Vaccine/Antibody updates

[JWags85]

It's basically on the honor system.

Yep. I know a number of people in the Tri State as well as CA who don't fall into the age or employment categories who have gotten vaccines. A few took advantage of the honor system, but others just got them cause of flaws in the system that they just shrugged and accepted

[Dish]

The article mentioned it, and I "get" fear sells and gets more clicks, but the vaccine work is a modern day miracle. I don't think people appreciate how quickly and how decisively strong these vaccines are against Covid-19.

If these vaccines hadn't arrived until late 2021, I can't imagine how miserable I'd be. Without supply chain issues, anyone who wants a vaccine should be able to almost have both doses by Memorial Day. That's eff'n amazing.

[GooooMarquette]

The article mentioned it, and I "get" fear sells and gets more clicks, but the vaccine work is a modern day miracle. I don't think people appreciate how quickly and how decisively strong these vaccines are against Covid-19.

If these vaccines hadn't arrived until late 2021, I can't imagine how miserable I'd be. Without supply chain issues, anyone who wants a vaccine should be able to almost have both doses by Memorial Day. That's eff'n amazing.

Amazing indeed.

I'm near the end of the line, and a few months ago thought I'd be lucky to get vaccinated by next fall or winter. And even that would have been amazing when you consider that it usually takes several years to produce new vaccines. Then when Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines got approved in quick succession, I thought I'd move up to June or July. Now with increased production plus J&J on the way, I am expecting my first dose by April or May. Wow!

[injuryBug]

My wife and I just scheduled our 1st shots for tomorrow. 

[GooooMarquette]

I can't find a written story, but I just heard on the NBC news that CDC is actively studying whether people who previously had Covid only need a single dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

If this strategy is ultimately approved, it would accelerate the rollout even further.

[The Sultan]

The article mentioned it, and I "get" fear sells and gets more clicks, but the vaccine work is a modern day miracle. I don't think people appreciate how quickly and how decisively strong these vaccines are against Covid-19.

If these vaccines hadn't arrived until late 2021, I can't imagine how miserable I'd be. Without supply chain issues, anyone who wants a vaccine should be able to almost have both doses by Memorial Day. That's eff'n amazing.

Right. Growing weary of the "but is a third way coming?" ...when there is no real indication one is actually coming.

[GooooMarquette]

Right. Growing weary of the "but is a third way coming?" ...when there is no real indication one is actually coming.

Total cases in the US have plateaued in the past few days at levels that are still higher than the summer surge. With more contagious variants  spreading and states rolling back restrictions, another increase is a real possibility.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/cdc-director-really-worried-about-states-rolling-back-covid-measures-as-cases-appear-to-plateau-.html

The declines in Covid-19 cases seen since early January now appear to be stalling at around 70,000 new cases per day, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House news briefing. "With these statistics, I am really worried about more states rolling back the exact public health measures we have recommended to protect people from Covid-19."

———————

We need to stay vigilant.

[Dish]

Right. Growing weary of the "but is a third way coming?" ...when there is no real indication one is actually coming.

Maybe it's because spring is almost here, but I personally feel like there is a beaming light at the end of the tunnel and we are so close to getting there. I don't expect things to immediately get back to normal over night, but people should be borderline jubilant at how close we are getting.

[The Sultan]

Total cases in the US have plateaued in the past few days at levels that are still higher than the summer surge. With more contagious variants  spreading and states rolling back restrictions, another increase is a real possibility.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/cdc-director-really-worried-about-states-rolling-back-covid-measures-as-cases-appear-to-plateau-.html

The declines in Covid-19 cases seen since early January now appear to be stalling at around 70,000 new cases per day, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House news briefing. "With these statistics, I am really worried about more states rolling back the exact public health measures we have recommended to protect people from Covid-19."

———————

We need to stay vigilant.

I know all that.

Just tired of a teaspoon of fantastic news being followed by a gallon of pessimism.

And a lot of the increase makes sense. Schools and colleges are back (although we are seeing minuscule numbers compared to last semester).  The real question is will hospitalizations and deaths follow at the same rate?

[GooooMarquette]

I know all that.

Just tired of a teaspoon of fantastic news being followed by a gallon of pessimism.

And a lot of the increase makes sense. Schools and colleges are back (although we are seeing minuscule numbers compared to last semester).  The real question is will hospitalizations and deaths follow at the same rate?

Deaths and hospitalizations likely won't rise at the previous rate because most of the highest risk people have been vaccinated. The bigger concern this time - other than people getting really sick - is that continued spread will leads to more different strains emerging. If enough spread continues, we could see vaccine-resistant strains.

You might call this pessimism, but it is simple virology. Reality.

If you want optimism, try this. If we continue with masks and social distancing for a few more months and get most people vaccinated, we might get out of this without a vaccine-resistant strain emerging. There's your optimism.

[JWags85]

If you want optimism, try this. If we continue with masks and social distancing for a few more months and get most people vaccinated, we might get out of this without a vaccine-resistant strain emerging. There's your optimism.

This won't make sense to you because your caution and patience is well established but that's not optimism at all. That's more of what we've been hearing for quite some time. "Just hold the line and mask up/lockdown/social distance for x amount of time and we'll get through this".  That may be the best advice and guidance, but more of that guidance, even with vaccine progress, isn't going to be some optimistic burst that gets people's spirits up.

[GooooMarquette]

This won't make sense to you because your caution and patience is well established but that's not optimism at all. That's more of what we've been hearing for quite some time. "Just hold the line and mask up/lockdown/social distance for x amount of time and we'll get through this".  That may be the best advice and guidance, but more of that guidance, even with vaccine progress, isn't going to be some optimistic burst that gets people's spirits up.

I get what you're saying, but I think a realistic prediction is better than an overly optimistic prediction which we then don't achieve.

[forgetful]

I keep seeing people post about getting vaccinated and I *know* they are not eligible yet. 

Are the vaccinators checking at all?

Am I a sucker for not hunting for a shot and jumping the line?

Asking for a friend.

A lot of it depends on the state. Some have very vague definitions of phase 1b, where almost anyone will fit one of the categories. Others, also give a lot of leeway to providers (e.g. hospitals/major institutions in determining who qualifies). Some examples:

1. A professor is considered essential emergency personnel due to requirements that they are always on call in case of a fire/emergency in a lab with biosafety precautions. The university views them as a first responder, as they have to be on the scene immediately in the case of building emergency. The university can vaccinate them from their own pool of doses.

2. A professor does regular research in a medical building that also sees patients. Even thought they don't directly treat patients, some states give the university freedom to deem them "patient contact" personnel as they will encounter patients on a regular basis as a part of work functions.

3. An individual was treated previously for peripheral issues that may be a risk category: e.g. previous lung injury, previous blood clots, asthma. If it is in their records of patient treatment, some hospitals/clinics that are vaccine providers, reach out to these patients to give their patients with a documented issue on file priority, even if some of these issues may have resolved.

In all three of these, many peers of the people, may say they "know" their friend is not eligible yet, but by state guidelines they actually qualify.

Then there are the states where being a previous smoker, or simply overweight (who isn't by the BMI these days) are grounds for inclusion.

Bottom line, is in some states the systems are very vague and give a lot of deference to the providers on who gets included, leading to some thinking that people got vaccinated that shouldn't, but were within the guidelines of the state.

[The Sultan]

I get what you're saying, but I think a realistic prediction is better than an overly optimistic prediction which we then don't achieve.

I never said anything about overly optimistic predictions.  I actually am not talking about Scoop discussion at all.

I am talking about the overall messaging around Covid and the vaccination campaign.  We are selling it wrong.  We need to be doing everything we can to sell people on this, and the way you do that is through hope and optimism.  Not through "yeah you better get your shot before more variants pop up and oh yeah plan on wearing masks through 2021."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I can't find a written story, but I just heard on the NBC news that CDC is actively studying whether people who previously had Covid only need a single dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

If this strategy is ultimately approved, it would accelerate the rollout even further.

Don't we already know the answer more or less? If the first shot of Moderna or Pfizer gets you to ~92% protection, that is already significantly better than the single shot of J&J.

Does Moderna/Pfizer also protect against serious illness and hospitalization with similar efficacy to J&J? We should already have that data between trials and now all the people receiving first doses, and if they do afford similar protection is seems the obvious answer is to get everyone single dosed first, and then treat the second dose as a booster shot.

[The Sultan]

I never said anything about overly optimistic predictions.  I actually am not talking about Scoop discussion at all.

I am talking about the overall messaging around Covid and the vaccination campaign.  We are selling it wrong.  We need to be doing everything we can to sell people on this, and the way you do that is through hope and optimism.  Not through "yeah you better get your shot before more variants pop up and oh yeah plan on wearing masks through 2021."

One other thing.  We have about two and a half months left of us having the political and social will to mitigate like we have for the last year.  If we are lucky.  Therefore we need to do all we can to drive people to get vaccinated because I think that is going to be more of a demand issue than a supply one in about six weeks. 

Do you honestly think that Evers for instance will have the political will to extend a mask mandate into the summer?  Doubtful.  It will soon become an albatross.  We are already having questions from parents and students about what next year will look like.  They have no desire to go through another year like this one, and we are thinking very carefully about what precautions we are going to keep.

Unless something changes drastically for the worse, people are going to be done.  Restaurants and bars will open to near capacity.  Schools will be likely fully in-person.  Family events will be taking place.  Let's make sure people are protected first and foremost.

[Galway Eagle]

I never said anything about overly optimistic predictions.  I actually am not talking about Scoop discussion at all.

I am talking about the overall messaging around Covid and the vaccination campaign.  We are selling it wrong.  We need to be doing everything we can to sell people on this, and the way you do that is through hope and optimism.  Not through "yeah you better get your shot before more variants pop up and oh yeah plan on wearing masks through 2021."

Good point. Make some localized commercials of people enjoying punts in a pub, at a festival, hugging family members at the holidays, etc and go for emotional appeal to return to life as it could be.

[pacearrow02]

One other thing.  We have about two and a half months left of us having the political and social will to mitigate like we have for the last year.  If we are lucky.  Therefore we need to do all we can to drive people to get vaccinated because I think that is going to be more of a demand issue than a supply one in about six weeks. 

Do you honestly think that Evers for instance will have the political will to extend a mask mandate into the summer?  Doubtful.  It will soon become an albatross.  We are already having questions from parents and students about what next year will look like.  They have no desire to go through another year like this one, and we are thinking very carefully about what precautions we are going to keep.

Unless something changes drastically for the worse, people are going to be done.  Restaurants and bars will open to near capacity.  Schools will be likely fully in-person.  Family events will be taking place.  Let's make sure people are protected first and foremost.

💯!!!!  MU announced yesterday fall semester willlargely be normal with vast majority of classes being held in person.  Alabama is lifting attendance restrictions for football games and plan to pack 80,000 in every Saturday, etc etc.  I think you're spot on with your timeline, we have 60 days to get as many people vaccinated before the flood gates open with a return to normalcy, thank god.

And with savings accounts at historical highs get ready for an economic boom, we're back!!!!

[cheebs09]

I was listening to a WSJ podcast, and it sounds like the only reason J&J is one dose is that is how they ran their clinical trials. They didn't test on the impact of two doses.

If they go back and do that, their efficacy numbers would likely increase. They also said, don't pass up the J&J vaccine to wait for one of the others. It's still a very effective drug. Plus, we don't really have the luxury of choosing our brand.

[forgetful]

I was listening to a WSJ podcast, and it sounds like the only reason J&J is one dose is that is how they ran their clinical trials. They didn't test on the impact of two doses.

If they go back and do that, their efficacy numbers would likely increase. They also said, don't pass up the J&J vaccine to wait for one of the others. It's still a very effective drug. Plus, we don't really have the luxury of choosing our brand.

I'll also add that I bet you see J&J add in a booster based off the South African strain. That will give them their equivalent "2 dose" regime and likely boost their overall efficacy to match those of Pfizer and Moderna.

Had Pfizer and Moderna went with a 1-dose trial, they would have been approved as such.

[MU82]

Under a White House-brokered deal, Merck will help boost supplies of its rival Johnson & Johnson's vaccine.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03/02/world/covid-19-coronavirus?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20210302&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=52619&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa#under-a-white-house-brokered-deal-merck-will-help-boost-supplies-of-its-rival-johnson-johnsons-vaccine

The pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co will help manufacture the new Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine under a highly unusual deal, brokered by the White House. The move could substantially increase the supply of the new vaccine and ramp up the pace of vaccination just as worrisome new variants of the virus are taking hold in the United States.

President Biden is expected to announce the arrangement, first reported by The Washington Post, on Tuesday, according to two senior administration officials, who confirmed the arrangement on condition of anonymity to discuss a matter that has not yet been made public. It comes just days after the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency authorization to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Merck is an experienced vaccine manufacturer whose own attempt at making a coronavirus vaccine was unsuccessful. Officials described the partnership between the two competitors as "historic," and said it harkens back to Mr. Biden's vision of a wartime effort to fight the coronavirus, similar to the manufacturing campaigns waged during World War II.

According to one official involved, the administration has been scouring the manufacturing landscape for weeks, ever since it became evident that Johnson & Johnson's was running behind on its manufacturing. But just how quickly Merck will be able to ramp up is unclear. It will take months for the company to be able to convert its facilities to manufacture and package a vaccine that it did not invent.

Under the agreement, Merck will dedicate two of its facilities to production of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which unlike the other two vaccines that have emergency approval in the U.S. requires only one shot.

[GooooMarquette]

I never said anything about overly optimistic predictions.  I actually am not talking about Scoop discussion at all.

I am talking about the overall messaging around Covid and the vaccination campaign.  We are selling it wrong.  We need to be doing everything we can to sell people on this, and the way you do that is through hope and optimism.  Not through "yeah you better get your shot before more variants pop up and oh yeah plan on wearing masks through 2021."

The clarification helps.

You're talking public messaging and what the general public will probably accept. I'm talking science and what we should do to best mitigate the threat. Very different targets, and you're right: the general public likely would see my realistic message as pessimistic.

Things would probably have been different if the first message back in early 2020 was 'this is going to be a difficult fight, and we are going to have to make real sacrifices.' Instead, the messaging started with 'just the flu,' and public health officials have been fighting an uphill battle ever since.

[GooooMarquette]

I'll also add that I bet you see J&J add in a booster based off the South African strain. That will give them their equivalent "2 dose" regime and likely boost their overall efficacy to match those of Pfizer and Moderna.

Had Pfizer and Moderna went with a 1-dose trial, they would have been approved as such.

I think you're right on both. I also think there's a good chance that FDA and CDC will recommend going down to 1 dose on Pfizer and Moderna for people who had Covid earlier.

[GooooMarquette]

Under a White House-brokered deal, Merck will help boost supplies of its rival Johnson & Johnson's vaccine.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03/02/world/covid-19-coronavirus?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20210302&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=52619&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa#under-a-white-house-brokered-deal-merck-will-help-boost-supplies-of-its-rival-johnson-johnsons-vaccine

The pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co will help manufacture the new Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine under a highly unusual deal, brokered by the White House. The move could substantially increase the supply of the new vaccine and ramp up the pace of vaccination just as worrisome new variants of the virus are taking hold in the United States.

President Biden is expected to announce the arrangement, first reported by The Washington Post, on Tuesday, according to two senior administration officials, who confirmed the arrangement on condition of anonymity to discuss a matter that has not yet been made public. It comes just days after the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency authorization to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Merck is an experienced vaccine manufacturer whose own attempt at making a coronavirus vaccine was unsuccessful. Officials described the partnership between the two competitors as "historic," and said it harkens back to Mr. Biden's vision of a wartime effort to fight the coronavirus, similar to the manufacturing campaigns waged during World War II.

According to one official involved, the administration has been scouring the manufacturing landscape for weeks, ever since it became evident that Johnson & Johnson's was running behind on its manufacturing. But just how quickly Merck will be able to ramp up is unclear. It will take months for the company to be able to convert its facilities to manufacture and package a vaccine that it did not invent.

Under the agreement, Merck will dedicate two of its facilities to production of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which unlike the other two vaccines that have emergency approval in the U.S. requires only one shot.

This is another piece of positive news.

Given the underlined part about the delay in Merck production, I suspect the impact in the US will be limited to vaccinating children once the vaccine is approved for them. The bigger impact - and this is HUGE - will be a faster rollout to developing countries to tamp down the worldwide spread.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The clarification helps.

You're talking public messaging and what the general public will probably accept. I'm talking science and what we should do to best mitigate the threat. Very different targets, and you're right: the general public likely would see my realistic message as pessimistic.

Things would probably have been different if the first message back in early 2020 was 'this is going to be a difficult fight, and we are going to have to make real sacrifices.' Instead, the messaging started with 'just the flu,' and public health officials have been fighting an uphill battle ever since.

The initial message was also 2 weeks to flatten the curve.   

People chose to remember what they want.  For a lot of people, Fauci's credibility was shot then.