Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yep, there's that.

As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.

Aren't those more or less the same things? You have a CEO who doesn't have the maturity to control himself and is actively harming prospects for shareholders. Call him an a-hole or call him unstable, his behavior is a huge negative for the company.

If he had a real Board rather than a collection of sycophants that are beholden to him financially, they would act in the best interests of shareholders. But alas, they are Musk's lackeys. Shareholders beware.

[Uncle Rico]

Yep, there's that.

As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.

Go anti-woke, go broke

[Skatastrophy]

Yep, there's that.

As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.

I mean, that's why Musk got fired from x.com (cofinity) in 2000. He makes terrible decisions.

And now he's renamed Twitter to x.com... because he's an emotional mess. His politics are a manifestation of his mental issues. I would not trust him as an executive of my company. His sole redeeming quality is that he's wealthy.

[Pakuni]

Looks like Disney will remain woke.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/disney-defeats-activist-investor-nelson-peltz-in-proxy-fight-172400941.html

[forgetful]

Can some of the people more familiar with stock trading teach me a few things.

I don't want this to get in a debate/politics discussion, but am intrigued by the oddities of Truth Social going public.

I don't want to get into the weeds of the stock/company, but there are ~120M shares outstanding.

Of those, about 90M of the shares are owned by people involved in the founding (75%), all of which can't be traded for 6-months.

Looking at the trading volume, on at least 1-day, the volume was 55.6 M shares, which if I'm understanding things correctly, would be the equivalent of every share available for selling would have traded hands twice. On the lowest days, the volume is still 6M (or 20% of all possible shares).

1. Is that kind of activity normal.
2. If that type of volume is not normal, what does it mean.

I tried to do some of my own research and failed.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Can some of the people more familiar with stock trading teach me a few things.

I don't want this to get in a debate/politics discussion, but am intrigued by the oddities of Truth Social going public.

I don't want to get into the weeds of the stock/company, but there are ~120M shares outstanding.

Of those, about 90M of the shares are owned by people involved in the founding (75%), all of which can't be traded for 6-months.

Looking at the trading volume, on at least 1-day, the volume was 55.6 M shares, which if I'm understanding things correctly, would be the equivalent of every share available for selling would have traded hands twice. On the lowest days, the volume is still 6M (or 20% of all possible shares).

1. Is that kind of activity normal.
2. If that type of volume is not normal, what does it mean.

I tried to do some of my own research and failed.

It's not "normal", but there can certainly be stocks where the trading frenzy causes multiples of the float (shares available for trading) to be traded everyday.

That's certainly the case with DJT, it's the memeiest of memes stocks at the moment. Think AMC x Gamestop right now.

Fundamentally, run; run far away. It generated all of $4.5M in sales last year. In comparison, a single Walmart store rakes in about $1B per year.

Consider the Price-to-Sales ratio of others:
S&P 500 2.8
Apple 7.7
Nvidia 36.4
DJT 1781

So yeah, if a social media platform somehow jumps revenues 100x, its value is between AAPL and NVDA. Right.

Someone is going to be left holding the bag on this one. That said, it only takes one billionaire that wants to curry favor to funnel money into this to keep it afloat.

[JWags85]

It's not "normal", but there can certainly be stocks where the trading frenzy causes multiples of the float (shares available for trading) to be traded everyday.

That's certainly the case with DJT, it's the memeiest of memes stocks at the moment. Think AMC x Gamestop right now.

Fundamentally, run; run far away. It generated all of $4.5M in sales last year. In comparison, a single Walmart store rakes in about $1B per year.

Consider the Price-to-Sales ratio of others:
S&P 500 2.8
Apple 7.7
Nvidia 36.4
DJT 1781

So yeah, if a social media platform somehow jumps revenues 100x, its value is between AAPL and NVDA. Right.

Someone is going to be left holding the bag on this one. That said, it only takes one billionaire that wants to curry favor to funnel money into this to keep it afloat.

Agreed on all of it, for all intents and purposes, its a penny stock.  Its the kind of stuff you'd see in the dot com bubble where tech companies with a few million, hell a few hundred thousand, in revenue would go public and the price would fly all over the place.

And not just with Meme stocks, its very common for recently IPO'd stocks to flip large portions of their available float, especially if a good chunk is tied up.  Combine that with the buzz around it, and there ya go. 

As much as there is justifiable skepticism about anything in the DJT sphere, this doesn't raise any red flags.  But this is also always the danger with stocks like this, the fervor and chaos always dies down and suddenly people are holding a stock with mediocre fundamentals that is no longer whipping around or jumping double digit percentages a day.

Personally, the exposure of the annual revenues to me was amusing cause for all the IPO buzz, the media coverage, etc... they generate revenue pretty damn close to my company which is very much a small business and wouldn't generate any interest if it went public.

[forgetful]

Thank you both! Learned a few things. I knew to stick clear of it, but didn't know the term "float," and had no idea of how unusual such trading is.

My trading is incredibly vanilla.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Huh. Musk had this to say in a deposition re Twitter:

"I may have done more to financially impair the company than to help it, but I certainly I — I do not guide my posts by what is financially beneficial but what I believe is interesting or important or entertaining to the public.”

If I am holding equity (*cough* Fidelity *cough*) or even if I am holding a debt instrument and this is putting at risk the company having cash flow to service the debt, I am PISSED. The CEO in everything but name is unapologetically admitting he isn't operating the company to be financially successful, but instead is doing whatever amuses him.

[MU82]

Huh. Musk had this to say in a deposition re Twitter:

"I may have done more to financially impair the company than to help it, but I certainly I — I do not guide my posts by what is financially beneficial but what I believe is interesting or important or entertaining to the public.”

If I am holding equity (*cough* Fidelity *cough*) or even if I am holding a debt instrument and this is putting at risk the company having cash flow to service the debt, I am PISSED. The CEO in everything but name is unapologetically admitting he isn't operating the company to be financially successful, but instead is doing whatever amuses him.

As I have mentioned, I still have some TSLA stock, and I am not a very happy investor because the CEO is unstable and is too worried about social issues at the expense of his company. He has managed the company's finances terribly, especially since vastly overpaying for the social-media company he didn't even want.

I still think Tesla will be a winner long-term in great part because of all the non-car-company things it's involved in. But I of course am not certain, and the stock has been horrible for 3 years now.

[jesmu84]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-blackrock-among-bls-economist-184301611.html

Non-public info leaked to Wall Street

[Skatastrophy]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-blackrock-among-bls-economist-184301611.html

Non-public info leaked to Wall Street

Man our courts & regulatory agencies just don't have the appetite to punish the powerful.

It's part of the reason I buy and hold indexes. I can't win a zero sum game against these folks.

[Uncle Rico]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/small-time-investors-trump-truth-185507366.html

Suckers

[MU82]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/small-time-investors-trump-truth-185507366.html

Suckers

You've got it wrong, Unk. Dementia Don says the real "suckers" (and "losers") were the World War II soldiers who died for America.

[rocky_warrior]

You've got it wrong, Unk. Dementia Don says the real "suckers" (and "losers") were the World War II soldiers who died for America.

C'mon.  DJT is actually investing news (relevant or not), your commentary - not so much.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/small-time-investors-trump-truth-185507366.html

Suckers

As we've seen recently, retail investors can band together to keep meme stocks at artificially high levels for a relatively long time. And, in only takes one Prince Bonesaw or other global leader that wants to curry favor to use the stock as a vehicle to get or stay in Drumpf's good graces.

Based on fundamentals, the stock should be trading at < $1/share. Eventually it will track to it's true worth over time, but this could stay overinflated--it is just a question of how overinflated-- longer than a normal stock.

[Skatastrophy]

As we've seen recently, retail investors can band together to keep meme stocks at artificially high levels for a relatively long time. And, in only takes one Prince Bonesaw or other global leader that wants to curry favor to use the stock as a vehicle to get or stay in Drumpf's good graces.

Based on fundamentals, the stock should be trading at < $1/share. Eventually it will track to it's true worth over time, but this could stay overinflated--it is just a question of how overinflated-- longer than a normal stock.

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - keynes

No way am I betting against True Believers. I just root against them.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - keynes

No way am I betting against True Believers. I just root against them.

Issuing another 21M shares, stock down 16%.

[Skatastrophy]

Tesla cutting staff to become operationally efficient when they're valued as a growth company. Ruh roh

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Streaming, yeah that's the ticket.

[Skatastrophy]

Streaming/VOD is very cash intensive. IDK how they're going to make that work, it's not like they have a lot of cash on hand. Wildly successful Twitch (amazon acquired them for ~$1B) has never turned a profit. Youtube took many years to become profitable.

[forgetful]

Streaming/VOD is very cash intensive. IDK how they're going to make that work, it's not like they have a lot of cash on hand. Wildly successful Twitch (amazon acquired them for ~$1B) has never turned a profit. Youtube took many years to become profitable.

Sounds like a good way for a company struggling with cash flow, to burn through cash even faster.

[MU82]

Streaming/VOD is very cash intensive. IDK how they're going to make that work.

They're not.

[rocket surgeon]

gee, speaking of dictators, this looks to be kind of dictatorship-like


    https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/ncla-unleashes-lawsuit-to-take-down-sec-s-illegal-mass-data-collection-machine-4fd96800

  but not weekend at Bernie's sec...noooooo, say it ain't so unless he's using it to further unify us.  what 4th amendment

[forgetful]

gee, speaking of dictators, this looks to be kind of dictatorship-like


    https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/ncla-unleashes-lawsuit-to-take-down-sec-s-illegal-mass-data-collection-machine-4fd96800

  but not weekend at Bernie's sec...noooooo, say it ain't so unless he's using it to further unify us.  what 4th amendment

If all that data is investor identifiable, man would I like to get my hands on it. Consolidate that with other databases/personal information on habits/income/etc, and I could create one hell of a AI-based predictive model of likely stock trades/trends.