Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Personally, still don't like Boeing until they fix their problems.

Per my plan to invest on the way down, added to Amazon, Amgen, and the SPY so far today.

[Chili]

I've been in about 98% bonds now for a little over 2 weeks. Was originally told to target the S&P at 2500 but have now been told to wait for 2350-2400 which was the close on 12/24/18. Still a lot more bottom to drop out.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I've been in about 98% bonds now for a little over 2 weeks. Was originally told to target the S&P at 2500 but have now been told to wait for 2350-2400 which was the close on 12/24/18. Still a lot more bottom to drop out.

Yup, seems probable that we aren't at bottom, but I'll be easing in larger and larger amounts the further we go down, because I have no idea where the bottom is or when it will suddenly turnaround.

The 2008/2009 financial crisis had a very different genesis of course, but the market movement and unbridled fear might be very similar.

[Bad_Reporter]

Y’all think we’re close to bottom?  I’ve read that China is on the upswing when it comes to Corona.  They’re down to single digit new cases now, and have a population 4x the U.S.

[jficke13]

Y’all think we’re close to bottom?  I’ve read that China is on the upswing when it comes to Corona.  They’re down to single digit new cases now, and have a population 4x the U.S.

I don't. I think the virus has to actually start spreading and affecting the US in serious numbers. So far we have anticipatory panic. If we're really following the infection path of Italy (and thus far it seems like we might be simply by numbers), then we're 7-13 days behind them. I think the market won't start putting in a bottom until we really start get hit here.

[Goose]

I have been short SPY since 2/21 and had the stomach to hold every day, with taking some off the table on the down days and adding on the rallies. Went long SPY about an hour ago and hope I have the stomach to ride this out as well. There will be economic stimulus announced in today or over next few days. Only question mark I have on this upcoming announce is will anyone care.

On one of the earlier pages on this thread I warned about the economic fallout from the virus and I was spooked going back to the Wuhan announcement, but things have turned even far worse than my fears. Two weeks ago my fears changed from the supply side to the demand side and that is far more troubling. Not sure what the answer is but we are living crazy frickin time in history.

[WarriorDad]

Think long term.  People pulling their money out making same mistake as 2008 and never fully recovered.

[Bad_Reporter]

Just bought 400 shares of OXY at $10.90

[mu03eng]

Thoughts on buying Boeing?  Down to $158

I am/would. The Covid-19 is going to dominate the news for the next month likely and that could/should give Boeing the runway to complete their efforts and restore the Max fleet to operation

Sorry for the pun it was just sitting there wait to take off

Sorry again

Sorry

[JWags85]

I don't. I think the virus has to actually start spreading and affecting the US in serious numbers. So far we have anticipatory panic. If we're really following the infection path of Italy (and thus far it seems like we might be simply by numbers), then we're 7-13 days behind them. I think the market won't start putting in a bottom until we really start get hit here.

I’d agree with you if we didn’t just do what we did overnight. You’re getting everything right now. And compound by the market rejecting any and everything the President has said. So it’s rejecting bounces on the promise of stimulus or relief packages. Those bills and money injections will put in a backstop and push us up, but we’re see it won’t happen until it’s on paper. But the risk is all to the upside here, we have corrected so far already. We’ve already washed out and baked in drops for companies that miss upcoming earnings, lower guidance, etc..

Look at companies that should “thrive” in a quarantine situation. Streaming companies, TDOC, ZM, etc.. they are all being sold off without regard to their business situations or potentials.

The more indiscriminate 100-200 slashes on the SPX we see in panicked reactionary moves, the less I feel we have prolonged downside coming

[Chili]

I am/would. The Covid-19 is going to dominate the news for the next month likely and that could/should give Boeing the runway to complete their efforts and restore the Max fleet to operation

Sorry for the pun it was just sitting there wait to take off

Sorry again

Sorry

This is also going to do serious damage to most every company. We've already written 2020 off and are excited for much better comps in 2021.

Edit: The only sector of the US economy that has been doing well in recent months / quarters is the service sector which is about to get HAMMERED!!!!!

[jficke13]

I’d agree with you if we didn’t just do what we did overnight. You’re getting everything right now. And compound by the market rejecting any and everything the President has said. So it’s rejecting bounces on the promise of stimulus or relief packages. Those bills and money injections will put in a backstop and push us up, but we’re see it won’t happen until it’s on paper. But the risk is all to the upside here, we have corrected so far already. We’ve already washed out and baked in drops for companies that miss upcoming earnings, lower guidance, etc..

Look at companies that should “thrive” in a quarantine situation. Streaming companies, TDOC, ZM, etc.. they are all being sold off without regard to their business situations or potentials.

The more indiscriminate 100-200 slashes on the SPX we see in panicked reactionary moves, the less I feel we have prolonged downside coming

I hope you're right and I just miss the bottom. I'll miss the chance to turn cash into long gains and that's okay.

I'm still apprehensive that we are going to see a bad reaction when our diagnosis numbers surge and our hospital capacity tap out.

[Benny B]

Thoughts on buying Boeing?  Down to $158

I might be buying a little.  The options market seems to think it's poised for a rebound, but I'm heavily into GE calls right now, so I'm hesitant about putting too many eggs in the MAX basket.

[mu03eng]

Thoughts on Disney? Kind of a really mixed bag for them

-ESPN and theme parks will be a huge drag
-ABC News and Disney+ should see a boom

Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse

[rocky_warrior]

Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse

Too many (myself included) index fund investors.  I don't have time or patience to research individual stocks anymore, so I mostly just use index funds to catch market trends.

[Coleman]

Too many (myself included) index fund investors.  I don't have time or patience to research individual stocks anymore, so I mostly just use index funds to catch market trends.

Yup.

[Coleman]

Thoughts on Disney? Kind of a really mixed bag for them

-ESPN and theme parks will be a huge drag
-ABC News and Disney+ should see a boom

Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse

Net-negative. You are also forgetting blockbuster movies (Marvel, Pixar, etc.), which no one will attend in theaters for the foreseeable future. But impact is definitely cushioned by some of their diversification (i.e. TV and streaming).

[Chili]

Net-negative. You are also forgetting blockbuster movies (Marvel, Pixar, etc.), which no one will attend in theaters for the foreseeable future. But impact is definitely cushioned by some of their diversification (i.e. TV and streaming).

Netflix is also completely funded issuing junk bonds so that will weigh on d/e ratios and is much riskier than t-bills.

[rocket surgeon]

Thoughts on Disney? Kind of a really mixed bag for them

-ESPN and theme parks will be a huge drag
-ABC News and Disney+ should see a boom

Side note, the fact that Netflix is down so much tells me the market is super irrational right now. This whole environment seems to play right into Netflix wheelhouse

my thoughts exactly plus gilead sciences, along with a few others attempting to develop a coronavirus vaccine are all down

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-nine-companies-are-working-on-coronavirus-treatments-or-vaccines-heres-where-things-stand-2020-03-06

[GooooMarquette]

Too many (myself included) index fund investors.  I don't have time or patience to research individual stocks anymore, so I mostly just use index funds to catch market trends.

I do the autopilot thing with 95%+ of our investments, but keep a small pool in cash that I use to buy and sell stocks for the sport of it (and hopefully some profit). 

In stocks, I have some T, MSFT and INTC that has gotten hammered the last couple of days but will be fine in the long run, and just bought some GOOGL (first at $1255, more at $1200). I might get a few more shares of GOOGL now that it's around $1100, and then hang back for a while. I won't be surprised if they all dip more, but I'm confident those companies will be as good as any long-term.

[MU82]

Much (Most) of the stock selling is institutional investors. This is a 2-part thing. 1, When individual investors panic and sell their funds and ETFs, managers have no choice but to sell the stocks within those funds and ETFs; 2, Fund managers know they are judged on performance so they sell at the first, second and third signs of trouble.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I do the autopilot thing with 95%+ of our investments, but keep a small pool in cash that I use to buy and sell stocks for the sport of it (and hopefully some profit). 

In stocks, I have some T, MSFT and INTC that has gotten hammered the last couple of days but will be fine in the long run, and just bought some GOOGL (first at $1255, more at $1200). I might get a few more shares of GOOGL now that it's around $1100, and then hang back for a while. I won't be surprised if they all dip more, but I'm confident those companies will be as good as any long-term.

I added DLR (data center REIT) and have networking stocks on the list for the next tranche.  But I like the thought of adding more GOOGL as well.

[JWags85]

my thoughts exactly plus gilead sciences, along with a few others attempting to develop a coronavirus vaccine are all down

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-nine-companies-are-working-on-coronavirus-treatments-or-vaccines-heres-where-things-stand-2020-03-06

Bios are traditionally super news dependent anyways, but this is that on hyper speed. Basically it completely hinges on news. Look at MRNA, look at INO. They have news and bounce, but if there isn’t a follow up the next day, they sell it off and more. They won’t let anything just float. If anything passes as it pertains to tests or trails, they will slingshot past those levels and more, but there is no way they will just float higher on promise like they would in more positive market conditions.

[Hards Alumni]

Gonna pop the circuit breaker tomorrow morning again

[Bad_Reporter]

Gonna pop the circuit breaker tomorrow morning again

Remember, you don’t lose until you sell.