Investing Thread

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I was reading one of my trade magazines this morning (Metal Center News) and it mentioned 53% of CEOs expect a recession to start sometime in 2025. 
The PMI (Purchasing Manufacturing Index) was barely under 50% (49% for last 2 months) meaning manufacturing "contracted".

I was discussing with my German colleagues today and they indicated troubles are starting with the Chinese as they have so much excess steel and stainless steel that they are dumping in the EU, UK and Turkey and actions against may be forthcoming.

Sounds like a bumpy investing year ahead.

[Uncle Rico]

I was reading one of my trade magazines this morning (Metal Center News) and it mentioned 53% of CEOs expect a recession to start sometime in 2025. 
The PMI (Purchasing Manufacturing Index) was barely under 50% (49% for last 2 months) meaning manufacturing "contracted".

I was discussing with my German colleagues today and they indicated troubles are starting with the Chinese as they have so much excess steel and stainless steel that they are dumping in the EU, UK and Turkey and actions against may be forthcoming.

Sounds like a bumpy investing year ahead.

Finally, the economy will tank like Goose predicted the last 4 years

[rocky_warrior]

Finally, the economy will tank like Goose predicted the last 4 years

It's hard to eliminate lots of jobs and not have some economic effects.

[Uncle Rico]

It's hard to eliminate lots jobs and not have some economic effects.

Sounds like you think math is real

[rocky_warrior]

Sounds like you think math is real

I think math is fun.  Does that count?

[The Sultan]

Finally, the economy will tank like Goose predicted the last 4 years

Of course its after his changed his prediction...

The greatest economy in the history of the world is on the horizon.

He's the George Costanza of economic forecasting.

[Uncle Rico]

I think math is fun.  Does that count?

Ain't no time for math anymore

[rocky_warrior]

Ain't no time for math anymore

Computers still allowed, since they just add binary bits?

[Uncle Rico]

Computers still allowed, since they just add binary bits?

Depends what they say

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

It's hard to eliminate lots jobs and not have some economic effects.

Yep.

[rocky_warrior]

Yep.

I'm loading up on the constitutional law ETF though.  Profits should be through the roof

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I'm loading up on the constitutional law ETF though.  Profits should be through the roof

I had to Google that!
Investopedia had a good write up on ETFs.

[rocky_warrior]

I had to Google that!
Investopedia had a good write up on ETFs.

Hah, I'm big into ETFs.  Some lawyers are definitely profiting right now, I haven't actually found a way to invest in that 🙂

[TSmith34, Inc.]

From the WSJ:

Close to 48% expect stock prices to fall over the next six months, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey. Trade-war threats, regulatory upheaval, stubborn inflation and dwindling expectations for additional interest-rate cuts have turned some bulls into bears.

And yet:

Global Fund Managers Cut Cash Holdings to 15-Year Low, Survey Finds

Bullish investors are running down their cash stockpiles.

Cash levels are at 3.5% of assets under management, the lowest ratio since 2010, according to Bank of America's latest survey of global fund managers.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-02-18-2025/card/global-fund-managers-cut-cash-holdings-to-15-year-low-survey-finds-1NWbP20iDokBES1G27Ln

[Skatastrophy]

And yet:

Global Fund Managers Cut Cash Holdings to 15-Year Low, Survey Finds

Bullish investors are running down their cash stockpiles.

Cash levels are at 3.5% of assets under management, the lowest ratio since 2010, according to Bank of America's latest survey of global fund managers.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-02-18-2025/card/global-fund-managers-cut-cash-holdings-to-15-year-low-survey-finds-1NWbP20iDokBES1G27Ln

It's dumb to hold USD right now with inflation caused by the trade war.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

It's dumb to hold USD right now with inflation caused by the trade war.

Perhaps, it's just that very low cash stockpiles are typically a bad sign for market. Not much wood to feed into the furnace.

I seldom hold a ton of cash, but I've consciously been moving in that direction with so much market uncertainty. My cash is still yielding 4.40%, so I'm taking some risk off in exchange.

[taylor999]

I think real estate is one of the best investments you can make, if not the best. Property values generally appreciate over time, giving you long-term security. Plus, owning a property can provide rental income or a valuable asset to sell later. It's a safer investment compared to stocks, especially in a stable market.

I personally invested in real estate a couple of years ago and bought a home in Breckenridge. I worked with Breckenridge agents with Summit Colorado Realty, and they did a great job. Their team helped me find the perfect place and made the whole process really easy, without too much headache.

[rocky_warrior]

I think real estate is one of the best investments you can make, if not the best. Property values generally appreciate over time, giving you long-term security. Plus, owning a property can provide rental income or a valuable asset to sell later. It's a safer investment compared to stocks, especially in a stable market.

As a guy that's made some good money in real estate, I don't really disagree.  But you have to be very good at buying, smart upgrades / improvements, renting, and selling.

Meanwhile, with all the effort I've put in over the past 20 years, I probably could have put all the money in an S&P index fund, reinvested dividends, and probably ended up similar, or even ahead, without any of the headaches.

If you're in it for the long term, the market is probably easier.

[Shaka Shart]

Perhaps, it's just that very low cash stockpiles are typically a bad sign for market. Not much wood to feed into the furnace.

I seldom hold a ton of cash, but I've consciously been moving in that direction with so much market uncertainty. My cash is still yielding 4.40%, so I'm taking some risk off in exchange.

If you don't mind me asking, where are you yielding 4.4% on cash

[Jockey]

If you don't mind me asking, where are you yielding 4.4% on cash

And why aren't you getting 5.4%?

[Hards Alumni]

If you don't mind me asking, where are you yielding 4.4% on cash

High yield savings account probably.

[MU82]

If you don't mind me asking, where are you yielding 4.4% on cash

I don't have any at 4.4%, but have something close ...

I have most of my cash in a Vanguard MMF that today is yielding 4.25% (https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vmfxx), as well as some in a Synchrony Bank account with a 4% APY.

Those are both good, safe alternatives to those who want to keep some cash. Schwab and Fidelity also have good MMF options, as do other brokerages.

[rocky_warrior]

I'm telling y'all... SJNK, pays over 7%, holds over 1100 corporate bonds to limit risk.

[Skatastrophy]

I have a lot of cash sitting in SPAXX earning 4% instead of my HYSA. Deciding whether to do a bathroom or leave the US for a few years.

[Jockey]

I don't have any at 4.4%, but have something close ...

I have most of my cash in a Vanguard MMF that today is yielding 4.25% (https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vmfxx), as well as some in a Synchrony Bank account with a 4% APY.

Those are both good, safe alternatives to those who want to keep some cash. Schwab and Fidelity also have good MMF options, as do other brokerages.

No annuities?