Investing Thread

[JWags85]

I generally agree, but the current market is not at all about fundamentals, or promise, it's about vibe. The vibe is strong with SpaceX so if you can get in on the IPO (a friend is able) you will make big money, and can dump before the Vibe wears off if you want.

I don't really disagree about vibe trading.  But I would caveat that with the fact that it's been that way for a solid decade plus.  Well before whatever you feel this administrations impact was on the market, and well before peak Musk-related polarization (though Tesla was one of the bannerman stocks for that market performance evolution).

 The pre-profit (and then even more wild, pre-revenue) valuations for tech companies that could scale quickly, mostly due to no large scale manufacturing needs, changed the way future earnings were projected, made math way fuzzier, and opened up a lot of room for the "VIBES" cause you could project user growth so many different ways and metrics that were being altered on the fly.  That then expanded to almost any company pushing into a new realm of tech or market opened up by tech, even if manufacturing was needed.  So you saw it start to happen to semis, battery tech, etc...

Around the same time (arguably 4-5 years earlier), you saw a profound shift in how quarterly earnings were evaluated. Actual earnings beats or misses were less important than guidance.  You'd see a company post great earnings but have a tepid or negative stock price response due to weak guidance moving forward, or vice versa.  While it's not as nebulous as projecting huge growth on potential vaporware for companies losing money quarter after quarter, it's still basing stock/market sentiment on growth optimism, generous projections, and, some would say, VIBES, as opposed to hard numerical metrics and data that was always the traditional method.

It's obviously not uniformly bad or broken across the board, but like every tradable market going back hundreds of years, trends or herd behavior gets out of control and things get very out of whack.

As for SpaceX, I was very much speaking to buying post-IPO.  If you can still get in pre-IPO, there is definitely upside to be had, especially given the buzz and hype.  How much does definitely depend on what the final offering valuation is