Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

Wisely stated ... especially your first sentence. The only thing we know for sure about which way the market is headed is that we don’t know!

I don’t live in Naples and I won’t make a mil on my house, but I have said to Mrs. 82 a couple times lately that maybe it’s time to think about selling. But she doesn’t want to ... and it’s hard to blame her.

As for stocks, even if there’s a crash, they’ll eventually go up again. “Eventually” could mean very quickly as in last spring; or fairly quickly as in a couple years after the Great Recession; or several years as in the Great Depression.

Glad we have some cash these days, too. Lousy returns, but lots of peace of mind.

Be well.

That's the thing, say you do sell... then what?  Do you downsize?  Do you move away from where you live to somewhere less affluent?  Does the cash from your sale do anything for you besides make you feel like you got out on top?  To me, to make money from home buying and selling is timing the market... which is pretty difficult.  Otherwise, prices remain pretty relative.  Sure, you made a bunch on your current home, but you're selling and then have to buy SOMETHING... or rent.  And ew to that.

[MU82]

That's the thing, say you do sell... then what?  Do you downsize?  Do you move away from where you live to somewhere less affluent?  Does the cash from your sale do anything for you besides make you feel like you got out on top?  To me, to make money from home buying and selling is timing the market... which is pretty difficult.  Otherwise, prices remain pretty relative.  Sure, you made a bunch on your current home, but you're selling and then have to buy SOMETHING... or rent.  And ew to that.

Can't argue with most of what you say.

I will say that when we ended up renting in Chicago for 40 months before moving to NC, we actually enjoyed it. No yard work. No upkeep of the structure. Sink clogged? It was fixed in a matter of hours by the in-house maintenance. Hell, they changed our dining-room chandelier bulb when one burned out. Our timing on that one happened to work out -- sold our condo in April 2007 right before the housing market went into the crapper, and we were able to buy in Charlotte when the market was still down -- but that was luck and little more.

It is possible that we will sell and then rent for at least awhile, but only likely if we move to be closer to one of our kids/grandkids.

Agree that trying to time everything perfectly, or even close to perfectly, is a fool's errand.

[StillAWarrior]

I’m taking a spin at the roulette wheel on NOK. Just placed an order for a few hundred shares.

Well after a strong Q1 report, it's doing well after hours.

I bought really, really high during the whole GME fiasco just to "feel" like I was participating in all that...like an idiot. Timing was never my strong suit. Fortunately, I didn't buy much. Hopefully it keeps heading in the right direction and maybe I can get back to even. That's a long way off, though.

[cheebs09]

Well after a strong Q1 report, it's doing well after hours.

I bought really, really high during the whole GME fiasco just to "feel" like I was participating in all that...like an idiot. Timing was never my strong suit. Fortunately, I didn't buy much. Hopefully it keeps heading in the right direction and maybe I can get back to even. That's a long way off, though.

Feels like I’m looking in a mirror. I put a little toward it to be a part of the rush.

[MU82]

At Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting, Charlie Munger let loose on crypto:

"Of course I hate the Bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists. I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”

Meanwhile, here's good news for our own Smuggles (Heisey) -- he has something big in common with the world's most famous investor.

Admitting he regretted selling Apple shares, Warren Buffett said: “That was probably a mistake."

[JWags85]

Munger is such a crotchety old condescending a**hole.  He spends 90% of his public remarks and appearances crapting on every new trend in the market and on any market participant under 60.  It’s possible to be one of the great investors of the last 100 years, and still be an out of touch dinosaur who is completely unwilling or unable to adapt or change.

I am no big fan of Buffett for myriad reasons, but he at least has the self awareness and understanding to admit that if he had to start from scratch in this era he would struggle.  Munger would probably just personally insult you if you dared pose a similar question

[MU82]

Munger is such a crotchety old condescending a**hole.  He spends 90% of his public remarks and appearances crapting on every new trend in the market and on any market participant under 60.  It’s possible to be one of the great investors of the last 100 years, and still be an out of touch dinosaur who is completely unwilling or unable to adapt or change.

I am no big fan of Buffett for myriad reasons, but he at least has the self awareness and understanding to admit that if he had to start from scratch in this era he would struggle.  Munger would probably just personally insult you if you dared pose a similar question

Yeah, I knew posting that would get some folks' hackles up.

And I agree with you. Munger cracks me up because he's such an old man yelling at kids to get off his cul-de-sac!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

And I agree with you. Munger cracks me up because he's such an old man yelling at kids to get off his cul-de-sac!

Yes. But I'm not sure I completely disagree with his view of crypto.

[Hards Alumni]

Yes. But I'm not sure I completely disagree with his view of crypto.

You should.  It's a really stupid take.  You know what currency the world uses for most of its illegal operations?  USD.

[Skatastrophy]

You should.  It's a really stupid take.  You know what currency the world uses for most of its illegal operations?  USD.

Yeah that part was a bad take. At least crypto is traceable.

But his point that bitcoin is "too volatile" to be considered a global medium of exchange? Agreed.

I like Munger,

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You should.  It's a really stupid take.  You know what currency the world uses for most of its illegal operations?  USD.

Yes, because it is currently much easier to use dollars for say, buying of illegal drugs, than to make a bitcoin transaction. Yet what medium of exchange do hackers and ransomware attackers usually ask for?

Beyond illegal transactions, though, my view is that crypto has limited uses, and a general medium of exchange is not one of them. I have a good friend and neighbor whose brother runs a private investment fund. He is all in on crypto and thinks bitcoin will go to $400,000. However, he doesn't believe it will ever be a broad medium of exchange and that its value will be derived from its scarcity and use as a store of value.  That's just one persons view of course.

[JWags85]

Yeah that part was a bad take. At least crypto is traceable.

But his point that bitcoin is "too volatile" to be considered a global medium of exchange? Agreed.

I like Munger,

Why?  He was a bad money manager on his own.  And then once he partnered up with Buffett, the division he overlooked basically parked huge sums of cash in blue chips.  He also made dumbass disproven comments about gold

My issue with him and people of his ilk is they dont produce any new ideas or theories, but just cynically shoot down everything new or transformative.  He doesnt actively manage money and hasn't for a long time.  I dont care about his negative and out of touch viewpoint the same way that I would roll my eyes at someone like Red Auerbach or Chuck Daly calling the modern trend or style of play in the NBA as toxic and unlikely to work.

[StillAWarrior]

Doge at $0.52. That's about 1200% for me.  About 17,000% for my daughter. 

[pacearrow02]

Doge at $0.52. That's about 1200% for me.  About 17,000% for my daughter. 

Let’s go!!!!!!!!  Love all the experts and paper hands who have been turning their nose up at Doge.  Just took over 3rd or 4th place of all cryptos!

[Goose]

Keep it going. $0.57 at the moment

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Another beat and raise from CVS. On track to have debt paid down to target by the end of the year in order to restart dividend increases.

[StillAWarrior]

Keep it going. $0.57 at the moment

My daughter just texted me to tell me it's over $0.60. She got in at $0.003.

[Goose]

Musk says it's going to the moon!!!!

[mu_hilltopper]

10 days ago I started on the crypto path, opening an account at Binance.us.  My verification took a week, which was nuts.

This morning, I figured I'd play with $100 in DOGE.   Clicked "Purchase" and it replied "Transaction failed, try again." 

So I did.   And each of the next four times, it said the same thing.    Then I got emails saying each of those 5 were successful, so now I own $500 in DOGE.

Which is fine .. just .. their system is screwy and worrisome.   

[Goose]

I am very happy that I provided a bull signal for Skats last week, but I am moving more into cash for the third straight trading day. I am a big fan of Leon Cooperman and his words of "this is not going to end well" hit home. 1987 and 2008 are both pretty fresh in my mind and I am going on defense.

I am a firm believer that we are going to have a major, major supply issue quickly. We have clients spending crazy money to air freight goods because container shortage is getting worse. The supply issue is going to accelerate the rise in inflation, IMO and I am going to be watching from the sidelines.

FYI---sticking with my ripple and Doge, which will keep my attention.

[pacearrow02]

Yellen setting the stage for rate increases to prevent the economy from “overheating”

So in one hand the administration wants congress to pass $4 trillion in additional spending to help a struggling economy recover from the pandemic and in the other we’re raising rates cause economy is on the brink of “overheating”.  🤪🤷‍♂️

[Spotcheck Billy]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7eeq8/this-tiktokers-scam-cryptocurrency-took-off-and-he-cant-believe-it

[Golden Avalanche]

Yellen setting the stage for rate increases to prevent the economy from “overheating”

So in one hand the administration wants congress to pass $4 trillion in additional spending to help a struggling economy recover from the pandemic and in the other we’re raising rates cause economy is on the brink of “overheating”.  🤪🤷‍♂️

Did you purposely leave out the part where she said the spending plans are necessary investments to push our economy forward and moderate interest rate increases will be coupled along with that? Or did you not know about her full answer?

[pacearrow02]

Did you purposely leave out the part where she said the spending plans are necessary investments to push our economy forward and moderate interest rate increases will be coupled along with that? Or did you not know about her full answer?

I did not see her full answer but how does that change anything.  Either the economy is roaring thus rates need to be bumped up a bit or it’s spinning it’s tires in the fog of the pandemic and we need the gov’t to step in and give it a kickstart (which I wouldn’t think would come along with a rate increase). 

If the spending bills are the main thing that will trigger the rate increase, let’s maybe not do it?!?!  Or am i over simplifying it?

[Golden Avalanche]

I did not see her full answer but how does that change anything.  Either the economy is roaring thus rates need to be bumped up a bit or it’s spinning it’s tires in the fog of the pandemic and we need the gov’t to step in and give it a kickstart (which I wouldn’t think would come along with a rate increase). 

If the spending bills are the main thing that will trigger the rate increase, let’s maybe not do it?!?!  Or am i over simplifying it?

Why are your benchmarks so extreme? Is there no room between "roaring" and "spinning its tires"?

Perhaps we have an economy that survived the pandemic recession fairly well comparative to others due to multiple capital infusions but still has fundamental concerns regarding its antiquated structure. Those concerns could be met midway with the further spending providing for a realignment of the labor market as we transition into a different environment ahead.

Ensuring the economy doesn't backslide into a recession by investing while at the same time seeing a quarter point here and a quarter point there to stave off inflation seems to be a note on both sides of the argument working in tandem.