Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

Bubbly may be the right word for this market.  Today's intra-day high of 5111.06 represents a year to date gain of 7.15%.  Less than two months into the year and the gains keep rolling in at a fast pace.  Bubbly, frothy, whatever you call it ......

rabid... sure to bite someone. 

[MU82]

Warren Buffett released his annual letter to investors yesterday. As expected, it included a tribute to his longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, who recently died.

It also include a few interesting passages about the market.

"For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young."

"Today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school."

"Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes."

I know that some say the investing world has passed the 93-year-old Buffett by. And I certainly am no expert on either Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, a stock I wish I owned but I don't.

But I am able to look at a YChart just like anybody else, and I see that BRK.B has beaten SPY over the last 3 months, 6 months, year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years ... and it has done so with far less volatility.

So either Buffett is still doing something right, or the people he chose to make Berkshire's decisions are doing something right (which, by extension, means Buffett did something right in choosing the right people).

[TSmith34, Inc.]

"Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes."

I wish he had unnatural carnal knowledgeing told me this sooner. That's advice I should have/could have used.

I know that some say the investing world has passed the 93-year-old Buffett by. And I certainly am no expert on either Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, a stock I wish I owned but I don't.

But I am able to look at a YChart just like anybody else, and I see that BRK.B has beaten SPY over the last 3 months, 6 months, year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years ... and it has done so with far less volatility.

Shhhhhh, don't tell Douchey.

I bought BRK.B in 2005. After pretty much ignoring it since, I actually added to it last year for the first time since then. I was a little surprised to see that today, after rising 17% YTD, it's grown into my largest individual holding.

It's a get rich slow play for sure. There are certainly faster ways if you pick right; I have AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and others, but I wasn't smart enough to catch them early.

The other one I have that is similar to BRKB from a performance standpoint for me is KKR. Bought that one in 2014, ignored it other than adding a small amount in 2022, and am now sitting on a CAGR of 16.9%

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Kinda think Heisey’s been barred from the Superbar

[MU82]

I bought BRK.B in 2005. After pretty much ignoring it since, I actually added to it last year for the first time since then. I was a little surprised to see that today, after rising 17% YTD, it's grown into my largest individual holding.

It's a get rich slow play for sure. There are certainly faster ways if you pick right; I have AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and others, but I wasn't smart enough to catch them early.

The other one I have that is similar to BRKB from a performance standpoint for me is KKR. Bought that one in 2014, ignored it other than adding a small amount in 2022, and am now sitting on a CAGR of 16.9%

Nicely done with BRK.B. I considered it several times and always talked myself out of it because it was "too expensive." I probably should just start buying a couple/few shares a month and let it do what it's done for you.

[rocket surgeon]

Kinda think Heisey’s been barred from the Superbar

 can you get a partial ban hammer?

[Skatastrophy]

Nicely done with BRK.B. I considered it several times and always talked myself out of it because it was "too expensive." I probably should just start buying a couple/few shares a month and let it do what it's done for you.

I made the trek to Omaha once for the shareholder meeting with a buddy of mine. Should have bought BRK.B with the travel money instead of going. Still, going to a talkshow hosted by Buffett and Munger was a wonderful time.

[21Jumpstreet]

Harvard considering selling $1.65 Billion of debt.

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Doomed

[SoCalEagle]

Hards, you may be right.  This market may be rabid, but the dogs are feasting today. 

[Hards Alumni]

Hards, you may be right.  This market may be rabid, but the dogs are feasting today.

And it may be for some more time, but eventually someone will lose.

Number can't always go up.

[Skatastrophy]

And it may be for some more time, but eventually someone will lose.

Number can't always go up.

The best predictor of new market all time highs is recent market all time highs.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

And it may be for some more time, but eventually someone will lose.

Number can't always go up.

Not to say that the market is NOT overheated, but here is a counterpoint:

Chart of the Week: The S&P 500's last three years look completely average

"To some extent, all-time highs will always look exuberant. These milestones are also the sweetest honey for market bears who can easily imagine falling to familiar territory just recently left behind.

‌But our Chart of the Week points to one metric that recasts this exuberance as almost mediocre.

A look at the S&P 500’s current rolling three-year average return shows the market’s rise over this period has been almost exactly average.

‌Currently, this return stands at around 30%; a year ago, it was 34%. The impact of the market’s crash in March 2020 inflated this measure to nearly 60% in March 2023.

‌As DataTrek's Nicholas Colas wrote this week, the average three-year price return since 1974 is 29% (8.9% per year, compounded). In that context, nothing about the current moment is remarkable.

‌Colas’s research into this metric found that at the 100% mark for three-year gains, “history says investors should be extremely wary.” (It's easy to remember too: "A double is a bubble," Colas points out.)

‌“If all you knew about the index was its 3-year return as of today, you would perhaps assume the last 36 months had been pretty routine,” Colas wrote. “Nothing in today’s analysis says we’re close to a bubble in US large caps.”

‌

[MU82]

Not to say that the market is NOT overheated, but here is a counterpoint:

Chart of the Week: The S&P 500's last three years look completely average

"To some extent, all-time highs will always look exuberant. These milestones are also the sweetest honey for market bears who can easily imagine falling to familiar territory just recently left behind.

‌But our Chart of the Week points to one metric that recasts this exuberance as almost mediocre.

A look at the S&P 500’s current rolling three-year average return shows the market’s rise over this period has been almost exactly average.

‌Currently, this return stands at around 30%; a year ago, it was 34%. The impact of the market’s crash in March 2020 inflated this measure to nearly 60% in March 2023.

‌As DataTrek's Nicholas Colas wrote this week, the average three-year price return since 1974 is 29% (8.9% per year, compounded). In that context, nothing about the current moment is remarkable.

‌Colas’s research into this metric found that at the 100% mark for three-year gains, “history says investors should be extremely wary.” (It's easy to remember too: "A double is a bubble," Colas points out.)

‌“If all you knew about the index was its 3-year return as of today, you would perhaps assume the last 36 months had been pretty routine,” Colas wrote. “Nothing in today’s analysis says we’re close to a bubble in US large caps.”

‌

I just saw that, TS, and was going to post it. It's the third or fourth article I've read showing that, by some metrics, the market's not all that overheated.

Take a stock like NVDA, which has been on a rocket ship to another galaxy for more than a year now. Despite its explosive price appreciation, its 32-ish forward PE ratio is lower than several stocks I own, including COST and MA, and its PEG ratio is a very attractive 0.9.

[Hards Alumni]

I just saw that, TS, and was going to post it. It's the third or fourth article I've read showing that, by some metrics, the market's not all that overheated.

Take a stock like NVDA, which has been on a rocket ship to another galaxy for more than a year now. Despite its explosive price appreciation, its 32-ish forward PE ratio is lower than several stocks I own, including COST and MA, and its PEG ratio is a very attractive 0.9.

But when lending rates get cut things are going to overheat quickly, won't they?

Or do you guys think a lot of that stuff is priced in?

[Skatastrophy]

But when lending rates get cut things are going to overheat quickly, won't they?

Or do you guys think a lot of that stuff is priced in?

The market is usually forward looking. There's a reason that small cap growth rebounded even though we're in a high rate environment.

[MU82]

But when lending rates get cut things are going to overheat quickly, won't they?

Or do you guys think a lot of that stuff is priced in?

There have been so many times I've thought something has been "priced in," good or bad, only to get proven wrong when that thing actually happened.

For certain sectors, especially - like utilities and REITs - lower rates definitely will be a stimulus. Absolutely. Positively. (I think.)

[TSmith34, Inc.]

For certain sectors, especially - like utilities and REITs - lower rates definitely will be a stimulus. Absolutely. Positively. (I think.)

Yup. And in anything rate sensitive--small caps, BDCs, bonds, bond-like equivalents like preferred stocks, etc. (Probably.)

[MU82]

Well, here's an interesting take on short-sellers:

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) blasted short sellers in a CNBC interview.

He said that the short sellers are “going short on a truly great American company -- not just ours -- but they just love pulling down great American companies so that they can pay for their coke.”

Karp added that he felt happy about the company’s growth. The stock is up 43.86% year-to-date.

“And the best thing that could happen to [short sellers] is we will lead their coke dealers to their homes after they can't pay their bills,” he said.

[MUBurrow]

Well, here's an interesting take on short-sellers:

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) blasted short sellers in a CNBC interview.

He said that the short sellers are “going short on a truly great American company -- not just ours -- but they just love pulling down great American companies so that they can pay for their coke.”

Karp added that he felt happy about the company’s growth. The stock is up 43.86% year-to-date.

“And the best thing that could happen to [short sellers] is we will lead their coke dealers to their homes after they can't pay their bills,” he said.

This rules.

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Sheesh

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/investing/tesla-growth-stock-elon-musk/index.html

[rocket surgeon]

anyone holding some DWAC.O before today's trading?

  made "some people" very very rich

[MU82]

Tesla slumps 7% after Q1 deliveries miss already-reduced expectations

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4086263-tesla-slumps-7-after-q1-deliveries-miss-already-reduced-expectations

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) announced on Tuesday that it delivered 386,810 vehicles in Q1 and produced 433,371 vehicles. The deliveries tally missed the consensus estimate that had already been slashed significantly over the last three weeks. Model 3/Y production was 412,376 units vs. 439,194 consensus. By comparison, Tesla delivered a total of 484,507 vehicles in Q4 and delivered 422,875 a year ago in Q1.

Tesla (TSLA) said the decline in volume was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at the Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.

The electric vehicle maker announced on Monday price increases on certain models in China and the U.S. The Model Y saw a price hike of $1,000 in the U.S. to $44,990, while the price on the Model Y AWD Long Range was increased to $49,990. The development was not a surprise, as the electric vehicle maker had warned a few weeks ago that customers should order vehicles soon in order to avoid higher pricing. The threat of higher prices may have brought in some extra sales at the very end of the quarter. In China, the basic Model Y is now listed on Tesla's (TSLA) website as priced at 263,900 yuan ($36,519), up from last week's level of 258,900 yuan. The modest price hikes cut against what has been a wave of price cuts in China by local players such as BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF), Li Auto (LI), Nio (NIO), Xpeng (XPEV), and Zeekr. Automakers are defending against new entrants into the Chinese EV market, such as Xiaomi Corporation (OTCPK:XIACF).

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Certainly increased competition is a factor, but maybe it would be helpful to Tesla if its CEO wasn't a raging a-hole?

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-hurt-musks-falling-reputation-171020269.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

[MU82]

Certainly increased competition is a factor, but maybe it would be helpful to Tesla if its CEO wasn't a raging a-hole?

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-hurt-musks-falling-reputation-171020269.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Yep, there's that.

As a TSLA shareholder, the fact that Musk is an a-hole - or even an antisemite - isn't my biggest concern. It's that he's unstable and that he wastes Tesla money on social-warrior dalliances.