Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

Should Keith Gill be in legal trouble for market manipulation?

No, I don't think so. All that DFV did is disclose his GME positions which is not a crime. In fact I think you're legally required to disclose your position when you acquire >5% of a business. DFV also posted some memes, which is not a crime, unless it's considered to be misleading people. I don't think he's giving misleading investing advice.

I'd have a hard time investing in GME because their business sucks (and I'm a pretty avid videogamer, I don't know why anyone would shop with them). But just because the business sucks doesn't mean it's illegal to buy calls or invest in a company that you think is shorted to the hilt.

I'm not an expert in SEC stuff, though I generally like Gary Gensler's approach. I think we should fund the crap out of that guy and he'd clean up the markets a bit. A year or three ago GG went in front of congress and said something like there is nothing against the law for a person to tell their neighbor, "I like the stock" and disclose their position. I don't see what's changed this time around?

[MUBurrow]

Should Keith Gill be in legal trouble for market manipulation?

Nah he rules.

[cheebs09]

Should Keith Gill be in legal trouble for market manipulation?

For what? He just loves the stock.

[jficke13]

No, I don't think so. All that DFV did is disclose his GME positions which is not a crime. In fact I think you're legally required to disclose your position when you acquire >5% of a business. DFV also posted some memes, which is not a crime, unless it's considered to be misleading people. I don't think he's giving misleading investing advice.

I'd have a hard time investing in GME because their business sucks (and I'm a pretty avid videogamer, I don't know why anyone would shop with them). But just because the business sucks doesn't mean it's illegal to buy calls or invest in a company that you think is shorted to the hilt.

I'm not an expert in SEC stuff, though I generally like Gary Gensler's approach. I think we should fund the crap out of that guy and he'd clean up the markets a bit. A year or three ago GG went in front of congress and said something like there is nothing against the law for a person to tell their neighbor, "I like the stock" and disclose their position. I don't see what's changed this time around?

Yep this is absolutely a "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" situation. GME (like several companies, Uber for example) does not have any practically viable path to profitability. Unlike Uber, which can I guess say it's burning investor money for revenue growth (though it's utterly incapable of ever converting growth to profit absent several longshot miracles coming through for them), GME can't even claim growth. GME's terminal diagnosis came when Valve released Steam, and the last rites were due when every other major publisher released a digital distribution platform. They cannot, and will not, ever return to a viable going concern.

But, none of that matters in the short term.

[rocket surgeon]

looking at dividend stocks EGBN(10.43%)  REFI(11.99%)  EPM (9%)  VZ(6.43%)

liquid MM with no real commitment

[Skatastrophy]

looking at dividend stocks EGBN(10.43%)  REFI(11.99%)  EPM (9%)  VZ(6.43%)

liquid MM with no real commitment

Do you use Morningstar or Value Line or something to filter down what you're looking for?

Note: I think that's what I've used the public library system for the most in the past 10+ years. Usually you can get an online library card and your local library will have a subscription to one or the other for free. Really valuable insights into companies from industry analysts. Attached an example for VZ (pdf warning)

[Skatastrophy]

New jobs is up, which means rates are less likely to be cut, which means the market is.... up?

This is why I don't day trade.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

New jobs is up, which means rates are less likely to be cut, which means the market is.... up?

This is why I don't day trade.

Yeah, a week ago or less it was "the slowdown is here", and this data is the opposite of that. Guessing that the good wage growth is spurring the rally. But, yeah, short term guessing about the direction is futile.

[MU82]

I'm not seeing much movement in the market at all today. As I write this, S&P is up .03% and Nasdaq is down .2%.

[MU82]

New all-time high for AAPL.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Another new high, though off the intraday highs.

Seems like some moderation this afternoon, broadly across the market, after the morning's irrational exuberance.

[Shaka Shart]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/elon-musk-sued-by-former-spacex-employees-for-sexual-harassment

[TSmith34, Inc.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/elon-musk-sued-by-former-spacex-employees-for-sexual-harassment

And he was pressuring females at SpaceX to have children by him. As any normal CEO does.

[MuggsyB]

New all-time high for AAPL.

[SoCalEagle]

Is that the same AAPL that one scoop pundit was writing off for dead a few years back?  Something like AAPL hasn't released any new products in years and the iPhone is basically in a replacement cycle.  He even posted that AAPL had a fair value of $12.50 to $17.50.  That same stock hit $220.00 today.  Isn't he a money manager or something?  Maybe he will stop by to say hello and let us know how wrong he was. 

[Skatastrophy]

Is that the same AAPL that one scoop pundit was writing off for dead a few years back?  Something like AAPL hasn't released any new products in years and the iPhone is basically in a replacement cycle.  He even posted that AAPL had a fair value of $12.50 to $17.50.  That same stock hit $220.00 today.  Isn't he a money manager or something?  Maybe he will stop by to say hello and let us know how wrong he was. 

Apples YoY quarterly growth has been negative 5 of the last 6 quarters.

Their new product releases in the last two years have been macbook, ipad, and iphone revisions. And a vr/ar headset.

They're not exactly killing it as a business. They haven't been innovating much at all.

[MU82]

Apple sells a bazillion iPhones, and it is killing it as a services company.

But yes, their financials have mostly stagnated the last couple of years.

And AAPL stock wasn't doomed 8-10 years ago, as Douchey famously claimed.

All that can be true.

Glad to be long AAPL all this time, my second-largest position (behind MSFT).

I would like to see more innovation, and I'm hopeful about proprietary chips as well as AI.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

It's hard to see what their next killer (hardware) product is going to be.

I don't think headsets will be more than a niche product unless they can port the technology into glasses. They pulled the plug on the Apple car. Services have a lot of growth potential remaining, but the Apple Store will remain under regulatory scrutiny as a duopoly.

There was a good deal of optimism coming out of the developer conference that they can once again pull off their second mover trick of letting others burn billions upon billions developing a new technology and then they move in a create a use case that consumers actually want. That could actually restart iphone sales growth.

I'm glad Tim Cook is leading the company and not an emotional, nazi-magnifying 12-year-old.

[Hards Alumni]

Apple used to be about innovation and user experience.  I loved their products growing up as a child.  Now I just see them as a smart phone company that dabbles in entertainment.

[GOO]

I think you'll see the following:

A two year "super cycle" in phones. "AI" phones. Me and my son have waited to upgrade since winter expecting that we'd need a new devices for AI. As it turns out could have bought a 15. I'm on a 10 he's on an 12. I would have replaced the battery in my 10 and kept it longer. This fall is upgrade time.

AI phones and power and memory needs increasing quickly will mean someone like me will need to upgrade every couple of years for the rest of this decade. No more keeping phones for 5+ years for a while if you want the new AI features. More and more will be forced onto the phone requiring new chips often. I didn't care about the improvements. But this stuff is awesome and I'll want to upgrade often. Times that by 100 million others or something like that.

That alone powers this company for this decade.  And more and more locked into services and maybe new service categories around AI.

I think their AR device will be big, not now, it will be. A slow build that will change things by the end of the decade. Maybe two years for an affordable version; 3 to 5 for an every day device priced like an iPhone. It will be how we watch sports and TV and concerts and yes a 3D social media world that might actually still happen.
It will be in companies with skilled labor, manufacturing on the line etc. less training needed to do a job; reboots won't be doing it all. This will be a big category.  The eco system will develop around it. They are not in a rush.

Home robot for elderly. They are working on something in the robot category not sure what but I think for elderly disabled. Not something that does the laundry. More for safety, companionship, communication, entertainment, health monitoring, all in one device. Helping keep people at home longer with memory issues, health issues, fewer hospital or dr trips etc.  What is out there now all has holes in what they can do. I've researched it for a parent and they all just miss. Apple might get this right. Will it be a product. We shall see.

Cars. Won't build their own but look for their tech to get more and more integrated. The vison and decision making they developed can be used in robots above and others cars.  Might buy into something like Rivian.

Who knows what else they are working on. Most of which gets scrapped. Big tech companies have staved off competition, buy up small competitors,  and will likely continue to do so.

[jficke13]

I think you'll see the following:

A two year "super cycle" in phones. "AI" phones. Me and my son have waited to upgrade since winter expecting that we'd need a new devices for AI. As it turns out could have bought a 15. I'm on a 10 he's on an 12. I would have replaced the battery in my 10 and kept it longer. This fall is upgrade time.

AI phones and power and memory needs increasing quickly will mean someone like me will need to upgrade every couple of years for the rest of this decade. No more keeping phones for 5+ years for a while if you want the new AI features. More and more will be forced onto the phone requiring new chips often. I didn't care about the improvements. But this stuff is awesome and I'll want to upgrade often. Times that by 100 million others or something like that.

That alone powers this company for this decade.  And more and more locked into services and maybe new service categories around AI.

I think their AR device will be big, not now, it will be. A slow build that will change things by the end of the decade. Maybe two years for an affordable version; 3 to 5 for an every day device priced like an iPhone. It will be how we watch sports and TV and concerts and yes a 3D social media world that might actually still happen.
It will be in companies with skilled labor, manufacturing on the line etc. less training needed to do a job; reboots won't be doing it all. This will be a big category.  The eco system will develop around it. They are not in a rush.

Home robot for elderly. They are working on something in the robot category not sure what but I think for elderly disabled. Not something that does the laundry. More for safety, companionship, communication, entertainment, health monitoring, all in one device. Helping keep people at home longer with memory issues, health issues, fewer hospital or dr trips etc.  What is out there now all has holes in what they can do. I've researched it for a parent and they all just miss. Apple might get this right. Will it be a product. We shall see.

Cars. Won't build their own but look for their tech to get more and more integrated. The vison and decision making they developed can be used in robots above and others cars.  Might buy into something like Rivian.

Who knows what else they are working on. Most of which gets scrapped. Big tech companies have staved off competition, buy up small competitors,  and will likely continue to do so.

I have not seen a single "killer" application in any generative "AI" product that I think has mass utility such that everyone will want that application on their devices. The second part of the bolded may be true that tech companies force out these applications in some integrated manner that increases hardware demand in a way to create an accelerated forced obsolescence cycle though (although, almost all of these applications don't run their computing on the native hardware of the user, so this may not actually be a concern. Yes, I know MSFT is pushing weird "AI" features onto snapdragon-powered computers, but I haven't seen it on phones yet).

I have been bearish on generative AI as a product for a long while now. It's clearly from Wall Street's perspective a wildly successful initiative, but outside of very niche applications I don't see it becoming widespread. I also have been bearish on the promised exponential quality growth of the models. During the Hollywood strikes people here were talking about how the tools were going to keep improving and I was beating the drum on here about how I thought they were approaching the asymptote of quality improvement. It's been a yearish since, and the models are not nearly improving at the promised rate.

[Skatastrophy]

I don't think AI will run locally on phones. They'll keep it in the cloud so that they have an excuse to keep all of your personal data, as is tradition. They will use the valid excuse of hardware efficiency.

Just my guess.

[Hards Alumni]

I think you'll see the following:

A two year "super cycle" in phones. "AI" phones. Me and my son have waited to upgrade since winter expecting that we'd need a new devices for AI. As it turns out could have bought a 15. I'm on a 10 he's on an 12. I would have replaced the battery in my 10 and kept it longer. This fall is upgrade time.

AI phones and power and memory needs increasing quickly will mean someone like me will need to upgrade every couple of years for the rest of this decade. No more keeping phones for 5+ years for a while if you want the new AI features. More and more will be forced onto the phone requiring new chips often. I didn't care about the improvements. But this stuff is awesome and I'll want to upgrade often. Times that by 100 million others or something like that.

That alone powers this company for this decade.  And more and more locked into services and maybe new service categories around AI.

I think their AR device will be big, not now, it will be. A slow build that will change things by the end of the decade. Maybe two years for an affordable version; 3 to 5 for an every day device priced like an iPhone. It will be how we watch sports and TV and concerts and yes a 3D social media world that might actually still happen.
It will be in companies with skilled labor, manufacturing on the line etc. less training needed to do a job; reboots won't be doing it all. This will be a big category.  The eco system will develop around it. They are not in a rush.

Home robot for elderly. They are working on something in the robot category not sure what but I think for elderly disabled. Not something that does the laundry. More for safety, companionship, communication, entertainment, health monitoring, all in one device. Helping keep people at home longer with memory issues, health issues, fewer hospital or dr trips etc.  What is out there now all has holes in what they can do. I've researched it for a parent and they all just miss. Apple might get this right. Will it be a product. We shall see.

Cars. Won't build their own but look for their tech to get more and more integrated. The vison and decision making they developed can be used in robots above and others cars.  Might buy into something like Rivian.

Who knows what else they are working on. Most of which gets scrapped. Big tech companies have staved off competition, buy up small competitors,  and will likely continue to do so.

Puff puff, pass, apple man.

[MU82]

Congrats to Elon Musk for successfully holding shareholders hostage. He apparently got the full ransom he demanded, and he crowed about it well ahead of any announcement.

With that success, he immediately is threatening to do it again. He wants 25% ownership of Tesla and has suggested on numerous occasions that if he doesn't get his way, he might push the best AI initiatives into other businesses he owns rather than Tesla.

[Hards Alumni]

I have not seen a single "killer" application in any generative "AI" product that I think has mass utility such that everyone will want that application on their devices. The second part of the bolded may be true that tech companies force out these applications in some integrated manner that increases hardware demand in a way to create an accelerated forced obsolescence cycle though (although, almost all of these applications don't run their computing on the native hardware of the user, so this may not actually be a concern. Yes, I know MSFT is pushing weird "AI" features onto snapdragon-powered computers, but I haven't seen it on phones yet).

I have been bearish on generative AI as a product for a long while now. It's clearly from Wall Street's perspective a wildly successful initiative, but outside of very niche applications I don't see it becoming widespread. I also have been bearish on the promised exponential quality growth of the models. During the Hollywood strikes people here were talking about how the tools were going to keep improving and I was beating the drum on here about how I thought they were approaching the asymptote of quality improvement. It's been a yearish since, and the models are not nearly improving at the promised rate.

Yep, largely agree.  I think a lot of money has flowed into AI on the promise of cost savings and no one wants to be left out.  But I think that there is a lot more development that has to happen for it to be practical for worker replacement, etc.