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Author Topic: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....  (Read 5048 times)

MU82

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #75 on: July 21, 2021, 10:30:13 PM »
Except Shaka is not starting his first season. It will be his 13th year as a head coach, including six at another high major.  He's already a known commodity to the AAU programs, the HS coaches, top recruits, etc.  He's exactly the type of guy that should be able to fill a roster with players who can win right away.  Especially if he has playing time to offer.

If we had hired yet another unproven assistant in his first D1 coaching job or some low-major coach that pulled an upset in the NCAA tournament, then, yes, I could see things getting worse before they get better.

Do you think Buzz Williams is a good coach?

If so, why? He didn't win at VaTech until Year 3, and he did not win in his first two years at Texas A&M.

If not, never mind my question ... though I could give plenty of other examples of "proven" high-major coaches who didn't win big (or very much at all, really) after changing schools.
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Pakuni

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #76 on: July 21, 2021, 11:00:32 PM »
Do you think Buzz Williams is a good coach?

If so, why? He didn't win at VaTech until Year 3, and he did not win in his first two years at Texas A&M.

But both VaTech and A&M won more games in Buzz's first season than the season before he was hired. And the Hokies went 20-15 (including 10-8 in a good ACC) in Buzz's second season.

Quote
If not, never mind my question ... though I could give plenty of other examples of "proven" high-major coaches who didn't win big (or very much at all, really) after changing schools.

Sure, and I could name plenty of examples of coaches who did win after changing schools.
I don't think many, if any, of us are expecting MU to "win big" this year, but why is unreasonable to expect the team to be competitive?

MU82

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #77 on: July 21, 2021, 11:37:17 PM »
But both VaTech and A&M won more games in Buzz's first season than the season before he was hired. And the Hokies went 20-15 (including 10-8 in a good ACC) in Buzz's second season.

Oh, I thought we were talking about making the NCAA tournament. Here was the OP's second line: No Shaka doesn't get a pass this season and he better make the NCAA tournament. Goose, as bullish on Shaka as any Scooper, came right out and said today that he expects a tourney appearance and won't give a "free pass" if Shaka fails to deliver. But if the bar is only to beat Wojo's previous losing season, or just to be a couple/few games over .500 with no NCAAs, sure, I could see that happening.

Sure, and I could name plenty of examples of coaches who did win after changing schools.
I don't think many, if any, of us are expecting MU to "win big" this year, but why is unreasonable to expect the team to be competitive?

I think it's very reasonable to expect the team to be competitive. I expect us to "compete" -- work hard, play aggressive D, make the other team earn everything they get -- and I expect us to improve as the season goes along.
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TAMU Eagle

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #78 on: July 21, 2021, 11:48:00 PM »
Wojo wasn't paid $8 million to go away, and Shaka wasn't paid whatever he was paid to move north, so the program could tank a season or two in the hopes a bunch of borderline top 100 freshmen become the core of a title contender.
Shaka was hired to win ASAP, and I fully believe he wants to win ASAP.

Wojo was paid ~$8 million to go away because MU was given the choice between having someone else pay for it now and pressing the reset button a year early or risk having to pay ~$6 million for him to go away next year and be another year away from being relevant. Was an easy choice. Those in charge understand it is a process.

How much time does it take to build a program? Ask Juwan Howard. Ask Chris Beard. Heck, ask Rick Pitino.

Juwan Howard didn't need to build a program, Beilein built it for him and he was worse in his first season than Beilein was in his last.

Rick Pitino took over a team that had won its crappy conference 4 out of the 5 previous seasons. Cluess ran Iona for 10 seasons and in 8 of them, the Gaels finished higher in KenPom than Pitino did in his first season.

Chris Beard is a unicorn but even he needed more than one season to get Tech to the NCAA tournament (and Tubby was better in his last season than Wojo was in his).

But both VaTech and A&M won more games in Buzz's first season than the season before he was hired. And the Hokies went 20-15 (including 10-8 in a good ACC) in Buzz's second season.

Both VaTech and A&M dropped in KenPom in Buzz' first year from the season before. VaTech barely (literally by 1 spot). TAMU significantly (40 spots). Buzz needed two years in Blacksburg and it's looking like he's going to need at least 4 in College Station.

Jeez, does anyone think UNC, Arizona and Indiana fans would be cool with a coach not trying to win?

Who said anything about not trying to win? Smart is not a coach who is going to win by assembling a different collection of 5-star freshmen and top transfers every season. He is going to win by establishing a well-defined culture/system and recruiting players that buy into what he's doing and develop over multiple years. Both ways work and teams that win championships tend to have elements of both. No one is saying that Shaka isn't trying to win, just that it might take more than a season for the winning to get to the level we want it to be at.

I don't think many, if any, of us are expecting MU to "win big" this year, but why is unreasonable to expect the team to be competitive?

It's not. It's just that "competitive" which I'm taking to mean barely making the NCAAT, is the likely ceiling for this team. So far any ranking or article I have read from a non-Marquette source has Marquette ranked somewhere between 7th and 11th in the Big East...and the Big East is not that good this season. This is disappointing, I was hoping Shaka would take more of a win-now approach, but he hasn't.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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bilsu

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #79 on: July 21, 2021, 11:48:14 PM »
Al McGuire only won 8 games his first year at MU, which was four more than the year before.

My prediction for this year is 7-4, 5-15 & 1-1 for 13-20, so my expectations are low.

What I am most interested in is how Shaka does in the current recruiting season. A new coach brings excitement and hope to a program. He can sell dreams without the disappointment of not winning enough. He will have a harder time recruiting the season after this, if MU finishes anything near the 13-20 record I fear. I think the Bucks winning the NBA title should help recruiting, but maybe it does not matter in the end. Wojo, with his boring personality, was able to recruit top 40 classes to MU. I expect no less from Shaka this season. He will not succeed at MU, if he does not have a top 40 recruiting class this year. The commitments Shaka has in November is what I will base my judgement on.

lawdog77

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #80 on: July 22, 2021, 06:40:59 AM »

My prediction for this year is 7-4, 5-15 & 1-1 for 13-20, so my expectations are low.
If we go 5-15 in the Big East, this will be a MAJOR disappointment for everyone. That's DePaul like numbers. It, to me, means the team didn't improve during the season. I see us hovering around the .500 mark all year., with a winning streak at the end. 7-4 nonconference, 11-9 conference, win a few in the BET. BubbleTeam.

muwarrior69

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #81 on: July 22, 2021, 07:22:34 AM »
Wojo was paid ~$8 million to go away because MU was given the choice between having someone else pay for it now and pressing the reset button a year early or risk having to pay ~$6 million for him to go away next year and be another year away from being relevant. Was an easy choice. Those in charge understand it is a process.

Juwan Howard didn't need to build a program, Beilein built it for him and he was worse in his first season than Beilein was in his last.

Rick Pitino took over a team that had won its crappy conference 4 out of the 5 previous seasons. Cluess ran Iona for 10 seasons and in 8 of them, the Gaels finished higher in KenPom than Pitino did in his first season.

Chris Beard is a unicorn but even he needed more than one season to get Tech to the NCAA tournament (and Tubby was better in his last season than Wojo was in his).

Both VaTech and A&M dropped in KenPom in Buzz' first year from the season before. VaTech barely (literally by 1 spot). TAMU significantly (40 spots). Buzz needed two years in Blacksburg and it's looking like he's going to need at least 4 in College Station.

Who said anything about not trying to win? Smart is not a coach who is going to win by assembling a different collection of 5-star freshmen and top transfers every season. He is going to win by establishing a well-defined culture/system and recruiting players that buy into what he's doing and develop over multiple years. Both ways work and teams that win championships tend to have elements of both. No one is saying that Shaka isn't trying to win, just that it might take more than a season for the winning to get to the level we want it to be at.

It's not. It's just that "competitive" which I'm taking to mean barely making the NCAAT, is the likely ceiling for this team. So far any ranking or article I have read from a non-Marquette source has Marquette ranked somewhere between 7th and 11th in the Big East...and the Big East is not that good this season. This is disappointing, I was hoping Shaka would take more of a win-now approach, but he hasn't.

I disagree. Shaka has 9 4 year players to mold his team and build a foundation for a winning program.

4everwarriors

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #82 on: July 22, 2021, 07:25:18 AM »
Dis 'hole NIL thin' iz gonna kill a skool like MU, hey?
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tower912

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #83 on: July 22, 2021, 07:40:08 AM »
Dis 'hole NIL thin' iz gonna kill a skool like MU, hey?
Right after the bucks get rid of Giannis and get a real coach, aina?
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Hards_Alumni

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #84 on: July 22, 2021, 07:41:23 AM »
Dis 'hole NIL thin' iz gonna kill a skool like MU, hey?

Honestly, I think a lot of people here think it will be beneficial.  But I'm with you here, doc.

Uncle Rico

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #85 on: July 22, 2021, 07:48:23 AM »
Dis 'hole NIL thin' iz gonna kill a skool like MU, hey?

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brewcity77

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #86 on: July 22, 2021, 07:58:30 AM »
He will not succeed at MU, if he does not have a top 40 recruiting class this year. The commitments Shaka has in November is what I will base my judgement on.

I strongly believe this isn't true anymore. Look at Wojo's 2015 class. Would Heldt have stayed behind Fischer for 2 years if he could've been immediately eligible elsewhere? Would Anim have redshirted as a sophomore, or did he only agree to that because he would've had to sit that year anywhere?

I do believe in building a core, which we have, but from here on the best practice will be getting players that can help you win immediately. Someone like Leon Bond? Absolutely. He's a top-50 guy that will get minutes from the jump and have a chance to step into the Darryl Morsell role as a freshman.

But guys in the 75-150 range that will need to develop? Why take them? They'll leave when they don't play because they don't have to sit out. Build a relationship, but let them go elsewhere, develop, and then take them in a year or two when you've seen if they pan out. That's basically what the staff has already done with Kolek & O-Max. Let someone else develop them, see if there's enough there to play at this level, then take them in.

I think taking no more than 1-3 freshmen in any class is the way to go and fill out the rest of the roster in April with transfers that will help you now, not in 2-3 years. That's the best place to get both long term options like Kolek & O-Max who have college resumes and to get neo-one-and-dones like Kuath & Morsell that are ready to be high major starters now.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #87 on: July 22, 2021, 08:13:10 AM »
I strongly believe this isn't true anymore. Look at Wojo's 2015 class. Would Heldt have stayed behind Fischer for 2 years if he could've been immediately eligible elsewhere? Would Anim have redshirted as a sophomore, or did he only agree to that because he would've had to sit that year anywhere?

I do believe in building a core, which we have, but from here on the best practice will be getting players that can help you win immediately. Someone like Leon Bond? Absolutely. He's a top-50 guy that will get minutes from the jump and have a chance to step into the Darryl Morsell role as a freshman.

But guys in the 75-150 range that will need to develop? Why take them? They'll leave when they don't play because they don't have to sit out. Build a relationship, but let them go elsewhere, develop, and then take them in a year or two when you've seen if they pan out. That's basically what the staff has already done with Kolek & O-Max. Let someone else develop them, see if there's enough there to play at this level, then take them in.

I think taking no more than 1-3 freshmen in any class is the way to go and fill out the rest of the roster in April with transfers that will help you now, not in 2-3 years. That's the best place to get both long term options like Kolek & O-Max who have college resumes and to get neo-one-and-dones like Kuath & Morsell that are ready to be high major starters now.

This dovetails perfectly with the comments from coaches in Gary Parrish's article (CBS Sports.com) on the new recruiting philosophies that have emerged. Bruce Pearl's summed it up nicely by saying that in the past he would "take 3-4" HS kids, but going "now its going to be more like 1-2."
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MU82

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #88 on: July 22, 2021, 08:18:14 AM »
Honestly, I think a lot of people here think it will be beneficial.

A lot of us simply don't know whether or not it will prove to be beneficial to Marquette basketball. We'll have to see how this whole thing develops over time.

But many of us believe that letting college students benefit financially from their own names, images and likenesses is the right thing to do.

Just as letting Black people play MLB and other pro and college sports was the right thing to do, just as letting women benefit from athletic scholarships was the right thing to do, just as letting freshmen participate in college sports at the varsity level was the right thing to do, etc etc etc.

There is always an adjustment period following any major change. Hopefully, Marquette basketball will prove to be one of the beneficiaries of this new world order, which was gonna happen sooner or later no matter what anybody here thinks.
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TAMU Eagle

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #89 on: July 22, 2021, 08:23:04 AM »
Personally, I think if everyone else is trying to assemble "superteams" through the transfer market, I think there will be a premium on coaches who can keep rosters together for multiple seasons. I look at the teams making and winning national championships and it's filled with teams that have had players playing together for multiple seasons. Sure they have a transfer or 5-star FR or two as pieces on the team but the majority of the team has been playing for the same program for at least two seasons. Maybe the new rules will change that moving forward but my prediction is that transfer superteams (see Texas) will enjoy plenty of NCAAT appearances but very few trips to the Final Four.
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And the wisdom to know the difference.

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Hards_Alumni

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #90 on: July 22, 2021, 08:37:02 AM »
A lot of us simply don't know whether or not it will prove to be beneficial to Marquette basketball. We'll have to see how this whole thing develops over time.

But many of us believe that letting college students benefit financially from their own names, images and likenesses is the right thing to do.

Just as letting Black people play MLB and other pro and college sports was the right thing to do, just as letting women benefit from athletic scholarships was the right thing to do, just as letting freshmen participate in college sports at the varsity level was the right thing to do, etc etc etc.

There is always an adjustment period following any major change. Hopefully, Marquette basketball will prove to be one of the beneficiaries of this new world order, which was gonna happen sooner or later no matter what anybody here thinks.


Weird segue into political stuff.

I never said it was bad for the players, just will probably not be as good for Marquette basketball as some around here seem to think.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #91 on: July 22, 2021, 09:04:08 AM »
Honestly, I think a lot of people here think it will be beneficial.  But I'm with you here, doc.

I would love to see Harley Davidson get involved with Marquette's basketball team with advertising.

After a cursory internet review of Harley Davidson's financial status and position in the marketplace, it seems that they have rebounded very nicely from a dark period that was only partially due to Covid. Their new president has impressively turned things around in just one year but market surveys show a long term problem with millennials disinterest in HD's products. This could be a great opportunity for HD and MU. 
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #92 on: July 22, 2021, 09:05:32 AM »
I would love to see Harley Davidson get involved with Marquette's basketball team with advertising.

After a cursory internet review of Harley Davidson's financial status and position in the marketplace, it seems that they have rebounded very nicely from a dark period that was only partially due to Covid. Their new president has impressively turned things around in just one year but market surveys show a long term problem with millennials disinterest in HD's products. This could be a great opportunity for HD and MU. 


The current batch of players aren't millennials though. 
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Pakuni

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #93 on: July 22, 2021, 09:18:31 AM »
Who said anything about not trying to win? Smart is not a coach who is going to win by assembling a different collection of 5-star freshmen and top transfers every season. He is going to win by establishing a well-defined culture/system and recruiting players that buy into what he's doing and develop over multiple years. Both ways work and teams that win championships tend to have elements of both. No one is saying that Shaka isn't trying to win, just that it might take more than a season for the winning to get to the level we want it to be at.

Quotes from this thread:

"I do not expect an >.500 season."

Q: "Why should our expectations be any less than a NCAA Tournament bid?"
A: Because some of us are actually realistic?

"Given the way he assembled the roster, making it very clear that he did not elect to pursue a "win now" strategy,"

"This was a deliberate decision by Shaka to not pursue the top talent in the transfer portal. I think we will see that Shaka's goal is to recruit players who will buy into the culture he is building, not necessarily chase the top rated talent."

"Shaka is starting his first season. It is very common for things to get worse before they get better with coaching changes."


The theme of all these posts is that Shaka is punting on the 2021-22 season in hopes of building something long term. I think that's wrong. I think Shaka wants to win now AND build something long term.
And contrary to what some of you all think, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Now ... who said anything about "assembling a different collection of 5-star freshmen and top transfers every season?"

Quote
Both VaTech and A&M dropped in KenPom in Buzz' first year from the season before. VaTech barely (literally by 1 spot). TAMU significantly (40 spots). Buzz needed two years in Blacksburg and it's looking like he's going to need at least 4 in College Station.

Do teams now hang banners, win trophies and receive rings for KenPom rankings? I'm sure Gonzaga takes great solace in their title game loss knowing that at least they beat Baylor in KenPom.
82 said Buzz's first teams at Tech and A&M lost more than the team before them. They didn't.

As for it taking Buzz four years to win at A&M, that's assuming facts not in evidence.

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #94 on: July 22, 2021, 09:30:34 AM »
Do teams now hang banners, win trophies and receive rings for KenPom rankings? I'm sure Gonzaga takes great solace in their title game loss knowing that at least they beat Baylor in KenPom.
82 said Buzz's first teams at Tech and A&M lost more than the team before them. They didn't.



Do teams now hang banners for winning more games than the season before?

TAMU was simply pointing out that "winning more games" doesn't necessarily mean "improvement" if the games you were winning were simply easier to win.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #95 on: July 22, 2021, 09:35:35 AM »
The theme of all these posts is that Shaka is punting on the 2021-22 season in hopes of building something long term. I think that's wrong. I think Shaka wants to win now AND build something long term.
And contrary to what some of you all think, the two aren't mutually exclusive.


I think you are being pedantic about what a "win now strategy" means.  Of course he is trying to do both.  But my guess is that he thinks the best way for Marquette to build a program is through bringing in players who are going to grow within the program rather than get a bunch of players with limited eligibility after this year.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

Pakuni

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #96 on: July 22, 2021, 09:41:28 AM »

Do teams now hang banners for winning more games than the season before?

TAMU was simply pointing out that "winning more games" doesn't necessarily mean "improvement" if the games you were winning were simply easier to win.

I'll go over it slow.
82 said Buzz's first teams at those schools won less than their predecessors. I just pointed out that wasn't quite true. Rather than just accept that as fact, TAMU decided to reframe the discussion around KenPom.

This isn't an argument about the value of wins vs KenPom (though we can have that discussion, if you like).

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #97 on: July 22, 2021, 09:51:09 AM »
Wojo left the cupboard bare, aina?

Pakuni

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #98 on: July 22, 2021, 09:52:34 AM »

I think you are being pedantic about what a "win now strategy" means.  Of course he is trying to do both.  But my guess is that he thinks the best way for Marquette to build a program is through bringing in players who are going to grow within the program rather than get a bunch of players with limited eligibility after this year.

And yet he brought in two, and tried to bring in more, players who wouldn't be here beyond this year. And it sure seems he wanted Dawson and DJ back, two more kids not likely to be here beyond this year.
You're all foisting upon Shaka a strategy that his actions say he's not pursuing.

I agree entirely that he wants to build a culture, and bring in players who buy into that. Nobody here has suggested otherwise. But doing that doesn't require punting on 2021-22.
If MU finishes below .500 this year, battles it out with DePaul for the BE cellar, takes a step back (either in record or KenPom) it won't be because it's all part of Shaka's grand plan. It'll be because the team failed to meet his - and what should be our - expectations.

brewcity77

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Re: Sorry no pass for Shaka this season....
« Reply #99 on: July 22, 2021, 09:59:58 AM »
Personally, I think if everyone else is trying to assemble "superteams" through the transfer market, I think there will be a premium on coaches who can keep rosters together for multiple seasons. I look at the teams making and winning national championships and it's filled with teams that have had players playing together for multiple seasons. Sure they have a transfer or 5-star FR or two as pieces on the team but the majority of the team has been playing for the same program for at least two seasons. Maybe the new rules will change that moving forward but my prediction is that transfer superteams (see Texas) will enjoy plenty of NCAAT appearances but very few trips to the Final Four.

I'm hoping the way Shaka is going about things works. Effectively, we have a core of:

PG: Mitchell, Ellis
SG: Kolek, Jones
SF: Joplin, Lewis
PF: Oso, O-Max
C: Itejere

Some of the positions are fluid, but if you can develop those guys, keep most around, and fill in with ready to play freshmen like Bond or Momcilovich or proven transfers like Kuath and Morsell I believe that's the way forward. The most valuable commodities will be the 4-year guys that can contribute in year one.

I also think Marquette might be doing some of the fake recruiting that was talked about at EYBL last weekend. Basically, recruit and offer a kid you don't plan to take so if they pan out elsewhere, you have a relationship built when they transfer and can get to the front of the line. I wonder how many of the vast number of offers we've made recently are truly actionable. My guess is some are trying to seed future transfer options.