Big East NCAA Tournament Thread 20-21 Season

[GooooMarquette]

True....

Believe it or not we have a punchers chance.

Yeah. I’m not really excited about our ability to go on a long run, but with Gillespie out and McDermott suspended, anything can happen.

[MuggsyB]

W
W
W
W

It absolutely can happen.  No world beaters in the BEast. Hopefully we show up.

[MU82]

W
W
W
W

It absolutely can happen.  No world beaters in the BEast. Hopefully we show up.

Love this, Muggs!

[MuggsyB]

Love this, Muggs!

I agree that UCONN is the team to avoid but in light of what's happened the last 24 hrs,  MU's chances have increased exponentially.  This is a highly unusual situation for a 10th ot 9th place team in the conf.  I think the mindset should be there's a great opportunity next week.

[MU82]

I agree that UCONN is the team to avoid but in light of what's happened the last 24 hrs,  MU's chances have increased exponentially.  This is a highly unusual situation for a 10th ot 9th place team in the conf.  I think the mindset should be there's a great opportunity next week.

I think that will be the mindset. I don't believe that "want-to" has been a problem at all for this team.

We simply have long stretches during which we execute poorly, and/or shoot poorly, and/or defend poorly. And when you aren't a very well-coached team to begin with, it makes for trouble.

It's the same song and dance as it has been: If we take care of the ball and shoot even reasonably well, we will have a legit chance to win every single game.

[brewcity77]

Love this, Muggs!

The problem isn't the world beaters, it's the rest of the league that is 6-2 against us in return games this year. The only teams we beat the second time around were 9th place Butler & 11th place DePaul.

Maybe we pick off a no-Gillespie Nova or coachless Creighton, but I have no confidence against UConn, SHU, Providence, etc.

[SaveOD238]

The problem isn't the world beaters, it's the rest of the league that is 6-2 against us in return games this year. The only teams we beat the second time around were 9th place Butler & 11th place DePaul.

Maybe we pick off a no-Gillespie Nova or coachless Creighton, but I have no confidence against UConn, SHU, Providence, etc.

The return games stat, especially in the last three years, is the most damning stat on Wojo's resume.

[MU82]

The problem isn't the world beaters, it's the rest of the league that is 6-2 against us in return games this year. The only teams we beat the second time around were 9th place Butler & 11th place DePaul.

Maybe we pick off a no-Gillespie Nova or coachless Creighton, but I have no confidence against UConn, SHU, Providence, etc.

Don’t mistake my belief that we have a legit chance to beat each opponent if we play well ... with me thinking we actually will put it together for 4 straight days.

And I probably think we have a better chance than most Scoopers do!

[5DollarPitcher]

I hate to rain on the optimist’s parade but we have an exactly 0.000% chance of winning the BET.

[Galway Eagle]

I hate to rain on the optimist’s parade but we have an exactly 0.000% chance of winning the BET.

Actually I think someone calculated it at 2.xx% (can't remember the decimal)

[wisblue]

Villanova suddenly looks much more beatable.  Still a long shot, but definitely possible without Gillaspie.

Current standings:
Nova 11-3
Creighton 13-6
UCONN 10-6
Seton Hall 10-8
SJU 9-9
Xavier 6-6
Gtown 7-8
PC 8-10
Butler 8-11
Marquette 7-11
Depaul 2-13

Game remaining and favored result:
Gtown @ UCONN (UCONN W)
Nova @ PC (Nova W)
Butler @ Creighton (Creighton W)
Seton Hall @ SJU (Seton Hall W)
Xavier @ Marquette (Marquette W)

Expected standings:
Nova 12-3
Creighton 14-6
UCONN 11-6
Seton Hall 11-8
SJU 9-10 (.471)
Xavier 6-7 (.461)
Gtown 7-9 (.4375)
PC 8-11 (.421)
Marquette 8-11 (.421)
Butler 8-12
Depaul 2-13

In that scenario (which includes all favored teams winning), how are X, Gtown, PC and Marquette seeded? I assume its by winning %, and if that is the case, we tie for the 8 seed with PC, lose the tiebreaker, and play them in the 8/9 game. 

If we lose to X, we'll get the 10 seed and likely draw SJU at the Garden.

None of those scenarios are great IMO, but I guess it doesn't really matter.  Going to have to win some tough games obviously.

I don’t think MU would play SJU in the first round if UConn and Creighton both win and MU loses to Xavier. I think they would play either Georgetown or Providence, depending on the outcome of the Providence-Villanova game. Even if St. John’s and Providence tie at 9-11. SJU would win the tiebreaker because of two wins over PC and take the 6 seed.

[wisblue]

Actually I think someone calculated it at 2.xx% (can't remember the decimal)

That might be about right.

I’m more interested in the possibility of at least having some fun with the tournament by winning one game, and then maybe 2, before reality rears its  ugly head.

[Lennys Tap]

The return games stat, especially in the last three years, is the most damning stat on Wojo's resume.

Yeah, we’re the Monday morning crossword puzzle - easy to figure out. Other teams (for Wojo, anyway) are like the New York Times Sunday puzzle.

[Galway Eagle]

That might be about right.

I’m more interested in the possibility of at least having some fun with the tournament by winning one game, and then maybe 2, before reality rears its  ugly head.

Yeah I mean I genuinely don't care how we do at this point but would rather have a couple last games than not

[Lennys Tap]

It would be great if we could maintain the 10 position.

This says it all. We’re in an 11 team league that is historically weak this year - and it would be great if we can stay in 10th place.

[GooooMarquette]

The problem isn't the world beaters, it's the rest of the league that is 6-2 against us in return games this year. The only teams we beat the second time around were 9th place Butler & 11th place DePaul.

Maybe we pick off a no-Gillespie Nova or coachless Creighton, but I have no confidence against UConn, SHU, Providence, etc.

So maybe that puts a chip on our shoulders and makes us the underdog...like we were against the rodents and 'heels.

Don't get me wrong - I am not expecting a 4-game run. I just think it's at least plausible, given the Gillespie and McDermott issues.

[wadesworld]

This says it all. We’re in an 11 team league that is historically weak this year - and it would be great if we can stay in 10th place.

Well considering we could not possibly fall to 11, I'm thinking Herman is wanting to stay at 10 rather than move up in the standings.

Also, historically weak?  The Big East isn't even the worst high major conference in the current season.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You are correct that the only way for MU to get the 9 seed is to beat Xavier and have Butler lose to Creighton.

I have seen a summary of the 32 possible outcomes of the 5 games on Saturday and, although MU can only get either the 9 or 10 seed, their possible first round opponents include Georgetown and Providence (the most likely candidates) plus Xavier, Butler, and St. John’s. Those three only come in to play if there are surprises like Butler over Creighton and/or Georgetown over UConn.

Can you please share the link that shows these scenarios? 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The problem isn't the world beaters, it's the rest of the league that is 6-2 against us in return games this year. The only teams we beat the second time around were 9th place Butler & 11th place DePaul.

Maybe we pick off a no-Gillespie Nova or coachless Creighton, but I have no confidence against UConn, SHU, Providence, etc.

While I think we can beat PC, they would be horrible 1st round draw.  Really hope we avoid that or I think its a quick exit.  Realistically, i'd be absolutely astonished if we pulled 2 wins in the BET.  But I'll be rooting like hell!

[Hards Alumni]

Well considering we could not possibly fall to 11, I'm thinking Herman is wanting to stay at 10 rather than move up in the standings.

Also, historically weak?  The Big East isn't even the worst high major conference in the current season.

We're better than what... the PAC12?  Nothing to be proud of... also, we're behind the WCC (which I full admit is being dragged upwards by Gonzaga).

The BEAST is super down this year, no two ways about it.  If we field 3 teams in the NCAA tournament, yes, it will be historically bad in this iteration of the Big East.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This says it all. We’re in an 11 team league that is historically weak this year - and it would be great if we can stay in 10th place.

Eh, personally I don't care about conference standings in a normal year. I really don't care in a year where the teams are playing unbalanced schedules. We didn't get to play Georgetown at home, the 2nd or 3rd easiest game on the schedule (though fully admit that easy games aren't necessarily a layup for us). Three of the four teams directly ahead of us in the standings will finish the season with less conference games played than we did, including X who completely avoided Villanova. Add in the fact that when all is said and done, we will likely finish 1 game back of 5th place, I don't think the conference standings really tell you a complete picture.

What I do care about is that we will finish nowhere near the bubble in a year that we should have been able to earn an at large bid given the roster assembled.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We're better than what... the PAC12?  Nothing to be proud of... also, we're behind the WCC (which I full admit is being dragged upwards by Gonzaga).

The BEAST is super down this year, no two ways about it.  If we field 3 teams in the NCAA tournament, yes, it will be historically bad in this iteration of the Big East.

There is a 0% chance the Big East gets 3 bids.  Zero. 

edit: Maybe, I will soften that a bit.  But at least 1 of Seton Hall or Xavier are going to get in.  And I think both is more likely than neither.  Though if we beat X tomorrow, they're really reeling.  Big game for them. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We're better than what... the PAC12?  Nothing to be proud of... also, we're behind the WCC (which I full admit is being dragged upwards by Gonzaga).

What metric has the WCC above the Big East? KenPom has the following rankings for the conferences:

1. Big Ten
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. ACC
5. Big East
6. PAC 12
7. AAC
8. A10
9. WCC

And the distance between the Big East at #5 and the PAC 12 at #6 is greater than the distance between the SEC at #3 and Big East at #5. And the distance between the PAC 12 at #6 and the AAC at #7 is even greater than that.

[Hards Alumni]

What metric has the WCC above the Big East? KenPom has the following rankings for the conferences:

1. Big Ten
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. ACC
5. Big East
6. PAC 12
7. AAC
8. A10
9. WCC

And the distance between the Big East at #5 and the PAC 12 at #6 is greater than the distance between the SEC at #3 and Big East at #5. And the distance between the PAC 12 at #6 and the AAC at #7 is even greater than that.

Conference RPI

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/rpi-ranking/rpi-rating-by-conf

http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2021/conferencerpi

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Conference RPI

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/rpi-ranking/rpi-rating-by-conf

http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2021/conferencerpi

Just asking, why are you using a metric that was retried years ago because of how inaccurate it was?