Investing Thread

[Warriors, Come Out and Playeeyay]

With all the talk about inflation, supply chain challenges, heightened wages, workforce challenges, stimulus packages, etc, is anyone willing to bet against the craps shooter and invest in SQQQ (basically shorting the Nasdaq)

[Goose]

Warriors

Likely will short SPY, but possible same play on QQQ. Only going to nibble on SPY going into weekends and see what happens at start of biz the following week.

[#UnleashSean]

[pacearrow02]

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

[Goose]

To the moon!!

[StillAWarrior]

sell sell sell sell [at $0.16]

I think today was probably the right day to get out [at $0.36]. 

As of right now, it's at $0.67.

I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

As of right now, it's at $0.67.

I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.

He's no Heisey, but close.

[Skatastrophy]

Why?  He was a bad money manager on his own.  And then once he partnered up with Buffett, the division he overlooked basically parked huge sums of cash in blue chips.  He also made dumbass disproven comments about gold

My issue with him and people of his ilk is they dont produce any new ideas or theories, but just cynically shoot down everything new or transformative.  He doesnt actively manage money and hasn't for a long time.  I dont care about his negative and out of touch viewpoint the same way that I would roll my eyes at someone like Red Auerbach or Chuck Daly calling the modern trend or style of play in the NBA as toxic and unlikely to work.

I agree that Munger has mostly bad takes. I just think he's very funny, like the dad from That 70's Show.

[Coleman]

As of right now, it's at $0.67.

I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.

Unless you really need the money, why not let it ride?

All my doge I acquired free from a crypto faucet. That said, I have like 40 dogecoins, so its not worth much at all. But might as well just let it ride.

[StillAWarrior]

Unless you really need the money, why not let it ride?

All my doge I acquired free from a crypto faucet. That said, I have like 40 dogecoins, so its not worth much at all. But might as well just let it ride.

Here's my thinking (for what it's worth) - it's not enough that it will ever "make a difference" in our lives. If I had bought $1000 or $5000, I might feel differently. Given the fact that it won't make a difference in our lives, I want to remember the fun we had with it. If I give each of our kids $150 to spend in on vacation...we'll have a fond memory tied to our experience with this silly meme. We don't "need" the $600. But it's also not within our normal practice to just give our kids $600 to spend just for the hell of it. So, we'll do this and create some memories. My belief is that if we don't do that, we'll just be left with, "remember that one time we had that stupid little investment that blew up and then went back to nothing."

Edited to add: and if it goes up to $5...well...I'll be bummed out about that. Then again it "still" would only be a couple thousand dollars. Now if it goes up to $55,000 like bitcoin...

[The Lens]

buy the dips

[Coleman]

Here's my thinking (for what it's worth) - it's not enough that it will ever "make a difference" in our lives. If I had bought $1000 or $5000, I might feel differently. Given the fact that it won't make a difference in our lives, I want to remember the fun we had with it. If I give each of our kids $150 to spend in on vacation...we'll have a fond memory tied to our experience with this silly meme. We don't "need" the $600. But it's also not within our normal practice to just give our kids $600 to spend just for the hell of it. So, we'll do this and create some memories. My belief is that if we don't do that, we'll just be left with, "remember that one time we had that stupid little investment that blew up and then went back to nothing."

Edited to add: and if it goes up to $5...well...I'll be bummed out about that. Then again it "still" would only be a couple thousand dollars. Now if it goes up to $55,000 like bitcoin...

That makes sense.

I think doge could hit $1. Maybe $2.

$55k not so much. Supply is unlimited, unlike bitcoin

[JWags85]

That makes sense.

I think doge could hit $1. Maybe $2.

$55k not so much. Supply is unlimited, unlike bitcoin

Thats been one of the glaring inconsistencies to all of this.  So many people don't comprehend even the most basic differences between Doge and BTC.  The buy volume to keep the price rising as supply continues to rise will sink it sooner rather than later.  If someone is talking price targets in the triple digits, much less higher, they have no clue what they are talking about

[Hards Alumni]

Yes, because it is currently much easier to use dollars for say, buying of illegal drugs, than to make a bitcoin transaction. Yet what medium of exchange do hackers and ransomware attackers usually ask for?

Beyond illegal transactions, though, my view is that crypto has limited uses, and a general medium of exchange is not one of them. I have a good friend and neighbor whose brother runs a private investment fund. He is all in on crypto and thinks bitcoin will go to $400,000. However, he doesn't believe it will ever be a broad medium of exchange and that its value will be derived from its scarcity and use as a store of value.  That's just one persons view of course.

Bolded: It's about the same.  BTC gets used because the account can't be frozen by a nation.  You still know the address of the people asking for the BTC and it can be traced.

Italicized:  Your good friend's brother is correct.  I don't think anyone is claiming that BTC would be used as a traditional currency.  It is more comparable to gold, but better in every way.

[StillAWarrior]

That makes sense.

I think doge could hit $1. Maybe $2.

$55k not so much. Supply is unlimited, unlike bitcoin

That's exactly where I am coming from. Forty-Eight hours ago, I would have thought that there was an outside chance of it ever hitting $1. Now, I'm not so sure. Maybe there's an outside chance of $2; I think $5 is wildly unlikely. And, of course, $55k was just a joke.  Given that, I'd rather take advantage of our family vacation and get some enjoyment out of it than hold it hoping to make another few hundred bucks.

For me, this is the flip side of the frequently quoted adage, "You haven't lost anything if you don't sell."

[Hards Alumni]

As of right now, it's at $0.67.

I'm just giving you a hard time, Hards...I know that this is funny money and there is no rational explanation for what is going on with it. I'm pretty sure I'm going to sell within a couple days. We don't honestly have very much -- I started with about $25 -- certainly not enough to ever "make a difference" in our lives. So, I think we're going to sell it soon to give each of our kids some spending money on our upcoming vacation.

Lol, I'm wrong a lot on investing.  I get crushed when I pick stocks.  One thing I've been right on is my BTC and ETH money.

I stay away from DOGE because I know what it is.  If you guys wanna full on gamble on it, go nuts.  I've explained why I don't have any faith in it, and why I know a ton of people are going to get burned on it.

But yea, I'm just a dip stick on the internet who makes bad plays often!

[Hards Alumni]

Thats been one of the glaring inconsistencies to all of this.  So many people don't comprehend even the most basic differences between Doge and BTC.  The buy volume to keep the price rising as supply continues to rise will sink it sooner rather than later.  If someone is talking price targets in the triple digits, much less higher, they have no clue what they are talking about

Yup.  Look at what the market cap would be at $1.  Literal house of cards.

[Goose]

I'm getting out of Doge at $10k or maybe $0.05. Musk might make a lot of short term millionaires this weekend or a lot of unhappy guys in their basement (me).

[Coleman]

I'm getting out of Doge

I see what you did there

[Skatastrophy]

I know most of you guys are DOGE value investors but hear me out:

I'd be buying the $NET dip today if it wasn't already such a large part of my portfolio. I've been a happy customer of theirs for years.

NET is already trading at ~50x sales right now, so you should be prepared for price volatility. They're a long-term hold, imo.

[Coleman]

DOGE value investors

LOL

[Goose]

Warriors

Short the QQQ. Went short during the late hour rally but like my position.

[JWags85]

Warriors

Short the QQQ. When short during the late hour rally but like my position.

Feel like the may run stops during the first half of the day tomorrow, but going into next week, short feels like the play.  Market feels like it's on fumes and good earnings reports consistently getting sold off is ominous

[MU82]

buy the dips

I do, every time I buy the chips!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Feel like the may run stops during the first half of the day tomorrow, but going into next week, short feels like the play.  Market feels like it's on fumes and good earnings reports consistently getting sold off is ominous

I'll preface this by reiterating that I don't try to time the market; the closest to that I come is by accumulating cash when I don't see anything valuable to buy, and then allocating the piled up cash when I do.

So having said that, this doesn't feel like a top or sell signal to me. Earnings have been massive, even better than expected, so things have sort of chugged along. If earnings outpace market increases I'd be happy as it would take a bit of froth out of the indexes. But the most important thing is what the following quarters' rate of earnings change looks like. I suspect that YoY earnings will continue to be massive, and the rate of change will slow down a bit (it almost has to). I think that means continued flat to up for the next two quarters.

The risk IMO is inflation and any resulting Fed increase in interest rates. But I am still a net buyer here.

Had my buy-write-dividend capture trade called away from me today but I'll take a 284% annualized rate of return any time.