Bubble Watch 2018

[nyg]

Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1

Only way and we have Creighton twice. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Only way and we have Creighton twice.

Yep. Not easy but doable. We had to win our last four last year in order to make it and did.

[NickelDimer]

*pop!*

[goldeneagle91114]

now i will look for player development. I use to think that wojo couldn't do that either, but I have seen growth in Sam, Elliot, Cain and Theo. (Minus today).

[wisblue]

Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1

I would say 5-1. 9-9 followed by a loss in the first round of the BET is likely not going to cut it.

Not to mention that it's really hard to see MU winning 4 of the next 5 considering that all but 1 of them are against teams that look a lot better than MU right now.

[79Warrior]

Yep. Not easy but doable. We had to win our last four last year in order to make it and did.

This team does not have what it takes. Too many weak links. We are exactly what our record is, a sub par Big East team.

[BM1090]

I came on here to find today's bubble action and no one had done it yet, so...

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia - Oklahoma St WINS

Temple @ South Florida - Temple WINS

North Carolina @ NC State - NC State LOSES

Mississippi St @ Missouri (Missouri win makes it really tough for MSU, but a loss pushes them closer to the bubble) - Mississippi State LOSES

Loyola-Chicago @ Indiana State (Long shot bid stealer) Loyola WINS

Auburn @ Georgia (but a Georgia win helps the RPI) - Georgia LOSES

Rutgers @ Nebraska - Nebraska WINS

Ole Miss @ LSU - LSU WINS

DePaul @ Providence - Providence LOSES (wtf?)

Richmond @ St. Bonaventure - STB WINS

North Texas @ MTSU - MTSU WINS

Virginia Tech @ Virginia - VT WINS

UCLA @ Arizona St (though an ASU loss pushes them towards the bubble)

Princeton @ Dartmouth

FIU @ Western Kentucky

Texas Tech @ Kansas State

Boise State @ Utah State

I hope I got them all!

[BM1090]

Washington, Boise State, USC all lost. Bubble teams losing everywhere.

[WarriorPride68]

Not sure where Palm had MU before this weekend, but looks like he left Marquette off bubble?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not sure where Palm had MU before this weekend, but looks like he left Marquette off bubble?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Covered earlier in the thread. CBS only includes teams that are 4 games above .500....even if most other bracketoligies have them in.

[brewcity77]

Today's watch, because I haven't given up hope yet, dammit!

Louisville at Pittsburgh

Wake Forest at Syracuse

Cincinnati at SMU

Tulane at Houston

Washington State at Oregon

[BM1090]

Today's watch, because I haven't given up hope yet, dammit!

Louisville at Pittsburgh

Wake Forest at Syracuse

Cincinnati at SMU

Tulane at Houston

Washington State at Oregon

The fact that Oregon and SMU (to a lesser extent) are on this list just proves how bad the bubble is.

Also, I looked at some of the brackets updated today on bracket matrix. Most have us in the first four out. We're still right there.

[BM1090]

Notre Dame @ UNC
Baylor @ Texas

TCU is now an 8 seed on Bracket Matrix so I have excluded them.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Just for sh*ts and giggles, here are the last 8 teams in the tournament per Lunardi's update this morning and their remaining schedules (with T-Ranks expected results):

Arkansas (17-8; 6-6)
RPI: 35; Kenpom: 45; SOS: 35

@ Ole Miss (W 55%)
vs. Texas A&M (W 56%)
vs. Kentucky (W 59%)
@ Alabama (L 65%)
vs. Auburn (L 56%)
@ Mizzou (L 67%)

Heading into SEC tourney: (20-11 (9-9)) RPI: 40; SOS: 33


Providence (16-9; 7-5)
RPI: 42; Kenpom: 74; SOS: 28

vs. Villanova (L 80%)
@ Butler (L 82%)
vs. Seton Hall (L 51%)
@ Georgetown (L 54%)
vs. Xavier (L 84%)
vs. St. Johns (W 65%)

Heading into Big East Tourney: (17-14 (8-10)) RPI: 59: SOS: 17


USC (17-9; (8-5))
RPI: 50; SOS: 40; Kenpom: 47

vs. Oregon (W 70%)
vs. Oregon State (W 79%)
@ Colorado (W 58%)
@ Utah (L 59%)
vs. UCLA (W 65%)

Heading into P12 tourney: (20-11 (12-6)) RPI: 46; SOS: 38


Washington (17-8; (7-5))
RPI: 46; SOS: 42; Kenpom: 98

vs. Utah (W 51%)
vs. Colorado (W 66%)
@ Stanford (L 68%)
@ CAL (W 71%)
vs. Oregon St. (W 64%)
vs. Oregon (W 52%)

Heading into P12 Tourney: 22-9 (12-6) RPI: 39; SOS: 60


Virginia Tech (18-7; (7-5))
RPI:56; SOS:88; Kenpom: 40

@ Duke (L 87%)
@ Georgia Tech (W 61%)
vs. Clemson (L 50%)
vs. Louisville (W 55%)
vs. Duke (L 69%)
@ Miami (L 66%)

Heading into ACC tourney: (20-11 (9-9)) RPI: 60; SOS: 64


UCLA (17-8; (8-5))
RPI:53; SOS: 59: Kenpom: 49

vs. Oregon State (W 79%)
vs. Oregon (W 69%)
@ Utah (L 60%)
@ Colorado (W 57%)
@ USC (L 65%)

Heading into P12 tourney: (20-10 (11-7)) RPI: 48; SOS: 57


Kansas State (17-8; (6-6))
RPI: 66; SOS: 80; Kenpom: 56

@ Ok State (L 64%)
vs. Iowa State (W 75%)
vs. Texas (W 57%)
@ Oklahoma (L 74%)
@ TCU (L 76%)
vs. Baylor (W 54%)

Heading into B12 Tourney: (20-11 (9-9)) RPI: 62; SOS: 76


NC State (16-9; (6-6))
RPI: 72; SOS: 56; Kenpom: 59

@ Syracuse (L 70%)
@ Wake Forest (L 55%)
vs. BC (W 70%)
vs. Florida State (L 52%)
@ Georgia tech (W 53%)
vs. Louisville (L 53%)

Heading into ACC Tourney: (18-13 (8-10)) RPI: 96; SOS: 69


As they compare to Marquette:

Marquette (14-11 (5-8))
RPI: 65; SOS: 16; Kenpom: 50

@ Creighton (L 73%)
vs. SJU (W 72%)
@ Depaul (W 56%)
@ Georgetown (W 54%)
vs. Creighton (W 54%)

Heading into Big East tourney: (18-12 (9-9)) RPI: 56; SOS: 27

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Based on projected results, I'd say we'd have a clearly better resume (at end of regular season) than NC State and Kansas State.

A bit better than Providence.

On par with UCLA, Arkansas and Virginia Tech.

USC and Washington's resumes would be the top 2 out of this sampling of teams, IMO.

Obviously this doesn't show other teams around the bubble but currently projected as in like Houston, Texas, Missouri, Louisville, TCU...but I think those teams are safely inside the bubble at the moment.

Or teams in Lunardi's first 8 outs...Boise state, Nebraska, St. Bonnie, Syracuse, Utah, Temple, Mississippi State and Western Kentucky.  But the point is...win the games you're supposed to win and you'll still be right there.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Thanks for all this work though I doubt it will quell the negativos. I was surprised by how poor VPI's projected profile was considering what I perceived their bid worthiness to be. Also thought it was odd that Lunardi moved them down after their big victory.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Thanks for all this work though I doubt it will quell the negativos. I was surprised by how poor VPI's projected profile was considering what I perceived their bid worthiness to be. Also thought it was odd that Lunardi moved them down after their big victory.

Their noncon schedule was awful. Other than beating a good not great UNC team at home, their resume was pretty pedestrian...until Saturday. That win will get them in barring a sub .500 ACC record.

[BM1090]

Notre Dame @ UNC
Baylor @ Texas

TCU is now an 8 seed on Bracket Matrix so I have excluded them.

After looking i think it'd be better for Texas to beat Baylor. Texas is a 9 seed. Baylor is next 4 out

[BM1090]

TCU and ND lose. Baylor beats Texas in OT. Can't decide if that's the better of two results for us. Going with yes because Baylor is likely still out and this pushes Texas down towards the bubble. Now 5-8 in conference.

[Wade for President]

Based on projected results, I'd say we'd have a clearly better resume (at end of regular season) than NC State and Kansas State.

You'd be hard pressed to find a team that has three better wins (neutral win over Zona, Duke, @ UNC) than NC State.   Just sayin.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Kansas @ Iowa State (Iowa State isn't that close, but a win here would get them closer)

Texas A&M @ Missouri (Missouri safely in for now (top 9 seed on bracket matrix), but a Tex A&M W would be preferred result)

Maryland @ Nebraska (both bubble teams, Nebraska closer to being in. Can't image Maryland getting in regardless - both next four our on bracket matric)

Arkansas @ Ole Miss (Arkansas last 9 seed on bracket mastrix)

St. Bonnie @ LaSalle (St. Bonnie next four out)

LSU @ Alabama (Alabama 8 seed; LSU a fringy bubble team.  I think we'd prefer an LSU win, but either result would be fine)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Kansas @ Iowa State (Iowa State isn't that close, but a win here would get them closer)

Texas A&M @ Missouri (Missouri safely in for now (top 9 seed on bracket matrix), but a Tex A&M W would be preferred result)

Maryland @ Nebraska (both bubble teams, Nebraska closer to being in. Can't image Maryland getting in regardless - both next four our on bracket matric)

Arkansas @ Ole Miss (Arkansas last 9 seed on bracket mastrix)

St. Bonnie @ LaSalle (St. Bonnie next four out)

LSU @ Alabama (Alabama 8 seed; LSU a fringy bubble team.  I think we'd prefer an LSU win, but either result would be fine)

Winners: Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, St. Bonnie, Alabama

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

South Florida at UCF (UCF very fringe at this point)

Villanova at Providence (11 seed per BracketMatrix)

Clemson at Florida State (9 seed)

Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Duke


Mississippi State (next four out) @ Vandy

Kansas State (11 seed) @ Ok State (OK state also near the bubble, so either result would be OK)

NC State (first four out) @ Syracuse (11 seed) [Not even sure who to pick in this one; either result is probably fine.]

Georgia @ Florida (Georgia a ways from the bubble at this point)

Memphis @ SMU (SMU a ways from the bubble at this point)

Nevada (8 seed) @ Boise State (first four out) (Nevada should probably be in regardless at this point, but a loss for Boise would be crushing...a win would be a big boost)

[BM1090]

South Florida at UCF (UCF very fringe at this point)

Villanova at Providence (11 seed per BracketMatrix)

Clemson at Florida State (9 seed)

Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Duke


Mississippi State (next four out) @ Vandy

Kansas State (11 seed) @ Ok State (OK state also near the bubble, so either result would be OK)

NC State (first four out) @ Syracuse (11 seed) [Not even sure who to pick in this one; either result is probably fine.]

Georgia @ Florida (Georgia a ways from the bubble at this point)

Memphis @ SMU (SMU a ways from the bubble at this point)

Nevada (8 seed) @ Boise State (first four out) (Nevada should probably be in regardless at this point, but a loss for Boise would be crushing...a win would be a big boost)

SMU is done. Crushing loss for them. Mississippi State might be too. Big missed opportunity for Boise St.

[BM1090]

Cincinnati @ Houston (10 seed)
Temple (Next 4 out) @ Wichita State
Ohio State @ Penn State (Fringe Bubble)
Middle Tennessee (bid stealer) @ Southern Miss
Oregon @ USC (First Team Out). Oregon would probably move near the bubble with a win
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley
Western Kentucky (bid stealer) @ North Texas
Oregon State @ UCLA (last 4 in)