Investing Thread

[Elonsmusk]

Would strongly encourage all to get into AMRN, ASAP - as in Monday.  I put 50% of my portfolio into it back in July and used another 25% to buy the dips the last 5 months for dollar cost average of $18 per share.

AMRN's Vascepa will revolutionize the way we treat heart disease, diabetes, strokes, and potentially dementia.

Other strong biotech play:  IGMS

Stock I took a flier on and kind of like is WRTC.

Still confident on AMRN, but hope some took a look at/bought IGMS - was trading at $28.20 at close on Friday the 13th...at 44.00 now.

[Cheeks]

I asked earlier if people were pulling back, finding safe harbor with more stable investments.   

CNN released a poll today on consumer sentiment, 76% say economy is good...hasn't been that high per CNN since 2001.  I'm seeing some firms predicting stock market hits 35,000 in 2020 while others predicting a major reset.  Torn on what to do at the moment. 

[MU82]

Been quite a year-plus for Boeing.

The crashes ... the lies about the 737 Max ... finally the begrudging admissions about the 737 Max ... the repeated false starts pertaining to "the 737 Max is almost ready to come back" ... the canceling of tons of orders for the plane ... Airbus making hay on Boeing's woes ... the botched space mission that had to be aborted last week ... and now today, CEO Dennis Muilenburg is out.

I had been very fortunate with my BA position. It wasn't anywhere near the top of my watch list when in Feb 2016, it was announced that the SEC would be looking into the company for accounting issues. That drove the already-low price of the stock down near 100, and I thought it was too good a value to ignore; I bought my stake at 115. I held it through the start of the 737 Max stuff but decided in March to take my profits, selling around 390.

It's now at 328, more than 100 points off its all-time high. Frankly, the fact that it hasn't fallen even harder after all of its problems is pretty telling about the company's fundamental strength.

When I sold, I figured BA eventually would have true good news ... and when it happens, the price probably will recover and then some. But I was sick of the drama and I didn't really "need" it in my portfolio. (FWIW, my daughter bought her stake about the same time I did -- even better price, 110 -- and she hasn't sold hers.)

Not giving any advice about whether others should buy, sell or hold here, as I don't know anybody else's goals, risk tolerance levels, circumstances, etc.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Been quite a year-plus for Boeing.

The crashes ... the lies about the 737 Max ... finally the begrudging admissions about the 737 Max ... the repeated false starts pertaining to "the 737 Max is almost ready to come back" ... the canceling of tons of orders for the plane ... Airbus making hay on Boeing's woes ... the botched space mission that had to be aborted last week ... and now today, CEO Dennis Muilenburg is out.

I had been very fortunate with my BA position. It wasn't anywhere near the top of my watch list when in Feb 2016, it was announced that the SEC would be looking into the company for accounting issues. That drove the already-low price of the stock down near 100, and I thought it was too good a value to ignore; I bought my stake at 115. I held it through the start of the 737 Max stuff but decided in March to take my profits, selling around 390.

It's now at 328, more than 100 points off its all-time high. Frankly, the fact that it hasn't fallen even harder after all of its problems is pretty telling about the company's fundamental strength.

When I sold, I figured BA eventually would have true good news ... and when it happens, the price probably will recover and then some. But I was sick of the drama and I didn't really "need" it in my portfolio. (FWIW, my daughter bought her stake about the same time I did -- even better price, 110 -- and she hasn't sold hers.)

Not giving any advice about whether others should buy, sell or hold here, as I don't know anybody else's goals, risk tolerance levels, circumstances, etc.

The NYT story on the CEO yesterday was pretty brutal. 

I think this story on how the culture of the company went south when they moved their headquarters to Chicago was an interesting read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/

[MU82]

The NYT story on the CEO yesterday was pretty brutal. 

I think this story on how the culture of the company went south when they moved their headquarters to Chicago was an interesting read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/

That was a good read, Sultan, thanks for the link. I don't know that moving the corporate office necessarily hurt the company, but it's certainly an interesting topic.

[MU82]

News isn't all bad for the failed Boeing CEO:

He will receive a severance package of $40M and an $800K annual pension ... so at least he'll be able to feed Latrell Sprewell's family.

[JWags85]

News isn't all bad for the failed Boeing CEO:

He will receive a severance package of $40M and an $800K annual pension ... so at least he'll be able to feed Latrell Sprewell's family.

Did he fail though?  This is certainly a scandal and a black eye for the company, but if you look at the financial performance of BA during his tenure, he was a massive success.
When he took over as CEO in mid 2015 and then became chairman in early 2016, the stock price vascillated in the 125-150 range.  It ran up to 450 recently, and even now after a hefty haircut, its still more than doubled in less than 5 years in charge.

Revenue's were up, but more significantly, Net Income doubled in less than 4 years and EBITDA is up 50+%. 

That says to me he was an effective and successful CEO who got greedy and arrogant and made a major blunder that led to his downfall.  He was also president leading up to his promotion and head of a major division prior to that, so its not like he just fell into a plum situation like Tyronne Lue.

[Cheeks]

The NYT story on the CEO yesterday was pretty brutal. 

I think this story on how the culture of the company went south when they moved their headquarters to Chicago was an interesting read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/

Yup, finance driven decisions can be good, but also have the ability to suck the life out of a company.  Been there, done that...living it now.

[Cheeks]

Did he fail though?  This is certainly a scandal and a black eye for the company, but if you look at the financial performance of BA during his tenure, he was a massive success.
When he took over as CEO in mid 2015 and then became chairman in early 2016, the stock price vascillated in the 125-150 range.  It ran up to 450 recently, and even now after a hefty haircut, its still more than doubled in less than 5 years in charge.

Revenue's were up, but more significantly, Net Income doubled in less than 4 years and EBITDA is up 50+%. 

That says to me he was an effective and successful CEO who got greedy and arrogant and made a major blunder that led to his downfall.  He was also president leading up to his promotion and head of a major division prior to that, so its not like he just fell into a plum situation like Tyronne Lue.

A lot of companies stocks rose after late 2016.  Sometimes short term gains that furt the company long term aren’t recognized by management in their ivory tower.

[MU82]

Did he fail though?  This is certainly a scandal and a black eye for the company, but if you look at the financial performance of BA during his tenure, he was a massive success.
When he took over as CEO in mid 2015 and then became chairman in early 2016, the stock price vascillated in the 125-150 range.  It ran up to 450 recently, and even now after a hefty haircut, its still more than doubled in less than 5 years in charge.

Revenue's were up, but more significantly, Net Income doubled in less than 4 years and EBITDA is up 50+%. 

That says to me he was an effective and successful CEO who got greedy and arrogant and made a major blunder that led to his downfall.  He was also president leading up to his promotion and head of a major division prior to that, so its not like he just fell into a plum situation like Tyronne Lue.

His company had both successes and failures under his watch. This last failure resulted in hundreds of dead human beings, refusal to accept responsibility for the tragedy until he could no longer get away with the lie, and fundamentally poor response to the travesty. This last year-plus under him, his company lost market share to Airbus, in addition to reputation and goodwill.

I am an optimist who tends to see the glass as half-full more times than not. As both an observer and former Boeing shareholder, it is very difficult for me to see this particular glass as anything but half-empty.

Having said that, I will repeat what I said earlier: Under new management, once the 737 Max problem does finally get solved, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boeing reach new heights. Of course, a recession would hurt that very cyclical industry more than many, but eventually they will be OK.

Still a $40M golden parachute and $800K annually for life for one who oversaw the horrors that guy did ... well ... nobody said life was fair.

[JWags85]

His company had both successes and failures under his watch. This last failure resulted in hundreds of dead human beings, refusal to accept responsibility for the tragedy until he could no longer get away with the lie, and fundamentally poor response to the travesty. This last year-plus under him, his company lost market share to Airbus, in addition to reputation and goodwill.

I am an optimist who tends to see the glass as half-full more times than not. As both an observer and former Boeing shareholder, it is very difficult for me to see this particular glass as anything but half-empty.

Having said that, I will repeat what I said earlier: Under new management, once the 737 Max problem does finally get solved, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boeing reach new heights. Of course, a recession would hurt that very cyclical industry more than many, but eventually they will be OK.

Still a $40M golden parachute and $800K annually for life for one who oversaw the horrors that guy did ... well ... nobody said life was fair.

I honestly think his failures are of a moral and human interest nature than a business one.  And I know you're not being purposefully dramatic, but I think speaking to any large loss of goodwill for Boeing is exaggerated.  Are airline and passengers wary and evasive when it comes to the 737 MAX?  Absolutely.  Is this spreading to other Boeing jets and models?  In my experience and reading, no.  In fact, many airlines halting their MAX orders are swapping to other Boeing models.  Thats near term.  Longer term, we've all learned how quickly things are forgotten.  Not saying its right, but in 2021-2022, nobody is going to be side eying Boeing from a commercial or stock standpoint as a result of this.  Airbus gained market share because their Neo product, that competes with the MAX, had no issues.  So in a 2 horse race, if one horse is down on the track with a broken leg, the other horse will easily win even if its a donkey.

In a court of ethics and human sense, Muilenburg has no leg to stand on.  But when it comes to payouts based on financial performance, he has more in common with the aging CEO put out to pasture than the one who has a golden parachute despite running the company into the ground/bankruptcy.  In fact, the notion that BA will be able to rebound and succeed again in short order once appropriate heads have rolled, is a testament to the work the management team had done the last 4 years.

I'm not a shareholder, im not a fan of his, and I think their handling of this whole thing has been shameful and unrepresentative of one of the fine, best in class American companies.  But a ton of money was made, legitimately and without drama, before this all happened, and thus I still understand why payouts wouldn't be withheld from a viewpoint of shareholder expectations and returns being met.

[MU82]

I honestly think his failures are of a moral and human interest nature than a business one.  And I know you're not being purposefully dramatic, but I think speaking to any large loss of goodwill for Boeing is exaggerated.  Are airline and passengers wary and evasive when it comes to the 737 MAX?  Absolutely.  Is this spreading to other Boeing jets and models?  In my experience and reading, no.  In fact, many airlines halting their MAX orders are swapping to other Boeing models.  Thats near term.  Longer term, we've all learned how quickly things are forgotten.  Not saying its right, but in 2021-2022, nobody is going to be side eying Boeing from a commercial or stock standpoint as a result of this.  Airbus gained market share because their Neo product, that competes with the MAX, had no issues.  So in a 2 horse race, if one horse is down on the track with a broken leg, the other horse will easily win even if its a donkey.

In a court of ethics and human sense, Muilenburg has no leg to stand on.  But when it comes to payouts based on financial performance, he has more in common with the aging CEO put out to pasture than the one who has a golden parachute despite running the company into the ground/bankruptcy.  In fact, the notion that BA will be able to rebound and succeed again in short order once appropriate heads have rolled, is a testament to the work the management team had done the last 4 years.

I'm not a shareholder, im not a fan of his, and I think their handling of this whole thing has been shameful and unrepresentative of one of the fine, best in class American companies.  But a ton of money was made, legitimately and without drama, before this all happened, and thus I still understand why payouts wouldn't be withheld from a viewpoint of shareholder expectations and returns being met.

Interesting take, and we agree on much. Thanks for the discussion.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I agree with your take 82, I don't think sentiment has bottomed on BA yet.  If the share price falls under $300 I might be interested enough to take a deeper dive.

On the other hand, GE seems to me to have finally cleared enough rubble away to have a path forward.  It might still be rocky and uneven at times, but I think the worm has turned there.

[Cheeks]

Merril Lynch investment president believes another 20% growth in stock market for 2020.

[Elonsmusk]

AQST has a lot going for them, and is a breakout candidate for 2020.

[Cheeks]

CITI now saying 90% chance stock markets will perform higher in 2020.  That will make some folks cringe....half of millennials sitting on the sidelines.

https://apple.news/AnH6Buiu6QpeIj3vxfHjJGQ

https://apple.news/ATBGDIMvaTt2mrt3WoYbdOA

[MU82]

Apple stock hit $300 for the first time!

[SoCalEagle]

Somebody told me it was dead money at $92 per share. 

Glad I didn't listen to him. 

[Benny B]

Despite my sentiment on cyclicals, I increased my position in MU by 20% this morning, with ultimate goal to double the position over the next few weeks.  The head and shoulders everyone was portending seems to be turning into the "Made 3pt" signal.

Going back to the drop in early March (which includes the early summer Hiroshima), the regression line is still tracking upward at a +30 slope.

I've been long MU for a few years now; before the tariffs, it was on its way to 80... and that was before the buyback was announced.  If the China thing advances beyond #donedeal in the next 12 months (i.e. prior to the election), my guess is that the floodgates are going to open up on MU.

MU rah-rah, MU rah-rah-rah-rah-rah.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

MU rah-rah, MU rah-rah-rah-rah-rah.

Nice call, congrats.

Wait, is that action strictly on an analyst upgrade?

[Jay Bee]

Who’s playing a nifty strategy with AYX?

open October 30... $92.39
Today.. $110.86

20% proper

[Benny B]

Nice call, congrats.

Wait, is that action strictly on an analyst upgrade?

I don't know for certain that it's tied to the analyst's upgrade, but there's a lot of buzz around CES right now in the DRAM space.  MU also released an announcement after-hours yesterday on their DDR5 chip, which itself is a significant innovation, but what I think caught people off-guard is the realization that there's more hardware supporting DDR5 than originally suspected, which seems to hint towards accelerated adoption.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I don't know for certain that it's tied to the analyst's upgrade, but there's a lot of buzz around CES right now in the DRAM space.  MU also released an announcement after-hours yesterday on their DDR5 chip, which itself is a significant innovation, but what I think caught people off-guard is the realization that there's more hardware supporting DDR5 than originally suspected, which seems to hint towards accelerated adoption.

I'm seeing that the upgrade was coupled with a better than expected projection from Microchip (though still a -4% growth forecast rather than -5%, so not exactly rosy).

Welp, I bought 1/24 56 strike puts at the end of the day.  I have a feeling I could be on the short end in early trading tomorrow but hoping for a little very short term revision to the mean/profit taking on the pop.  Hope to close it out in the next day or two, certainly by Friday.  The worst I can do is a 100% loss in 16 days.

[Benny B]

I'm seeing that the upgrade was coupled with a better than expected projection from Microchip (though still a -4% growth forecast rather than -5%, so not exactly rosy).

Welp, I bought 1/24 56 strike puts at the end of the day.  I have a feeling I could be on the short end in early trading tomorrow but hoping for a little very short term revision to the mean/profit taking on the pop.  Hope to close it out in the next day or two, certainly by Friday.  The worst I can do is a 100% loss in 16 days.

Not a bad buy at ~.18 

MU has been no stranger to volatility from day to day.  Neither has Micron.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Not a bad buy at ~.18 

MU has been no stranger to volatility from day to day.  Neither has Micron.

Just closed the position with a 20.6% gain.

MU looks intriguing longer term, I might consider opening a small long position.  Good luck with it!