Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

I've done quite well with AAPL since '19

Should I sell NFLX?

This is the question I ask myself:

If you had money today, would you buy NFLX? If not, time to exit the position.

[MuggsyB]

This is the question I ask myself:

If you had money today, would you buy NFLX? If not, time to exit the position.

I've been torn the last few years.  That said, I bought it in 2015. 

I really would prefer not to pay the  taxes if I don't need that chunk of change....I dunno.  Will it totally crash? 

[Skatastrophy]

I've been torn the last few years.  That said, I bought it in 2015. 

I really would prefer not to pay the  taxes if I don't need that chunk of change....I dunno.  Will it totally crash? 

Paying taxes is a privilege. Better than harvesting losses.

[MuggsyB]

Paying taxes is a privilege. Better than harvesting losses.

Ya...but the losses are pretty miniscule compared to my gains.  But your original question is correct.  Would I/you buy it today?

[MU82]

Muggs: If it's gonna go up, buy more; if it's gonna fall, sell.

You're welcome!

[Skatastrophy]

Ya...but the losses are pretty miniscule compared to my gains.  But your original question is correct.  Would I/you buy it today?

Yep. For example, I still hold Cloudflare since their IPO.

I've taken profits a few times over the years now. My current holdings are up over 10x, but I don't feel bad holding them for a few reasons

* It's not that much money anymore compared to my portfolio
* I believe in the business
* I believe in the CEO
* Anthropic asked the CEO to take a board seat (Matt Prince declined), so the hot up-and-coming peers respect the biz

I still consider buying Cloudflare when it dips, but I stop myself.

[MuggsyB]

Yep. For example, I still hold Cloudflare since their IPO.

I've taken profits a few times over the years now. My current holdings are up over 10x, but I don't feel bad holding them for a few reasons

* It's not that much money anymore compared to my portfolio
* I believe in the business
* I believe in the CEO
* Anthropic asked the CEO to take a board seat (Matt Prince declined), so the hot up-and-coming peers respect the biz

I still consider buying Cloudflare when it dips, but I stop myself.

I'm a long-term investor.  I've reinvested divs in my stocks of course, but I really haven't bought stocks over the past 15 years on dips.  As far as NFLX?  Let's just say it's been an extraordinary investment, and while it's down like 30% from a year ago, that's a pinprick from what it was when I bought it.

If I was closer to retirement I think some these decisions would be easier, or if I knew when I was gonna kick the bucket, but I'll likely be around for a bit and work another 20+ years.  Ergo my basic thought process is not to sell, unless I really need the coin, or I see something terribly wrong with the company.  Perhaps I'm naive and should be more concerned with a market collapse, but as for now this is where my head is at. 

[Uncle Rico]

I've done quite well with AAPL since '19

Should I sell NFLX?

Yes

[MUeng]

Anyone a SpaceX buyer after all the financial reporting this week? Not impressive numbers, total growth story. I dunno, maybe throw some money at it just in case kind of play?

[MU82]

Anyone a SpaceX buyer after all the financial reporting this week? Not impressive numbers, total growth story. I dunno, maybe throw some money at it just in case kind of play?

It's not yet a publicly traded company.

[MUeng]

It's not yet a publicly traded company.

right, but will likely be listed soon. Plays on the FOMO a little bit. The valuation just seems so high for what the business is generating

[MU82]

right, but will likely be listed soon. Plays on the FOMO a little bit. The valuation just seems so high for what the business is generating

Yes to all of that. I won't be buying because I'm not a speculator or trader, but, as with all stocks, there's money to be made one way or the other.

Of course, most of the money is made by the insiders and other assorted bazillionaires.

[Skatastrophy]

Anyone a SpaceX buyer after all the financial reporting this week? Not impressive numbers, total growth story. I dunno, maybe throw some money at it just in case kind of play?

No I only buy shares of companies that have CEOs that I believe in fully. SpaceX CEO has a pretty obvious drug abuse problem, impulse control issues, and questionable judgment. I don't think the board has enough power over SpaceX to wrest control of the company when crap inevitably hits the fan. 

Beyond that, I only buy companies in industries I'm a subject matter expert in. Space stuff is outside of my knowledge bubble. 

SpaceX will be included in indexes, though, so I'll have some exposure no matter what. 

[MuggsyB]

Yes

It's down 1% today?  WTF????!! 

[Shaka Shart]

No I only buy shares of companies that have CEOs that I believe in fully. SpaceX CEO has a pretty obvious drug abuse problem, impulse control issues, and questionable judgment. I don't think the board has enough power over SpaceX to wrest control of the company when crap inevitably hits the fan.

Beyond that, I only buy companies in industries I'm a subject matter expert in. Space stuff is outside of my knowledge bubble.

SpaceX will be included in indexes, though, so I'll have some exposure no matter what.

The ceo controlling the entire board, voting shares with no ability to change that,  and being unfireable with a history of nonsensical strategy pivoting is cause for concern.

Will it probably debut as high valued? Probably. The space and starlink businesses are genuinely strong and likely significantly profit generating long term.

The massive spend on r&d/capex on XAI and X which no real glide path to profitability it seems, that's massively concerning.

[Uncle Rico]

It's down 1% today?  WTF????!! 

You don't have the stomach for investing.  Please bury your money in a coffee can in your backyard

[MuggsyB]

You don't have the stomach for investing.  Please bury your money in a coffee can in your backyard

I do but long-term. 

I'm well aware gambling doesn't suit my temperament. 

[JWags85]

The ceo controlling the entire board, voting shares with no ability to change that,  and being unfireable with a history of nonsensical strategy pivoting is cause for concern.

Will it probably debut as high valued? Probably. The space and starlink businesses are genuinely strong and likely significantly profit generating long term.

The massive spend on r&d/capex on XAI and X which no real glide path to profitability it seems, that's massively concerning.

I don't have the same distaste for Musk as some, but in a vaccuum I can completely understand the worries about a mercurial and unpredictable CEO.

That being said, talking to my father and a few friends about it the last week or so, Ive been fairly firm about a "stay away" mentality.  And honestly, its not dissimilar to the concerns I mentioned about Bloom Energy earlier in the thread.  Bloom was overheated from a big run up whereas SpaceX is going to IPO VERY overvalued.  Even if not overvalued, its gonna be at the top end of its fair/market value at this point due to hype and buzz.  Even if you love both of them, I just don't know how much upside there is for awhile given the market profiles of each.

If you think SpaceX has huge potential value and untapped upside due to a number of its revenue streams (which I don't necessarily disagree with to some extent) there are going to be better chances to buy it in the next year or two.  I just don't see it IPO'ing at say 200, running to 250+ and never looking back.

I can see the interest or appeal of swing trading it for the first few months, its gonna be wild, but for an investment, buy and hold for the medium to long term (as is the general method of most of this thread) too much froth for awhile.

[forgetful]

I don't have the same distaste for Musk as some, but in a vaccuum I can completely understand the worries about a mercurial and unpredictable CEO.

That being said, talking to my father and a few friends about it the last week or so, Ive been fairly firm about a "stay away" mentality.  And honestly, its not dissimilar to the concerns I mentioned about Bloom Energy earlier in the thread.  Bloom was overheated from a big run up whereas SpaceX is going to IPO VERY overvalued.  Even if not overvalued, its gonna be at the top end of its fair/market value at this point due to hype and buzz.  Even if you love both of them, I just don't know how much upside there is for awhile given the market profiles of each.

If you think SpaceX has huge potential value and untapped upside due to a number of its revenue streams (which I don't necessarily disagree with to some extent) there are going to be better chances to buy it in the next year or two.  I just don't see it IPO'ing at say 200, running to 250+ and never looking back.

I can see the interest or appeal of swing trading it for the first few months, its gonna be wild, but for an investment, buy and hold for the medium to long term (as is the general method of most of this thread) too much froth for awhile.

I generally agree, but the current market is not at all about fundamentals, or promise, it's about vibe. The vibe is strong with SpaceX so if you can get in on the IPO (a friend is able) you will make big money, and can dump before the Vibe wears off if you want.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I generally agree, but the current market is not at all about fundamentals, or promise, it's about vibe. The vibe is strong with SpaceX so if you can get in on the IPO (a friend is able) you will make big money, and can dump before the Vibe wears off if you want.

I think that depends on where it eventually prices at coming out. At $2B, no. At $1B, probably.

I do agree on the fact the market is trading on vibes, especially so anything Musk is involved in.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Talk about a K-shaped economy

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/consumer-sentiment-hits-record-low-as-high-gas-prices-drag-on-americans-outlooks-143903199.html

"The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer sentiment declined to 44.8 for the month of May, marking the lowest level on record. Sentiment fell further from April's final reading of 49.8 and was "just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022," Joanne Hsu, the survey's director, said in the release.

Americans are feeling worse about the economy now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial crisis, and following the 9/11 attacks."

Between this and the fact that 93% of the gains in the S&P 500 are tied up in AI, I remain very bearish.

[MU82]

Talk about a K-shaped economy

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/consumer-sentiment-hits-record-low-as-high-gas-prices-drag-on-americans-outlooks-143903199.html

"The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer sentiment declined to 44.8 for the month of May, marking the lowest level on record. Sentiment fell further from April's final reading of 49.8 and was "just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022," Joanne Hsu, the survey's director, said in the release.

Americans are feeling worse about the economy now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial crisis, and following the 9/11 attacks."

Between this and the fact that 93% of the gains in the S&P 500 are tied up in AI, I remain very bearish.

Yup. And yet stock indexes keep setting new highs. Despite all that, and despite this ...

[The Sultan]

Massive layoffs always make the news, but they don't have much impact on the overall unemployment rate, which is still quite low. We will see how much inflation continues to have an impact, but the overall economy isn't terrible by any means.

[MU82]

The economy is quite bad for those not in the top 20%.

Massive layoffs always make the news, but they don't have much impact on the overall unemployment rate, which is still quite low. We will see how much inflation continues to have an impact, but the overall economy isn't terrible by any means.

Agree about the "overall economy," but the economy is quite bad for those not in the top 20%.

[The Sultan]

The economy is quite bad for those not in the top 20%.
Agree about the "overall economy," but the economy is quite bad for those not in the top 20%.

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