that aren’t STL related?  Maybe the occasional diatribe about Vandy athletics

But I get it. You’re SOOOO worldly and versed and completely neutral about EVERYTHING but just a poor misunderstood victim cause everyone picks on you and STL.  Shockingly, me and countless others, who you are so firmly convinced are constantly following you and out to get you, posted on myriad topics and thrived while you spent time away from the board.

I’ll hang up and look forward to you throwing forth a bunch of labels and and explanations of what I’m actually thinking and feeling, maybe accompanied by screenshots and links of posts from 6 months to 6 years ago.  Totally normal!

But hey, it’s almost time to add Porter Moser Oklahoma updates to the shoothoops STL/Vandy/Tennis RSS feed 

o7

[shoothoops]

Okay.

Average KP rank during NBE era:
Marquette: 61.25
Dayton: 63.38
Georgetown 66.75
St. John's: 88.88
DePaul: 121
SLU: 149

They're not that fun because they are very accurate. Norlander may be right but his rankings are one man's opinion. KenPom which uses actual data to make their predictions has the following:

MUBB 87
SLU 92

That's not to say SLU won't end up being a better team this season (again preseason rankings are inaccurate) I just don't think Matt Norlander's preseason opinion is a good argument for anything.

And in case you forget, I believe that SLU would be successful if they were added to the Big East. I also believe many other teams would be successful if promoted to the Big East as well.

He used one year, preseason data of this year. I used this past year’s Big East league data as a response to what was used. It isn’t just about this team or that team vs Gonzaga. At some point looking in the mirror matters too.

Why would a non Big East School need to have Big East Results? They wouldn’t. I also don’t believe KenPom numbers are the be all end all. They are one of many tools and observations. We’ve had this discussion before. League titles and how one is doing in their league, NCAA Tourney appearances, NCAA Tourney results all matter more to me than KenPom numbers, especially when comparing apples to oranges leagues and teams etc..

SLU caught a tough break when their coach got sick and died, and, made it clear he wanted his friend to be the next coach. And they lost their top assistant to the Loyola HC position. Clearly they were doing well, and had very strong too 20 level KenPom numbers in 2012, 2013, 2014, etc…after building a program against several obstacles. And their KenPom numbers have steadily improved each of the last few seasons since having to start over again.

[roadwarrior3]

I'll gladly admit MU and others have greatly underperformed.  But you don't remedy that by adding other mediocre programs.  Expansion in the non network model (i.e. no BTN or SEC Network aspirations) is about improving the television content.  We're on a national network that wants national appeal.

- UConn is a near blue blood that did that
- Kansas and ND do that but they are probably not options
- Gonzaga does it

That's the list.  There is zero reason to add Dayton or SLU.  Sorry, it's not happening.

I mean you're adding programs who have proven they can have success. You don't think television content would've been improved if we had a top 5 team in Dayton playing at Villanova or Seton Hall in 2020? Obviously that is only one year, but the point is you're just increasing the number of schools which could have big years in your conference, increasing the chances of more marquee games for television etc.

Also, current Big East averages 4-6 teams into the tournament per year. A 14-16 member league would likely see that rise to 7-9 bids a year. More NCAA tournament teams = better television content.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Frankly, the idea of Gonzaga having its basketball in the Big East and all of its other sports in the WCC (or the Big West or Big Sky if the WCC isn't interested) makes so much sense other than the fact that is against NCAA rules. Men's basketball obviously drives the bus but I think it is unquestionable that every other program at Gonzaga would suffer if they moved to the Big East. It's a lot of travel away from their recruiting grounds and you are having to pitch recruits the idea of visiting Storrs, CT in January rather than San Diego. That's a big barrier to overcome. I think the reward for Gonzaga if high enough to at least explore the idea of how to get around NCAA rules. I have no idea if that's possible, it's probably not, but maybe it's at least worth asking the question.

[shoothoops]

But it wasn't, and isn't Marquette.  Marquette has a better history, a better program and a fanbase that shows up to game in a significant manner DESPITE lack of recent success. 

This is why it is a nonsensical comparison.

Maybe 10 years from now we will look back at SLU and see that they have become the next Gonzaga, or even the next Xavier, and will be a no brainer for the Big East to add.  Maybe all those "big money donors," investment into facilities, and supportive administration will FINALLY make a difference and SLU starts winning consistently and competing at the highest levels.  Maybe fans will show up and pack their arena.  And it would be cool if that actually DOES happen.

Marquette already has and done those things.  Yet you keep bringing it up as some sort of valid comparison.  It isn't.

No one said they didn’t.

I’m saying there is a lot of defensive chest out stuff here for a school with 5 NCAA Tourney 2nd weekends in 40 plus seasons and 3 league titles in 30 seasons.

Xavier for example, has had more success, more often, than Marquette in the past 40 years.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I mean you're adding programs who have proven they can have success. You don't think television content would've been improved if we had a top 5 team in Dayton playing at Villanova or Seton Hall in 2020? Obviously that is only one year, but the point is you're just increasing the number of schools which could have big years in your conference, increasing the chances of more marquee games for television etc.

Also, current Big East averages 4-6 teams into the tournament per year. A 14-16 member league would likely see that rise to 7-9 bids a year. More NCAA tournament teams = better television content.

The question isn't whether or not the conference would have a larger contract.  The question is if it would be larger on a PER MEMBER basis.

And I think there is a lot of validity to thinking that simply adding a 13th or 14th member wouldn't add enough to the pot.

[Uncle Rico]

I mean you're adding programs who have proven they can have success. You don't think television content would've been improved if we had a top 5 team in Dayton playing at Villanova or Seton Hall in 2020? Obviously that is only one year, but the point is you're just increasing the number of schools which could have big years in your conference, increasing the chances of more marquee games for television etc.

Also, current Big East averages 4-6 teams into the tournament per year. A 14-16 member league would likely see that rise to 7-9 bids a year. More NCAA tournament teams = better television content.

They’re not adding Dayton

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

No one said they didn’t.

I’m saying there is a lot of defensive chest out stuff here for a school with 5 NCAA Tourney 2nd weekends in 40 plus seasons and 3 league titles in 30 seasons.

Xavier for example, has had more success, more often, than Marquette in the past 40 years.

Again, who the f*ck cares?  None of this has anything to do with the viability of SLU as a BE member.

And you are one to talk about "defensive chest out stuff."  Have you read anything you posted here?

[Galway Eagle]

No one said they didn’t.

I’m saying there is a lot of defensive chest out stuff here for a school with 5 NCAA Tourney 2nd weekends in 40 plus seasons and 3 league titles in 30 seasons.

Xavier for example, has had more success, more often, than Marquette in the past 40 years.

4 (5) league titles

94 Reg
97 Tournament
03 Reg
12 Cuse had title rescinded we were 2nd
13 Reg

But yes there's plenty of chest puffing. Xavier has been predominantly better for 40yrs that really doesn't say anything other than show that programs can be much better than what SLU & Dayton have shown in order to earn an invite. 

[shoothoops]

Again, who the f*ck cares?  None of this has anything to do with the viability of SLU as a BE member.

And you are one to talk about "defensive chest out stuff."  Have you read anything you posted here?

Saying someone else is defensive while cursing at the same time illustrates my point. You had an additional post previously saying you were mocking etc..I seem to be calmly, rationally, discussing thread topics and you seem to be at times mocking and cursing.

Obviously I cared enough to mention it.

And yes it does have something to do with SLU (or any other school’s viability).

If part of the topic is whether or not SLU or any other team would be successful in the Big East, knowing the landscape of Big East teams matters.

For some the subtopic is whether or not they would be competitive/successful. For others, that part is accepted as having a good possibility, but Gonzaga is a first choice. That makes sense.

[BallBoy]

SLU has made the same number of NCAA Tourneys as MUBB this past decade. Also the different periods and eras have also been related to other topics such as attendance  etc..some of which has been covered.

5 NCAA Tourney 2nd weekends in 40 plus years for Marquette. 3 regular season league titles in 30 plus years. And, that’s better than some other Big East teams.

Like I said I’m all for the Big East adding Gonzaga, but most Big East schools aren’t Gonzaga.

NCAA tourney appearances aren’t a good measure of similarity because of the conference alignment.   I feel SLU peaks out in 80-100 in rankings. A good year at MU we are in the Top 25.

UConn was a great add to the BE because they made the top of the conference better. I feel adding SLU and Dayton would make the bottom half of the conference better. I think SLU and Depaul would be similar.

From a marketing perspective, adding SLU and Dayton don’t add a lot. Neither are considered a marquee name. If you ask the casual fan to stack rank teams historically, they would likely be in the 100s or lower.

From a money generation perspective, the SLU and Dayton TV markets aren’t adding big dollars like pulling in a Dallas or Houston school or even Gonzaga which opens the whole northwest. So they don’t bring in street cred or increase the dollars paid to the other members to improve.

Adding a Gonzaga would make the top better and it hits the other metrics but unfortunately not likely due to other constraints.  If I were the Big East commissioner, I would be looking to get a team in a big market like Houston, Dallas, DC even if they aren’t as good because that gets you into the market and generates money for MU and others to invest in the program.

Take Rutgers. They didn’t make the top half of the Big Ten better through their on court performance but they opened to the NY market for the Big Ten which means more money for the schools at the top so they can get better.

[shoothoops]

4 (5) league titles

94 Reg
97 Tournament
03 Reg
12 Cuse had title rescinded we were 2nd
13 Reg

But yes there's plenty of chest puffing. Xavier has been predominantly better for 40yrs that really doesn't say anything other than show that programs can be much better than what SLU & Dayton have shown in order to earn an invite.

My post was regular season league titles which has more value for me even though league tourney titles are important too and obviously get auto bids.

Getting an invite isn’t just about past on court success. Creighton for example, had made 2’of 6 NCAA Tourneys when they joined. They hadn’t made an NCAA 2nd weekend in 40 years at the time. Since joining the Big East, Creighton has a Sweet 16, a Regular Season Big East Title, and 5 NCAA Tourney appearances.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

He used one year, preseason data of this year. I used this past year’s Big East league data as a response to what was used. It isn’t just about this team or that team vs Gonzaga. At some point looking in the mirror matters too.

Why would a non Big East School need to have Big East Results? They wouldn’t. I also don’t believe KenPom numbers are the be all end all. They are one of many tools and observations. We’ve had this discussion before. League titles and how one is doing in their league, NCAA Tourney appearances, NCAA Tourney results all matter more to me than KenPom numbers, especially when comparing apples to oranges leagues and teams etc..

SLU caught a tough break when their coach got sick and died, and, made it clear he wanted his friend to be the next coach. And they lost their top assistant to the Loyola HC position. Clearly they were doing well, and had very strong too 20 level KenPom numbers in 2012, 2013, 2014, etc…after building a program against several obstacles. And their KenPom numbers have steadily improved each of the last few seasons since having to start over again.

I don't think KenPom is the end all be all either. You said:

Let’s do Marquette next. Or DePaul or St. John’s or Georgetown etc…

And I did.

Why would a non Big East School need to have Big East Results?

Because the question when deciding whether or not to add a team to a conference isn't "would they be successful?" as you've been focusing on. The question is "are they valuable enough to justify slicing the pie an additional time?". I'm not even sure the "would they be successful?" question is relevant at all. Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They had no chance of being successful in the B1G's flagship sport but they were added because they were valuable enough in other ways (whether that is still true is a matter of debate).

I think many teams, including SLU (and including some lesser teams than SLU) would be successful in the Big East. I think very few teams are valuable enough to justify splitting the pot an additional way (while also being within the realm of possibility). UConn was the most obvious one and Val made it happen. Gonzaga, Notre Dame, and Kansas are probably the only other three at this point and the second two are a lot closer to impossible than possible right now. Maybe in the future, SLU or another school continues to improve and makes themselves valuable enough to justify an invite.

We're not running from a bear here. The goal isn't to be better than the worst program in the conference (unless we are allowed to kick out DePaul then maybe we talk) the goal is to be better than the majority of the programs in the conference so that the conference is improved rather than watered down.

[shoothoops]

NCAA tourney appearances aren’t a good measure of similarity because of the conference alignment.   I feel SLU peaks out in 80-100 in rankings. A good year at MU we are in the Top 25.

UConn was a great add to the BE because they made the top of the conference better. I feel adding SLU and Dayton would make the bottom half of the conference better. I think SLU and Depaul would be similar.

From a marketing perspective, adding SLU and Dayton don’t add a lot. Neither are considered a marquee name. If you ask the casual fan to stack rank teams historically, they would likely be in the 100s or lower.

From a money generation perspective, the SLU and Dayton TV markets aren’t adding big dollars like pulling in a Dallas or Houston school or even Gonzaga which opens the whole northwest. So they don’t bring in street cred or increase the dollars paid to the other members to improve.

Adding a Gonzaga would make the top better and it hits the other metrics but unfortunately not likely due to other constraints.  If I were the Big East commissioner, I would be looking to get a team in a big market like Houston, Dallas, DC even if they aren’t as good because that gets you into the market and generates money for MU and others to invest in the program.

Take Rutgers. They didn’t make the top half of the Big Ten better through their on court performance but they opened to the NY market for the Big Ten which means more money for the schools at the top so they can get better.

80-100?

SLU was 53 KenPom this past season, better than 8 Big East Teams. They were a top 20 team multiple years during this past decade.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I also don’t believe KenPom numbers are the be all end all.

SLU was 53 KenPom this past season, better than 8 Big East Teams. They were a top 20 team multiple years during this past decade.