Investing Thread

[vogue65]

Ok Boomer

Thanks for the complement.
My father was a combat infantry officer in the battle of the bulge.
I lived thru the Vietnam war in the Marine Corps.
I smelled the Twin Towers.
I navigated the 2007-08 global financial crash.
I survived the pandemic in Bergamo, Italy.
And now I will survive the arrival of socialism.
Enjoy

[Galway Eagle]

Thanks for the complement.
My father was a combat infantry officer in the battle of the bulge.
I lived thru the Vietnam war in the Marine Corps.
I smelled the Twin Towers.
I navigated the 2007-08 global financial crash.
I survived the pandemic in Bergamo, Italy.
And now I will survive the arrival of socialism.
Enjoy

*Still cannot figure out PowerPoint

I jest before everybody gets up in arms about it

[vogue65]

*Still cannot figure out PowerPoint

I jest before everybody gets up in arms about it

PowerPoint, been there done that.  Zoom, did that 20 years ago.   I was the first on my block to have a DOD Blackberry.  I don't even have a cell phone now.  Great being retired.

[WarriorDad]

And yet you pretend Richard Burr didn't do something wrong here, dismissing it as "they all do it."

Good to see him stepping down as chairman today.  Would not be heartbroken to see him resign from the Senate and if he is found to have done something illegal, put him on trial.

[MU82]

Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE), which claims to have a "cure" for COVID-19, is up 65% in the first 10 minutes of trading, leaping from around $2/share to well over $4.

I guess my 100,000 shares will do pretty well! (In my dreams.)

Still well below its 52-week high of $5.09 though.

[Silkk the Shaka]

PowerPoint, been there done that.  Zoom, did that 20 years ago.   I was the first on my block to have a DOD Blackberry.  I don't even have a cell phone now.  Great being retired.

I'm losing my edge.

I can hear the footsteps every night on the decks.
But I was there.
I was there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City.
I was working on the organ sounds with much patience.
I was there when Captain Beefheart started up his first band.
I told him, "Don't do it that way. You'll never make a dime."
I was there.
I was the first guy playing Daft Punk to the rock kids.
I played it at CBGB's.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
We all know.
I was there.
I was there.
I've never been wrong.
I used to work in the record store.
I had everything before anyone.
I was there in the Paradise Garage DJ booth with Larry Levan.
I was there in Jamaica during the great sound clashes.
I woke up naked on the beach in Ibiza in 1988.
But I'm losing my edge to better-looking people with better ideas and more talent.
And they're actually really, really nice.

I'm losing my edge.

[Hards Alumni]

I'm losing my edge.

I can hear the footsteps every night on the decks.
But I was there.
I was there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City.
I was working on the organ sounds with much patience.
I was there when Captain Beefheart started up his first band.
I told him, "Don't do it that way. You'll never make a dime."
I was there.
I was the first guy playing Daft Punk to the rock kids.
I played it at CBGB's.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
We all know.
I was there.
I was there.
I've never been wrong.
I used to work in the record store.
I had everything before anyone.
I was there in the Paradise Garage DJ booth with Larry Levan.
I was there in Jamaica during the great sound clashes.
I woke up naked on the beach in Ibiza in 1988.
But I'm losing my edge to better-looking people with better ideas and more talent.
And they're actually really, really nice.

I'm losing my edge.

And you're getting older
I promise you this; you're getting older
And there's improvements unless
You're such a winner
That the future's a nightmare
And there's nothing I can do
Nothing anyone can do about this

[MU82]

Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE), which claims to have a "cure" for COVID-19, is up 65% in the first 10 minutes of trading, leaping from around $2/share to well over $4.

I guess my 100,000 shares will do pretty well! (In my dreams.)

Still well below its 52-week high of $5.09 though.

Hit a new high today and is up 88% as I write this. But overall Mr. Market - which for weeks had jumped at every announcement of a possible cure or vaccine or therapy - is actually down.

Might be the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing finally hitting.

[JWags85]

Hit a new high today and is up 88% as I write this. But overall Mr. Market - which for weeks had jumped at every announcement of a possible cure or vaccine or therapy - is actually down.

Might be the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing finally hitting.

Combo of 2 things. 

1) Market is a bit tired of whipsaw cure or vaccine bounces until there is published data, IMO.

2) A bigger issue is the Huawei decision and China's retalitory action of adding companies like AAPL, BA, and others to their "Unreliable Entity List", aka blacklist for not being CCP lapdogs.  This is an aggressive escalation from both sides that could get ugly.

[Hards Alumni]

Combo of 2 things. 

1) Market is a bit tired of whipsaw cure or vaccine bounces until there is published data, IMO.

2) A bigger issue is the Huawei decision and China's retalitory action of adding companies like AAPL, BA, and others to their "Unreliable Entity List", aka blacklist for not being CCP lapdogs.  This is an aggressive escalation from both sides that could get ugly.

Trade War 2: Electric Boogaloo

[MU82]

Combo of 2 things. 

1) Market is a bit tired of whipsaw cure or vaccine bounces until there is published data, IMO.

2) A bigger issue is the Huawei decision and China's retalitory action of adding companies like AAPL, BA, and others to their "Unreliable Entity List", aka blacklist for not being CCP lapdogs.  This is an aggressive escalation from both sides that could get ugly.

Agree on both of those.

Xi has a major advantage on Trump, because he doesn't need to get re-elected. He can delay and hem and haw on carrying out any "agreement." This is a desperate issue for Trump, who made it a central part of his campaign.

So far, his wrangling with China has put American farmers in such a world of hurt that he had to create an entirely new welfare program for them ... and then small farmers ended up getting very little of the money. And for a lot of other industries, the effects of the ongoing trade war have been amplified by the pandemic.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Trade War 2: Electric Boogaloo

What?? A lot of people say, trade wars are easy to win.

Or so I've heard.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

So far, his wrangling with China has put American farmers in such a world of hurt that he had to create an entirely new welfare program for them ... and then small farmers ended up getting very little of the money. And for a lot of other industries, the effects of the ongoing trade war have been amplified by the pandemic.

And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.

[vogue65]

I'm losing my edge.

I can hear the footsteps every night on the decks.
But I was there.
I was there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City.
I was working on the organ sounds with much patience.
I was there when Captain Beefheart started up his first band.
I told him, "Don't do it that way. You'll never make a dime."
I was there.
I was the first guy playing Daft Punk to the rock kids.
I played it at CBGB's.
Everybody thought I was crazy.
We all know.
I was there.
I was there.
I've never been wrong.
I used to work in the record store.
I had everything before anyone.
I was there in the Paradise Garage DJ booth with Larry Levan.
I was there in Jamaica during the great sound clashes.
I woke up naked on the beach in Ibiza in 1988.
But I'm losing my edge to better-looking people with better ideas and more talent.
And they're actually really, really nice.

I'm losing my edge.

I'm timing out on a lot of things, it's O.K., it is what it is.

[Tortuga94]

Hit a new high today and is up 88% as I write this. But overall Mr. Market - which for weeks had jumped at every announcement of a possible cure or vaccine or therapy - is actually down.

Might be the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing finally hitting.

Looks like it's making a new high today along with other vaccine stocks, Moderna is up huge again today too. I've been lucky with MRNA, I bought it long before this virus issue, sold it when it ran up to 30, mentioned I would buy it back if it fell back into the mid 20s, thankfully it did and I took another small position(100 shares), but I'll be selling half of those shares today when the market opens. It's hard to justify a 30 plus billion dollar valuation for a company that still has zero revenue and is losing money every quarter. I'm hopeful that this vaccine will work, but the good results right now are only partial results from their ongoing phase 1 trial, with results from only 8 patients, there is still more data to come. They are hoping for phase 3 trials to start in July, so we'll have to see how the rest of the story plays out with the mRNA-1273 vaccine trials.

[MU82]

Looks like it's making a new high today along with other vaccine stocks, Moderna is up huge again today too. I've been lucky with MRNA, I bought it long before this virus issue, sold it when it ran up to 30, mentioned I would buy it back if it fell back into the mid 20s, thankfully it did and I took another small position(100 shares), but I'll be selling half of those shares today when the market opens. It's hard to justify a 30 plus billion dollar valuation for a company that still has zero revenue and is losing money every quarter. I'm hopeful that this vaccine will work, but the good results right now are only partial results from their ongoing phase 1 trial, with results from only 8 patients, there is still more data to come. They are hoping for phase 3 trials to start in July, so we'll have to see how the rest of the story plays out with the mRNA-1273 vaccine trials.

These are fun times to be a trader, I bet. I don't have the stomach for it, but I root for guys like you who have done their homework and are reaping the spoils. Continued good fortune!

[vogue65]

And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.

Our industrial base has largely disappeared since the emphasis on small business, and deregulation 40+ years ago.

The multinationals needed to make quartely profit to satisy  Wall Street.

United States Steel found they could make more money in finance than in making steel.  GE with Jack  Welsch made similar decisions.  Now we have X, no longer United States Steel. 

These realities are the result of long term strategic decisions. 

The service based economy was a successful sell, but has had unintended consequences.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The industrial base began disappearing more than 40 years ago.  With low barriers to trade, low to medium skilled industrial work is best done elsewhere.  It's hard to fight economics.  We do services and higher-skilled industry better.  And the low trade barriers help everyone.

The problem is that those services need more education and training.  And we need to do better making that available.

[vogue65]

The industrial base began disappearing more than 40 years ago.  With low barriers to trade, low to medium skilled industrial work is best done elsewhere.  It's hard to fight economics.  We do services and higher-skilled industry better.  And the low trade barriers help everyone.

The problem is that those services need more education and training.  And we need to do better making that available.

That's the party line.

The reality is that we have millions of people without the skills, education, mentors, motivation, and "we" do little to provide the education and training.  We continue to reduce taxes and talk the talk.  Some people can't survive in the modern "economics".

Furthermore, it is unreasonable to argue that automation creates as many opportunites as it eliminates.

So here we are with millions of unqualified people living in the under class.   

Now for the diatribe. 

I worked my way through Marquette.  One job I had was a night shift spray painter at Allis Chalmers.  It was the West Allis works, it had a railroad, a hospital, it is now a shopping mall.  It was like the Lackawanna Works in Buffalo.

Many African Americans came to Milwaukee to work in the industrial base.  They mostly worked in the dirty, hard, dangerous jobs.  They worked with forging hammers, rolling mills, casting foundries, spray painting, soldering, welding, etc..

Then we exported the jobs.  The workers had families, who had failies, who have families.
And here we are with the party line.   

With all do respect, I don't agree with the party line.   

I've been everywhere man,  Richmond, Indianapolis,  Johnstown, Birmingham, Erie, Buffalo, Wichita, Tullahoma, Osawatomi, Kansas City, Bridgeport, Chicago, Gary, New Orleans, and so forth.

What have I seen?  Millions and millions and millions of the underclass.  Nobody gives a s$$t.  It is what it is.  We do our finance thing, and the people be damed. We say "it's economics", but is it?  It is bad, heartless, greedy economics.

I have no worry.  The end game of ruthless capitalism will be socialism, probably a mixed economy.  I don't have to do anything, it will happen because it is the inevitable future.   Enjoy the Nantucket slay ride.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

That's the party line.

The reality is that we have millions of people without the skills, education, mentors, motivation, and "we" do little to provide the education and training.  We continue to reduce taxes and talk the talk.  Some people can't survive in the modern "economics".

I guess you skipped the part where I said this:  "The problem is that those services need more education and training.  And we need to do better making that available."

[Tortuga94]

These are fun times to be a trader, I bet. I don't have the stomach for it, but I root for guys like you who have done their homework and are reaping the spoils. Continued good fortune!

Don't consider myself to be a trader, more of a long-term investor, but when a stock is up so much in such a short period of time, it's been my experience that these huge run-ups, and spike upwards in share price, almost always present an opportunity to buy back at a lower price. Just pull up a chart on MRNA, it's gone from a low of just under 18 to over 80 in a mater of a few months, and the bulk of those gains have happened in the last few weeks. When a stock is up over 300% in a month, in my book it makes sense to take some profits.

[Elonsmusk]

Looks like it's making a new high today along with other vaccine stocks, Moderna is up huge again today too. I've been lucky with MRNA, I bought it long before this virus issue, sold it when it ran up to 30, mentioned I would buy it back if it fell back into the mid 20s, thankfully it did and I took another small position(100 shares), but I'll be selling half of those shares today when the market opens. It's hard to justify a 30 plus billion dollar valuation for a company that still has zero revenue and is losing money every quarter. I'm hopeful that this vaccine will work, but the good results right now are only partial results from their ongoing phase 1 trial, with results from only 8 patients, there is still more data to come. They are hoping for phase 3 trials to start in July, so we'll have to see how the rest of the story plays out with the mRNA-1273 vaccine trials.

It is remarkable what biotech valuations can soar to.  I bought a position in MRNA a month ago at $47.  Sold out pre-market today at $86.  Also did the same with FLGT which I bought at $10, they got approved for a testing kit today and it soared pre-market to $22, sold half my position as I love their business long term - and they have increasing revenues and market cap of only $368M.

Still believe AMRN is a a great investment at its current $7.62 share price.  Revenues doubled 3 years in a row and Q1 2020 up 108% over Q1 2019.  Market cap of only 2.94B.  $645M Cash on hand.  Suspect this is being held down by big pharma as their one drug, Vascepa, will disrupt the whole cardiovascular drug market, and how care is delivered.

Some big catalysts ahead in near term for AMRN, with readouts of their EVAPORATE study - which essential shows clearing of arteries - which can eliminate need for stenting.  European approval and partners should be announced in Q3.

I now have 50% of my portfolio invested into AMRN dollar cost averaged down to $8.25.

[vogue65]

I guess you skipped the part where I said this:  "The problem is that those services need more education and training.  And we need to do better making that available."

I didn't, I understand and spoke like that for years, what I call the party line.  Sounds good, it's true, but nothing ever happens.  We talk the talk and nothing changes except that the problem grows and grows.

Spoke yesterday with a young man who played Division 3 football while majoring in math. at a first rate univetsity.  He has been out a few years but still has the hood mentality.  I don't speak that way, but a Wall Street African American friend of mine does. 

My young friend is thinking of going back for some more schooling in, you guesed it, finance.  He has made a killing in vedio games, oh boy.   Then we have the dot com drug companies, the app. guys, the get rich quick "analyst's".   Been there done that, for every winner there are a hundred losers.  Oh well, go for the gold.  Oh, gold, that's another story.

[WarriorDad]

And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.

Depressed in what way?  Which metric are you using?

[vogue65]

And he ravaged the US steel industry as well as depressing US manufacturing.

The steel industry left for financial reasons.  They went into the real estate and leasing businesses with their assets.  GE went into leasing and insurance.   We have lost many industries over 45 years.  Commercial ship building, high speed rail, many aircraft types, clothing, tools, even elevators.  We service elevators, we dont manufactuer them.

This is far from a recent phenomenon, and education is not the solution.  Politics can't solve the problem.

Not only have we lost jobs, but we have lost capital.