Investing Thread

[SoCalEagle]

Stock market down approximately 6% from the all time high it achieved just weeks ago. 

... yawn ...

if such small moves freak you out, you shouldn't invest in stocks. 

[MU82]

Stock market down approximately 6% from the all time high it achieved just weeks ago. 

... yawn ...

if such small moves freak you out, you shouldn't invest in stocks.

Well said.

[Goose]

Eagle

I agree. If anyone is freaked out they probably should not be in the market.

[MU82]

This just in:

The stock market goes up, the stock market goes down; over time, the only direction the market ever has gone is up. Film at 11.

[rocket surgeon]

  the fed's gotta do something as the blood letting continues

it is creating some great buying opportunities however,  just not in the mood to catch falling knives...yet

[Goose]

Mr. Market will be fine. Maybe just added pressure for the Fed to prematurely lower rates. Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out over the upcoming weeks.

[MuggsyB]

  the fed's gotta do something as the blood letting continues

it is creating some great buying opportunities however,  just not in the mood to catch falling knives...yet

Uh-oh.  These are tumultuous times 🚀.  It will pass but the world is a bit of a powder keg right now. 

[rocket surgeon]

Mr. Market will be fine. Maybe just added pressure for the Fed to prematurely lower rates. Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out over the upcoming weeks.

  the market isn't for those who are weak knee'd...as I said, this is creating a great buying opportunity.  million $$ question...when to buy?  don't think you can go wrong getting in to nvda, avgo and some of the other major chip companies and other AI related companies, Salesforce(crm).  may I also add, local company generac(gnrc) especially with the hurricanes upon us.  PG-always a need for consumer staples etc

[Hards Alumni]

  the fed's gotta do something as the blood letting continues

it is creating some great buying opportunities however,  just not in the mood to catch falling knives...yet

Correct.

[Hards Alumni]

Hold on to your butts today, everyone.

[MU82]

Hold on to your butts today, everyone.

Gonna be crazy. But looking at pre-market stuff, it's mostly the big tech names that are getting swamped. My 2 biggest holdings (MSFT and AAPL) are among those, but several in my next-largest group - including PEP, MCD, JNJ, AMGN, PM, WEC, NEE and RTX - are either up or down only slightly.

Yet another lesson in "diversify the portfolio, people."

[Goose]

82

Do you think this pullback is economy driven or fears of further escalation in Israel? Based on your comments in the past, I do not think it could be economy driven. Thoughts?

[GOO]

Yep, I will be putting some cash in this week, some today. I look at down turns as opportunity as long as I'm not someone taking money out. I wish I could say I always had this attitude, but it took a while to truly develope and follow the right mindset.

For younger investors these  down turns make the market safer for the long term. Keep putting money in. Don't try to catch the bottom. Will it go down more, probably, but don't get greedy and just put what you can to work for you.  Safer now to invest longer term than it was a few days ago.

[MuggsyB]

Gonna be crazy. But looking at pre-market stuff, it's mostly the big tech names that are getting swamped. My 2 biggest holdings (MSFT and AAPL) are among those, but several in my next-largest group - including PEP, MCD, JNJ, AMGN, PM, WEC, NEE and RTX - are either up or down only slightly.

Yet another lesson in "diversify the portfolio, people."

This might be a day not to look at the markets  and my AAPL. 

[GOO]

82

Do you think this pullback is economy driven or fears of further escalation in Israel? Based on your comments in the past, I do not think it could be economy driven. Thoughts?

The fed is proving historically correct and being behind the curve. But we could see a 5 handle on the 30 year sooner than expected.  But the fed is also getting exactly what it wanted, to break the employment cycle, so that is a good thing and if the August employment numbers are lower the cuts start with confidence.

But probably an over reaction to the jobs number. If the fed was meeting iand lowering this month it would calm people down with a cut. This should not be so unexpected, and should be welcomed, as getting unemployment up has always been the plan. But I guess it is unexpected. Once again when market people say everything is priced into the market, it isn't, as this should not be a shock.  The fed has been clear in my mind. More concerned about breaking inflation and to do so employment must break. But employment is still great, so maybe get back to a more neutral employment market which is what they want.

I don't think the fed is upset the markets are down. Rates, many think, is more about psychologically getting people mentally to change than what it does in reality.

I know one thing. The market is likely to be higher in 5 years.

[GOO]

This might be a day not to look at the markets  and my AAPL. 

If you happen to have any extra cash, it could be a good time to buy longer-term. Otherwise, yes, don't look at the market.

I didn't buy Apple and bought Berkshire instead as an apple play. Work out, but maybe it will now with their sale. so I may take this opportunity if it goes low enough to actually buy some directly

[Hards Alumni]

The fed is proving historically correct and being behind the curve. But we could see a 5 handle on the 30 year sooner than expected.  But the fed is also getting exactly what it wanted, to break the employment cycle, so that is a good thing and if the August employment numbers are lower the cuts start with confidence.

But probably an over reaction to the jobs number. If the fed was meeting iand lowering this month it would calm people down with a cut. This should not be so unexpected, and should be welcomed, as getting unemployment up has always been the plan. But I guess it is unexpected. Once again when market people say everything is priced into the market, it isn't, as this should not be a shock.  The fed has been clear in my mind. More concerned about breaking inflation and to do so employment must break. But employment is still great, so maybe get back to a more neutral employment market which is what they want.

I don't think the fed is upset the markets are down. Rates, many think, is more about psychologically getting people mentally to change than what it does in reality.

I know one thing. The market is likely to be higher in 5 years.

Great bolded thought.  The lag time between when that the average American first hears something about the economy, and when they acknowledge it seems to be 6 months to a year.

[MuggsyB]

If you happen to have any extra cash, it could be a good time to buy longer-term. Otherwise, yes, don't look at the market.

I didn't buy Apple and bought Berkshire instead as an apple play. Work out, but maybe it will now with their sale. so I may take this opportunity if it goes low enough to actually buy some directly

I was kind of thinking that.  But I was also thinking about what I would be doing geopolitically if I was in charge.

[The Sultan]

I know there are some unique circumstances for why the market is down, but isn't August a bad moth for stocks overall due to trading volumes usually being lower? Pretty much all of Europe is on vacation right now.

[MuggsyB]

I know there are some unique circumstances for why the market is down, but isn't August a bad moth for stocks overall due to trading volumes usually being lower? Pretty much all of Europe is on vacation right now.

August does seem to always suck for the market. 

[MU82]

August is typically one of the worst months for stocks. According to YCharts, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of only 0.1% over the past 10 Augusts.

In addition to traditionally lower volumes, which Sultan mentioned, August is a common month for institutional and other large investors to book profits ahead of September - which is historically the worst month for the market.

[GOO]

This is pretty much a non event to me. Not changing anything. No buying selling or allocations. Keeping my extra cash as cash.

Maybe it will get worse and be an abcious buy at some point today or coming months for us long term people. The close can be interesting if the big guys dump at the close. Otherwise, meh.

I'm not even buying Apple. I thought things would spiral down.  Not at a price point where I must take advantage.

[MU82]

This is pretty much a non event to me. Not changing anything. No buying selling or allocations. Keeping my extra cash as cash.

Maybe it will get worse and be an abcious buy at some point today or coming months for us long term people. The close can be interesting if the big guys dump at the close. Otherwise, meh.

I'm not even buying Apple. I thought things would spiral down.  Not at a price point where I must take advantage.

Ditto.

After AAPL went down as much as 10.9% shortly after market open, it's now down 5% and climbing.

For traders, today is an event. For long-term investors, it's a blip.

[GOO]

At 10% I probably would have just went ahead. When I looked it was down 4% something. A price north of 200 doesn't make me feel compelled to change my normal behavior.

[Goose]

82

While I do not disagree this is likely a blip, but if that is the case why wouldn't Buffett hang on to his holdings? He definitely did not to generate extra cash at this time. The gold standard for long term investing has made some big moves and I think that needs to be watched closely.

IMO, at the moment a big part of the sell off is the big boys trying to spook the Fed into an emergency rate cut. That said, I very much do take stock in what Buffett does and curious to see what happens in the upcoming weeks.