Investing Thread

[rocky_warrior]

No Arbys?

That's what I've been missing.  Thanks.

Only one question Rocky-do you know how to fold a fitted sheet?

Absolutely, I'm not even sure how people struggle with that. 

[Uncle Rico]

That's what I've been missing.  Thanks.

Absolutely, I'm not even sure how people struggle with that. 

Have you read scoop?

[21Jumpstreet]

Raise our own chickens. Grow our own food.

Easy peasy.

The more we decentralize the food system the better, safer it will be for everyone. Subsidies were well intended but perhaps a look at changing that system could be a benefit. Could also reduce prices in the end.

[Shaka Shart]

I wasn't monitoring, so I'll just issue a politics warning this time:  be better (or be banned)

As for investing, you're all a bunch of wimps.  It's not even bad yet, the real pain is coming.

What are you, my proctologist?

[Hards Alumni]

I am all for the US to be more self-sustainable with its farming, but growing huge volumes of staples and inexpensively getting them to world markets is something we do better than almost everyone.

It's not like these farmers from Iowa and Illinois can move away from corn and start growing strawberries or something. At least not easily.

Precisely.  They've invested hundreds of thousands of dollars (on the low end) and more likely millions on equipment, implements, storage, seed, and transportation.

The farmers know it.  The people in charge don't know their ass from a hole in the ground is the real problem.  Farming is an abstraction for them, not an insanely optimized high tech industry... which is really is.

I was fascinated when I got on a kick of videos about the subject.

[Scoop Snoop]

Precisely.  They've invested hundreds of thousands of dollars (on the low end) and more likely millions on equipment, implements, storage, seed, and transportation.

The farmers know it.  The people in charge don't know their ass from a hole in the ground is the real problem.  Farming is an abstraction for them, not an insanely optimized high tech industry... which is really is.

I was fascinated when I got on a kick of videos about the subject.

Agree Big Time. Twenty years ago, I learned about a farmer who bought a large tractor for about $75K. No idea what it would cost today. Tractors are notoriously expensive to keep running, with parts breaking and hydraulic systems needing maintenance and repair. Local climate, soil type, ability of the soil to hold water, contour of the land, and extensive knowledge of the crop being grown are all factors in farming.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Precisely.  They've invested hundreds of thousands of dollars (on the low end) and more likely millions on equipment, implements, storage, seed, and transportation.

The farmers know it.  The people in charge don't know their ass from a hole in the ground is the real problem.  Farming is an abstraction for them, not an insanely optimized high tech industry... which is really is.

I was fascinated when I got on a kick of videos about the subject.

Nailed it.  One side of my family back in NE are farmers.  They farm around 1,000 acres and have Quonset sheds with millions of dollars worth of equipment, which would be next to useless to try to farm anything other than corn and soybeans.

[Hards Alumni]

Nailed it.  One side of my family back in NE are farmers.  They farm around 1,000 acres and have Quonset sheds with millions of dollars worth of equipment, which would be next to useless to try to farm anything other than corn and soybeans.

Yep.  And when I say optimized I mean EVERY inch of that land is seeded and sprayed using tractors with GPS that hit every spot.  Moving from 95% of your land used to 99% used is a large chunk of money and nearly impossible to do without the current tech... which is expensive.

[The Sultan]

Precisely.  They've invested hundreds of thousands of dollars (on the low end) and more likely millions on equipment, implements, storage, seed, and transportation.

The farmers know it.  The people in charge don't know their ass from a hole in the ground is the real problem.  Farming is an abstraction for them, not an insanely optimized high tech industry... which is really is.

I was fascinated when I got on a kick of videos about the subject.

These days John Deere considers itself as much a tech company as a manufacturer.

[MU82]

Precisely.  They've invested hundreds of thousands of dollars (on the low end) and more likely millions on equipment, implements, storage, seed, and transportation.

The farmers know it.  The people in charge don't know their ass from a hole in the ground is the real problem.  Farming is an abstraction for them, not an insanely optimized high tech industry... which is really is.

I was fascinated when I got on a kick of videos about the subject.

Yep. The "solution" will be to broaden welfare for farmers further hurt by new and/or increased tariffs. Another burden on taxpayers, even as inflation increases.

[Hards Alumni]

Yep. The "solution" will be to broaden welfare for farmers further hurt by new and/or increased tariffs. Another burden on taxpayers, even as inflation increases.

This is the last I'll speak about this because of where it is headed.

I disagree.  The small farmers will be forced to fail and their land will be purchased by larger company farms.

[MU82]

This is the last I'll speak about this because of where it is headed.

I disagree.  The small farmers will be forced to fail and their land will be purchased by larger company farms.

I think both things will happen. And you're right about where this is headed, so I'll join you on the sidelines (at least for now).

[ATL MU Warrior]

I actually just sold a small (80 acres) section of farmland in NE that I inherited 30+ years ago. It sold to a local family farming operation (father and sons) who owned quite a bit of the land immediately surrounding my 80 acres, which I was happy to learn.

My brother (co-owner) who lives in NE attended the auction and was giving me the play by play. I asked him jokingly if Bill Gates or Ted Turner were there, as if they would be interested in a measly 80 acres.

Happily, there were several bidders and the land sold for ~10% higher than appraised value, so at least in this circumstance the family farmers are doing quite well.

[jesmu84]

This is the last I'll speak about this because of where it is headed.

I disagree.  The small farmers will be forced to fail and their land will be purchased by larger company farms.

Agreed.

Any recession/depression will further widen the already unstable wealth inequality gap by creating a situation for the wealthy to own more assets/capital

[Skatastrophy]

I actually just sold a small (80 acres) section of farmland in NE that I inherited 30+ years ago. It sold to a local family farming operation (father and sons) who owned quite a bit of the land immediately surrounding my 80 acres, which I was happy to learn.

My brother (co-owner) who lives in NE attended the auction and was giving me the play by play. I asked him jokingly if Bill Gates or Ted Turner were there, as if they would be interested in a measly 80 acres.

Happily, there were several bidders and the land sold for ~10% higher than appraised value, so at least in this circumstance the family farmers are doing quite well.

In Illinois there's usually 2-3 families per county that own the majority of acreage. Not really a family farm at that point anymore.

[MU82]

Great earnings report for AVGO; up 12% after hours.

Good sales results for COST but slight earnings miss; down about 1% AH.

[Skatastrophy]

Great earnings report for AVGO; up 12% after hours.

Good sales results for COST but slight earnings miss; down about 1% AH.

It doesn't matter how you do, it matters how you do vs growth expectations.

For years, I had insider information about earnings details of a Fortune 50 company ~ two weeks before earnings. I was consistently wrong about my guess as to the market's reaction to those earnings. I was wrong at a high enough rate that I think the best bet (had I divulged the info) would have been to fade my guess about market movement.

One of the many reasons I buy and hold.

[rocky_warrior]

I bought them during their IPO as I was living out west and saw first hand the cult like following throughout the region they have and heard about their expansion plans. We've put in a sell order if it drops to 2x what we bought it at but are willing to rid it out for a while to see if it goes higher.

You might be selling now, but I just bought back half of the shares I sold at 84.80.  BROS may (probably will) slip more, but not worried long term.  A 30% sale seemed like a good deal

[MU82]

You might be selling now, but I just bought back half of the shares I sold at 84.80.  BROS may (probably will) slip more, but not worried long term.  A 30% sale seemed like a good deal

With a forward P/E ratio over 100, what could go wrong?

Seriously, I know others who have done well with BROS, and I wish you good fortune.

[rocky_warrior]

With a forward P/E ratio over 100, what could go wrong?

Seriously, I know others who have done well with BROS, and I wish you good fortune.

Fortunately, I'm playing with all profit at this point, and they're a great growth story.  And still in the money with my purchase this morning (fortunately!).


The rest of the market though, woof!  Talk about panic selling. 

[MU82]

A bad combination of tariff fears, recession fears, consumer fears, and some reversion to mean for stocks that had been overpriced.

Meanwhile, investors in boring, everyday, blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks have been living the good life lately.

[rocky_warrior]

A bad combination of tariff fears, recession fears, consumer fears, and some reversion to mean for stocks that had been overpriced.

Meanwhile, investors in boring, everyday, blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks have been living the good life lately.

Yeah, my dividend fund is certainly *less* affected. 

But, I pretty much preach S&P index funds, and (even after the past couple weeks) with annualized gains of >21% over the past 2 years, it's hard to complain about any pullback here.

[Jockey]

Humming along. If this is what happens in just 7 weeks - look out.

[jesmu84]

Humming along. If this is what happens in just 7 weeks - look out.

Why is a recession bad?

Prime time for already wealthy to gobble up more assets

[Jockey]

Why is a recession bad?

Prime time for already wealthy to gobble up more assets

Yeah, they love disasters. Look at what they do whenever a hurricane or other disaster hits.