Big East NCAA Tournament Thread 20-21 Season

[Hards Alumni]

Just asking, why are you using a metric that was retried years ago because of how inaccurate it was?

I'm not sure it was retired.  Probably fell out of favor, sure.  If it isn't allowed, I'll stop looking at it. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm not sure it was retired.  Probably fell out of favor, sure.  If it isn't allowed, I'll stop looking at it. 

You can do whatever you want, but it literally was retired by the selection committee for inaccuracy. It's not considered anymore.

[wisblue]

Can you please share the link that shows these scenarios?

This is what I've been looking at:

http://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

In the scenario you described Connecticut beats Georgetown, Creighton beats Butler, and Marquette loses to Xavier.

Nova, Creighton, UConn, and DePaul already have their spots locked in at 1, 2,3, and 11, and a loss by MU locks them in at 10. The other 6 teams would have these records, pending results of the other two games (Villanova vs Providence and St. John's vs Seton Hall) :

Seton Hall 10-8
St. John's 9-9
Xavier 7-6
Providence 8-10
Georgetown 7-9
Butler 8-12
Marquette 7-12

Butler would be locked in at 9 and Seton Hall and Xavier couldn't fall lower than 6, removing them as possible MU opponents. The worst case scenario for St. John's would be a loss combined with a Providence win over Villanova, which would leave them in a tie for the 6 spot with Providence.St. John's would win that tiebreaker (2 wins over PC) , putting PC in the 7 spot.

The bottom line is that in the scenario you started with, MU would face Providence if the Friars beat Villanova, and Georgetown if Villanova wins.

St. John's could fall to the 7 seed in scenarios involving Georgetown beating UConn and St. John's losing to Seton Hall.

[The Big East]

Given the events of the last couple of days, the Big East Tournament is wide open.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This is what I've been looking at:

http://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

In the scenario you described Connecticut beats Georgetown, Creighton beats Butler, and Marquette loses to Xavier.

Nova, Creighton, UConn, and DePaul already have their spots locked in at 1, 2,3, and 11, and a loss by MU locks them in at 10. The other 6 teams would have these records, pending results of the other two games (Villanova vs Providence and St. John's vs Seton Hall) :

Seton Hall 10-8
St. John's 9-9
Xavier 7-6
Providence 8-10
Georgetown 7-9
Butler 8-12
Marquette 7-12

Butler would be locked in at 9 and Seton Hall and Xavier couldn't fall lower than 6, removing them as possible MU opponents. The worst case scenario for St. John's would be a loss combined with a Providence win over Villanova, which would leave them in a tie for the 6 spot with Providence.St. John's would win that tiebreaker (2 wins over PC) , putting PC in the 7 spot.

The bottom line is that in the scenario you started with, MU would face Providence if the Friars beat Villanova, and Georgetown if Villanova wins.

St. John's could fall to the 7 seed in scenarios involving Georgetown beating UConn and St. John's losing to Seton Hall.

Thanks!

If all TRANK favored teams win on Sat, standings would look like this:

1. Villanova (12 - 3)
2. Creighton (14 - 6)
3. UConn (11 - 6)
4. Seton Hall (11 - 8)
5. St John's (9 - 10)
6. Xavier (6 - 7)
7. G'town (7 - 9)
8. Providence (8 - 11) Defeated Marquette based on winning percentage against #3 teams [UConn] (1-1).
9. Marquette (8 - 11) Lost to Providence based on winning percentage against #3 teams [UConn] (0-2).
10. Butler (8 - 12)
11. DePaul (2 - 13)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This probably as good of a draw as we can hope for assuming we also win tomorrow.  But this requires Butler to beat Creighton which I guess is possible, but doubtful. 

1. Villanova (12 - 3)
2. Creighton (13 - 7)
3. UConn (11 - 6)
4. Seton Hall (11 - 8)
5. St John's (9 - 10)
6. Xavier (6 - 7)
7. Butler (9 - 11)
8. G'town (7 - 9)
9. Providence (8 - 11) Defeated Marquette based on winning percentage against #3 teams [UConn] (1-1).
10. Marquette (8 - 11) Lost to Providence based on winning percentage against #3 teams [UConn] (0-2).
11. DePaul (2 - 13)

[MuggsyB]

Look, I realize running the table is extremely doubtful.  However, this is not the B12 or B10 where we literally have no chance.  The fact of the matter is most of the conf has similar issues to us and are extremely beatable.  To say that things haven't gotten a lot more interesting for the bottom feeders in the BET(minus DePaul) is incorrect. 

It's unfortunate that we beat ourselves with boneheaded plays, unconscionable bricking. wild inconsistency, and periods of wtf is going on with the entire team looking lost along with the coaches.   I don't have any clear answers why this happens so often despite accepting we have serious deficiencies.

I have called for this thing to be MOAB'ed as soon as possible and for us to get a coach in here that can turn this around.  Nothing will change my opinion on this front.  Nevertheless, don't tell me we have no shot.  We absolutely have the talent to beat every team in this league including the top 3.

If I was in the locker room, while you never wish an opposing player to get injured or the mess at Creighton, I would be giddy.  You would see me working on my ball skills and limited hops with enthusiasm and relishing this opportunity.  I'd be zooming around, doing the best I could to motivate the guys, and be confident starting tomorrow.  To quote Al Neary in the Godfather who when pondering with Michael  Corleone can they get Hyman Roth in broad daylight? :  "Difficult, not impossible".  You're damn right.  Nothing is over people.  Carpe Diem.

[5DollarPitcher]

Collin Gillespie is not Giannis or Steph Curry. Villanova would still steamroll everyone in the conference outside of Creighton in a tournament setting. They'll be in the championship again - just watch.

[willie warrior]

True....

Believe it or not we have a punchers chance.

Riiiiiggghhhhtttt. I have a bridge for sale.

[4everwarriors]

Yeah. I'm not really excited about our ability to go on a long run, but with Gillespie out and McDermott suspended, anything can happen.

Yeah butt, da playas ar gonna go out and wynn won four McDermy, hey?

[Boone]

We haven't won more than 2 in a row all season and now we have a puncher's chance to reel off 4 wins in 4 days?! With this coach and this thin and inconsistent team? Sounds more like a punch drunk prediction

[Galway Eagle]

We haven't won more than 2 in a row all season and now we have a puncher's chance to reel off 4 wins in 4 days?! With this coach and this thin and inconsistent team? Sounds more like a punch drunk prediction

It's wojos 4D chess this way team 3 and 4 won't take us seriously

[MuggsyB]

We haven't won more than 2 in a row all season and now we have a puncher's chance to reel off 4 wins in 4 days?! With this coach and this thin and inconsistent team? Sounds more like a punch drunk prediction

I agree that it's not likely but you can't lose hope Boone.  I think there's about a 5-10%, chance, just my guess.  None of these teams would scare me at all.  I do agree that there is no evidence we can play at a reasonable level for 4 straight games but psychologically things can change in a tourney win or go home format.  We have absolutely no pressure, maybe they will surprise people?

[Dr. Blackheart]

We haven't won more than 2 in a row all season and now we have a puncher's chance to reel off 4 wins in 4 days?! With this coach and this thin and inconsistent team? Sounds more like a punch drunk prediction

[brewcity77]

There is a 0% chance the Big East gets 3 bids.  Zero. 

edit: Maybe, I will soften that a bit.  But at least 1 of Seton Hall or Xavier are going to get in.  And I think both is more likely than neither.  Though if we beat X tomorrow, they're really reeling.  Big game for them.

If the season ended now, I think it would be 3. If SHU and Xavier lose Saturday (both are road underdogs) they likely need the autobid. This league is not good. The only version of this league that was worse was 2019.

[The Sultan]

We haven't won more than 2 in a row all season and now we have a puncher's chance to reel off 4 wins in 4 days?! With this coach and this thin and inconsistent team? Sounds more like a punch drunk prediction

We need to frame it differently.  We are really good at winning one in a row. 

So we just have to win one in a row....four times. 

[Uncle Rico]

We haven't won more than 2 in a row all season and now we have a puncher's chance to reel off 4 wins in 4 days?! With this coach and this thin and inconsistent team? Sounds more like a punch drunk prediction

I'd be happy if they ever won 2 games in a Big East tournament again

[brewcity77]

I'd be happy if they ever won 2 games in a Big East tournament again

Going on a decade. 2011 was the last time we won two BET games in the same tournament.

[Hards Alumni]

Going on a decade. 2011 was the last time we won two BET games in the same tournament.

Pain.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If the season ended now, I think it would be 3. If SHU and Xavier lose Saturday (both are road underdogs) they likely need the autobid. This league is not good. The only version of this league that was worse was 2019.

If you go by KenPom, it actually ends up 5/8.


1. 19-20: +15.49 AdjEM (6 NCAAs, 1-2 NITs*)
2. 17-18: +15.33 AdjEM (6 NCAAs, 1 NIT)
3. 16-17: +14.54 AdjEM (7 NCAAs, 0 NITs)
4. 14-15: +14.24 AdjEM (6 NCAAs, 0 NITs)
5. 20-21: +14.10 AdjEM ???
6. 15-16: +13.94 AdjEM (5 NCAAs, 1 NIT)
7. 13-14: +12.26 AdjEM(4 NCAAs, 2 NITs)
8. 18-19: +10.46 AdjEM (4 NCAAs, 5 NITs)

Man, 18-19 was a weird year. 9 teams in the postseason, Depaul had a winning record, still the worst. Parity sucks.

[Lennys Tap]

Also, historically weak?  The Big East isn't even the worst high major conference in the current season.

Historically Asian it's history. When has the Big East been this bad?

[wadesworld]

Historically Asian it's history. When has the Big East been this bad?

According to one post above yours, Kenpom says 18-19, 13-14, and 15-16 were all worse seasons by the Big East.

All timer, hey?

[Uncle Rico]

Historically Asian it's history. When has the Big East been this bad?

Early 90's, post-heyday was pretty bad, mediocre

[MuggsyB]

Bam.

Exactly Dr. B.


I refuse to believe we have no chance. 

Whatever happened to hope?   Andy D.  escaped Shawshank Prison. 

[brewcity77]

If you go by KenPom, it actually ends up 5/8.


1. 19-20: +15.49 AdjEM (6 NCAAs, 1-2 NITs*)
2. 17-18: +15.33 AdjEM (6 NCAAs, 1 NIT)
3. 16-17: +14.54 AdjEM (7 NCAAs, 0 NITs)
4. 14-15: +14.24 AdjEM (6 NCAAs, 0 NITs)
5. 20-21: +14.10 AdjEM ???
6. 15-16: +13.94 AdjEM (5 NCAAs, 1 NIT)
7. 13-14: +12.26 AdjEM(4 NCAAs, 2 NITs)
8. 18-19: +10.46 AdjEM (4 NCAAs, 5 NITs)

Man, 18-19 was a weird year. 9 teams in the postseason, Depaul had a winning record, still the worst. Parity sucks.

I don't think comparing AdjEM this year is an equal comparison. This year's Big East is the highest scored 5th placed league in the past decade and would've been the 2nd or 3rd ranked league many years. According to AdjEM, both Nova and Creighton this year are better than the Xavier 1-seed of a few years back and better than any Big East teams of the past 5 years other than the Nova 2017 1-seed & 2018 national champs. And let's be real, neither of those teams are as good as any of the top-3 Big East teams from last year.

AdjEM seems flawed this year if you're going to compare it to other years, likely because we didn't have as many games against top non-con competition.