MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: BM1090 on January 27, 2018, 12:22:30 PM
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We did this last year and now that we are about halfway through conference season it is about that time. I'll update comprehensively as the day goes on, but here are the big bubble games from this morning's action.
NC State (9th team out) @ UNC
Baylor (7th team out) @ Florida
Texas Tech @ South Carolina (6th team out)
Georgia @Kansas State. Both bubble teams but UGA helps the RPI
Ole Miss @ Texas (current 9 seed)
Oklahoma @ Alabama (10 seed)
Syracuse @ Pitt. Would be a very bad loss for Cuse who is last four in
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech. Both bubble teams
Missouri @ Mississippi State. Missouri on the bubble last for in.
Boise State @ Air Force. Boise State first four out
Marshall @ Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky first four out
If it wasn't obvious, teams we should be cheering for are in bold. Team standing is from bracket matrix
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NC State gets a huge road win.
SC misses an opportunity at home vs. TTU who was banged up.
Baylor got rolled by Florida.
Alabama gets a nice home win vs. Oklahoma
Kansas State beats Georgia. Pushes Georgia further from the bubble.
Texas holds serve vs. Ole Miss
Cuse and WKU win.
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Notre dame falls to V Tech at home. Looks pretty bleak for them with all the injuries.
Missouri about to fall to Mississippi State.
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ND was favored by 3 over VT.
Decent win for Buzz.
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Buzz with back to back wins over North Carolina and then Notre Dame.
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Buzz with back to back wins over North Carolina and then Notre Dame.
Win over UNC was good. Notre Dame is a shell of itself right now. Doubtful they are a tournament team down 3 starters due to injury.
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Win over UNC was good. Notre Dame is a shell of itself right now. Doubtful they are a tournament team down 3 starters due to injury.
Swinging through NC for two next week (Duke & NC State) to bring their losing streak to 7. Injuries are amounting to a throw-away year in South Bend. Amazing where this team is now compared to where they were after winning the Maui Invitational. They looked like a legit FF team - albeit in November...
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MU listed as one of the last four byes (6 teams between MU and the cutline; 2 between MU and the First Four) in Lunardi's update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
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1/29
Notre Dame @ Duke
Northwestern (this one is a stretch, not in current brackets) @ Michigan
Kansas @ Kansas State (10 seed)
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MU controls its own destiny.
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MU controls its own destiny.
Yep. 6-3 down the stretch and it's a lock. I am more doing this as a fun exercise for me because I love watching CBB and assume others here do too.
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MU listed as one of the last four byes (6 teams between MU and the cutline; 2 between MU and the First Four) in Lunardi's update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
A #1 and #2 seed would be great for the Big East. And I'd happily take a #10 seed for MU this season. If we finish 6-3 and win at least a game in the conference tournament, I think we'll improve on that seeding.
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MU controls its own destiny.
If it's destiny, it has already been determined.
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A #1 and #2 seed would be great for the Big East. And I'd happily take a #10 seed for MU this season. If we finish 6-3 and win at least a game in the conference tournament, I think we'll improve on that seeding.
I think if we go 6-3 with a win in the BETourney its a lock. We'll need one in the tourney, hopefully we get providence or creighton in our first game
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I think if we go 6-3 with a win in the BETourney its a lock. We'll need one in the tourney, hopefully we get providence or creighton in our first game
If we go 6-3 we won't need anything in the BET.
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I think if we go 6-3 with a win in the BETourney its a lock. We'll need one in the tourney, hopefully we get providence or creighton in our first game
Absolutely not! If they go 6-3 they are a lead pipe lock..No win in the BET is needed at that point.
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I think if we go 6-3 with a win in the BETourney its a lock. We'll need one in the tourney, hopefully we get providence or creighton in our first game
6-3 we are a lock a win in BET might help seeding
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If MU isn't already in the field before the BET commences, I don't think one win is going to help them.
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I think if we go 6-3 with a win in the BETourney its a lock. We'll need one in the tourney, hopefully we get providence or creighton in our first game
I don’t know why you would be hopeful vs. CU. If we are 0-2 vs CU, I don’t thing anyone would be wishing to get CU in the BEAST Tourney.
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Yep. 6-3 down the stretch and it's a lock. I am more doing this as a fun exercise for me because I love watching CBB and assume others here do too.
I appreciate you doing it. Honestly, gives me atleast a minor rooting interest when I check scores. Thanks a bunch man! Keep dat shiz up!👍🏼👍🏼
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I appreciate you doing it. Honestly, gives me atleast a minor rooting interest when I check scores. Thanks a bunch man! Keep dat shiz up!👍🏼👍🏼
Likewise. I'm a loser and have been doing this myself for a couple weeks now but I always enjoy getting more input from others on these games.
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If MU isn't already in the field before the BET commences, I don't think one win is going to help them.
If we aren't in the field, the only win that will help us get in is on Saturday.
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Gotsto beet does aheed o dus, ai-na?
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Dis a soft or hard bubble, hey?
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Dis a soft or hard bubble, hey?
Sounds like you should call your doctor, a'ina?
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Hemorrhoids no matta, hey?
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Bleacher Report has us as a 12 seed playing South Carolina in a play-in game. At least it wouldn’t be a home game this time for them because it’s in Boise!
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#10 seed against Louisville per SI...
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/01/29/ncaa-tournament-bracket-watch-west-virginia-auburn-nc-state-xavier (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/01/29/ncaa-tournament-bracket-watch-west-virginia-auburn-nc-state-xavier)
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To keep this going (1/30):
Florida @ Georgia (UGA 10th out, but win helps RPI)
TCU @ Oklahoma State (14th out)
Buffalo @ Kent State (Buffalo is only team from MAC that could take an at-large bid if another team wins MAC tourney - currently listed as 12 seed)
Baylor @ Oklahoma (11th out)
Arkansas (9 seed) @ Texas A&M (10 seed)
Also, a win by Northern Illinois at Central Michigan would be decent for the RPI
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If versus South Carolina or Louisville, will that be in the Convict League Championship?
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Bleacher Report has us as a 12 seed playing South Carolina in a play-in game. At least it wouldn’t be a home game this time for them because it’s in Boise!
If South Carolina heads to Boise for our play-in, I like our chances. (Dayton still hosts the First Four, right?)
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I appreciate you doing it. Honestly, gives me atleast a minor rooting interest when I check scores. Thanks a bunch man! Keep dat shiz up!👍🏼👍🏼
+1
-1 on all the critical guys
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Bleacher Report has us as a 12 seed playing South Carolina in a play-in game. At least it wouldn’t be a home game this time for them because it’s in Boise!
I thought the play-ins were at 11 and 16, and anything below 11 was autobid?
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I thought the play-ins were at 11 and 16, and anything below 11 was autobid?
Not necessarily, just wherever the last at large teams are on the S curve. Wasn't BYU a 14 play in game in the Carlino derby in 2012? Also, the play in games are automatically in Dayton.
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To keep this going (1/30):
Florida @ Georgia (UGA 10th out, but win helps RPI)
TCU @ Oklahoma State (14th out)
Buffalo @ Kent State (Buffalo is only team from MAC that could take an at-large bid if another team wins MAC tourney - currently listed as 12 seed)
Baylor @ Oklahoma (11th out)
Arkansas (9 seed) @ Texas A&M (10 seed)
Also, a win by Northern Illinois at Central Michigan would be decent for the RPI
Baylor, Buffalo and Oklahoma State all lost.
Georgia won, but that doesn't hurt. Solid night.
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Not necessarily, just wherever the last at large teams are on the S curve. Wasn't BYU a 14 play in game in the Carlino derby in 2012? Also, the play in games are automatically in Dayton.
Exactly correct. Also, teams can be moved up or down a seed line in order to meet other selection/bracketing criteria... without looking I cannot say for sure, but BYU may have been a natural 12 seed as a play-in but were bumped down to 14 so that they wouldn't be in a Fri/Sun pod or regional.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Updated bracket has mu as an 11 seed and one of the last 4 bye teams
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Updated bracket has mu as an 11 seed and one of the last 4 bye teams
mmm, soft bubble.
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mmm, soft bubble.
Yeah it's pretty awful. Teams either have no good wins or like NC State, have some very good wins but also some terrible losses.
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SMU (11 seed) @ Tulsa
Middle Tennessee (possible but unlikely bid stealer) @ Old Dominion
Oregon (pretty fringe) @ Cal
Arizona State @ Washington (third team out)
BYU (very fringe) @ Loyola Marymount
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mmm, soft bubble.
Can anyone recall the last time the bubble wasn't soft?
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If anyone has ESPN Insider, you can click the team name on bracketology and get the W/L breakdown for each team. You'll see very quickly why we have a solid chance at 9-9.
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SMU (11 seed) @ Tulsa
Middle Tennessee (possible but unlikely bid stealer) @ Old Dominion
Oregon (pretty fringe) @ Cal
Arizona State @ Washington (third team out)
BYU (very fringe) @ Loyola Marymount
SMU is going to lose.
Would add WKU @ UTEP to your loss.
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SMU (11 seed) @ Tulsa
Middle Tennessee (possible but unlikely bid stealer) @ Old Dominion
Oregon (pretty fringe) @ Cal
Arizona State @ Washington (third team out)
BYU (very fringe) @ Loyola Marymount
SMU lost. Oregon avoided a disaster loss. Washington up in the 2nd half vs. ASU. MTSU avoided a disaster loss. BYU looks like they are gonna suffer a disaster loss.
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Can anyone recall the last time the bubble wasn't soft?
I think bubbles are soft by their very nature. Surface tension and such....
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I think bubbles are soft by their very nature. Surface tension and such....
Then how do you explain Bubble Boy?
(http://akns-images.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/2015621/rs_634x1024-150721172954-634.Bubble-Boy-jake-gyllenhaal.jw.72115.jpg)
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Then how do you explain Bubble Boy?
(http://akns-images.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/2015621/rs_634x1024-150721172954-634.Bubble-Boy-jake-gyllenhaal.jw.72115.jpg)
He is an enigma wrapped in a...bubble.
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Only one bubble game today and it's fringe.
Utah (in 4/107 bracket projections) @ Colorado
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Only one bubble game today and it's fringe.
Utah (in 4/107 bracket projections) @ Colorado
I'm surprised Utah is only in a handful of brackets. Their resume is very similar to ours. Right now, I would assume Utah should be in.
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I'm surprised Utah is only in a handful of brackets. Their resume is very similar to ours. Right now, I would assume Utah should be in.
Similar but ours is a bit safer right now. 8 of our 9 losses are to the top 30 RPI. Utah has 4 losses RPI 40+ and 1 of them is to RPI 152 UNLV
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Similar but ours is a bit safer right now. 8 of our 9 losses are to the top 30 RPI. Utah has 4 losses RPI 40+ and 1 of them is to RPI 152 UNLV
They also play in a pretty meh league.
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Similar but ours is a bit safer right now. 8 of our 9 losses are to the top 30 RPI. Utah has 4 losses RPI 40+ and 1 of them is to RPI 152 UNLV
I don't know... They have one more top 25 win than us, and the difference between a loss to 27 vs 41 seems like splitting hairs a bit to me. The fact that our worst loss is sitting at 52 right now sure does seem to be a big thing in our favor. I do think we have a better resume, but Utah's is respectable.
Regardless of how they compare to us, I think Utah gets in this year. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough, and their 2 games against possible tournament teams (Nevada, Boise St) will come at home.
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Regardless of how they compare to us, I think Utah gets in this year. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough, and their 2 games against possible tournament teams (Nevada, Boise St) will come at home.
Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on
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Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on
Wait. The Legend is unretiring?
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Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on
Priceless
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Anybody subscribe to The Athletic? Eammon Brennan posted his first Bubble Watch.
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Anybody subscribe to The Athletic? Eammon Brennan posted his first Bubble Watch.
Yes. BTW - everyone should subscribe to the Athletic. Best $4/month you'll spend.
Here is BE summary:
Locks: Villanova, Xavier
Should be in: Seton Hall, Creighton
Work to do: Butler, Providence, Marquette
As previously discussed, Villanova was on a historic offensive pace coming into Thursday night's matchup with Creighton. It won 98-78. Seriously: The Wildcats are scoring in a way very few teams in the past two decades have come anywhere close to matching. Savor it.
Seton Hall (17-5, 6-3 – RPI: 18, SOS: 30): In the moment, Seton Hall's back-to-back losses to Creighton and Xavier seemed dire; a couple weeks later, they don't seem like all that big of a deal. The Pirates rebounded with a businesslike performance at DePaul and an easy win over Providence on Wednesday. They may not be an absolute lock, and the Dec. 16 loss at Rutgers is a black eye, but they're in good shape all the same.
Creighton (17-6, 7-4 – RPI: 27, SOS: 72): Is Creighton going to make the tournament? Almost certainly. Would we caution against overconfidence at this stage? Also, yes. The Bluejays' best wins have all come at home, and none of their top-60 victories (Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, Nebraska) is truly eye-popping. Martin Krampelj's injury has put stress on Greg McDermott's rotation smack in the heart of the season. And if things do get dicey, a nonconference strength of schedule in the 270s could hurt. Just fair warning, that's all.
Butler (16-7, 6-4 – RPI: 25, SOS: 25): Analytically, it's easy to understand Butler's 101-93 win over Villanova on Dec. 30 as the result of a fleeting moment of basketball perfection, a record-setting, out-of-body shooting experience that comes along (at most) once every few decades. True enough. But a win is a win, and wins don't get much, um, winnier than a win over Villanova. A neutral-court victory over Ohio State (and former coach Chris Holtmann) may not have that kind of cachet, but it pairs nicely. Good numbers, no awful losses … Butler has some shoring up to do, sure, but its resume looks a lot better than most of the bubble.
Providence (14-8, 5-4 – RPI: 34, SOS: 19): Left for dead last February, the Friars engineered one of the most remarkable bubble comebacks the Watch had ever seen, winning their final six regular-season games, turning a 14-11 (4-8) record into a 20-11 (10-8) mark worthy of an at-large bid. (Providence lost to USC in the play-in game, but still, it was pretty rad.) This year the Friars found themselves in a not-dissimilar position at the start of January, when weak work in the nonconference had them well off the bracket-projection radar. Four straight wins from Jan. 6 to Jan. 20 – vs. Xavier, at DePaul, vs. Butler, vs. Creighton – felt like a mini-repeat of 2017,. with the benefit of being much earlier in the calendar. Maybe things won't need to be quite so dramatic this time around?
Marquette (13-9, 4-6 – RPI: 53, SOS: 11): Marquette is a thrilling offensive showpiece. Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey and Sam Hauser are often an unguardable three-headed scoring monster, one of the nation's best three-man pace-and-space attacks. Unfortunately, the Golden Eagles don't really guard. As good as they've been on one end, the Big East's worst per-trip defense has been even worse on the other, and a 2-5 record in their past seven is a testament to the benefit of occasional stops. On the other hand, five of their nine losses have come against top-10 RPI teams, and their schedule rates out highly. They might torch their way into the tourney yet.
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I'm surprised Utah is only in a handful of brackets. Their resume is very similar to ours. Right now, I would assume Utah should be in.
We have a significantly better SOS. That also have a brutal loss to UNLV (RPI 155). And fair or not, the PAC 12 is regarded as a worse basketball league than the Big East by a pretty wide margin.
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Have to win some games, then it will all play out in the end. There will be many bubble teams going in and out of the tournament in the next month.
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Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on
Ha, oops. My bad. Utah's remaining schedule only has USC and Washington as potential tournament opponents. But they do play a number of top 100 teams, so there may be a chance for an upset in there. I assume they'll finish the season with an RPI above ours but will still have that one ugly loss on their record.
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We have a significantly better SOS. That also have a brutal loss to UNLV (RPI 155). And fair or not, the PAC 12 is regarded as a worse basketball league than the Big East by a pretty wide margin.
Our SOS is better, but that's not really important when looking at whether Utah is a contender for an at large bid. Their SOS is still strong at 35, and they have 3 top 50 wins to their name. I think that puts them right in the mix.
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I don't know... They have one more top 25 win than us, and the difference between a loss to 27 vs 41 seems like splitting hairs a bit to me. The fact that our worst loss is sitting at 52 right now sure does seem to be a big thing in our favor. I do think we have a better resume, but Utah's is respectable.
Regardless of how they compare to us, I think Utah gets in this year. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough, and their 2 games against possible tournament teams (Nevada, Boise St) will come at home.
Utah has only played two games against RPI top 25 teams and they lost both (Arizona x2).
Conversely, we have played 7 games against RPI top 25 teams (and 9 against top 26) and have won one of them.
As others have pointed out, I think you have your Utah schools mixed up. But you might be right about Utah making it. They are currently projected to either win or be in a toss up in all of their remaining games. Here's their approximate numbers for each possible outcome:
8-0: RPI 25 SOS 52
7-1: RPI 38 SOS 52
6-2: RPI 45 SOS 54
5-3: RPI 55 SOS 54
They need 7-1 in order to be a lock but 6-2 should do it. I would be very nervous as a Ute fan at 5-3.
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We have a significantly better SOS. That also have a brutal loss to UNLV (RPI 155). And fair or not, the PAC 12 is regarded as a worse basketball league than the Big East by a pretty wide margin.
None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.
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8-0: RPI 25 SOS 52
7-1: RPI 38 SOS 52
6-2: RPI 45 SOS 54
5-3: RPI 55 SOS 54
They need 7-1 in order to be a lock but 6-2 should do it. I would be very nervous as a Ute fan at 5-3.
Wow, their SOS really drops off for the remainder of the season. A 6-2 finish with an SOS of 35 (today) is a much different story than an SOS of 54 (projected year-end). That could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.
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Wow, their SOS really drops off for the remainder of the season. A 6-2 finish with an SOS of 35 (today) is a much different story than an SOS of 54 (projected year-end). That could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.
Yep. It's good to be in the Big East. Though to be fair, ours is also going to drop by 10-15 points.
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None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.
I mean, you have to consider the schedule. Sure we're 4-6, but 2 of those losses are to legitimately the best team in the country by a fair margin, and another 2 losses to a top 5 team that has a very good chance to win a national championship. Obviously, Butler has Marquette's number. But we've got a real good chance to win 5 of our next 7 games, but that includes losing 2 of the next 4. The schedule matters.
But you're right, losing tomorrow makes everything a lot more difficult.
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None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.
Well yeah, winning games is important. I wouldn't say that losing Saturday means the climb is "almost insurmountable." We have a very friendly end to our schedule. I could see us going 6-1 for the lock or 5-2 for the should be in. That being said, let's just win tomorrow and take some of the pressure off. I think we can all agree with that.
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None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.
This.
We have shown no reason to have hope we can string victories together, yet some here think we will win 6 out of 7 if we lose to Providence.
Sadly, it ain't happenin'.
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This.
We have shown no reason to have hope we can string victories together, yet some here think we will win 6 out of 7 if we lose to Providence.
Sadly, it ain't happenin'.
We haven't done a great job of it so far this year, but we also haven't had this easy of a stretch in our schedule. It's much harder to string together wins when you have top 10 and top 25 teams sprinkled in every other game.
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Well yeah, winning games is important. I wouldn't say that losing Saturday means the climb is "almost insurmountable." We have a very friendly end to our schedule. I could see us going 6-1 for the lock or 5-2 for the should be in. That being said, let's just win tomorrow and take some of the pressure off. I think we can all agree with that.
I am not disagreeing with your POV. I just think if we lose Saturday, 5 of the last 7 is on the road. How is that favorable regardless of the opponent. I just do not see 6-1, sorry.
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I am not disagreeing with your POV. I just think if we lose Saturday, 5 of the last 7 is on the road. How is that favorable regardless of the opponent. I just do not see 6-1, sorry.
St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown are garbage both home and away which is 3 out of the 5 road games. Doesn't mean we can't lose to them but realistically we shouldn't.
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St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown are garbage both home and away which is 3 out of the 5 road games. Doesn't mean we can't lose to them but realistically we shouldn't.
I never take any road game for granted, regardless of opponent.
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I never take any road game for granted, regardless of opponent.
We absolutely can, we don't play the games. And if we lose those games (which would be possible) it tells me this team isn't good, not that any of those teams aren't bad. What I've seen out of this team to date tells me we are better than those 3 teams regardless or where we play.
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We absolutely can, we don't play the games. And if we lose those games (which would be possible) it tells me this team isn't good, not that any of those teams aren't bad. What I've seen out of this team to date tells me we are better than those 3 teams regardless or where we play.
Kenpom has us as a 1 point favorite @ SJU. They aren't nearly as bad as their record.
Georgetown and DePaul are bad, though.
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We absolutely can, we don't play the games. And if we lose those games (which would be possible) it tells me this team isn't good, not that any of those teams aren't bad. What I've seen out of this team to date tells me we are better than those 3 teams regardless or where we play.
I think it is more match ups and place in the schedule. After Vilanova we had an emotional let down, not uncommon.
Playing after a layoff then two ranked teams is impossible. It is not the coach, it is not the players, it is/was the schedule.
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We did this last year and now that we are about halfway through conference season it is about that time. I'll update comprehensively as the day goes on, but here are the big bubble games from this morning's action.
NC State (9th team out) @ UNC
Baylor (7th team out) @ Florida
Texas Tech @ South Carolina (6th team out)
Georgia @Kansas State. Both bubble teams but UGA helps the RPI
Ole Miss @ Texas (current 9 seed)
Oklahoma @ Alabama (10 seed)
Syracuse @ Pitt. Would be a very bad loss for Cuse who is last four in
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech. Both bubble teams
Missouri @ Mississippi State. Missouri on the bubble last for in.
Boise State @ Air Force. Boise State first four out
Marshall @ Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky first four out
If it wasn't obvious, teams we should be cheering for are in bold. Team standing is from bracket matrix
Nice to be able to cheer for UNC to benefit MU.
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Utah lost. Bubble stays weak.
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Houston @ UCF
Virginia @ Syracuse
Miami @ Virginia Tech
Notre Dame @ NC State (both bubble)
Kentucky @ Missouri
South Carolina @ Texas AM both bubble teams
Oklahoma St @ Kansas
There are definitely more that i haven't added. Just did the early games
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This.
We have shown no reason to have hope we can string victories together, yet some here think we will win 6 out of 7 if we lose to Providence.
Sadly, it ain't happenin'.
Those that think we will win 6 of 7 are in need of drug intervention.
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Yep. 6-3 down the stretch and it's a lock. I am more doing this as a fun exercise for me because I love watching CBB and assume others here do too.
6-3 is not a lock. That puts us at 19-12. That would likely be bubble worthy--not a lock.
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6-3 is not a lock. That puts us at 19-12. That would likely be bubble worthy--not a lock.
Dude, read the thread. Depends what your definition of bubble is. If you think an 8-10 seed range is bubble, sure.
And MU only has 8 games left.
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6-3 is not a lock. That puts us at 19-12. That would likely be bubble worthy--not a lock.
Willie, you're bad at math.
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Dude, read the thread. Depends what your definition of bubble is. If you think an 8-10 seed range is bubble, sure.
And MU only has 8 games left.
Pretty convinced he's trolling at this point
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Willie, you're bad at math.
Sorry, the other guy said 6-3. Did not look at the schedule. 19-11 is not a lock either.
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Sorry, the other guy said 6-3. Did not look at the schedule. 19-11 is not a lock either.
Said that before the Butler game. But you're still wrong.
That said, we look pretty awful against PC again
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St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown are garbage both home and away which is 3 out of the 5 road games. Doesn't mean we can't lose to them but realistically we shouldn't.
Looks like somebody forget to tell St. John's they are garbage.
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Sorry, the other guy said 6-3. Did not look at the schedule. 19-11 is not a lock either.
Still bad at math
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How's the NIT bubble looking?
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Bubble teams continue to lose. Bubble continues to get softer. Shame we couldn't solidify our position today.
In all seriousness, the bubble is beyond awful. 9-9 would do it. We just haven't shown the ability to get there.
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Really hard to see MU turning things around enough to get to 9-9. The team looks spent and teams have figured out how to neuter the once high powered offense. Everyone in the conference, except for maybe DePaul, seems to have improved more than MU as the season has progressed.
MU will probably be an underdog, or very close to it, in each of the 7 remaining games except at DePaul. The NIT is hardly a lock, and how much does it really matter?
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Bubble teams continue to lose. Bubble continues to get softer. Shame we couldn't solidify our position today.
In all seriousness, the bubble is beyond awful. 9-9 would do it. We just haven't shown the ability to get there.
Agree with all of this
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Bubble teams continue to lose. Bubble continues to get softer. Shame we couldn't solidify our position today.
In all seriousness, the bubble is beyond awful. 9-9 would do it. We just haven't shown the ability to get there.
I think St. John's beating Duke guarantees the Big East 7 bids, if the Big East has 7 teams 9-9 or above. I getting a little worried about MU getting to 9-9. It is not because MU lost 4 straight. I expected that to happen. What worries me is that St. John's and Georgetown are playing better and it has become less likely that we can go 4-0 in the remaining games against the bottom three. I am pretty sure we can win at least one of three games against Creighton and Seton Hall, but I think we are going to lose a game to the three bottom teams.
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I think St. John's beating Duke guarantees the Big East 7 bids, if the Big East has 7 teams 9-9 or above. I getting a little worried about MU getting to 9-9. It is not because MU lost 4 straight. I expected that to happen. What worries me is that St. John's and Georgetown are playing better and it has become less likely that we can go 4-0 in the remaining games against the bottom three. I am pretty sure we can win at least one of three games against Creighton and Seton Hall, but I think we are going to lose a game to the three bottom teams.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but I agree with the entire post.
I think 7 BE bids is a real possibility if MU goes 9-9. At this point it’s probably our last hope unless PC falls off a cliff and can’t get to .500.
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To further describe the bubble, 12-10 Temple who is 4-6 in the AAC has themselves a big game today. @Tulane who they lost to by 10 at home. Temple is very much in the bubble conversation due to a top 10 SOS despite league.
There is a zero percent chance that anyone from the BE isn’t dancing with a .500 or better record.
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After losing 4/5, Lunardi, the most respected bracketologist, still has MU has the 1st team out of the tournament in his update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
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After losing 4/5, Lunardi, the most respected bracketologist, still has MU has the 1st team out of the tournament in his update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Yep. Arguably the worst bubble ever. MU's computer #s continue to be solid.
I'll keep this going until Marquette has 10 conference loses.
Syracuse (next 4 out) @ Louisville
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Yep. Arguably the worst bubble ever. MU's computer #s continue to be solid.
I'll keep this going until Marquette has 10 conference loses.
Syracuse (next 4 out) @ Louisville
Orange add a quality road win to their resume.
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Orange add a quality road win to their resume.
And Louisville slips closer to bubble. Their resume isn’t very impressive.
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I did a blind bubble run on Twitter today looking at the resumes of the last 8 teams in and comparing them to Marquette assuming we get to 9-9 (a big ask at this point, but the baseline for any realistic bubble talk). Even with 3-5 potential bid stealers, I believe Marquette would get in at 9-9. They would have to have those wins before MSG, and would be better off getting at least one win there (assuming they start from the 7 spot), but strictly in terms of what they need from this season, I still firmly believe winning the 4 games against the three bottom feeders and getting one against Creighton or SHU would be enough.
That said, like bilsu, my biggest worry is dropping one of those 4.
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I did a blind bubble run on Twitter today looking at the resumes of the last 8 teams in and comparing them to Marquette assuming we get to 9-9 (a big ask at this point, but the baseline for any realistic bubble talk). Even with 3-5 potential bid stealers, I believe Marquette would get in at 9-9. They would have to have those wins before MSG, and would be better off getting at least one win there (assuming they start from the 7 spot), but strictly in terms of what they need from this season, I still firmly believe winning the 4 games against the three bottom feeders and getting one against Creighton or SHU would be enough.
That said, like bilsu, my biggest worry is dropping one of those 4.
But what if we drop 1 of those 4 and replace it with a win and SHU or 2 creighton wins?
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But what if we drop 1 of those 4 and replace it with a win and SHU or 2 creighton wins?
I believe that 9-9 gives us a very good chance regardless. If you look at the rest of the bubble, we would be 15-1 in Quadrant 2/3/4 games. No one else would have a better record in those quadrants and definitely no one would have better losses. If we take a loss say at St. John's or Georgetown but sweep Creighton, I think we're in.
If there end up being some ludicrous number of bid thieves, say 5-7, we might get left out at 9-9. But as long as it's a fairly regular year, we should be safe.
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Lots of bubble action tonight:
Alabama (9 seed) @ Miss State
South Carolina @ Arkansas (10 seed)
TCU (8 seed; but loss drops them to 4-7 in B12) @ Kansas
Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota
Missouri (10 seed) @ Ole Miss
Boise State (last 4 in) @ New Mexico
More fringe bubble games:
Baylor @ Okla State (both well behind cutline currently, but could play way back onto bubble)
BC @ Notre Dame (both long shots at this point)
UCF @ Cinci
Buffalo (potential bid stealer) @ Cent Mich
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Lots of bubble action tonight:
Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota
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Isaac Copeland looks pretty smart right now jumping ship at Gtown when he did. As long as they don't take a spot from us, It'd be cool to see Nebraska make it, and I think they will just because they'll be the fifth best team in the B14
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With 7 games left, 5-2 is attainable, but not a certainty. 6 and 1 or 7 and 0 seem miles away.
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Isaac Copeland looks pretty smart right now jumping ship at Gtown when he did. As long as they don't take a spot from us, It'd be cool to see Nebraska make it, and I think they will just because they'll be the fifth best team in the B14
It's been discussed in the Becky thread at length so I won't go into too much depth, but I think Nebraska needs to go 5-1 in their last 6 games to feel good. NCSOS was garbage and their best NC win was Boston College. Computer numbers are pretty meh. They pass the eye test though - I think they're better than alot of teams around the bubble.
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Isaac Copeland looks pretty smart right now jumping ship at Gtown when he did. As long as they don't take a spot from us, It'd be cool to see Nebraska make it, and I think they will just because they'll be the fifth best team in the B14
Incorrect, It would be much cooler to see every team in the Big10,11,12,13,14 be miserable and only get one auto-bid. This year is the closest we will ever get to that. Let's hope Nebraska and Maryland lose the rest and they laughably get 4 teams
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Incorrect, It would be much cooler to see every team in the Big10,11,12,13,14 be miserable and only get one auto-bid. This year is the closest we will ever get to that. Let's hope Nebraska and Maryland lose the rest and they laughably get 4 teams
That would be cool, but would never happen. This year I don't see any way that the B14 doesn't get at least 5 teams, as poor as their SOS is, if they are the fifth best team in a P6 league, they'll get a bid, as undeserving as at may seem.
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That would be cool, but would never happen. This year I don't see any way that the B14 doesn't get at least 5 teams, as poor as their SOS is, if they are the fifth best team in a P6 league, they'll get a bid, as undeserving as at may seem.
There is a very legit chance that that the B10 only gets 4 seeds. There are only 6 teams in contention - Purdue, MSU, OSU and Michigan are in - Nebraska and Maryland are on the bubble. I too think the one of those will get in, but I see basically no scenario where B10 gets more than 5 bids. Those extra bids will be going to the SEC this year.
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There is a very legit chance that that the B10 only gets 4 seeds. There are only 6 teams in contention - Purdue, MSU, OSU and Michigan are in - Nebraska and Maryland are on the bubble. I too think the one of those will get in, but I see basically no scenario where B10 gets more than 5 bids. Those extra bids will be going to the SEC this year.
Nebraska is done with the top four, and only plays one more game against teams that are.500 or better in conference, and that 6-6 Penn St at home. They also still have Rutgers and Illinois who are combined 4-20 in conference. Yes that's a lot of opportunities for bad losses but I think their path to the tourney is easier than ours. Even if they only go 4-2 in their last six, I don't see a P6 team that went 12-6 in conference getting left out no matter how bad the B10 is this year.
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ESPN's Bubble Watch is back: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22256337/bubble-watch-returns-competition-places-acc-sec
No surprises here. It has Nova and Xavier as "locks," and SHU as "should be in." Creighton, Butler, Providence, and Marquette are in the "work to do" category. About MU:
No Big East team better exemplifies the "work to do" label than Marquette, which has a long way to go before it will be considered solidly in the field. Still, a win at home against Seton Hall at least gives Marquette a cornerstone, of sorts. Now Marquette must build the edifice around it with, say, a win or two in upcoming road games at Seton Hall, St. John's and Creighton.
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ESPN's Bubble Watch is back: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22256337/bubble-watch-returns-competition-places-acc-sec
No surprises here. It has Nova and Xavier as "locks," and SHU as "should be in." Creighton, Butler, Providence, and Marquette are in the "work to do" category. About MU:
No Big East team better exemplifies the "work to do" label than Marquette, which has a long way to go before it will be considered solidly in the field. Still, a win at home against Seton Hall at least gives Marquette a cornerstone, of sorts. Now Marquette must build the edifice around it with, say, a win or two in upcoming road games at Seton Hall, St. John's and Creighton.
So Gasaway thinks MU is still alive if they go 1-2 in their next three. Which, I would agree with, assuming they go 4-0 in the last 4.
I also think Butler and Creighton have pretty much locked up their bids at this point. They should be in the "should be in" category.
Nebraska is done with the top four, and only plays one more game against teams that are.500 or better in conference, and that 6-6 Penn St at home. They also still have Rutgers and Illinois who are combined 4-20 in conference. Yes that's a lot of opportunities for bad losses but I think their path to the tourney is easier than ours. Even if they only go 4-2 in their last six, I don't see a P6 team that went 12-6 in conference getting left out no matter how bad the B10 is this year.
Ehh. Like I said, this has been discussed at length in the Becky thread. Here are a few reasons Nebraska won't get in with a 4-2 (12-6) finish.
-Non con SOS of 272. I think only a handful of teams have ever gotten an at large with a non con SOS that bad.
-Their best noncon win is Boston college at home. Their second best noncon win is Long Beach State. They lost to everyone else that is worth a damn - MSU, Creighton and Kansas - and a couple questionable losses in UCF and St. Johns.
-They played really easy mirror games in the B10. Rutgers twice, Wisconsin twice, Penn State twice, Illinois twice, and Minnesota twice. Didn't play anyone good 2x.
-Their only league win worth a damn is at home vs. Michigan. They've lost to every other team that projects to be in the dance and have lost to three teams who don't have a prayer at the dance.
-Their best two opportunities good wins the rest of the way is vs. Maryland (RPI: 55) and @ Minnesota (RPI: 119). A loss to Rutgers or Illinois would be disastrous. Heck, Minnesota has to be close to that category now. Wins versus Indiana and Penn State aren't moving the needle.
-Computer numbers aren't good with their RPI and kenpom around 60 with basically no opportunities to improve those without going 5-1 or better.
Moral of the story....they are about the most hollow 17-8 as possible in a power conference. I tend to agree that I don't see the committee leaving out a 13-5 B10 team, but that requires 5-1 down the stretch. I don't think they get in at 12-6 because they haven't beaten anyone, and a few decent opponents in noncon, the rest of their schedule was absolute dog sh*t.
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Ehh. Like I said, this has been discussed at length in the Becky thread. Here are a few reasons Nebraska won't get in with a 4-2 (12-6) finish.
-Non con SOS of 272. I think only a handful of teams have ever gotten an at large with a non con SOS that bad.
-Their best noncon win is Boston college at home. Their second best noncon win is Long Beach State. They lost to everyone else that is worth a damn - MSU, Creighton and Kansas - and a couple questionable losses in UCF and St. Johns.
-They played really easy mirror games in the B10. Rutgers twice, Wisconsin twice, Penn State twice, Illinois twice, and Minnesota twice. Didn't play anyone good 2x.
-Their only league win worth a damn is at home vs. Michigan. They've lost to every other team that projects to be in the dance and have lost to three teams who don't have a prayer at the dance.
-Their best two opportunities good wins the rest of the way is vs. Maryland (RPI: 55) and @ Minnesota (RPI: 119). A loss to Rutgers or Illinois would be disastrous. Heck, Minnesota has to be close to that category now. Wins versus Indiana and Penn State aren't moving the needle.
-Computer numbers aren't good with their RPI and kenpom around 60 with basically no opportunities to improve those without going 5-1 or better.
Moral of the story....they are about the most hollow 17-8 as possible in a power conference. I tend to agree that I don't see the committee leaving out a 13-5 B10 team, but that requires 5-1 down the stretch. I don't think they get in at 12-6 because they haven't beaten anyone, and a few decent opponents in noncon, the rest of their schedule was absolute dog sh*t.
Won't disagree that their out of conference SOS is bad, but they can't control who they get as doubles in conference, so it would be harsh to punish them for that. St. Johns is really their only bad loss considering Palm has UCF in his first four out. Historically weak B10, historically weak bubble, a marquee win (It only takes one) and passing the eye test should have them dancing with a 4-2 finish.
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Won't disagree that their out of conference SOS is bad, but they can't control who they get as doubles in conference, so it would be harsh to punish them for that. St. Johns is really their only bad loss considering Palm has UCF in his first four out. Historically weak B10, historically weak bubble, a marquee win (It only takes one) and passing the eye test should have them dancing with a 4-2 finish.
You're right, they aren't in control of who they play 2x in conference. But the committee can certainly punish them for it. Just like they punish teams every year for playing piss poor schedules. If they wanted to dance, they should have actually beaten the good teams on their schedule, which they didn't.
If you think Nebraska is dancing at 12-6, you surely think Marquette is a stone cold lock at 9-9.
FWIW, at 4-2 assuming losses @ Minnesota and vs. Maryland, the two games they have the lowest projected probability to win, gives them an RPI of 60 and SOS of 103 heading into B10 tournament. MU's numbers would be significantly better at any combo of 9-9.
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You're right, they aren't in control of who they play 2x in conference. But the committee can certainly punish them for it. Just like they punish teams every year for playing piss poor schedules. If they wanted to dance, they should have actually beaten the good teams on their schedule, which they didn't.
If you think Nebraska is dancing at 12-6, you surely think Marquette is a stone cold lock at 9-9.
FWIW, at 4-2 assuming losses @ Minnesota and vs. Maryland, the two games they have the lowest projected probability to win, gives them an RPI of 60 and SOS of 103 heading into B10 tournament. MU's numbers would be significantly better at any combo of 9-9.
I wouldn't use the term stone cold lock, but I think 9-9 gets us in, and keeps us out of Dayton
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I wouldn't use the term stone cold lock, but I think 9-9 gets us in, and keeps us out of Dayton
Yah, that was a bit of an exaggeration. But yah, I tend to agree. 4 days ago I thought 9-9 may keep MU out of Dayton, at this point, I am more resigned to the fact that Dayton may be in the cards should we get to 9-9.
In any event, its going to be really interesting to see how the committee values and ranks these teams. Because after about the top 30-35 teams (8/9 seeds), things get really ugly in a hurry in terms of actual resumes.
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The inaugural edition of the Bubble Watch on si.com does a pretty good job of summing up MU's situation, including the last sentence:
"The Golden Eagles have taken a nosedive of late, losing four straight games to fall to 4-7 in the Big East. There’s no shame in losing to Xavier, Villanova, Butler or Providence, but this was Marquette’s opportunity to prove it belonged in the field of 68, especially with the latter three of those games at home. It has just three games remaining in the regular season against likely tournament teams and two of those are on the road at Seton Hall and Creighton. They’ll need to win at least one of those—and possibly the home game with Creighton, as well—plus handle business in games with St. John’s, DePaul and Georgetown to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. The chances of all of that happening are slim."
Another perspective on this comes from the rpiforecast site. After the win over Seton Hall, that site projected MU's likely conference mark at 10-8. After losing 5 of the last 6, including 3 home games, that projection has fallen to 7-11. They put MU's chances of reaching 9-9 or better at just 15%. Add in the possibility of winning a game or two in BET and that probability would drop down to 5% or less.
So, there is a chance, but not a good one, and that chance could be completely gone before the next home game.
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The inaugural edition of the Bubble Watch on si.com does a pretty good job of summing up MU's situation, including the last sentence:
"The Golden Eagles have taken a nosedive of late, losing four straight games to fall to 4-7 in the Big East. There’s no shame in losing to Xavier, Villanova, Butler or Providence, but this was Marquette’s opportunity to prove it belonged in the field of 68, especially with the latter three of those games at home. It has just three games remaining in the regular season against likely tournament teams and two of those are on the road at Seton Hall and Creighton. They’ll need to win at least one of those—and possibly the home game with Creighton, as well—plus handle business in games with St. John’s, DePaul and Georgetown to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. The chances of all of that happening are slim."
Another perspective on this comes from the rpiforecast site. After the win over Seton Hall, that site projected MU's likely conference mark at 10-8. After losing 5 of the last 6, including 3 home games, that projection has fallen to 7-11. They put MU's chances of reaching 9-9 or better at just 15%. Add in the possibility of winning a game or two in BET and that probability would drop down to 5% or less.
So, there is a chance, but not a good one, and that chance could be completely gone before the next home game.
I think that is fair, he basically says they need to go 6-1 to feel really good, and 5-2 to have a shot. Which is pretty much exactly what a group of us have been saying for weeks (ie: 10-8 is a lock; 9-9 gives you a good chance).
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I think that is fair, he basically says they need to go 5-1 to feel really good, and 4-2 to have a shot. Which is pretty much exactly what a group of us have been saying for weeks (ie: 10-8 is a lock; 9-9 gives you a good chance).
I think the big change is that for weeks (and as recently as just before the Butler game) 10-8 or 9-9 looked like a reasonably attainable goal. Now it looks like a long shot, and it's hard to get too excited about the possibility until MU wins at least one more game to show that they aren't in a death spiral.
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I think the big change is that for weeks (and as recently as just before the Butler game) 10-8 or 9-9 looked like a reasonably attainable goal. Now it looks like a long shot, and it's hard to get too excited about the possibility until MU wins at least one more game to show that they aren't in a death spiral.
Yep this is where I'm at. We need to win 1 of the next 2. I really, truly believe we win our last 4 games. I think we matchup well with Creighton and beat them at home. And I think SJU at home is a win and GT and DP just are not very good.
If we can somehow find a way to win tomorrow I really believe we will make the tournament. I just think it's very unlikely and @ SJU is not a gimme.
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I think the big change is that for weeks (and as recently as just before the Butler game) 10-8 or 9-9 looked like a reasonably attainable goal. Now it looks like a long shot, and it's hard to get too excited about the possibility until MU wins at least one more game to show that they aren't in a death spiral.
Obviously. I'm not sure I call 9-9 a complete long shot, but 10-8 is. We've played really good teams 9 of the last 10 games and went 3-7. We play really good teams 3 of the next 7. I think 5-2 is reasonably attainable, but obviously we need to play better ball then we have since the 9 day layoff.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the committee also look at how you've played recently? So if we were to get to 9-9 we would have finished 5-2, and be a team that is trending upwards. I realize that they would also look and see that a lot of those wins would likely come against non tournament teams, but Beast wins are Beast wins.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the committee also look at how you've played recently? So if we were to get to 9-9 we would have finished 5-2, and be a team that is trending upwards. I realize that they would also look and see that a lot of those wins would likely come against non tournament teams, but Beast wins are Beast wins.
I know that they have in the past, but not sure if still a part of their analysis. It doesn't appear to show on the team sheets.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-03-03/what-team-sheet-inside-march-madness-selection-tool (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-03-03/what-team-sheet-inside-march-madness-selection-tool)
In any event, if MU finish 5-2, gets the 7 seed and goes 1-1 in the BET, they'll be 6-4 in their last 10. Not sure that trend is enough to give them much of a boost. All of MU's boost is going to be a great SOS and a pretty good RPI and Kenpom considering the record. And theoretically no bad losses.
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Yep this is where I'm at. We need to win 1 of the next 2. I really, truly believe we win our last 4 games. I think we matchup well with Creighton and beat them at home. And I think SJU at home is a win and GT and DP just are not very good.
If we can somehow find a way to win tomorrow I really believe we will make the tournament. I just think it's very unlikely and @ SJU is not a gimme.
Creighton will be a terrible matchup. Howard and Rowsey vs Thomas and Foster. If Wojo puts Sacar on one of them, then either Howard or Rowsey goes against Mintz or another SF. Worst guard matchups all year for MU.
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Creighton will be a terrible matchup. Howard and Rowsey vs Thomas and Foster. If Wojo puts Sacar on one of them, then either Howard or Rowsey goes against Mintz or another SF. Worst guard matchups all year for MU.
Yeah but they don't really have anybody that can abuse MU in the paint. Which is generally prior to the PC game where we've gotten killed.
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That would be cool, but would never happen. This year I don't see any way that the B14 doesn't get at least 5 teams, as poor as their SOS is, if they are the fifth best team in a P6 league, they'll get a bid, as undeserving as at may seem.
Maryland's resume right now is terrible. Their RPI is okay, but their SOS is weak and they only have one current Quadrant 1/2 win. That's worse than anyone else on the bubble by far. They also don't project to play any more Quadrant 1 games (though Michigan at home is really close). They likely need to win out to get an at-large.
Nebraska is in a similar boat. No Q1 wins and no more opportunities. In fact, as things currently project, they only play one more Q2 game, and that's Maryland. Nebraska might be able to sneak in if they go 5-1 with the only loss to Maryland, but even at 13-5 they would clearly behind a team like Boise State that surprisingly has a much stronger resume despite the conference disparity.
In 2008, the Big 10 only got 4 bids. I think there's a real chance they match that this year unless Nebraska or Maryland win out. Of course, the problem there is they do play each other, so one will have to lose.
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Creighton will be a terrible matchup. Howard and Rowsey vs Thomas and Foster. If Wojo puts Sacar on one of them, then either Howard or Rowsey goes against Mintz or another SF. Worst guard matchups all year for MU.
Sacar on Foster. Elliott/Hauser on Thomas. Hide Rowsey/Howard on Mintz and don't play them together very often. If you do play them together, try to stash one of them on Hegner and see what happens.
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Obviously. I'm not sure I call 9-9 a complete long shot, but 10-8 is. We've played really good teams 9 of the last 10 games and went 3-7. We play really good teams 3 of the next 7. I think 5-2 is reasonably attainable, but obviously we need to play better ball then we have since the 9 day layoff.
The other thing to remember is that at 9-9 MU would probably have the 7 seed in the BET, unless the bottom teams suddenly start winning games against the top 6 (they have an oh-fer so far). That would mean a game (likely against St. John’s) that would have only bad loss potential. So, they probably have to get to 10-9 to stay alive and maybe win 3 against St. John’s.
I also think that the game against Georgetown is going to be tougher than people seem to think. GU has played Creighton and Xavier very tough on the road in the last week, and it’s not like MU blew them out the first time. Plus, that game is a quick turnaround from the Saturday game at DePaul.
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The other thing to remember is that at 9-9 MU would probably have the 7 seed in the BET, unless the bottom teams suddenly start winning games against the top 6 (they have an oh-fer so far). That would mean a game (likely against St. John’s) that would have only bad loss potential. So, they probably have to get to 10-9 to stay alive and maybe win 3 against St. John’s.
I also think that the game against Georgetown is going to be tougher than people seem to think. GU has played Creighton and Xavier very tough on the road in the last week, and it’s not like MU blew them out the first time. Plus, that game is a quick turnaround from the Saturday game at DePaul.
I don't think anyone thinks @SJU or @Gtown is going to be a cakewalk. They're just games MU needs to win if they want to dance. I think they can afford to lose one of those if they take 2/3 from Hall and Creighton (2). Don't think it really matters how we get to 9-9. Road losses at SJU or Georgetown aren't absolute killers...losing at Depaul may be.
I could see SJU getting 2 wins and Depaul losing out and SJU getting the 9 seed and Depaul the 10 (not sure how tie breaker would shake out). I agree that beating SJU @ the Garden after theoretically beating them twice in the previous few weeks would be tough.
But...none of this will matter if they don't get to 9.
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Sacar on Foster. Elliott/Hauser on Thomas. Hide Rowsey/Howard on Mintz and don't play them together very often. If you do play them together, try to stash one of them on Hegner and see what happens.
Or just put up 102 on creighton like last year.
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Lots of bubble action tonight:
Alabama (9 seed) @ Miss State
South Carolina @ Arkansas (10 seed)
TCU (8 seed; but loss drops them to 4-7 in B12) @ Kansas
Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota
Missouri (10 seed) @ Ole Miss
Boise State (last 4 in) @ New Mexico
More fringe bubble games:
Baylor @ Okla State (both well behind cutline currently, but could play way back onto bubble)
BC @ Notre Dame (both long shots at this point)
UCF @ Cinci
Buffalo (potential bid stealer) @ Cent Mich
Arkansas won. UCF lost. Bama is going to lose.
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Maryland @ Penn State
LSU @ Florida (LSU winning still decent for RPI)
Kansas State @ Texas
Georgia @ Vanderbilt (Wouldn't mind Georgia winning but a loss probably drops them off the bubble)
Texas A&M @ Auburn
NC State @ Virginia Tech (both bubble teams, probably cheering for NC State)
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Adding one more that I think has ramifications:
Marquette @ Seton Hall
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Lots of bubble action tonight:
Alabama (9 seed) @ Miss State
South Carolina @ Arkansas (10 seed)
TCU (8 seed; but loss drops them to 4-7 in B12) @ Kansas
Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota
Missouri (10 seed) @ Ole Miss
Boise State (last 4 in) @ New Mexico
More fringe bubble games:
Baylor @ Okla State (both well behind cutline currently, but could play way back onto bubble)
BC @ Notre Dame (both long shots at this point)
UCF @ Cinci
Buffalo (potential bid stealer) @ Cent Mich
Losses: Alabama, TCU, Minnesota (they're toast), BC, UCF
wins: Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Boise state, Notre Dame, Buffalo.
Solid bubble day. Nebraska's case gets more interesting by the game. Notre Dame stops a 7 game skid. Buffalo takes care of business, but is a longgggggg shot for an at large. TCU drops to to 4-7 (sound familiar?). UCF gets absolutely embarrassed by Cinci...that'll knock them down several rungs. Boise State escapes Albuquerque with a W after being down 6 with a minute or so to go. Absolute collapse by NM. Boise State looked....not good.
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Thanks for putting these together every day. Gives me more reasons to watch basketball. Always good.
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Maryland @ Penn State
LSU @ Florida (LSU winning still decent for RPI)
Kansas State @ Texas
Georgia @ Vanderbilt (Wouldn't mind Georgia winning but a loss probably drops them off the bubble)
Texas A&M @ Auburn
NC State @ Virginia Tech (both bubble teams, probably cheering for NC State)
Maryland and LSU both lost. Kansas State got a nice win. That'll push Texas down further towards the edge of the bubble.
Texas AM up 10 on Auburn. Would be a huge win.
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Georgia loses at Vandy. That should bump them off the bubble for now.
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VT is going to take care of NC State.
Texas AM up 3 at Auburn with a couple minutes left.
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Huge win for A&M. Bottom of the bubble is strengthening a bit, although the last 6-7 spots still look pretty weak.
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VT is going to take care of NC State.
Texas AM up 3 at Auburn with a couple minutes left.
TAMU wins on a free throw made by Duane Wilson :)
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TAMU wins on a free throw made by Duane Wilson :)
Knew he had a knee injury but i didnt know he was playing on a torn ACL!!
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Today's Bubble Action
Houston @ SMU (Last 4 in vs. First 4 out)
UCLA @ Arizona (cheering hard for an Arizona win here)
Washington (10 seed) @ Oregon
USC @ Arizona State (Last 4 in vs. 9 seed). Cheer for ASU but if they lose they are sliding dangerously close to the bubble.
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Adding to that
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (10 seed)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ FAU
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Adding to that
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (10 seed)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ FAU
I omitted the GT game on purpose because I think their resume is solid, but not sure how I missed WKU. Thanks for the add
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Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).
Thoughts?
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Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).
Thoughts?
One way to do that would be to take the last four byes, last four in, first four out, and next four out from Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, or another bracket of your choosing. You could also throw in teams with 9 seeds and higher.
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Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).
Thoughts?
I'd use Bracket Matrix (updates daily) and do the last 8 in and first 8 out.
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I omitted the GT game on purpose because I think their resume is solid, but not sure how I missed WKU. Thanks for the add
Louisville is the team on the bubble. GT is not.
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Today's Bubble Action
Houston @ SMU (Last 4 in vs. First 4 out)
UCLA @ Arizona (cheering hard for an Arizona win here)
Washington (10 seed) @ Oregon
USC @ Arizona State (Last 4 in vs. 9 seed). Cheer for ASU but if they lose they are sliding dangerously close to the bubble.
Adding to that
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (10 seed)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ FAU
I'd also add the following:
Rice @ Middle Tennessee (potential bid steal along with Western Kentucky out of CUSA)
Louisiana Lafayette @ Georgia State (Ragin' Cajuns long shot bid stealer)
Stanford @ Utah (Utah is a ways from the cutline, but a loss pushes them further; Stanford's noncon too horrible to be close to bubble despite 7-4 P12 record)
Belmont @ Tennessee State (Belmont long shot bid stealer)
CSU Bakersfield @ New Mexico State (surprised there isn't more chatter about New Mexico State - I like their resume far more than Boise State; I think they'd have a shot at Dayton if they run the table in the WAC and lose in the WAC tourney)
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Great listings! Shouldn't the bubble team be in the bold?
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Great listings! Shouldn't the bubble team be in the bold?
We've been listing team to root for in bold.
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Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).
Thoughts?
You don't need to create them, NCAA publishes them (updated Feb 6 currently)...
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Feb.%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf
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We've been listing team to root for in bold.
Ohhh, make sense!
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Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).
Thoughts?
I did some analysis this afternoon and thought I'd share...
32 AQs (current projected AQ in bold)
36 at larges.
Locks (using the term lightly, but these are teams that are locks, or would need to absolutely implode down the stretch to not get an at large): Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Xavier, Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Clemson, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee, UNC, Arizona, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kentucky, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Miami, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Florida, Creighton, Butler, Florida State, Michigan, Texas (30)
For sure 1 bid leagues: Missouri Valley, Southern, Summit, Ohio Valley, Big Sky, Colonial, Horizon, Patriot, Metro Atlantic, Big West, Atlantic Sun, Northeast, Ivy, Big South, Southland, Mid-Eastern, SWAC (17)
Potential Bid Stealers (in order of likelihood of at large): Nevada (MWC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Boise State (MWC), Western Kentucky (CUSA), New Mexico State (WAC), Buffalo (MAC), Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt), Vermont (American East) (8)
If Conference tourney go chalk, there should be 15 at large bids for "bubble teams". By chalk I mean teams that would otherwise get an at large if they don't win the AQ win their conference tournament. That is best scenario for bubble teams.
Now if you assume roughly half of the top 8 conference have someone win the AQ that wouldn't otherwise get a bid (probably high) and all of the potential bid stealers lose in their conference tournament, there would be 11 at large bids for "bubble teams".
Bubble teams*: TCU, Nevada, Providence, Alabama, Arizona State, Texas A&M, Louisville, Missouri, Arkansas, USC, Washington, [CUTLINE WITH LOTS OF BID STEALERS] Marquette, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Houston, [CUTLINE IF CONF TOURNEYS GO CHALK] UCLA, Nebraska, NC State, K State, SMU, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Utah, Buffalo, Louisiana, Vermont (29)
So I'd say there are roughly 29 teams still on the bubble (from fairly safely in at the moment to very fringe), and somewhere between 11-15 will get at large bids depending on how conference tournaments go.
*The order in which I list the bubble teams is based primarily off the current version of Bracket Matrix, however, I did make some adjustments based on my own opinion of watching way too much CBB and paying way too much attention to this stuff. So, take it FWIW.
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Loyola Chicago has at-large potential. Currently leading the Valley and favored in their last five. If they win out, they'll enter their conference tournament with an RPI of 31. If the tournament goes chalk, but they drop the final, it would be 35.
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Loyola Chicago has at-large potential. Currently leading the Valley and favored in their last five. If they win out, they'll enter their conference tournament with an RPI of 31. If the tournament goes chalk, but they drop the final, it would be 35.
Then do we talk a Loyola Chicago Depaul swap for the Big East?
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Loyola Chicago has at-large potential. Currently leading the Valley and favored in their last five. If they win out, they'll enter their conference tournament with an RPI of 31. If the tournament goes chalk, but they drop the final, it would be 35.
I think they have to win the autobid. They'll have a great RPI, but the 131 SOS and 2-3 record vs Quadrant 1/2 teams while also having 2 Quadrant 4 losses will likely sink any at-large hopes they may have. That Florida win is decent, but it's pretty much their entire resume.
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I'd also add the following:
Rice @ Middle Tennessee (potential bid steal along with Western Kentucky out of CUSA)
Louisiana Lafayette @ Georgia State (Ragin' Cajuns long shot bid stealer)
Stanford @ Utah (Utah is a ways from the cutline, but a loss pushes them further; Stanford's noncon too horrible to be close to bubble despite 7-4 P12 record)
Belmont @ Tennessee State (Belmont long shot bid stealer)
CSU Bakersfield @ New Mexico State (surprised there isn't more chatter about New Mexico State - I like their resume far more than Boise State; I think they'd have a shot at Dayton if they run the table in the WAC and lose in the WAC tourney)
Louisiana lost. MTSU won. Utah is going to win. Louisville won.
Good day for our non con opponents. Vermont, MSM, EIU all win
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Loyola (IL) Resume:
50 RPI
72 SOS
Tier 1: 1-1
Tier 2: 1-2
Tier 3: 11-0
Tier 4: 6-2
Best Wins: @Florida (48), @Illinois St (78), Wright St (94), Bradley (105), Missouri State (109)
Worst Losses: @Milwaukee (258), Indiana State (170), @Missouri St (109), @Bradley (105), @Boise St (31)
At Florida is a nice win....but anytime home wins against Wright State, Bradley, and Missouri State are in your 5 best wins, that's a problem. Combine that with 4 sub 100 RPI losses....you are probably going to need an autobid.
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UCLA is going to beat Arizona which probably puts them solidly ahead of us. Arizona has looked absolutely terrible every time I've watched them this year.
SMU lost to Houston. Not sure if that's the preferred result for us but I'd assume were safely ahead of SMU now.
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Loyola (IL) Resume:
50 RPI
72 SOS
Tier 1: 1-1
Tier 2: 1-2
Tier 3: 11-0
Tier 4: 6-2
Best Wins: @Florida (48), @Illinois St (78), Wright St (94), Bradley (105), Missouri State (109)
Worst Losses: @Milwaukee (258), Indiana State (170), @Missouri St (109), @Bradley (105), @Boise St (31)
At Florida is a nice win....but anytime home wins against Wright State, Bradley, and Missouri State are in your 5 best wins, that's a problem. Combine that with 4 sub 100 RPI losses....you are probably going to need an autobid.
So this is not the MVC that had outside shots of 3-4 bids some years it's basically the shattered reminents
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UCLA wins. Bad.
Washington is going to lose. Good!
USC/ASU tbd.
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ASU finishes the game on a 9-0 run in the last 2 minutes to beat USC by 2. Fun game
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You don't need to create them, NCAA publishes them (updated Feb 6 currently)...
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Feb.%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf
oh
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UCLA is going to beat Arizona which probably puts them solidly ahead of us. Arizona has looked absolutely terrible every time I've watched them this year.
SMU lost to Houston. Not sure if that's the preferred result for us but I'd assume were safely ahead of SMU now.
Agree with you on U of A. Gotta wonder if Miller has what it takes as a game coach. He has talent, that center is a beast and Trier is the real deal. His teams tend to underachieve.
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I reaaally don't know where to post this. And this is 100% not the right spot. And it maybe should be Superbar.
But I think everyone here should know that I am at a bar right now with my gf with a live band, and I remember someone posting recently and asking about Freeway and if he was alive or where he was.
Well he is here. Alive and well, and literally singing every word of every song at this concert.
If that's not a good omen for tomorrow, I don't know what is.
FREEWAY! I'm gonna go buy him a drink.
Definitely bubble watch 2018
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Freeway is often seen at Goolsby's or at the BC. Pix?
Oh, and start a new thread...
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I reaaally don't know where to post this. And this is 100% not the right spot. And it maybe should be Superbar.
But I think everyone here should know that I am at a bar right now with my gf with a live band, and I remember someone posting recently and asking about Freeway and if he was alive or where he was.
Well he is here. Alive and well, and literally singing every word of every song at this concert.
If that's not a good omen for tomorrow, I don't know what is.
FREEWAY! I'm gonna go buy him a drink.
Definitely bubble watch 2018
Bro, don’t do it. You are about to lose a half hour of your life that you’ll never get back.
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Bro, don’t do it. You are about to lose a half hour of your life that you’ll never get back.
I was walking out of a MU game a few years back and his car was parked near mine. Talked to me for 20 or 30 minutes despite my obvious attempts to leave
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I reaaally don't know where to post this. And this is 100% not the right spot. And it maybe should be Superbar.
But I think everyone here should know that I am at a bar right now with my gf with a live band, and I remember someone posting recently and asking about Freeway and if he was alive or where he was.
Well he is here. Alive and well, and literally singing every word of every song at this concert.
If that's not a good omen for tomorrow, I don't know what is.
FREEWAY! I'm gonna go buy him a drink.
Definitely bubble watch 2018
Is he still talking to you?
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I came on here to find today’s bubble action and no one had done it yet, so...
Oklahoma St @ West Virginia
Temple @ South Florida
North Carolina @ NC State
Mississippi St @ Missouri (Missouri win makes it really tough for MSU, but a loss pushes them closer to the bubble)
Loyola-Chicago @ Indiana State (Long shot bid stealer)
Auburn @ Georgia (but a Georgia win helps the RPI)
Rutgers @ Nebraska
Ole Miss @ LSU
DePaul @ Providence
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure
North Texas @ MTSU
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
UCLA @ Arizona St (though an ASU loss pushes them towards the bubble)
Princeton @ Dartmouth
FIU @ Western Kentucky
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Boise State @ Utah State
I hope I got them all!
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I came on here to find today’s bubble action and no one had done it yet, so...
Oklahoma St @ West Virginia
Temple @ South Florida
North Carolina @ NC State
Mississippi St @ Missouri (Missouri win makes it really tough for MSU, but a loss pushes them closer to the bubble)
Loyola-Chicago @ Indiana State (Long shot bid stealer)
Auburn @ Georgia (but a Georgia win helps the RPI)
Rutgers @ Nebraska
Ole Miss @ LSU
DePaul @ Providence
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure
North Texas @ MTSU
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
UCLA @ Arizona St (though an ASU loss pushes them towards the bubble)
Princeton @ Dartmouth
FIU @ Western Kentucky
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Boise State @ Utah State
I hope I got them all!
Thanks! Regarding PC - at this point I think they’re pretty much in baring completely collapse.
I can also never find myself rooting for DePaul against potential Big East tourney teams (or Gtown or SJU, really). All it does is lessen chance of 7 bids, and we’re most likely going to be the 7th if we get to 9-9, so...
That being said, it’d be great for SJU to finish in 9th to lessen chance of having to play the Johnnies on their home court in the BET opener. Much rather play DePaul and then X.
Guessing PC beats us in current tie breaker, though that’s just a guess. Obviously 6 seed would be nice. Get to 10-8, 6 seed shouldn’t be a problem.
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afraid its time for the mods to lock and remove this thread. The boys just down have what its takes...DEFENSE!
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Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1
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Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1
Not gonna happen.
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No nice way of saying this, but this thread isn't relevant to MU any more.
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Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1
Only way and we have Creighton twice.
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Only way and we have Creighton twice.
Yep. Not easy but doable. We had to win our last four last year in order to make it and did.
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*pop!*
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now i will look for player development. I use to think that wojo couldn't do that either, but I have seen growth in Sam, Elliot, Cain and Theo. (Minus today).
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Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1
I would say 5-1. 9-9 followed by a loss in the first round of the BET is likely not going to cut it.
Not to mention that it’s really hard to see MU winning 4 of the next 5 considering that all but 1 of them are against teams that look a lot better than MU right now.
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Yep. Not easy but doable. We had to win our last four last year in order to make it and did.
This team does not have what it takes. Too many weak links. We are exactly what our record is, a sub par Big East team.
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I came on here to find today’s bubble action and no one had done it yet, so...
Oklahoma St @ West Virginia - Oklahoma St WINS
Temple @ South Florida - Temple WINS
North Carolina @ NC State - NC State LOSES
Mississippi St @ Missouri (Missouri win makes it really tough for MSU, but a loss pushes them closer to the bubble) - Mississippi State LOSES
Loyola-Chicago @ Indiana State (Long shot bid stealer) Loyola WINS
Auburn @ Georgia (but a Georgia win helps the RPI) - Georgia LOSES
Rutgers @ Nebraska - Nebraska WINS
Ole Miss @ LSU - LSU WINS
DePaul @ Providence - Providence LOSES (wtf?)
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure - STB WINS
North Texas @ MTSU - MTSU WINS
Virginia Tech @ Virginia - VT WINS
UCLA @ Arizona St (though an ASU loss pushes them towards the bubble)
Princeton @ Dartmouth
FIU @ Western Kentucky
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Boise State @ Utah State
I hope I got them all!
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Washington, Boise State, USC all lost. Bubble teams losing everywhere.
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Not sure where Palm had MU before this weekend, but looks like he left Marquette off bubble?
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
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Not sure where Palm had MU before this weekend, but looks like he left Marquette off bubble?
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Covered earlier in the thread. CBS only includes teams that are 4 games above .500....even if most other bracketoligies have them in.
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Today's watch, because I haven't given up hope yet, dammit!
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Wake Forest at Syracuse
Cincinnati at SMU
Tulane at Houston
Washington State at Oregon
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Today's watch, because I haven't given up hope yet, dammit!
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Wake Forest at Syracuse
Cincinnati at SMU
Tulane at Houston
Washington State at Oregon
The fact that Oregon and SMU (to a lesser extent) are on this list just proves how bad the bubble is.
Also, I looked at some of the brackets updated today on bracket matrix. Most have us in the first four out. We're still right there.
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Notre Dame @ UNC
Baylor @ Texas
TCU is now an 8 seed on Bracket Matrix so I have excluded them.
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Just for sh*ts and giggles, here are the last 8 teams in the tournament per Lunardi's update this morning and their remaining schedules (with T-Ranks expected results):
Arkansas (17-8; 6-6)
RPI: 35; Kenpom: 45; SOS: 35
@ Ole Miss (W 55%)
vs. Texas A&M (W 56%)
vs. Kentucky (W 59%)
@ Alabama (L 65%)
vs. Auburn (L 56%)
@ Mizzou (L 67%)
Heading into SEC tourney: (20-11 (9-9)) RPI: 40; SOS: 33
Providence (16-9; 7-5)
RPI: 42; Kenpom: 74; SOS: 28
vs. Villanova (L 80%)
@ Butler (L 82%)
vs. Seton Hall (L 51%)
@ Georgetown (L 54%)
vs. Xavier (L 84%)
vs. St. Johns (W 65%)
Heading into Big East Tourney: (17-14 (8-10)) RPI: 59: SOS: 17
USC (17-9; (8-5))
RPI: 50; SOS: 40; Kenpom: 47
vs. Oregon (W 70%)
vs. Oregon State (W 79%)
@ Colorado (W 58%)
@ Utah (L 59%)
vs. UCLA (W 65%)
Heading into P12 tourney: (20-11 (12-6)) RPI: 46; SOS: 38
Washington (17-8; (7-5))
RPI: 46; SOS: 42; Kenpom: 98
vs. Utah (W 51%)
vs. Colorado (W 66%)
@ Stanford (L 68%)
@ CAL (W 71%)
vs. Oregon St. (W 64%)
vs. Oregon (W 52%)
Heading into P12 Tourney: 22-9 (12-6) RPI: 39; SOS: 60
Virginia Tech (18-7; (7-5))
RPI:56; SOS:88; Kenpom: 40
@ Duke (L 87%)
@ Georgia Tech (W 61%)
vs. Clemson (L 50%)
vs. Louisville (W 55%)
vs. Duke (L 69%)
@ Miami (L 66%)
Heading into ACC tourney: (20-11 (9-9)) RPI: 60; SOS: 64
UCLA (17-8; (8-5))
RPI:53; SOS: 59: Kenpom: 49
vs. Oregon State (W 79%)
vs. Oregon (W 69%)
@ Utah (L 60%)
@ Colorado (W 57%)
@ USC (L 65%)
Heading into P12 tourney: (20-10 (11-7)) RPI: 48; SOS: 57
Kansas State (17-8; (6-6))
RPI: 66; SOS: 80; Kenpom: 56
@ Ok State (L 64%)
vs. Iowa State (W 75%)
vs. Texas (W 57%)
@ Oklahoma (L 74%)
@ TCU (L 76%)
vs. Baylor (W 54%)
Heading into B12 Tourney: (20-11 (9-9)) RPI: 62; SOS: 76
NC State (16-9; (6-6))
RPI: 72; SOS: 56; Kenpom: 59
@ Syracuse (L 70%)
@ Wake Forest (L 55%)
vs. BC (W 70%)
vs. Florida State (L 52%)
@ Georgia tech (W 53%)
vs. Louisville (L 53%)
Heading into ACC Tourney: (18-13 (8-10)) RPI: 96; SOS: 69
As they compare to Marquette:
Marquette (14-11 (5-8))
RPI: 65; SOS: 16; Kenpom: 50
@ Creighton (L 73%)
vs. SJU (W 72%)
@ Depaul (W 56%)
@ Georgetown (W 54%)
vs. Creighton (W 54%)
Heading into Big East tourney: (18-12 (9-9)) RPI: 56; SOS: 27
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Based on projected results, I'd say we'd have a clearly better resume (at end of regular season) than NC State and Kansas State.
A bit better than Providence.
On par with UCLA, Arkansas and Virginia Tech.
USC and Washington's resumes would be the top 2 out of this sampling of teams, IMO.
Obviously this doesn't show other teams around the bubble but currently projected as in like Houston, Texas, Missouri, Louisville, TCU...but I think those teams are safely inside the bubble at the moment.
Or teams in Lunardi's first 8 outs...Boise state, Nebraska, St. Bonnie, Syracuse, Utah, Temple, Mississippi State and Western Kentucky. But the point is...win the games you're supposed to win and you'll still be right there.
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Thanks for all this work though I doubt it will quell the negativos. I was surprised by how poor VPI's projected profile was considering what I perceived their bid worthiness to be. Also thought it was odd that Lunardi moved them down after their big victory.
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Thanks for all this work though I doubt it will quell the negativos. I was surprised by how poor VPI's projected profile was considering what I perceived their bid worthiness to be. Also thought it was odd that Lunardi moved them down after their big victory.
Their noncon schedule was awful. Other than beating a good not great UNC team at home, their resume was pretty pedestrian...until Saturday. That win will get them in barring a sub .500 ACC record.
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Notre Dame @ UNC
Baylor @ Texas
TCU is now an 8 seed on Bracket Matrix so I have excluded them.
After looking i think it'd be better for Texas to beat Baylor. Texas is a 9 seed. Baylor is next 4 out
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TCU and ND lose. Baylor beats Texas in OT. Can't decide if that's the better of two results for us. Going with yes because Baylor is likely still out and this pushes Texas down towards the bubble. Now 5-8 in conference.
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Based on projected results, I'd say we'd have a clearly better resume (at end of regular season) than NC State and Kansas State.
You'd be hard pressed to find a team that has three better wins (neutral win over Zona, Duke, @ UNC) than NC State. Just sayin.
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Kansas @ Iowa State (Iowa State isn't that close, but a win here would get them closer)
Texas A&M @ Missouri (Missouri safely in for now (top 9 seed on bracket matrix), but a Tex A&M W would be preferred result)
Maryland @ Nebraska (both bubble teams, Nebraska closer to being in. Can't image Maryland getting in regardless - both next four our on bracket matric)
Arkansas @ Ole Miss (Arkansas last 9 seed on bracket mastrix)
St. Bonnie @ LaSalle (St. Bonnie next four out)
LSU @ Alabama (Alabama 8 seed; LSU a fringy bubble team. I think we'd prefer an LSU win, but either result would be fine)
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Kansas @ Iowa State (Iowa State isn't that close, but a win here would get them closer)
Texas A&M @ Missouri (Missouri safely in for now (top 9 seed on bracket matrix), but a Tex A&M W would be preferred result)
Maryland @ Nebraska (both bubble teams, Nebraska closer to being in. Can't image Maryland getting in regardless - both next four our on bracket matric)
Arkansas @ Ole Miss (Arkansas last 9 seed on bracket mastrix)
St. Bonnie @ LaSalle (St. Bonnie next four out)
LSU @ Alabama (Alabama 8 seed; LSU a fringy bubble team. I think we'd prefer an LSU win, but either result would be fine)
Winners: Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, St. Bonnie, Alabama
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South Florida at UCF (UCF very fringe at this point)
Villanova at Providence (11 seed per BracketMatrix)
Clemson at Florida State (9 seed)
Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Duke
Mississippi State (next four out) @ Vandy
Kansas State (11 seed) @ Ok State (OK state also near the bubble, so either result would be OK)
NC State (first four out) @ Syracuse (11 seed) [Not even sure who to pick in this one; either result is probably fine.]
Georgia @ Florida (Georgia a ways from the bubble at this point)
Memphis @ SMU (SMU a ways from the bubble at this point)
Nevada (8 seed) @ Boise State (first four out) (Nevada should probably be in regardless at this point, but a loss for Boise would be crushing...a win would be a big boost)
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South Florida at UCF (UCF very fringe at this point)
Villanova at Providence (11 seed per BracketMatrix)
Clemson at Florida State (9 seed)
Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Duke
Mississippi State (next four out) @ Vandy
Kansas State (11 seed) @ Ok State (OK state also near the bubble, so either result would be OK)
NC State (first four out) @ Syracuse (11 seed) [Not even sure who to pick in this one; either result is probably fine.]
Georgia @ Florida (Georgia a ways from the bubble at this point)
Memphis @ SMU (SMU a ways from the bubble at this point)
Nevada (8 seed) @ Boise State (first four out) (Nevada should probably be in regardless at this point, but a loss for Boise would be crushing...a win would be a big boost)
SMU is done. Crushing loss for them. Mississippi State might be too. Big missed opportunity for Boise St.
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Cincinnati @ Houston (10 seed)
Temple (Next 4 out) @ Wichita State
Ohio State @ Penn State (Fringe Bubble)
Middle Tennessee (bid stealer) @ Southern Miss
Oregon @ USC (First Team Out). Oregon would probably move near the bubble with a win
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley
Western Kentucky (bid stealer) @ North Texas
Oregon State @ UCLA (last 4 in)
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Cincinnati @ Houston (10 seed)
Temple (Next 4 out) @ Wichita State
Ohio State @ Penn State (Fringe Bubble)
Middle Tennessee (bid stealer) @ Southern Miss
Oregon @ USC (First Team Out). Oregon would probably move near the bubble with a win
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley
Western Kentucky (bid stealer) @ North Texas
Oregon State @ UCLA (last 4 in)
I'd add Utah @ Washington (both bubble teams, but Washington is currently in and Utah is not)
Bubble teams just keep losing.
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The computers love Penn State. Amazed to see them as -1 favorites per Vegas and Pomeroy has tOSU as a 1-point favorite. This from a team that beat no one in the non-con and other than the upset at Ohio State, really doesn't have any wins of substance in conference play (Nebraska and Maryland at home, I guess?).
Anyone wondering how we can still be on the bubble should look at Penn State's resume. I realize the Nittany Lions aren't in right now, but their resume is putrid. One Q1 win, two Q3 home losses (Wisconsin and Minnesota), and a terrible RPI (85) and SOS (124).
I don't think they get in, and there's certainly no guarantee we do, but the resumes around the bubble are not good. Also, of our remaining games, we have 2 more Q1 games (both Creighton games), 2 more Q2 games (Georgetown and St. John's), and one Q3 game (DePaul). As much as people want to discount this stretch of our schedule, it's actually tougher than what many of the teams around the bubble will face and provides us with 4 chances for wins that actually improve our resume, no matter what individual Scoopers may think of the bottom of our league.
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I don't think they get in, and there's certainly no guarantee we do, but the resumes around the bubble are not good. Also, of our remaining games, we have 2 more Q1 games (both Creighton games), 2 more Q2 games (Georgetown and St. John's), and one Q3 game (DePaul). As much as people want to discount this stretch of our schedule, it's actually tougher than what many of the teams around the bubble will face and provides us with 4 chances for wins that actually improve our resume, no matter what individual Scoopers may think of the bottom of our league.
Yep. No matter what the naysayers and negative nancies say, this ball game is far from mathematically over.
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Would love Providence beating Butler and SH
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I'd add Utah @ Washington (both bubble teams, but Washington is currently in and Utah is not)
Bubble teams just keep losing.
I think I'd rather have Washington lose this one. Their advanced numbers are terrible (Kenpom 96) and 1 or 2 more losses could be the difference.
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Can we add the FBI investigation to this thread? I'm thinking that's our best hope for an NCAA Tournament bid.
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Cincinnati @ Houston (10 seed)
Temple (Next 4 out) @ Wichita State
Ohio State @ Penn State (Fringe Bubble)
Middle Tennessee (bid stealer) @ Southern Miss
Oregon @ USC (First Team Out). Oregon would probably move near the bubble with a win
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley
Western Kentucky (bid stealer) @ North Texas
Oregon State @ UCLA (last 4 in)
Big win for Houston. Solidifies their spot. Temple blew a 20 point lead to Wichita. Huge loss for them. Penn State probably played their way into the conversation.
Big losses by NMSU and Washington. Important win by USC but that won't do much for them as far as getting off the bubble.
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Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure
Bowling Green @ Buffalo - This may be a bit of a stretch, but potential bid stealer.
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Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure
Bowling Green @ Buffalo - This may be a bit of a stretch, but potential bid stealer.
Big one for St. Bonnie.
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Wisconsin did in fact jump all the way up to RPI 132 (I believe they were in the 170s) with the win yesterday. The W @ the Kohl Center is now a Q2 win, but Wisconsin will need to stay under RPI 136 for that to stay a Q2 win.
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Let's play the blind resume game. I am going to list 13 team's resumes with what the committee has stated will be their most important factors this season: quadrant wins/losses, SOS, and metrics.
Please select which six teams you believe have the best resumes of this group.
Team 1
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 53
SOS: 105
Team 2
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric:51
SOS: 69
Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 55
SOS: 20
Team 4
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 44
SOS: 72
Team 5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 3-0
Q3: 5-4
Q4: 4-0
Avg Metric: 64
SOS: 10
Team 6
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 2-2
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 54
Team 7
Q1: 2-5
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric: 50
SOS: 41
Team 8
Q1: 4-9
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 69
SOS: 68
Team 9
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: 29
Team 10
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 28
Team 11
Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 96
Team 12
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: 108
Team 13
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 63
SOS: 101
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Teams 4, 6, 10, 3, 9 and 5.
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Teams 4, 6, 10, 3, 9 and 5.
I think we are one of these teams, but I could be wrong
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nm
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No other guesses? What I laid out is main criteria the selection committee will be using. It'd be great to get some real feedback on what teams you feel separate themselves from others without the program name attached. Admittedly, a lot of the resumes looks pretty similar, but that's kind of the point. There are little nitpicks here and there, but if what the early top 16 bracket reveal showed anything, its that that quadrants are going to be weighted extremely heavily.
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Tomorrow's bubble slate. I may not leave the house.
SMU @ UCF (both very fringe at this point; UCF further away)
Texas (11 seed) @ Oklahoma
Syracuse (first four out) @ Miami
Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Georgia Tech
Providence (10 seed) @ Butler
Iowa State @ Kansas State (11 seed)
Missouri (8 seed) @ LSU (Either result is probably fine. Mizzou pretty safe at this point, LSU is a ways from the bubble. LSU win helps RPI)
Alabama @ Kentucky (frankly both teams probably safe)
Air Force @ Boise State (first four out)
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (9 seed)
Notre Dame (fringe bubble) @ Boston College
NC State (11 seed) @ Wake Forest
Tennessee @ Georgia (fringe bubble; win wouldn't be bad for MU)
Middle Tennessee (12 seed; potential bid stealer) @ Louisiana Tech
Texas Tech @ Baylor (first four out, very similar resume to MU)
Rutgers @ Maryland (Maryland fringe at best at this point)
Colorado @ Washington (11 seed)
OK State @ TCU (8 seed) (probably want TCU, OK State fringe bubble, TCU probably safe either way)
UT Arlington @ Louisiana (unlikely but potential bid staler)
Western Kentucky (potential bid stealer) @ Rice
North Carolina @ Louisville (10 seed)
Ole Miss @ Miss State (fringe bubble)
Utah (similar boat to MU) @ Washington State
Oregon (fringe bubble) @ UCLA (11 seed)
Oregon State @ USC (11 seed)
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T-rank does all the work for us.
http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Marquette
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T-rank does all the work for us.
http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Marquette
I looked at that earlier and I don't think that is accurate at all. Doesn't make any sense to me. There is no scenario where we want St. Bonaventure to beat Rhode Island tonight.
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No other guesses? What I laid out is main criteria the selection committee will be using. It'd be great to get some real feedback on what teams you feel separate themselves from others without the program name attached. Admittedly, a lot of the resumes looks pretty similar, but that's kind of the point. There are little nitpicks here and there, but if what the early top 16 bracket reveal showed anything, its that that quadrants are going to be weighted extremely heavily.
I would go with 3,4,6, 5, 9, 10
teams 2 and 5 were my last choices the SOS had me lean towards 5
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Teams 4, 6, 10, 3, 9 and 5.
I would put them in this order:
10
4
3
9
11
6
Will the committee value Q1 wins over avoidance of Q3/4 losses? Will those trump RPI discrepancies?
We shall see.
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Let's play the blind resume game. I am going to list 13 team's resumes with what the committee has stated will be their most important factors this season: quadrant wins/losses, SOS, and metrics.
Please select which six teams you believe have the best resumes of this group.
Team 1
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 53
SOS: 105
Team 2
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric:51
SOS: 69
Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 55
SOS: 20
Team 4
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 44
SOS: 72
Team 5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 3-0
Q3: 5-4
Q4: 4-0
Avg Metric: 64
SOS: 10
Team 6
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 2-2
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 54
Team 7
Q1: 2-5
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric: 50
SOS: 41
Team 8
Q1: 4-9
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 69
SOS: 68
Team 9
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: 29
Team 10
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 28
Team 11
Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 96
Team 12
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: 108
Team 13
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 63
SOS: 101
Here’s my take:
Anyone with a bad loss (and definitely with multiple bad losses) is out. That takes out teams 1, 5, and 7.
Anyone with 6+ Q1 and Q2 wins, without bad blemishes, is in. That means teams 3, 4, 6, and 9 are in. (Team 5 is already out because of 4 Q3 losses)
Anyone with a brutally low SOS due to only beating up on Q3 and Q4 schools is out. That eliminates 11, 12, and 13.
The last two spots then come down to teams 2, 8, and 10. Of those three I like 2 the best, since they’ve gone closer to .500 in their Q1 and Q2 games while 8 and 10 have each racked up a big loss total. My guess is that 2 is a higher level mid major while 8 and 10 are middling high majors (like MU, but not MU)
I’m pretty sure we are team 3. Our resume has more top tier wins than a lot of these schools, but also has a lot of top tier losses. Add a couple more Q2 and Q3 wins (and maybe a Q1 against Creighton, and Ill feel ok.
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3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10. All have respectable metrics and I'm looking largely at the ratio of Q1/2 wins to Q3/4 losses.
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T-rank does all the work for us.
http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Marquette
Not really
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Yep. No matter what the naysayers and negative nancies say, this ball game is far from mathematically over.
I think most of the naysayers are saying nay because, unless MU does something they haven’t been able to do all season (string several good games together) they will play themselves out of even remote consideration.
I think everyone realizes that it doesn’t take much these days to sneak into the back end of the NCAA field. It’s depressing that MU isn’t able to clear that low bar.
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I think most of the naysayers are saying nay because, unless MU does something they haven’t been able to do all season (string several food games together) they will play themselves out of even remote consideration.
I think everyone realizes that it doesn’t take much these days to sneak into the back end of the NCAA field. It’s depressing that MU isn’t able to clear that low bar.
I guess we’ll see in the next 3 games.
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I guess we’ll see in the next 3 games.
I would make that the next 4 since the game at Georgetown is just 2 days after the game at DePaul, and consecutive road games and short turnarounds have not been kind to this team.
If MU can win 3 of the next 4, the Creighton game at home will be interesting and I’ll be able to pay more attention to the bubble. Until then the chances look pretty slim.
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On the blind resumes, I’m pretty sure MU is number 3 and their resume does look as good as or better than some and worse than others.
One thing these numbers don’t tell us is who some of those quality wins were against. MU’s 3 Q1 wins are against teams that are barely in the top 30 and may not carry as much weight as teams that have wins, especially road wins, against top 10 type teams. Like MU’s win over Villanova last year gave them a crown jewel that was worth more than a win over Creighton. Similarly, when Selection Sunday comes, MU’s resume will look a lot better if they have 2 wins over Creighton than just 1, even if there’s a loss thrown in.
Another thing you haven’t listed is out of conference strength of schedule. I have followed these things pretty closely for the last few years, and the committee always says that they like to reward teams that “put themselves out there” in noncoference games. MU only fares so so in that category.
Unless MU pulls the road upset tonight, I’ll be skeptical that even winning the next 4 would be good enough. It would depend on things like how many quality wins other bubble teams add and could come down to whether there are any bid stealers or teams that make big runs in their conference tournaments.
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I think most of the naysayers are saying nay because, unless MU does something they haven’t been able to do all season (string several good games together) they will play themselves out of even remote consideration.
I think everyone realizes that it doesn’t take much these days to sneak into the back end of the NCAA field. It’s depressing that MU isn’t able to clear that low bar.
Agree.
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Let's play the blind resume game. I am going to list 13 team's resumes with what the committee has stated will be their most important factors this season: quadrant wins/losses, SOS, and metrics.
Please select which six teams you believe have the best resumes of this group.
Team 1
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 53
SOS: 105
Team 2
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric:51
SOS: 69
Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 55
SOS: 20
Team 4
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 44
SOS: 72
Team 5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 3-0
Q3: 5-4
Q4: 4-0
Avg Metric: 64
SOS: 10
Team 6
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 2-2
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 54
Team 7
Q1: 2-5
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric: 50
SOS: 41
Team 8
Q1: 4-9
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 69
SOS: 68
Team 9
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: 29
Team 10
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 28
Team 11
Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 96
Team 12
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: 108
Team 13
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 63
SOS: 101
Here are the teams:
Team 1 – St Bonnie
Team 2 – UCLA
Team 3 – Marquette
Team 4- K State
5 – Temple
6 – NC state
7 – USC
8 – OK State
9 – Syracuse
10 – Baylor
11 - Nebraska
12 – Boise State
13 – Mississippi State
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Another thing you haven’t listed is out of conference strength of schedule. I have followed these things pretty closely for the last few years, and the committee always says that they like to reward teams that “put themselves out there” in noncoference games. MU only fares so so in that category.
I saw the other day that our non-con SOS was around 165. Has that gone down throughout the year? I seem to remember thinking we actually had a pretty good noncon schedule when we were playing it, but I don't remember what the ranking was.
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I saw the other day that our non-con SOS was around 165. Has that gone down throughout the year? I seem to remember thinking we actually had a pretty good noncon schedule when we were playing it, but I don't remember what the ranking was.
Per Kenpom it’s in the 170s. FWIW there is only 1 major conference team with a noncon sos in the top 50, and 6 in the top 100. Other services have Marquette in the 140s. MUs non con sos is definitely above average for major conference teams and above most teams around the bubble.
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Nice work. The only teams I thought had better numbers than us were 5 & 6, Temple & NC State. Surprised by that (though I'm not one of the negativos here).
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I saw the other day that our non-con SOS was around 165. Has that gone down throughout the year? I seem to remember thinking we actually had a pretty good noncon schedule when we were playing it, but I don't remember what the ranking was.
NCSOS tends to be higher for the mid and low majors because they end up playing all those buy games on the road against better teams whereas high major teams get those same games at home but against lesser teams. In the Pomeroy era, Marquette has only had 4 seasons where their NCSOS was in the top-200. Before this year, the highest ranked NCSOS ever was #187 in 2011-12. This year's #178 is the toughest ranked schedule Marquette has played in the past 17 years.
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Per Kenpom it’s in the 170s. FWIW there is only 1 major conference team with a noncon sos in the top 50, and 6 in the top 100. Other services have Marquette in the 140s. MUs non con sos is definitely above average for major conference teams and above most teams around the bubble.
According to the NCAA team sheets there are many major conference teams with NC SOS in the top 100,including several bubble teams.
They have MU’s at 143.
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According to the NCAA team sheets there are many major conference teams with NC SOS in the top 100,including several bubble teams.
They have MU’s at 143.
Wisconsin is brining down our NC SOS. Scrubs.
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According to the NCAA team sheets there are many major conference teams with NC SOS in the top 100,including several bubble teams.
They have MU’s at 143.
I see that. Thanks for pointing out. I was using Kenpoms #s.
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Tomorrow's bubble slate. I may not leave the house.
SMU @ UCF (both very fringe at this point; UCF further away)
Texas (11 seed) @ Oklahoma
Syracuse (first four out) @ Miami
Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Georgia Tech
Providence (10 seed) @ Butler
Iowa State @ Kansas State (11 seed)
Missouri (8 seed) @ LSU (Either result is probably fine. Mizzou pretty safe at this point, LSU is a ways from the bubble. LSU win helps RPI)
Alabama @ Kentucky (frankly both teams probably safe)
Air Force @ Boise State (first four out)
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (9 seed)
Notre Dame (fringe bubble) @ Boston College
NC State (11 seed) @ Wake Forest
Tennessee @ Georgia (fringe bubble; win wouldn't be bad for MU)
Middle Tennessee (12 seed; potential bid stealer) @ Louisiana Tech
Texas Tech @ Baylor (first four out, very similar resume to MU)
Rutgers @ Maryland (Maryland fringe at best at this point)
Colorado @ Washington (11 seed)
OK State @ TCU (8 seed) (probably want TCU, OK State fringe bubble, TCU probably safe either way)
UT Arlington @ Louisiana (unlikely but potential bid staler)
Western Kentucky (potential bid stealer) @ Rice
North Carolina @ Louisville (10 seed)
Ole Miss @ Miss State (fringe bubble)
Utah (similar boat to MU) @ Washington State
Oregon (fringe bubble) @ UCLA (11 seed)
Oregon State @ USC (11 seed)
UCF beats SMU. Good result, neither are true bubble teams.
Texas wins. Bad.
Virginia tech pounded Georgia Tech. Expected but disappointing.
Cuse beats Miami. Also no bueno.
Butler taking care of PC. Good result.
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UCF beats SMU. Good result, neither are true bubble teams.
Texas up 8 on Oklahoma under 5. Bad.
Virginia tech is pounding Georgia Tech. Expected but disappointing.
Cuse in a rock fight with Miami under 5. Game could go either way.
Butler taking care of PC. Good result.
After today, Oklahoma will have lost 8 of their last 10, with @ Kansas up next. 1) Why are they still ranked. 2) Are they playing themselves onto the bubble.
Their RPI is 34 right now, but will drop a good bit after a home loss to TX. One of the most over-rated teams in the country.
edit: The RPI of 34 was after the Texas loss. Didn't realize that.
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After today, Oklahoma will have lost 8 of their last 10, with @ Kansas up next. 1) Why are they still ranked. 2) Are they playing themselves onto the bubble.
Their RPI is 34 right now, but will drop a good bit after a home loss to TX. One of the most over-rated teams in the country.
Totally agreed. Just part of the B12 and Young love fest. If I’m an 11 or 10 that gets them opposite me in the bracket, I’m pretty pleased.
They do have 6 Q1 wins though, so I don’t think they’ll ever get particularly close to the bubble. I bet 7, maybe 8 seed is lowest if they continue downward trajectory.
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After today, Oklahoma will have lost 8 of their last 10, with @ Kansas up next. 1) Why are they still ranked. 2) Are they playing themselves onto the bubble.
Their RPI is 34 right now, but will drop a good bit after a home loss to TX. One of the most over-rated teams in the country.
1) Overall resume and body of work.
2) Unlikely, but not impossible. 8-10 should get them in, and they have 2 at home against KSU and ISU teams they should really beat.
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1) Overall resume and body of work.
2) Unlikely, but not impossible. 8-10 should get them in, and they have 2 at home against KSU and ISU teams they should really beat.
Agreed. But they should really have beat Texas at home too.
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1) Overall resume and body of work.
2) Unlikely, but not impossible. 8-10 should get them in, and they have 2 at home against KSU and ISU teams they should really beat.
Right now, I agree they are not near the bubble. But they also shouldn't be top 25 after losing 8 of the last 10. If they end up 7-11 should they be in?
They lost to KSU by 18 last time they played, and to ISU by 8. 8-10 would get them in, but they aren't playing like that is likely right now.
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Agreed. But they should really have beat Texas at home too.
Very true. They will be interesting if they go 17-13 (7-11). Hard to keep a team out with 6 Q1 wins and no losses outside Q2, but the overall record would be tough to justify.
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K State wins.
Boise State takes care of business.
LSU takes down Mizzou.
Kentucky beats Alabama.
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Not a great day in terms of results for bubble teams.
But by far the most important result was an MU W!
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Trae Young missed 20 straight 3s over a 3-game stretch before finally hitting one tonight.
Watched a little SportsCenter and they highlighted how teams are defending him now. Making life very difficult. Markus knows how that feels some nights - I just hope he gets back to feel it again!
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We'll likely climb back into the national bubble conversation with tonight's win, but this simple reality remains (adjusted for Creighton win):
4-0: NCAA Lock
3-1: NCAA bid likely
2-2: NIT Lock
1-3: Marquette Madness likely October 5th
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Pomeroy has us going 4-0
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Pomeroy has us going 4-0
Technically he has us going 2-2 but each individual game is over 50%
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We'll likely climb back into the national bubble conversation with tonight's win, but this simple reality remains (adjusted for Creighton win):
4-0: NCAA Lock
3-1: NCAA bid likely
2-2: NIT Lock
1-3: Marquette Madness likely October 5th
I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.
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I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.
Please provide some real tangible numbers to back up this take. Show me a 10-8 team in a top 3 conference with the numbers MU will have that was left out. MU will have 5-7 seed quality quadrant wins and good computer numbers. We’ve got a better chance of getting in at 8-10 than left our at 10-8. I promise you.
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I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.
If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.
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If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.
If we go 4-0 we aren't playing on Wednesday at MSG and won't have to worry about DePaul.
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If we go 4-0 we aren't playing on Wednesday at MSG and won't have to worry about DePaul.
Probably not, but the worst case scenario at MSG is going 1-and-done with a loss to DePaul. Anything else is better than that and thus not as damaging. I'm saying DePaul wouldn't keep us out at 10-8 and no one else would either. 4-0 is a lock.
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If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.
Absolutely correct. ESPN and Nate Silver's blog have pointed out the Strength of Record is the most accurate predictor, and going into the Creighton game we were only 5 spots out.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/3
Also, Lundardi had us 1 spot out three games ago, and since then we've beaten Seton Hall and Creighton on the road while only losing to a St. John's team that beat Nova and Duke in their two previous.
The only word of caution I throw in is that the math - if you take www.kenpom.com percent chance of a win for each game, gives us only an 11% chance of winning all four even though we are favored in each team.
0.7
0.57
0.53
0.54
0.11 (multiply the four chances of wins by each other to get 11%)
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I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.
If we go 4 and 0 we wouldn't play a bottom feeder until the semi finals. Which means we'd have already picked up a good win.
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We'll likely climb back into the national bubble conversation with tonight's win, but this simple reality remains (adjusted for Creighton win):
4-0: NCAA Lock
3-1: NCAA bid likely
2-2: NIT Lock
1-3: Marquette Madness likely October 5th
My thoughts as well. Get to 9-9 in this year's Big East/on this year's bubble, and I think we get in.
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Please provide some real tangible numbers to back up this take. Show me a 10-8 team in a top 3 conference with the numbers MU will have that was left out. MU will have 5-7 seed quality quadrant wins and good computer numbers. We’ve got a better chance of getting in at 8-10 than left our at 10-8. I promise you.
If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.
I know you two, TAMU, etc. are all over the numbers and the bubble, and I appreciate that. I'm not one of the you need 20 wins crowd or anything like that. I haven't analyzed everyone's resume and projections. But to use your example, T-Rank says if we win out but lose to DePaul at MSG, we're the first team out. Whether that's accurate or even possible given BET scenarios, I still think there's a chance for getting left out. Committee is human.
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I know you two, TAMU, etc. are all over the numbers and the bubble, and I appreciate that. I'm not one of the you need 20 wins crowd or anything like that. I haven't analyzed everyone's resume and projections. But to use your example, T-Rank says if we win out but lose to DePaul at MSG, we're the first team out. Whether that's accurate or even possible given BET scenarios, I still think there's a chance for getting left out. Committee is human.
If MU wins out, I don’t think there is any chance we’d be the 7 seed. Which means no bad losses to open BET play. We’d be playing Butler or Creighton, most likely.
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Today
Penn State @ Purdue
Nebraska @ Illinois
Temple vs Houston. Not sure here.
Might have missed some, just did a quick glance.
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Today
Penn State @ Purdue
Nebraska @ Illinois
Temple vs Houston. Not sure here.
Might have missed some, just did a quick glance.
I think we want Houston.
Pitt over Florida State would be nice too, but not gonna happen. Pitt is beyond awful.
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If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.
There's 0 chance a 10-8 team from the big east misses the tourney.
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If MU wins out, I don’t think there is any chance we’d be the 7 seed. Which means no bad losses to open BET play. We’d be playing Butler or Creighton, most likely.
At a glance I think it is conceivable, but extremely unlikely, that MU would have the 7 seed if they finish 10-8. That would give them sweeps over both Creighton and Seton Hall so they would win 2 team tiebreakers with those teams. (I also think it's unlikely that MU will get to 10-8).
Seton Hall would have to win out to finish 11-7 and that would include wins over Butler, Providence, St. John's, and Villanova. That's even less likely than MU going 4-0.
For Creighton to finish 11-7 with a second loss to MU they would have to win their other 3, including a game at Butler and one against Villanova. Again, not likely.
If those teams both finish 11-7, that would put two losses on Butler and send them to 9-9 or worse.
The only scenario I can imagine would be a 3 way tie that includes Butler and a team that has swept Butler, creating a 3 way tie in the tiebreaking "mini conference". I'm not going to rack my brain any further to figure out if that's possible and how the tiebreakers might work from there.
The more possible scenario is that MU could finish 9-9 and still avoid the 7 seed because of a tie with Seton Hall, Creighton, or both.
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At a glance I think it is conceivable, but extremely unlikely, that MU would have the 7 seed if they finish 10-8. That would give them sweeps over both Creighton and Seton Hall so they would win 2 team tiebreakers with those teams. (I also think it's unlikely that MU will get to 10-8).
Seton Hall would have to win out to finish 11-7 and that would include wins over Butler, Providence, St. John's, and Villanova. That's even less likely than MU going 4-0.
For Creighton to finish 11-7 with a second loss to MU they would have to win their other 3, including a game at Butler and one against Villanova. Again, not likely.
If those teams both finish 11-7, that would put two losses on Butler and send them to 9-9 or worse.
The only scenario I can imagine would be a 3 way tie that includes Butler and a team that has swept Butler, creating a 3 way tie in the tiebreaking "mini conference". I'm not going to rack my brain any further to figure out if that's possible and how the tiebreakers might work from there.
The more possible scenario is that MU could finish 9-9 and still avoid the 7 seed because of a tie with Seton Hall, Creighton, or both.
Yep. If Marquette gets to 9-9 it's relatively unlikely we'll be the 7 seed.
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Not at all unhappy to see Nebraska lose to a certifiably awful Illinois team.
Nebraska is only in the NCAA picture because of what has to be the weakest conference schedule of any team in a major conference. Just 1 game each against the conference’s top 6 teams. No Q1 wins.
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Not at all unhappy to see Nebraska lose to a certifiably awful Illinois team.
Nebraska is only in the NCAA picture because of what has to be the weakest conference schedule of any team in a major conference. Just 1 game each against the conference’s top 6 teams. No Q1 wins.
That should do it for Nebraska
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Temple got destroyed at home by Houston. They are likely done too.
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Be nice to see Purdue handle Penn State and put a dent in all the bubble hopefuls dreams today.
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Penn State had a great opportunity playing Purdue without Vincent Edwards. Lost by 3. Good day for MU.
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Wichita State knocked off Cincy at their place. Effect on our numbers is minimal but every little bit helps
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Miami @ ND. Probably cheer for Miami but they get awfully close to the cut line with a loss. Could make an argument we want ND to win
Maryland @ Northwestern. Maryland is fringe bubble at this point. Probably not going to be able to get in, but a loss wouldn't hurt
Oklahoma @ Kansas. Oklahoma still safely in but loss drops them to 6-9 and would be their 6th straight.
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Miami @ ND. Probably cheer for Miami but they get awfully close to the cut line with a loss. Could make an argument we want ND to win
Maryland @ Northwestern. Maryland is fringe bubble at this point. Probably not going to be able to get in, but a loss wouldn't hurt
Oklahoma @ Kansas. Oklahoma still safely in but loss drops them to 6-9 and would be their 6th straight.
oh boy
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nm
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Here are the teams:
Team 1 – St Bonnie
Team 2 – UCLA
Team 3 – Marquette
Team 4- K State
5 – Temple
6 – NC state
7 – USC
8 – OK State
9 – Syracuse
10 – Baylor
11 - Nebraska
12 – Boise State
13 – Mississippi State
Any chance you could randomize the teams and do this again?
I would have though Nebraska's goose pretty well cooked, although some still have them in before us (is a loss @ Illinois Q3, or Q4?), it'd be nice to re-evaluate without the reputation of the team name influencing decisions.
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Any chance you could randomize the teams and do this again?
I would have though Nebraska's goose pretty well cooked, although some still have them in before us (is a loss @ Illinois Q3, or Q4?), it'd be nice to re-evaluate without the reputation of the team name influencing decisions.
@Illinois is a Q3 loss. If it was at home it would be a Q4 loss.
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Any chance you could randomize the teams and do this again?
I would have though Nebraska's goose pretty well cooked, although some still have them in before us (is a loss @ Illinois Q3, or Q4?), it'd be nice to re-evaluate without the reputation of the team name influencing decisions.
Sure I will do it again some day this week. Generally speaking, bubble teams as a whole had an impressive showing this weekend. I highly doubt that continues. I think the analysis would be better to do after early and mid week games.
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ND loses. Maryland wins.
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ND loses. Maryland wins.
ND sucks
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Uhhh....Oklahoma not lookin so hot, aina?
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Uhhh....Oklahoma not lookin so hot, aina?
I'm tired of my ESPN App giving updates on Trae Young. 6 times per game.
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ND loses. Maryland wins.
Nice to know that that ND stank isn't stinking up our SOS.
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February 20, 2018
West Virginia at Baylor
Bears right on the bubble
Kentucky at Arkansas
Both in right now, but Arkansas could fall out if they lose out, which is a realistic proposition
Mississippi State at Texas A&M
MSU is on the fringe of the bubble, a couple losses would kill any hopes.
Indiana at Nebraska
The Huskers took a big hit with the loss to Illinois, losing to IU would seal them on the outside.
Boston College at NC State
The Wolfpack have a bizarre resume with great wins and putrid losses. More putrid losses would dent their case.
Vanderbilt at LSU
LSU is right on the bubble. Better they lose, but a win would help RPI.
The Citadel at East Tennessee State
I don't think ETSU will get in without the autobid, but another loss would guarantee that.
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ESPN's updated bubble watch as of this AM:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022018/perfect-storm-brewing-pac-12 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022018/perfect-storm-brewing-pac-12)
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I think Bleacher Report's summary of Marquette in their bracketology, especially the last paragraph, is pretty much spot on. They have Marquette as a 10 seed.
Moving Up: Marquette Golden Eagles (New to the Field)
15-11, RPI: 57, KP: 48, SOS: 15
Marquette only played one game in the last seven days, but it was a huge one. The Golden Eagles stormed back from a 16-point deficit in the first half for a road win over Creighton.
It was their third road win against a quality Big East foe, adding to a collection that already included Seton Hall and Providence. Factor in the home win over Seton Hall, and the Golden Eagles now have four quadrant 1 wins and no terrible losses.
The 11 losses is a bit many at this point in the season, but that's no reason to exclude Marquette from the field. It's simply a product of a team having already played the toughest portions of its schedule. If the Golden Eagles are able to win their next three games against St. John's, DePaul and Georgetown, they should enter the Big East tournament in good dancing position, regardless of what happens in their season finale at home against Creighton.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760269-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracket-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68 (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760269-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracket-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68)
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One thing to keep in mind, and correct me if I’m wrong, but I think most of the visible bracketologists (like Lunardi) establish their brackets based on projections of how teams will finish and not “if the season ended today”. I know Palm used to base his on current resumes with no projection, but I don’t know if that’s changed.
I think that’s partly why a team like Baylor, which has a resume very similar to MUs, is in Lunardi’s bracket while MU isn’t even in his first 8 out. MU doesn’t have as many opportunities to enhance its resume as Baylor does, and if you project that Baylor and MU both finish 2-2, Baylor would end up clearly ahead.
In other words, MU has to exceed its projected finish to get into the field (by winning at least 3 more) while a team like Baylor might just have to meet theirs.
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One thing to keep in mind, and correct me if I’m wrong, but I think most of the visible bracketologists (like Lunardi) establish their brackets based on projections of how teams will finish and not “if the season ended today”. I know Palm used to base his on current resumes with no projection, but I don’t know if that’s changed.
I think that’s partly why a team like Baylor, which has a resume very similar to MUs, is in Lunardi’s bracket while MU isn’t even in his first 8 out. MU doesn’t have as many opportunities to enhance its resume as Baylor does, and if you project that Baylor and MU both finish 2-2, Baylor would end up clearly ahead.
In other words, MU has to exceed its projected finish to get into the field (by winning at least 3 more) while a team like Baylor might just have to meet theirs.
I don't believe the bolded is correct. Lunardi definitely does it as if the season ended today. 100% certain of that. I believe most bracketologists do it that way, but certainly some lesser known guys may project outwards (but that becomes alot more difficult and time consuming to do so).
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Back in ESPN Bubble Watch:
The Golden Eagles played their way back into this conversation by winning at Creighton. To stick around for a while, they will have to do some grunt work outside of Quadrant 1, with a home game against St. John's and road tests at DePaul and Georgetown.
Give Marquette credit. On paper, this is not a defense that one would expect to accompany a team pushing its way into the bubble conversation. Remarkably, six of the team's past seven opponents have scored 1.15 points per possession or better. Nevertheless, the Golden Eagles are at least raising the bubble question, thanks to some good offense and large helpings of great 3-point shooting.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022018/perfect-storm-brewing-pac-12 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022018/perfect-storm-brewing-pac-12)
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Give Marquette credit. On paper, this is not a defense that one would expect to accompany a team pushing its way into the bubble conversation. Remarkably, six of the team's past seven opponents have scored 1.15 points per possession or better. Nevertheless, the Golden Eagles are at least raising the bubble question, thanks to some good offense and large helpings of great 3-point shooting.
I laughed out loud when I read that sentence. Remarkably? We lost 4 of those 6 games. That's not remarkable, it's downright bad.
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I think MU is effectively in the tournament right now. That is we need to win every regular season game plus at least one BET victory from here on out to get into the tournament. The good news is it is very possible to do that. We need a good loud crowd tomorrow night to give that tournament vibe.
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I think MU is effectively in the tournament right now. That is we need to win every regular season game plus at least one BET victory from here on out to get into the tournament. The good news is it is very possible to do that. We need a good loud crowd tomorrow night to give that tournament vibe.
Is that just your gut feeling, or do you have any tangible information to back up that take? Because there is an overwhelming amount of information contrary to that.
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West Virginia piss pounding Baylor in Waco. Good news.
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I think MU is effectively in the tournament right now. That is we need to win every regular season game plus at least one BET victory from here on out to get into the tournament. The good news is it is very possible to do that. We need a good loud crowd tomorrow night to give that tournament vibe.
This seems quite wrong based on the mountain of other stuff I have read on the subject.
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West Virginia piss pounding Baylor in Waco. Good news.
I won't be comfortable until WVU is up when the clock hits zero. They have shown an uncanny propensity to blow huge leads this year.
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Mississippi State handles A&M on the road. SEC doing all they can to maximize bids
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I won't be comfortable until WVU is up when the clock hits zero. They have shown an uncanny propensity to blow huge leads this year.
Yep. Lead down from 26 to 10. Still a lot of time left too.
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Bottom of the bubble is really strengthening itself. The middle is historically weak though. Really not much difference between teams 29-50.
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NC St and Miss St win. ETSU loses. Baylor is going to lose, back down 20.
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Is that just your gut feeling, or do you have any tangible information to back up that take? Because there is an overwhelming amount of information contrary to that.
I THINK what he is implying is that the rest of the season is the NCAA tournament for MU, win and they are in, essentially that they control their own destiny, to make it or not from here on out.
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I'm tired of my ESPN App giving updates on Trae Young. 6 times per game.
Get the CBS Score App
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Yep. Lead down from 26 to 10. Still a lot of time left too.
West Virginia is a team I'd love to see in the tournament. They are really proficient at giving up big second half leads, and aren't very good at shooting or defending the three (percentage and attempts). Also aren't an overwhelmingly big team.
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Get the CBS Score App
Hey Panther, is CBS paying you?
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I THINK what he is implying is that the rest of the season is the NCAA tournament for MU, win and they are in, essentially that they control their own destiny, to make it or not from here on out.
That’s not really what he said.
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Bottom of the bubble is really strengthening itself. The middle is historically week though. Really not much difference between teams 29-50.
Yah Saturday was pretty wild with most bubble teams winning, but I doubt that continues. Many bubble teams have legit gauntlets left on their schedules.
A&M is going to be interesting as well. 17-11 (6-9) and ravaged with injuries. Still travel to Georgia and play Alabama. I don’t think a 7-11 SEC team is getting in and 8-10 is going to be tight.
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Yah Saturday was pretty wild with most bubble teams winning, but I doubt that continues. Many bubble teams have legit gauntlets left on their schedules.
A&M is going to be interesting as well. 17-11 (6-9) and ravaged with injuries. Still travel to Georgia and play Alabama. I don’t think a 7-11 SEC team is getting in and 8-10 is going to be tight.
Well, they were projected as the top 6 seed before today. So it seems they have some wiggle room.
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I don't think they had a shot at an at-large anyway, but East Tennessee State lost to The Citadel tonight. Absolutely terrible home loss. ETSU was #77 in Pomeroy playing at home against #321 The Citadel. Pomeroy had ETSU as a 23-point favorite and they lost outright 84-82.
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Well, they were projected as the top 6 seed before today. So it seems they have some wiggle room.
Seems crazy to me.
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Seems crazy to me.
The SEC is going to have some scratching their heads this year. A&M and Florida have been safely in around the 6-seed range. Florida has an RPI of 65 right now.
They are being considered safely in, because of the high RPI's of SEC teams, that frankly aren't very good. That gives a bunch of the teams ridiculous looking Q1 wins.
LSU for example is 7-5 against Q1. That is comparable to Xavier (7-4). Florida and A&M have similar large Q1 victories. Since the committee has made it clear that Q1 victories will be a priority, you have some SEC teams that frankly should be on the bubble, or off the bad side of the bubble, that are considered safely in.
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The SEC is going to have some scratching their heads this year. A&M and Florida have been safely in around the 6-seed range. Florida has an RPI of 65 right now.
They are being considered safely in, because of the high RPI's of SEC teams, that frankly aren't very good. That gives a bunch of the teams ridiculous looking Q1 wins.
LSU for example is 7-5 against Q1. That is comparable to Xavier (7-4). Florida and A&M have similar large Q1 victories. Since the committee has made it clear that Q1 victories will be a priority, you have some SEC teams that frankly should be on the bubble, or off the bad side of the bubble, that are considered safely in.
Yep. I guess I’ll believe it when I see it with SEC getting 8+ bids.
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Nebraska and LSU both win games they were supposed to win.
Kentucky beats down Arkansas on the road.
Ole Miss forces OT against Mizzou.
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Yeah. Bubble teams won tonight but no big wins. Just largely won the ones theybwere supposed to. Hope MU follows suit
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I THINK what he is implying is that the rest of the season is the NCAA tournament for MU, win and they are in, essentially that they control their own destiny, to make it or not from here on out.
Yes that is what I am saying. In the tournament you lose and your out. That is what I feel the case is for MU. So effectively MU is in the tournament right now, just keep winning. Don't think it requires winning BET, but definitely at least the first game, which would be another quality win.
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Yes that is what I am saying. In the tournament you lose and your out. That is what I feel the case is for MU. So effectively MU is in the tournament right now, just keep winning. Don't think it requires winning BET, but definitely at least the first game, which would be another quality win.
Care to provide any information to backup that take? If MU rattles off 6 straight wins and loses in BET semis, they’ll be a no worse than a 9 seed. Probably a 7 or 8.
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Mizzou takes a pretty awful home loss to a bad Ole Miss team.
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Yes that is what I am saying. In the tournament you lose and your out. That is what I feel the case is for MU. So effectively MU is in the tournament right now, just keep winning. Don't think it requires winning BET, but definitely at least the first game, which would be another quality win.
Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. I don’t get...hmm.
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Mizzou takes a pretty awful home loss to a bad Ole Miss team.
Yeah. Probably not close to the bubble but that probably drops them into the mess of teams on the 8/9 line. Not a bad result for us
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Care to provide any information to backup that take? If MU rattles off 6 straight wins and loses in BET semis, they’ll be a no worse than a 9 seed. Probably a 7 or 8.
That is exactly what I am saying. Win all the rest regular season. Then Win First Big East and we are definitely in the actual tournament. All the metrics will be met then. So for practical purposes we have to perform like we would in the actual tournament , which is keep winning from here on out. Not sure why you have a difficult time understanding this concept.
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That is exactly what I am saying. Win all the rest regular season. Then Win First Big East and we are definitely in the actual tournament. All the metrics will be met then. So for practical purposes we have to perform like we would in the actual tournament , which is keep winning from here on out. Not sure why you have a difficult time understanding this concept.
Because all the math shows if we finish 3-1 and lose in the first round in the BET (so 3-2) we are likely in, although it would be close.
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That is exactly what I am saying. Win all the rest regular season. Then Win First Big East and we are definitely in the actual tournament. All the metrics will be met then. So for practical purposes we have to perform like we would in the actual tournament , which is keep winning from here on out. Not sure why you have a difficult time understanding this concept.
Ha, I don’t think I am the one having a difficult time understanding things.
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Because all the math shows if we finish 3-1 and lose in the first round in the BET (so 3-2) we are likely in, although it would be close.
There are 8 teams ahead of us according to the Feb 19th Lunardi. We have to leapfrog ahead of all of those. Then factor in the inevitable conference tournament upsets, and that makes the number even higher. So to best insure getting in we need the best resume that is unassailable. Win out regular and get one more quality win in the Big East tournament. Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.
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Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.
I think they look at that under the assumption that a returning player would make your team better based on results. If we win without Markus and were only so-so with him, wouldn't that sooner indicate that a returning Markus would hurt our chances rather than help them?
Had Markus been out from January 12th to February 10th when we lost 6/8, you might be on to something, but I don't think we'll get a boost from losing a player and winning more without them.
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There are 8 teams ahead of us according to the Feb 19th Lunardi. We have to leapfrog ahead of all of those. Then factor in the inevitable conference tournament upsets, and that makes the number even higher. So to best insure getting in we need the best resume that is unassailable. Win out regular and get one more quality win in the Big East tournament. Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.
I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much. The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:
- American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot. Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
- A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play. St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid. This would be one to watch IMO
- CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large. Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
- Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid. But I think they would need to win out to get one. Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
- Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO. Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot. But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
- Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
- WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one. Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.
So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer. I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there. Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.
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I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much. The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:
- American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot. Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
- A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play. St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid. This would be one to watch IMO
- CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large. Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
- Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid. But I think they would need to win out to get one. Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
- Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO. Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot. But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
- Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
- WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one. Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.
So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer. I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there. Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.
What if the Badgers get hot in the Big Ten? They beat Purdue so anything is possible.
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There is always potential for a high major bracketbuster. It doesn't happen often but it can. The only one I can remember recently is Providence 4 or 5 years ago
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There is always potential for a high major bracketbuster. It doesn't happen often but it can. The only one I can remember recently is Providence 4 or 5 years ago
There was Georgia several years ago as well.
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What if the Badgers get hot in the Big Ten? They beat Purdue so anything is possible.
Well yeah, its possible. My post wasn't meant to say anything else wasn't possible.
And sure, Wisconsin could beat Purdue or Ohio State, but I'm not all that particularly worried about Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all getting knocked off in the BIG 10 tourney.
Its possible a bid stealer could come out of there, but I don't think its very likely.
Hell, by your logic above, we should be worried about St. John's winning the BEast tourney and stealing a bid.
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I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much. The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:
- American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot. Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
- A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play. St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid. This would be one to watch IMO
- CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large. Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
- Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid. But I think they would need to win out to get one. Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
- Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO. Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot. But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
- Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
- WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one. Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.
So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer. I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there. Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.
Loyola Chicago is in. They clinched a share of the MVC title and are in basically all brackets averaging a 12 seed right now.
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I won't be comfortable until WVU is up when the clock hits zero. They have shown an uncanny propensity to blow huge leads this year.
That's a style of play problem. They literally have no way to not step on the gas. There offense is entirely predicated on playing against a defense that isn't set and if they take the press off or try and slow the offense they can do almost nothing.
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There are 8 teams ahead of us according to the Feb 19th Lunardi. We have to leapfrog ahead of all of those. Then factor in the inevitable conference tournament upsets, and that makes the number even higher. So to best insure getting in we need the best resume that is unassailable. Win out regular and get one more quality win in the Big East tournament. Also in years past the committee has looked at key injuries etc. We show we can win without Markus and there is some soft value there too.
We don't have to leapfrog those teams, we just need to have slightly better results than us. The majority of our bubblemates have backloaded conference schedules meaning there is going to be carnage amongst the bubble teams. We have probably the easiest remaining schedule of the bubble teams so we should have the path to success. Gotta win the games but 3-1 more than likely gets us in.
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Loyola Chicago is in. They clinched a share of the MVC title and are in basically all brackets averaging a 12 seed right now.
Ummmm they are in basically all brackets right now because they are projected to win the MVC tournament and take their at-large bid. I don't thinkn if they were to lose one more game from here on out if they would take an at-large bid.
Edit: Actually, I don't see how they take an at-large bid at all. Right now, their best win is @Florida (current RPI 65). After that? Home against Southern Illinois (80) and @Illinois State (90).
They also have losses @Milwaukee (244), @Missouri State (117), home to Indiana State (186), and @Bradley (104)
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What if the Badgers get hot in the Big Ten? They beat Purdue so anything is possible.
Mr 9-9-9, we are talk mid-majors, not low majors. 8-)
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I'm not quite certain we need to worry about conference tournament upsets all that much. The way I look at it, below are the other conferences where there is the potential for bid stealers:
- American - I don't think we're in too much worry here as I think I don't imagine Wichita State or Cincinnati not taking this, and Houston could have a shot as well and they are close to solidifying their at-large spot. Temple would be the one to worry about here as they could possibly make a tourney run.
- A10 - Another spot maybe could be stolen here, but Rhode Island has just demolished this conference during regular season play. St. Bonnie's could maybe take themselves from possible bubble status to auto-bid. This would be one to watch IMO
- CUSA - Mid Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both projected as bubble teams right now if they weren't to get an at-large. Perhaps a loss during their conf tournament would take them off it as outside of Old Dominion and Marshall, that conference is littered with bad teams.
- Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago could perhaps receive an at-large bid. But I think they would need to win out to get one. Therefore, a loss in their conf tournament and I don't think they get an ar-large.
- Mountain West - this is the one to watch IMO. Nevada has an at-large and Boise State keeps flirting with a last-4 spot. But there are some teams talented enough that won't receive at-larges that could knock off either Nevada or Boise.
- Summit - South Dakota State - again falls into the category of could receive an at-large if they win out, so a loss in the conf tourney would take that away.
- WCC - don't see how either Gonzaga or St. Mary's don't win this one. Maybe BYU could knock one of them off, but don't see them beating both.
So in summary, A10 and Mountain West are the only conference tournaments I am potentially worried about a bid stealer. I didn't list any Power 6 conferences, but I don't think we could realistically see any there. Perhaps the PAC 12, one of the bubble teams makes a run and removes that bubble status.
This is a good post. Thanks for the work.
Loyola and South Dakota State aren't getting at larges. I'd bet everything I own on that. New Mexico State (WAC) and the Ragin Cajuns (Sun Belt) probably had the next best chance (in terms of true mid to low majors), but they have a COMBINED 2 Q1 and Q2 wins. They aren't getting at larges.
I think Conference USA and the Mountain West are the only true concerns. Plus a major conference or two, but we're looking at worst case scenario 3-4 bid stealers.
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Tonight 2/21
Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia helps our RPI but is squarely on the bubble. Root for whoever you want
Seton Hall @ Providence. We want SHU to stay as two Q1 wins instead of just 1. PC losing gets it closer to the cutline
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is fringe bubble
North Carolina @ Syracuse
Clemson @ Virginia Tech
Michigan @ Penn State
TCU @ Iowa State. TCU is safe for now but a few losses and who knows. We're probably big ISU fans from this point out
Louisville @ Duke
Florida @ Tennesssee Florida is pretty safe for now
Alabama @ Auburn
Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois. I think Loyola is out without the auto bid but one more loss would kill their hopes
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure
Texas @ Kansas State. Not sure what is better for us. Both right on the fringe right now
Boise State @ Colorado State
USC @ Colorado
Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any
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We should see a significant number of losses from bubble teams tonight.
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We should see a significant number of losses from bubble teams tonight.
Let's hope it not us!
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We should see a significant number of losses from bubble teams tonight.
And also a few will probably pick up big home wins. Most worried about Syracuse, Penn State and Virginia Tech
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And also a few will probably pick up big home wins. Most worried about Syracuse, Penn State and Virginia Tech
I don't see Cuse beating UNC or Penn State beating MSU.
VT over Clemson I could see, because I don't think Clemson is anywhere near as good as their record.
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I don't see Cuse beating UNC or Penn State beating MSU.
VT over Clemson I could see, because I don't think Clemson is anywhere near as good as their record.
Penn State plays Michigan and they are favored by 3
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Penn State plays Michigan and they are favored by 3
Ahh, thanks for correction...misread your post. Yah, different story there.
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Are we rooting for K-State or Texas tonight?
https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/966329976839602177
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This is a good post. Thanks for the work.
Loyola and South Dakota State aren't getting at larges. I'd bet everything I own on that. New Mexico State (WAC) and the Ragin Cajuns (Sun Belt) probably had the next best chance (in terms of true mid to low majors), but they have a COMBINED 2 Q1 and Q2 wins. They aren't getting at larges.
I think Conference USA and the Mountain West are the only true concerns. Plus a major conference or two, but we're looking at worst case scenario 3-4 bid stealers.
Yeah, I think Loyola and South Dakota State could have a case (not saying they would make it) for an at-large bid if they were to win out. I don't see how they could get one at all if they lost one game the rest of the way. That, in essence, takes that scenario away since if they were to win out, they would get the auto bid.
I had Louisiana and New Mexico State as possible teams that could as well until the last several weeks. New Mexico State suffered back to back losses to Utah Valley and Seattle. I don't think they'd get one now, and especially not if they were to lose in the WAC tourney.
I thought Louisiana had a slim chance originally due to the sheer number of wins and no completely terrible losses (@Ole Miss, Wyoming neutral court, and @Clemson). But then their loss to Georgia State was the nail in the coffin for me, coupled with no big wins.
CUSA is a concern, but I do think I'm worried more about A10 than CUSA. Mid Tennessee & Western Kentucky aren't quite shoe-ins for at-large bids at the moment though both would be considered bubble teams at the least.
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Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any
St. John's at Marquette
Seriously, thanks for doing this every day. Very useful.
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Ummmm they are in basically all brackets right now because they are projected to win the MVC tournament and take their at-large bid. I don't thinkn if they were to lose one more game from here on out if they would take an at-large bid.
Edit: Actually, I don't see how they take an at-large bid at all. Right now, their best win is @Florida (current RPI 65). After that? Home against Southern Illinois (80) and @Illinois State (90).
They also have losses @Milwaukee (244), @Missouri State (117), home to Indiana State (186), and @Bradley (104)
I was mistaken then, I thought that regular season conference winners got at-large bids but it's only the conference tournament winners.
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I was mistaken then, I thought that regular season conference winners got at-large bids but it's only the conference tournament winners.
Auto bids, not at-large.
Regular season conference winners get auto bids to the NIT if they don't make it to NCAA I believe.
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Auto bids, not at-large.
Regular season conference winners get auto bids to the NIT if they don't make it to NCAA I believe.
Correct.
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Auto bids, not at-large.
Regular season conference winners get auto bids to the NIT if they don't make it to NCAA I believe.
Yes, this is why it is much more difficult to make the NIT now than it was 5+ years ago.
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I don't believe the bolded is correct. Lunardi definitely does it as if the season ended today. 100% certain of that. I believe most bracketologists do it that way, but certainly some lesser known guys may project outwards (but that becomes alot more difficult and time consuming to do so).
If you are 100% sure that Lunardi doesn't do this, I will defer. But, I know that there are at least some "bracketologists" that do their projected brackets this way. For example, the Warren Nolan site has a handy "nitty gritty report" with a table showing the main factors the NCAA considers and links to the NCAA "team sheets". It also has a projected Nitty Gritty Report and projected team sheets and I think he uses those to project a bracket.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/nitty-team-predict
I was under the impression (and I'm not sure where I got that impression) that Lunardi did something similar.
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Tonight 2/21
Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia helps our RPI but is squarely on the bubble. Root for whoever you want
Seton Hall @ Providence. We want SHU to stay as two Q1 wins instead of just 1. PC losing gets it closer to the cutline
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is fringe bubble
North Carolina @ Syracuse
Clemson @ Virginia Tech
Michigan @ Penn State
TCU @ Iowa State. TCU is safe for now but a few losses and who knows. We're probably big ISU fans from this point out
Louisville @ Duke
Florida @ Tennesssee Florida is pretty safe for now
Alabama @ Auburn
Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois. I think Loyola is out without the auto bid but one more loss would kill their hopes
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure
Texas @ Kansas State. Not sure what is better for us. Both right on the fringe right now
Boise State @ Colorado State
USC @ Colorado
Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any
SHU is interesting. We want those wins as Q1, but we'd also like them to finish behind MU in conference, which looks likely if we get to 9-9. Which is more important?
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SHU is interesting. We want those wins as Q1, but we'd also like them to finish behind MU in conference, which looks likely if we get to 9-9. Which is more important?
We want Hall to win this one. They still have @SJU, vs. Nova, vs. Butler. IMO, at best, they're going 2-2 to finish 9-9 (3-1 is certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it). For it to really matter for MU, we'll need to be 9-9 as well. If Hall loses tonight, their road to 9-9 is fairly difficult, and then could lose Q1 status for our home win over them.
But yah, if Hall finishes 10-8 and MU 9-9, its going to be alot tougher for MU to get a bye unless PC loses out or Creighton goes 1-3.
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We want Hall to win this one. They still have @SJU, vs. Nova, vs. Butler. IMO, at best, they're going 2-2 to finish 9-9 (3-1 is certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it). For it to really matter for MU, we'll need to be 9-9 as well. If Hall loses tonight, their road to 9-9 is fairly difficult, and then could lose Q1 status for our home win over them.
But yah, if Hall finishes 10-8 and MU 9-9, its going to be alot tougher for MU to get a bye unless PC loses out or Creighton goes 1-3.
Creighton is 8-7 so they only have to go 1-2 now. Assuming they beat DePaul, they just have to lose to Nova and MU for us to pass them.
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Creighton is 8-7 so they only have to go 1-2 now. Assuming they beat DePaul, they just have to lose to Nova and MU for us to pass them.
Yah, I guess I am assuming a loss to Creighton in the 9-9 scenario. But it definitely could come elsewhere. If MU and Creighton end up tied at 9-9 (and 1-1 H2H), I guess it depends who the 3 seed ends up being for the tie breaker. Unless Hall falls in at 9-9 as well, MU wins that mini-conference, which is another attainable result.
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Yah, I guess I am assuming a loss to Creighton in the 9-9 scenario. But it definitely could come elsewhere. If MU and Creighton end up tied at 9-9 (and 1-1 H2H), I guess it depends who the 3 seed ends up being for the tie breaker. Unless Hall falls in at 9-9 as well, MU wins that mini-conference, which is another attainable result.
Probably the wrong thread for this, but I'll have a lot better feel on our bubble status in about 7 hours. If win win tonight I really think we will be 9-8 at this time next week.
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Probably the wrong thread for this, but I'll have a lot better feel on our bubble status in about 7 hours. If win win tonight I really think we will be 9-8 at this time next week.
Yep. Though @ Gtown definitely worries. Don't get me wrong, tonight does as well, but I actually think we play really well tonight. Just a feeling.
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Good post. And I know I’m going to care about this if we’re 9-9 and lose to DePaul in the BET.
But I realize I root for who I root for over MUs fractional benefit of this game or that. I always root for Buzz to win (haters please pause). I always root against Florida in every sport all the time. Ohio State the same (though not a bubbler). I’m a TAMU fan this year also. MU trumps all but that extends to them succeeding in the significant digits. Finish strong and win a BET game or two...that’s what I say.
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Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.
Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS, less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.
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Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.
Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS, less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.
Tweet him? He's known to respond
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Tweet him? He's known to respond
And if he doesn't respond, we'll get Benny to drop a FOIA request on his a$$.
THE PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW
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Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.
Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS, less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.
If you look at previous brackets, the brackets change, but the last 4 byes, last 4 in, first 4 out, and next 4 out never change. So I don't know if: 1) there is a glitch in the system, or 2) if he updated the bracket but not those 16 teams, or 3) if those are the current 16 teams but you cannot see what those 16 teams were when he released previous brackets.
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Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.
Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS, less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.
Penn State is 19-10, 9-7 and didn’t have a four game losing streak earlier this month. The quick glance optics of that are better than 16-11, 6-8, even though PSU plays in a weaker conference, etc.
But I’m not that worried about what Lunardi says. Look at the aggregate on BracketMatrix instead. 8 brackets have Penn State in and 7 have Marquette. That seems reasonable given our current resumes.
Just root for Penn St to lose tonight, as that takes away a chance for a big win, and pushes them down the Big10 standings.
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Tonight 2/21
Georgia @ South Carolina. Georgia helps our RPI but is squarely on the bubble. Root for whoever you want
Seton Hall @ Providence. We want SHU to stay as two Q1 wins instead of just 1. PC losing gets it closer to the cutline
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is fringe bubble
North Carolina @ Syracuse
Clemson @ Virginia Tech
Michigan @ Penn State
TCU @ Iowa State. TCU is safe for now but a few losses and who knows. We're probably big ISU fans from this point out
Louisville @ Duke
Florida @ Tennesssee Florida is pretty safe for now
Alabama @ Auburn
Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois. I think Loyola is out without the auto bid but one more loss would kill their hopes
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure
Texas @ Kansas State. Not sure what is better for us. Both right on the fringe right now
Boise State @ Colorado State
USC @ Colorado
Pretty crazy slate for a Wednesday night. Sorry if I missed any
Sorry for the big quote, but I wish I could get this data in a more digestible way. When I check scores I have to keep flipping back and forth to these lists to see if I should care. Wouldn’t it be nice if when I checked scores on ESPN or elsewhere I could view a page of “Bubble Teams” scores, like I see Top 25 scores?
Someone with more technological savvy than me should be able to make a page like this...
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The last 8 in and first 8 out have been changing in Lunardi’s brackets, but they didn’t change between his bracket from last Friday and his one on Monday, even though there seemed to be some significant results over the weekend. It just looks like a mistake, or he just tinkered with the trams in the bracket but not the ones on the bubble. He should have a new one out tomorrow or Friday.
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The last 8 in and first 8 out have been changing in Lunardi’s brackets, but they didn’t change between his bracket from last Friday and his one on Monday, even though there seemed to be some significant results over the weekend. It just looks like a mistake, or he just tinkered with the trams in the bracket but not the ones on the bubble. He should have a new one out tomorrow or Friday.
For whatever reason, Lunardi’s last four in, first four out, next four out always remain what his current bracket says even if you look at previous versions. It’s been like that for years. Crazy it’s never been fixed.
Put me in the "I don't understand the bubble this year" column. I know I have been very confident and annoying about the bubble this year. But I'm starting to think that I'm missing something.
Lunardi knows his stuff. Him not putting us in the first 8 out is troubling to me. But I look at who is there and don't understand why we were left out. Look at Penn State. They have a lower RPI, lower SOS, less Q1 wins, less Q2 wins, and more Q3/4 losses. I can't figure out why their resume is better.
It is strange. I don’t really get it. Penn State is just 1 example. MU plays incredibly well resume wise with most of the bubble even though a lot of pundits haven’t given them much love all season.
A couple more wins should do the trick.
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Yep. Though @ Gtown definitely worries. Don't get me wrong, tonight does as well, but I actually think we play really well tonight. Just a feeling.
Keep in mind, we play Gtown on Monday. Road game Saturday in Chicago then a road game in DC. Tough schedule there with 3 games, 2 on the road, over 5 days.
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Good post. And I know I’m going to care about this if we’re 9-9 and lose to DePaul in the BET.
But I realize I root for who I root for over MUs fractional benefit of this game or that. I always root for Buzz to win (haters please pause). I always root against Florida in every sport all the time. Ohio State the same (though not a bubbler). I’m a TAMU fan this year also. MU trumps all but that extends to them succeeding in the significant digits. Finish strong and win a BET game or two...that’s what I say.
I am actually going to Auburn at Florida Saturday, so I will help cheer against the Gators for you, then I'm at Georgetown Monday and in Milwaukee for the Creighton finale, at the whole Big East in the media section, and then fly to Ohio for business Monday-tuesday and if we make first four I will be there and follow the team if we are still playing. Man, I'm glad my birthday always falls in March Madness and my wife gives me this month as my one sports binge as long as Marquette keeps playing and a nice bonus for Auburn to look so good this year too to give me a couple of 2 mile drives to games.
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GTown keepin it close with X....not good. They are gonna be hot by the time we play them.
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GTown keepin it close with X....not good. They are gonna be hot by the time we play them.
Or worn down
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Wow..Providence catches a break. Game suspended with 13 minutes left. Seton Hall ahead by 9 and looking pretty good. Game won't be finished tonight. To be concluded at another date.
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Wow..Providence catches a break. Game suspended with 13 minutes left. Seton Hall ahead by 9 and looking pretty good. Game won't be finished tonight. To be concluded at another date.
Same thing that happened v. Marquette with floor condensation?
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Same thing that happened v. Marquette with floor condensation?
Yes. Apparently unseasonably warm/record temperatures and caused ice below to cause condensation to form on playing surface. And Desi Rodriguez got hurt in 1st half...rolled his ankle really badly and was unable to return. They resumed play, and two more players fell without any contact and they decided to call game.
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PC should have to forfeit if that happens again.
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Georgia lost to SC probably the better result
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VT wins. St Bonaventure escapes.
Penn State and Syracuse lose. Good results so far
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PC should have to forfeit if that happens again.
It was 70 degrees in the northeast after being fairly winter like days before. I don’t know that they can help it.
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It was 70 degrees in the northeast after being fairly winter like days before. I don’t know that they can help it.
Marquette played with ice under the floors for years. We had unseasonably warm days. So do other cities. I don't recall it happening much elsewhere.
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Marquette played with ice under the floors for years. We had unseasonably warm days. So do other cities. I don't recall it happening much elsewhere.
Sorry. My point was more that the arena is setup a certain way and has issues with drastic temp fluctuation. It is not Prov fault. No more than if it happened at the BC for MU. On the comparability of arenas and temp changes I can’t comment.
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Sorry. My point was more that the arena is setup a certain way and has issues with drastic temp fluctuation. It is not Prov fault. No more than if it happened at the BC for MU. On the comparability of arenas and temp changes I can’t comment.
Yeah I'm sure PC does all they can. But it also can't continue to happen
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Alabama and Louisville lost. Boise State won.
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Virginia Tech is the big winner today. Pretty much every other legit bubble team lost or treaded water. OK State perhaps inching nearer to the cutline with a big W.
Looks like Texas is going to lose @K State. Probably the preferable result.
Overall great day for Marquette and it’s chances.
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Keep in mind, we play Gtown on Monday. Road game Saturday in Chicago then a road game in DC. Tough schedule there with 3 games, 2 on the road, over 5 days.
Is DePaul in Chicago really a “road game?”
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Is DePaul in Chicago really a “road game?”
Not to me. Should be a lot of Marquette fans there for a Saturday game, even thought it's an early start.
I do consider it pretty close to a must win.
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USC won which is unfortunate. Not a big win but losing at Colorado would have put a big dent in their chances
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Michigan put a pretty big dent in Penn State last night, denying them a chance for a resume building win.
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Lunardi bracket supposedly updated but all those teams that lost yesterday literally went up or at the very least stayed level
Wtf
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Here is Lunardi's update for this morning:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Still no mention of Marquette. Honestly, I don't really get it. His first four out and next four out are UCLA, Texas, Washington, Penn State, Nebraska, Boise State, Utah and Georgia. I think you could make an argument for UCLA, Texas and Washington being ahead of MU in the pecking order, but after that....I think MU's resume is considerably better than Penn State, Nebraska, Boise, Utah and Georgia (even with the H2H win). I will add the resume info later today when I get some time.
Kind of confused.
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Lunardi bracket supposedly updated but all those teams that lost yesterday literally went up or at the very least stayed level
Wtf
I have no idea what's going on with his bracket. We have significantly better numbers than some teams that he has in his first 4 out/ next 4 out, but still no love. Keep winning and we'll start showing up
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I have no idea what's going on with his bracket. We have significantly better numbers than some teams that he has in his first 4 out/ next 4 out, but still no love. Keep winning and we'll start showing up
Yeah and his bracket isn’t the be all end all but it was still weird to me.
The fact we don’t even show up in the first 8 out and a team like Syracuse advanced a spot for losing.
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I might be wearing my conspiracy tin foil hat but I think Lunardi purposely puts teams who don’t play on ESPN regularly, lower on his brackets. It makes a lot of sense for ESPN to have him do this so more people watch “bubble” teams on ESPN
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I mean seriously though....Lunardi's Feb 5 bracket had MU as the first team out. Since then they've gone 3-1 with two huge road wins over Seton Hall and Creighton, and a split with red hot St. Johns. It makes no sense.
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I might be wearing my conspiracy tin foil hat but I think Lunardi purposely puts teams who don’t play on ESPN regularly, lower on his brackets. It makes a lot of sense for ESPN to have him do this so more people watch “bubble” teams on ESPN
I will 100% wear that tin foil hat with you, it's classic E$PN. If I had the time to document it you will see a significant difference between the final Lunardi bracket and a bracket two weeks before, one of the drivers of that is because the final bracket is what is used to determine "how accurate are you" so he's not going to biff that one. I think they play in the margins with the bubble teams based on best viewership pushing.
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To not be in the final 8 to get a bid is painful as a fan, and certainly raises a red flag as to the objectivity of the report.
Of course, to quote Wojo "Win Every Day" applies to Sat in Chicago...then DC...and then home with Creighton. A trip up likely gets us ND in the NIT.
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Michigan put a pretty big dent in Penn State last night, denying them a chance for a resume building win.
Penn State, despite their loss to Michigan last night, is 27 in Pomeroy. They have 2 wins over Pomeroy #14 Ohio State. They likely finish 20-11, and 10-8 in Big 10. Probably want them to beat Nebraska to fully knock Nebraska off bubble. Think we have to concede Penn State being in NCAA.
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Here is Lunardi's update for this morning:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Still no mention of Marquette. Honestly, I don't really get it. His first four out and next four out are UCLA, Texas, Washington, Penn State, Nebraska, Boise State, Utah and Georgia. I think you could make an argument for UCLA, Texas and Washington being ahead of MU in the pecking order, but after that....I think MU's resume is considerably better than Penn State, Nebraska, Boise, Utah and Georgia (even with the H2H win). I will add the resume info later today when I get some time.
Kind of confused.
Just win and MU will not have to worry. But I believe the Creighton game at home is an important win. You beat Hall and Creighton both times, can not see MU behind either team then. Can not slip up at Depaul, Gtown can go either way, but Creighton is a must victory. Go 9-9 and maybe win a game in the tournament,
MU will be fine. Just do not want to play Villy the first game, so can not be in the 7-8 game to start with them. They are really good. They have a great chance to
win it all. Brunson, Bridges and DeVincinco (sp) are really good.
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I will 100% wear that tin foil hat with you, it's classic E$PN. If I had the time to document it you will see a significant difference between the final Lunardi bracket and a bracket two weeks before, one of the drivers of that is because the final bracket is what is used to determine "how accurate are you" so he's not going to biff that one. I think they play in the margins with the bubble teams based on best viewership pushing.
+1, as long as he can keep his whatever% this will continue. A lot of people look at his and others overall percentage, but forget that usually <80% of the field is already guaranteed by now, and his what teams get in % is high, but his seed prediction accuracy is much lower.
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Palm, who has been down on MU, even seems to be higher on us than Lunardi. In this bubble watch last night he said we needed to go 2-2 down the stretch to get consideration but realistically needed to do more than that.
There is a HUGE difference between 9-9 and 10-8 though according to T Rank. 9-9 would have us as the first team out of the tournament. 10-8? Jumps us over EIGHT teams and we enter as the 2nd best 10 seed.
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Penn State, despite their loss to Michigan last night, is 27 in Pomeroy. They have 2 wins over Pomeroy #14 Ohio State. They likely finish 20-11, and 10-8 in Big 10. Probably want them to beat Nebraska to fully knock Nebraska off bubble. Think we have to concede Penn State being in NCAA.
You're way off on this, have you been paying attention at all to the bubble?
Edit: Also, we definitely want Nebraska to win too, which they'll likely be a slight favorite to do.
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Here is Lunardi's update for this morning:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Still no mention of Marquette. Honestly, I don't really get it. His first four out and next four out are UCLA, Texas, Washington, Penn State, Nebraska, Boise State, Utah and Georgia. I think you could make an argument for UCLA, Texas and Washington being ahead of MU in the pecking order, but after that....I think MU's resume is considerably better than Penn State, Nebraska, Boise, Utah and Georgia (even with the H2H win). I will add the resume info later today when I get some time.
Kind of confused.
Lunardi's First Four Out:
UCLA (19-8 (10-5))
Average Metric (RPI/KPI/SOR/BPI/Kenpom/Sagrin): 50
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Best 3 wins: Kentucky (N), Arizona (A), USC (H)
Worst 3 losses: Oregon State (a), Colorado (H), Stanford (A)
Texas (16-12 (6-9))
Average Metric: 39
Q1: 5-9
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 5-0
Best 3 wins: Texas Tech (H), TCU (H), Alabama (A)
Worst 3 losses: OK State (A), Baylor (H), K State (H)
Washington (18-9 (8-6))
Average Metric: 76
Q1: 4-4
Q2: 1-3
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 6-0
Best 3 wins: Kansas (A), Arizona (H), Arizona State (H)
Worst 3 losses: Oregon State (A), Stanford (H), Oregon (A)
Penn State (19-11 (9-8))
Average Metric: 48
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 10-0
Best 3 wins: Ohio State (A), Ohitio State (H), Nebraska (H)
Worst 3 losses: Minnesota (H), Wisconsin (H), Northwestern (A). Also lost to Rider at home, which per RPI is their 5th worst loss.
Nebraska (21-9 (12-5))
Average Metric: 55
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 11-0
Best 3 wins: Michigan (H), Maryland (H), Northwestern (A)
Worst 3 losses: Illinois (A), Penn State (A), UCF (N)
Boise State (21-6 (12-4))
Average Metric: 56
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-2
Q4: 11-0
Best 3 wins: Loyola-Chicago (H), Illinois State (N), Fresno State (A)
Worst 3 losses: Utah State (A), Iowa State (N), Wyoming (A)
Utah (17-9 (9-6))
Average Metric: 57
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Best 3 wins: Arizona State (A), Washington (A), Missouri (H)
Worst 3 losses: UNLV (N), Colorado (A), BYU (A)
Georgia (15-12 (6-9))
Average Metric: 65
Q1: 6-7
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 4-2
Q4: 3-0
Best 3 wins: Tennessee (H), Alabama (H), Marquette (A)
Worst 3 losses: UMASS (A), San Diego St. (N), Vanderbilt (A)
And here is Marquette:
Marquette (16-11 (7-8))
Average Metric: 51
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Best 3 wins: Seton Hall (A), Seton Hall (H), Providence (A), Creighton (A)
Worst 3 losses: Georgia (H), Providence (H), Butler (H)
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Our resume is eerily similar to Texas. RPI, Q1 and Q2 records, road records, quality wins etc. Not saying one is better than the other but if Texas is in next four out group, so should we.
Our resume is light years better than Penn State and Georgia as well.
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You're way off on this, have you been paying attention at all to the bubble?
Edit: Also, we definitely want Nebraska to win too, which they'll likely be a slight favorite to do.
+1. Has a team ever gotten in with an RPI of 85? because if they have our RPI of 57 should be a lock right now.
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http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/ (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/)
This seems overly harsh
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http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/ (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/)
This seems overly harsh
Yeah. Dauster doesn't specialize in brackets, so his opinion here isn't too worrisome. Especially when NBC's bracket guy has us in the first four out, prior to last night. And he's really good. I think he's the founder of Bracketville which is historically the most accurate projection.
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http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/ (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/)
This seems overly harsh
He said they need to win 4 or 5 in a row. They've already won 2. So he is saying they need to go 2-1 to finish BE play to have a chance - I think we all agree that 8-10 isn't getting it done.
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http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/ (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/02/21/bubble-banter-it-is-a-massive-night-for-teams-on-the-bubble/)
This seems overly harsh
He was also generally pretty negative about every team other than Va Tech (who I agree is now probably off the bubble). A good handful of those teams he listed are going to get in, but he was fairly doom and gloom on all them.
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You're way off on this, have you been paying attention at all to the bubble?
Edit: Also, we definitely want Nebraska to win too, which they'll likely be a slight favorite to do.
Guess we'll see. Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely. I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric. So, definite bias. Suspect Penn State will be in.
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Guess we'll see. Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely. I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric. So, definite bias. Suspect Penn State will be in.
As you should. But the committee doesn't necessarily do the same.
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Guess we'll see. Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely. I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric. So, definite bias. Suspect Penn State will be in.
Don't get me wrong, PSU can still get in. But to concede them as a lock right now is absurd, considering no bracket experts have them in right now. While you might value Pomeroy, it is somewhat irrelevant to predicting the field/seeds.
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Barring a crazy comeback, SHU beats PC on the road. Definitely the better result for us. Solidifies the two Q1 wins we have and drops PC back towards the cutline.
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Barring a crazy comeback, SHU beats PC on the road. Definitely the better result for us. Solidifies the two Q1 wins we have and drops PC back towards the cutline.
I think PC is pretty safe. Wins over Nova and X will get them in with room to spare at 9-9. That would require PC to go 1-2 against @Gtown, @X, vs. SJU, which won't necessarily be easy. I think they would have a chance at Dayton at 8-10, but would depend on how things shake out around the bubble. Its inevitable that a handful of sub .500 B12, SEC, BE and/or ACC teams are going to get in.
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Guess we'll see. Admittedly I have not been following the bubble that closely. I do value Pomeroy rankings ahead of every other metric. So, definite bias. Suspect Penn State will be in.
If Penn State is in, then we are a stone cold lock, even if we lose 2 or 3 more. The committee has made it clear that they value SOS and Q1 wins as very important. Penn State's SOS is not strong. They only have 2 Q1 wins. They have 2 bad losses (Q3), and their RPI is in the 80's with little chance of improving dramatically.
They would need a win @ Nebraska, and a very deep B10 tourney run to have a chance.
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Bracket Matrix had both MU and PSU as "Next Four Out" as of yesterday.
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I think PC is pretty safe. Wins over Nova and X will get them in with room to spare at 9-9. That would require PC to go 1-2 against @Gtown, @X, vs. SJU, which won't necessarily be easy. I think they would have a chance at Dayton at 8-10, but would depend on how things shake out around the bubble. Its inevitable that a handful of sub .500 B12, SEC, BE and/or ACC teams are going to get in.
They also have losses to Minnesota, UMass, and DePaul. 1-2 in their last 3 would be serious danger for them.
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They also have losses to Minnesota, UMass, and DePaul. 1-2 in their last 3 would be serious danger for them.
Agreed...I just said that. A chance for Dayton but needing help to get there would certainly be "danger" IMO.
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Agreed...I just said that. A chance for Dayton but needing help to get there would certainly be "danger" IMO.
Well 1-2 puts them at 9-9, I don't think they're safe there. If they lose all 3 and go 8-10 I think they're out for sure.
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Well 1-2 puts them at 9-9, I don't think they're safe there. If they lose all 3 and go 8-10 I think they're out for sure.
Ahh...yes, you're correct. Just a brainfart. I think they're in at 9-9 with X and Nova wins, but yah, the bad losses don't help.
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I mean seriously though....Lunardi's Feb 5 bracket had MU as the first team out. Since then they've gone 3-1 with two huge road wins over Seton Hall and Creighton, and a split with red hot St. Johns. It makes no sense.
I'll tweet at him and ask him what's up...
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We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.
So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:
Providence still has to play @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch. PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.
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We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.
So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:
Providence still has to play @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch. PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.
Thanks for doing this. One quick correction, USC beat Colorado last night.
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He said they need to win 4 or 5 in a row. They've already won 2. So he is saying they need to go 2-1 to finish BE play to have a chance - I think we all agree that 8-10 isn't getting it done.
I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.
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I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.
Agreed.
I'll tweet at him and ask him what's up...
Cool, please share if he responds.
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I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.
What does he even mean lol
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On February 5th, Joey Brackets had us as first team out and Georgia nowhere to be seen.
Since then this is what the teams have done:
Marquette:
3-1
Wins: @Seton Hall (RPI 27), @Creighton (39), St. John's (75)
Losses: St. John's (75)
Georgia:
2-3
Wins: @Florida (64), Tennessee (11)
Losses: @Vanderbilt (111), Auburn (7), @South Carolina (73)
I would argue that a road win at 27 RPI Seton Hall is comparable to a home win against 11 RPI Tennessee. A road win against Creighton is significantly better than a road win against Florida. A road loss to Saint John's is basically the same as a road loss to South Carolina. And a win over St. John's is much much better than a home loss to Auburn and a road loss to Vandy.
Yet since then, Marquette has fallen out of "First 8 Out" and Georgia has risen into it.
?-(
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how does Joey construct his bracket?
A - He tries to forecast how teams will finish the season and put together a bracket that most closely resembles how he thinks the committee will select teams
Or
B - Its real time. If the season ends today, this is who he thinks would be in and out?
I wonder if part of not mentioning Marquette is that be thinks we will slip up over the next 3 games.
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how does Joey construct his bracket?
A - He tries to forecast how teams will finish the season and put together a bracket that most closely resembles how he thinks the committee will select teams
Or
B - Its real time. If the season ends today, this is who he thinks would be in and out?
I wonder if part of not mentioning Marquette is that be thinks we will slip up over the next 3 games.
B
On February 5th, Joey Brackets had us as first team out and Georgia nowhere to be seen.
Since then this is what the teams have done:
Marquette:
3-1
Wins: @Seton Hall (RPI 27), @Creighton (39), St. John's (75)
Losses: St. John's (75)
Georgia:
2-3
Wins: @Florida (64), Tennessee (11)
Losses: @Vanderbilt (111), Auburn (7), @South Carolina (73)
I would argue that a road win at 27 RPI Seton Hall is comparable to a home win against 11 RPI Tennessee. A road win against Creighton is significantly better than a road win against Florida. A road loss to Saint John's is basically the same as a road loss to South Carolina. And a win over St. John's is much much better than a home loss to Auburn and a road loss to Vandy.
Yet since then, Marquette has fallen out of "First 8 Out" and Georgia has risen into it.
?-(
Georgia is one head scratcher, but when you look at the resumes of each of the 8 teams on his first four and next four out list, there are only a couple that are comparable or better than MUs. Its strange.
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55457.msg993787#msg993787 (https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55457.msg993787#msg993787)
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Joe is definitely having some ESPN bias in his bracket. I also think that he takes his previous bracket and just slides team up or down a couple spots based on their W/L for that week (It seems like there is somewhat of a delay because we only dropped slightly during our 4 game losing streak, and we've only risen slight during the 3-1 stretch that followed) . If he were to make a new bracket from scratch and look at the advanced numbers for all the bubble teams, we would be a lot closer than he has us.
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This guy has been consistently better then Lunardi......not updated since the 19th....MU in first 4 out at that time.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
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Joe is definitely having some ESPN bias in his bracket. I also think that he takes his previous bracket and just slides team up or down a couple spots based on their W/L for that week (It seems like there is somewhat of a delay because we only dropped slightly during our 4 game losing streak, and we've only risen slight during the 3-1 stretch that followed) . If he were to make a new bracket from scratch and look at the advanced numbers for all the bubble teams, we would be a lot closer than he has us.
Oh, you mean his full-time job?
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Oh, you mean his full-time job?
Only explanation I can come up with. There are multiple teams ahead of us in his eyes that have worse RPI, SOS, fewer Q1/Q2 wins and more Q3/Q4 loses. What else could it be?
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Barring a crazy comeback, SHU beats PC on the road. Definitely the better result for us. Solidifies the two Q1 wins we have and drops PC back towards the cutline.
Providence is in serious danger territory. Next three are @Gtown, @Xavier, and home to SJU. They could realistically lose all three to close out the year and miss NCAA.
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Only explanation I can come up with. There are multiple teams ahead of us in his eyes that have worse RPI, SOS, fewer Q1/Q2 wins and more Q3/Q4 loses. What else could it be?
Completely agree. He is either shirking, big time, or does not give a damn about the overt ESPN bias in which case he endangers his reputation, which is everything in his line of work.
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Completely agree. He is either shirking, big time, or does not give a damn about the overt ESPN bias in which case he endangers his reputation, which is everything in his line of work.
He's at little risk of endangering his reputation.....at this point of the season there aren't that many fanbases that are paying that close attention outside of the E$PN contracted teams.
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Completely agree. He is either shirking, big time, or does not give a damn about the overt ESPN bias in which case he endangers his reputation, which is everything in his line of work.
I mean he's got Boise and Utah in there, and they're not ESPN teams. USC and St. Bonnie last 4 in.
Utah probably deserves in the be in the first 8 out somewhere, USC is questionable as whether they belong in the field right now. St. Bonnie probably deserves to be in for now as well until they pick up another bad loss, which is conveivable with their remaining schedule of @VCU, vs. Davidson, @SLU.
I am not sure what is causing him to downgrade MU, but when you spread the resumes, there is basically nothing I can find that would indicate MU shouldn't be somewhere between a 10 seed and the first few teams out at the moment.
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We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.
So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:
Providence still has to play @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch. PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.
If LSU finishes blistering hot -- like win out and pick up at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney hot -- there's a chance they sneak into the RPI top 50 and our Maui win slides up to Quadrant 1.
If Georgia backslides too much, they could fall out of the RPI top 75 and we would have a Quadrant 3 loss.
Geaux Tigers! Don't suck too much, Dawgs!
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If LSU finishes blistering hot -- like win out and pick up at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney hot -- there's a chance they sneak into the RPI top 50 and our Maui win slides up to Quadrant 1.
If Georgia backslides too much, they could fall out of the RPI top 75 and we would have a Quadrant 3 loss.
Geaux Tigers! Don't suck too much, Dawgs!
SJU is also right on the cutoff of Q1 road loss and Q2 home win. They're at 75 in RPI and thats the last spot. We need them to win a couple games here.
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I asked him on Twitter and he said 4 more wins in a row, or 5 if we win out and get the 7 seed which I don't even know if that's possible. I think he's way off on this one.
This is what my line of thinking is. Gives MU good resume and the one more quality win gets a good seeding to boot. I think it is possible.
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SJU is also right on the cutoff of Q1 road loss and Q2 home win. They're at 75 in RPI and thats the last spot. We need them to win a couple games here.
No worries. The Johnnies have to win out to fulfill my 5-way tie fantasy anyway.
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If LSU finishes blistering hot -- like win out and pick up at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney hot -- there's a chance they sneak into the RPI top 50 and our Maui win slides up to Quadrant 1.
If Georgia backslides too much, they could fall out of the RPI top 75 and we would have a Quadrant 3 loss.
Geaux Tigers! Don't suck too much, Dawgs!
LSU and Georgia don't play each other do they?
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how does Joey construct his bracket?
A - He tries to forecast how teams will finish the season and put together a bracket that most closely resembles how he thinks the committee will select teams
Or
B - Its real time. If the season ends today, this is who he thinks would be in and out?
I wonder if part of not mentioning Marquette is that be thinks we will slip up over the next 3 games.
It may have to do with the Howard injury, which makes MU hard to predict.
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LSU and Georgia don't play each other do they?
Saturday in Columbia.
Honestly, the SEC might make for the best conference viewing in the next 10 days. 3rd thru 12th separated by two games.
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Saturday in Columbia.
Honestly, the SEC might make for the best conference viewing in the next 10 days. 3rd thru 12th separated by two games.
So is that a no-win or no-lose situation for us?
(https://media.giphy.com/media/5wWf7Hi5aXu3JiXXwli/200.gif)
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Tonight:
Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath
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Tonight:
Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath
Gotta be Utah, UCLA is projected in at the moment, Utah is projected behind us.
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Tonight:
Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath
Oregon ain’t getting in.
ASU is lucky they started so hot
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Oregon ain’t getting in.
ASU is lucky they started so hot
Yah, I'd root for Oregon in that one.
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Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.
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Yah, I'd root for Oregon in that one.
Eh. ASU is a 6 seed and has won 3 of 4 since their skid. They are basically locked in. That game is probably irrelevant to our bubble hopes.
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Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.
I don't know much about the MWC this year, but I'm not at all concerned about Oregon or Northwestern winning their conference tournament.
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I don't know much about the MWC this year, but I'm not at all concerned about Oregon or Northwestern winning their conference tournament.
Bigger point being is that it happens every year, teams from out of nowhere are going to steal bids. The only game that should matter to MU fans at this point is @ DPU on Saturday. Once conference tourney week(s) start, everything can change out of nowhere.
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Tonight:
Washington @ Stanford
UCLA @ Utah. Not sure here.
Arizona State @ Oregon. One more loss would definitely eliminate Oregon
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky. don't hold your breath
Utah per T-rank site recommendations. We are pretty decent Utah fans for now.
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Eh. ASU is a 6 seed and has won 3 of 4 since their skid. They are basically locked in. That game is probably irrelevant to our bubble hopes.
Most likely yes. But ASU is 7-7 in a meh league. I have a real hard time seeing an 8-10 P12 team get an invite.
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He's at little risk of endangering his reputation.....at this point of the season there aren't that many fanbases that are paying that close attention outside of the E$PN contracted teams.
Plus, the man makes brackets for a living, so let's pump the brakes on how much reputation he has.
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Saturday in Columbia.
Honestly, the SEC might make for the best conference viewing in the next 10 days. 3rd thru 12th separated by two games.
In South Carolina???
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In South Carolina???
Sorry, Athens.
Eleven months after the fact and my brain's still fixated on our "neutral site" screw job.
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Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.
The nightly matchups have far more impact on selection than the conference tournaments do. Many of the teams, like the ones you list, only get in by winning the conference tournament. Will there be some bid thieves? Probably. But in general, conference tournament games are far less impactful on the resume than the regular season games are, so unless you win your tournament, those games really don't mean much at all. In terms of selection, the games between now and the kickoff of conference tourney play are far, far more important than any games after barring a tourney final.
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The nightly matchups have far more impact on selection than the conference tournaments do. Many of the teams, like the ones you list, only get in by winning the conference tournament. Will there be some bid thieves? Probably. But in general, conference tournament games are far less impactful on the resume than the regular season games are, so unless you win your tournament, those games really don't mean much at all. In terms of selection, the games between now and the kickoff of conference tourney play are far, far more important than any games after barring a tourney final.
I'm talking totality. If there's 34 at large bids (or whatever the number is), two surprise tournament winners shrinks the bubble far more than Utah/UCLA does tonight. MU has to worry about MU, but I'd be way more worried about a bid stealer who otherwise isn't going than Utah/UCLA this evening.
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Not bubble, but Wisconsin held on to beat Northwestern. They move up to 122 RPI, 13 spots better than the Q2 cutoff. A loss to MSU at home would only drop them a few spots, so they are likely guaranteed to be a Q2 win barring a terrible loss in the Big Ten Tournament
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Not bubble, but Wisconsin held on to beat Northwestern. They move up to 122 RPI, 13 spots better than the Q2 cutoff. A loss to MSU at home would only drop them a few spots, so they are likely guaranteed to be a Q2 win barring a terrible loss in the Big Ten Tournament
Yikes that’s a bad RPI
Good that they can at least be a Q2 for us tho
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Yikes that’s a bad RPI
Good that they can at least be a Q2 for us tho
Tonight's game was a win/win in my mind. If Wisconsin loses, hooray! They lose. If they win, better for MU's RPI. Admittedly I'd prefer them to win at this point though.
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Washington and UCLA lost
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We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.
So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:
Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch. PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.
I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win
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I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win
Thank you.
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I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win
Love it. Thanks for the help
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Bracket matrix has us as the 4th team out now. Washington, 2nd team out, lost tonight to Stanford and with a Kenpom rating at 98 they are pretty much done. Realistically, 3rd team out heading into tomorrow.
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ASU lost. Pretty much a perfect night for MU
No bubble games tomorrow. Everyone enjoy the night off!
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I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win
This is good SaveOD. Just to clarify the rules for us slow guys. The bolded team is the bubble team. When the bubble team loses (a good thing) the opponent is listed in red.
I need this done by a George Bush impersonator. Red good. Green baaaaaad.
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This is good SaveOD. Just to clarify the rules for us slow guys. The bolded team is the bubble team. When the bubble team loses (a good thing) the opponent is listed in red.
I need this done by a George Bush impersonator. Red good. Green baaaaaad.
Yep. I also bolded when bubble teams play each other. If a team suffers enough losses or gets enough wins that they seem to be pretty much off the bubble one way or the other, I'll start to trim the list.
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This is good SaveOD. Just to clarify the rules for us slow guys. The bolded team is the bubble team. When the bubble team loses (a good thing) the opponent is listed in red.
I need this done by a George Bush impersonator. Red good. Green baaaaaad.
and Dana Carvey as GHWB making bomb sounds when someone's bubble bursts.
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OK, more red good, more green bad. Got it!
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OK, more red good, more green bad. Got it!
Especially red at the top. Green at the bottom isn't so bad as long as we keep winning.
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The Bubble watch at the Athletic has us as barely in the conversation for now.
ESPN:
Marquette is still lurking on the fringes of this discussion. Everything would have to fall just right to get an at-large bid, but it's at least conceivable.
The Golden Eagles need to win on the road against DePaul and Georgetown, setting up a regular-season finale at home against Creighton (and a potential season sweep of the Bluejays). Win those three games, and a Golden Eagles team with a 10-8 Big East record will take their chances to improve their résumé in the Big East tournament.
Someone needs to tell them that a 10-8 record would put us higher in the standings than most of their "should be in."
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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The Bubble watch at the Athletic has us as barely in the conversation for now.
ESPN:
Someone needs to tell them that a 10-8 record would put us higher in the standings than most of their "should be in."
Also don't know how PC lost two games since the last update but moved from "work to do" to "should be in"
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The Bubble watch at the Athletic has us as barely in the conversation for now.
ESPN:
Someone needs to tell them that a 10-8 record would put us higher in the standings than most of their "should be in."
Ha, season sweeps of Seton Hall and Creighton with a handful of quality wins, a 10-8 record in arguably the best conference in the country, an enviable strength of schedule, and no bad losses...but, see if you can't get one or two more in the BE tourney.
Good grief. If any of these guys would sit down for 10 minutes and look a little deeper, we could do away with this nonsense.
EDIT: Thankfully, the committee SHOULD do just that.
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This weeks bubble watch is ridiculous what they said about us
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This weeks bubble watch is ridiculous what they said about us
It's all bulletin board material right now.
Wojo: 'Nobody thinks you're any good! What the hell are you going to do about it? DePaul's next men.'
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In here.
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/02/23/bracketology-updated-projected-field-shifts-middle/
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In here.
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/02/23/bracketology-updated-projected-field-shifts-middle/
Wow give me that draw
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In here.
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/02/23/bracketology-updated-projected-field-shifts-middle/
Nevada, Texas Tech, Auburn, Virginia....boy do I not hate that road
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Now I know why they are called Brackets. They are all Bent.
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Nevada, Texas Tech, Auburn, Virginia....boy do I not hate that road
Umm, how 'bout we focus on DePaul? :-\
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Umm, how 'bout we focus on DePaul? :-\
Very good idea. I just needed a pick-me-up after reading ESPN's bubble watch article
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https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/
Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone
If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.
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https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/
Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone
Some good info in here. Lunardi basically says they should have a very good chance of getting in at 9-9 and will be in at 10-8. Still strange he hasn’t moved then into his first 8 out, but he did say they’re the first team after the first 8 out. So MU is certainly on his radar.
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Ya the Athletic and ESPN bubble watch commentaries are crazy. Just keep winning I suppose.
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https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/
Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone
If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.
Seems to be what he said. And I'm glad Wire reached out.
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https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/
Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone
If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.
I wish he'd have explained why certain teams are ahead of us.
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Does this work by the Marquette Wire qualify them for the American Heroes thread?
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https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/
Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone
If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.
Great stuff thanks. Just need to find a way to 2-1 in the next three. Go 3-0 and we are in baby.
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https://marquettewire.org/3987700/sports/qa-espn-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-discusses-marquettes-postseason-prospects/
Marquette Wire got Joey Brackets on the phone
If I'm reading this correctly, he says were the top team not in the first 8 out. He also says that winning out should make us a virtual lock and 2-1 will put us "right there" if we don't lose to one of the bottom teams in MSG.
Yeah his current bracket doesn’t make a lot of sense but it’s nice to see that he seems to agree with all of us about what we need when it’s all said and done
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This may have been posted earlier in the thread, I haven't read through all pages. But I pulled together the remaining Big East schedule as well as the win percentages and projected conference records from T-Rank. The green means the team is heavily favored (>=60% chance of winning). Yellow is a toss up, which I arbitrarily defined as being from 40-60% chance of winning. And red is obviously <=40% chance of winning. (All of this is straight from T-rank).
(https://i.imgur.com/qo3OYPc.png)
Some of my thoughts:
- Butler: I think Butler is going to be 11-7, I think they're going to win both remaining games
- Seton Hall has a very difficult remaining schedule. Very possible they lose their next three or go 1-2. They were 0-4 before beating DePaul and Providence. I think 9-9 sounds about right for them.
- Creighton: I really think we win our last game against them. Assuming they lose to Nova that would put them at 9-9
- Providence: They could go 0-3 or 3-0 and it wouldn't surprise me. If I were to guess though I would peg them at 10-8
- Marquette: I like our chances of going 10-8. Have to take it one game at a time and TCOB @ DePaul.
A ton of "toss up" games tomorrow - will be very interesting to see what happens.
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This may have been posted earlier in the thread, I haven't read through all pages. But I pulled together the remaining Big East schedule as well as the win percentages and projected conference records from T-Rank. The green means the team is heavily favored (>=60% chance of winning). Yellow is a toss up, which I arbitrarily defined as being from 40-60% chance of winning. And red is obviously <=40% chance of winning. (All of this is straight from T-rank).
(https://i.imgur.com/qo3OYPc.png)
Some of my thoughts:
- Butler: I think Butler is going to be 11-7, I think they're going to win both remaining games
- Seton Hall has a very difficult remaining schedule. Very possible they lose their next three or go 1-2. They were 0-4 before beating DePaul and Providence. I think 9-9 sounds about right for them.
- Creighton: I really think we win our last game against them. Assuming they lose to Nova that would put them at 9-9
- Providence: They could go 0-3 or 3-0 and it wouldn't surprise me. If I were to guess though I would peg them at 10-8
- Marquette: I like our chances of going 10-8. Have to take it one game at a time and TCOB @ DePaul.
A ton of "toss up" games tomorrow - will be very interesting to see what happens.
Thanks for the chart but I have a couple questions. If I read it right, it picks Villanova to win all 3 games yet predicts a 14-4 finish? CR to win 1 game yet projects 10-8? It doesn't seem to equate.
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Thanks for the chart but I have a couple questions. If I read it right, it picks Villanova to win all 3 games yet predicts a 14-4 finish? CR to win 1 game yet projects 10-8? It doesn't seem to equate.
It's because projections are based on aggregate percentages. So Villanova is 71+70+95=236. That means they are expected to win 2.36 games, which rounds to 2-1. Creighton's aggregate is 152, so rounded up goes to 2-1 as well. That's why the projections are always an inexact science, and even teams that are favored in every game early in the season are still projected to have multiple losses.
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This guy has been consistently better then Lunardi......not updated since the 19th....MU in first 4 out at that time.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Updated today. Looks like we are the first team out. Baylor, Texas, LSU, Washington right in front of us. Syracuse, USC, Utah right behind us.
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Pop
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If MU had moved to near the bubble line, they came crashing down today.
Weeks ago I had thought MU needed to go 10-8 in conference to get a bid, and then thought based on closer review and the comments here that 9-9 might be good enough. But as the end of the season has approached, and several bubble teams have improved their resumes while MU has faded, I think 9-9 is less than a 50-50 proposition. MU’s best wins have lost some of their lustre as SH, Creighton and Providence have faded, and now throwing a terrible loss on the pile makes MU’s resume look pretty light.
Regardless, I won’t have the enthusiasm to compare resumes unless and until MU wins on Monday, which is looking pretty doubtful. Today’s clunker was pretty much a spirit crusher.
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Mods, can we lock 🔒 down this post now...the bubble officially burst against a 10-17 team that shot 37% from the floor and still won easily.
.
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Mods, can we lock 🔒 down this post now...the bubble officially burst against a 10-17 team that shot 37% from the floor and still won easily.
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Not yet. But probably in 2 days.
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Pop
+1
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MU listed as one of the last four byes (6 teams between MU and the cutline; 2 between MU and the First Four) in Lunardi's update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/2Jl7a8ixNlNHa/200w.gif)
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Lots of bubble teams continue to lose. Shame we lost today. Bracket matrix has us up to 2nd team out. Win likely would have pushed us in.
9-9 still probably gets us to Dayton. Cheer for Nova to finish off Creighton.
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Lots of bubble teams continue to lose. Shame we lost today. Bracket matrix has us up to 2nd team out. Win likely would have pushed us in.
9-9 still probably gets us to Dayton. Cheer for Nova to finish off Creighton.
Some bubble teams that were probably ahead of MU in the first place have picked up resume helping wins while MU took that giant step backward with little chance of making it up in the next 3 games. I’m less confident than you are that going 9-9 and winning the opener in the BET will be good enough, even for a play in game. All we can do now is hope to find out. Not looking good.
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I think it's probably too late at this point, but here's the results for bubble teams this weekend.
Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
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If we lose tonight this will be my last bubble post, but for we are still in the discussion. Bracketville, historically the most accurate projection, has us as the 5th team out
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Only real bubble game tonight is Texas @ Kansas
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Remaining schedule for Lunardi's last 8 in, and first 8 out:
Virginia Tech (vs. Duke, @ Miami, ACC Tour)
Kansas State (@TCU, vs, Baylor, B12 Tour)
St. Bonnie (vs. Davidson, @ SLU, A10)
Providence (@Xavier, vs. SJU, BE)
Louisville (vs. Virginia, @NC State, ACC)
USC (vs. UCLA, P12)
Baylor (vs. Oklahoma, @ K State, B12)
Texas (@Kansas, vs. West Virginia, B12)
Syracuse (@Boston College, vs. Clemson, ACC)
UCLA (@USC, P12)
Nebraska (B10)
Mississippi State (vs. Tennessee, @LSU, SEC)
Washington (vs. Oregon State, vs. Oregon, P12)
Boise State (@San Diego State, vs. Wyoming, MWC)
Utah (vs. Colorado, P12)
Notre Dame (vs. Pitt, vs. Virginia, ACC)
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Notre Dame's resume is awful. I hadn't really analyzed them much because they really aren't that close to the bubble, but since Lunardi listed them I took a look.
3 quad 3 losses (Ball State (H), Indiana (H), Georgia Tech (A).
Only 2 quad 1 wins. Wichita State (N) in Maui and at Syracuse.
They're 7-9 in the ACC but their 7 ACC wins are Georgia Tech (H), NC State (H), Syracuse (A), Boston College (H), Florida State (H), Boston College (A), and Wake Forest (A). They'll add their 8th in PITT tomorrow, but this rivals Nebraska in terms of hollow major conference wins.
Pretty decent ratings in BPI (31), Kenpom (29) and Sagrin (25), but RPI (68) and SOR (60) are down there a ways. The only game of substance they have won since January 5th is a home game versus a very mediocre Florida State team.
Gross.
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I'm sure this has been posted, but is there a way to project what our RPI would be if we finish 2-0 and win the BET opener, but lose the next one (i.e. finish 3-1)?
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I'm sure this has been posted, but is there a way to project what our RPI would be if we finish 2-0 and win the BET opener, but lose the next one (i.e. finish 3-1)?
Yes. rpiforecast.com.
Heading into BET: 18-12; RPI 56, SOS: 26.
If 7 seed. First round W over SJU, loss to Nova. 19-13; RPI 51, SOS: 22.
If 7 seed. First round W over Depaul, loss to Nova. 19-13; RPI 56, SOS: 25.
If 6 seed. First round L to Providence. 18-13; RPI:61 , SOS:25.
If 6 seed. First round W over PC; loss to X. 19-13; RPI: 50, SOS: 17.
If 6 seed. First round L to Butler. 18-13; RPI: 61, SOS: 26.
If 6 seed. First round W over Butler; loss to X. 19-13; RPI: 51, SOS: 17.
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Getting a 7 seed and splitting SJU and Nova would be good, but would love to beat butler first round
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Thanks for doing this j5.
A few of those scenarios seem very reasonable and those computer numbers seem adequate for ncaa. I plead ignorance on these bracketology resumes, etc but would 3 of those top 4 scenarios get it done?
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Thanks for doing this j5.
A few of those scenarios seem very reasonable and those computer numbers seem adequate for ncaa. I plead ignorance on these bracketology resumes, etc but would 3 of those top 4 scenarios get it done?
I think 1, 2, 3, and 5 get it done. But a couple would be close, perhaps last team in...if we have a handful of bid stealers (as mentioned previously, the number of conferences that could produce bid stealers is pretty small (ignoring major conferences)), who knows.
I think the 6 seed gives us the best chance (albeit still small) to actually run the table in the BET. But winning the 7/10 seed game and then playing Nova probably is the best for RPI. That said, I don't know if the 2-0 finish to Big East play would be enough of a boost to get us in with just a win over SJU/Depaul in the BET.
Basically...what logic says would be the best case scenario isn't necessarily the best case scenario for RPI. If I had to choose, give me the 6 seed, let's go to battle against PC/Butler/Creighton, hopefully win that game and then take a swing at X for a chance to dance. A loss there I think we'd still have a chance at Dayton pending generally positive bubble results the next 2 weeks.
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I haven't really been paying attention to the smaller conferences, but what are some potential bid stealers?
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With ND, is Lunardi thinking that Colson might return and, if he does, and if ND wins some games, ND could get a big injury concession from the NCAA?
They might discount some of their 7 straight losses and say they aren’t indicative of the ND team with Colson.
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I haven't really been paying attention to the smaller conferences, but what are some potential bid stealers?
The only conferences outside of the P6 that are getting autobids are as follows:
American: Cinci, Wichita, Houston
Mountain West: Nevada
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Marys
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island, St. Bonnie (bubble)
So if a team outside of those listed above win their conference tournaments, bids would be stolen. I don't think any other team not in the BE, B12, ACC, SEC, B10 or P12 is getting an at large invite if they don't win their conference tournament. Boise (MWC) is fringe bubble, but I don't think they're getting an at large. Would be best if they just lost early in MWC tourney.
I think the potentially riskier situation is a team from major conference that wouldn't otherwise get a bid winning their tourney or picking up some huge wins to boost their at large resume. UCLA, Washington, Utah maybe running the table in the P12? Perhaps Penn State or Nebraska getting some big wins the B10 tournament and running to the finals and maybe staling an AQ or at large. Perhaps Georgia, LSU or Mississppi in the SEC. Notre Dame, Louisville, Cuse in the ACC. Oklahoma State or Texas in the B12 (Texas very well may have 14 losses by the end of this week).
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Yes. rpiforecast.com.
Heading into BET: 18-12; RPI 56, SOS: 26.
If 7 seed. First round W over SJU, loss to Nova. 19-13; RPI 51, SOS: 22.
If 7 seed. First round W over Depaul, loss to Nova. 19-13; RPI 56, SOS: 25.
If 6 seed. First round L to Providence. 18-13; RPI:61 , SOS:25.
If 6 seed. First round W over PC; loss to X. 19-13; RPI: 50, SOS: 17.
If 6 seed. First round L to Butler. 18-13; RPI: 61, SOS: 26.
If 6 seed. First round W over Butler; loss to X. 19-13; RPI: 51, SOS: 17.
Wow, thanks for this. It seems like any of the 3-1 scenarios leaves us with a decent shot at getting in.
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T Rank also has us safely in at 8-10 if we win 2 in the BET (SJU and Nova) and lose in the semifinals. 5th last team in, avoiding Dayton.
I don't think that would turn out to be accurate.
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Wow, thanks for this. It seems like any of the 3-1 scenarios leaves us with a decent shot at getting in.
Bracketology has been funny this season. If we go 9-9 were going to end with a better RPI and SOS then last year when we were a 10 seed. That's why so many of us were so confident. Despite this, we get zero love from Lunardi and the like. Not sure if it's new points of emphasis or what. We've got 4 Q1 wins but I think @Hall, @PROV, and -CREI just don't do it for some people... Even though they are good wins on paper.
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T Rank also has us safely in at 8-10 if we win 2 in the BET (SJU and Nova) and lose in the semifinals. 5th last team in, avoiding Dayton.
I don't think that would turn out to be accurate.
If that happened, assuming the loss in the BET would be Butler, we'd end up with an RPI of 61, and SOS of 22.
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Getting a 7 seed and splitting SJU and Nova would be good, but would love to beat butler first round
I don't want us anywhere near Butler in the BET
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Bracketology has been funny this season. If we go 9-9 were going to end with a better RPI and SOS then last year when we were a 10 seed. That's why so many of us were so confident. Despite this, we get zero love from Lunardi and the like. Not sure if it's new points of emphasis or what. We've got 4 Q1 wins but I think @Hall, @PROV, and -CREI just don't do it for some people... Even though they are good wins on paper.
Sweeps of both Seton Hall and Creighton would be pretty difficult to ignore.
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Sweeps of both Seton Hall and Creighton would be pretty difficult to ignore.
See I would think so, but they've been ignoring sweeps of Hall, @Creighton, and @PROV thus far. Guess they are not signature enough for the bracketologists
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Lose v. Creighton: Gotta win BET
Win and 0-1 BET: I would guess no
Win and 1-1 BET: I would guess yes
Win and 2-1 BET: Lock.
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Lose v. Creighton: Gotta win BET
Win and 0-1 BET: I would guess no
Win and 1-1 BET: I would guess yes
Win and 2-1 BET: Lock.
All of the above. So, lets beat Creighton, who just beat Nova and then revenge game against St. Johns.
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See I would think so, but they've been ignoring sweeps of Hall, @Creighton, and @PROV thus far. Guess they are not signature enough for the bracketologists
If they can complete the sweep of Creighton we can look more closely. But my theory is that MU is hurt by not having any wins against REALLY top teams, like teams in the top 10, and not just hanging around the top 25. Last year MU got a big boost with the win over Villanova. I would bet that if they had lost to Villanova but won one against Butler they would have been a couple of spots lower on the seed list.
When we compare MU’s resume with the last few teams in the field we should add a space for “best win” and see if that tells us anything.
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All of the above. So, lets beat Creighton, who just beat Nova and then revenge game against St. Johns.
I'd sooner beat Creighton, St. John's, Villanova, Providence, and Xavier just to eliminate any doubt.
Seems lofty, I'll admit.
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Lose v. Creighton: Gotta win BET
Win and 0-1 BET: I would guess no
Win and 1-1 BET: I would guess yes
Win and 2-1 BET: Lock.
Pending a closer review of the resumes of who’s right around the cut line after this weekend I am a little more bearish than this. Past history tells me that the Committee doesn’t put as much weight of conference tournament games as fans do. If MU isn’t in the field going into the conference tournaments, a win over St. John’s isn’t going to put them in unless a few teams just ahead of them take horrendous losses, which in some of the top conferences is almost impossible.
A win over St. John’s followed by a win over Villanova would put MU in the conversation, but could still depend on what the other teams right on the cut line do.
That loss to DePaul really hurt on Saturday, and it hurts even more now with the Georgetown game (which should have been the tougher of the two) in the bank.
The fun thing is that we have 4 days now to see how the cut line is shaping up and, if MU can win Saturday, a few more to narrow it down even further.
Can still hope for Seton Hall to lose their last two and give MU a chance to get the 6 seed and avoid the Wednesday game. That would give MU a chance to get a win over an NCAA bound team before facing Villanova. 1-1 in the BET with a win over Butler would look a lot better than 1-1 with the win over SJU.
ETA: I just looked really quickly at the records of the last 10 or so teams that are in the field in Lunardi’s bracket. There aren’t as many as I thought there might be that have wins against top 10 or even top 20 teams. So, I’ll have to look for other factors that put some of those teams ahead of MU in the pecking order.
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That loss to DePaul really hurt on Saturday, and it hurts even more now with the Georgetown game (which should have been the tougher of the two) in the bank.
I've been thinking this all night. Had we won that DePaul games and all other things remained equal, I think we'd have pretty much stamped our ticket tonight. That loss is looming very large now.
On the upside, we are probably guaranteed a NIT bid now. I know some fans don't get excited for the NIT, but for a young team like ours, the chance for extra elimination-style games could really help get them ready for next year. Obviously I'd prefer the NCAA, even as a Dayton play-in, but any extra basketball is good basketball.
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I'd sooner beat Creighton, St. John's, Villanova, Providence, and Xavier just to eliminate any doubt.
Seems lofty, I'll admit.
If SH loses next 2 we win Sat and 1 BET unless SH goes on a big run I do not see how they could leave us out unless there is a huge amount of unexpected tournament results. Then would only 5 BE teams.
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This W puts us in the postseason and keeps alive the NCAA possibility. If the NIT, the extra practice time, and likely home games, will help a young team develop. Heck, they could win a few in a row and get back to NYC.
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I took out NC State (IN) and took out Penn State (OUT). Added Boise St.
Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
——————————————————-BracketMatrix Cut Line——————————————-
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Boise State has to play @SDSU and Wyoming.
Nebraska just has Penn St. BT Tournament: winner of Mich, Iowa, or UIUC
MARQUETTE
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
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A few thoughts on those last couple teams in that I posted above.
Providence would have to lose both, and even then they might be in with X and VU wins.
It would be really nice to see K-State and Baylor go into their last game both on two-game losing streaks. In that case, the loser is probably out.
USC falling to UCLA, Texas losing to WV, or Louisville losing to Virginia or NC State aren’t bad enough losses to knock those teams out.
St. Bona dropping games against Davidson and SLU is unlikely, but would hurt their resume big time.
So what I’m saying is, those teams ahead of us need to really screw up for us to pass them. Plus there are seven teams in front of us to take their place. It’s not looking pretty. I think we’re playing for NIT seeding at this point, but I’d love to be wrong.
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A few thoughts on those last couple teams in that I posted above.
Providence would have to lose both, and even then they might be in with X and VU wins.
It would be really nice to see K-State and Baylor go into their last game both on two-game losing streaks. In that case, the loser is probably out.
USC falling to UCLA, Texas losing to WV, or Louisville losing to Virginia or NC State aren’t bad enough losses to knock those teams out.
St. Bona dropping games against Davidson and SLU is unlikely, but would hurt their resume big time.
So what I’m saying is, those teams ahead of us need to really screw up for us to pass them. Plus there are seven teams in front of us to take their place. It’s not looking pretty. I think we’re playing for NIT seeding at this point, but I’d love to be wrong.
If Creighton/SH/MU end up 9-9 would we be 6 or 5 seed?
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If Creighton/SH/MU end up 9-9 would we be 6 or 5 seed?
5 seed. Would require Creighton to lose s home game to DePaul though.
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If Creighton/SH/MU end up 9-9 would we be 6 or 5 seed?
5. We’d win the mini-conference by virtue of a 4-0 record against those teams. Creighton would have to lose against DePaul for us to end up in that situation, though. Hell, we could get the four seed if Providence loses out to end at 9-9 too.
But even if it did happen, I doubt the committee will look at conference standings to determine seeding. It just doesn’t matter as much as wins and losses. Nebraska got the 4 seed in the B10 tournament, but they are still well behind Michigan (5 seed) in the pecking order.
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Makes sense, though I still think the chance of us being ahead of teams selected in the final Big East standings would give us a better shot than Nebraska over Michigan - because we do have components like Quadrant 1 wins and road wins. I believe we need three more wins - vs. Creighton, whoever we play as a 6 or 7 seed first, and then we'd end up with the 2-seed (either Xavier or Villanova). That last one is the really hard single game to see, but we've played them both fairly tough once this year.
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Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.
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Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.
Don't need that much. 1 win in NYC may be enough. 2 definitely would be.
And if we make it to the final of the BET we may as well win the damn thing.
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Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.
Oddly enough, I think beat Creighton, beat anyone in NYC, and play X or Nova (quarters or semis, doesn’t matter) might be enough to do it. Just playing X or Nova again would make our SOS and RPI pretty brilliant looking, plus the two wins would push us to 9 wins in Q1 and Q2.
Not convinced it’ll happen though.
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We got this.
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Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.
Haha—OK. Settle down. We beat Georgetown. We aren’t playing for a BEAST championship.
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And if we make it to the final of the BET we may as well win the damn thing.
I agree with this analysis.
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5 seed. Would require Creighton to lose s home game to DePaul though.
DePaul did beat Providence by 17 at the Dunk...
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Torvik and Stewart Mandel have MU in the first four out.
That f*cking DePaul game, man.
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Torvik and Stewart Mandel have MU in the first four out.
That f*cking DePaul game, man.
Or the Providence game... Or the Nova game... Or the Xavier game... Or the Georgia game.
A W in any one of these close losses and we are probably in at this point... Of course a loss in any of our close wins and we are probably not in the bubble conversation
Just goes to show how much a few points can swing a season
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Oddly enough, I think beat Creighton, beat anyone in NYC, and play X or Nova (quarters or semis, doesn’t matter) might be enough to do it. Just playing X or Nova again would make our SOS and RPI pretty brilliant looking, plus the two wins would push us to 9 wins in Q1 and Q2.
Not convinced it’ll happen though.
This is what is needed to make me feel pretty confident. I think we have a chance at Dayton if we end up with the 6 and lose in the 3/6 game, but I almost prefer to get the 7 seed, win that game, and then get one more shot at Nova team we've played pretty tough. A win and we are safely in the field and avoid Dayton. A loss and I will be nervous on Selection Sunday, but I think we'd ultimately sneak into the play-in games.
Obviously all this requires beating Creighton on Saturday.
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How much of a bump would our RPI get just by playing Nova/X a third time?
IMO right now the thing I'm most nervous about is our RPI, I know that hey look at it less now than they have in years past, but I would feel a whole lot better with 9-9 if our RPI were 10-12 slots higher.
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This is what is needed to make me feel pretty confident. I think we have a chance at Dayton if we end up with the 6 and lose in the 3/6 game, but I almost prefer to get the 7 seed, win that game, and then get one more shot at Nova team we've played pretty tough. A win and we are safely in the field and avoid Dayton. A loss and I will be nervous on Selection Sunday, but I think we'd ultimately sneak into the play-in games.
Obviously all this requires beating Creighton on Saturday.
Thinking too far into the future here but if we get into Dayton that could potentially be good, win that game and get a 6 seed, i would like our chances just need to get momentum and beat creighton finish on a high note
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If the SJU 7/10 game is considered a road game, RPIwizard has MU at 51 if they win and lose to Nova.
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we're marching again this year
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How much of a bump would our RPI get just by playing Nova/X a third time?
IMO right now the thing I'm most nervous about is our RPI, I know that hey look at it less now than they have in years past, but I would feel a whole lot better with 9-9 if our RPI were 10-12 slots higher.
Look back a couple pages. Went through most scenarios late yesterday afternoon.
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we're marching again this year
how
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If the SJU 7/10 game is considered a road game, RPIwizard has MU at 51 if they win and lose to Nova.
Thanks, I would be fairly comfortable with that
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Not to sound like Wades but Saturday's the biggest game of the season.
We basically control our own destiny here on out.
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Not to sound like Wades but Saturday's the biggest game of the season.
We basically control our own destiny here on out.
I agree Saturday is biggest game of the season.
But pretty much every team that didn’t lose last night in their conference tourney opener still controls their own destiny.
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how
by beating CU saturday and getting one in the BET, tough to do but we got it
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Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.
That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.
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It's the Q1 and Q2 wins, people. We have 7 right now. If we win two more against Creighton and then anybody in NYC we would have NINE. Not many teams can match that on the bubble. (Having 5 true road wins also helps)
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It aint enough
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Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.
That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.
Most people thought we would be a lock if we went 3-0 over the last 3. 2-1 puts us firmly on the bubble, can't pick up a bad loss in NYC, and as long as we get the 6 seed, any win would be Q1.
Most teams on the bubble have at least one Q3/Q4 loss, and as bad as DePaul is, other teams have worse losses
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Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.
That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.
I agree, the NIT looks really interesting, play Notre Dame. Get a good seed and play a few games, do not play Rowsey, just underclassmen, might as well.
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Most people thought we would be a lock if we went 3-0 over the last 3. 2-1 puts us firmly on the bubble, can't pick up a bad loss in NYC, and as long as we get the 6 seed, any win would be Q1.
Most teams on the bubble have at least one Q3/Q4 loss, and as bad as DePaul is, other teams have worse losses
yes but the thing is, we were barely on the radar before depaul, now we aren't on it. We just dont have the time to make it up
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yes but the thing is, we were barely on the radar before depaul, now we aren't on it. We just dont have the time to make it up
We might not have been on E$PN's radar, but based on bracket matrix, we've been right there for a while now.
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Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.
That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.
Regarding the bolded, I agree. But its not the people you're referring to.
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It's the Q1 and Q2 wins, people. We have 7 right now. If we win two more against Creighton and then anybody in NYC we would have NINE. Not many teams can match that on the bubble. (Having 5 true road wins also helps)
Did some quick research on the NCAA Nitty Gritty report. If we use the formula Q1wins + Q2wins - Q3 and Q4 losses this is what we get:
St. Bona 4 (Q1) +4 (Q2) -2 (Q3 and Q4) = 6
USC 4+4-1= 7
LVille 3+2-0= 5
Syracuse 2+4-2= 4
Washington 3+2-2= 3
Utah 3+3-1= 5
UCLA 3+3-2= 4
Nebraska 1+2-1= 2 (yikes)
Mississippi State 3+4-0= 7
K-State 3+6-1= 8
Baylor 4+2-0= 6
Georgia 4+4-2= 6
MARQUETTE 4+3-1= 6
So of those bubble teams...THREE have better scores on my very basic quadrant method here. Add two more Q1 and Q2 wins (with basically no chance of a Q3 or Q4 loss) and we're at 9. We're at least in the conversation.
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Tonight's bubble action:
Tennessee @ Mississippi State (First Four Out)
Florida @ Alabama (9 seed; probably safe)
Missouri (10 seed) @ Vanderbilt
Miami (9 seed; probably safe) @ North Carolina
Auburn @ Arkansas (7 seed, probably safe but 9-7 in SEC)
Oklahoma (8 seed) @ Baylor (last four in)
Kansas State (11 seed) @ TCU
Davidson @ St. Bonnie (last four in)
Boise State (next four out) @ San Diego State
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ESPN's Bubble Watch just came out. They have Nova, Xavier, Creighton, Butler and SH as locks. Providence is "should be in" and Marquette is "work to do." At least we're still in the conversation, and that was before we beat Georgetown last night.
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Not to sound like Wades but Saturday's the biggest game of the season.
We basically control our own destiny here on out.
We have been controlling our own destiny since we got to the "easy" part of the schedule.
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Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.
That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.
You got that first sentence right. The rest, not so much. When it comes to selection, one downfall of the bracketologists is they create a bracket in December or January then move teams in and out based on results. That's not what the Selection Committee does. They aren't working on the notion of constantly updating from an old bracket, they are starting in the now.
That's why we saw the massive flaw in the Lunardi model. Marquette was in the bracket and Georgia wasn't even next four out. Over the next couple weeks, MU went 3-1 and Georgia went 2-3 and we dropped off consideration while they moved to first four out. Why? Because he isn't looking at the resumes with fresh eyes, he's just updating on a daily basis. In doing so, he sees the micro changes but completely misses the big picture that the committee focuses on.
That's why people like 5J, TAMU, and myself are still bullish on our chances. Because we're looking at blind resumes and seeing that Marquette compares favorably to most anyone in the 16 on the bubble spots. Compare the losses. Compare the Q1/Q2 performances. Compare the road records. Compare the computer metrics. We're right there, even if the micro view doesn't see it.
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Beat Creighton twice and Hall twice, then MU has something to talk about. Saturday is important, then have to win at least one but probably 2 games in the tourny.
Which we could play Providence or X. Not Villy.
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ESPN's Bubble Watch just came out. They have Nova, Xavier, Creighton, Butler and SH as locks. Providence is "should be in" and Marquette is "work to do." At least we're still in the conversation, and that was before we beat Georgetown last night.
Here is the whole summary about MU from the ESPN Bubble Watch:
"In theory, the Golden Eagles should be a Bubble Watch memory by this point. This is a team that lost at DePaul a few days ago and now sports a record of 16-12 and 7-9 in Big East play.
All true enough. Still, the season sweep over Seton Hall, plus the road wins at Creighton and Providence are still there on Marquette's profile. That's not good enough on its own for an at-large bid, goodness knows, but finishing with a win at home against Creighton can at least continue the conversation."
The write up says 7-9 in conference, but the data in the heading says 8-9. Basically, the GU win doesn't help much other than removing the possibility of a fatal loss.
The NBC Sports website has a daily "Bubble Banter" feature with winners and losers from the previous day. Here is what they say about MU after the Georgetown win:
"Marquette flirted with disaster, but disaster couldn’t seal the deal, meaning that the Golden Eagles avoided losing to DePaul and Georgetown in back-to-back games. I still think Marquette is pretty far away from the bubble at this point. Not only is Saturday’s home game against Creighton a must-win, but they are going to have to win at least a game or two in the Big East tournament if they really, truly want to be in the mix for a bid on Selection Sunday."
The national consensus seems pretty clear: MU beating Creighton and winning one game in the BET is a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, condition to MU getting an at large bid. A tall order for a team that I don't think has won 3 straight BE games in the Wojo era.
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Here is the whole summary about MU from the ESPN Bubble Watch:
"In theory, the Golden Eagles should be a Bubble Watch memory by this point. This is a team that lost at DePaul a few days ago and now sports a record of 16-12 and 7-9 in Big East play.
All true enough. Still, the season sweep over Seton Hall, plus the road wins at Creighton and Providence are still there on Marquette's profile. That's not good enough on its own for an at-large bid, goodness knows, but finishing with a win at home against Creighton can at least continue the conversation."
The write up says 7-9 in conference, but the data in the heading says 8-9. Basically, the GU win doesn't help much other than removing the possibility of a fatal loss.
The NBC Sports website has a daily "Bubble Banter" feature with winners and losers from the previous day. Here is what they say about MU after the Georgetown win:
"Marquette flirted with disaster, but disaster couldn’t seal the deal, meaning that the Golden Eagles avoided losing to DePaul and Georgetown in back-to-back games. I still think Marquette is pretty far away from the bubble at this point. Not only is Saturday’s home game against Creighton a must-win, but they are going to have to win at least a game or two in the Big East tournament if they really, truly want to be in the mix for a bid on Selection Sunday."
The national consensus seems pretty clear: MU beating Creighton and winning one game in the BET is a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, condition to MU getting an at large bid. A tall order for a team that I don't think has won 3 straight BE games in the Wojo era.
It appears to me that the ESPN bubble watch was written yesterday, before MU played. Don't think much would change, but worth noting.
Also worth noting that Rob Dauster does the NBC write-ups, and while he is decent twitter follow, he doesn't do his own brackets, and not sure his opinion is worth much of anything.
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It appears to me that the ESPN bubble watch was written yesterday, before MU played. Don't think much would change, but worth noting.
Also worth noting that Rob Dauster does the NBC write-ups, and while he is decent twitter follow, he doesn't do his own brackets, and not sure his opinion is worth much of anything.
The ESPN bubble watch was at least edited after last night's games because it mentions VT's win over Duke and puts the Hokies into lock status. It also includes comments about Texas' loss to Kansas. And, as I said, the heading for MU has their updated record. So, there was probably a conscious decision that a win over GU (Q3) does nothing to improve MU's status and required no editing. If MU had lost they probably would have been dropped completely.
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So beat Creighton and we can be content with regard to our regular season finishing conference at 9-9 given our defensive deficiencies, mid-season transfer, and a head coach still cutting his teeth - even if that means an NIT. Of course, I want more and I think we can get more with a strong showing at the BET.
One thing we can all agree on is that the next two years (and hopefully beyond) are going to be a lot of fun.
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You got that first sentence right. The rest, not so much. When it comes to selection, one downfall of the bracketologists is they create a bracket in December or January then move teams in and out based on results. That's not what the Selection Committee does. They aren't working on the notion of constantly updating from an old bracket, they are starting in the now.
That's why we saw the massive flaw in the Lunardi model. Marquette was in the bracket and Georgia wasn't even next four out. Over the next couple weeks, MU went 3-1 and Georgia went 2-3 and we dropped off consideration while they moved to first four out. Why? Because he isn't looking at the resumes with fresh eyes, he's just updating on a daily basis. In doing so, he sees the micro changes but completely misses the big picture that the committee focuses on.
That's why people like 5J, TAMU, and myself are still bullish on our chances. Because we're looking at blind resumes and seeing that Marquette compares favorably to most anyone in the 16 on the bubble spots. Compare the losses. Compare the Q1/Q2 performances. Compare the road records. Compare the computer metrics. We're right there, even if the micro view doesn't see it.
Preach!
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The ESPN bubble watch was at least edited after last night's games because it mentions VT's win over Duke and puts the Hokies into lock status. It also includes comments about Texas' loss to Kansas. And, as I said, the heading for MU has their updated record. So, there was probably a conscious decision that a win over GU (Q3) does nothing to improve MU's status and required no editing. If MU had lost they probably would have been dropped completely.
Well, it also says we are 7-9 in conference so.....
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NM
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2761517-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracket-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68
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If you put up blind resumes of about 40 teams I think many would be shocked how we look compared to many that are supposedly locks in the tournament. If that Depaul loss happened 2 months ago the talk is completely different.
Oklahoma for one is a team that should be on the outside looking in. They are not a good team currently.
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Is SH still a lock if they lose their next two games (won't hurt them much against Xavier & Nova), and we win Sat., SH would become 7th. I know it is unlikely but if they lose to DePaul, I think they end up in the bubble.
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Is SH still a lock if they lose their next two games (won't hurt them much against Xavier & Nova), and we win Sat., SH would become 7th. I know it is unlikely but if they lose to DePaul, I think they end up in the bubble.
Seton Hall has strong overall metrics and a few other things going for them, like a strong OOC schedule. if they lose the next 3 I think it will just affect their seed.
This late in the season if a team is considered a lock it should mean that they are in even if they lose their last 2 or 3 games.
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Seton Hall has strong overall metrics and a few other things going for them, like a strong OOC schedule. if they lose the next 3 I think it will just affect their seed.
This late in the season if a team is considered a lock it should mean that they are in even if they lose their last 2 or 3 games.
I see them in right know but I don't see them as a high enough seed. I could see them getting into trouble if they lose the next 2 and go 0-1 in BET
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I see them in right know but I don't see them as a high enough seed. I could see them getting into trouble if they lose the next 2 and go 0-1 in BET
The Braxket Mateix has them as a consensus 7 seed. That puts them between 25 and 28 on the seed list. I don’t see them falling from there to all the way out of the field with 3 losses, especially where 2 of them would be to Villanova and Butler. The at large teams usually go down to about 45 or so on the seed list, depending on how many automatic bids are taken by teams that would have received at large bids if they hadn’t won their conference tournaments.
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St. Bonnie's and Davidson in the final seconds of 2OT on CBS SN.
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St. Bonnie's and Davidson in the final seconds of 2OT on CBS SN.
Great game. 100-100 with 19 sec left in 2OT.
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Great game. 100-100 with 19 sec left in 2OT.
It'll only be great if Davidson can pull it out. Headed to 3OT.
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I agree the way you've set up Bracket Matrix makes the most sense. However, just to give an alternate (best case perhaps) view, I lined them up based on ESPN's resume (their claim is strength of record - how likely the 25th ranked team would be to match your record - is the best predictor). This places Marquette as in by 2 spots with Boise State behind them.
10-seeds or lower based on ESPN Resume SOR
Texas A&M 10 SEC 18-11 51% at Georgia, 71% vs Bama
St. Bonaventure 10 A 10 22-6 overtime vs Davidson, 57% at St. Louis
Louisville 10 ACC 19-10 29% vs Uva, 40% at NC State
Florida 10 SEC 18-11 73-52 over bama; 62% vs. Kentucky
Texas 11 Big 12 17-13 45% vs. West Virginia
Saint Mary's 11 WCC 27-4 West Coast Tournament
Baylor 11 Big 12 17-12 beat Oklahoma 87-64, 43% at K-State
Mississippi State 11 SEC 21-8 LOST 54-76 to Tennessee; 40% at LSU
Providence 11 Big East 18-11 16% at Xavier, 64% vs St. John's
Marquette 12 Big East 17-12 53% vs. Creighton
Boise State 12 MW 22-6 vs San Diego State late, 82% vs. Wyoming
cutoff based on ESPN Resume Strength of Record
Maryland -- Big Ten 19-12 Big Ten Tournament
Missouri -- SEC 18-11 beat Vanderbilt 74-66; 62% vs. Arkansas
Syracuse -- ACC 18-11 49% at BC, 50% vs Clemson
USC -- Pac-12 21-9 67% vs. UCLA
Arizona State -- Pac-12 19-9 95% vs. Cal, 80% vs. Stanford
Alabama -- SEC 17-12 lost 52-73 to Florida
Georgia -- SEC 16-12 29% at Texas A&M
Notre Dame -- ACC 17-12 95% vs Pitt, 14% at Virginia
Oklahoma State -- Big 12 16-13 beat Iowa 80-71, 35% vs. Kansas
Western Kentucky -- C-USA 22-7 35% at Middle TN, 61% at UAB
UCLA -- Pac-12 19-10 33% at USC
Temple -- American 16-12 62% at Uconn, 47% at Tulsa
LSU -- SEC 16-12 43% at South Carolina, 60% vs Miss St.
Penn State -- Big Ten 19-12 Big Ten Tournament
Utah -- Pac-12 18-10 77% vs Colorado
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Tonight's bubble action:
Tennessee @ Mississippi State (First Four Out)
Florida @ Alabama (9 seed; probably safe)
Missouri (10 seed) @ Vanderbilt
Miami (9 seed; probably safe) @ North Carolina
Auburn @ Arkansas (7 seed, probably safe but 9-7 in SEC)
Oklahoma (8 seed) @ Baylor (last four in)
Kansas State (11 seed) @ TCU
Davidson @ St. Bonnie (last four in)
Boise State (next four out) @ San Diego State
Miss St lost
Bama lost
Miami won
Arkansas won
Baylor won / Oklahoma lost
K State lost
Davidson up 4 in 3OT
Boise up 3 in 1H
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Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.
That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.
I agree with this analysis.
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The Braxket Mateix has them as a consensus 7 seed. That puts them between 25 and 28 on the seed list. I don’t see them falling from there to all the way out of the field with 3 losses, especially where 2 of them would be to Villanova and Butler. The at large teams usually go down to about 45 or so on the seed list, depending on how many automatic bids are taken by teams that would have received at large bids if they hadn’t won their conference tournaments.
If they are really that high of a seed then it is correct they won't be near the bubble.
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Alabama (17-13) and Oklahoma (17-12) both lost by 20+ tonight and are a combined 3-12 in February...are they bubble teams yet? A couple good results with K-State, Miss St, and Boise losing, but Baylor and Bonaventure (3 OTs!) got big wins.
Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
——————————————————-BracketMatrix Cut Line——————————————-
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Boise State has to play @SDSU and Wyoming.
Nebraska just has Penn St. BT Tournament: winner of Mich, Iowa, or UIUC
MARQUETTE
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
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When OU gets into the tourney it will be the biggest abomination in tourney history
That team is absolutely horrendous.
Once teams realized that all you have to do is smother Young they have been dreadful and Young himself hasn’t been much better.
Every other play on that team is trash.
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Boise State lost. Solid night for MU
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San Diego State knocks off Boise State.
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@auburnmarquette, I could easily make a pretty good argument that MU belongs at the back end of the field, especially if they beat Creighton. But the million dollar question is what the Committee values the most out of the dozens of data points in its teams sheets. Who knows if the new Quadrant system will produce different results than past years?
If I wanted to be simplistic and objective I could just look at the RPI (which, with all of its known flaws, is still used as the basis to rank teams and quality of wins) and the average of all of the other metrics on the team sheets. Because the top 46-48 teams should be in the field before you get to the lesser one bid conference winners, teams with ratings around 50 and above are going to need something else to make their case, and that’s where MU is now.
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@auburnmarquette, I could easily make a pretty good argument that MU belongs at the back end of the field, especially if they beat Creighton. But the million dollar question is what the Committee values the most out of the dozens of data points in its teams sheets. Who knows if the new Quadrant system will produce different results than past years?
If I wanted to be simplistic and objective I could just look at the RPI (which, with all of its known flaws, is still used as the basis to rank teams and quality of wins) and the average of all of the other metrics on the team sheets. Because the top 46-48 teams should be in the field before you get to the lesser one bid conference winners, teams with ratings around 50 and above are going to need something else to make their case, and that’s where MU is now.
Just looking at RPI you also have to take out the low majors with exaggerated RPIs. Teams like Northeastern, Vermont, Louisiana Lafayette, Buffalo, and New Mexico State have great RPIs but historically have never been included in the tournament as an at large. If Marquette beats Creighton, St John's (in the BET), and loses to Nova their RPI will be in the top 46-48 once you remove those low majors.
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For what its worth CBS know has marquette in there first 4 out number 4 andnd ESPN now have marquette in the next four out number 7.
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I agree with this analysis.
My only difference is that I believe we are a lock if we were to win 3 more ending in beating the 2-seed. Looking at rpi forecast our rpi and sos would be so good at that point that with 20 wins we'd be a lock. However I agree anything short of that would leave us out.
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If Seton Hall is thought that highly of by the committee then MU's sweep over them should look awfully good to, right?
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Interesting tidbit I discovered while looking at our resume. Until their defeat of Nova this past weekend, Creighton had exactly one Q1 victory. A home victory over Seton Hall. They are obviously a lock, especially since they beat Nova, but I thought it was interesting
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Torvik has MU in the last four in.
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I think this is going to be a jaw dropping selection Sunday this year.
Like TAMU just said: creigthon has 2 Q1 win. It's a big win, but they have just one!
What is the committee going to value more? RPI and SOS? Q1 and 2 wins? Q 3-4 loses?
As someone else said, mu has some good Q1-2 losses and only one (fuggin DePaul) Q 3-4 loss.
What if the committee values that over RPI or SOS? This could be an interesting selection for that bubble where they take teams with the better Q wins vs RPI&SOS.
Edit: TAMU said 2. I'm half blind apparently.
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Just looking at RPI you also have to take out the low majors with exaggerated RPIs. Teams like Northeastern, Vermont, Louisiana Lafayette, Buffalo, and New Mexico State have great RPIs but historically have never been included in the tournament as an at large. If Marquette beats Creighton, St John's (in the BET), and loses to Nova their RPI will be in the top 46-48 once you remove those low majors.
That’s why I said RPI and the other metrics that show on the team sheets. Those teams have good looking RPIs, but they are exposed by the other metrics. An RPI of 40, but 75 average of all metrics, is a pretty good indicator of a team that won’t be getting an at large bid
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I think this is going to be a jaw dropping selection Sunday this year.
Like TAMU just said: creigthon has 1 Q1 win. It's a big win, but they have just one!
What is the committee going to value more? RPI and SOS? Q1 and 2 wins? Q 3-4 loses?
As someone else said, mu has some good Q1-2 losses and only one (fuggin DePaul) Q 3-4 loss.
What if the committee values that over RPI or SOS? This could be an interesting selection for that bubble where they take teams with the better Q wins vs RPI&SOS.
Actually I said Creighton has 2 now. They had 1 before beating Nova. But I agree with your general point. I think bracketologists will be historically less accurate this season due to the supposed change in emphasis.
We have a good shot to finish this season with better computer numbers than last season but may still be in the NIT, it's an interesting year
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If Seton Hall is thought that highly of by the committee then MU's sweep over them should look awfully good to, right?
Sure, but that only takes MU so far.
Just like Penn State’s sweep over Ohio State.
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Sure, but that only takes MU so far.
Just like Penn State’s sweep over Ohio State.
Erase the Seton Hall sweep and the Ohio State sweep, MU's resume is much better than Penn States.
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BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose.
Team 1
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 42
SOS: mid 50s
Team 2
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 35
SOS: mid 20s
Team 3
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: high teens
Team 4
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: high 50s
Team 5
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 47
SOS: mid teens
Team 6
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-6
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: High single digits
Team 7
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: mid 90s
Team 8
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-1
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 20s
Team 9
Q1: 4-10
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: Lows 20s
Team 10
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: high 50s
Team 11
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 46
SOS: mid 80s
Team 12
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 7-1
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 40s
Team 13
Q1: 1-5
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 11-0
Avg Metric: 54
SOS: low 100s
Team 14
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: mid 20s
Team 15
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: low 40s
Team 16
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 77
SOS: low 50s
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Erase the Seton Hall sweep and the Ohio State sweep, MU's resume is much better than Penn States.
Absolutely true. The point is that you have to look at the whole picture, not just the best two games.
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Torvik has MU in the last four in.
Yep. 43% chance for a bid.
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My approach to the blind resumes would be:
1. Sort the teams by average metrics as a starting point.
2. Then look at the SOS and quadrant wins to see if there is anything unusually positive or negative to knock a team up or down.
Maybe later today I can take the time to pick my 8 in and 8 out. But, I would also like to see who those Q1 wins are against and give some bonus consideration to the teams that have beaten top 5 or top 10 teams over those whose best wins are against teams ranked 25-30.
Right out of the gate a team like number 13 (i'm pretty sure I know who that is) would be kicked to the curb with mediocre metrics for this group, low number of quality wins, and a weak SOS.
A team like team 3 would be in because of good metrics, strong SOS, and 8 Q 1 and 2 wins. I would work to the middle from there.
Team 8 would be a good candidate to overcome its metrics because of 8 quality wins and a strong SOS, especially if any of those Q1 wins is against a top 10 team.
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BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose.
Team 1 - IN
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 42
SOS: mid 50s
Team 2- IN
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 35
SOS: mid 20s
Team 3- IN
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: high teens
Team 4- OUT
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: high 50s
Team 5- OUT
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 47
SOS: mid teens
Team 6- IN
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-6
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: High single digits
Team 7 - OUT
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: mid 90s
Team 8- OUT
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-1
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 20s
Team 9 - IN
Q1: 4-10
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: Lows 20s
Team 10- OUT
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: high 50s
Team 11 - IN
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 46
SOS: mid 80s
Team 12 - IN
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 7-1
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 40s
Team 13- OUT
Q1: 1-5
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 11-0
Avg Metric: 54
SOS: low 100s
Team 14 - IN
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: mid 20s
Team 15 - OUT
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: low 40s
Team 16 - OUT
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 77
SOS: low 50s
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Yah, pretty similar to mine OD. 1,2,3,6,8,9,12,14 in. The rest out. I was on the fence between 8 and 5 for the last spot. 11 close behind.
But, as wiscblue said, blind resume snapshots only tell you so much. More data on the individual notable wins and losses is needed to truly differentiate.
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BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose.
Team 1
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 42
SOS: mid 50s
Team 2
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 35
SOS: mid 20s
Team 3
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: high teens
Team 4
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: high 50s
Team 5
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 47
SOS: mid teens
Team 6
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-6
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: High single digits
Team 7
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: mid 90s
Team 8
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-1
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 20s
Team 9
Q1: 4-10
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: Lows 20s
Team 10
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: high 50s
Team 11
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 46
SOS: mid 80s
Team 12
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 7-1
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 40s
Team 13
Q1: 1-5
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 11-0
Avg Metric: 54
SOS: low 100s
Team 14
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: mid 20s
Team 15
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: low 40s
Team 16
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 77
SOS: low 50s
Teams that should be in:
1,2,3,6,9,14
(And MU I believe is 14?)
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Yah, pretty similar to mine OD. 1,2,3,6,8,9,12,14 in. The rest out. I was on the fence between 8 and 5 for the last spot. 11 close behind.
But, as wiscblue said, blind resume snapshots only tell you so much. More data on the individual notable wins and losses is needed to truly differentiate.
Please expand on the bolded. What else is needed??? The teams names? What conference? I mean should that matter if the RPI and SOS are solid as well?
This SHOULD be done blindly.
To expand. A Q1 is a Q1 win in the eyes of the committee. It shouldn't matter if it is SHU or Nova (although I get that t does... but if they made this a Quadrant thing, then stick with the quadrant thing. A Q1 win shouldn't mean more than another Q1 win.)
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They still look at quality of Q1 wins. That's what caused our drop out if the rankings despite winning in early February. Our best wins were the sweep of Seton Hall. When Hall started to tank... So did the perception of our resume. That's also why we are rising now despite the DePaul loss. Hall is getting better and Creighton knocked off Nova, makes our Q1 wins look better
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Teams that should be in:
1,2,3,6,9,14
(And MU I believe is 14?)
MU is 14 without question
I Wonder if it will carry any weight that the sheer # of Q1 and Q2 games played, favors MU. They have played 18(will be 19 Sat) against Q1 and Q2 teams..when you look through all the teams ahead of them by RPI there arent that many that have played as many or more of those than MU has.
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They still look at quality of Q1 wins. That's what caused our drop out if the rankings despite winning in early February. Our best wins were the sweep of Seton Hall. When Hall started to tank... So did the perception of our resume. That's also why we are rising now despite the DePaul loss. Hall is getting better and Creighton knocked off Nova, makes our Q1 wins look better
Arg. I get what you're saying.
But if you go to a store and you get Grade A meat. And the next shelf also has GRADE A meat. It should be Grade A meat. (This is a terrible analogy. But ya know what I'm sayin ya know?)
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Please expand on the bolded. What else is needed??? The teams names? What conference? I mean should that matter if the RPI and SOS are solid as well?
This SHOULD be done blindly.
To expand. A Q1 is a Q1 win in the eyes of the committee. It shouldn't matter if it is SHU or Nova (although I get that t does... but if they made this a Quadrant thing, then stick with the quadrant thing. A Q1 win shouldn't mean more than another Q1 win.)
The quadrants make the assessment a little easier, but there's still a wide range of team represented in each quadrant. If team A has 3 road wins against RPI 58, 64, 75, there's a chance they might not have won a single game against a tournament team. If team B has 3 home wins against RPI 1, 7, 12, they have wins over some of the top seeds in the tournament. Both teams have 3 Q1 wins, but the actual quality of the opponents varies quite a bit. Just like the RPI calculations, the quadrant system isn't perfect and still may require a little extra digging to make the best comparisons.
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So really then, there is:
Q1a
Q1b
Q1c
Q1d
Q2a
Q2b
....
Not all Q1 wins are created equally, I get that kinda. But then don't call it a Q1 win.
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The quadrants make the assessment a little easier, but there's still a wide range of team represented in each quadrant. If team A has 3 road wins against RPI 58, 64, 75, there's a chance they might not have won a single game against a tournament team. If team B has 3 home wins against RPI 1, 7, 12, they have wins over some of the top seeds in the tournament. Both teams have 3 Q1 wins, but the actual quality of the opponents varies quite a bit. Just like the RPI calculations, the quadrant system isn't perfect and still may require a little extra digging to make the best comparisons.
Ok thanks. This really helped my brain.
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I've said it before, Dayton would be Icky though...Because if you lose, it's like you weren't really even in the tournament. You are technically, but to most the tournament starts Thursday. If you win, it's not big deal, but honestly, I'd almost rather they be in the NIT with a #1 or #2 seed and get to New York, then play a play in game of the NCAA's and they lose. I know most don't share that view, and I understand that, but that's just my personal preference.
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I've said it before, Dayton would be Icky though...Because if you lose, it's like you weren't really even in the tournament. You are technically, but to most the tournament starts Thursday. If you win, it's not big deal, but honestly, I'd almost rather they be in the NIT with a #1 or #2 seed and get to New York, then play a play in game of the NCAA's and they lose. I know most don't share that view, and I understand that, but that's just my personal preference.
Yeah I'd much rather be in Dayton.
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Yeah I'd much rather be in Dayton.
Would rather be in Dayton than the NIT. It still counts as the NCAAs.
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The quadrants make the assessment a little easier, but there's still a wide range of team represented in each quadrant. If team A has 3 road wins against RPI 58, 64, 75, there's a chance they might not have won a single game against a tournament team. If team B has 3 home wins against RPI 1, 7, 12, they have wins over some of the top seeds in the tournament. Both teams have 3 Q1 wins, but the actual quality of the opponents varies quite a bit. Just like the RPI calculations, the quadrant system isn't perfect and still may require a little extra digging to make the best comparisons.
Exactly, especially with the range for Q1 road wins. If you were to take every Q1 is equal, then winning at Rider, UCF, and Charleston would be the same as winning at UVA, Nova, and Xavier.
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I've said it before, Dayton would be Icky though...Because if you lose, it's like you weren't really even in the tournament. You are technically, but to most the tournament starts Thursday. If you win, it's not big deal, but honestly, I'd almost rather they be in the NIT with a #1 or #2 seed and get to New York, then play a play in game of the NCAA's and they lose. I know most don't share that view, and I understand that, but that's just my personal preference.
Ya.....no. Dayton is the NCAAs. I get what you're saying (I don't agree at all) in that to the casual fan its just a play in game. But it counts as a tourney appearance. To say you'd prefer NIT over a tourney appearance is nuts...especially with your repeated standards.
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Please expand on the bolded. What else is needed??? The teams names? What conference? I mean should that matter if the RPI and SOS are solid as well?
This SHOULD be done blindly.
To expand. A Q1 is a Q1 win in the eyes of the committee. It shouldn't matter if it is SHU or Nova (although I get that t does... but if they made this a Quadrant thing, then stick with the quadrant thing. A Q1 win shouldn't mean more than another Q1 win.)
This has been sufficiently answered, so I think you get it. The NCAA committee head even mentioned this in a recent interview (not all Q1 wins are equal). Thankfully our Q1 wins are pretty solid. We don't have any top 10 wins, but road wins against RPI ~top 40 teams are gold, and we have 3.
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BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose.
Here's what I got:
Last Four Byes
Team 3
Team 6
Team 9
Team 2
Last Four In
Team 12
Team 14
Team 1
Team 5
First Four Out
Team 8
Team 15
Team 4
Team 11
Next Four Out
Team 7
Team 10
Team 16
Team 13
EDIT: Just checked, J5, OD and I are almost exact. J5 as 8 in which is my first team out. OD has 11 in which is in my first four out. Both of them kept 5 out which I had as my very last team in the tournament. So far on the same page!
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I went and looked up the teams. I was very surprised about who Team 1 is. They are considered a lock almost everywhere and I had them playing in Dayton.
Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now:
1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0
Finally, I have no idea who team 16 is. Couldn't find anyone who matched their profile.
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This is great. Good stuff, Scoop.
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I went and looked up the teams. I was very surprised about who Team 1 is. They are considered a lock almost everywhere and had them playing in Dayton.
Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now: tamu, pm me who team one is
1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0
Finally, I have no idea who team 16 is. Couldn't find anyone who matched their profile.
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Ya.....no. Dayton is the NCAAs. I get what you're saying (I don't agree at all) in that to the casual fan its just a play in game. But it counts as a tourney appearance. To say you'd prefer NIT over a tourney appearance is nuts...especially with your repeated standards.
Does a win in Dayton pay the same tourney share as a round 2 win Thursday/Friday?
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Here's what I got:
Last Four Byes
Team 3
Team 6
Team 9
Team 2
Last Four In
Team 12
Team 14
Team 1
Team 5
First Four Out
Team 8
Team 15
Team 4
Team 11
Next Four Out
Team 7
Team 10
Team 16
Team 13
Didn't separate them, but had the same IN/OUT breakdown.
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Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now:
1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0
I think may have the wrong team for #10....quadrants haven't changed for that team since I posted. Maybe just using different sources.
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Here's what I would say based on just this information:
1. Solid metrics, 7 QW (tier 1 and 2), and decent SOS- IN
2. Best metrics in the group, strong SOS, light but OK on QW- IN
3. Solid. IN
4. Weak on the metrics and SOS. OUT, unless the Q1 wins are special.
5. Might depend on quality of Q1 wins, but IN
6. 11 quality wins and strong SOS. IN
7. Weak metrics and bad SOS. OUT. (will committee punish teams with weak OOC SOS?
8. Quality wins overcome middling metrics. IN
9.IN
10. mediocre metrics and SOS and a couple of bad losses. OUT
11. Obviously a mid major with low SOS. OUT, but close. Committee may want to reward a mid major.
12. IN
13. OUT and not that close.
14. I know who this is. OUT for now.
15. Know who this is too. OUT unless they win a few to give them injury consideration. but those bad losses are still an issue.
16. OUT.
So, my INs are 1,2,3,5,6,8,9, and 12 subject to change based on closer review of the wins and losses relative to other teams. I also like to see OOC SOS because the committee has shown favor in the past to bubble teams that "put themselves out there" in nonconference games.
4, 13, 15, and 16 are the weakest 4 to me.
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Here's what I would say based on just this information:
1. Solid metrics, 7 QW (tier 1 and 2), and decent SOS- IN
14. I know who this is. OUT for now.
I'm curious about your thinking on these two.
Team 1 has better metrics (42 vs 52)
Team 14 has the same number of QWs....except they have 4 Q1s/3Q2s and Team 1 has 3 Q1s/4Q2s
Team 14's SOS is much higher than Team 1
Is the 10 point difference in average metrics worth the 30 point difference in SOS and more Q1 wins for team 14?
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I went and looked up the teams. I was very surprised about who Team 1 is. They are considered a lock almost everywhere and I had them playing in Dayton.
Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now:
1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0
Finally, I have no idea who team 16 is. Couldn't find anyone who matched their profile.
It looks like it's Washington but I'm not positive.
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I'm curious about your thinking on these two.
Team 1 has better metrics (42 vs 52)
Team 14 has the same number of QWs....except they have 4 Q1s/3Q2s and Team 1 has 3 Q1s/4Q2s
Team 14's SOS is much higher than Team 1
Is the 10 point difference in average metrics worth the 30 point difference in SOS and more Q1 wins for team 14?
Its because he knows who the team is, and that is affecting his decision. He pretty much said that.
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I'm curious about your thinking on these two.
Team 1 has better metrics (42 vs 52)
Team 14 has the same number of QWs....except they have 4 Q1s/3Q2s and Team 1 has 3 Q1s/4Q2s
Team 14's SOS is much higher than Team 1
Is the 10 point difference in average metrics worth the 30 point difference in SOS and more Q1 wins for team 14?
Yes, as JJJJJ said I know who 14 is and know that they don't have any wins against top 20 teams.
I looked now and see who team 1 is, and they have 2 wins over top 5 teams, one on a neutral court and one on the road.
I'm reluctant to put too much weight on SOS by itself because that would seem to be baked to some extent into the metrics. When it comes to SOS I also would consider the OOC SOS.
Now that I know who both teams are and can look at their entire resumes I would still put 1 over 14. But, I could make an argument for 14 focusing on quality road wins. Number 1 has been slumping recently.
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Tonight's bubble action:
Providence (11 seed) @ Xavier
LSU (fringe; LSU win wouldn't be bad) @ South Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (fringe; Pitt is horrible and will not win)
Temple (fringe) @ UCONN
Texas A&M (7 seed) @ Georgia (fringe)
-I think I will be rooting for Georgia in this one. They are getting pretty close to a Q3 loss, and we don't want that. Also, Texas A&M is overseeded at as a 7 and a loss tonight gives them 10 SEC losses and still have to play Bama this weekend. Give me the Bulldogs.
Florida State (9 seed) @ Clemson
Syracuse (first four out) @ Boston College
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Tonight's bubble action:
Providence (11 seed) @ Xavier
LSU (fringe; LSU win wouldn't be bad) @ South Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (fringe; Pitt is horrible and will not win)
Temple (fringe) @ UCONN
Texas A&M (7 seed) @ Georgia (fringe)
-I think I will be rooting for Georgia in this one. They are getting pretty close to a Q3 loss, and we don't want that. Also, Texas A&M is overseeded at as a 7 and a loss tonight gives them 10 SEC losses and still have to play Bama this weekend. Give me the Bulldogs.
Florida State (9 seed) @ Clemson
Syracuse (first four out) @ Boston College
Honestly, Providence and Syracuse are the only games that matter tonight. Maybe Georgia due to its standing on our resume.
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Honestly, Providence and Syracuse are the only games that matter tonight. Maybe Georgia due to its standing on our resume.
Most likely, but definitely doesn't hurt for teams like A&M and Florida State to finish sub .500 in conference. A&M has a pile of Q1 wins, but man....they've got a legit shot to finish SEC at 7-11.
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Based on TAMU's last 8 in / first 8 out...here are the squads:
Last Four Byes
Team 3 - Texas
Team 6 - Alabama
Team 9 - Baylor
Team 2 - Louisville
Last Four In
Team 12 - USC
Team 14 - Marquette
Team 1 - Arizona State
Team 5 - Syracuse
First Four Out
Team 8 - Providence
Team 15 - Notre Dame
Team 4 - Utah
Team 11 - St. Bonnie
Next Four Out
Team 7 - Mississippi State
Team 10 - UCLA
Team 16 - Washington
Team 13 - Nebraska
These teams were based on Lunardi's last 8 in / first 8 out as of this morning.
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Tonight's bubble action:
Providence (11 seed) @ Xavier
LSU (fringe; LSU win wouldn't be bad) @ South Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (fringe; Pitt is horrible and will not win)
Temple (fringe) @ UCONN
Texas A&M (7 seed) @ Georgia (fringe)
-I think I will be rooting for Georgia in this one. They are getting pretty close to a Q3 loss, and we don't want that. Also, Texas A&M is overseeded at as a 7 and a loss tonight gives them 10 SEC losses and still have to play Bama this weekend. Give me the Bulldogs.
Florida State (9 seed) @ Clemson
Syracuse (first four out) @ Boston College
Providence lost
LSU lost
Temple lost
Notre Dame won
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Wow ... effen Pitt.
Leave the Big East and the program goes to crap. They've become the ACC's Rutgers!
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Devastating loss for Cuse (lost by 15 @BC). Great for us!
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Assuming we end up in 7 seed, we need butler to pull this one out to get @sju for resume purposes, correct?
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Assuming we end up in 7 seed, we need butler to pull this one out to get @sju for resume purposes, correct?
Yes
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Horrible loss for Butler. Up five with under :20 left and blew it. Last possession of OT was a total mess.
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So much for SJ being the 10 seed, they beat Butler in double OT.
Now we need to get out of the 7 seed to avoid DP.
Need a win and a SHU loss to Butler on Sat to get out of the 7.
Then we will be the 5 or 6 depending on how Providence/SJ turns out.
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Since a win vs DePaul wouldn’t move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?
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Since a win vs DePaul wouldn’t move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?
While a win against depaul definitely doesn’t do anything for you a win against nova on Thursday sure would, so you’d still have a shot to play your way in with one big win
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Since a win vs DePaul wouldn’t move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?
Not that improbable. Hall lose to Butler on Sat and we win.
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Since a win vs DePaul wouldn’t move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?
SH just needs to lose to Butler..or if PC and SH both lose i believe MU wins that tiebreaker..absolutely unreal that SJU beats Butler without Ponds. Butler is such a diff team on the road..except at MU. :-[
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I think you’re correct. Need butler to win at SH (sonogo is doubtful) and we’d overtaje them.
Not sure about prov given we split with them. Isn’t the tie breaker like a mini conference of all the 9-9 teams if you split h2h?
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I think you’re correct. Need butler to win at SH (sonogo is doubtful) and we’d overtaje them.
Not sure about prov given we split with them. Isn’t the tie breaker like a mini conference of all the 9-9 teams?
If PC, Hall and MU all end 9-9, MU gets 5 seed. PC plays SJU on Sat.
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If PC, Hall and MU all end 9-9, MU gets 5 seed. PC plays SJU on Sat.
Just win, baby!
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All we can do now is win the game ahead of us. If we lose, we're the seven, if we win, we might still be the seven seed. Just win the game and let the chips fall where they may.
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It is likely that if we end up with either the 5 or 6, our opponent would be Butler or Creighton. Give me Butler. Would be awfully tough to beat Creighton 2x in 5 days and 3x in a couple weeks.
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If PC, Hall and MU all end 9-9, MU gets 5 seed. PC plays SJU on Sat.
Thanks
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If PC, Hall and MU all end 9-9, MU gets 5 seed. PC plays SJU on Sat.
St John's won tonight, So I think the 7th seed plays DePaul.
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St John's won tonight, So I think the 7th seed plays DePaul.
Corrrct, which is why it’s importsnt to get out of the 7 slot.
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Beat Creighton & get to BET Semis= NCAA Lock
Beat Creighton & lose in BET Quarters= Squarely on the bubble
Beat Creighton & lose to DePaul= NIT
Lose to Creighton & get to BET final= NCAA Lock
Lose to Creighton & get to BET Semis= Squarely on the bubble
Lose to Creighton & lose in BET quarters or 1st round=NIT
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It is likely that if we end up with either the 5 or 6, our opponent would be Butler or Creighton. Give me Butler. Would be awfully tough to beat Creighton 2x in 5 days and 3x in a couple weeks.
If MU were to get the 5 seed I think Butler would win the tiebreaker with Creighton and get the 3 seed, leaving MU to play CU.
If MU gets the 6, it would mean a 3 way tie between CU, Butler, and PC at 10-8 and I'm too tired right now to try to figure out how that would be decided. But I think PC would win it because the 3 teams were all 2-2 against each other and PC's win over Xavier would give them the 3.
MU as a 6 playing PC as a 3 wouldn't be a bad deal.
Someone should have these all sorted out tomorrow.
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If MU were to get the 5 seed I think Butler would win the tiebreaker with Creighton and get the 3 seed, leaving MU to play CU.
If MU gets the 6, it would mean a 3 way tie between CU, Butler, and PC at 10-8 and I'm too tired right now to try to figure out how that would be decided. But I think PC would win it because the 3 teams were all 2-2 against each other and PC's win over Xavier would give them the 3.
MU as a 6 playing PC as a 3 wouldn't be a bad deal.
Someone should have these all sorted out tomorrow.
I just tried to play this out and and posted a poll on it - but it looks like PC gets the 3 seed with wins over both Xavier and Villanova (all three teams split in the miniconference) and then Butler and Creighton are tied all the way through who beat us - so Butler gets the 4 seed and Creighton the 5. It looks like we avoid Butler, which I would like.
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I just tried to play this out and and posted a poll on it - but it looks like PC gets the 3 seed with wins over both Xavier and Villanova (all three teams split in the miniconference) and then Butler and Creighton are tied all the way through who beat us - so Butler gets the 4 seed and Creighton the 5. It looks like we avoid Butler, which I would like.
I agree with the result. The way I understand the tiebreakers, in the three way tie with PC, Butler, and CU, PC’s win over Xavier would give it the 3 spot assuming Xavier beats DePaul and gets the 1 seed. Even if Xavier loses and Villanova gets the 1 seed, all 3 of those teams have wins over Nova and PCs win over #2 Xavier would decide it.
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Lots of good results for MU tonight! Even a couple teams I didn't include here lost, such as Temple (probably out) and Florida State (probably in).
Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
——————————————————-BracketMatrix Cut Line——————————————-
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Boise State has to play @SDSU and Wyoming.
Nebraska just has Penn St. BT Tournament: winner of Mich or Iowa
MARQUETTE
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, TA&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!
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Would be awfully tough to beat Creighton 2x in 5 days and 3x in a couple weeks.
Why?
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Butler is a really tough match up for us, I'd rather play Creighton again. Looking forward to Saturdays last game at home, we need to bring it.
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Don’t look now, but with Georgia’s loss, they have now moved into a Q3 loss giving us 2 in that category. Going to hurt us a bit. Need them to win a game or two at the end.
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Don’t look now, but with Georgia’s loss, they have now moved into a Q3 loss giving us 2 in that category. Going to hurt us a bit. Need them to win a game or two at the end.
A win this weekend, @TENN, or a win in the first round of the SEC tourney, right now MISSOU, would pretty much lock them into a Q2 loss. Need to get one.
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A win this weekend, @TENN, or a win in the first round of the SEC tourney, right now MISSOU, would pretty much lock them into a Q2 loss. Need to get one.
@Tenn is their last game before the SEC tourney
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@Tenn is their last game before the SEC tourney
Was that not clear?
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It is likely that if we end up with either the 5 or 6, our opponent would be Butler or Creighton. Give me Butler. Would be awfully tough to beat Creighton 2x in 5 days and 3x in a couple weeks.
:o
I think I'd rather take the team that we've beaten twice (hypothetically) as opposed to the one that has pretty much manhandled us for 2 full games.
Just win baby
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Did Lunardi just release a new bracket that has no movement from his one yesterday?
1) How is no movement possible with the losses by bubble teams yesterday?
2) If there really was no movement, why post a new bracket?
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2) If there really was no movement, why post a new bracket?
Possibly to show that yesterday's outcomes changed nothing.
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Did Lunardi just release a new bracket that has no movement from his one yesterday?
1) How is no movement possible with the losses by bubble teams yesterday?
2) If there really was no movement, why post a new bracket?
I think the purpose was to prove he is a lazy SOB.
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Possibly to show that yesterday's outcomes changed nothing.
Cuse losing by 15 to BC changes a lot for them.
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Why?
Maybe its cliche, but beating a team you're pretty much of par with 3/3 time is quite a challenge. Sh*t, beating them 2/2 times is going to be quite a challenge.
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Don’t look now, but with Georgia’s loss, they have now moved into a Q3 loss giving us 2 in that category. Going to hurt us a bit. Need them to win a game or two at the end.
Kinda figured that may be the case with a loss last night. So many opportunities to win that game last night...just awful execution.
Cuse losing by 15 to BC changes a lot for them.
Yah, surprised we didn't see Cuse drop more.
:o
I think I'd rather take the team that we've beaten twice (hypothetically) as opposed to the one that has pretty much manhandled us for 2 full games.
Just win baby
Just a gut feeling. I don't particularly want to play Creighton 2x in 5 days and needing a win in both.
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Food for thought from Bart Torvik in response to someone on Twitter:
"Marquette's fate may well depend on how impressive the committee thinks that road win is over Creighton is. That the chair is Creighton's AD could be a good thing."
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Maybe its cliche, but beating a team you're pretty much of par with 3/3 time is quite a challenge. Sh*t, beating them 2/2 times is going to be quite a challenge.
It’s just not true.
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the bracketmatrix has Syracuse, UCLA, Washington and Marquette as the first 4 out.
Providence, Louisville, Texas and Baylor as the last 4 in.
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They're on the bubble, but with the quality of their Q1 wins, is Providence actually in any trouble? I haven't looked at the team sheet/ advanced numbers much, but how many bubble teams have beaten 2 potential 1 seeds?
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They're on the bubble, but with the quality of their Q1 wins, is Providence actually in any trouble? I haven't looked at the team sheet/ advanced numbers much, but how many bubble teams have beaten 2 potential 1 seeds?
Providence is a weird case. The have two VERY good wins against Nova and X, both at home. They also have three VERY bad losses against Minnesota (at home), UMass, and DePaul (at home).
I wonder how much the committee will weigh their wins/losses based on the personnel available in each game. They beat Nova sans Phil Booth, so that might cheapen the win a little. But they also were beat by UMass when Diallo was hurt and Cartwright was playing hurt, so that might soften the blow a bit. They also lost to Minnesota when they were at full strength before the suspension of Lynch, injuries to McBrayer, and injuries to Coffey. So maybe they don't penalize them as much for that loss.
The other thing working against Providence is their KenPom. Their RPI looks nice at 42 but their KenPom is a rough 72. If KenPom truly is being used more by the committee....it could be a problem for them.
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Providence is a weird case. The have two VERY good wins against Nova and X, both at home. They also have three VERY bad losses against Minnesota (at home), UMass, and DePaul (at home).
I wonder how much the committee will weigh their wins/losses based on the personnel available in each game. They beat Nova sans Phil Booth, so that might cheapen the win a little. But they also were beat by UMass when Diallo was hurt and Cartwright was playing hurt, so that might soften the blow a bit. They also lost to Minnesota when they were at full strength before the suspension of Lynch, injuries to McBrayer, and injuries to Coffey. So maybe they don't penalize them as much for that loss.
The other thing working against Providence is their KenPom. Their RPI looks nice at 42 but their KenPom is a rough 72. If KenPom truly is being used more by the committee....it could be a problem for them.
I think PC is pretty safe. I think they'll get in even with a loss vs. SJU on Saturday. But I also think MU's resume is slightly superior based on the blind resume test. As Brew mentioned, they have better wins, but they have 2 pretty bad losses. Same conference record. Analytic rankings aren't great.
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Not much in the way of true bubble action tonight:
Northwestern @ Penn State (fringe)
Virginia @ Louisville (last four in)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ Middle Tennessee (11 seed; probably not 100% safe without AQ, but probably not the game we want them to lose)
NC State (9 seed) @ Georgia Tech
Cal @ Arizona State (9 seed)
Oregon State @ Washington (first four out)
Unfortunately, most of the teams the bubbly teams are playing tonight are awful. I wouldn't expect losses except for Louisville and Western Kentucky.
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I think we can start adding games including potential bracketbusters:
Iowa vs. Michigan (I doubt Iowa goes all the way but I want as many locks in the next round as possible to knock off the Wisconsins, Indianas, and Nebraskas of the world)
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I think we can start adding games including potential bracketbusters:
Iowa vs. Michigan (I doubt Iowa goes all the way but I want as many locks in the next round as possible to knock off the Wisconsins, Indianas, and Nebraskas of the world)
Ya know...I'm rooting for Iowa. Michigan is in regardless, and if Iowa wins it gives Nebraska yet another sh*t opponent before getting pounded by Michigan State. Removes the chance to add a good win to their resume that sorely lacks them.
Iowa isn't winning the B10 tournament.
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Ya know...I'm rooting for Iowa. Michigan is in regardless, and if Iowa wins it gives Nebraska yet another sh*t opponent before getting pounded by Michigan State. Removes the chance to add a good win to their resume that sorely lacks them.
Iowa isn't winning the B10 tournament.
Yep. We should be rooting for Iowa.
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Ya know...I'm rooting for Iowa. Michigan is in regardless, and if Iowa wins it gives Nebraska yet another sh*t opponent before getting pounded by Michigan State. Removes the chance to add a good win to their resume that sorely lacks them.
Iowa isn't winning the B10 tournament.
No they aren't winning the B1G tourney....and they probably aren't beating Nebraska either. Which puts the Huskers one upset away from the B1G championship game....assuming Michigan State doesn't crap the bed against Wisconsin.
At this point, I want all the locks just to take care of business. Don't need the bubble getting any smaller than it has to. Though I see what your saying about sabotaging Nebraka's resume with another matchup against Iowa.
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No they aren't winning the B1G tourney....and they probably aren't beating Nebraska either. Which puts the Huskers one upset away from the B1G championship game....assuming Michigan State doesn't crap the bed against Wisconsin.
At this point, I want all the locks just to take care of business. Don't need the bubble getting any smaller than it has to. Though I see what your saying about sabotaging Nebraka's resume with another matchup against Iowa.
Yep, just two different routes to the same goal. Doubt Iowa wins this game anyhow...they are bad.
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I don't want Wisconsin to upset Michigan St and luck into a semi final against Iowa. Even Nebraska isn't daunting. Keep Michigan alive. Had Wisconsin lost today I wouldn't mind.
It'd be just Wisconsin's luck to get an Iowa and Penn St/Indiana draw. Looks like Michigan is off to a good start to the second half though.
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I don't want Wisconsin to upset Michigan St and luck into a semi final against Iowa. Even Nebraska isn't daunting. Keep Michigan alive. Had Wisconsin lost today I wouldn't mind.
It'd be just Wisconsin's luck to get an Iowa and Penn St/Indiana draw. Looks like Michigan is off to a good start to the second half though.
Unless somehow the Wisco win becomes a Q1 win (which I am pretty sure it won't)...im good if they get crushed tomorrow! The only thing they can do is hurt us at this point by stealing a bid.
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Michigan is not good.
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Michigan is not good.
They can be, they've shot terribly today though. Fun last minute or two.
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They can be, they've shot terribly today though. Fun last minute or two.
Some 11 or 12 seed is going to happy with their draw.
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Michigan is not good.
Michigan is better when they make more than 3 for 19 3 pointers and when Wagner and MAAR don’t get fouled out in 15 minutes.
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On Providence...this is interesting..Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.
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On Providence...this is interesting..Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.
Bracket Matrix has PC in Dayton. They could easily fall out if they lose the next couple.
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Louisville is about 11 minutes from just about locking up a bid.....up 13 on the Cavs.
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NC State just took a bad loss against Georgia Tech
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Nc State still safe by plenty and Louisville locked up a bid. WKU is done barring an autobid.
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Epic choke by Louisville.......lol
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Epic choke by Louisville.......lol
Wow. I just assumed haha. That was absurd
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Epic choke by Louisville.......lol
You aren't kidding...WOW lol
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Couldn't happen to a nicer program........ :)
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You aren't kidding...WOW lol
Couldn't have happened to a more deserving program.
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Probably the most brutal, heartbreaking loss I've ever witnessed
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Probably the most brutal, heartbreaking loss I've ever witnessed
All Adel had to do was throw it down the court, and as soon as someone touches it the game is over..instead he travels inbounding it, then loses his guy and let's him shoot(and make the game winning 3). Just classic.
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I still can’t believe that just happened.
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All Adel had to do was throw it down the court, and as soon as someone touches it the game is over..instead he travels inbounding it, then loses his guy and let's him shoot(and make the game winning 3). Just classic.
Even before that, the guy fouling Jerome on the 3 point shot up 4 with .9 seconds left.
Then Virginia got a break on the intentionally missed FT that Louisville rebounded. The Virginia guy went crashing the boards early, causing the whistle and the inbound pass instead of the game just ending with the rebound.
Plus the game losing banked-in 3 pointer.
So many things Louisville fans have to be sick about tonight.
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Oregon goes down to Washington State. Safe to assume they are out of NCAA contention now.
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Holy crapola I had assumed Louisville won! What a crazy finish! So does it help them at all that they took the #1 team wire-to-wire?
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Holy crapola I had assumed Louisville won! What a crazy finish! So does it help them at all that they took the #1 team wire-to-wire?
We took Villanova down to the wire this year, and Xavier. The committee doesn't care about almost.
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On Providence...this is interesting..Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.
I'm pretty sure the Friars only have 3 Quad 4 losses but your point still stands. The have two wins better than almost any other bubble team.....and three worse losses than almost any other bubble team.
They also have the worst KenPom rating of any team currently "in the tournmanet" and the 2nd worst of any team currently on the bubble (Washington's is 94).
Personally, I don't think their resume is worthy....However, I recognize that they had to deal with a lot of injuries and might be a good enough team to be at large worthy...though that argument would hold better if they weren't 2-4 over the last 6....though one of those two wins was a helluva win....
As you can tell from all the elipses....Providence is just an interesting case.
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Couldn't have happened to a more deserving program.
Just heard on ESPN:
Louisville continues to vacate wins.
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I just ran RPI forecast on Wisconsin and even if they won the Big Ten Tournament beating the highest possible seed at every step their rpi would only improve to 77. Of course that could be a little off and they could be a couple spots higher to make it a quadrant 1 win for us even in that unlikely scenario. However obviously still wouldn't be worth it since they be stealing a spot.
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Probably the most brutal, heartbreaking loss I've ever witnessed
Watching that sequence of events brought back dark memories from January 2015 when a certain small market NFL team fell victim to a similarly epic series of events in the NFC championship game that ultimately doomed their season as well.
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http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/TT.html (http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/TT.html)
This guy only has 4 Big East teams in the tournament. lol.
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http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/TT.html (http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/TT.html)
This guy only has 4 Big East teams in the tournament. lol.
He didn't even put Butler in his next four out
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He didn't even put Butler in his next four out
Yah...or PC, or MU. Crazy talk.
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Stewart Mandel and Bracketville both have Marquette in their first four out. Historically 2 of the best projections.
For the link you posted, he doesn't list a first four out. He just lists last four in and others considered in no particular order. Butler, PC and MU are all on that list of 11 teams.
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ESPN Bubble Watch:
Bubble Watch hesitates to use the term "one-game season," but the importance of Marquette's season finale at home against Creighton is difficult to overstate. If the Golden Eagles win, they're still alive for an at-large bid (though it will be no sure thing). Lose, and those bid probabilities drop significantly.
They've already beaten the Bluejays in Omaha, and they also boast a season sweep of Seton Hall. Still, to get those boasts heard where they will matter, one last regular-season win will likely be required.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030218/final-tests-champ-week
(http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030218/final-tests-champ-week)
Pretty encouraging language.
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Stewart Mandel and Bracketville both have Marquette in their first four out. Historically 2 of the best projections.
For the link you posted, he doesn't list a first four out. He just lists last four in and others considered in no particular order. Butler, PC and MU are all on that list of 11 teams.
My bad, I read last four in as first four out
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For all the angst over the DePaul game - most of it well-deserved - the real killer IMHO was not beating Providence on Natl MU Day. Win that game and we're easily higher than Prov in the pecking order, and we'd have been in for sure by beating Creighton tomorrow. Oh well.
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ESPN Bubble Watch:
Bubble Watch hesitates to use the term "one-game season," but the importance of Marquette's season finale at home against Creighton is difficult to overstate. If the Golden Eagles win, they're still alive for an at-large bid (though it will be no sure thing). Lose, and those bid probabilities drop significantly.
They've already beaten the Bluejays in Omaha, and they also boast a season sweep of Seton Hall. Still, to get those boasts heard where they will matter, one last regular-season win will likely be required.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030218/final-tests-champ-week
(http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030218/final-tests-champ-week)
Pretty encouraging language.
I've actually wondered if we can lose our season finale and still make it. I think the one thing our resume lacks is a true "signature" win. Our computer numbers are good. Our Q1 win total is good. Our bad losses are minimal. And our SOS is great. What if we lost to Creighton but then beat DePaul and then beat Villanova? All of the sudden we have a signature win. Does that look better then beating Creighton, beating DePaul, and losing to Nova? On paper it does. But I wonder if beating Nova in the BET would be less impactful because the committee doesn't weight conference tournament games as heavily.
Either way, let's just win tomorrow
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For all the angst over the DePaul game - most of it well-deserved - the real killer IMHO was not beating Providence on Natl MU Day. Win that game and we're easily higher than Prov in the pecking order, and we'd have been in for sure by beating Creighton tomorrow. Oh well.
Those are the two that hurt. Win both and MU would be a lock.
Georgia would be 3rd. Either home game against Xavier & Nova next. It also would have been nice if we had a Michigan win instead of LSU (but the LSU win is still better than having a loss to Michigan).
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My bad, I read last four in as first four out
Yah, same!
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The ones that would be most impactful were the X and Nova games. Either one would have put us in the tournament at this point
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I've actually wondered if we can lose our season finale and still make it. I think the one thing our resume lacks is a true "signature" win. Our computer numbers are good. Our Q1 win total is good. Our bad losses are minimal. And our SOS is great. What if we lost to Creighton but then beat DePaul and then beat Villanova? All of the sudden we have a signature win. Does that look better then beating Creighton, beating DePaul, and losing to Nova? On paper it does. But I wonder if beating Nova in the BET would be less impactful because the committee doesn't weight conference tournament games as heavily.
Either way, let's just win tomorrow
Here's what would suck about losing to Creighton: 7 home losses.
#justwinbaby
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Those are the two that hurt. Win both and MU would be a lock.
Georgia would be 3rd. Either home game against Xavier & Nova next. It also would have been nice if we had a Michigan win instead of LSU (but the LSU win is still better than having a loss to Michigan).
Yeah, LH, there's plenty of room for what-iffin'!
Screw it ... let's win tomorrow, take at least one game at MSG and see what happens!
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Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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I've actually wondered if we can lose our season finale and still make it. I think the one thing our resume lacks is a true "signature" win. Our computer numbers are good. Our Q1 win total is good. Our bad losses are minimal. And our SOS is great. What if we lost to Creighton but then beat DePaul and then beat Villanova? All of the sudden we have a signature win. Does that look better then beating Creighton, beating DePaul, and losing to Nova? On paper it does. But I wonder if beating Nova in the BET would be less impactful because the committee doesn't weight conference tournament games as heavily.
Either way, let's just win tomorrow
Yep. There is probably still an avenue to Dayton with a loss tomorrow, but it would be a very difficult road.
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Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
2nd team out. 91% chance a team with our profile would have gotten a bid in past years. So yeah, strong bubble. Really weak after the first four teams out or so
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The upper half of the bracket is weak. The bottom has picked up enough wins that the bubble has been become bloated. The last eight it in, first eight out have very similar profiles. The differences are so slight, it will come down what the committee values most.
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Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
That's an interesting system. I know they've been historically accurate but I think they overestimate some of the mid major teams. Houston as a 4 seed? Middle Tennessee State as an 8 seed? Loyola (IL) as an at large...and not even in Dayton? Temple in but Texas out?
I do think they correctly put AZ State behind us on the bubble. They got ridiculously hot in the non conference season but have been middle of the pack in a very weak Pac 12.
If I'm reading his study correctly, he says there are 10 teams competing for 6 spots and we're currently on the outside looking in. And that's assuming there are no bracket busters
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2nd team out. 91% chance a team with our profile would have gotten a bid in past years. So yeah, strong bubble. Really weak after the first four teams out or so
Doesn't that 91% mean that's their chance of getting a bid THIS year?? I'm pretty sure it does.
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Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I think it's less of a strong bubble and more a difficulty of distinguishing between teams. When that top-16 list came out, we heard about how Oklahoma didn't belong and Rhode Island got robbed. Now neither of those two look all that great. On blind resumes, it's tough to tell the difference between a NCAA 7/8 seed and a NIT 1/2 seed. The field isn't strong, but it has a ton of parity.
Don't get me wrong, I don't believe the "no great teams" mantra we've been fed. There are some great teams at the top, just not the names the ESPN types want at the top. But after the top 2-3 seed lines, the distinctions really blur.
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That's an interesting system. I know they've been historically accurate but I think they overestimate some of the mid major teams. Houston as a 4 seed? Middle Tennessee State as an 8 seed? Loyola (IL) as an at large...and not even in Dayton?
I do think they correctly put AZ State behind us on the bubble. They got ridiculously hot in the non conference season but have been middle of the pack in a very weak Pac 12
It's going to be tough to leave out a team with a neutral court win over X and a road win at Kansas. But I agree, I don't think ASU necessarily deserves a bid. The loss to Oregon State last week helps....they don't have any truly dreadful losses other than that. I think they're in, but another loss to Stanford this weekend would make it pretty interesting.
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Doesn't that 91% mean that's their chance of getting a bid THIS year?? I'm pretty sure it does.
No it means in past years 91% of teams with a similar profile have gotten in......
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That's an interesting system. I know they've been historically accurate but I think they overestimate some of the mid major teams. Houston as a 4 seed? Middle Tennessee State as an 8 seed? Loyola (IL) as an at large...and not even in Dayton? Temple in but Texas out?
I do think they correctly put AZ State behind us on the bubble. They got ridiculously hot in the non conference season but have been middle of the pack in a very weak Pac 12.
If I'm reading his study correctly, he says there are 10 teams competing for 6 spots and we're currently on the outside looking in. And that's assuming there are no bracket busters
System is not meant to be used for seeding I don't think although the teams at the top will look similar to the top seeds i'm sure. Houston isn't likely to be a 4 seed as you said.....
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The Badgers are getting too close for my comfort to becoming a serious bid stealer threat. If they hold on to their second half lead over MSU they would be looking at a semifinal game against Michigan or Nebraska, two teams they could definitely beat.
This prospect is so appalling to me that I’ve sunk to the level of rooting for MSU to come back and win.
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The Badgers are getting too close for my comfort to becoming a serious bid stealer threat. If they hold on to their second half lead over MSU they would be looking at a semifinal game against Michigan or Nebraska, two teams they could definitely beat.
This prospect is so appalling to me that I’ve sunk to the level of rooting for MSU to come back and win.
Wisconsin is not winning the B10 tourney.
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Wisconsin is not winning the B10 tourney.
Now I agree. But I have to shower after pulling for MSU
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Now I agree. But I have to shower after pulling for MSU
What's wrong with MSU?
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This a good preview of the major bubble games this weekend (with other big games included):
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/03/02/weekend-picks-predictions-duke-north-carolina-rivalry-conference-championships
Read it alongside the writer's projections, especially the last four in/out: https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/03/01/ncaa-tournament-bracket-projections-virginia-villanova-kansas-xavier
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What's wrong with MSU?
I heard they had a doctor who liked the bad touch
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I heard they had a doctor who liked the bad touch
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PortlyKaleidoscopicIndri-max-1mb.gif)
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Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
This is excellent. One may ask why the pure analytical formulas here give Marquette a 92% chance of being selected, yet only 4 of 70 bracket matrix selections pick Marquette (seemingly 6% chance).
I believe the answer is in Nate Silver's observation of "herding" of polls. No one wants to be embarrassed by a pick that is way off. Nate observes throughout elections polls are spread out giving a good balance of methodologies. However he notes in the closing days poll results mysteriously all seem to get closer and closer to the others in their final result (if you've never been in the back room of polling operations, trust me you can get your new results closer to the average by tweaking assumptions).
Based on Marquettes resume as reflected is espns SOR and this link, there is no way 66 of 70 brackets would leave Marquette off.
The herding occurs because everyone looks at Lunardi's bracket and next 8 out and palm's next four out, and they don't even consider teams they don't see. They don't have time to monitor all 351 teams, so the herd follows the brackets they see on TV every day and tweak those teams. With 70 brackets you'd expect some difference of opinion, but in fact all except 6 teams are either in more than 60 of 70 brackets or fewer than 10. The only 6 in between (3 in and 3 out) are:
Alabama 57
K-state 55
Texas 44
Cutoff
UCLA 25
Wash 15
Syracuse 13
Hopefully a win vs Creighton + 1 in the big east actually gives us a good shot, but we will see.
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The herding occurs because everyone looks at Lunardi's bracket and next 8 out and palm's next four out, and they don't even consider teams they don't see. They don't have time to monitor all 351 teams, so the herd follows the brackets they see on TV every day and tweak those teams.
That's why I prefer to look at the actual resumes. Sites like Bracket Matrix become a bit of an echo chamber, and everyone focuses on those 4-5 key brackets and don't look at the entirety. When you put our resume next to the teams that perception has as "on the bubble", we are right there and have been for weeks. The Selection Committee won't have Lunardi and Palm's brackets in front of them and say "well, this is the pool of 72 teams we have to pick from", they will look at all the teams and all the resumes.
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That's why I prefer to look at the actual resumes. Sites like Bracket Matrix become a bit of an echo chamber, and everyone focuses on those 4-5 key brackets and don't look at the entirety. When you put our resume next to the teams that perception has as "on the bubble", we are right there and have been for weeks. The Selection Committee won't have Lunardi and Palm's brackets in front of them and say "well, this is the pool of 72 teams we have to pick from", they will look at all the teams and all the resumes.
Exactly! Your term "echo chamber" is probably better than my term "herding," but we are describing the same thing.
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Nebraska down 15 in the first half. Some say that they can still get an at large with a loss. How is that possible with both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix having them out before today?
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This is excellent. One may ask why the pure analytical formulas here give Marquette a 92% chance of being selected, yet only 4 of 70 bracket matrix selections pick Marquette (seemingly 6% chance).
I believe the answer is in Nate Silver's observation of "herding" of polls. No one wants to be embarrassed by a pick that is way off. Nate observes throughout elections polls are spread out giving a good balance of methodologies. However he notes in the closing days poll results mysteriously all seem to get closer and closer to the others in their final result (if you've never been in the back room of polling operations, trust me you can get your new results closer to the average by tweaking assumptions).
Based on Marquettes resume as reflected is espns SOR and this link, there is no way 66 of 70 brackets would leave Marquette off.
The herding occurs because everyone looks at Lunardi's bracket and next 8 out and palm's next four out, and they don't even consider teams they don't see. They don't have time to monitor all 351 teams, so the herd follows the brackets they see on TV every day and tweak those teams. With 70 brackets you'd expect some difference of opinion, but in fact all except 6 teams are either in more than 60 of 70 brackets or fewer than 10. The only 6 in between (3 in and 3 out) are:
Alabama 57
K-state 55
Texas 44
Cutoff
UCLA 25
Wash 15
Syracuse 13
Hopefully a win vs Creighton + 1 in the big east actually gives us a good shot, but we will see.
Again not to nitpick but dance Card doesn't say MU has a 92% chance of being selected. It says profiles like Marquette's have been selected 92% of the time in the past. This year, as you can see, there are more teams deemed worthy of selection then in the past......which means a few are going to be left out.
Let's win a couple more and see where it leaves us.
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Nebraska down 15 in the first half. Some say that they can still get an at large with a loss. How is that possible with both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix having them out before today?
Poor end to the half by Michigan lets Nebraska back within 10 at halftime.
I can’t see any way that Nebraska gets in with a loss today. No more chances to improve their already weak resume. I think they need to win today and beat MSU to get in. People who think Nebraska should get in are looking at their 13-5 conference record without realizing how weak their schedule has been, including only playing each of the top 4 teams in the questionable B10 once each.
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Poor end to the half by Michigan lets Nebraska back within 10 at halftime.
I can’t see any way that Nebraska gets in with a loss today. No more chances to improve their already weak resume. I think they need to win today and beat MSU to get in. People who think Nebraska should get in are looking at their 13-5 conference record without realizing how weak their schedule has been, including only playing each of the top 4 teams in the questionable B10 once each.
Good point...and good example of why we should be skeptical of "good records". There are a few 20s-n teams that will not and should not make it. I personally didnt realize they played the top 4 only once.
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Michigan up 21 with 6 minutes left
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Michigan up 21 with 6 minutes left
Talk about a three headed monster. Michigan has three guys with 16+ points, one guy with 8 points, six other guys with a combined 2 points.
Nebraska has gotten to the line 23 times and hit 20 of them compared to 4/6 for Michigan....too bad they are shooting 28% from the floor :o
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Talk about a three headed monster. Michigan has three guys with 16+ points, one guy with 8 points, six other guys with a combined 2 points.
Interestingly, their 2nd leading scorer Charles Matthews ('member him?), has 0.
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Nebraska has gotten to the line 23 times and hit 20 of them compared to 4/6 for Michigan....too bad they are shooting 28% from the floor :o
To add to this weirdness....despite Nebraska getting to the line nearly 4x the amount that Michigan has....they have 2 starters with 4 fouls each....and Michigan doesn't have anyone with more than 3 ?-(
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I’m scratching Nebraska off my bubble list. If they get in it will mean I have no idea what the Selection Committee values.
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Talk about a three headed monster. Michigan has three guys with 16+ points, one guy with 8 points, six other guys with a combined 2 points.
Nebraska has gotten to the line 23 times and hit 20 of them compared to 4/6 for Michigan....too bad they are shooting 28% from the floor :o
In addition to Mathews not scoring until the final minutes, their two freshmen who have been solid contributors (Poole and Livers) have been invisible in the tournament.
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Talk about a three headed monster. Michigan has three guys with 16+ points, one guy with 8 points, six other guys with a combined 2 points.
Nebraska has gotten to the line 23 times and hit 20 of them compared to 4/6 for Michigan....too bad they are shooting 28% from the floor :o
Interesting game indeed. Total dominance by Michigan. Regarding FT disparity: Imagine if we could have gotten to the line 23 times against DePaul and hit 20 - we'd have been able to win going away despite our paltry 40% shooting from the field.
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Interesting game indeed. Total dominance by Michigan. Regarding FT disparity: Imagine if we could have gotten to the line 23 times against DePaul and hit 20 - we'd have been able to win going away despite our paltry 40% shooting from the field.
Yep, you found a new John Dawson alright
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I’m scratching Nebraska off my bubble list. If they get in it will mean I have no idea what the Selection Committee values.
Agreed. If Nebraska makes it I'm calling collusion
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As far as Nebraska goes, one way or another, it's going to be historical...no B10 team has ever missed the tourney with a 13-5 conference record. On the other hand, no team has ever made the tourney with a resume as poor as theirs either.
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Need Georgia to win a few more games. Their RPI has fallen below 75 which gives us a second Group 3 loss along with DePaul.
Those two losses are killing us.
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Yep, you found a new John Dawson alright
Your a funny dude TAMU. Seems you made it an issue to comment on the free throw stats in the Nebraska/Michigan game. Didn't see me post anything about it, until you chose to make it an issue. See how that works?
I look forward to tomorrows game to see what Wojo chooses to do. Should be quite interesting to see how things play out. Think Wojo goes M2M with Rowsey/Howard playing big minutes together?
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Need Georgia to win a few more games. Their RPI has fallen below 75 which gives us a second Group 3 loss along with DePaul.
Those two losses are killing us.
I feel like if you turn any of our Ls into Ws we'd be in.
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Agreed. If Nebraska makes it I'm calling collusion
If we are left out of the tournament, I will not join the chorus of whiners (either here or elsewhere) who say we "deserved" it over this team or that team.
Beat DePaul. Beat Georgia. Beat Providence. Win 2 of those 3 and we're already in. Heck, beat DePaul and we might be in.
Wojo and our ladz controlled their own destiny.
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If we are left out of the tournament, I will not join the chorus of whiners (either here or elsewhere) who say we "deserved" it over this team or that team.
Beat DePaul. Beat Georgia. Beat Providence. Win 2 of those 3 and we're already in. Heck, beat DePaul and we might be in.
Wojo and our ladz controlled their own destiny.
+1000 This is it exactly...They had it there for the taking, and failed to cease the opportunity(to this point anyway).
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Frickin Ohio State. Garbage possessions on O and D by the Buckeyes keeps PSU alive.
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Frickin Ohio State. Garbage possessions on O and D by the Buckeyes keeps PSU alive.
They're further from the bubble than Nebraska was. I still think they'd need to win tomorrow to get in. Go Purdue
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With URI out now A10 is definitely getting another team in. Hopefully St Bonies so they don’t have a chance at 3 bids.
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With URI out now A10 is definitely getting another team in. Hopefully St Bonies so they don’t have a chance at 3 bids.
That was regular season. Tourney hasn't started.
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They're further from the bubble than Nebraska was. I still think they'd need to win tomorrow to get in. Go Purdue
Hence they're still alive. A loss today would have closed the book.
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That was regular season. Tourney hasn't started.
Good Lord, I’m an idiot. Thank you. Dealing with two year old and 40 week pregnant wife while watching b10 tourney and it threw me off. Thank you for slapping me in the face - I needed it.
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Good Lord, I’m an idiot. Thank you. Dealing with two year old and 40 week pregnant wife while watching b10 tourney and it threw me off. Thank you for slapping me in the face - I needed it.
It was a good game on CBSSN.
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+1000 This is it exactly...They had it there for the taking, and failed to cease the opportunity(to this point anyway).
See, guru, we do agree on things sometimes.
The difference is that I don't go into days-long funks about it.
It's basketball, entertainment, escapism, fun. Life is good, baby!
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Your a funny dude TAMU. Seems you made it an issue to comment on the free throw stats in the Nebraska/Michigan game. Didn't see me post anything about it, until you chose to make it an issue. See how that works?
I look forward to tomorrows game to see what Wojo chooses to do. Should be quite interesting to see how things play out. Think Wojo goes M2M with Rowsey/Howard playing big minutes together?
Dear God man, I was commenting on a random stat in a B1G tournament game, namely Nebraska's terrible shooting from the floor. And you turned it to your new John Dawson
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
traveling all day so sorry if someone else posted. The new Bracket Matrix includes more brackets and improves us to third team out, and Lunardi finally has us back at least in the next four out (7th team out). Progress - now we get back to actually needing to beat Creighton. I am here in MKE.
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*whom*
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Teams to Cheer for today
West Virginia over Texas
St.Johns over Providence
Clemson over Syracuse
NC State over Louisville
Purdue over Penn St.
Oregon over Washington
Colorado over Utah
USC over UCLA
Texas A&M Over Alabama
LSU over Mississippi St.
Kansas st over Baylor ( whoever wins we hope loses first round of the big 12 tourny) I feel the loser is out barring a conference tournament championship
Obviously a lot of games that impact us today. I see alot of them falling our way. Some of these teams are behind up but i bolded the games for teams that should be ahead of us right now.
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Also as a side note its a complete joke that the Big12 is on the verge of landing 80% of its teams into the tournament with a conference like they have. I would not be surprised given there recent horrible showings if Kansas was the only team left from the big12 after the first weekend. I remember one year when two 14 seeds beat to 3 seeds from the big12.
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
traveling all day so sorry if someone else posted. The new Bracket Matrix includes more brackets and improves us to third team out, and Lunardi finally has us back at least in the next four out (7th team out). Progress - now we get back to actually needing to beat Creighton. I am here in MKE.
What's interesting is the relative unanimity between teams that are in and teams that are out. Look at the 12-seeds (appears to be the at-large cut line) and the first four out -- it's a wide gap! So for all the talk about all the different bubble teams competing for a spot, there's a surprisingly firm line between in and out this year.
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Also as a side note its a complete joke that the Big12 is on the verge of landing 80% of its teams into the tournament with a conference like they have. I would not be surprised given there recent horrible showings if Kansas was the only team left from the big12 after the first weekend. I remember one year when two 14 seeds beat to 3 seeds from the big12.
It seems like leagues that get a ton of teams in the tournament always flame out. The year the Big East got 11, the only teams to make the Sweet 16 were tied for 9th and both won Big East games in the round of 32, so somebody had to win. Of course, one of them was UConn who won the championship. The other was us.
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Teams to Cheer for today
West Virginia over Texas WVU -5.0
St.Johns over Providence Prov - 5
Clemson over Syracuse Cuse - 1.5
NC State over Louisville NCST - 2.5
Purdue over Penn St. Line not out yet, but Pur will be favored
Oregon over Washington Ore -1.5
Colorado over Utah Utah -9.0
USC over UCLA USC -5.5
Texas A&M Over Alabama TAMU -6.0
LSU over Mississippi St. LSU -2.5
Kansas st over Baylor ( whoever wins we hope loses first round of the big 12 tourny) I feel the loser is out barring a conference tournament championship KSU -1.5
Obviously a lot of games that impact us today. I see alot of them falling our way. Some of these teams are behind up but i bolded the games for teams that should be ahead of us right now.
HUGE day! Looks like 8 of the 11 games listed above are favored to come through to our benefit. We are also favored by 2.0.
While it's not a given that the Vegas numbers come through, I'll take these odds to start the day.
Now let's get a W and make a move in the bracketology!
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Nebraska IN or OUT?
Penn State What if they beat PU IN or OUT?
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Nebraska out. Paper tigers all the way.
PSU will be an interesting case if they win today, but their computer numbers aren't great.
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Well, we won't get help from SJU today...PondS AND Yakwe OUT...
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/969966208333250560
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Well, we won't get help from SJU today...PondS AND Yakwe OUT...
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/969966208333250560
Ah son of a...
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But really I'm ok with it. Beat creighton and hope for a SHU loss.
I don't want to be the 5 seed. Wouldn't be fun to let butler womp us again in the BEast tourney.
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Nebraska IN or OUT?
Penn State What if they beat PU IN or OUT?
I'd have to think Penn State is in. Odd that they clearly matchup well with OSU. 3 wins against them this year.
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But really I'm ok with it. Beat creighton and hope for a SHU loss.
I don't want to be the 5 seed. Wouldn't be fun to let butler womp us again in the BEast tourney.
In thinking about it some more, You're right, I wouldn't mind PC winning and getting the 3 seed as long as MU is the 6. Much much much rather play PC then Creighton or Butler as the 3 seed.
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In thinking about it some more, You're right, I wouldn't mind PC winning and getting the 3 seed as long as MU is the 6. Much much much rather play PC then Creighton or Butler as the 3 seed.
Didn't realize this was also an option. Honestly, I just want to avoid butler X or Nova.
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In thinking about it some more, You're right, I wouldn't mind PC winning and getting the 3 seed as long as MU is the 6. Much much much rather play PC then Creighton or Butler as the 3 seed.
This would be the dream scenario. If we get to play Providence again, and beat them in Big East tournament, don't see any how committee could put Providence in the tourney, ahead of us. We'd have a 2-1 head to head record, a much better KenPom rating. Feels like Big East will get 6 bids. Losing to Providence at home was a killer.
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Well, we won't get help from SJU today...PondS AND Yakwe OUT...
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/969966208333250560
But Mo Bamba also out for Texas. Fellow bubble team missing their big man who averages a double double is good for us.
Now just get it done against the Jays.
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I'd have to think Penn State is in. Odd that they clearly matchup well with OSU. 3 wins against them this year.
PSU is definitively out right now. They win today they have a case
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WVU sucks
These big12 teams just gonna let everyone get in even tho a bunch of them are trash.
Baylor, Texas and OU are bad
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WVU down 1 with minute to go
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Rule 1: don’t ever trust a Big 12 team in the NCAA tournament
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What a shot by Carter
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Huggins looks like hell. Worried about his health.
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FU CK
West Virginia
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The good news is..if Butler beats Hall tonight..PC is the 3 seed and MU the 6th..absolutely best case scenario..avoid Creighton and Butler again.
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Really unfortunate ponds is hurt. A sju win at providence would have been really nice
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Really unfortunate ponds is hurt. A sju win at providence would have been really nice
Wrong.
We need a Butler win over SHU regardless to leave the 7/10 game.
Give me the 6 vs Providence rather then the 4 vs Butler any day.
Unless I’m mistaken on how the seeding play out.
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Unfortunately Texas, CUSE won, and to a lesser extent Providence. Think it bodes well if MU can face Providence in Big East tourney. Think whoever would win that game would get the Big East's likely 6th and final bid.
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Alabama and Baylor both lost
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So after the win, are we still outside looking in? If so, what will it take to get us in (besides winning the big east tournament)?
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So after the win, are we still outside looking in? If so, what will it take to get us in (besides winning the big east tournament)?
At least 2 wins in BEast tourney.
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Washington losing to Oregon which helps us
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I feel that if Butler beats SHU then we only need to beat Providence but if SHU wins and we face DePaul Wednesday, we may need to beat them and Nova to guarantee a bid.
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I feel that if Butler beats SHU then we only need to beat Providence but if SHU wins and we face DePaul Wednesday, we may need to beat them and Nova to guarantee a bid.
I agree.
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Virginia holds off ND
A win by ND there woulda really brought them back into the convo with Colston being back
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Virginia holds off ND
A win by ND there woulda really brought them back into the convo with Colston being back
Plus, any ND loss is a good loss!
Great weekend, fo sho: ND loses ... F%cky eliminated ... Warriors get an important, entertaining win.
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Playing DePaul would be a killer. No benefit to winning (probably even hurts the SOS) and would end us if they beat MU again.
Huge fan of the bulldogs tonight.
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Playing DePaul would be a killer. No benefit to winning (probably even hurts the SOS) and would end us if they beat MU again.
Huge fan of the bulldogs tonight.
There’s not much hope regardless of who we lose to first game.
But you’re right. Playing DePaul means we still gotta beat Nova most likely to get in.
Where as beating Providence alone should be good(it better be in my opinion).
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Results so far today:
Bad
Texas beats West Virginia
Providence beats St. John's (though it could be good from a BET seeding stand point)
Syracuse beats Clemson
Good
Marquette beats Creighton
LSU beats Miss State
TAMU beats Alabama
Kansas State beats Baylor (kind of a win/win lose/lose but this is the better of the two per TRank)
VCU beats Fordham (RPI bump)
Loyola beats Bradley (eliminates potential bracketbuster)
Virginia beats Notre Dame
Oregon beats Washington
Mostly good results so far. Especially the MU win. Purdue is also up 12 in the second half on Penn State.
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One more good result I missed, Arizona State lost to Stanford. I think they might be the team that gets left out that everyone assumes is in.
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One more good result I missed, Arizona State lost to Stanford. I think they might be the team that gets left out that everyone assumes is in.
I can't think of a bigger in season slide than what ASU went through. Anyone else that's worth Stan poaching?
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One more good result I missed, Arizona State lost to Stanford. I think they might be the team that gets left out that everyone assumes is in.
Them and Oklahoma should be out but will get in
Kinda sad
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Purdue stepping on Penn State's throat. Up 14 with a minute left. I think that should end Penn State's hopes. Also means the B1G won't be producing a bid thief.
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Them and Oklahoma should be out but will get in
Kinda sad
Eh, I know Oklahoma has collapsed...but they have 6 Q1 wins, 0 Q3/Q4 losses, a top 40 RPI and top 25 SOS. They earned their bid.
Arizona State on the other hand has only 3 Q1 wins (all from January 7th or earlier), a Q3 loss, an RPI outside the top 50 and an SOS of 70.
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Eh, I know Oklahoma has collapsed...but they have 6 Q1 wins, 0 Q3/Q4 losses, a top 40 RPI and top 25 SOS. They earned their bid.
Arizona State on the other hand has only 3 Q1 wins (all from January 7th or earlier), a Q3 loss, an RPI outside the top 50 and an SOS of 70.
This is where eye test comes into play tho.
Trey young took teams by storm early on. But eventually(it took a while) they realized literally all you gotta do is game plan for him and he will chuck them out of the game
The rest of that team roster probably finishes 9-9 in the MVC.
But you’re right it’s those damn computer numbers that also make them a quality win for a team like Baylor.
Really hurts us.
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Georgia up 7 on Tennessee. Good.
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... we may need to beat them and Nova to guarantee a bid.
You really think we can beat Villanova in the Big East tournament with money on the line?
I like the way we played today -- but I have my serious doubts on this one.;
I hope I eat these words, but....
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You really think we can beat Villanova in the Big East tournament with money on the line?
I like the way we played today -- but I have my serious doubts on this one.;
I hope I eat these words, but....
I will say.
I’m pretty sure over the last many years the only times we’ve had decent MSG showings are the years were the couple years we needed a win or two to help the tourney hopes(2010 and 2011).
So maybe this year??
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I am not sure, which is the better result.
Seton Hall wins we remain in 7th place, but our two victories over Seton Hall are more impressive. We would have to beat DePaul, but if we cannot beat them we do not deserve to be in NCAA tournament. Beating DePaul in a convincing fashion could indicate that the loss to them was just a fluke.
I think we can beat Villanova, but maybe we do not have to, if we can look good playing them in a close game.
Seton Hall loses ,then we will have to beat Providence. Providence and MU both can be inconsistent teams, so either team could win this one. I agree the winner is in and the loser is out.
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I am not sure, which is the better result.
Seton Hall wins we remain in 7th place, but our two victories over Seton Hall are more impressive. We would have to beat DePaul, but if we cannot beat them we do not deserve to be in NCAA tournament. Beating DePaul in a convincing fashion could indicate that the loss to them was just a fluke.
I think we can beat Villanova, but maybe we do not have to, if we can look good playing them in a close game.
Seton Hall loses ,then we will have to beat Providence. Providence and MU both can be inconsistent teams, so either team could win this one. I agree the winner is in and the loser is out.
I prefer playing Providence.
We gotta get 1 more at least semi noteworthy win.
Win that and it will be really hard to make the team that went 6-1 against SHU, Creighton and Providence the BE team that’s left out.
Beating DePaul does nothing but add a win
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I can't think of a bigger in season slide than what ASU went through.
They were 12-0, ranked #3 in the nation and had 3/4s of ScoopLand waxing poetic about how Hurley was the greatest coach in the history of mankind.
As to the last point, he's still probably a very good coach, but if an MU coach had started 12-0 and then the Warriors fell all the way down to bubble territory, we'd never hear the end of it.
As for similar collapses, I remember a Clemson team a few years ago getting to 11-0 or something and then I think missing the tournament. Maybe. My memory ain't what it used to be.
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Butler realize they got a game to win for us???
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is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?
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Louisville goes down at NC State.
MuMark (IIRC) has been sharing bracketville, one of the more historically accurate brackets out there. Going into today here was how the back end of their bracket looked:
Last Four Byes: Providence (beat SJU), USC, Saint Mary's, Alabama (lost at TAMU)
Last Four In: Kansas State (beat Kansas State), Washington (lost to Oregon at home), Baylor (lost at Kansas State), UCLA
First Four Out: Texas (beat West Virginia), Louisville (lost at NC State), Syracuse (beat Clemson), Marquette (beat Creighton)
Next Four Out: Mississippi State (lost at LSU), Nebraska (done), Utah, Boise State
Based on today's results so far, I would say Texas and Syracuse will move in after today while Washington and Baylor will slide out. Alabama slides closer to the cut off line. Not sure if Marquette will jump Baylor.
Now if we can add a UCLA loss to USC....I think either Marquette or Baylor takes that spot.
Again, this is all based on this one bracketologist.
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is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?
Cbssn had a late start because some mvc game went ot
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is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?
CBSSN
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Cbssn had a late start because some mvc game went ot
Thanks.
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is Butler SHU on tv anywhere?
Yes, CBS sports 221 on direct TV. They didn't click over first 11 minutes due to overtime in previous game.
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Lunardi just tweeted that he us ad first team out as of now
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Come oooooon Butler. What the crap.
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Doesn’t look good. Butler is ice cold from 3. Tough to believe we lost to these guys twice, Martin and not much else, Baldwin is wildly inefficient
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Poop. Butler doesn't look likely to win this. Hoping the rest of the bubble loses and a win over DePaul means something.
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SH interior passing looks dynamite tonight.
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Come oooooon Butler. What the crap.
Eh, after a discussion with a fellow scooper and looking at some advanced metrics projections, I’m thrilled that we’re going the DePaul, Nova route.
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Eh, after a discussion with a fellow scooper and looking at some advanced metrics projections, I’m thrilled that we’re going the DePaul, Nova route.
why:..
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why:..
Get to 20 wins after W against DePaul (likely still matters - it shouldn’t) then have a chance to lock up a bid against Nova. Regardless of outcome against Nova, our advanced numbers improve. It’s the perfect hedge. If we played Providence in the quarters, it’s an absolute must win against a solid team or we’re toast, and even with a win, a berth is far from a certainty. With a Nova win, we’re talking about seeding not bubble. With a loss, we’re cautiously optimistic.
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F you Butler
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Get to 20 wins after W against DePaul (likely still matters - it shouldn’t) then have a chance to lock up a bid against Nova. Regardless of outcome against Nova, our advanced numbers improve. It’s the perfect hedge. If we played Providence in the quarters, it’s an absolute must win against a solid team or we’re toast, and even with a win, a berth is far from a certainty. With a Nova win, we’re talking about seeding not bubble. With a loss, we’re cautiously optimistic.
Um... win against Depaul only gets us to 19.......
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I'd happily play in Dayton at this point.
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Um... win against Depaul only gets us to 19.......
True. My bad. Your double ellipsis at the end is ominous.
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I'd happily play in Dayton at this point.
:-\ If they would have just beaten DePaul one week ago, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Dammit! >:(
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Now I've been enjoying my beverages at my local drinkery, but watching USC, UCLA, neither team would worry me if we got them in Dayton. Couldn't give an analysis, just been a relatively sloppy game with both teams missing wide open looks.
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Middle Tennessee State lost at home to Marshall today. They should be the auto-bid from CUSA but if they lose in the tournament, could they steal a bid? Bracket Matrix has them as the top 11 seed and some brackets list them as high as a six seed (which is crazy).
They have three Q1 wins which is impressive...until you look at the Q1 wins. They are road wins over Murray State, Western Kentucky, and Old Dominion....not exactly movers and shakers. Computer numbers are solid and today's loss to Marshall is their worst.
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Western Kentucky got blasted by UAB. C-USA looks like a one bid league.
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Middle Tennessee State lost at home to Marshall today. They should be the auto-bid from CUSA but if they lose in the tournament, could they steal a bid? Bracket Matrix has them as the top 11 seed and some brackets list them as high as a six seed (which is crazy).
Hoping MTSU gets the auto and WKU loses early to eliminate any drama there, but I'm glad to see both lose. If someone else does win CUSA, it damages either team's at large shot. I'm all about dragging them to the cut line. 5 combined Q1/2 wins and I'd argue their best Q1 win is lesser quality than our worst. Especially that they now have a Q3 loss.
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Middle Tennessee State lost at home to Marshall today. They should be the auto-bid from CUSA but if they lose in the tournament, could they steal a bid? Bracket Matrix has them as the top 11 seed and some brackets list them as high as a six seed (which is crazy).
They have three Q1 wins which is impressive...until you look at the Q1 wins. They are road wins over Murray State, Western Kentucky, and Old Dominion....not exactly movers and shakers. Computer numbers are solid and today's loss to Marshall is their worst.
MTSU is an interesting case. Though the NCAA says they don’t consider past years’ performances, I think they will get a closer look because of their wins in the first round the last 2 years. If they don’t get the auto bid, that would mean another loss that could be a bad one. As you point out, their Q1 wins are not impressive, so they have no wins over teams in the NCAA field (unless one of the lesser teams gets an auto bid.
Their OOC SOS is solid (7) though it’s hard to see exactly why when you see their opponents. They must do an unusually good job of avoiding those really bad teams.
I wouldn’t give them an at large bid, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the NCAA did. They sometimes seem to like to throw a bone to the critics who say they give too many bids to the power conferences. Have to hope they win the auto bid; I really don’t see Western Kentucky getting an at large bid. Their resume is a November win over Purdue and not much else.
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Not an expert here but wasn't Nevada's loss a big deal for the bubble?
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Not an expert here but wasn't Nevada's loss a big deal for the bubble?
Probably not. Nevada is considered to be pretty much a lock for the tournament and one loss isn't going to change that.
The bubble impact would come if Nevada does not win the Mountain West conference tournament and lands in the at large pool. Nevada could then take an at large spot from one of the teams now on the bubble.
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Probably not. Nevada is considered to be pretty much a lock for the tournament and one loss isn't going to change that.
The bubble impact would come if Nevada does not win the Mountain West conference tournament and lands in the at large pool. Nevada could then take an at large spot from one of the teams now on the bubble.
My bad, I thought it was in their conference tournament. These early small conference tournaments like the OVC and B1G throw me off.
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Louisville goes down at NC State.
MuMark (IIRC) has been sharing bracketville, one of the more historically accurate brackets out there. Going into today here was how the back end of their bracket looked:
Last Four Byes: Providence (beat SJU), USC, Saint Mary's, Alabama (lost at TAMU)
Last Four In: Kansas State (beat Kansas State), Washington (lost to Oregon at home), Baylor (lost at Kansas State), UCLA
First Four Out: Texas (beat West Virginia), Louisville (lost at NC State), Syracuse (beat Clemson), Marquette (beat Creighton)
Next Four Out: Mississippi State (lost at LSU), Nebraska (done), Utah, Boise State
Based on today's results so far, I would say Texas and Syracuse will move in after today while Washington and Baylor will slide out. Alabama slides closer to the cut off line. Not sure if Marquette will jump Baylor.
Now if we can add a UCLA loss to USC....I think either Marquette or Baylor takes that spot.
Again, this is all based on this one bracketologist.
He says we are in as of now
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
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He says we are in as of now
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
So does Palm..
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
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Because there aren't many games with bubble implications for the next few days there will be plenty of time to compare teams and resumes. For those who enjoy doing this, what things on their team sheets do you think the Committee value the most:
1. RPI
2. Overall computer metrics
3. Quadrant 1 records.
4. Quadrant 1 and 2 records combined
5. Quality of Q1 wins (giving extra credit for higher ranked opponents)
6. Losses in Quadrants 3 and 4.
7. Strength of Schedule
8. OOC SOS
9. Quality of road wins
10. Impact of injuries during the season (the ND Factor).
11. Others
I am intentionally eliminating things that some people will be talking about that the Committee says it doesn't consider. These include conference records and standings, number of teams from a conference in the field, and how a team has played in the last few weeks or month.
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Because there aren't many games with bubble implications for the next few days there will be plenty of time to compare teams and resumes. For those who enjoy doing this, what things on their team sheets do you think the Committee value the most:
1. RPI
2. Overall computer metrics
3. Quadrant 1 records.
4. Quadrant 1 and 2 records combined
5. Quality of Q1 wins (giving extra credit for higher ranked opponents)
6. Losses in Quadrants 3 and 4.
7. Strength of Schedule
8. OOC SOS
9. Quality of road wins
10. Impact of injuries during the season (the ND Factor).
11. Others
1a. Losses to DePaul
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He says we are in as of now
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
And if I'm reading this correctly, we are in and buffered by both Syracuse and Alabama. Nice.
So here's what next for the people around us on the bubble:
Last Four Byes:
Butler: Seton Hall then winner of Nova/MU/Depaul
Arizona State: Colorado then Arizona
Kansas State: TCU then winner of KU/OkSt/OU
Texas: Iowa State then Texas Tech
Last Four In:
UCLA: Winner of Stanford/Cal then winner of ASU/Colo/Zona
Marquette: Depaul then Nova
Syracuse: Wake Forest then UNC
Alabama: Texas A&M then Auburn
First Four Out
Baylor: West Virginia then winner of TTU/TU/IAST
Washington: Oregon St then USC
USC: Winner of WASH/OrSt then winner of Utah/ORE/WSU
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma then Kansas
Next Four Out:
Louisville: Florida State then Virginia
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh then Virginia Tech
LSU: Mississippi State then Tennessee
Penn State: DONE
There are a lot of teams in our boat with a game against a "lesser" team before playing a quality opponent. Lots of opportunities for a slip up.
Oh and Arizona State is a 9 seed in the PAC 12. They shouldn't be on the right side of the bubble
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Dance Card has us in with a cushion as if now.......is ASU really in jeopardy of missing the tournament? Man that would be an epic collapse
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Bracket Matrix is updated and still shows us as the third out. However, the number of brackets that have us in the tourney doubled overnight, from 12 to 25 (if I remember right).
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Dance Card has us in with a cushion as if now.......is ASU really in jeopardy of missing the tournament? Man that would be an epic collapse
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance
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i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance
Also gives Temple a 99.75% chance, so....
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And if I'm reading this correctly, we are in and buffered by both Syracuse and Alabama. Nice.
So here's what next for the people around us on the bubble:
Last Four Byes:
Butler: Seton Hall then winner of Nova/MU/Depaul
Arizona State: Colorado then Arizona
Kansas State: TCU then winner of KU/OkSt/OU
Texas: Iowa State then Texas Tech
Last Four In:
UCLA: Winner of Stanford/Cal then winner of ASU/Colo/Zona
Marquette: Depaul then Nova
Syracuse: Wake Forest then UNC
Alabama: Texas A&M then Auburn
First Four Out
Baylor: West Virginia then winner of TTU/TU/IAST
Washington: Oregon St then USC
USC: Winner of WASH/OrSt then winner of Utah/ORE/WSU
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma then Kansas
Next Four Out:
Louisville: Florida State then Virginia
Notre Dame: Pittsburgh then Virginia Tech
LSU: Mississippi State then Tennessee
Penn State: DONE
There are a lot of teams in our boat with a game against a "lesser" team before playing a quality opponent. Lots of opportunities for a slip up.
Oh and Arizona State is a 9 seed in the PAC 12. They shouldn't be on the right side of the bubble
Thanks for pulling this together. If you accepted this as the actual state of the bubble (which obviously none of us can assume) it also highlights how shaky MU’s position would be if they beat DePaul then lose. It wouldn’t take many teams behind them picking up one or two decent wins to jump ahead. Then there’s the possibility of bid stealers. At least there can’t be one in the B10 and Loyola winning the MVC ends any possibility of them making a case for an at large.
When teams like Penn State with weak resumes and no more games to play are showing up on the “next out” lists, it shows that the bubble is really shrinking.
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i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance
No,it doesn't......it says teams with our current profile have made it 100% of the time in previous seasons........bubble is strong this year.......going to be a couple if teams that would have made it in past years there are going to be left out.
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Lunardi update from Twitter: he currently has us as the first team listed in the “first 4 out” group. Seems like a 49/51 percent odds. This is going to be a long week, until selection Sunday
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Lunardi update from Twitter: he currently has us as the first team listed in the “first 4 out” group. Seems like a 49/51 percent odds. This is going to be a long week, until selection Sunday
This was before UCLA beat USC. So we could be anywhere from last team in to 2nd team out depending on how he reshuffles those two teams.
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i love how it gives us a 100% chance to dance
Anybody with ESPN Insider know what they have us at in terms of a tournament bid percentage?
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Anybody with ESPN Insider know what they have us at in terms of a tournament bid percentage?
I can look if you let me know where I'd find that.
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Bracket Matrix is updated and still shows us as the third out. However, the number of brackets that have us in the tourney doubled overnight, from 12 to 25 (if I remember right).
Afternoon update has us in 29 brackets. 2nd team out.
Edit: later afternoon update has us up to 32 brackets.
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Sorry if this is in here, just back on computer and trying to catch up.
So Palm has us last team IN
Lunardi has us first team OUT
ESPN Resume has us SEVEN in for what it's worth - and 11 seed with no playin game.
And Bracketmatrix has us 4th team out:
Bracket Matrix
Last Four In
Providence 67
UCLA 62
Alabama 52
Baylor 51
First Four Out
Louisville 34
Marquette 32
Syracuse 28
Oklahoma State 11
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See Lunardi's tweet from yesterday
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Sounds like "crapshoot" starts well before the tourney for us!
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I'm leaning in, but if anything, this bubble shows two things. First, we have always been a lot closer than many thought. Second, there's a lot of dispute how the new factors will influence the Committee's decisions.
Based on the number of legit good wins we have, proving we can win away from home, and across the board solid computer numbers, I feel relatively confident, but this is definitely the year they could throw some curveballs that no one sees coming.
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I'm leaning in, but if anything, this bubble shows two things. First, we have always been a lot closer than many thought. Second, there's a lot of dispute how the new factors will influence the Committee's decisions.
Based on the number of legit good wins we have, proving we can win away from home, and across the board solid computer numbers, I feel relatively confident, but this is definitely the year they could throw some curveballs that no one sees coming.
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The only curveball we need to hit is Villanova.
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It's a coin flip now and a coin flip it shall be next Sunday unless we beat Villanova.
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The only curveball we need to hit is Villanova.
We got this.
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Is St. Mary's really a lock?
RPI 36
SOS 182
Best wins
@Gonzaga 29
New Mexico St 41
BYU 81
@BYU 81
Two bad losses (sub 100)
Washington St
@San Francisco
0 games vs top 25 RPI
12-0 sub 200
(compared to Marquette 0-6 vs top 25, 5-0 sub 200)
They're considered a lock but I am not so sure.
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Thanks for pulling this together. If you accepted this as the actual state of the bubble (which obviously none of us can assume) it also highlights how shaky MU’s position would be if they beat DePaul then lose. It wouldn’t take many teams behind them picking up one or two decent wins to jump ahead. Then there’s the possibility of bid stealers. At least there can’t be one in the B10 and Loyola winning the MVC ends any possibility of them making a case for an at large.
When teams like Penn State with weak resumes and no more games to play are showing up on the “next out” lists, it shows that the bubble is really shrinking.
Here's the thing though, the other teams on the bubble are on the bubble for a reason...they haven't proven they can win consistently against tough competition. I mean the PAC12 is darn near a 1 bid league. If we don't beat Nova that doesn't mean some how other teams are going to win their version of the Nova games to get ahead of us.
I think we are in Dayton if we go 1-1 unless the bubble breaks just about all the wrong ways for us (at least 4 teams go on deep conference runs).
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I feel there’s going to be a few head scratcher bubble decisions. I think the committee could have us anywhere from a 10 seed or 8 spots out.
The fact Lunardi and Palm didn’t really have us on the radar for so long makes me think the prognosticators will be more inaccurate than usual. There’s so many bubble options, who knows what the committee is picking as their tiebreaker.
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I feel there’s going to be a few head scratcher bubble decisions. I think the committee could have us anywhere from a 10 seed or 8 spots out.
The fact Lunardi and Palm didn’t really have us on the radar for so long makes me think the prognosticators will be more inaccurate than usual. There’s so many bubble options, who knows what the committee is picking as their tiebreaker.
This.
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2nd team out in Lunardi's update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Last Four Byes:
Kansas State
Providence
Arizona state
Baylor
Last Four In:
Texas
USC
UCLA
Alabama
First Four Out:
Louisville
Marquette
OK State
Notre Dame
Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska
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Last team in in Palm's morning update
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
3rd last team in per Bracketville's update this morning
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
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I did a quick review this morning. I got 14 bubble teams competing for 8 spots.
It is going to be incredibly tight. Very little separating the last byes from the NIT 2 seeds.
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I have a tough time figuring out Louisville ahead of MU in the pecking order.
Sure they have no bad losses, but their 9 ACC wins are so blah. Two good wins, two decent wins, and the rest is trash.
Pitt (H)
Florida State (A)
Virginia Tech (H)
Notre Dame (A)
Boston College (H)
Wake Forest (H)
Georgia Tech (H)
Georgia Tech (A)
Pitt (A)
Virginia Tech (A)
Best non-con win was Indiana. Lost 7 of last 10. Only 4 Q1 and Q2 wins combined.
Q1: 3-10
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0
Not seeing it, personally. They should be in the convo and their RPI and SOS help, but I think MU's wins are clearly superior.
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I won't complain about our fate no matter what because we controlled our own destiny.
But I do have to admit I don't want ND to get in at our expense! That would suck!! Here's hoping the Effen Irish fall fast and hard in the ACC tourney.
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I have a tough time figuring out Louisville ahead of MU in the pecking order.
Sure they have no bad losses, but their 9 ACC wins are so blah. Two good wins, two decent wins, and the rest is trash.
Pitt (H)
Florida State (A)
Virginia Tech (H)
Notre Dame (A)
Boston College (H)
Wake Forest (H)
Georgia Tech (H)
Georgia Tech (A)
Pitt (A)
Virginia Tech (A)
Best non-con win was Indiana. Lost 7 of last 10. Only 4 Q1 and Q2 wins combined.
Q1: 3-10
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0
Not seeing it, personally. They should be in the convo and their RPI and SOS help, but I think MU's wins are clearly superior.
This is going to be one of the prime examples of things we will learn this year, do they value good wins or no bad losses more. They simply are doing things different this year so it is creating a lot more uncertainty. Honestly, in the old system with our RPI and SoS I think we're in relatively comfortably but with the new systems where quality of wins is numerically represented and higher order metrics are considered we're in a little more difficult/uncertain position.
My mind boggles that if Seton Hall lost to Butler or if we had beaten DePaul we would be safely in going 1-1 in Big East. I mean is the path really that narrow this year? How are SEC teams with losing conference records getting into the dance over us?
This will be the most anxious tournament selection in years for MU and I'm not sure I'm ready for it.
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This is going to be one of the prime examples of things we will learn this year, do they value good wins or no bad losses more. They simply are doing things different this year so it is creating a lot more uncertainty. Honestly, in the old system with our RPI and SoS I think we're in relatively comfortably but with the new systems where quality of wins is numerically represented and higher order metrics are considered we're in a little more difficult/uncertain position.
My mind boggles that if Seton Hall lost to Butler or if we had beaten DePaul we would be safely in going 1-1 in Big East. I mean is the path really that narrow this year? How are SEC teams with losing conference records getting into the dance over us?
This will be the most anxious tournament selection in years for MU and I'm not sure I'm ready for it.
Yep. I still need to see it to believe it with regards to the SEC getting 8-9 bids.
However, regarding the bolded, going 1-1 with a win over Hall, Creighton, Butler or PC is a little different than beating Depaul. Tougher win to get.
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Yep. I still need to see it to believe it with regards to the SEC getting 8-9 bids.
However, regarding the bolded, going 1-1 with a win over Hall, Creighton, Butler or PC is a little different than beating Depaul. Tougher win to get.
The quality of the win over DePaul really doesn't matter, but it gets us to 10-8 in conference at the 3 seed in the Big East....yes the committee doesn't care about conference standings but damn that would be a tough thing to explain leaving out the 3rd place team in the 3rd best conference in the country with an SoS in the top 30 and an RPI in the top 50.
So if we had beaten DePaul, we wouldn't be in a position to need the 1-1 in Big East IMO
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I have a tough time figuring out Louisville ahead of MU in the pecking order.
Sure they have no bad losses, but their 9 ACC wins are so blah. Two good wins, two decent wins, and the rest is trash.
Pitt (H)
Florida State (A)
Virginia Tech (H)
Notre Dame (A)
Boston College (H)
Wake Forest (H)
Georgia Tech (H)
Georgia Tech (A)
Pitt (A)
Virginia Tech (A)
Best non-con win was Indiana. Lost 7 of last 10. Only 4 Q1 and Q2 wins combined.
Q1: 3-10
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0
Not seeing it, personally. They should be in the convo and their RPI and SOS help, but I think MU's wins are clearly superior.
Louisville will sell more tickets than Marquette. No one will say it publicly but it matters.
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I did a quick review this morning. I got 14 bubble teams competing for 8 spots.
It is going to be incredibly tight. Very little separating the last byes from the NIT 2 seeds.
What are the 14 teams you are considering for the bubble?
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The quality of the win over DePaul really doesn't matter, but it gets us to 10-8 in conference at the 3 seed in the Big East....yes the committee doesn't care about conference standings but damn that would be a tough thing to explain leaving out the 3rd place team in the 3rd best conference in the country with an SoS in the top 30 and an RPI in the top 50.
So if we had beaten DePaul, we wouldn't be in a position to need the 1-1 in Big East IMO
Yah, I agree. I thought you were saying 1-1 would be necessary at 10-8. I don't believe it would as you'd be playing another tourney team. Think we're on the same page.
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Louisville will sell more tickets than Marquette. No one will say it publicly but it matters.
It shouldn't matter to Lunardi.
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Is St. Mary's really a lock?
RPI 36
SOS 182
Best wins
@Gonzaga 29
New Mexico St 41
BYU 81
@BYU 81
Two bad losses (sub 100)
Washington St
@San Francisco
0 games vs top 25 RPI
12-0 sub 200
(compared to Marquette 0-6 vs top 25, 5-0 sub 200)
They're considered a lock but I am not so sure.
A couple of brackets had them on the last 4 byes line. I stayed up to watch their quarterfinal game with sub 300 rpi Pepperdine. The Waves led the entire game, even had a 15 point lead at one point but the Gaels pulled it out in the end. I think that could have ended their season
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2nd team out in Lunardi's update this morning.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Last Four Byes:
Kansas State
Providence
Arizona state
Baylor
Last Four In:
Texas
USC
UCLA
Alabama
First Four Out:
Louisville
Marquette
OK State
Notre Dame
Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Penn State
Boise State
Nebraska
Will be interesting how the Committee treats Nebraska. 4th place in conference and won 13 games in conference for a 22-10 overall. The prognosticators all seem to have written them off.
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Louisville will sell more tickets than Marquette. No one will say it publicly but it matters.
It probably doesn't and Louisville's incremental ticket sales would be drop in the bucket when it's all said and done.
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I'm hoping having Creighton's AD as committee head also gives us an additional boost. If Marquette makes it, his conference and his school makes more $$$$.
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Will be interesting how the Committee treats Nebraska. 4th place in conference and won 13 games in conference for a 22-10 overall. The prognosticators all seem to have written them off.
Because they managed to win 13 Big 10 games and only beat 1 tournament team, at home. They only have 4 RPI top 100 wins, and one of those is Boston College. All games were at home.
I don't think they're even in the discussion.
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Because they managed to win 13 Big 10 games and only beat 1 tournament team, at home. They only have 4 RPI top 100 wins, and one of those is Boston College. All games were at home.
I don't think they're even in the discussion.
Terrible SOS, weak B1G schedule, only 1 win of relevance. They're NIT bound.
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Because they managed to win 13 Big 10 games and only beat 1 tournament team, at home. They only have 4 RPI top 100 wins, and one of those is Boston College. All games were at home.
I don't think they're even in the discussion.
That is what their fan board thinks too.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-march-madness-nebraska-husker-bracket-bubble-team-seed-big-ten/blgi9lzjod7e1g63luarg5e4n
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Nebraska fans/media kept saying they passed the eye test and were sure they'd be in if they could get a quality win against Michigan last week. They went out and got smashed by Michigan and looked terrible in the process. They had a stretch where they went 1-20 from the floor. In my opinion they don't even belong in the bubble conversation.
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I think this is where the double round-robin is just great! No unbalanced schedules. Sure, a team like Nebraska can only play who is on their schedule, but at least all the Big East teams know what the schedule is going to be year in and year out.
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Is a 17-14 8-10 Bama really ahead of us??
Joke
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Is a 17-14 8-10 Bama really ahead of us??
Joke
Yeah and they don't even have a ton of great wins. Not seeing that at all.
Best non con win is Rhode Island/Oklahoma. Losses to Arizona, UCF, Texas and Minnesota. Best wins in conference are Tennessee and Auburn at home. Beat Florida on the road.
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Honestly, evaluating our resume individually I think we should probably be in if we beat DePaul. Not sure that will be the case, but our resume is solid. One bad loss. One semi bad loss (hope Georgia can pull out a couple SEC tournament wins). 6 of 12 losses to top 12 RPI, with 4 of them being to top 3 RPI teams.
4-5 Q1 wins.
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Is a 17-14 8-10 Bama really ahead of us??
Joke
Those 4 top 25 wins are really carrying them right now
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Those 4 top 25 wins are really carrying them right now
Hopefully A&M rolls them
Should eliminate any further discussion on them
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Asked Dave Ommen (bracketville) about why he seemed higher on MU than others . This is his reply.
Bracketville
@BracketguyDave
Not sure why; my take on profile, I guess compared to others around them. Beating DePaul a must. After that, without beating Nova, it all depends on what happens around them. Could end up a little short or just inside, IMO.
So pretty much what we're all saying here. 0-1, out. 1-1, maybe. 2 or more wins, in.
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Asked Dave Ommen (bracketville) about why he seemed higher on MU than others . This is his reply.
Bracketville
@BracketguyDave
Not sure why; my take on profile, I guess compared to others around them. Beating DePaul a must. After that, without beating Nova, it all depends on what happens around them. Could end up a little short or just inside, IMO.
So pretty much what we're all saying here. 0-1, out. 1-1, maybe. 2 or more wins, in.
How many times have we all been on Scoop over the last few days hoping that a national pundit says otherwise, a la, we are safe after a W over DePaul. Alas, it's not to be.
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Hoping to get Alabama crushed by TAMU and South Carolina to beat Ole Miss to give Bama a third tier 3 loss.
Every little bit helps
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Here's my confusion with Lunardi - As of Saturday night,before UCLA beat USC, He had Marquette as the first team listed under the last 4 out group. We had a win that afternoon over a quality CU team. UCLA beats another bubble team. and now both are ahead of MU. how does this make any sense?
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Here's my confusion with Lunardi - As of Saturday night,before UCLA beat USC, He had Marquette as the first team listed under the last 4 out group. We had a win that afternoon over a quality CU team. UCLA beats another bubble team. and now both are ahead of MU. how does this make any sense?
MU's win was already included. UCLA's was not.
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Here's my confusion with Lunardi - As of Saturday night,before UCLA beat USC, He had Marquette as the first team listed under the last 4 out group. We had a win that afternoon over a quality CU team. UCLA beats another bubble team. and now both are ahead of MU. how does this make any sense?
He personally must like USC's resume more than MUs and felt he needed to boost UCLA over USC, so had to jump both USC and MU. Not agreeing with him, but I assume that is his logic.
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MU's win was already included. UCLA's was not.
So is it just the fact that they have an additional win that puts them in?
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So is it just the fact that they have an additional win that puts them in?
Apparently. I don't necessarily agree with it. I think we have a better resume than Bama, Baylor, Louisville, and USC (without Boatwright)
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How many times have we all been on Scoop over the last few days hoping that a national pundit says otherwise, a la, we are safe after a W over DePaul. Alas, it's not to be.
Yep, I'm going with Forest Gump and his Box of Chocolates.
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Somewhere in this thread (or perhaps another one) was a posting about which conferences could have a potential "bid thief". Aside from a lower seed winning one of the big six conferences, can anyone identify the conferences that we should watch for "bid thieves" or point me to the post that already has this information? (I'm assuming MWC, WCC, A10, AAC).
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Somewhere in this thread (or perhaps another one) was a posting about which conferences could have a potential "bid thief". Aside from a lower seed winning one of the big six conferences, can anyone identify the conferences that we should watch for "bid thieves" or point me to the post that already has this information? (I'm assuming MWC, WCC, A10, AAC).
You got the main ones.
MWC: Anybody but Nevada
WCC: Anybody but gonzaga/St. Mary's
A10: Anybody but Rhode Island/Saint Bonaventure
AAC: Anybody but Cinci/Wichita/Houston
You could maybe add:
CUSA: Anybody but Middle Tennessee State
Personally, I don't see the Blue Raiders getting an at large bid would rather not test that theory.
MWC is the one I'm most worried about. All the others have at least one team thats head and shoulders above the rest.
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You got the main ones.
MWC: Anybody but Nevada
WCC: Anybody but gonzaga/St. Mary's
A10: Anybody but Rhode Island/Saint Bonaventure
AAC: Anybody but Cinci/Wichita/Houston
You could maybe add:
CUSA: Anybody but Middle Tennessee State
Personally, I don't see the Blue Raiders getting an at large bid would rather not test that theory.
MWC is the one I'm most worried about. All the others have at least one team thats head and shoulders above the rest.
Yup, most worried about MWC and then A10.
WCC semis are tonight, Gonzaga facing San Francisco followed by St. Mary's facing BYU. That one could be wrapped up if both Gonzaga and St. Mary's pick up wins.
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Yup, most worried about MWC and then A10.
WCC semis are tonight, Gonzaga facing San Francisco followed by St. Mary's facing BYU. That one could be wrapped up if both Gonzaga and St. Mary's pick up wins.
I think if St. Mary's loses tonight, they should be nervous. Not sure if that is the preferred route for MU, but a Gonzaga-St. Mary's final pretty much guarantees 2 bids from WCC. A Gonzaga-BYU means somewhere between 1-3 bids. I'll go with the latter, because I don't think the Zags are going to lose to BYU if BYU knocked off St. Mary's.
St. Mary's is an interesting case. Assuming they don't get the AQ, they'll have just 5 losses. But they've beaten the Zags once and that is their only win of substance. Losses to Washington State and San Fran. 2nd and third best wins over New Mexico State and BYU. I don't know...they could be left out if they lose tonight. They haven't played anybody.
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You got the main ones.
MWC: Anybody but Nevada
WCC: Anybody but gonzaga/St. Mary's
A10: Anybody but Rhode Island/Saint Bonaventure
AAC: Anybody but Cinci/Wichita/Houston
You could maybe add:
CUSA: Anybody but Middle Tennessee State
Personally, I don't see the Blue Raiders getting an at large bid would rather not test that theory.
MWC is the one I'm most worried about. All the others have at least one team thats head and shoulders above the rest.
Thanks TAMU.
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I just thought of this but you could also add the PAC 12.
They have 5 bubble teams but only 1 lock. If anyone but Arizona wins the PAC 12, they could be considered a bid thef.
Also, with none of the bubble teams playing each other in the first round, there is a legitimate path to the PAC 12 being a 1 bid league. It's unlikely and would require Oregon state to win two games... But it's possible
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I just thought of this but you could also add the PAC 12.
They have 5 bubble teams but only 1 lock. If anyone but Arizona wins the PAC 12, they could be considered a bid thef.
Also, with none of the bubble teams playing each other in the first round, there is a legitimate path to the PAC 12 being a 1 bid league. It's unlikely and would require Oregon state to win two games... But it's possible
I counted them in the big six comment. Having said that, I find it hard to believe they won't get at least 2 teams in (and more likely 3-4).
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I counted them in the big six comment. Having said that, I find it hard to believe they won't get at least 2 teams in (and more likely 3-4).
Agreed. Arizona State and UCLA are on the right side of the cutline at this point IMHO. USC and Washington are on the wrong side but close. Utah I think is pretty fringe. I assume 1-3 of them will take care of business... But if they all lose their first game...
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Agreed. Arizona State and UCLA are on the right side of the cutline at this point IMHO. USC and Washington are on the wrong side but close. Utah I think is pretty fringe. I assume 1-3 of them will take care of business... But if they all lose their first game...
...we should be doing jumping jacks in joy!
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Crazy the Pac 12 couldn't get their tournament on national TV. Utah vs. Oregon/WSU will be on FS1. One semifinal will be on FS1 and the final will be on FS1. The other 8 games will be on the pac 12 network
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http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2018-ncaa-basketball-tournament-bracket-rankings-bubble-kansas-duke-unc-kentucky-michigan-state/pfc27912bwt5105i2ezbv2g25
No. 11 seeds: UCLA, Providence, USC, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Syracuse
UCLA (20-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 49/38/36. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-2
Providence (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 71/43/39. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
*USC (21-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 46/34/35. vs. Q1: 4-6. vs. Q2: 5-3. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
*Saint Mary's (28-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 25/36/55. vs. Q1: 1-1. vs. Q2: 2-1. vs. Q3/4: 25-2
*Oklahoma State (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 57/88/52. vs. Q1: 5-10. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 9-0
*Syracuse (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 51/40/41. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 13-2
Rest of the bracket:
(* First Four teams)
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
First four out
Marquette (18-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 50/57/48. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-2
Baylor (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 33/61/56. vs. Q1: 4-10. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-0
Notre Dame (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 31/66/62. vs. Q1: 2-8. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
Alabama (17-14): Pom/RPI/KPI: 53/59/30. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 4-6. vs. Q3/4: 8-2
Still in the conversation …
Louisville (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 34/46/57. vs. Q1: 3-10. vs. Q2: 1-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-0
Washington (20-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 97/63/51. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 15-1
Utah (19-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 62/47/44. vs. Q1: 3-5. vs. Q2: 4-4. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
Penn State (21-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 30/76/67. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 16-3
Boise State (23-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 52/42/59. vs. Q1: 2-2. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 16-2
Nebraska (22-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 56/64/64. vs. Q1: 1-6. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 19-1
READ THIS
pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/ea/joel-berry-net-north-carolina-getty-ftrjpg_5vamkeh4e216zyy5i1627d42.jpg?t=953719995&w=178
When did your college hoops team last win a national title?
BILL BENDER
pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/3b/e/cal-henson-williams-ftr-gettyjpg_1qum8frwgef9s1kwmxb84b3985.jpg?t=-1031406973&w=178
33 best teams that didn't win the NCAA Tournament
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Crazy the Pac 12 couldn't get their tournament on national TV. Utah vs. Oregon/WSU will be on FS1. One semifinal will be on FS1 and the final will be on FS1. The other 8 games will be on the pac 12 network
My old man is Arizona alum. I grew up watching the Cats, but wasn't much of a passionate hoops fan until college.
He fu**ing hates the P12 Network. Literally cannot get in the midwest through any major television provider. He eventually caved out of frustration and got slingtv to watch the games. That network is joke.
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Oklahoma State in? You have got to be kidding me! Fringe bubble at best.
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My old man is Arizona alum. I grew up watching the Cats, but wasn't much of a passionate hoops fan until college.
He fu**ing hates the P12 Network. Literally cannot get in the midwest through any major television provider. He eventually caved out of frustration and got slingtv to watch the games. That network is joke.
It's nuts. I'm working from home on Friday and was checking to see which games I'd be able to watch. Checked all the major conference tournament TV. We really are lucky with the Big East.
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http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2018-ncaa-basketball-tournament-bracket-rankings-bubble-kansas-duke-unc-kentucky-michigan-state/pfc27912bwt5105i2ezbv2g25
No. 11 seeds: UCLA, Providence, USC, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Syracuse
UCLA (20-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 49/38/36. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-2
Providence (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 71/43/39. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
*USC (21-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 46/34/35. vs. Q1: 4-6. vs. Q2: 5-3. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
*Saint Mary's (28-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 25/36/55. vs. Q1: 1-1. vs. Q2: 2-1. vs. Q3/4: 25-2
*Oklahoma State (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 57/88/52. vs. Q1: 5-10. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 9-0
*Syracuse (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 51/40/41. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 13-2
Rest of the bracket:
(* First Four teams)
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
First four out
Marquette (18-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 50/57/48. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-2
Baylor (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 33/61/56. vs. Q1: 4-10. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-0
Notre Dame (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 31/66/62. vs. Q1: 2-8. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
Alabama (17-14): Pom/RPI/KPI: 53/59/30. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 4-6. vs. Q3/4: 8-2
Still in the conversation …
Louisville (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 34/46/57. vs. Q1: 3-10. vs. Q2: 1-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-0
Washington (20-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 97/63/51. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 15-1
Utah (19-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 62/47/44. vs. Q1: 3-5. vs. Q2: 4-4. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
Penn State (21-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 30/76/67. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 16-3
Boise State (23-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 52/42/59. vs. Q1: 2-2. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 16-2
Nebraska (22-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 56/64/64. vs. Q1: 1-6. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 19-1
READ THIS
pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/ea/joel-berry-net-north-carolina-getty-ftrjpg_5vamkeh4e216zyy5i1627d42.jpg?t=953719995&w=178
When did your college hoops team last win a national title?
BILL BENDER
pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/3b/e/cal-henson-williams-ftr-gettyjpg_1qum8frwgef9s1kwmxb84b3985.jpg?t=-1031406973&w=178
33 best teams that didn't win the NCAA Tournament
Hard to argue we should be in the tourney instead of any of those 11-seeds... eh?
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Hard to argue we should be in the tourney instead of any of those 11-seeds... eh?
Disagree. I think you can make arguments against all of them. Some points better than others, but none of those teams resumes really differ much from Marquette.
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Hard to argue we should be in the tourney instead of any of those 11-seeds... eh?
I would place us ahead of Saint Mary's and Syracuse.
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Sorry if this has been mentioned or intimated, but frankly, I think MU's hopes comes down to how much weight the Committee gives to Road and Neutral W/L, especially against probable competition (i.e. QI teams)... this has been a metric cited up and down over the years, some years being the key metric that pushed a team into the tournament, while some years being seemingly overlooked. The argument here - obviously - is that you want to put teams into the tourney who can compete/win, i.e. the committee may be reluctant to put a team with a stellar home - but dismal R/N - record into the tourney because, of course, nobody plays at home during the tourney.
| Team | Road W/L | Neutral W/L | QI-Road | QI-Neutral |
| Marquette | 5-5 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| OK State | 3-7 | 2-1 | 2-7 | 1-1 |
| Syracuse | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| USC | 6-5 | 3-1 | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| UCLA | 3-7 | 3-1 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| SMC | 10-1 | 2-2 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Baylor | 2-9 | 2-0 | 1-8 | 1-0 |
| ND | 5-7 | 2-1 | 1-6 | 1-0 |
| Alabama | 2-8 | 3-1 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Providence | 4-7 | 2-1 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Lousiville | 4-7 | 1-0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Washington | 5-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Utah | 5-6 | 2-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
Only 3 of the teams above are at least .500 in road and neutral games, but one of those is SMC who is 10-1 and 2-2 (Road/Neutral) but against Quad 1 is only 1-0 and 0-0. So that leaves USC and Marquette ahead of the rest of the group. Going one step further in looking at overall R/N against Quad 1, you really start to see USC and Marquette standing out (4-5, 3-4, respectively) along with Utah (3-4).
If anything is going to tip the tourney scales in MU's favor, it's going to be that 3-3 road record against QI. If the Committee wants to emphasize winning on the road, this is exactly what MU could hope for.
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One thing not included in the above info from AuburnMarquette is road wins. MU is pretty solid in that category, with three of our Q1 wins on the road.
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Oklahoma State in? You have got to be kidding me! Fringe bubble at best.
I think Sporting News is probably doing that wondering if it's all about Q1 wins this year, in light of how high Oklahoma was in the 16 teams released a few weeks ago.
Oklahoma State and Alabama are the only two teams on their list with more Q1 wins than Marquette (5 each), but with Alabama's typical stellar 2-8 road record and Oklahoma State being one better at 3-7 (thanks for compiling Benny) I agree.
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If OKSU, Saint Marys and Syracuse get in before mu then that will be BS
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Sorry if this has been mentioned or intimated, but frankly, I think MU's hopes comes down to how much weight the Committee gives to Road and Neutral W/L, especially against probable competition (i.e. QI teams)... this has been a metric cited up and down over the years, some years being the key metric that pushed a team into the tournament, while some years being seemingly overlooked. The argument here - obviously - is that you want to put teams into the tourney who can compete/win, i.e. the committee may be reluctant to put a team with a stellar home - but dismal R/N - record into the tourney because, of course, nobody plays at home during the tourney.
| Team | Road W/L | Neutral W/L | QI-Road | QI-Neutral |
| Marquette | 5-5 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| OK State | 3-7 | 2-1 | 2-7 | 1-1 |
| Syracuse | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| USC | 6-5 | 3-1 | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| UCLA | 3-7 | 3-1 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| SMC | 10-1 | 2-2 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Baylor | 2-9 | 2-0 | 1-8 | 1-0 |
| ND | 5-7 | 2-1 | 1-6 | 1-0 |
| Alabama | 2-8 | 3-1 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Providence | 4-7 | 2-1 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Lousiville | 4-7 | 1-0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Washington | 5-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Utah | 5-6 | 2-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
Only 3 of the teams above are at least .500 in road and neutral games, but one of those is SMC who is 10-1 and 2-2 (Road/Neutral) but against Quad 1 is only 1-0 and 0-0. So that leaves USC and Marquette ahead of the rest of the group. Going one step further in looking at overall R/N against Quad 1, you really start to see USC and Marquette standing out (4-5, 3-4, respectively) along with Utah (3-4).
If anything is going to tip the tourney scales in MU's favor, it's going to be that 3-3 road record against QI. If the Committee wants to emphasize winning on the road, this is exactly what MU could hope for.
This is a great point. It highlights that pretty much everyone is guessing what the committee is going to value.
One of my concerns is that they will look at wins against top 10 or top 25 teams as a measure of teams who have shown they can beat the best. MU would not fare well if that is important.
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If OKSU, Saint Marys and Syracuse get in before mu then that will be BS
Perhaps. But if we had beaten DePaul, we'd be in. Warriors will have nobody to blame but themselves. And I'm as big an optimist and Wojo fan as anybody on this board.
#nowhining
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The Johnnies are the ultimate bid thief.
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The Johnnies are the ultimate bid thief.
But way, way, way down on the realistic scale
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Would have it have been better if Markus sat against DePaul instead of coming in off the bench? That way we could have played the injury card.
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I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.
I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.
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I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.
I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.
Lunardi almost never discuses the Big East on Espn telecasts.
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I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.
I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.
St. Mary's is ranked #20 right now. Really hard to believe a ranked team would get left out of the tournament because it lost in the conference semifinal to another totally decent team.
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St. Mary's is ranked #20 right now. Really hard to believe a ranked team would get left out of the tournament because it lost in the conference semifinal to another totally decent team.
Rankings mean absolutely nothing.
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I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.
I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.
I ran across this link today when I was looking for some more information about selection committee criteria. I see both sides of the RPI coin, but I'm definitely happy with the help our schedule is giving us this year. Gonzaga, by all accounts, is a good team this year, but RPI and Kenpom are way off from one another, and that's killing their seeding. In addition, the fact that a team like 28-4 St. Mary's is still on the bubble would be infuriating as a fan. Sure, they could try to get a harder non-con, but it's not always the easiest thing to accomplish.
https://www.slipperstillfits.com/2018/2/11/17001468/march-madness-bracket-rankings-gonzaga-bulldogs-snubbed (https://www.slipperstillfits.com/2018/2/11/17001468/march-madness-bracket-rankings-gonzaga-bulldogs-snubbed)
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Rankings mean absolutely nothing.
In the eyes of the committee, that's true, but they're still typically a pretty reliable gauge for understanding how good a team is. Right now, 3 of the projected 1 seeds are in the top 4 in the rankings, for example. Generally speaking, if a team is ranked in the top 25, they're considered a lock for the tournament. For a team to be ranked #20 in the AP or coaches' poll at year end and not make the tournament would be pretty shocking. Further, for a team to be a top 25 in KenPom and not make the tournament would have to be a historic snub.
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TCU was 29 in KenPom last year and didn’t make the tournament. And they play in a real basketball conference.
They went on to win the NIT...snubs happen
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Rankings mean absolutely nothing.
It means 65 people who follow college basketball for a living think, on average, St. Mary's is one of the best 20 teams in the country. But you're right, the results of a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living doesn't illuminate anything about the upcoming decisions to be made by...a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living.
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It means 65 people who follow college basketball for a living think, on average, St. Mary's is one of the best 20 teams in the country. But you're right, the results of a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living doesn't illuminate anything about the upcoming decisions to be made by...a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living.
Those same geniuses gave Mount Saint Mary’s 4 votes this year thinking the team was St. Mary’s. Don’t give them that much credit. Realistically we can do that job pretty easily
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In the eyes of the committee, that's true, but they're still typically a pretty reliable gauge for understanding how good a team is. Right now, 3 of the projected 1 seeds are in the top 4 in the rankings, for example. Generally speaking, if a team is ranked in the top 25, they're considered a lock for the tournament. For a team to be ranked #20 in the AP or coaches' poll at year end and not make the tournament would be pretty shocking. Further, for a team to be a top 25 in KenPom and not make the tournament would have to be a historic snub.
2004 Utah State: 22 in rankings, 25-3 record. Missed the NCAAs
2014 SMU: 23 in rankings, 23-8 record. Missed the NCAAs
If Saint Mary's losses to BYU, they won't be ranked in the top 25 anymore.
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It means 65 people who follow college basketball for a living think, on average, St. Mary's is one of the best 20 teams in the country. But you're right, the results of a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living doesn't illuminate anything about the upcoming decisions to be made by...a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living.
Certainly wouldn’t be the first time a team ranked didn’t get a bid. And being a sportswriter that covers 1 team doesn’t qualify a large number of those guys to rank teams. I think (at least certainly hope) the committee is a little better at it than Joe Smith the sports page guy from the Starksville Herald.
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They also have Loyola as the 29th best team in the nation. I would find it hard to believe they get an at-large had they not won their tournament
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They also have Loyola as the 29th best team in the nation. I would find it hard to believe they get an at-large had they not won their tournament
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They had a shot. They're 26 in RPI and 42 in KenPom. That's a reasonable team to give an at-large to.
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They had a shot. They're 26 in RPI and 42 in KenPom. That's a reasonable team to give an at-large to.
I want BYU to win to see if the committee has the balls to leave out this clearly undeserving St Mary’s team
That’s said, also runs the risk of BYU shocking Gonzaga and this garbage conference getting 3 bids
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I want BYU to win to see if the committee has the balls to leave out this clearly undeserving St Mary’s team
That’s said, also runs the risk of BYU shocking Gonzaga and this garbage conference getting 3 bids
Haha, how do you really feel? BYU is giving them all they can handle right now, up 9 with 8 minutes to play.
As bad as St. Mary's SOS is, every other metric would say they're probably in. Even if they drop this game, I still think there's a decent argument in their favor. I think our resume is way better, to be sure, but I think St. Mary's has a realistic chance.
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I want BYU to win to see if the committee has the balls to leave out this clearly undeserving St Mary’s team
That’s said, also runs the risk of BYU shocking Gonzaga and this garbage conference getting 3 bids
Yeah. Gonzaga over BYU is the dream result for us. But BYU over Gonzaga could be a nightmare. BYU up 12 with 6 mins left. SM in a ton if trouble.
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I don't remember anyone linking or referencing Warren Nolan's site when talking through stats and projections, but I've found it to be a helpful source in the last few days. I think the team scorecards are a pretty good summary that are more helpful than some of the more popular sites like ESPN or CBS Sports.
I thought some fellow Scoopers might find it useful in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live)
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BYU over St. Mary’s, so Go Zags tonight!
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SMC will be an interesting test of how the Committee values the computer metrics because that is about the only thing in its favor. Their wins in Q1 and Q2 games are very weak, as is their SOS, both OOC and overall.
Personally, I would leave them out, and it wouldn’t be close. All they’ve done is pile up wins against crappy teams without being tested by many good ones. It doesn’t look like they even try to schedule decent teams for their OOC games.
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Lunardi says they'd still be in...
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970902354907234304
And says he doesn't think MU gets in going 1-1
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970903112629268480
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We are huge Gonzaga fans tonight.
I keep going back to Lunardi dropping us after we went 3-1 with Creighton and Seton Hall road wins I believe. If one win against Gonzaga on the road is enough for SMC, those two wins should be enough for MU. It just seems like these bracket guys aren’t being consistent and are kind of taking some stabs in the dark and coming up with some interesting logic.
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We are huge Gonzaga fans tonight.
I keep going back to Lunardi dropping us after we went 3-1 with Creighton and Seton Hall road wins I believe. If one win against Gonzaga on the road is enough for SMC, those two wins should be enough for MU. It just seems like these bracket guys aren’t being consistent and are kind of taking some stabs in the dark and coming up with some interesting logic.
I hope you're right, going to be an interesting week. Let's take care of business Wednesday.
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Interesting here... In KenPom Notre Dame (sucks) is 27. St Mary’s is 29. Penn state is 30. Baylor is 33 and Louisville is 34. IMO none of those teams are tourney teams. Hoping KenPom doesn’t play a huge factor this year
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If the committee values what they always trumpet as their key criteria, St. Mary’s should be out. Outside of @Gonzaga, which is a very nice win, their top wins are BYU(2x), New Mexico State, Harvard and UNC Asheville. At it gets really ugly really fast.
They didn’t play anybody. Didn’t play outside of Cali in noncon. Lost to both high majors they played, one decent team and one bad team. Their resume just isn’t good at all. That said, if I had to bet, I say they’re still in.
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Yeah. Gonzaga over BYU is the dream result for us. But BYU over Gonzaga could be a nightmare. BYU up 12 with 6 mins left. SM in a ton if trouble.
St Mary's resume is incredibly weak. It was rather ironic that by losing to BYU, it improved BYU's RPI enough so that SMC's previous road win at BYU is now a second Q1 win for them.
Even still, 2 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins, 24 combined Q3/4 wins (15 in Q4!). And not only that, they turned down chances to play quality mid and high majors, so the lack of heft is their own fault.
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St Mary's resume is incredibly weak. It was rather ironic that by losing to BYU, it improved BYU's RPI enough so that SMC's previous road win at BYU is now a second Q1 win for them.
Even still, 2 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins, 24 combined Q3/4 wins (15 in Q4!). And not only that, they turned down chances to play quality mid and high majors, so the lack of heft is their own fault.
Do you know what games they turned down? I feel like we always hear mid-majors complain about how hard scheduling can be, so if they're passing on games, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.
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Do you know what games they turned down? I feel like we always hear mid-majors complain about how hard scheduling can be, so if they're passing on games, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.
A lot of mid-majors pass on buy games on principal. I can't find the article, but one talked about how the Missouri Valley is trying to get its members to not accept those types of arrangements and how it may have cost Illinois State an at-large last year.
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Do you know what games they turned down? I feel like we always hear mid-majors complain about how hard scheduling can be, so if they're passing on games, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.
They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.
Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.
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They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.
Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.
Then they don't deserve to make the tournament
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They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.
Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.
Those were the ones I was thinking of. The proposed URI series started as a home and home offer. When SMC balked at that, URI suggested having a two game neutral court set and they still said no. They have no one to blame but themselves for scheduling. I hope they get left out, because I can't find any way to argue their resume ahead of a team like Marquette.
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They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.
Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.
With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid. I hope the committee is aware.
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With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid. I hope the committee is aware.
They are, and I'm not going to be even a little shocked if SMC doesn't make it. The committee puts a very strong emphasis on play tough teams, which is why MU's SoS is a very critical piece in our favor. SMC is gonna get Illinios State'd this year.
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With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid. I hope the committee is aware.
I would imagine they are. If not, they're certainly aware that their 3rd best win is New Mexico State, and 4th best win UNC Ashville, and 5th best win is Harvard, and 6th best win is UC Irvine, and 7th best win is ABD, and 15 of their wins are of the quad 4 variety.
You get the point. St. Mary's should be in the NIT. But I'll believe it when I see it.
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Lunardi says they'd still be in...
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970902354907234304
And says he doesn't think MU gets in going 1-1
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970903112629268480
Not what we wanted to hear, but can't say i disagree with him. As much as i would enjoy making the NCAA this year, I also wonder if the NIT would be a better option for this young/inconsistent team.
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One other thing that gives me solace is having Bruce Rasmussen as the chair. There's no team in the country that owes Marquette as much as Creighton. Without MU, Creighton would not be in the Big East. No way, no how, full stop.
If anyone has reason to look out for our best interests, it's Rasmussen. Not only because it benefits the league, but because we are the reason his own school is where it is today.
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One other thing that gives me solace is having Bruce Rasmussen as the chair. There's no team in the country that owes Marquette as much as Creighton. Without MU, Creighton would not be in the Big East. No way, no how, full stop.
If anyone has reason to look out for our best interests, it's Rasmussen. Not only because it benefits the league, but because we are the reason his own school is where it is today.
My understanding is he cannot say anything other than answer direct questions regarding teams in his league
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One other thing that gives me solace is having Bruce Rasmussen as the chair. There's no team in the country that owes Marquette as much as Creighton. Without MU, Creighton would not be in the Big East. No way, no how, full stop.
If anyone has reason to look out for our best interests, it's Rasmussen. Not only because it benefits the league, but because we are the reason his own school is where it is today.
But, he needs to recuse himself re BE teams?
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If the committee values what they always trumpet as their key criteria, St. Mary’s should be out. Outside of @Gonzaga, which is a very nice win, their top wins are BYU(2x), New Mexico State, Harvard and UNC Asheville. At it gets really ugly really fast.
They didn’t play anybody. Didn’t play outside of Cali in noncon. Lost to both high majors they played, one decent team and one bad team. Their resume just isn’t good at all. That said, if I had to bet, I say they’re still in.
This. At least in the past two years, the Committee chair has come right out and said that they want to reward those schools who challenge themselves, and that applies to majors and mid-majors. Regarding Syracuse's snub last year, Hollis' made it a point to say "their non-conference schedule wasn't that difficult."
Incidentally, Hollis also cited - with regards to Syracuse - the Committee consideration of "how did [teams] do against teams in the tournament, and how did [teams] do against teams on the road."
Assuming last year's philosophies carry over, SMC has a small, but solid record, against the projected field. But two of those games were against Gonzaga, and the other two are against auto-qualifiers. MU, on the other hand, doesn't look so hot in a head-to-head comparison....
SMC vs. Projected 68: 3-1
MU vs. Projected 68: 6-9
But here's the kicker (which hopefully the committee catches).... four of MU's losses against the projected field are to #1 seeds. In other words, excluding X and Nova (who most teams lose to) MU is 6-5 against the projected field. Of those 13 bubble teams I mentioned earlier, nobody else played projected #1 seeds four times (except Providence, who went 2-2).
So at the risk of sounding like a broken record, how closely the committee adheres to the general philosophy of the quotes by Hollis above are MU's best hope for getting an at-large (outside of beating Nova in NYC, of course).
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Not what we wanted to hear, but can't say i disagree with him. As much as i would enjoy making the NCAA this year, I also wonder if the NIT would be a better option for this young/inconsistent team.
'twould not be
NCAA > NIT 100% of the time
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My understanding is he cannot say anything other than answer direct questions regarding teams in his league
But could he trash teams like SMC & 'Cuse pointing out where they're flawed in areas that MU shines?
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My understanding is he cannot say anything other than answer direct questions regarding teams in his league
Perhaps, but he can certainly influence what metrics the committee is going to focus upon when discussing other teams. This is not to say that he's only going to talk up metrics that are favorable to MU in the hopes of setting the stage for when MU comes up for discussion, but if - along the lines of my previous post - Rasmussen wants to steer the discussion to R/N records and SOS for every other team, this would - in theory - indirectly benefit MU when it's their turn for discussion.
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With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid. I hope the committee is aware.
Yes but does the committee take into consideration woulda coulda shoulda’s?
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But, he needs to recuse himself re BE teams?
Only has to recuse himself regarding Creighton, and as others have noted, there are ways to give credit to a team without mentioning them directly. Speaking specifically about things like playing a challenging schedule, having Q1/2 wins, proving you can win away from home, those are all things he could stress that would make us shine without having to even mention our program.
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Lunardi just came out with "Behind the Bracket: What each bubble team needs to do." http://es.pn/2HdkpvF
Says we need to beat DePaul and Nova. Anything less than that won't be enough.
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Lunardi just came out with "Behind the Bracket: What each bubble team needs to do." http://es.pn/2HdkpvF
Says we need to beat DePaul and Nova. Anything less than that won't be enough.
I wonder how many spots he’s allocating for those teams. Almost all of them are out unless they pull an upset.
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I wonder how many spots he’s allocating for those teams. Almost all of them are out unless they pull an upset.
Yah...they gotta fill the field. If all of Lunardi's stuff held true, I think they'd be more than a handful short of teams. I think the point is what each team needs to feel their bid is secured regardless of what else happens around championship week.
Marquette needs to beat Depaul and Villanova to get into the dance with 100% certainty. We all know this. MU needs to beat Depaul to have a chance, but it may require some help elsewhere....perhaps a coin flip, perhaps a little better odds than a coinflip. A loss to Depaul and they're going to be out in all likelihood.
Its really that simple.
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I wonder how many spots he’s allocating for those teams. Almost all of them are out unless they pull an upset.
According to his own bracketology, Florida State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, ASU, Baylor, Texas, Providence, USC, UCLA, and Alabama are all in.
In other words, Lunardi has listed the 19 teams battling for 10 remaining spots. MTSU is a potential buster, however... so if they lose the conference final, it's likely only 9 remaining spots.
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According to his own bracketology, Florida State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, ASU, Baylor, Texas, Providence, USC, UCLA, and Alabama are all in.
In other words, Lunardi has listed the 19 teams battling for 10 remaining spots. MTSU is a potential buster, however... so if they lose the conference final, it's likely only 9 remaining spots.
I count 12/20.
Plus he's not including St. Mary's, who is done, but could be left out adding another open spot. He's also not including Penn State and Nebraska as possible teams, but realistically, those teams aren't getting a bid.
That list included all 6 of his 11 seeds, 3/4 10 seeds (no St. Mary's), two 9 seeds (OK and FL State - both probably safe), and one 12 seed AQ (MTSU).
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1) Lunardi is not a committee member. He historically performs middle of the pack among bracketologists. He's only well know because ESPN gave him a platform before anyone else.
2) Most bracket predictors, including Lunardi, are biased towards homeostatsis. St. Mary's won 12 games in a row before winning at Gonzaga, then won 6 more before losing to Gonzaga. Two were against BYU, the rest sub-125 rpi. But people made up their mind after the Gonzaga win that, barring total collapse, St. Mary's was a tourney team barring a total collapse. A loss to Gonzaga and a road loss to San Fran weren't enough to change their mind.
3) The committee, however, is largely starting from scratch. Other than the top 16, they have no bias towards who was in and who was out. They don't have to change their mind and admit they were wrong, so they will analyze teams differently than someone doing a running bracket.
4) Other teams considered "in" by Bracketmatrix, like Arizona State and Alabama, are also benefitting from this bias. Arizona St has been mediocre in the Pac 12 and Alabama has lost 5 in a row tourney and bubble teams. But people have a hard time changing their mind. They may or may not make it, but I think they're are some overrated teams in the BM field.
5) Conversely, teams considered "out" also suffer from this bias. When MU was 4-7 after the Providence loss, the masses made up their mind that MU was "out" and it would take drastic new info to change their mind. While a sweep of Creighton and win at Seton Hall were nice, they weren't Earth shattering to those who had already made up their mind. Marquette might be in far better shape than we think.
6) I'm also working on an RPI post that will have to wait. If you look at raw RPI and compare it to RPI rank, there are some interesting observations to be made. Hoping to get that up later tonight.
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1) Lunardi is not a committee member. He historically performs middle of the pack among bracketologists. He's only well know because ESPN gave him a platform before anyone else.
2) Most bracket predictors, including Lunardi, are biased towards homeostatsis. St. Mary's won 12 games in a row before winning at Gonzaga, then won 6 more before losing to Gonzaga. Two were against BYU, the rest sub-125 rpi. But people made up their mind after the Gonzaga win that, barring total collapse, St. Mary's was a tourney team barring a total collapse. A loss to Gonzaga and a road loss to San Fran weren't enough to change their mind.
3) The committee, however, is largely starting from scratch. Other than the top 16, they have no bias towards who was in and who was out. They don't have to change their mind and admit they were wrong, so they will analyze teams differently than someone doing a running bracket.
4) Other teams considered "in" by Bracketmatrix, like Arizona State and Alabama, are also benefitting from this bias. Arizona St has been mediocre in the Pac 12 and Alabama has lost 5 in a row tourney and bubble teams. But people have a hard time changing their mind. They may or may not make it, but I think they're are some overrated teams in the BM field.
5) Conversely, teams considered "out" also suffer from this bias. When MU was 4-7 after the Providence loss, the masses made up their mind that MU was "out" and it would take drastic new info to change their mind. While a sweep of Creighton and win at Seton Hall were nice, they weren't Earth shattering to those who had already made up their mind. Marquette might be in far better shape than we think.
6) I'm also working on an RPI post that will have to wait. If you look at raw RPI and compare it to RPI rank, there are some interesting observations to be made. Hoping to get that up later tonight.
This is a very good post and is very important to remember.
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Where does the big East rank among conferences?
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Where does the big East rank among conferences?
It is 2nd in RPI, just behind B12, and just ahead of ACC and SEC.
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1) Lunardi is not a committee member. He historically performs middle of the pack among bracketologists. He's only well know because ESPN gave him a platform before anyone else.
2) Most bracket predictors, including Lunardi, are biased towards homeostatsis. St. Mary's won 12 games in a row before winning at Gonzaga, then won 6 more before losing to Gonzaga. Two were against BYU, the rest sub-125 rpi. But people made up their mind after the Gonzaga win that, barring total collapse, St. Mary's was a tourney team barring a total collapse. A loss to Gonzaga and a road loss to San Fran weren't enough to change their mind.
3) The committee, however, is largely starting from scratch. Other than the top 16, they have no bias towards who was in and who was out. They don't have to change their mind and admit they were wrong, so they will analyze teams differently than someone doing a running bracket.
4) Other teams considered "in" by Bracketmatrix, like Arizona State and Alabama, are also benefitting from this bias. Arizona St has been mediocre in the Pac 12 and Alabama has lost 5 in a row tourney and bubble teams. But people have a hard time changing their mind. They may or may not make it, but I think they're are some overrated teams in the BM field.
5) Conversely, teams considered "out" also suffer from this bias. When MU was 4-7 after the Providence loss, the masses made up their mind that MU was "out" and it would take drastic new info to change their mind. While a sweep of Creighton and win at Seton Hall were nice, they weren't Earth shattering to those who had already made up their mind. Marquette might be in far better shape than we think.
6) I'm also working on an RPI post that will have to wait. If you look at raw RPI and compare it to RPI rank, there are some interesting observations to be made. Hoping to get that up later tonight.
This is where my optimism comes in. In the eyes of the prognosticators, it’s been an uphill climb to get back in the tourney. For the committee, they will more or less see the resume as a whole.
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Dance card, which has over the last two years become my go-to because of a lack of "mind changing bias", currently has us as the 3rd to last team in with a 100% chance of making LAST years field with our current resume.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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We need the Warriors to beat DePaul. If we would've just taken care of business in Chicago we wouldn't have to be worrying. Beat the demons tomorrow and give ourselves a chance. Beat Nova and we ought to be a lock. But it all comes down to tomorrow. Beat DePaul and we will have a fighting chance come selection sunday.
Beat DePaul. Just win, baby!
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I know they are likely safely in, but boy, there just isn't a lot on Butler's resume that screams "tourney team". That 3-7 road record sticks out like a sore thumb..as does their 3-10 record vs. Q1 teams. Louisville's record is the same against Q1, road record very similar...heck all the numbers are similar between those 2..Louisville is thought of as a bubble team, and Butler is considered safely in..the ONLY thing in Butler's favor is their win against Nova. If they lose to Creighton Thursday night, I'm just not sure I see where Butler deserves to be in ahead of some other teams on the bubble.
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1) Lunardi is not a committee member. He historically performs middle of the pack among bracketologists. He's only well know because ESPN gave him a platform before anyone else.
2) Most bracket predictors, including Lunardi, are biased towards homeostatsis. St. Mary's won 12 games in a row before winning at Gonzaga, then won 6 more before losing to Gonzaga. Two were against BYU, the rest sub-125 rpi. But people made up their mind after the Gonzaga win that, barring total collapse, St. Mary's was a tourney team barring a total collapse. A loss to Gonzaga and a road loss to San Fran weren't enough to change their mind.
3) The committee, however, is largely starting from scratch. Other than the top 16, they have no bias towards who was in and who was out. They don't have to change their mind and admit they were wrong, so they will analyze teams differently than someone doing a running bracket.
4) Other teams considered "in" by Bracketmatrix, like Arizona State and Alabama, are also benefitting from this bias. Arizona St has been mediocre in the Pac 12 and Alabama has lost 5 in a row tourney and bubble teams. But people have a hard time changing their mind. They may or may not make it, but I think they're are some overrated teams in the BM field.
5) Conversely, teams considered "out" also suffer from this bias. When MU was 4-7 after the Providence loss, the masses made up their mind that MU was "out" and it would take drastic new info to change their mind. While a sweep of Creighton and win at Seton Hall were nice, they weren't Earth shattering to those who had already made up their mind. Marquette might be in far better shape than we think.
6) I'm also working on an RPI post that will have to wait. If you look at raw RPI and compare it to RPI rank, there are some interesting observations to be made. Hoping to get that up later tonight.
Excellent observations and analysis,but point 5 seems a little confusing to me-...weren’t earth shattering to those who already made up their mind, but then we aren’t in as bad a shape as we think? I was hoping the we aren’t in as bad a shape as we think but the previous statement to that seems to undermine that. Not trying to be over critical, just a clarification cuz I like your points👍
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The difference between the last eight in and first eight out is very tight.
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Excellent observations and analysis,but point 5 seems a little confusing to me-...weren’t earth shattering to those who already made up their mind, but then we aren’t in as bad a shape as we think? I was hoping the we aren’t in as bad a shape as we think but the previous statement to that seems to undermine that. Not trying to be over critical, just a clarification cuz I like your points👍
I think all he is saying is that the bracket prognosticators don't change their mind easily. That the barriers for one team to enter and another to exit are higher than the committee, which doesn't put together a bracket weekly like the bracketologists do.
I think the real question is what data the Committee weighs more heavily to make its decisions. Because TallTitan is correct, there is a case to be made for a bunch of teams objectively, and someone is going to feel screwed in the end.
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It is 2nd in RPI, just behind B12, and just ahead of ACC and SEC.
This is what annoys me, that despite the BE having a higher conference RPI people are stating teams with sub .500 conference records from lesser RPI conferences should get in. What??
Additionally, the BE needs to come up with a metric that shows hiw much more difficult it us to play each team in your conference twice, versus pkaying 75% of the teams in your conference only once.
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This is what annoys me, that despite the BE having a higher conference RPI people are stating teams with sub .500 conference records from lesser RPI conferences should get in. What??
Additionally, the BE needs to come up with a metric that shows hiw much more difficult it us to play each team in your conference twice, versus pkaying 75% of the teams in your conference only once.
Because conference record doesn't matter.
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Dance card, which has over the last two years become my go-to because of a lack of "mind changing bias", currently has us as the 3rd to last team in with a 100% chance of making LAST years field with our current resume.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Honestly, this looks about right to me. I'd sub Arizona State for Alabama at this point. But other than that I think it looks about how I'd put it.
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Because conference record doesn't matter.
I understand why it doesn't, and I know it won't change. But I kind of think it should. In a double round robin conference, if non-con is equal, a 10-8 team should be ahead of a 9-9 in the pecking order. It shouldn't matter how the wins or losses come.
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This is what annoys me, that despite the BE having a higher conference RPI people are stating teams with sub .500 conference records from lesser RPI conferences should get in. What??
Additionally, the BE needs to come up with a metric that shows hiw much more difficult it us to play each team in your conference twice, versus pkaying 75% of the teams in your conference only once.
Is this proven out anywhere? In a conference like the old Big East where we only played select teams twice per year, some years the schedule is harder than others, but isn't that just reflected in SOS? I'm not sure there needs to be any other stat included.
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I understand why it doesn't, and I know it won't change. But I kind of think it should. In a double round robin conference, if non-con is equal, a 10-8 team should be ahead of a 9-9 in the pecking order. It shouldn't matter how the wins or losses come.
It doesn't matter because of $. Giving a conference advantage for a balanced conference schedule hurts the football conferences and at the end of the day football matters.
It's an interesting argument on conference strength. You could argue the top of the Big East is the best in the country, but that the bottom 2/3 teams are among the worst in the country. So do you reward a conference that is average/mediorce through out (looking at you B10 and SEC) or do reward the conferences with the tougher schedules. Biggest issue I will have with this committee is if they put teams with losing conference records in over MU, I just don't know how you do the mind math on that. If we lost @Providence and @Seton Hall but own @Villanova would we be in consideration versus where we are now?
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Is this proven out anywhere? In a conference like the old Big East where we only played select teams twice per year, some years the schedule is harder than others, but isn't that just reflected in SOS? I'm not sure there needs to be any other stat included.
It's not a thing....it just means some teams player harder schedules in conference than other teams where as in the Big East all of our schedules are equally hard.
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This all is interesting stuff. Thanks, folks, for the discussion.
I'm having a difficult time believing they'll leave St. Mary's out. It's the kind of small-school team many whine gets the shaft, and it has history. I know they have to go with metrics, but if it comes down to a "mental coin flip," I think they get extra points.
I'd love to be wrong!
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It's an interesting argument on conference strength. You could argue the top of the Big East is the best in the country, but that the bottom 2/3 teams are among the worst in the country.
By what metric? There isn't much out there that will tell you Depaul, St. Johns and Georgetown are "among the worst in the country", even out of just the P6 schools. Every BE team is in the Kenpom top 100. No other conference can say that.
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By what metric? There isn't much out there that will tell you Depaul, St. Johns and Georgetown are "among the worst in the country", even out of just the P6 schools. Every BE team is in the Kenpom top 100. No other conference can say that.
Yeah I suppose familiarity breeds contempt. It's really hard to argue that being 7th in the Big East is easier than being 4th or 5th in the B10 or SEC. I mean those conference have so many teams and a fair number of garbage ones it's probably easier to be 5th in the B10 then 7th in the Big East.
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I understand why it doesn't, and I know it won't change. But I kind of think it should. In a double round robin conference, if non-con is equal, a 10-8 team should be ahead of a 9-9 in the pecking order. It shouldn't matter how the wins or losses come.
Actually I don't think it should. I am leery about incorporating any conference-based metric into the equation.
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Actually I don't think it should. I am leery about incorporating any conference-based metric into the equation.
Especially with the unbalanced conferences which have no round robin schedule.
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1) Lunardi is not a committee member. He historically performs middle of the pack among bracketologists. He's only well know because ESPN gave him a platform before anyone else.
2) Most bracket predictors, including Lunardi, are biased towards homeostatsis. St. Mary's won 12 games in a row before winning at Gonzaga, then won 6 more before losing to Gonzaga. Two were against BYU, the rest sub-125 rpi. But people made up their mind after the Gonzaga win that, barring total collapse, St. Mary's was a tourney team barring a total collapse. A loss to Gonzaga and a road loss to San Fran weren't enough to change their mind.
3) The committee, however, is largely starting from scratch. Other than the top 16, they have no bias towards who was in and who was out. They don't have to change their mind and admit they were wrong, so they will analyze teams differently than someone doing a running bracket.
4) Other teams considered "in" by Bracketmatrix, like Arizona State and Alabama, are also benefitting from this bias. Arizona St has been mediocre in the Pac 12 and Alabama has lost 5 in a row tourney and bubble teams. But people have a hard time changing their mind. They may or may not make it, but I think they're are some overrated teams in the BM field.
5) Conversely, teams considered "out" also suffer from this bias. When MU was 4-7 after the Providence loss, the masses made up their mind that MU was "out" and it would take drastic new info to change their mind. While a sweep of Creighton and win at Seton Hall were nice, they weren't Earth shattering to those who had already made up their mind. Marquette might be in far better shape than we think.
6) I'm also working on an RPI post that will have to wait. If you look at raw RPI and compare it to RPI rank, there are some interesting observations to be made. Hoping to get that up later tonight.
This is a great post. Very well articulated. Explains a lot of why I'm more bullish on our chances. I have done regular brackets in the past and think sometimes doing a regular bracket gets the bracketologists to the point where they are so in the weeds they don't see stuff that's pretty clear when you step back and look at it.
People scoff at our Seton Hall, Providence, and Creighton wins, but how many of our fellow bubble teams have 5 better wins? Those supposedly don't move the dial but we're supposed to be impressed by teams like MTSU, St Mary's, Louisville, Texas, K-State?
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Here's a quirky stat. Out of the 4 B1G teams considered NCAA locks (Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue) only Purdue & Michigan played twice in the regular season.
That means those teams combined to play 7 conference games against each other. Add Michigan's games vs MSU & Purdue, that is 9 total.
Now, look at the Big East. Anywhere from 5-7 bids are possible. With the double round robin format, each BE tournament team plays between 8-12 conference games against tournament teams.
Let that sink in. One BE tournament team plays more conference games vs tournament teams than all 4 B1G tournament teams combined.
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Here's a quirky stat. Out of the 4 B1G teams considered NCAA locks (Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue) only Purdue & Michigan played twice in the regular season.
That means those teams combined to play 7 conference games against each other. Add Michigan's games vs MSU & Purdue, that is 9 total.
Now, look at the Big East. Anywhere from 5-7 bids are possible. With the double round robin format, each BE tournament team plays between 8-12 conference games against tournament teams.
Let that sink in. One BE tournament team plays more conference games vs tournament teams than all 4 B1G tournament teams combined.
Nicely done.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/iuXnKvwKtuqNq/giphy.gif)
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PITT is so bad. You almost feel bad for those guys.
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I count 12/20.
Plus he's not including St. Mary's, who is done, but could be left out adding another open spot. He's also not including Penn State and Nebraska as possible teams, but realistically, those teams aren't getting a bid.
That list included all 6 of his 11 seeds, 3/4 10 seeds (no St. Mary's), two 9 seeds (OK and FL State - both probably safe), and one 12 seed AQ (MTSU).
I'm nitpicking, but I'm trying to narrow down the bubble for myself by not including teams whose chances seem really slim, like Nebraska, Penn State, Washington, LSU, and Mississippi State. I'm also not including teams that Lunardi and most others think are probably in even if they lose their first round tournament games like Kansas State, Florida State, and Oklahoma.
When I do that I get a 15 team bubble of St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Texas, Baylor, USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse, and 9 available spots. One more spot would open up for the remaining 14 teams if Middle Tennessee would remove itself from the at large pool by winning the CUSA tournament. I will add and delete teams from my lists as they play their way out or other teams play themselves into the picture with runs in the conference tournaments.
The problem with Lunardi's statements about what a team needs to get in are (1) they are just his opinions and not necessarily reflective of the Committee's thinking, and (2) it falls apart if all or most of the teams do what he says they have to do or a high percentage of them fail. There aren' t that many early head to head bubble matchups that would make this impossible.
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I'm nitpicking, but I'm trying to narrow down the bubble for myself by not including teams whose chances seem really slim, like Nebraska, Penn State, Washington, LSU, and Mississippi State. I'm also not including teams that Lunardi and most others think are probably in even if they lose their first round tournament games like Kansas State, Florida State, and Oklahoma.
When I do that I get a 15 team bubble of St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Texas, Baylor, USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse, and 9 available spots. One more spot would open up for the remaining 14 teams if Middle Tennessee would remove itself from the at large pool by winning the CUSA tournament. I will add and delete teams from my lists as they play their way out or other teams play themselves into the picture with runs in the conference tournaments.
The problem with Lunardi's statements about what a team needs to get in are (1) they are just his opinions and not necessarily reflective of the Committee's thinking, and (2) it falls apart if all or most of the teams do what he says they have to do or a high percentage of them fail. There aren' t that many early head to head bubble matchups that would make this impossible.
Yep, sounds about right.
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Pitt down 12 at half to ND. Looks like their bubble will live at least another day. Lets pop it tomorrow
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Here's a quirky stat. Out of the 4 B1G teams considered NCAA locks (Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue) only Purdue & Michigan played twice in the regular season.
That means those teams combined to play 7 conference games against each other. Add Michigan's games vs MSU & Purdue, that is 9 total.
Now, look at the Big East. Anywhere from 5-7 bids are possible. With the double round robin format, each BE tournament team plays between 8-12 conference games against tournament teams.
Let that sink in. One BE tournament team plays more conference games vs tournament teams than all 4 B1G tournament teams combined.
This stat is amazing. The Big East needs to publicize stuff like this to lobby for our teams.
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Here's a quirky stat. Out of the 4 B1G teams considered NCAA locks (Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue) only Purdue & Michigan played twice in the regular season.
That means those teams combined to play 7 conference games against each other. Add Michigan's games vs MSU & Purdue, that is 9 total.
Now, look at the Big East. Anywhere from 5-7 bids are possible. With the double round robin format, each BE tournament team plays between 8-12 conference games against tournament teams.
Let that sink in. One BE tournament team plays more conference games vs tournament teams than all 4 B1G tournament teams combined.
Michigan played Ohio State twice too. One of the games was in early December as part of the B10's goofy schedule designed to finish early to play in NYC. So, including the conference tournament, Michigan played 7 games against the top 3 in the conference, winning 4 of them. With their conference tournament win over Nebraska, they defeated every one of the other 13 teams in the conference, which isn't easy to do with that kind of imbalanced schedule.
Here's another quirky Michigan in the BET fact. In the last 3 years Michigan has been seeded no higher than 5th (this year) but they have knocked off the number 1 seed every year.
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I think all he is saying is that the bracket prognosticators don't change their mind easily. That the barriers for one team to enter and another to exit are higher than the committee, which doesn't put together a bracket weekly like the bracketologists do.
I think the real question is what data the Committee weighs more heavily to make its decisions. Because TallTitan is correct, there is a case to be made for a bunch of teams objectively, and someone is going to feel screwed in the end.
Ok, the prognosticators, but let’s hope the guys who actually make the final decisions can make a better overall assessment as opposed to having certain moments stuck in their heads
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ND in the tourney would be a travesty
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Thanks, I missed that Ohio St vs Michigan December tilt. So change the numbers to 8 & 10.
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ND in the tourney would be a travesty
From the "we hate ND" perspective yes, from the committee perspective I totally disagree. With Bonzie back I think they have a clear cut case for inclusion.
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ND leads Pitt by 3 with just over a minute.
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From the "we hate ND" perspective yes, from the committee perspective I totally disagree. With Bonzie back I think they have a clear cut case for inclusion.
They lost to Indiana and ball state while getting waxed by MSU
No. Not a worthy inclusion when you view their resume.
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They are going to narrowly escape a loss to an 0-18 Pitt team. ND is trash.
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They dont look very good today,but they'll beat Pitt
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They lost to Indiana and ball state while getting waxed by MSU
No. Not a worthy inclusion when you view their resume.
Lost to Indiana and Ball State WITH Colson.
I think it would be an absolute joke in ND made the tourney unless they rattle off several huge wins in the ACCT.
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Lost to Indiana and Ball State WITH Colson.
I think it would be an absolute joke in ND made the tourney unless they rattle off several huge wins in the ACCT.
Yup that’s what I meant.
Really hope if they end up beating VT that isn’t viewed as enough.
Would be nuts
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ND may get a bid, but based our respective resumes today, they should not get a bid before us, which is all I care about. If they play like they did today against VT tomorrow they will lose and their bubble will likely pop.
They have to fill the field, as long as we get in, I don't care who gets in ahead or behind us. That being said, ND sucks.
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From the "we hate ND" perspective yes, from the committee perspective I totally disagree. With Bonzie back I think they have a clear cut case for inclusion.
Pretty sure injuries are not considered by the selection committee. Too bad for ND because their current resume does not warrant inclusion.
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I wanted Pitt to win, but I love that they were 0-19 in ACC play since them and Syracuse destroyed the old Big East.
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PITT is so bad. You almost feel bad for those guys.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXofKS3UQAAibPs.jpg:large)
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Pretty sure injuries are not considered by the selection committee. Too bad for ND because their current resume does not warrant inclusion.
They 100% do consider it
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Everyone makes good points on how analytical this process is, and how the Committee considers one thing but not other things, but also remember that the Committee is made up of humans, all of whom are capable (some might even say culpable) of inserting bias into their lists. This will mostly come into play on the bubble. ND is a good example - lots of folks thinking, "well they weren't very good without Colton but now Colton is back, lots of ND fans travel for the team," etc. Another good example is Louisville - what a great story to tell, losing Bowen and Coach Pitino and still toughing it out to make the tourney. St. Mary's - can't just let the major conference teams dominate, they beat Gonzaga, etc. etc. This is why we think results are nonsensical at times.
What stories does Marquette have that could subtly sway committee members' minds when they are making decisions on the bubble? Markus Howard's 52 point game? Team 3 point percentage (4th) or free throw percentage (3rd)? Overall shooting; "The big three?" None of these are as big as some of the personal stories above, but what sets us apart from the other bubble teams that isn't metric-driven?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXofKS3UQAAibPs.jpg:large)
At least they hired a guy with high major experience instead of going with a top assistant.
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Everyone makes good points on how analytical this process is, and how the Committee considers one thing but not other things, but also remember that the Committee is made up of humans, all of whom are capable (some might even say culpable) of inserting bias into their lists. This will mostly come into play on the bubble. ND is a good example - lots of folks thinking, "well they weren't very good without Colton but now Colton is back, lots of ND fans travel for the team," etc. Another good example is Louisville - what a great story to tell, losing Bowen and Coach Pitino and still toughing it out to make the tourney. St. Mary's - can't just let the major conference teams dominate, they beat Gonzaga, etc. etc. This is why we think results are nonsensical at times.
What stories does Marquette have that could subtly sway committee members' minds when they are making decisions on the bubble? Markus Howard's 52 point game? Team 3 point percentage (4th) or free throw percentage (3rd)? Overall shooting; "The big three?" None of these are as big as some of the personal stories above, but what sets us apart from the other bubble teams that isn't metric-driven?
How about excitement. More people are gonna tune into a game they don't care about if it's in the 90s and both teams have players going off for 30+. That's a lot more likely with us (whether you consider thay good or bad) than with other teams mentioned. Offense draws the casual fan, see the NBA, our offense coupled with our defense will make games a lot more entertaining to random people tuning in.
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Everyone makes good points on how analytical this process is, and how the Committee considers one thing but not other things, but also remember that the Committee is made up of humans, all of whom are capable (some might even say culpable) of inserting bias into their lists. This will mostly come into play on the bubble. ND is a good example - lots of folks thinking, "well they weren't very good without Colton but now Colton is back, lots of ND fans travel for the team," etc. Another good example is Louisville - what a great story to tell, losing Bowen and Coach Pitino and still toughing it out to make the tourney. St. Mary's - can't just let the major conference teams dominate, they beat Gonzaga, etc. etc. This is why we think results are nonsensical at times.
What stories does Marquette have that could subtly sway committee members' minds when they are making decisions on the bubble? Markus Howard's 52 point game? Team 3 point percentage (4th) or free throw percentage (3rd)? Overall shooting; "The big three?" None of these are as big as some of the personal stories above, but what sets us apart from the other bubble teams that isn't metric-driven?
Eh, no one is looking for a redemption story from Louisville. Let’s give it 5 years.
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So unimpressed by the ACC today. Yes, I know it's the bottom teams.
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So unimpressed by the ACC today. Yes, I know it's the bottom teams.
Syracuse is taking it to Wake Forest right now, but man Wake Forest looks bad. I think I’d take DePaul against them head to head.
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Looks like Wake rallied to get within 6 at the half. Fingers crossed.
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Despite what other teams do, I dont think MU gets in without winning 2 in BET. Need that signature win and I think we need 20 wins minimum.
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Despite what other teams do, I dont think MU gets in without winning 2 in BET. Need that signature win and I think we need 20 wins minimum.
This is not true. Other teams results have a very large influence on our tournament chances. That's why we have a bubble watch, and paint touches has a daily bubble update.
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This is not true. Other teams results have a very large influence on our tournament chances. That's why we have a bubble watch, and paint touches has a daily bubble update.
Look, I want to be in the tournament as much or more than anyone, but...It doesn't make me feel very good that we are rooting for other teams to lose so MU can essentially back their way in...they had plenty of chances to earn their way in, and didn't do it, so if they don't end up getting in, It's not because so and so kept them out, it's because they kept themselves out, by not beating DePaul a week and a half ago..further I can't wait to get back to the days where we don't even have to worry about the bubble and when the season starts only have to worry about seeding.
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Look, I want to be in the tournament as much or more than anyone, but...It doesn't make me feel very good that we are rooting for other teams to lose so MU can essentially back their way in...they had plenty of chances to earn their way in, and didn't do it, so if they don't end up getting in, It's not because so and so kept them out, it's because they kept themselves out, by not beating DePaul a week and a half ago..further I can't wait to get back to the days where we don't even have to worry about the bubble and when the season starts only have to worry about seeding.
Maybe so....but it is a historically strong bubble this year. As dance card pointed out, a team with Marquette's resume would have gotten into a 100% of tournaments since the field expanded to 68. Marquette has done enough to get into the tournament in any other year. So a year ago, two years ago, three years ago woe wouldn't have been having a bubble conversation, we'd be having a seeding conversation.
So no, I don't think we are "backing our way into the tournament." I think we are in a very competitive year and will have earned our bid if we make it.
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Or we could have beaten DePaul and lost at Providence in OT.......or beaten Providencecat home but lost to Georgetown on the road......
We are right where we were supposed to be this season......young team that was picked to be on the bubble and finish 7th in the league......that's where we ended up.
Hopefully we make it in......but as you said if we don't it won't be an injustice.
Lots or worthy teams this season.......some are going to be left out.
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Maybe so....but it is a historically strong bubble this year. As dance card pointed out, a team with Marquette's resume would have gotten into a 100% of tournaments since the field expanded to 68. Marquette has done enough to get into the tournament in any other year. So a year ago, two years ago, three years ago woe wouldn't have been having a bubble conversation, we'd be having a seeding conversation.
So no, I don't think we are "backing our way into the tournament." I think we are in a very competitive year and will have earned our bid if we make it.
But that's my point...even if this were two or three years ago, and their resume was good enough, it still wouldn't likely be with MUCH breathing room...granted maybe not right on the bubble, but not a particularly high seed either. It'd be nice to get back to the days when they were in when the season started, it was just a matter of playing the year for seeding. As far as earning their bid...maybe, but they COULD have and SHOULD have earned it weeks ago already..it shouldn't be coming down to the BET to determine whether or not they will get in(I hope they do). Beat Providence at home weeks ago...they are in, beat DePaul a week and a half ago...they are in. Those weren't/shouldn't have been daunting tasks, but it turns out they were.
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But that's my point...even if this were two or three years ago, and their resume was good enough, it still wouldn't likely be with MUCH breathing room...granted maybe not right on the bubble, but not a particularly high seed either. It'd be nice to get back to the days when they were in when the season started, it was just a matter of playing the year for seeding. As far as earning their bid...maybe, but they COULD have and SHOULD have earned it weeks ago already..it shouldn't be coming down to the BET to determine whether or not they will get in(I hope they do). Beat Providence at home weeks ago...they are in, beat DePaul a week and a half ago...they are in. Those weren't/shouldn't have been daunting tasks, but it turns out they were.
but beating Seton Hall and Creighton twice each was not really in the cards either...just what it is...
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Buzz's last season we were the preseason top 20 and picked to win the conference..... didn't even make the NIT.
No such thing as playing for seeding before the season starts.
Have to earn it every year.
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Buzz's last season we were the preseason top 20 and picked to win the conference..... didn't even make the NIT.
No such thing as playing for seeding before the season starts.
Have to earn it every year.
Speaking of Buzz, he and his team could do a real screw job with us Wed. night by losing to Notre Dame. That could take away another bid. We all have to cheer for Va Tech tomorrow night.
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Speaking of Buzz, he and his team could do a real screw job with us Wed. night by losing to Notre Dame. That could take away another bid. We all have to cheer for Va Tech tomorrow night.
Cheering for VATech? Thats just unfortunate
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Cheering for VATech? Thats just unfortunate
Hell of a lot better than cheering for their opponent. Somehow Wisconsin will win in the match up between Va Tech and ND
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Any fear of BYU being a bid thief has vanished, getting absolutely pummeled. Would be great if St. Mary's was left out and the WCC only got the Zags
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but beating Seton Hall and Creighton twice each was not really in the cards either...just what it is...
Exactly correct Nukem2. Nothing personal muguru, many make your same argument, but this argument of picking two underperformances out of 30 games drives me crazy. This would be like rolling a die 30 times and saying you won every time a 3 through 6 came up, and then being angry that on the 23rd and 28th roll it came up as a loss.
Part of analytics is that you are going to be several points above the prediction and several points below the prediction over the course of a lot of games.
At DePaul, Marquette was an underdog in Vegas. I typed that I understood that spread. On February 7 we were a 6-point underdog at www.kenpom.com and on February 17 we were a 7-point underdog against Creighton and at one point the www.kenpom.com in-game percentage gave Marquette a 3% chance to come back and win the game - so Marquette pulled off bigger upsets than their opponents this season. So to say almost any loss is avoidable is technically correct, you cannot avoid around 6 underperformances and 6 overperformances a year. The great teams are just so much better than most of their opponents that they pull out most games.
For all those who make jokes about not playing the season and just going by the preseason rankings - kenpom ranked Marquette 49th before the season (which I thought was too high at the time) and MU is 50th now and could finish above or below that mark based on the BE tournament.
So based on the preseason rating at kenpom, we would have expected MU to be in the basic position they are now - on the bubble heading into the conference tournament. No looking back - just look ahead and hope we can win.
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Where is the like button? Great post.
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Any fear of BYU being a bid thief has vanished, getting absolutely pummeled. Would be great if St. Mary's was left out and the WCC only got the Zags
They started out playing well and had me worried. Giving up something along the lines of a 25-4 run in the first 10 minutes of the second half made me feel much better.
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Cheering for VATech? Thats just unfortunate
Cue up the dueling banjos😳 and take one for the team, enn’a heyoooo noooooooooo
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Exactly correct Nukem2. Nothing personal muguru, many make your same argument, but this argument of picking two underperformances out of 30 games drives me crazy. This would be like rolling a die 30 times and saying you won every time a 3 through 6 came up, and then being angry that on the 23rd and 28th roll it came up as a loss.
Part of analytics is that you are going to be several points above the prediction and several points below the prediction over the course of a lot of games.
At DePaul, Marquette was an underdog in Vegas. I typed that I understood that spread. On February 7 we were a 6-point underdog at www.kenpom.com and on February 17 we were a 7-point underdog against Creighton and at one point the www.kenpom.com in-game percentage gave Marquette a 3% chance to come back and win the game - so Marquette pulled off bigger upsets than their opponents this season. So to say almost any loss is avoidable is technically correct, you cannot avoid around 6 underperformances and 6 overperformances a year. The great teams are just so much better than most of their opponents that they pull out most games.
For all those who make jokes about not playing the season and just going by the preseason rankings - kenpom ranked Marquette 49th before the season (which I thought was too high at the time) and MU is 50th now and could finish above or below that mark based on the BE tournament.
So based on the preseason rating at kenpom, we would have expected MU to be in the basic position they are now - on the bubble heading into the conference tournament. No looking back - just look ahead and hope we can win.
Great post. It is beyond peculiar how predictive Pomeroy has become. Will be interesting to see where we rank next preseason.
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At least they hired a guy with high major experience instead of going with a top assistant.
Yeah, they hired the guy Chico wanted instead of Buzz.
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I was never a Buzz hater (actually liked him when he was our guy) but I thought the way he left was ugly. He and Larry Williams was a toxic combo.
Here’s hoping the once-fat-hick-philosopher brings the wood to the domers tomorrow.
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Speaking of Buzz, he and his team could do a real screw job with us Wed. night by losing to Notre Dame. That could take away another bid. We all have to cheer for Va Tech tomorrow night.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3oEduQW5CTyisoPALC/giphy.gif)
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MU was not a dog at DePaul, MU was -3.5 that day.
Accordingly enough, MU is giving 6 at the Garden to the Blue Demons tomorrow.
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Big Va Tech fan tomorrow. Easiest one of these supposedly "tough calls" I've had to make all season.
I have absolutely no ill will toward Buzz. I got a great deal of enjoyment from watching his Warriors play. His tenure at MU ended in a shytty way ... which puts him on par with most.
Meanwhile, I hate ND. Always have, always will. Plus, not that I needed ANOTHER reason to hate ND, but they can take a tourney spot from us.
I didn't see the Fraudulent Irish barely get past a horrible Pitt team, but from the sound of it they were hardly worthy of the "let's get them in the tourney because Bonzi is back" push taking place on ESPN and elsewhere.
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So here's something I found interesting about looking at the raw RPI numbers on rpiforecast.com. There are twenty-one teams with an rpi between 0.5700 and 0.5800. That is every team ranked 44-64 in RPI within a difference of .01.
For comparison, .01 is also the difference between #1 Virginia and #3 Xavier (0.6715 and 0.6615). That is how incredibly close things are on the bubble. Twenty-one teams separated by a very small amount.
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Ouch - can't link from my phone, but lunardi did a post on what each team needed to do and believes we are out unless we beat nova. Sorry I'd this was posted - I just saw it.
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/3oEduQW5CTyisoPALC/giphy.gif)
I’m going to have to work through this one emotionally with a few gournal entries.
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Cheering for VATech?
There has to be a better way!
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There has to be a better way!
I have two better ways:
1: Cheer against Notre Dame.
2: Consider Buzz to still owe Marquette and this is a chance for him to pay that debt.
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I always cheer for Buzz. Except against MU, want VAT to win.
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So here's something I found interesting about looking at the raw RPI numbers on rpiforecast.com. There are twenty-one teams with an rpi between 0.5700 and 0.5800. That is every team ranked 44-64 in RPI within a difference of .01.
For comparison, .01 is also the difference between #1 Virginia and #3 Xavier (0.6715 and 0.6615). That is how incredibly close things are on the bubble. Twenty-one teams separated by a very small amount.
Yup it’s crazy close. The games that have a “marginal impact” on our RPI can make a world of difference
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Buzz's last season we were the preseason top 20 and picked to win the conference..... didn't even make the NIT.
No such thing as playing for seeding before the season starts.
Have to earn it every year.
Really?? there isn't?? C'mon mark, you're a smart guy, and follow college BB...you honestly can't look at a teams talent coming in a following year and say to yourself "barring something catastrophic, injuries etc), that's easily an NCAA tournament team?? I sure can..You didn't think MU's 2003 Final Four team was an NCAA team before the season started?? I sure did..Or the three amigos teams?? Or some of Buzz's teams?? There is absolutely playing for seeding before the season starts..I can find at least 20 teams every year when the season starts that unless something totally unforeseen happens, are virtual locks to make it in...and are playing for seeding.
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Really?? there isn't?? C'mon mark, you're a smart guy, and follow college BB...you honestly can't look at a teams talent coming in a following year and say to yourself "barring something catastrophic, injuries etc), that's easily an NCAA tournament team?? I sure can..You didn't think MU's 2003 Final Four team was an NCAA team before the season started?? I sure did..Or the three amigos teams?? Or some of Buzz's teams?? There is absolutely playing for seeding before the season starts..I can find at least 20 teams every year when the season starts that unless something totally unforeseen happens, are virtual locks to make it in...and are playing for seeding.
Your own post contradicts itself. Something unforeseen happens around the country every year. Notre Dame is an example this year. The Kentucky team that went to the NIT. When Coach K missed most of Duke's season. I'm confident if you go through annual preseason top-10 to 15 teams, you'll find at least one team a year that is playing for its postseason life by February.
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Your own post contradicts itself. Something unforeseen happens around the country every year. Notre Dame is an example this year. The Kentucky team that went to the NIT. When Coach K missed most of Duke's season. I'm confident if you go through annual preseason top-10 to 15 teams, you'll find at least one team a year that is playing for its postseason life by February.
Doing a quick look just last year Preseason Top 25 not making tourney; Indiana 11/11, UConn 18/16, Syracuse 19/17, and Texas 21/22.
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Doing a quick look just last year Preseason Top 25 not making tourney; Indiana 11/11, UConn 18/16, Syracuse 19/17, and Texas 21/22.
IU, woof.
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This gentleman has us in the play in. Maybe we would play St. Mary’s in Dayton under his scenario.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-basketball/2018/3/6/17084572/bracketology-2018-college-basketball-bubble-saint-mary-s-byu-syracuse-notre-dame-gonzaga
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Heard Bilas say today that No Dick should get in with their resume. Say it ain't so, Jay.
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Heard Bilas say today that No Dick should get in with their resume. Say it ain't so, Jay.
Bilas supporting the ACC, what a surprise.
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I always cheer for Buzz. Except against MU, want VAT to win.
I do too. I’ll always love Buzz
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I do too. I’ll always love Buzz
F8ck Buzz with a rusty tire iron.
But beat ND tonight.
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F8ck Buzz with a rusty tire iron.
But beat ND tonight.
You’re a kinky f*cker
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Doing a quick look just last year Preseason Top 25 not making tourney; Indiana 11/11, UConn 18/16, Syracuse 19/17, and Texas 21/22.
And look at this year's preseason Top 25 in both directions:
USC 10/11
Notre Dame 14/14
Minnesota 15/15
Louisville 16/16
Xavier 17/17
Northwestern 19/20
Purdue 20/21
And Receiving Votes? Virginia and Wisconsin
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I’m going to have to work through this one emotionally with a few gournal entries.
Time's up - you said a second
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Bilas supporting the ACC, what a surprise.
But Bilas also loves Wojo and, by extension, our Warriors.
Oh, and Bilas isn't on the committee.
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But Bilas also loves Wojo and, by extension, our Warriors.
Oh, and Bilas isn't on the committee.
The Duke Mafia extends to ND too.
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It's actually embarrassing how much ND has been discussed on ESPN the past several days. They legit take up 75% of the bubble discussion. Its pathetic.
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It's actually embarrassing how much ND has been discussed on ESPN the past several days. They legit take up 75% of the bubble discussion. Its pathetic.
FIFY
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the "Team Sheet" lists six different ratings on the top.
The three "results-based metrics", (RPI, KPI, SOR) Marquette is ranked ahead of ND. Avg 49 vs 62.
The three "predictive metrics" (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin) ND is listed ahead of MU. Avg 30 vs 48
Sagarin has the Irish at #24, Pomeroy has them #32.
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It's actually embarrassing how much ND has been discussed on ESPN the past several days. They legit take up 75% of the bubble discussion. Its pathetic.
They're not wrong to given the circumstances. Notre Dame was a legit top 10 team with Bonzie in the line-up to start the year. It's intriguing, but they have plenty of work to do. Those who say they are in now are simply delusional.
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Big Bilas fan. I think he is the best commentator in the sport.
But while I knew he wasn't perfect (nobody is), he really drove home that point when he kept insisting Josh Gasser would be drafted and have a long NBA career. Josh Effen Gasser.
If the Buzzards take care of buzzness today, Bilas should be wrong again here about ND.
But I still would take Bilas over any other talking head on TWL.
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CBS's projected First Four is almost identical to the 2003 Final Four. Marquette, Texas, and Syracuse. Way to blow it Kansas.
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Buzz is going to "F" Notre Dame......
Remember Larry Williams......
Buzz has a long memory......
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FSU is the team that should be on the bubble
They SUCK every game I watch them
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They're not wrong to given the circumstances. Notre Dame was a legit top 10 team with Bonzie in the line-up to start the year. It's intriguing, but they have plenty of work to do. Those who say they are in now are simply delusional.
Fine. But there are at least a dozen other teams that merit bubble discussion. All they talk about is ND and Cuse. It is nauseating.
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Fine. But there are at least a dozen other teams that merit bubble discussion. All they talk about is ND and Cuse. It is nauseating.
Agreed.
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Florida State playing arguably the most disgusting half of offensive basketball I've ever seen.
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One thing not included in the above info from AuburnMarquette is road wins. MU is pretty solid in that category, with three of our Q1 wins on the road.
Not sure why a Q1 road win should count more than a Q1 home win. Q1 road win is against a top 70 team or better and a Q1 home win is against a top 30 team or better. Doubt road Q1 wins are generally more difficult to come by than Q1 home wins. At least I think that was the whole idea around segregating them that way.
Bottom line is that unless we beat Villanova we leave our fate in the hands of a committee with several teams close enough to us that we don't have a great argument if we get left out, nor do those bubbly teams around us if we get in and they get left out. Lets hope after this year we take the decision out of the committee's hands for a few years.
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Well, there goes one spot...Louisville will be in...thanks Florida St.
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Florida State sucks. A lot. And honestly their resume isn't any good either. They have a 1 point home win over UNC and a road win over Florida. That's it.
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Well, there goes one spot...Louisville will be in...thanks Florida St.
They need to win tomorrow to feel safe. But yeah this doesn't help.
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Florida State sucks. A lot. And honestly their resume isn't any good either. They have a 1 point home win over UNC and a road win over Florida. That's it.
Team is trash
Like absolutely garbage
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They need to win tomorrow to feel safe. But yeah this doesn't help.
I really don't think so...most feel if they win today, they are in.
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Best part is FSU chokes in the tourney every year
Just leave them out
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Not sure why a Q1 road win should count more than a Q1 home win. Q1 road win is against a top 70 team or better and a Q1 home win is against a top 30 team or better. Doubt road Q1 wins are generally more difficult to come by than Q1 home wins. At least I think that was the whole idea around segregating them that way.
Bottom line is that unless we beat Villanova we leave our fate in the hands of a committee with several teams close enough to us that we don't have a great argument if we get left out, nor do those bubbly teams around us if we get in and they get left out. Lets hope after this year we take the decision out of the committee's hands for a few years.
The committee chair has blatantly said that road wins are like gold. The quadrant system underscore that even further. We can only go off the info we've been provided.
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I really don't think so...most feel if they win today, they are in.
Who? Where?
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Fine. But there are at least a dozen other teams that merit bubble discussion. All they talk about is ND and Cuse. It is nauseating.
That's because both have a natural bias. ND pushes views love AND hate, and Syracuse, like Northwestern, has a large alumni contingent at the WWL which they can't help but push the narrative on.
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That's because both have a natural bias. ND pushes views love AND hate, and Syracuse, like Northwestern, has a large alumni contingent at the WWL which they can't help but push the narrative on.
Right. Emotion drives content; indifference kills.
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Florida State is the perfect example of a team that "bracketologist" have just had in for months, whereas, the committee is going to take a fresh look and I'm not so sure their resume is going to look so great held up to light.
EDIT: to be fair, they have road wins against Va Tech, Louisville, and Florida; and a trophy win against UNC.
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Two teams that Bracketmatrix has in but I don't think make it:
St. Mary's
Best Wins
@Gonzaga, New Mexico St, @BYU
Horrible SOS (170)
USC
Best Wins
Middle Tennessee St, New Mexico St, @Utah
Their three best wins all happened before Bennie Boatwright was lost for the season.
Both have good rpi's but pretty empty resumes. I'd take Marquette over both of them. I'm growing more optimistic that a win tonight will be enough to squeak into the field. Too many moving parts to say that definitively though.
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Two teams that Bracketmatrix has in but I don't think make it:
St. Mary's
Best Wins
@Gonzaga, New Mexico St, @BYU
Horrible SOS (170)
USC
Best Wins
Middle Tennessee St, New Mexico St, @Utah
Their three best wins all happened before Bennie Boatwright was lost for the season.
Both have good rpi's but pretty empty resumes. I'd take Marquette over both of them. I'm growing more optimistic that a win tonight will be enough to squeak into the field. Too many moving parts to say that definitively though.
I agree if a couple bubble games go our way. Need USC and Cuse to lose their next games.
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At this point I want to see what happens the next two days. If MU wins tonight and loses tomorrow it will be time to look more closely at how MUs team sheet compares to other bubble teams whose seasons have ended.
I know I won’t be able to figure out how or why St. Mary’s should be in the field unless the Selection Committee blatantly ignores things it says are important like quality wins, quality road wins, and teams putting themselves out there in the non conference games.
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NC State should be safe with wins over UNC, Duke and Clemson, but BC is currently giving them the biz, up 13 in the 1H.
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NC State should be safe with wins over UNC, Duke and Clemson, but BC is currently giving them the biz, up 13 in the 1H.
They are safe. Almost all have the ACC with 8 locks, then add in possibility of Louisville, Cuse and ND. Louisville might have wrapped up theirs today, so sort of mandatory that ND and Cuse lose tonight.
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NC State should be safe with wins over UNC, Duke and Clemson, but BC is currently giving them the biz, up 13 in the 1H.
Another team that isn’t very good
Unless they play the tourney at home
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Another team that isn’t very good
Unless they play the tourney at home
NC State went 21-10, 11-7 in conference, tied with North Carolina, Clemson and Miami. They are safe.
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NC State went 21-10, 11-7 in conference, tied with North Carolina, Clemson and Miami. They are safe.
Not sure where I said they weren’t
Just said they are not good
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Not sure where I said they weren’t
Just said they are not good
Their resume is awfully similar to us when you look at the quadrant breakdown. They have a signature win (Duke) which we don't, we have a better SOS (26 vs. 66). Doing a blind resume, they do look more like a bubble team than a lock.
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Arizona St down 4 at the half vs Colorado.
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Their resume is awfully similar to us when you look at the quadrant breakdown. They have a signature win (Duke) which we don't, we have a better SOS (26 vs. 66). Doing a blind resume, they do look more like a bubble team than a lock.
Yup. They take care of business at home tho. We missed some of those big opportunities
But away from home they are very hit or miss.
Like today.
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NC State loses to Boston College by four.
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Arizona State down 7 to Colorado with 6 to go.
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Any way to stream this ASU game through the P12 network?
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Any way to stream this ASU game through the P12 network?
If you get it through TV provider, log in here- http://pac-12.com/live
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https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/971459214995480577?s=21
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If you get it through TV provider, log in here- http://pac-12.com/live
Yah, found that. Don't believe anybody in the midwest can get P12 Network through TV provider.
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Can’t find the tweet now, but someone tweeted that if NCST loses to BC, they have a 3.7% chance of making the dance.
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Can’t find the tweet now, but someone tweeted that if NCST loses to BC, they have a 3.7% chance of making the dance.
Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
N.C. State is down 45-31 at the half to Boston College. According to the ESPN BPI, N.C. State will have just a 3.7% chance of making the NCAA Tournament with a loss today.
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Can’t find the tweet now, but someone tweeted that if NCST loses to BC, they have a 3.7% chance of making the dance.
BPI says so.....for whatever that is worth
https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/971459214995480577?s=21
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BPI says so.....for whatever that is worth
https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/971459214995480577?s=21
Yah...nothing. I am far from impressed with NC State or their resume, but they're in.
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Yah, found that. Don't believe anybody in the midwest can get P12 Network through TV provider.
I’m watching on spectrum channel 345 in wisconsin right now, pac 12 network part of the sports package
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Oh man, Buffs doing some heavy lifting for us now. Up 9 with under 3 to play.
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I’m watching on spectrum channel 345 in wisconsin right now, pac 12 network part of the sports package
Nice. Definitely not available on either Comcast or DTV in MN.
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Oh man, Buffs doing some heavy lifting for us now. Up 9 with under 3 to play.
Theo's HS classmate McKinley Wright with 13 points, 10 dimes and 7 rebounds.
I wouldn't have hated having him around.
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https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/971459214995480577?s=21
The replies to this tweet are a hoot.
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Yah...nothing. I am far from impressed with NC State or their resume, but they're in.
Huh....
They beat Duke, North Carolina, Arizona, Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State.
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BPI says so.....for whatever that is worth
https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/971459214995480577?s=21
Not much, in my opinion. NC State has wins over Duke , @UNC, Clemson, Arizona with a handful of less shiny Ws against Cuse, FSU, and Louisville. I think they're still very much on the right side of the bubble - if on it at all.
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I’ve seen a few tweets on the BPI percentage of being in the tournament as being super volatile and unrealistic. Like most stats ESPN puts out, I ignore it.
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Ik it’s been discussed before but damn McKinley Wright would have looked awfully good in blue and gold, especially with our lack of a pg for next year. He is a player.
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So Joey B has ASU as an 11 seed (before today's L), not even in last 4 byes. Can't wait to see how he tries to spin this one to keep them in his bracket.
Probably the standard arbitrary re-seed without any explanation.
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Huh....
They beat Duke, North Carolina, Arizona, Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State.
And lost to Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech, UNG Greensboro and Boston College.
Their wins over Duke, UNC and Arizona will get them in. But their overall resume is not that impressive. They are 8-9 against Q1 and Q2. Marquette is 8-10. Their RPI is 65, Marquette's 55. Their resumes are alot closer than you'd think.
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So Joey B has ASU as an 11 seed (before today's L), not even in last 4 byes. Can't wait to see how he tries to spin this one to keep them in his bracket.
Probably the standard arbitrary re-seed without any explanation.
He said yesterday they are out with a loss to Colorado so we will see
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Kin!!
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He said yesterday they are out with a loss to Colorado so we will see
Oh. Good.
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We are big Arizona fans now. I think UCLA and USC can play their way out. I believe Arizona is the only non-bubble team in the PAC-12.
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Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
N.C. State is down 45-31 at the half to Boston College. According to the ESPN BPI, N.C. State will have just a 3.7% chance of making the NCAA Tournament with a loss today.
Thank you.
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Wtf I love the Buffaloes now
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And lost to Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech, UNG Greensboro and Boston College.
Their wins over Duke, UNC and Arizona will get them in. But their overall resume is not that impressive. They are 8-9 against Q1 and Q2. Marquette is 8-10. Their RPI is 65, Marquette's 55. Their resumes are alot closer than you'd think.
I think we need to list RPI number when we list good wins and bad losses. So the this should read
And lost to 137, 154, 66n and 89.
Wins over 4, 6 and 18. (Also have a win against 12). 4 top 20 wins like that is helpful to their case.
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https://twitter.com/espnstatsinfo/status/971459214995480577?s=21
Really? Id be surprised if they dropped that much
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I think we need to list RPI number when we list good wins and bad losses. So the this should read
And lost to 137, 154, 66n and 89.
Wins over 4, 6 and 18. (Also have a win against 12). 4 top 20 wins like that is helpful to their case.
Yeah, they will be in. But Arizona State may not be so lucky, it'll be close. Losses to 85, 85, 72, 72, 66, 66, and 144.
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We are big Arizona fans now. I think UCLA and USC can play their way out. I believe Arizona is the only non-bubble team in the PAC-12.
You are correct.
I don't think it happens, but there is a legitimate path to the PAC 12 being a 1 bid league. They have one lock and 5 bubble teams... And none of the bubble teams play each other in the first round (unless Washington beats Oregon State to face USC who has a bye). If they all lose their first game, Arizona wins the tournament, and other bubble teams do well... They could have 5 NIT bound teams.
1 down...4 to go
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Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
N.C. State is down 45-31 at the half to Boston College. According to the ESPN BPI, N.C. State will have just a 3.7% chance of making the NCAA Tournament with a loss today.
Awesome! I had an acc fan giving me grief for having a Boston College guard on my All-American team ahead of Duke and UNC players but they have a great backcourt so was hoping they could finish off nc state.
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Theo's HS classmate McKinley Wright with 13 points, 10 dimes and 7 rebounds.
I wouldn't have hated having him around.
Wright was a Dayton commit before Archie left for IU. Huge loss for UD.
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Wright was a Dayton commit before Archie left for IU. Huge loss for UD.
Hey, they still have Kostas!
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I think there is a scenario where the Big East could have 8 teams in. MU and The Johnnies make it to the finals of the BET and the Johnnies win.
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I think there is a scenario where the Big East could have 8 teams in. MU and The Johnnies make it to the finals of the BET and the Johnnies win.
;D
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I think there is a scenario where the Big East could have 8 teams in. MU and The Johnnies make it to the finals of the BET and the Johnnies win.
C'mon man, what is your fascination with the Johnnies?? They aren't even beating Georgetown tonight, and if they do, they sure as hell aren't beating Xavier.
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I'm assuming they are in despite the loss to Colorado today but wondering if there is a chance
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C'mon man, what is your fascination with the Johnnies?? They aren't even beating Georgetown tonight, and if they do, they sure as hell aren't beating Xavier.
The Johnnies are just one of those very cheesy organizations that you can't really hate and you can't really like either. So to me they are a good opponent. I find them entertaining because you don't know which of their teams is going to show up on any given night, the one that loses to a D II team or the one that can beat a top 5 team. They have been that way for years. They and their fans embody everything that is good and bad about Long Island ( old time Brooklyn/Queens) culture. I loved it when we smoked them at home a few weeks ago and watching Chris Mullin going up and down the sideline. The Johnnies are the George Constanza of the Big East.
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You are correct.
I don't think it happens, but there is a legitimate path to the PAC 12 being a 1 bid league. They have one lock and 5 bubble teams... And none of the bubble teams play each other in the first round (unless Washington beats Oregon State to face USC who has a bye). If they all lose their first game, Arizona wins the tournament, and other bubble teams do well... They could have 5 NIT bound teams.
1 down...4 to go
And Washington has to do more then win that uSC game in my opinion
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Go Buzz go!
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Oklahoma should be out. Pile of hot garbage.
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Yeah, they will be in. But Arizona State may not be so lucky, it'll be close. Losses to 85, 85, 72, 72, 66, 66, and 144.
Total spectator/know-nothing here but from the looks of it, I think they'll be in. Their early season notoriety has got to play a huge factor. From what I remember, the members of the committee start putting their brackets together weeks in advance. They certainly didn't sneak up on any of the committee members.
IMO, they're one of a handful of teams I'd most expect to get the final bid over Marquette. I also will find it hard to trust any of the experts who predict them as definitely out, leading up to the selection show.
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MU sent out email on NCAA ticket ordering info. We are in...#donedeal
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Oklahoma should be out. Pile of hot garbage.
I am at the Big 12 tournament on business. Who am I supposed to be rooting for In this game( from MU perspective)?
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Oklahoma simply can’t be let in
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I am at the Big 12 tournament on business. Who am I supposed to be rooting for In this game( from MU perspective)?
From an MU perspective, I’d say Oklahoma. Lunardi has MU as one spot ahead of Oklahoma State.
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Georgia up 21 at half. Is a W tonight enough to guarantee Q2, or do they need to win tomorrow?
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Oklahoma simply can’t be let in
From an MU perspective, I’d say Oklahoma. Lunardi has MU as one spot ahead of Oklahoma State.
If I hear Boomer Sooner one more time.....
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VT 34 ND 21 at the half......no matter how much ESPN and CBSSN hype them......ball don't lie.
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Georgia up 21 at half. Is a W tonight enough to guarantee Q2, or do they need to win tomorrow?
No, I ran the numbers...they will also need to beat Missouri in the next round, then they SHOULD be far enough in, that they won't fall out.
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No, I ran the numbers...they will also need to beat Missouri in the next round, then they SHOULD be far enough in, that they won't fall out.
Is Porter officially back for Missouri? If not, could be very interesting
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Porter is playing tonight according to all reports
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Just watched an interesting video with Chairman Bruce Rasmussen, said the committee voted today, and they voted in 28 teams already, which is higher than normal. Then said there are probably 10-15 teams yet that are under consideration.
https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/971544043774672897 (https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/971544043774672897)
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Wall to wall impact here at the Rock. I think the only game I don't care about is Colgate/Bucknell. BTW, Notre Dame just blows. But none of this matters unless we kick some DePaul butt.
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VT trying to choke this away.
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I'm switching back and forth with three games, but every time I turn on VT-ND, VT fires up an ill advised 3.
ND blows.
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I'm switching back and forth with three games, but every time I turn on VT-ND, VT fires up an ill advised 3.
ND blows.
Basically Colson just playing ball.
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I'm switching back and forth with three games, but every time I turn on VT-ND, VT fires up an ill advised 3.
ND blows.
That's why I use the DirecTV picture-in-picture feature. On an 80" screen, both are plenty big
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what a choke job
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Just an enormous choke job by VT and Buzz.
The shot selection and offense in the 2nd half was atrocious.
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Neither team looked good in the bunches I watched.
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ND just solidified their spot in the tourney.
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Had 18 point lead with 13 to go.
VT has gone 1 for its last 16. Bad things happen when that bad.
Pretty big choke job and ND still on bubble.
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Thanks for nothing Buzz...man is his team undisciplined.
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Wow Va Tech hasn’t made a shot since I left work. I’m home now.......and I live in Los Angeles.
Bad news. Thanks buzz
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ND just solidified their spot in the tourney.
Not so sure...only 2 Q1 wins
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Not so sure...only 2 Q1 wins
In the bubble. Barely in.
Wins vs a very decent VATEch?
That's one less spot on the bubble. Just saying. ND will get the nod before MU.
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Not so sure...only 2 Q1 wins
But they will be awarded wins for every game they lost while Colson was out.
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VT a bunch of losers
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Buzz screwed us good. Well done Williams.
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Lunardi’s live look during VT/ND game.
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Not ideal but ND should still be behind MU. Thankfully the committee isn’t made up of ESPN employees and ND loving sport writing bobos.
I do suspect Lunardi will move them ahead of MU.
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Need Cuse to lose
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ND just solidified their spot in the tourney.
Nah. Nobody actually believes this. If they beat Duke tomorrow, then yeah. But I'd bet Lunardi hedges hard on his statement about them being in and doesn't put them in unless they beat Duke.
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Need Cuse to lose
Now this I agree with.
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Bonz Col kept referring to that (female) reporter as “baby”.
I’m offended.
He thinks that ND is going to “do something special”. How about we start by treating women with respect Bonz? Sheesh....
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Man, the insecurity on this board makes an 8th grade dance look well adjusted.
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Lunardi’s live look during VT/ND game.
What in the hell is he smoking having Alabama ahead of us? No chance they get in with 15 losses. Period. What are they going to get an at large bid as a 14 seed? They need to win their tourney.
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And Lunardi just switched us and ND
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Not ideal but ND should still be behind MU. Thankfully the committee isn’t made up of ESPN employees and ND loving sport writing bobos.
I do suspect Lunardi will move them ahead of MU.
And yep. OK State and ND now ahead of us in Lunardis up to the minute. Lol
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Everyone that we needed to lose early to get some breathing room has won. At this point, I think MU definitely needs the Nova game.
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Look, I still think all the teeth gnashing here over who's winning and losing that's on the bubble is ridiculous. Had MU simply beaten DePaul a week and a half ago, or Providence at home, none of this would even be a concern to us..If MU doesn't get in..it's only one teams fault..MU's. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
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Look, I still think all the teeth gnashing here over who's winning and losing that's on the bubble is ridiculous. Had MU simply beaten DePaul a week and a half ago, or Providence at home, none of this would even be a concern to us..If MU doesn't get in..it's only one teams fault..MU's. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
FFS
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Look, I still think all the teeth gnashing here over who's winning and losing that's on the bubble is ridiculous. Had MU simply beaten DePaul a week and a half ago, or Providence at home, none of this would even be a concern to us..If MU doesn't get in..it's only one teams fault..MU's. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
Despite that...MU also has a chance to play themselves into the field over the next 30 hours.
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Look, I still think all the teeth gnashing here over who's winning and losing that's on the bubble is ridiculous. Had MU simply beaten DePaul a week and a half ago, or Providence at home, none of this would even be a concern to us..If MU doesn't get in..it's only one teams fault..MU's. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
Yes , the Depaul loss would have got us to 10-9 and a better seed in the BE. But, that’s been discussed numerous times and can’t do anything about it. Just have to win tonight and beat Nova. It can be done and if it doesn’t, then NIT. It is what it is. Enjoy the game tonight.
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Look, I still think all the teeth gnashing here over who's winning and losing that's on the bubble is ridiculous. Had MU simply beaten DePaul a week and a half ago, or Providence at home, none of this would even be a concern to us..If MU doesn't get in..it's only one teams fault..MU's. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
Guru—-we get it. We didn’t beat DePaul the last time we played them. We lost. To DePaul. Nothing in the world is gonna to change that. Even you bringing it up dozens of times will not change that. We lost at DePaul.
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There’s always some wild seeding choices and teams included. I fee the committee is a bit of a wild card at times. Only one bracket matters. For some reason I fee they may be underestimating our resume.
Granted, I’m an optimist.
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You heard guru guys, no more talking about any other games and how they impact MU because we lost to Depaul. You've all been put on notice. Lock it up!
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According to the guys on fs 1 pregame mu needs 2 maybe 3 more wins.......espn locks in ND at every chance they get and our network is adding extra wins to our required win total.......lol
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Need Syracuse to lose tonight vs North Carolina.
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Look, I still think all the teeth gnashing here over who's winning and losing that's on the bubble is ridiculous. Had MU simply beaten DePaul a week and a half ago, or Providence at home, none of this would even be a concern to us..If MU doesn't get in..it's only one teams fault..MU's. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
Dude we’re college basketball fans enjoying the stretch run. No one is forcing you to partake.
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Tom Cream on ESPN2 was giving his support to Nebraska's Big Ten record.
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Not totally bubble related, but Markus's brother is playing on ESPN3 right now against Lamar. Central Arkansas up 2 at the half.
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Lm. Frankly, I HATE even being in this position to begin with. It's like rooting for them to back door their way in.
Nothing is bad with backing their way in. Sign Brewers fans after the Fish beat the Mets years ago. ;D
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We don't deserve to be in the tournament. We can barely beat depaul who is 11-20....
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Howie Schwab on FS1 just said we could be in now with all the other losses tonight.
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Howie Schwab on FS1 just said we could be in now with all the other losses tonight.
Yup. I have a good feeling we’re in regardless of tomorrow’s result.
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We don't deserve to be in the tournament. We can barely beat depaul who is 11-20....
And ND beat Pitt by 3, the same Pitt who was 0-18 in the ACC
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We don't deserve to be in the tournament. We can barely beat depaul who is 11-20....
We barely beat Holy Cross and was taken to OT v Missouri but still made the Final Four.
Survive and advance.
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Howie Schwab on FS1 just said we could be in now with all the other losses tonight.
I couldn't stop staring at his one upper-tooth.
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We don't deserve to be in the tournament. We can barely beat depaul who is 11-20....
No matta at all
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Washington chokes on the Beavers.
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Yeah, they hired the guy Chico wanted instead of Buzz.
Here we go again-the Chico’s derangement- let’s review-in 2008, when crean left, we had a chance to hire an established coach for the first time. Chico’s wanted Bennett, stallings and a few others. Stallings won SEC coach of the year,in 2007 and again in 2010. He was a national coach of the year and finalist as well as he had his teams,in top 25 routinely. He may be down now-10 years later, but he would have been a coup to get considering we were constantly getting assistant coaches. When buzz was hired, our top recruit and his high school coach as well said they didn’t trust buzz as many MU fans didn’t as well. They didn’t know what we had. The hire was initially a real head scratcher.
Lenny, as I stated earlier, you seem to like to poke at a guy who’s unable to defend himself now. And you know, when you and others continue to assail the bailsbondsman, no one is going to challenge you guys cuz, well it’s chicos. 10 years ago stallings was an excellent coach and his hire would have been highly praised. From 2007-2012, his teams won more than 20 games and finished as high as 7th in the AP poll.
As Chico’s left this board with a roast beef n cheddar in each hand 😋 I don’t think he was ever given enough credit for his good points. 💪👍👊💪
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Schwab taking ASU out.
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Chico’s is still here.
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Schwab taking ASU out.
I smell what the Schwab is cooking!
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I couldn't stop staring at his one upper-tooth.
I can't take him seriously now.
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Schawb has Oklahoma sneaking in.
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Howie Schwab on FS1 just said we could be in now with all the other losses tonight.
Schwab works for Fox Sports which broadcasts and promotes the Big East in the same way that Lunardi works for ESPN which broadcasts and promotes the ACC. They are both biased. As are we.
Beat Nova and our resume is worthy of a bid. Lose, and who f***ing knows. Certainly not the biased networks.
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MU wins tomorrow unnatural carnal knowledge*ng SHARPIE it up boys
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Schwab works for Fox Sports which broadcasts and promotes the Big East in the same way that Lunardi works for ESPN which broadcasts and promotes the ACC. They are both biased. As are we.
Beat Nova and our resume is worthy of a bid. Lose, and who f***ing knows. Certainly not the biased networks.
While I agree, Schawb was very against Marquette being in prior to the outcomes of tonight’s games. Before tonight, he felt beating Nova was the only way to even get an outside shot of getting in.
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I couldn't stop staring at his one upper-tooth.
Same. Where TF did they find this guy?
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Schwab works for Fox Sports which broadcasts and promotes the Big East in the same way that Lunardi works for ESPN which broadcasts and promotes the ACC. They are both biased. As are we.
Beat Nova and our resume is worthy of a bid. Lose, and who f***ing knows. Certainly not the biased networks.
Our resume, based on a loss tomorrow, would have got us in any of the last 10 years when looking at comparable resumes. That guarantees nothing, but we've done the bare minimum we should need to do to get in.
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Is the selection committee no longer even considering the last 10 games ?? That used to be a committee criteria. Not only has Mu been pretty good lately but Arizona state and Oklahoma have literally been terrible for 6-8 weeks now. Does november matter that much if u have been horrible for the better part of the last two months??? N i dont mean average i think OK is 4-11 in their last 15 and ASU similar
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Washington state helping us out, up 7 over Oregon at half. Pull it out, grab another win tomorrow. Pac12 looking like it could be in some trouble.
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Washington state helping us out, up 7 over Oregon at half. Pull it out, grab another win tomorrow. Pac12 looking like it could be in some trouble.
Oregon is toast. Zero chance at an at large.
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we've done the bare minimum
Now there's a team slogan to run with!
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Washington state helping us out, up 7 over Oregon at half. Pull it out, grab another win tomorrow. Pac12 looking like it could be in some trouble.
The only help here is that Oregon has a better chance then WSU of winning the whole thing
Neither are getting at large bids
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Oregon is toast. Zero chance at an at large.
Agree with this. I think there are a lot of things that DIDN'T break our way tonight, though. Unless we get an upset of our own tomorrow, we'll need some upsets or teams to fall short tomorrow to be sure. Otherwise, we'll be sweating it out.
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Is the selection committee no longer even considering the last 10 games ?? That used to be a committee criteria.
No. They've said on numerous occasions that is no longer considered as criteria and that games played in November mean as much as games played in February.
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Our resume, based on a loss tomorrow, would have got us in any of the last 10 years when looking at comparable resumes. That guarantees nothing, but we've done the bare minimum we should need to do to get in.
I agree. My point was that speculators from biased networks are going to give biased speculations.
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Seems like a pretty good night for MU bubble wise
Texas came back n got a win and no dick won but otherwised seemed good for MU
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Agree with this. I think there are a lot of things that DIDN'T break our way tonight, though. Unless we get an upset of our own tomorrow, we'll need some upsets or teams to fall short tomorrow to be sure. Otherwise, we'll be sweating it out.
Sure, but on whole, pretty good results today.
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The only help here is that Oregon has a better chance then WSU of winning the whole thing
Neither are getting at large bids
My bad, I had Washington state mixed up with Oregon State. That win helped us out, and we're rooting for them again tomorrow.
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No. They've said on numerous occasions that is no longer considered as criteria and that games played in November mean as much as games played in February.
Oklahoma will be a pretty good test of this. They haven't only lost a lot for 2 months, they've sucked.
But overall blind resume ... they probably have the goods to be selected.
Interesting stuff.
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;D ;D ;D
Now there's a team slogan to run with!
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No. They've said on numerous occasions that is no longer considered as criteria and that games played in November mean as much as games played in February.
Also, not fair as some teams play gauntlets down the stretch and some have more favorable schedules (like MU).
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We'll be sweating it out, but we may be fine. Weird situation, but the reality is:
Beat Nova, we're 98% in.
Lose, we've got a healthy chance of being in.
Sunday can't be more stressful than tonight, aina?
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We'll be sweating it out, but we may be fine. Weird situation, but the reality is:
Beat Nova, we're 98% in.
Lose, we've got a healthy chance of being in.
Sunday can't be more stressful than tonight, aina?
It'll be a tense 3 minutes until they get to the M's.
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No. They've said on numerous occasions that is no longer considered as criteria and that games played in November mean as much as games played in February.
Well that is stupid
Ok n asu have no business in the tourney they are trainwrecks n holden might even get a suspension!!
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I can see why just looking at last 10 might seem unfair. But, how can you ignore a team losing 11 of its last 15 as Oklahoma did? Or collapsing like ASU has?
Although last 10 or how you finish may not be an official factor, it must seep into the thinking of committee members.
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Let me analyze it this way. We've got a much better chance of hearing our name called Sunday compared to when Strus elevated for that uncontested 3. :o
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Just gonna have to put a nice down payment for the NCAA tourney on Nova tomorrow.
Since Providence we’ve only lost the DePaul game when I’ve bet against us.
And if this fails, I’ll double up on us missing the tourney.
I should lose at least 1 of those. Money gods hate me.
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Is the selection committee no longer even considering the last 10 games ?? That used to be a committee criteria. Not only has Mu been pretty good lately but Arizona state and Oklahoma have literally been terrible for 6-8 weeks now. Does november matter that much if u have been horrible for the better part of the last two months??? N i dont mean average i think OK is 4-11 in their last 15 and ASU similar
Unfortunately you are correct - it is absolutely ruled out as a factor as has kenpom (because including it would give incentive to run up scores).
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Well that is stupid
Ok n asu have no business in the tourney they are trainwrecks n holden might even get a suspension!!
I think they want to stress the importance of non-con games, which I'm fine with, but agree that recent play should matter. If your team is in freefall, it should matter.
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Someone should remind Nova that they'll make more money if we make the tournament too
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Regardless, this team has now met my expectations. 19 wins. Before the year I would have thought that locked up a tourney birth, but it's a strong bubble now. I still think we get in, but a chance to lock it up for sure tomorrow.
LOTS of bubble action tomorrow. A ton of daytime games with implications.
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Someone should remind Nova that they'll make more money if we make the tournament too
I'd be willing to guess that Nova can make more money as a 1 seed than losing to MU. And, I'd be willing to guess that Nova's AD might not be able to overrule Jay Wright's desire to win rather than to make money, at least in one particular game.
Nevertheless, go MU!!
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Language sure is changing regarding MU on ESPN's bubble watch
Work to do
Marquette (19-12, 9-9 Big East)
(BPI: 45 | SOS: 12 | SOR: 42 | RPI: 56)
Not only is it the case that Marquette might make the NCAA tournament, the Golden Eagles might have already done so. Season sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall, a .500 record in the Big East (same as Butler) could get the job done.
Then again, Marquette can end any speculation by taking down Villanova in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. A win against the Wildcats could elevate Marquette all the way to a single-digit seed.
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Language sure is changing regarding MU on ESPN's bubble watch
Work to do
Marquette (19-12, 9-9 Big East)
(BPI: 45 | SOS: 12 | SOR: 42 | RPI: 56)
Not only is it the case that Marquette might make the NCAA tournament, the Golden Eagles might have already done so. Season sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall, a .500 record in the Big East (same as Butler) could get the job done.
Then again, Marquette can end any speculation by taking down Villanova in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. A win against the Wildcats could elevate Marquette all the way to a single-digit seed.
Will we make it or not? Not sure. But, we're a great example of why sports media is total sh1t. There were people literally saying "Marquette isn't a bubble team" and now are saying they may be in. It's beyond stupid. A bunch of effin idiot talking heads. My frustration isn't with regard to MU, but this is typical. Good for MU fans to see it.
Let's just win manana and (hopefully) be in for kinda-certain.
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Language sure is changing regarding MU on ESPN's bubble watch
Work to do
Marquette (19-12, 9-9 Big East)
(BPI: 45 | SOS: 12 | SOR: 42 | RPI: 56)
Not only is it the case that Marquette might make the NCAA tournament, the Golden Eagles might have already done so. Season sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall, a .500 record in the Big East (same as Butler) could get the job done.
Then again, Marquette can end any speculation by taking down Villanova in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. A win against the Wildcats could elevate Marquette all the way to a single-digit seed.
Lol what a joke.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Palm who had us in the first four now has us as a first round bye with an 11 seed.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Palm who had us in the first four now has us as a first round bye with an 11 seed.
I think our disgusting win that many are complaining about might have gotten us in...because we didn't LOSE.
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I'd be willing to guess that Nova can make more money as a 1 seed than losing to MU. And, I'd be willing to guess that Nova's AD might not be able to overrule Jay Wright's desire to win rather than to make money, at least in one particular game.
Well, let's hope nobody reminds them of that.
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Our resume, based on a loss tomorrow, would have got us in any of the last 10 years when looking at comparable resumes. That guarantees nothing, but we've done the bare minimum we should need to do to get in.
Tell Nebraska about history as they sit on a 13-5 record. Conference scheduling for them was crazy this year.
Do you think having the big ten tournament a week early hurts the big ten? They sit and watch while everyone stil plays and moves around the bubble based on the results happening this week.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Palm who had us in the first four now has us as a first round bye with an 11 seed.
Heard him on Sirius radio this morning on my way into work, and he was asked about MU, and whether or not they needed to beat Nova and he said, he wasn't sure if they had to because of everything else that has gone on around the bubble the last few days.
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Tell Nebraska about history as they sit on a 13-5 record. Conference scheduling for them was crazy this year.
Do you think having the big ten tournament a week early hurts the big ten? They sit and watch while everyone stil plays and moves around the bubble based on the results happening this week.
As the committee has said they are deemphasizing conference records, Nebraska just has to look at comparable resumes. They played a mid-major conference schedule. They only played 5 top-50 conference games and went 1-4 in those games. Blame a down Big Ten, blame an unbalanced schedule, but when you are 19-1 against Q3/4 teams and 3-9 against the rest of the country, that's not a tournament resume.
I'm not sure if it helps or hurts them. On the plus side, their resumes are complete so the committee knows how to evaluate them and doesn't have to adjust on the fly. What really hurts the Big Ten is that it simply isn't very good.
Non-con is where league quality really is determined. What stands out to me about the Big Ten is that other than their 4 locks, the only teams mentioned as possible bubble teams, Nebraska and Penn State, have ZERO combined Q1/2 wins against non-con opponents. That's a freaking pathetic statement for that league.
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I couldn't stop staring at his one upper-tooth.
He's got a face for radio
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Palm who had us in the first four now has us as a first round bye with an 11 seed.
Awesome.
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As the committee has said they are deemphasizing conference records, Nebraska just has to look at comparable resumes. They played a mid-major conference schedule. They only played 5 top-50 conference games and went 1-4 in those games. Blame a down Big Ten, blame an unbalanced schedule, but when you are 19-1 against Q3/4 teams and 3-9 against the rest of the country, that's not a tournament resume.
I'm not sure if it helps or hurts them. On the plus side, their resumes are complete so the committee knows how to evaluate them and doesn't have to adjust on the fly. What really hurts the Big Ten is that it simply isn't very good.
Non-con is where league quality really is determined. What stands out to me about the Big Ten is that other than their 4 locks, the only teams mentioned as possible bubble teams, Nebraska and Penn State, have ZERO combined Q1/2 wins against non-con opponents. That's a freaking pathetic statement for that league.
I agree - I don’t think their resume holds weight. Nevertheless it is still fascinating to see a team in the big ten record such a strong conference record, but be considered on the outskirts looking in. Speaks volumes on the down year for the conference. Your last comment on zero wins vs non con quality opponents is miserable.
In terms of the big ten being done, just seems that it is so much easier to evaluate a resume through the week on teams that are still active versus a team that hasn’t played in a week.
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As the committee has said they are deemphasizing conference records, Nebraska just has to look at comparable resumes. They played a mid-major conference schedule. They only played 5 top-50 conference games and went 1-4 in those games. Blame a down Big Ten, blame an unbalanced schedule, but when you are 19-1 against Q3/4 teams and 3-9 against the rest of the country, that's not a tournament resume.
I'm not sure if it helps or hurts them. On the plus side, their resumes are complete so the committee knows how to evaluate them and doesn't have to adjust on the fly. What really hurts the Big Ten is that it simply isn't very good.
Non-con is where league quality really is determined. What stands out to me about the Big Ten is that other than their 4 locks, the only teams mentioned as possible bubble teams, Nebraska and Penn State, have ZERO combined Q1/2 wins against non-con opponents. That's a freaking pathetic statement for that league.
Nebraska is also the perfect example of why these huge conferences don’t work. Because they are so big, you con’t play a round robin schedule. So yes, they have a really good conference record, but they didn’t play some of the big dogs twice, and when they did, they lost. So the conference record is bloated because they played Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois two times.
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Unfortunately you are correct - it is absolutely ruled out as a factor as has kenpom (because including it would give incentive to run up scores).
KenPom no longer part of selection criteria? Hadn't heard that. Terrible decision. Has the NCAA made such a ruling as it relates to football, to disincentive teams from "running up scores?"
On a note or sportsmanship/running the score up, anyone see the end of Colorado ASU game last night? Colorado up 10 wit roughly 10 seconds left, ASU loosely guarding CU's offensive possesion, CU runs a backdoor alley oop. Trae Young from ASU levels the kid who converted lob. Solid.
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KenPom no longer part of selection criteria? Hadn't heard that. Terrible decision. Has the NCAA made such a ruling as it relates to football, to disincentive teams from "running up scores?"
On a note or sportsmanship/running the score up, anyone see the end of Colorado ASU game last night? Colorado up 10 wit roughly 10 seconds left, ASU loosely guarding CU's offensive possesion, CU runs a backdoor alley oop. Trae Young from ASU levels the kid who converted lob. Solid.
KenPom is 100% most assuredly considered by the committee... it's right there in black and white on the Team Sheet. Just follow the orange arrow (and don't get distracted by that shiite about Canada being on sale):
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KenPom no longer part of selection criteria? Hadn't heard that. Terrible decision. Has the NCAA made such a ruling as it relates to football, to disincentive teams from "running up scores?"
On a note or sportsmanship/running the score up, anyone see the end of Colorado ASU game last night? Colorado up 10 wit roughly 10 seconds left, ASU loosely guarding CU's offensive possesion, CU runs a backdoor alley oop. Trae Young from ASU levels the kid who converted lob. Solid.
According to the teamsheets, Ken Pom is included. See box number 2.
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/12/04/team_sheet_guide1.pdf
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Nebraska is also the perfect example of why these huge conferences don’t work. Because they are so big, you con’t play a round robin schedule. So yes, they have a really good conference record, but they didn’t play some of the big dogs twice, and when they did, they lost. So the conference record is bloated because they played Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois two times.
The big conferences are fine. The "old" Big East was a great conference. The current ACC and SEC are doing just fine. This was a down year for the Big Ten. They'll be back again soon enough.
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Nebraska is also the perfect example of why these huge conferences don’t work. Because they are so big, you con’t play a round robin schedule. So yes, they have a really good conference record, but they didn’t play some of the big dogs twice, and when they did, they lost. So the conference record is bloated because they played Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois two times.
Yup. The common belief is that high majors will always have the chance to make up for a weak or disappointing non-con in the regular season. But with unbalanced schedules, a down year in the league can kill a team's chances.
Nebraska may well be good enough, but they accomplished nothing in non-con and didn't beat the teams that would be in the tournament with them, so I can't see any way they can justify their inclusion, except having 12 conference wins against non-tournament teams. You don't have to be in the Big 10 to do that.
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Here we go again-the Chico’s derangement- let’s review-in 2008, when crean left, we had a chance to hire an established coach for the first time. Chico’s wanted Bennett, stallings and a few others. Stallings won SEC coach of the year,in 2007 and again in 2010. He was a national coach of the year and finalist as well as he had his teams,in top 25 routinely. He may be down now-10 years later, but he would have been a coup to get considering we were constantly getting assistant coaches. When buzz was hired, our top recruit and his high school coach as well said they didn’t trust buzz as many MU fans didn’t as well. They didn’t know what we had. The hire was initially a real head scratcher.
Lenny, as I stated earlier, you seem to like to poke at a guy who’s unable to defend himself now. And you know, when you and others continue to assail the bailsbondsman, no one is going to challenge you guys cuz, well it’s chicos. 10 years ago stallings was an excellent coach and his hire would have been highly praised. From 2007-2012, his teams won more than 20 games and finished as high as 7th in the AP poll.
Not sure about your claims, for example he was ever national coach of the year, though a finalist might be accurate. An excellent coach at the time as you mention, but everyone ages and becomes obsolete at some point in time. He appears to be fired today but will receive all $9.4M of his buyout. One of my siblings is a Panther and I follow them with some closeness.
List of potential replacements include Hurley, Matta, Crean.
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pitt/2018/03/08/kevin-stallings-fired-pitt-coaching-candidates-dan-hurley-thad-matta-tom-crean/stories/201803070021
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If Georgia beats Missouri today and loses to Kentucky tomorrow, per RPI Wizard, their RPI will rise to 74, and MU will only have one Q3 loss on the resume. Go Bulldogs!
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KenPom is 100% most assuredly considered by the committee... it's right there in black and white on the Team Sheet. Just follow the orange arrow (and don't get distracted by that shiite about Canada being on sale):
At least it's not an ad for Japanese tenacle porn or something amirite?
(https://orig00.deviantart.net/7915/f/2011/312/a/9/amirite_by_e_n_s-d4fhzi4.jpg)
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KenPom is 100% most assuredly considered by the committee... it's right there in black and white on the Team Sheet. Just follow the orange arrow (and don't get distracted by that shiite about Canada being on sale):
I'm more intrigued with the "Donor Parts Guide" tab on your toolbar....
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If Georgia beats Missouri today and loses to Kentucky tomorrow, per RPI Wizard, their RPI will rise to 74, and MU will only have one Q3 loss on the resume. Go Bulldogs!
Not sure if it still holds true, but Paint Touches said a Creighton win likely gives us another Q1 win.
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for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.
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Not sure about your claims, for example he was ever national coach of the year, though a finalist might be accurate. An excellent coach at the time as you mention, but everyone ages and becomes obsolete at some point in time. He appears to be fired today but will receive all $9.4M of his buyout. One of my siblings is a Panther and I follow them with some closeness.
List of potential replacements include Hurley, Matta, Crean.
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pitt/2018/03/08/kevin-stallings-fired-pitt-coaching-candidates-dan-hurley-thad-matta-tom-crean/stories/201803070021
I’ll have to look up the coach of the year thing again, but yes, today he isn’t doing so well. My reference was to 10 years ago. Would I hire him today? Probably not so much. Pitt may have to pay him$9.4 mil on his way out
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Don't think I've seen this here, sorry if I missed it, but it looks like there are currently 8 At Large spots up for grabs. Granted that can change a bit here and there depending on who wins conference tourneys.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-08/bubble-watch-these-9-teams-still-have-ncaa-tournament-hopes (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-08/bubble-watch-these-9-teams-still-have-ncaa-tournament-hopes)
Selection committee chair Bruce Rasmussen told NCAA.com Wednesday night that the committee voted in 28 teams into the at-large pool. That includes some teams that will win their automatic qualification, meaning the number to get to 36 at-large spots could grow beyond eight
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Not sure if it still holds true, but Paint Touches said a Creighton win likely gives us another Q1 win.
Just ran the numbers. Per RPI Wizard, Creighton needs to beat PC and X to get into the top 30 in RPI. Obviously other results can change things, but thats how it stands right.
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for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.
Even without Blue and Gold glasses that is totally insane from Lunardi.
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for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.
I would say he moved teams ahead of us compared to dropping us. I am starting to tune out the bracket gurus. With so many teams so close, the committee could be a total wild card. We may be a 10 seed in their eyes at the moment for all we know.
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for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.
Prior to MU game, he had dropped Marquette to 5th team out. He actually slid us back ahead of Syracuse after the all results went final last night.
Having ND and Alabama ahead of MU right now is silly.
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I’ll have to look up the coach of the year thing again, but yes, today he isn’t doing so well. My reference was to 10 years ago. Would I hire him today? Probably not so much. Pitt may have to pay him$9.4 mil on his way out
OK, understand. Yes, back in 2008 he would have been seen as a very good hire for us. Vanderbilt was doing well, and MU could claim to finally convince a major Division 1 coach to come to Milwaukee. I cannot remember the last decade we pulled that off. Always been an assistant or a head coach at a small school for as long as I can remember.
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Don't think I've seen this here, sorry if I missed it, but it looks like there are currently 8 At Large spots up for grabs. Granted that can change a bit here and there depending on who wins conference tourneys.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-08/bubble-watch-these-9-teams-still-have-ncaa-tournament-hopes (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-08/bubble-watch-these-9-teams-still-have-ncaa-tournament-hopes)
It is 8 assuming all autobids are stolen. Assuming teams that are otherwise locks win their conference tourney, it grows by 1 each time. Its going to be more like 12-14 still up for grabs at the end of the day.
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Prior to MU game, he had dropped Marquette to 5th team out. He actually slid us back ahead of Syracuse after the all results went final last night.
Having ND and Alabama ahead of MU right now is silly.
Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. :o
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Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. :o
Can you argue that they lost to Indiana and Ball State with him?
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Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. :o
Yah. I mean, I think Oklahoma and Ok State have legit cases to get in. Lots of Q1 wins. But I don't know.
I have always been a fan of Lunardi. Seems like a good guy and I've respected his opinion. But this year he just seems so intent on pushing ACC, B12 and SEC teams. Notre Dame does not belong. The B12 should not get 9 bids. Alabama shouldn't be all that close. It just seems he's been told to push teams that play on ESPN. I get ESPN is his employer and he needs to drive eyes to the channel, but he just seems so biased this year. It is honestly tough to watch.
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OKST has a few good wins but some bad losses
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Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. :o
I still don't get Oklahoma State being in, two huge wins versus Kansas. But rankings in results-based and predictive-based are not good. Never before has an RPI of 85 been close to getting in.
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OKST has a few good wins but some bad losses
Not really. OK State has no Q3 or Q4 losses.
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 8-0
Their biggest issue is an RPI of 85. Assuming Oklahoma gets a bid, they haven't lost to a team that won't be in the tournament all season.
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I think one of the things the experts aren't doing a good job of explaining and/or missing is just how firm the bubble is as compared to previous years of soft bubbles. MU's numbers this season would have them as a lock any other season in the last 10, but they are rightfully a bubble team this season. There are a lot of teams that are jammed on the bubble together so the confirmation bias is pretty strong this year.
Depending on how the next two days go I think Sunday will be very "controversial" because there will be a way to talk about how at least 6 teams were snubbed. Drama for days.
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So to get this all straight.... Every team in the Big12 has a good win because they beat Oklahoma...
According to Lunardi we have to judge ND with Bonzie and the team they will have going into the tournament but we can't focus on OU, ASU and Alabama's team going into the tournament but rather what they did early in the year.
That logic makes sense
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Let me analyze it this way. We've got a much better chance of hearing our name called Sunday compared to when Strus elevated for that uncontested 3. :o
For some weird reason when he went up I thought he would miss. No idea why but I didn’t even get up off of my couch
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How does OK State have an SOS in the mid 50s with 15 Q1 games on their schedule? Did they play Chicago State 3 or 4 times?
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How does OK State have an SOS in the mid 50s with 15 Q1 games on their schedule? Did they play Chicago State 3 or 4 times?
Non-Con SOS of 311....Ouch
Sounds like us a few years back
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For some weird reason when he went up I thought he would miss. No idea why but I didn’t even get up off of my couch
He was too open for his own good. You could see the little hesitation before he shot. I wasn't worried at all when it went up, more worried about the rebound.
Speaking of which, Rowsey did great on that rebound. Instead of jumping with everyone else, he hesitated and timed it well to insure he came down with it.
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Non-Con SOS of 311....Ouch
Sounds like us a few years back
I see 287. But that, along with their poor RPI, is probably the only thing that is going to give the committee pause on OK State. They did play Texas A&M (L), Wichita State (L), Arkansas (L) and Florida State (W) in the noncon, but the rest of their buy games were awful.
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He was too open for his own good. You could see the little hesitation before he shot. I wasn't worried at all when it went up, more worried about the rebound.
I saw that too.... as though he was perplexed at being so wide open (despite that being the design of the play).
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That is what I get for going on ESPN. NCAA team sheets give them a 305 non-con SOS though
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf
Scroll on down to 89. Granted, last update was 2 days ago
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That is what I get for going on ESPN. NCAA team sheets give them a 305 non-con SOS though
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf
Scroll on down to 89. Granted, last update was 2 days ago
I generally use Warren Nolan for all info. They show it at 287. In any event, it is bad.
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I see 287. But that, along with their poor RPI, is probably the only thing that is going to give the committee pause on OK State. They did play Texas A&M (L), Wichita State (L), Arkansas (L) and Florida State (W) in the noncon, but the rest of their buy games were awful.
If they pull off the 3 game sweep of KU today, I think you've got to put them in. That brings their RPI up to 67, which is still going to be lower than some other bubble teams, but that would be a huge thing to accomplish. I think I heard recently that Self has never been swept by a conference opponent in his time at KU. 3 wins for OSU over KU would be pretty darn impressive.
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So to get this all straight.... Every team in the Big12 has a good win because they beat Oklahoma...
This is my favorite post of the week.
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I'm not saying Lunardi is right - in fact I hope he is really off on Marquette, but I took his Tuesday update and based on what he said was needed then and what has happened since then here is how I believe HE would grade the chances of these 15 on the bubble. Basically 1 A, 7 Bs, then 3 Cs ahead of us for 8-10 spots (depending on spoilers) but many that could still move up or down today.
8 to 10 of these 15 GET INTO THE TOURNAMENT (1 a AND 7 Bs have inside track to take most or all of these spots, but C’s and D’s can still get in)
Bid notes as of Tuesday (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22664991/bubble-team-needs-do)
1. D- Alabama: As a current "last team in," the Tide must beat Texas A&M, at least, in the SEC opener. (First Four Out – Lunardi thinks needs win over Texas A&M Thur, 2-pt underdog)--
2. B- PROBABLY IN - Arizona State: Out with a loss to Colorado in 8-9 game of Pac-12 tourney. (last 4 in – lost to Colorado so Lunardi predicts OUT of Pac12- LOST) -
3. C -Baylor: Could sneak in without a win over West Virginia on Thursday, but don't bet on it. (last four byes, 4-point underdog)--
4. C -Florida State: Should make it even with a loss to Louisville on Wednesday. (Lost, but likely still in, out of ACC)--
5. B -Kansas State: Likely in regardless, but a Thursday win over TCU seals the deal. (9-seed coming in, so likely in, 3-pt underdog to Texas Tech) --
6. B - Louisville: The Cardinals will be an unlikely choice without a win over Florida State. (last four in, but win over Fl State Wed probably put them in, 9-pt underdog to UVa) --
7. D - Marquette: Beat DePaul and Villanova; anything less won't be enough. (stayed alive with win over DePaul, but Lunardi believes need win over Nova – first four OUT – Nova favored by 11)
8. D - Mississippi State/LSU: Winner of this second-round game must reach the SEC final. (LSU favored by 1)
9. C - Notre Dame: The path for the Irish includes two victories with a healthy Bonzie Colson.(8 pt underdog to Duke, but win over Va Tech might get them in)
10. B - Oklahoma: Sooners are on the bubble but will be in the NCAA tournament. (Out of Big 12 but probably still in)--
11. D- Oklahoma State: Must beat Oklahoma on Wednesday and maybe Kansas a third time to get in because of a weak nonconference record. (5-pt underdog to Kansas and might need that to get in)
12. B - Providence: The Friars' combination of great wins and ugly losses makes their quarterfinal with Creighton a necessary insurance policy. (5-pt underdog to Creighton and might need it) --
13. F - Syracuse: The Orange have to beat Wake Forest (Tuesday) and North Carolina (Wednesday) hopefully loss to UNC Wed knocked them out).
14. A - Texas: The danger in playing the last-place team is losing; the Longhorns make it with a win. (win over Iowa State Wed probably put them in) --
15. B - USC and UCLA: Neither can afford a loss in the conference semifinals. (both in but need to win Thursday plus one more to stay in) -- --
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https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Bracketville updated this morning. They have us as at the top of the Last Four In.
Last Four Byes
Providence (CREI then XAV/SJU)
Saint Mary's (DONE)
UCLA (STAN then COLO/ZONA)
Oklahoma (DONE)
Last Four In
Marquette (NOVA then HALL/BUT)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (UVA then CLEM/BC)
Oklahoma State (KU then KSST/TCU)
First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DUKE then MIA/UNC)
Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (MSST then TENN)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)
A loss to Nova won't push us down. Assuming this is correct (BIG assumption)...the only four teams that are currently out that could catch us are USC, Notre Dame, Alabama, and LSU....and I don't think LSU gets in ahead of us given the head to head record unless they win three in the SEC tournament.
We currently have a three team buffer but all three teams are still alive. Every team in the Last Four In is a significant underdog today. If chalk holds, we should keep our three team buffer. Of course, UCLA losing to Stanford may be enough to drop them below us so we might have a four team buffer.
I think three of the four teams that could catch us will be favored today...but I also think that none of those wins are good enough to elevate them above us, so they will likely need to win two. If Notre Dame beats Duke that might be enough.
Also can't rule out the bid thieves. The ACC, Big East, PAC 12, SEC, MWC, AAC, and possibly CUSA are still capable of producing a bid thief. I wouldn't expect more than 2 and am thinking it will be 1 or less.
No real conclusion to this post, just some random mumblings about one of the more accurate bracketolgists. Let's just beat Nova and have all the other bubble teams lose to remove all doubt.
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Language sure is changing regarding MU on ESPN's bubble watch
Work to do
Marquette (19-12, 9-9 Big East)
(BPI: 45 | SOS: 12 | SOR: 42 | RPI: 56)
Not only is it the case that Marquette might make the NCAA tournament, the Golden Eagles might have already done so. Season sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall, a .500 record in the Big East (same as Butler) could get the job done.
Then again, Marquette can end any speculation by taking down Villanova in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. A win against the Wildcats could elevate Marquette all the way to a single-digit seed.
So do we really want to lose tonight so we can avoid the 8/9 seed?
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https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Bracketville updated this morning. They have us as at the top of the Last Four In.
Last Four Byes
Providence (CREI then XAV/SJU)
Saint Mary's (DONE)
UCLA (STAN then COLO/ZONA)
Oklahoma (DONE)
Last Four In
Marquette (NOVA then HALL/BUT)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (UVA then CLEM/BC)
Oklahoma State (KU then KSST/TCU)
First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DUKE then MIA/UNC)
Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (MSST then TENN)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)
A loss to Nova won't push us down. Assuming this is correct (BIG assumption)...the only four teams that are currently out that could catch us are USC, Notre Dame, Alabama, and LSU....and I don't think LSU gets in ahead of us given the head to head record unless they win three in the SEC tournament.
We currently have a three team buffer but all three teams are still alive. Every team in the Last Four In is a significant underdog today. If chalk holds, we should keep our three team buffer. Of course, UCLA losing to Stanford may be enough to drop them below us so we might have a four team buffer.
I think three of the four teams that could catch us will be favored today...but I also think that none of those wins are good enough to elevate them above us, so they will likely need to win two. If Notre Dame beats Duke that might be enough.
Also can't rule out the bid thieves. The ACC, Big East, PAC 12, SEC, MWC, AAC, and possibly CUSA are still capable of producing a bid thief. I wouldn't expect more than 2 and am thinking it will be 1 or less.
No real conclusion to this post, just some random mumblings about one of the more accurate bracketolgists. Let's just beat Nova and have all the other bubble teams lose to remove all doubt.
Thanks TAMU. This paints a pretty positive picture about our situation. If all of Marquette, Baylor, Louisville and OK State lose today (as they'll be projected to do), this should all remain as is. I don't think any of those losses are bumping them out of the field, except for maybe OK State getting traded out for ASU, USC or perhaps ND if they beat Duke today (which I doubt they will do).
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Same. Where TF did they find this guy?
Your age is showing on your question.
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Your age is showing on your question.
Didn't realize it was the same dude. Put that together on the other thread. Looks like he'd dropped a few.
I used to watch that show, but I was about 13-15 when it ran.
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FS1 had to find another guy, since FOX let Stewart Mandel go last year.
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FS1 had to find another guy, since FOX let Stewart Mandel go last year.
Ya, he does brackets for The Athletic now.
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Late in the first half and Virginia is on pace to put up 70. If they reach that, not very many offensives will be able to catch them.
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Ya, he does brackets for The Athletic now.
Correct. Sounds like all the guys and gals who got laid off went to the Athletic. It's a pay site, I believe.
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Correct. Sounds like all the guys and gals who got laid off went to the Athletic. It's a pay site, I believe.
It is. And well worth the doe. Especially if you're a baseball fan.
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Yup. The common belief is that high majors will always have the chance to make up for a weak or disappointing non-con in the regular season. But with unbalanced schedules, a down year in the league can kill a team's chances.
Nebraska may well be good enough, but they accomplished nothing in non-con and didn't beat the teams that would be in the tournament with them, so I can't see any way they can justify their inclusion, except having 12 conference wins against non-tournament teams. You don't have to be in the Big 10 to do that.
I think the B1G was hurt more by losing a week of non-con versus being big with misaligned team play.
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TWITTER TRACKA
Wild tweet from ESPN analytics:
St. John's could go from 15% chance to make the tournament to 77% with a win over Xavier per espn.com/bpi . St. John's is only 16-16 but already has the best pair of wins in the country per BPI (Duke & at Villanova).
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TWITTER TRACKA
Wild tweet from ESPN analytics:
That'd be some bull if they got in over us
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TWITTER TRACKA
Wild tweet from ESPN analytics:
BPI is fu**in' stupid.
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TWITTER TRACKA
Wild tweet from ESPN analytics:
Lol. If they lose they are ineligible for the NIT
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I think the B1G was hurt more by losing a week of non-con versus being big with misaligned team play.
They didn’t really lose a week of non-conference play, they just played a very compressed schedule.
Next year they will go to a 20 game conference schedule, which will eliminate a week of noncon.
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I haven’t put together the numbers on Oklahoma’s last 10 games or so, but wow! They’ve got to be living on the edge and makes one wonder if trae would be a big reason they would still get in...I mean people want to see him play, but put away his inner Westbrook and be more like a John Stockton. Oklahoma at 18-13?
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Alabama gonna win
A&M back to trash
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Alabama gonna win
A&M back to trash
Did nobody learn anything yesterday about calling games at halftime. I'm not even willing to say the Louisville's gonna lose yet.
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The Big East getting 8 teams into the tourney came to a halt today with St. John’s losing.
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I haven’t put together the numbers on Oklahoma’s last 10 games or so, but wow! They’ve got to be living on the edge and makes one wonder if trae would be a big reason they would still get in...I mean people want to see him play, but put away his inner Westbrook and be more like a John Stockton. Oklahoma at 18-13?
I am probably setting Oklahoma up for a run to the Final Four but I don't understand the love for this team. They are 4-11 in their last 15 and went on an 6 game losing streak. If you look at their non-conference schedule they won against a bubble team of USC, a good victory against Wichita state and then wins over a bunch of non-contenters. They had a losing record in conference with the highlights being wins of a tanking TCU x2 and one at home against Texas Tech
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A&M is pretty terrible. TCU looks pretty terrible without Jaylen Fisher too.
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Need TCU to win this
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Bracketmatrix.com now updated with MU as 1st team out.
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Did nobody learn anything yesterday about calling games at halftime. I'm not even willing to say the Louisville's gonna lose yet.
Apparently you aren’t watching
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Apparently you aren’t watching
honestly not sure why A&M should be so safe with all their injuries and suspensions.
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TCU is god awful
We can’t get any help
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honestly not sure why A&M should be so safe with all their injuries and suspensions.
They shouldn’t be they also suck
But they are deemed very safe so need them to win
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Bracketmatrix.com now updated with MU as 1st team out.
Yes, but we went from appearing in 40 of 96 brackets to appearing in 42 of 80.
So we got that going for us... which is nice.
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TCU dude passes up the 3 to take a 24 foot fade away 2
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Wow TCU hits a 3 to tie at the buzzer. Looks like he got it off with 0.1 left.
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At the buzzer!! OT!!
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To me Kansas State has been by far the better team today. But maybe TCU can pull a tough 5 minutes out here.
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TCU dude passes up the 3 to take a 24 foot fade away 2
You should know the college 3 is 20’9”. Pro is 23’9”.
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Apparently you aren’t watching
Which game? The one with 10 minutes left, or the one that hadnt gone final when I posted
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Which game? The one with 10 minutes left, or the one that hadnt gone final when I posted
The A&M debacle
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Neither of these 2 teams in their current state, TCU or Kansas State, are better than Marquette
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Neither of these 2 teams in their current state, TCU or Kansas State, are better than Marquette
Agreed.
TCU with Fisher(albino kid) is very nice
With Robinson? Yikes. Guy sucks
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The A&M debacle
Not watching, but see that's it's a 4 point game
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A&M's best guard just went out with an injury
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Robinson again
God he’s fu cking bad
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Robinson again
God he’s fu cking bad
Hahahaha and again
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Woah, a&m is atrocious. This team in its current form has no business being in the tournament. Maybe they can get lucky here but I doubt it
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a&m up 1 4 seconds
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Quite an ending to this game.
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ICE COLD.
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Damn it.
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Unreal. No pressure on the ball.
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Gonna have to win tonight
Zero help
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Big F this afternoon. No help
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That's unreal. No resistance at all.
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Guess almost no choice but beat Nova
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Roll Eat My Ass Tide.
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Guess almost no choice but beat Nova
This just isn't true.
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Nova is currently a must win
Every other bubble teams getting big W's
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unnatural carnal knowledgeing unbelievable
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That doesn't put Bama in but it keeps them alive. Gotta deny Sexton there. Just terrible.
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Nova is currently a must win
No?
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Bad results for us so far other than Louisville. But I still think Bama needs to win one more no matter how hard Lunardi tries to push them. Lose tomorrow and they are 18-15. Don't believe any team has ever got an at large bid at less than 4 games over .500
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No thanks to TCU and A&M today. Wow.
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Pretty much exactly the way we played Georgetown at the end. wide open layup
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No thanks to TCU and A&M today. Wow.
is Kansas State really on the Bubble? I feel like most brackets have them at an 8 or 9 seed?
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TCU is god awful
We can’t get any help
K State was getting in regardless. No way a 10 win B12 team was getting left out.
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K State was getting in regardless. No way a 10 win B12 team was getting left out.
Agree, so at this point Bama won, L'Ville lost. what other bubble games have taken place that hurt us?
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Big F this afternoon. No help
Louisville lose was big.
K State was gettin in regardless.
Bama win hurts, but they’ve gotta be behind us still.
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Agree, so at this point Bama won, L'Ville lost. what other bubble games have taken place that hurt us?
None, St. Johns would have been a bid thief, VCU winning helped RPI, next big game is Kansas OKST. Go Jayhawks. Also have Nevada vs Las Vegas, we want Nevada to win that. and Georgia over Missou would help RPI. That'd be it for the morning session.
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None, St. Johns would have been a bid thief, VCU winning helped RPI, next big game is Kansas OKST. Go Jayhawks. Also have Nevada vs Las Vegas, we want Nevada to win that. and Georgia over Missou would help RPI. That'd be it for the morning session.
Creighton over PC is big.
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None, St. Johns would have been a bid thief, VCU winning helped RPI, next big game is Kansas OKST. Go Jayhawks. Also have Nevada vs Las Vegas, we want Nevada to win that. and Georgia over Missou would help RPI. That'd be it for the morning session.
So why is everyone losing their mind and declaring the NOVA game a " Must win"?
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So why is everyone losing their mind and declaring the NOVA game a " Must win"?
It was like 2 posters. Read the username before making too much judgement on knee jerk reactions.
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Louisville lose was big.
K State was gettin in regardless.
Bama win hurts, but they’ve gotta be behind us still.
Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/
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Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/
I think they were in regardless. Their seed upside may be limited but I don't get they were getting left out. The big B12 game is Baylor
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Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/
Was just about to post this, obviously ever game carries different weight, but a minimal RPI boost means a lot more right now than it usually does. On the day we are currently 3-2 with Clemson up at half and CU up at half
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K State was getting in regardless. No way a 10 win B12 team was getting left out.
They have said conference record is less of a factor now
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Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/
Not really. And that’s per 1 source, TRank, which had them as a 10 seed. A loss to a projected 6 seed in OT isn’t moving then out. K State won 10 games in the B12, which is top to bottom best league in the country. Super weak non con holds them back quite a bit, but they weren’t getting left out reagardless of what happened today. No Q3 or Q4 losses. Just have very little seeding upside due to super weak Non con SOs.
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Creighton over PC is big.
Hope it moves them enough to a Q1 was close but not for sure
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Not really. And that’s per 1 source, TRank, which had them as a 10 seed. A loss to a projected 6 seed in OT isn’t moving then out. K State won 10 games in the B12, which is top to bottom best league in the country. Super weak non con holds them back quite a bit, but they weren’t getting left out reagardless of what happened today. No Q3 or Q4 losses. Just have very little seeding upside due to super weak Non con SOs.
That does not matter
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Hope it moves them enough to a Q1 was close but no for sure
Creighton needs to win 2 games (PC and X) to get into top 30 per RPI wizard as of this am.
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Creighton needs to win 2 games (PC and X) to get into top 30 per RPI wizard as of this am.
Think they are like 34 right now
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That does not matter
Jesus. Of that post this what you focus on? Unreal. Just going to move along. K State was in regardless. Disagree if you so please.
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Jesus. Of that post this what you focus on? Unreal. Just going to move along. K State was in regardless. Disagree if you so please.
Now they are in for sure, but a loss is a loss be it OT the committee won't care
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Big bubble games going on right now.
Cheering for:
Creighton
Arizona
Kansas
Nevada.
In my opinion that is ordered from least to most important. Nevada needs to win the MWC Tournament to prevent the first bid thief.
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They have said conference record is less of a factor now
Well yeah, conference record is less of a factor now, agreed. But all that means is they are looking at those wins and losses at the quality of them. And them being in the BIG12, those 10 wins are going to carry some weight.
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It was like 2 posters. Read the username before making too much judgement on knee jerk reactions.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/12HC8T8F01wqlO/giphy.gif)
Thanks guys...moment of panic. I'm better now Let's hope our boys still play like it's a must win though
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Thus far this is been a bad day for us bubble wise. Other than Ville loss, not good.
I am starting to think we really need to win tonight. A few more upsets and we are screwed if we lose tonight.
Don't want to be sweating on Sunday. Let's make it easy for the committee and do this.
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Kansas crapping its pants so far but still very early.
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Yes, but we went from appearing in 40 of 96 brackets to appearing in 42 of 80.
So we got that going for us... which is nice.
And a donut without a hole is just a danish.
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Since I'm ripping on teams being bad, I'll go the other way here. Oklahoma State looks legit and has every time I've watched them.
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Thus far this is been a bad day for us bubble wise. Other than Ville loss, not good.
I am starting to think we really need to win tonight. A few more upsets and we are screwed if we lose tonight.
Don't want to be sweating on Sunday. Let's make it easy for the committee and do this.
Louisville lost, Bama won. Bubble teams are 1-1. K-State was already in, VCU won, which helps, Creighton game is close, could go either way, Kansas needs to get it together but its the first half. If we lose tonight we'll all be sweating on Sunday regardless of what other teams do.
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Nevada is getting beat at half by UNLV. Down 8. That'd be a terrible result.
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Bid stealer alert.
UNLV leads Nevada 39-31 at halftime.
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Thus far this is been a bad day for us bubble wise. Other than Ville loss, not good.
I am starting to think we really need to win tonight. A few more upsets and we are screwed if we lose tonight.
Don't want to be sweating on Sunday. Let's make it easy for the committee and do this.
Pretty early to say that. Alabama winning was not helpful but there is a lot of basketball left to be played. Bottom line is that there is exactly one game today that truly matters.
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Creighton needs to win 2 games (PC and X) to get into top 30 per RPI wizard as of this am.
Do you think that when the Selection Committee is sitting in the room looking at team sheets for the last few teams around the bubble, that a Q1 win over RPI 29 will make much of (or any) difference compared a Q2 win over RPI 34?
I really don’t. I see those quadrants as a grouping for convenience but the Committee will look beyond them and recognize that a win over Creighton is nice, but not as nice as a win over a top 5 or top 10 team.
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Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/
I’m looking at this attachment and I’m not buying that if MU beats Villanova they will move up to an 8 seed. Teams don’t jump 15 places on the seed list because of one win.
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The most important game so far was Louisville losing to UVA. A win there would have pushed them above us. A loss likely locks them behind us.
Alabama beating TAMU was the second most important so far and it didn't go out way. Despite win, I think they are still behind us on the bubble, even if we lose. They need to win their next one to move past us IMHO.
VCU winning helps. Xavier winning is good but minimal impact. TCU would have been nice for potential seeding purposes but I agree with J5, they are likely in anyway.
1-1 in key games, 2-1 in other bubble games
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Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/
Agree - bama loss was the tough one. Espn said 99% chance of a bid with a win and 1% with a loss, so that was a bid taken away.
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Is Nevada potentially behind us if they lose?
What if they lose by a few vs a 20 point loss? Any difference?
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Nevada getting waxed
Kansas might lose to Okstate again
This is a nightmare day
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Nevada getting waxed
Kansas might lose to Okstate again
This is a nightmare day
Take a deep breath
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Nevada getting waxed
Kansas might lose to Okstate again
This is a nightmare day
You're scaring people. Nevada is down 5 early in the second half. Kansas is winning. Hardly at nightmare levels yet. There may come a time to freak out, but it is not now.
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Take a deep breath
No kidding, those two are both close games still. Plus Georgia currently up on Missouri - not bad.
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Do you think that when the Selection Committee is sitting in the room looking at team sheets for the last few teams around the bubble, that a Q1 win over RPI 29 will make much of (or any) difference compared a Q2 win over RPI 34?
I really don’t. I see those quadrants as a grouping for convenience but the Committee will look beyond them and recognize that a win over Creighton is nice, but not as nice as a win over a top 5 or top 10 team.
I think that "Visual" does make a difference. Certainly every team is an increment....but the Sheets are built for Visual comparison. I especially am concerned about Q3. Oklahoma has a lot going against it recently but look at the Q3,Q4....clean...no Red spots. A Q3 red makes a big difference....now MU has two...Georgia slipped into it...I sure wish GA was a Q2 loss at 75 not a Q3 loss at 80....big visual difference especially tagged with Depaul's red blotch.
Certainly they will dig and look at a lot of other factors...but comparing OK and MU, OK "looks" so much better.
Having said all that, if we can keep from getting blown out, we will be ok. Don't want a blowout in the committee minds when splitting hairs. I think we have a chance if we're not banged up.
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You're scaring people. Nevada is down 5 early in the second half. Kansas is winning. Hardly at nightmare levels yet. There may come a time to freak out, but it is not now.
Nevada was down 12
And might lose perfectly describes a 1 pt game
Also...there’s already been Bama and TCU(albeit not as much).
UL was a win for us but I don’t see us making it over them assuming a Nova loss
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Nevada getting waxed
Kansas might lose to Okstate again
This is a nightmare day
haha, just read this, checked the scores, and "Nevada getting waxed" means they're up by 1? ok
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Nevada was down 12
And might lose perfectly describes a 1 pt game
Also...there’s already been Bama and TCU(albeit not as much).
UL was a win for us but I don’t see us making it over them assuming a Nova loss
VCU also won, which helps. Clemson's gonna win to prevent a bid thief. Xavier won to prevent a bid thief. All I'm saying is pace yourself, If you already think the sky is falling, it's only gonna get worse, because before Sunday another bubble team will win a game
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Nevada getting waxed
Kansas might lose to Okstate again
This is a nightmare day
(https://media.giphy.com/media/V1yvdB9mWKDpC/giphy.gif)
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Im starting to envision these next few days ryder cup style. We went 1-1 in the morning pairings.
We are close in the afternoon groupings and we shall see for the night games.
Or maybe im just ready for golf season
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haha, just read this, checked the scores, and "Nevada getting waxed" means they're up by 1? ok
-- Hi, Welcome to the MUScoop Salon and Spa. What kind of waxing would you like today?
-- Mmm, let's go with "The DePaul"
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-- Hi, Welcome to the MUScoop Salon and Spa. What kind of waxing would you like today?
-- Mmm, let's go with "The DePaul"
"The DePaul" is the a$$hole waxing, right?
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"The DePaul" is the a$$hole waxing, right?
No because you are probably into that.....I'm pretty sure it be some sort of taint waxing if that is a thing
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That overturn of possession in Providence/Creighton was awful. Both refs and announcers missed where the Creighton player stepped out of bounds then touched the ball.
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Umm it's 1535 and both Nevada and Kansas are now winning....not all is lost I guess.
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That overturn of possession in Providence/Creighton was awful. Both refs and announcers missed where the Creighton player stepped out of bounds then touched the ball.
Yeah that was terrible. Only thing I could think of was that the ref made the call before the ball actually went out of bounds. He made the call initially as if it hit the line, so can they only review that far? Idk.
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Umm it's 1535 and both Nevada and Kansas are now winning....not all is lost I guess.
Throw in a Clemson Win, Arizona winning, and hopefully Creighton can hold on. The sky might stay up there after all.
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That overturn of possession in Providence/Creighton was awful. Both refs and announcers missed where the Creighton player stepped out of bounds then touched the ball.
Just posted the same in the TV thread. How could everyone miss that. I just kept yelling at the TV. How stupid. They even had a replay they they stopped just as the CU player was touching the ball out of bounds. Weird.
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I'm not very familiar with the quadrants system, but could a UGA win move them from Q3 to Q2?
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Nice rebounding creighton
Even better offense at the end
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I'm not very familiar with the quadrants system, but could a UGA win move them from Q3 to Q2?
Yes.
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I'm not very familiar with the quadrants system, but could a UGA win move them from Q3 to Q2?
Yes, but I think they have to win today and tomorrow for it to be a sure thing.
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Yes, but I think they have to win today and tomorrow for it to be a sure thing.
And here I thought it was yesterday and today. Well...someone will do the maths :)
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one thing in our favor is a winning record away and neutral court. That will help. none of the teams around us have a winning record.
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Creighton just getting out worked
Kansas looking much better
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And here I thought it was yesterday and today. Well...someone will do the maths :)
As far as I can tell its February 32nd so I'm not sure we can count on me for anything
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Yeah that was terrible. Only thing I could think of was that the ref made the call before the ball actually went out of bounds. He made the call initially as if it hit the line, so can they only review that far? Idk.
I hope that was the reason for it, because it was so, so obvious.
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Nevada now up 8 on CBSSN.
I hope others have multiple t.v. set up. 8-) 8-)
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Arizona and Kansas both up double digits now.
PC deserves to win this though, even though that was the weakest bailout call on Hegner
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Arizona and Kansas both up double digits now.
PC deserves to win this though, even though that was the weakest bailout call on Hegner
That call was awful
But providence just out working and out toughing them
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Wow. Touch foul just called on Hegner to send Providence to line. Brutal.
Providence converts 4 FTs in a row. Up 4 in OT now. But. FTs no matta. Lolz
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Maybe Creighton shouldn’t foul them every possesion. That was like four in a row, last one abit touchy though
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Wow what a shot by Cartwright.
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Jesus Providence is worse at free throws then we are at defense
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Here comes UNLV
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Brick
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Deja Vu
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That looked like the end of the Marquette game.
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Let's go Nevada, you still have two more games to win before we don't care about you
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Do you think that when the Selection Committee is sitting in the room looking at team sheets for the last few teams around the bubble, that a Q1 win over RPI 29 will make much of (or any) difference compared a Q2 win over RPI 34?
I really don’t. I see those quadrants as a grouping for convenience but the Committee will look beyond them and recognize that a win over Creighton is nice, but not as nice as a win over a top 5 or top 10 team.
Agreed. I've said it before, but I think the committee just came out with the quadrant thing this year to try to better underscore how they evaluate (and value) wins and losses. I don't think anything has changed.
And no, because Creighton lost a nailed biter and own home win over them will not be Q1, I don't think the sweep over them is looked at any differently than if they won today.
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Nevada getting waxed
Kansas might lose to Okstate again
This is a nightmare day
[/quote
This did not age well.
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I think that "Visual" does make a difference. Certainly every team is an increment....but the Sheets are built for Visual comparison. I especially am concerned about Q3. Oklahoma has a lot going against it recently but look at the Q3,Q4....clean...no Red spots. A Q3 red makes a big difference....now MU has two...Georgia slipped into it...I sure wish GA was a Q2 loss at 75 not a Q3 loss at 80....big visual difference especially tagged with Depaul's red blotch.
Certainly they will dig and look at a lot of other factors...but comparing OK and MU, OK "looks" so much better.
Having said all that, if we can keep from getting blown out, we will be ok. Don't want a blowout in the committee minds when splitting hairs. I think we have a chance if we're not banged up.
Georgia 6 minutes away from being a Q2 game again, but as I said a few posts above, I don't think it really matters one way or the other. The committee isn't going to change the way they analyze that game based on a 5-10 swing in RPI.
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PC wins.
But Nevada holds on, Kansas has it under control (up 14 with 6:08 left) against Oklahoma State. And Arizona will beat Colorado barring a huge collapse.
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So, Oklahoma State loses to Kansas.
Will the Selection Committee really take the 9th team from the B12 when it has an RPI in the upper 80’s?
This would be unprecedented on a couple of levels and I think would shatter the record for highest RPI for an at large team. Some good wins on their record but some serious warts, including a horrible OOC SOS.
I say out.
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So, Oklahoma State loses to Kansas.
Will the Selection Committee really take the 9th team from the B12 when it has an RPI in the upper 80’s?
This would be unprecedented on a couple of levels and I think would shatter the record for highest RPI for an at large team. Some good wins on their record but some serious warts, including a horrible OOC SOS.
I say out.
I think they're in. I don't think it would be ahead of MU regardless of tonight. I could see Dayton....and if that's the case, hope to avoid them.
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Georgia up 2. Missouri ball. 10 seconds left. Bulldogs just missed 2 free throws. I honly caught the last 5 minutes, but Georgia has done everything in their power to lose this game, other than a couple huge boards.
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REALLY GEORGIA? Missing 4 free throws with 10 seconds left to put them
Up 3?
Missouri has a chance now to win with 8 seconds left.
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Gotta make dem throw bubbi!!!
C’mon Dawgz!!
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UGa dodges a bullet.
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Georgia holds on. Mizzou misses wide open 3.
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Missing Open Threes at the Buzzer seems to be happening a lot these last 2 days
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He was wide open
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Georgia holds on. Mizzou misses wide open 3.
Deja vu all over again.
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Missing Open Threes at the Buzzer seems to be happening a lot these last 2 days
;D
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so minus the Bama game, has everything else fallen our way?
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No...Biggest one was Creighton and they lost in OT to Providence. KState beat TCU as well
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#FTsNoMatta
I think Oklahoma State is O U T
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Roll Eat My Ass Tide.
Roll Eat My Ass Tide (I Won't Eat My Ass)
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Roll Eat My Ass Tide (I Won't Eat My Ass)
Go**amn Millenials.
No...Biggest one was Creighton and they lost in OT to Providence. KState beat TCU as well
Creighton would have needed to beat X tomorrow for any major impact on us.
Georgia's win locks them in to the top 75. Goodbye, Q3 loss.
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No...Biggest one was Creighton and they lost in OT to Providence. KState beat TCU as well
I don't think PC and Creighton game was that critical. Certainly wanted Creighton to win, but its not really significant
Already mentioned it previously in this thread so trying not to be repetitive, but K State was only discussed as bubble team loosely. I strongly believe they were a solidly 8-10 range from the cutline and that loss would not have bumped them out of the field.
Bama is really the only BAD result. And IMO, they need another at least to feel good.
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OK, so going back to TAMU's earlier post...
We still want UCLA, Baylor, USC, ND and LSU to lose. Anyone else? (besides Nova)
Last Four Byes
Providence (CREI then XAV/SJU)
Saint Mary's (DONE)
UCLA (STAN then COLO/ZONA)
Oklahoma (DONE)
Last Four In
Marquette (NOVA then HALL/BUT)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (UVA then CLEM/BC)
Oklahoma State (KU then KSST/TCU)
First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DUKE then MIA/UNC)
Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (MSST then TENN)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)
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OK, so going back to TAMU's earlier post...
We still want UCLA, Baylor, USC, ND and LSU to lose. Anyone else? (besides Nova)
LSU beating Mississippi State would be the preferred result. Not critical, however.
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#FTsNoMatta
I think Oklahoma State is O U T
JB - curious why you think that. 5 top 50 wins, 3 away from home. 2-1 versus Kansas. No bad losses. RPI is ugly. Non con SOS is super ugly. But its not like they played all cupcakes. 5 RPI top 75 opponents. Numbers are skewed. I'd put them in Dayton - think they're worthy, and definitely look like a tourney team to me.
I don't put them in over Marquette or several other teams around the bubble, but I'd definitely take them over St. Marys, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Cuse, ND, Nebraksa, Penn State, etc.
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I would say in order the most important games are:
1a. Notre Dame
1b. Baylor
3. USC
4. UCLA
5. LSU
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He was wide open
If he was more open then Struz then they were sitting on the bench
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JB - curious why you think that. 5 top 50 wins, 3 away from home. 2-1 versus Kansas. No bad losses. RPI is ugly. Non con SOS is super ugly. But its not like they played all cupcakes. 5 RPI top 75 opponents. Numbers are skewed. I'd put them in Dayton - think they're worthy, and definitely look like a tourney team to me.
I don't put them in over Marquette or several other teams around the bubble, but I'd definitely take them over St. Marys, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Cuse, ND, Nebraksa, Penn State, etc.
Mostly due to me thinking the committee members just can't get off of RPI. They're see them coming up in the 80s on the team sheets and have a big issue with it. Punish them for scheduling so many crappiest of the crappy opponents. Wouldn't be surprised either way, but if I had to gamble on it, I'd choose out.
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Mostly due to me thinking the committee members just can't get off of RPI. They're see them coming up in the 80s on the team sheets and have a big issue with it. Punish them for scheduling so many crappiest of the crappy opponents. Wouldn't be surprised either way, but if I had to gamble on it, I'd choose out.
I get that. I may be giving the committee too much credit. But I hope they can see through that at this point.
Don't misunderstand me, if OSU gets left out I don't think it is some injustice. Their cupcakes were double frosted. But if we're trying to put in the teams that competed at a high level against tournament quality teams, they pass that test as one of the last couple entrants. B12 is getting at least 8 teams. I'd take them over Oklahoma. Texas and Baylor not safe yet. I think 3 of those 4 teams ultimately get a bid.
I reserve the right to change my mind pending the remaining conference tourney results, but as of now I'd have OSU in.
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Fin Alabama 😫😫
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Ucla won, nd and Texas trail at half. Go duke, go Texas tech
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MTSU losing by 5 with 5 to go. Could mean a bid thief.
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Not good. MTSU.
UCLA gets win
Texas coming back. Need them to lose.
Hopefully UCLA stays dead
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Nova is so good. It’s crazy.
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MTSU is 4-6 vs the top 100 no chance they get in 1-3 vs top 50
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MTSU is 4-6 vs the top 100 no chance they get in 1-3 vs top 50
We can stop watching bubble teams the rest of the weekend, MU is NOT getting in..and even if they do, it will be in Dayton..oh goodie.
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We can stop watching bubble teams the rest of the weekend, MU is NOT getting in..and even if they do, it will be in Dayton..oh goodie.
Did you just get appointed to the committee? If not your opinion means nothing
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Providence converts 4 FTs in a row. Up 4 in OT now. But. FTs no matta. Lolz
Uhh...you realize Creighton hit a higher percentage of FTs today, right? Because this post literally could not be any more stupid.
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Uhh...you realize Creighton hit a higher percentage of FTs today, right? Because this post literally could not be any more stupid.
Lolz
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MTSU is 4-6 vs the top 100 no chance they get in 1-3 vs top 50
Would have preferred not to test this theory. But MTSU lost. Better now than in the final after racking up 2 more wins though
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Only post I am going to make in here tonight.
Not all is lost. We still have a chance. 50/50 proposition.
Beating Nova was always a prayer. That’s the best team in the country.
We’ll see what Sunday brings. Dayton wouldn’t surprise me.
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Texas loses to a team far worse than nova. Nd loses to a team that's a best equal to nova. Texas may still get in ahead of us, but no way nd does.
Flip a coin, that's where we're at
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I just don’t see how we make it unless the committee is way different then what most everyone thinks
Will love to be wrong tho. Not impossible
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Ha. Don't get it? Many on here we're talking today about how we are likely in and we want certain teams to lose to solidify us in.
80% of those teams lose so far today and now because we lose to a number 1 seed (which was expected) a bunch of people are writing us off. Interesting.
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Jon Rothstein says on Twitter that MTSU is likely headed to the NIT
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Last Four Byes
Providence (PAST US)
Saint Mary's (PAST US)
UCLA (PAST US)
Oklahoma (PAST US)
Last Four In
Marquette (DONE)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (DONE)
Oklahoma State (DONE)
First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DONE)
Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (DONE)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)
Updating this from this morning. The teams ahead of us took care of business so they are permanently past us.
2/3 of teams in but behind us lost so they should be buffers for us now. Baylor losing to West Virginia would be huge. Give us a three team buffer.
Two of the teams out but chasing us lost (ND and LSU). USC is up early on Oregon State and Bama already beat TAMU. Even if both win, Louisville and Oklahoma State should be pushed out first.
Puts us right on the edge, no room for error. I also don't know where MTSU will fall in this category. I don't think they are at large worthy.
This is all based on one bracket of course, not the actual committee. We could already be safe or already out in their eyes, we don't know.
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Jon Rothstein says on Twitter that MTSU is likely headed to the NIT
The news here is he tweeted something other than his 20 ”catchphrases.”
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Jon Rothstein says on Twitter that MTSU is likely headed to the NIT
He's right. Their Q1 wins are marginal and they have some bad losses. No way I can see them ahead of us.
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Last Four Byes
Providence (PAST US)
Saint Mary's (PAST US)
UCLA (PAST US)
Oklahoma (PAST US)
Last Four In
Marquette (DONE)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (DONE)
Oklahoma State (DONE)
First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DONE)
Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (DONE)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)
Updating this from this morning. The teams ahead of us took care of business so they are permanently past us.
2/3 of teams in but behind us lost so they should be buffers for us now. Baylor losing to West Virginia would be huge. Give us a three team buffer.
Two of the teams out but chasing us lost (ND and LSU). USC is up early on Oregon State and Bama already beat TAMU. Even if both win, Louisville and Oklahoma State should be pushed out first.
Puts us right on the edge, no room for error. I also don't know where MTSU will fall in this category. I don't think they are at large worthy.
This is all based on one bracket of course, not the actual committee. We could already be safe or already out in their eyes, we don't know.
I would be surprised but not shocked to see a Dayton trip. I am afraid Alabama coming back does mean they are ahead of us. Wish they could count the Georgia win as a road win since it basically was.
As brew points out, our resume this year would have gotten us in any of the 10 years. The thing that worries me is the fact that they still had Oklahoma in the top 16 after a bit of a slide - and does that mean the committee shifted to put so much emphasis on a win or two against a very high level team might mean they shifted away from our resume.
I don't think anyone expected our seed to be nearly as high as it was last year, so let's hope the same is true this year and we get in.
If not, out very young team could learn from the nit.
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The Baylor v WV is currently the biggest game of the year. Let’s goooo Mountaineers
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The Baylor v WV is currently the biggest game of the year. Let’s goooo Mountaineers
Channel?
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Channel?
ESPN2
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ESPN2
Thanks.
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Maybe someone should start a Bubble Watch 2019 thread now. Never too early to get the hype started.
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I think they're in. I don't think it would be ahead of MU regardless of tonight. I could see Dayton....and if that's the case, hope to avoid them.
Maybe when I say “out” I should say “below Marquette” instead because that’s how I’m looking at these other teams now. If MU is out, then I think Okie State should be too.
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WVU somehow up 6 after playing some of the worst offensive basketball that i have ever seen.
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Lunardi has MTSU as last four in and somehow bumped us to second of first four out.
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Maybe the most interesting one to me is Saint Mary's...most think they are in, but what if they aren't?? That essentially opens another spot for someone that wasn't expected before.
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WVU somehow up 6 after playing some of the worst offensive basketball that i have ever seen.
Another team that’s looked like trash most of the last 2 months
Hopefully they win today
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Lunardi has MTSU as last four in and somehow bumped us to second of first four out.
Where did he do this? Honestly I've been expecting this for a few days. Puts us lower to pump up other teams on his network. Now that most of those teams has lost, he reorders them to be closer to the consensus so if we sneak in he looks a bit better. i think he moves us ahead of Alabama if they lose tomorrow too.
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Maybe the most interesting one to me is Saint Mary's...most think they are in, but what if they aren't?? That essentially opens another spot for someone that wasn't expected before.
Wouldn't shock me at all if St Marys is out.
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Maybe the most interesting one to me is Saint Mary's...most think they are in, but what if they aren't?? That essentially opens another spot for someone that wasn't expected before.
I can see the committee punishing them for a terrible SOS. They are one of the teams I would be happy seeing if we manage to find ourself in Dayton
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Where did he do this? Honestly I've been expecting this for a few days. Puts us lower to pump up other teams on his network. Now that most of those teams has lost, he reorders them to be closer to the consensus so if we sneak in he looks a bit better. i think he moves us ahead of Alabama if they lose tomorrow too.
They showed his updated bubble during halftime of WVU/Baylor on ESPN2.
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Wouldn't shock me at all if St Marys is out.
If Saint Mary’s is out MTSU has to be out. SMC has a better resume.
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Torvik has MU as the first team out. MTSU gets the last bid.
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They showed his updated bubble during halftime of WVU/Baylor on ESPN2.
thank you. I'm watching the game so I'm sure they will show it again afterwards
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Torvik has MU as the first team out. MTSU gets the last bid.
MTSU’s best wins are Murray State and Old Dominion.
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Palm still has MU safely in, and not even in Dayton
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/)
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Lets hope the committee thinks like Palm...maybe that’s his way of giving the finger to E$PN
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Palm still has MU safely in, and not even in Dayton
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/)
Unfortunately Palm has historically been one of the lesser bracketologists. But Lunardi hasn't been too much better. Myself as well as many others have been pumping up Dave Ommen all week, but he had us as the 4th last team in going into today. He has historically been THE BEST at projections.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
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Utah State up 3 on Boise State on CBSSN. 7 seconds left.
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Utah State up 3 on Boise State on CBSSN. 7 seconds left.
only sports channel I don't have.
Foul up 3, please.
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Boise State goes down to the Legends of Utah State.
2 positives.
1. This ends their slim hopes of an at large bid.
2. Easier path to the title for Nevada.
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I'm still bummed we got routed tonight, but this is still shaping up to be a fun night for college hoops. Butler and Seton Hall are in a tight game with 6 min to play, UNC overcame a 7 minute scoreless drought at the start of the game to mow be up 3 over Miami, and the SC v Arkansas game is a one possession game with 6 min to go.
Who doesn't love March?
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Don't have their full resume in from too me, but I think we would get in ahead of a four games over .500 Baylor team
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Don't have their full resume in from too me, but I think we would get in ahead of a four games over .500 Baylor team
Heres their team sheet..before this loss to WVU..http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Baylor
Speaking of teams 4 games over .500..I think I heard Palm say today..that only ONE team in the history of the tourney has ever gotten an at large berth being 4 games over .500 or less..that was Vandy a couple years ago
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Back of napkin I believe with no bids stolen, we'd need to be picked ahead of 4 of these 9 teams:
St Mary's, Baylor, Flo state, Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Texas.
Any stolen bids (eg Nevada not winning their tournament) means we need to beat 5 of these 9 etc.
Does this look right?
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Maybe the most interesting one to me is Saint Mary's...most think they are in, but what if they aren't?? That essentially opens another spot for someone that wasn't expected before.
Sec network is running all out pretty war on at Mary's.
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Back of napkin I believe with no bids stolen, we'd need to be picked ahead of 4 of these 9 teams:
St Mary's, Baylor, Flo state, Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Texas.
Any stolen bids (eg Nevada not winning their tournament) means we need to beat 5 of these 9 etc.
Does this look right?
I think we get in over Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Baylor, and ND. Maybe St. Marys. Hopefully no bid stealers.
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Also Alabama?
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Looking at palm having us as an 11 seed without a Dayton trip, only 2 of the 9 teams that would be chasing us have more q1 wins.
Oklahoma 6
Alabama 5
Marquette 4
USC 4
As long as q1 wins suffice and we don't need to have really knocked off a top 10 team, we do stack up well.
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Speaking of teams 4 games over .500..I think I heard Palm say today..that only ONE team in the history of the tourney has ever gotten an at large berth being 4 games over .500 or less..that was Vandy a couple years ago
Not sure about 4 games over teams, but 2001 Georgia is the only team with less than a 4 game difference team that got in when they had a 16-14 record.
That team only played something ridiculous like 2 teams rated over 100 in the rpi that season
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Also Alabama?
Good catch - luckily I already have Auburn gear so will wear it tomorrow and hope. I did have them ahead if us, so we'd need to just beat 4 of these 10.
Maybe Texas a & Ms departures including Duane Wilson even put them in play.
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Lunardi apparently has us as 5th team out
LAST 4 BYES: Providence, USC, UCLA, Texas
LAST 4 IN: Oklahoma, Bama, MTSU, Louisville
FIRST 4 OUT: Oklahoma St, ND, Arizona St, Syracuse
NEXT 4 OUT: Marquette, Baylor, Penn St, Nebraska
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There is no case for MTSU ahead of us. None.
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I'm still bummed we got routed tonight, but this is still shaping up to be a fun night for college hoops. Butler and Seton Hall are in a tight game with 6 min to play, UNC overcame a 7 minute scoreless drought at the start of the game to mow be up 3 over Miami, and the SC v Arkansas game is a one possession game with 6 min to go.
Who doesn't love March?
Amen Brother Skianth. March is my Christmas
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ESPN Bubble Watch:
Bubble Watch nominates the Golden Eagles as the ultimate bubble boundary team of 2018. After losing to Villanova in the Big East tournament, they're almost perfectly positioned to be either the last team in or the first team out when the bracket is announced Sunday night.
With plenty of Champ Week basketball still to be played, the above description should spell bad news for Marquette. There should be plenty of eager bubble rivals still playing who are poised to bump the Golden Eagles out of the bracket.
With some cooperation from the hoops gods, Marquette may yet sneak in.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030618/one-game-season-tourney-hopefuls
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Oregon ends Utah's slim hopes. Tomorrow we want Arizona over UCLA and Oregon over USC. Most importantly we want the winner of Arizona/UCLA to win the tournament
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Updated with the late games
Last Four Byes
Providence (PAST US)
Saint Mary's (PAST US)
UCLA (PAST US)
Oklahoma (PAST US)
Last Four In
Marquette (DONE)
Baylor (DONE)
Louisville (DONE)
Oklahoma State (DONE)
First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DONE)
Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (DONE)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)
Baylor loses so that's another team not passing us in this bracketology. I don't think USC beating lowly Oregon State and Bama beating TAMU is enough to pass us but could be wrong. Utah and Boise State also lost so cross off two more fringe bubble contenders.
I think the only bubble teams still alive in conference tournaments are USC, Alabama, and Mississippi State. Cheer for Oregon, Auburn, Tennessee, and against all bid thiefs from here on out. Provided those three lose their next game and there are no bid thieves (still a tall order) then the committee will be picking 6 teams out of these 12:
Alabama
Arizona State
Baylor
Louisville
Marquette
Middle Tennessee State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Saint Mary's
Syracuse
USC
J5, maybe a blind resume game with these 12? I think they are all pretty close to each other at the moment.
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I don’t think there’s any reason to do blind resumes any more because it’s going to be easy to recognize who is who and I think it’s important to consider the quality of those Q1 wins and away game performance. Maybe a series of comparing MU to the other teams on the bubble to highlight resume strengths and weaknesses would be more helpful.
Even recognizing my bias I know how I come out on MU vs MTSU and MU vs SMC. But the Committee may want to address the complaints about loading the field with middling teams from the power conferences.
I think we have to be careful what we wish for on Oregon vs USC. An Oregon win obviously hurts USC, but USC could still be ahead of MU and it would put Oregon dangerously close to bid thievery.
The Mountain West (where Nevada must win), the A10 ( where Rhode Island or St Bonaventure must win) and the AAC (where Cincinnati, Wichita State, or Houston must win) also bear watching.
BTW, by my count, of the 11 teams you list, I think there is only room for 5 of those 11 to get in, even if there are no more bid thieves. That assumes that Providence, UCLA, USC, St. Bonaventure, and Texas are all in.
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Forgot USC somehow. Edited
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How are the Bonnies safe? If St Mary's and MTSU are on the bubble they should too
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Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I thought you were done paying attention to the bubble?
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ESPN sure doesn't like our chances.
Bracketology now has us in the next four out (5th team out overall).
From the game story against Villanova:
...The Golden Eagles, who needed the win to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, were a two-shooter show...
...Marquette: The Golden Eagles were doomed by a four-game losing streak in a six of eight streak that knocked them out of NCAA contention...
...Marquette will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and hope for a second-tier postseason bid... (Jeez, can't at least just say "will end up in the NIT")
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Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
MU beat them twice.
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ESPN sure doesn't like our chances.
Bracketology now has us in the next four out (5th team out overall).
From the game story against Villanova:
...The Golden Eagles, who needed the win to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, were a two-shooter show...
...Marquette: The Golden Eagles were doomed by a four-game losing streak in a six of eight streak that knocked them out of NCAA contention...
...Marquette will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and hope for a second-tier postseason bid... (Jeez, can't at least just say "will end up in the NIT")
I take that with a huge grain of salt. The Villanova would have done more than just put us in contention for a bid. It would have locked us up.
Lunardi has been down on us and I think he’s going to be wrong on us. Assuming the tournaments go chalk the rest of the way and no stolen bids, I think we will at worst be one of the first two teams out.
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ESPN sure doesn't like our chances.
Bracketology now has us in the next four out (5th team out overall).
From the game story against Villanova:
...The Golden Eagles, who needed the win to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, were a two-shooter show...
...Marquette: The Golden Eagles were doomed by a four-game losing streak in a six of eight streak that knocked them out of NCAA contention...
...Marquette will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and hope for a second-tier postseason bid... (Jeez, can't at least just say "will end up in the NIT")
ESPNs opinion is about as relevant as ours. Not sure how you make those comments about MU but still have Oklahoma or Alabama in the field. Oh wait....I know why.
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I see 15 teams fighting for 10 spots
St Bonaventure
FSU
Texas
USC
UCLA
St Mary's
ASU
Baylor
LVille
Oklahoma
Marquette
Bama
OKSt
ND
MTSU
To me ASU and OK should be out, both have played awful the past 2 months. Yes nice wins early but what have you done for me lately. Baylor and FSU do not do anything for me either.
I am sure many fan bases are saying MU does nothing for them as well.
What will they look at Road wins? RPI? SOS? Q1 wins? Q3 or 4 losses? MU looks good in all but big Q1 wins
That said been a great week of hoops always one of my favorite weeks of the year!!
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Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Intriguing
This shows a 4-team cushion. I just find it hard to believe we get in over USC, UCLA, Creighton, St. Mary's, Louisville, Florida St., ASU, and OK St.
Just feels like the committe will find any reason possible to keep the 7th place Big East team out. I woul LOVE to be wrong. Maybe they'd like to see us vs. Oklahoma in a first-to-100 shootout in Dayton
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Palm still has us in as an 11.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
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https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Bracketville, which had MU 3 teams inside the cut line yesterday, has them as the second team out now.
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Palm still has us in as an 11.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
I really wish Palm wasn't terrible at this, but I hope he's right!
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Intriguing
This shows a 4-team cushion. I just find it hard to believe we get in over USC, UCLA, Creighton, St. Mary's, Louisville, Florida St., ASU, and OK St.
Just feels like the committe will find any reason possible to keep the 7th place Big East team out. I woul LOVE to be wrong. Maybe they'd like to see us vs. Oklahoma in a first-to-100 shootout in Dayton
The head of the committee is the Creighton AD. If anything, we'll have a leg up being a BE team.
If 7, 8, 9 of the Big 12 are in contention, why not 7 in the BE?
USC, St. Mary's, and Middle Tennessee have a combined total of 1 win against teams seeded 11 or better in Bracketmatrix. MU has 5.
I really think MU's resume is being undervalued by most bracket projections. We might not make it, but there are plenty of reasons to give Marquette a bid.
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Just feels like the committe will find any reason possible to keep the 7th place Big East team out. I woul LOVE to be wrong. Maybe they'd like to see us vs. Oklahoma in a first-to-100 shootout in Dayton
Why other than self-image issues? Objectively there are plenty of reasons that MU can be included and being the 7th team in the 2nd best league in the country is not really an objective reason not to include us.
The committee won't have an issue including the 7 or 8 Big East teams if that many teams meet the ranking criteria they consider important. Here's the key, almost literally the only criteria we lose out on against other bubble teams on is the number of Q1 wins or at least "sexy" Q1 wins. All other metrics we are equal or better than bubble teams.
If we don't make the dance it will be because the committee deemed beating really good teams as the number 1 metric and will have nothing to do with where we finished or how many teams are in from the Big East.
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I think you nailed it. If they look at the numbers over the course of the season, I think MU gets in. If they place major emphasis on having a "signature" win(s), then MU is on the outside looking in.
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There are objective reasons to include Marquette. There are objective reasons to exclude Marquette. We just don't know what the committee will emphasize. We find out Sunday.
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Screw Lunardi. He's been subtlely trolling the Big East all year.
I don't know if we will be in or not but we have as good a case as all these other bubble teams. I won't be mad if we don't get in but the annoying part to me is that we were 5-3 against Creighton, Providence, Butler and Seton Hall and they all appear to be safely in the field.
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Why other than self-image issues? Objectively there are plenty of reasons that MU can be included and being the 7th team in the 2nd best league in the country is not really an objective reason not to include us.
The committee won't have an issue including the 7 or 8 Big East teams if that many teams meet the ranking criteria they consider important. Here's the key, almost literally the only criteria we lose out on against other bubble teams on is the number of Q1 wins or at least "sexy" Q1 wins. All other metrics we are equal or better than bubble teams.
If we don't make the dance it will be because the committee deemed beating really good teams as the number 1 metric and will have nothing to do with where we finished or how many teams are in from the Big East.
I agree with you. I just don't trust the committee.
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I agree with you. I just don't trust the committee.
Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean people aren't out to get you.
(http://static2.fjcdn.com/comments/Its+funny+because+that+concert+wouldn+t+even+be+worth+that+_54a99842bcc8a829565307879c6ee37b.jpg)
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Screw Lunardi. He's been subtlely trolling the Big East all year.
I don't know if we will be in or not but we have as good a case as all these other bubble teams. I won't be mad if we don't get in but the annoying part to me is that we were 5-3 against Creighton, Providence, Butler and Seton Hall and they all appear to be safely in the field.
I also can't believe any other team played 6 no.1 seeds, which could happen with Nova 3 times, Xavier 2 and purdue 1.
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I also can't believe any other team played 6 no.1 seeds, which could happen with Nova 3 times, Xavier 2 and purdue 1.
Possibly St John's if Duke lands on the 1 line. Xavier 3 times, Nova 2 times, Duke 1. Obviously they aren't in the bubble conversation, though.
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I also can't believe any other team played 6 no.1 seeds, which could happen with Nova 3 times, Xavier 2 and purdue 1.
I agree with this, 7 of Marquette's losses are to RPI top 14 teams. 6 to RPI top 9.
But Purdue isn't getting a 1 seed. I think the last #1 is down to either Duke or Kansas, whoever wins their conference tourney.
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Why other than self-image issues? Objectively there are plenty of reasons that MU can be included and being the 7th team in the 2nd best league in the country is not really an objective reason not to include us.
The committee won't have an issue including the 7 or 8 Big East teams if that many teams meet the ranking criteria they consider important. Here's the key, almost literally the only criteria we lose out on against other bubble teams on is the number of Q1 wins or at least "sexy" Q1 wins. All other metrics we are equal or better than bubble teams.
If we don't make the dance it will be because the committee deemed beating really good teams as the number 1 metric and will have nothing to do with where we finished or how many teams are in from the Big East.
I have been saying that all we stack up very well.
Do this with comparison with the teams around us and you will see
cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison
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I have been saying that all we stack up very well.
Do this with comparison with the teams around us and you will see
cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison
That's the hard part. Comparable to the other bubble teams, definitely yes. Just not clearly better.
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Yes, they’ve lost 7 times to top 14 teams. They’re also 5-4 vs. tournament teams not in the top 10, or 5-3 vs. teams not in top 15. That’s pretty damn good and shows they deserve to be in the play-in game if you ask me.
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FWIW, avg opp RPI of Quad I losses: #mubb 8.5; Louisville 15.2; Alabama 34.0; Oklahoma 35.8.
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FWIW, avg opp RPI of Quad I losses: #mubb 8.5; Louisville 15.2; Alabama 34.0; Oklahoma 35.8.
I like it. Does the committee view that way?
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URI and Cinci, both up at half, although neither lead looks too comfortable. We cant afford any bid thiefs
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MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.
My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Via Kerry Miller Twitter
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Thanks TAMU Eagle and wisblue for your posts to help me sort out the 13 potentials vying for 7 spots. The tables are much easier to read with the explanation at the link, but here is the breakdown.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html
7 of 13 Palm Lunardi Matrix SOR Dance Ave. Today
Alabama 10 5 9 11 1 7.2 Auburn Noon +6
Arizona State 9 10 6 13 11 9.8 Done
Baylor 12 13 8 4 10 9.4 Done
Louisville 5 7 7 3 9 6.2 Done
Marquette 3 12 10 2 5 6.4 Done
MTSU 8 6 4 6 2 5.2 Done
Notre Dame 11 9 13 10 13 11.2 Done
Oklahoma 4 4 1 1 3 2.6 Done
Oklahoma State 13 8 11 5 12 9.8 Done
Saint Mary's 2 3 5 7 8 5 Done
Syracuse 7 11 12 9 4 8.6 Done
USC 6 1 2 12 6 5.4 Oregon 10:30 pm -3
UCLA 1 2 3 8 7 4.2 Arizona 8 pm +3
Six other games cold matter today, as they three conferences that would "steal" a bid with a surprise champion are the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and American Athletic. The nightmare scenario would be Oregon winning the Pac-12, someone besides Nevada winning the MW, someone besides St. Bonaventure or Rhode Island winning the A10, and someone besides Cincinnati, Wichita State or Houston winning the AAC. If all four of those things happened, then only three of the 13 teams above would logically make the tournament.
Need to win Conf Today
Nevada MW SD St 8 pm -4
Rhode Island A10 VCU 11 am -8
St. Bonaventure A10 Rich 5 p.m. -9
Cincinnati AAC SMU 11 am -8
Wichita State AAC Temple 6 pm -9
Houston AAC UCF 8 pm -8
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MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.
My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Via Kerry Miller Twitter
I completely agree with this list with 1 exception. Providence is in. Oklahoma should be in the list of 14 instead.
I am working on my blind resume test. Those are my 14 teams for 7 spots (with trading Providence for Oklahoma). I suppose I could do 15 teams for 8 spots and include PC, but I don't see any way they're left out at this point.
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MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.
My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Via Kerry Miller Twitter
Posted at same time, my Cracked Sidewalks post with link in previous just left Nebraska off your list as out and Providence off the list as in. I also have Oklahoma on the bubble as opposed to in.
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We have to remember why the quad system was put in place to begin with. It is meant to emphasize Road wins and neutral Court wins. If you look at teams around MU..like Baylor, UL etc..MU went 9-8 in road/neutral games..some of these other bubble teams have a horrible Road/neutral record..IF thats a tiebreaker so to speak..MU may just have an advantage.
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MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.
My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Via Kerry Miller Twitter
On that same account he says our LSU, Creighton, and Seton Hall wins don’t look as good as they once did.
He also said Louisville is 0-11 against the RPI Top 50.
It’s really going to come down to what criteria the committee is using as a tie breaker. I hope it’s road/neutral record and SOS. If it’s top wins, we are in trouble.
ETA: guru get out of my head. Totally agree on the road/neutral. It seems like every year the interview with the chair highlights a random tie breaking criteria for bubble teams. Hopefully it’s a metric we look good in.
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We have to remember why the quad system was put in place to begin with. It is meant to emphasize Road wins and neutral Court wins. If you look at teams around MU..like Baylor, UL etc..MU went 9-8 in road/neutral games..some of these other bubble teams have a horrible Road/neutral record..IF thats a tiebreaker so to speak..MU may just have an advantage.
Yes the more i compare the bubble teams the more I like MU
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all three games going our way but only by 4 points each. wait, Auburn up 6 :-)
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Honestly, I find myself agreeing with Palm's view of the cutline more than others. All of the teams he has out should be out, in my opinon
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Bama has the All-American Hair team, that's for sure.
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BLIND RESUME TIME! 16 teams for 9 spots. Please, if you know who the team is….please keep it to yourself until I reveal the names. It just ruins it for everyone else if people start telling everyone what team is what. Just refer to the team #s or the exercise is pointless. If you want teams, PM me.
Team 1
Q1: 2-9
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 46
SOS: low 40s
Team 2
Q1: 6-9
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 20s
Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 10-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid teens
Team 4
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 43
SOS: high 80s
Team 5
Q1: 4-12
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 44
SOS: high teens
Team 6
Q1: 2-1
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 10-2
Q4: 14-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 160s
Team 7
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 1-3
Q3: 10-1
Q4: 10-0
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 90s
Team 8
Q1: 6-7
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 48
SOS: mid single digits
Team 9
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 6-1
Avg Metric: 43
SOS: Lows 50s
Team 10
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid 20s
Team 11
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 2-1
Q3: 4-2
Q4: 11-1
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid 80s
Team 12
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 42
SOS: mid 50s
Team 13
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-6
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: low 70s
Team 14
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 4-2
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: low 20s
Team 15
Q1: 3-11
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 37
SOS: mid teens
Team 16
Q1: 5-12
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 57
SOS: high 40s
REMEMBER....9 TEAM DANCING. 7 GOING TO THE NIT.
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Bama has the All-American Hair team, that's for sure.
Need auburn to win
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Brad Evans from Yahoo was on Sirius XM today. To put it mild, he doesn't hold back. He was ask by Chris Childers who do you think is overrated as bracket guy. Didn't hold back in crushing Palm. Crushed ESPN and the love fest for Notre Dame.
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Brad Evans from Yahoo was on Sirius XM today. To put it mild, he doesn't hold back. He was ask by Chris Childers who do you think is overrated as bracket guy. Didn't hold back in crushing Palm. Crushed ESPN and the love fest for Notre Dame.
LOVE the Big Noise.
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Not that it really matters, only bracket that matters is what we see on Sunday, but Bracket Matrix just updated. 16/80 brackets. 5th team out.
First Four Out:
MTSU (26/80)
Baylor (25)
OK State (19)
Syracuse (19)
Last Four in:
St. Marys (55)
Alabama (69)
Louisville (42)
AZ State (46)
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Not that it really matters, only bracket that matters is what we see on Sunday, but Bracket Matrix just updated. 16/80 brackets. 5th team out.
First Four Out:
MTSU (26/80)
Baylor (25)
OK State (19)
Syracuse (19)
Last Four in:
St. Marys (55)
Alabama (69)
Louisville (42)
AZ State (46)
After seeing Louisville's 0-11 record against top 50, I think it would be a travesty if they got in ahead of us (or serveral other teams). Wouldn't shock me though, huge fan base, darling conference, redemption story line, etc.
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After seeing Louisville's 0-11 record against top 50, I think it would be a travesty if they got in ahead of us (or serveral other teams). Wouldn't shock me though, huge fan base, darling conference, redemption story line, etc.
That's not why they would get in.
Their RPI of 38 would be the reason.
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Brad Evans from Yahoo was on Sirius XM today. To put it mild, he doesn't hold back. He was ask by Chris Childers who do you think is overrated as bracket guy. Didn't hold back in crushing Palm. Crushed ESPN and the love fest for Notre Dame.
Brad Evans is pretty terrible too. Rated worse than Lunardi but better than Palm
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Cinci won, URI is up 5 with just over a minute left. War Eagle up 10 at half. This SEC game is probably the biggest of the day, maybe some Pac12 tonight
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BLIND RESUME TIME! 16 teams for 9 spots. Please, if you know who the team is….please keep it to yourself until I reveal the names. It just ruins it for everyone else if people start telling everyone what team is what. Just refer to the team #s or the exercise is pointless. If you want teams, PM me.
Team 1
Q1: 2-9
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 46
SOS: low 40s
Team 2
Q1: 6-9
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 20s
Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 10-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid teens
Team 4
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 43
SOS: high 80s
Team 5
Q1: 4-12
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 44
SOS: high teens
Team 6
Q1: 2-1
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 10-2
Q4: 14-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 160s
Team 7
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 1-3
Q3: 10-1
Q4: 10-0
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 90s
Team 8
Q1: 6-7
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 48
SOS: mid single digits
Team 9
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 6-1
Avg Metric: 43
SOS: Lows 50s
Team 10
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid 20s
Team 11
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 2-1
Q3: 4-2
Q4: 11-1
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid 80s
Team 12
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 42
SOS: mid 50s
Team 13
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-6
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: low 70s
Team 14
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 4-2
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: low 20s
Team 15
Q1: 3-11
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 37
SOS: mid teens
Team 16
Q1: 5-12
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 57
SOS: high 40s
REMEMBER....9 TEAM DANCING. 7 GOING TO THE NIT.
One thing missing is away and neutral court record. Every year the committee comments on road wins and neutral court wins as factor.
In for me jsut based on what is provided: 2, 8, 10, 16, 3, 9, 12, 13, 15
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Bama on a huge run to take the lead after the half. Although they will probably stop hitting every 3 pointer soon.
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Bama on a huge run to take the lead after the half. Although they will probably stop hitting every 3 pointer soon.
Bama's run is 14-1 to start the second half. Auburn is 20-1 when leading at half. The only loss? Alabama.
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6 minutes into the 2nd half and still no baskets for Auburn
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Yeah. Bama is going to win. More aggressive. Getting better shots. Playing better defense. Dominating in all aspects.
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20-1 in the 2nd half. Bama up 9.
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That might be that for MU's hopes.
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Way awesome of Auburn to take a nap for the second half. Gees.
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Bama punched their ticket
We screwed
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I hesitate to call games over before games are over. But this is over. Alabama is bigger, faster, stronger AND playing better basketball.
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Yes, sitting in Auburn watching them die. they have been a comeback team all year but this is going the other way hard.
(updates new Friday Bracket Matrix into my table on www.crackedsidewalks.com)
- Alabama moved up 4 spots to 5, UCLA up 2 spots to 1, MU drops 2 spots to 12 and MTSU drops 4 spots to 8). On the overall average of these 5, that leaves Marquette within one point of MTSU 6.0, Lville 6.2, Alabama 6.4, MU 6.9 prior to the Auburn game)
up to 7 bids of 13 Palm Lunardi Matrix SOR Dance Ave. Today
Alabama 10 5 5 11 1 6.4 Auburn Noon +6
Arizona State 9 10 7 13 11 9.8 Done
Baylor 12 13 9 4 10 9.4 Done
Louisville 5 7 6 3 9 6.2 Done
Marquette 3 12 12 2 5 6.8 Done
MTSU 8 6 8 6 2 6.0 Done
Notre Dame 11 9 13 10 13 11.2 Done
Oklahoma 4 4 2 1 3 2.6 Done
Oklahoma State 13 8 10 5 12 9.8 Done
Saint Mary's 2 3 4 7 8 5 Done
Syracuse 7 11 11 9 4 8.6 Done
USC 6 1 3 12 6 5.4 Oregon 10:30 pm -3
UCLA 1 2 1 8 7 3.8 Arizona 8 pm +3
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Will St.Marys and MTSU get in with there dog crap schedules?Just looked both of them up.Awful.If it comes down to Louisville and another team and they pick the cheaters I have no respect for the NCAA.That program should be given the death penalty.
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Auburn sucks.
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Auburn sucks.
Pearl screaming at his players. Guys are not responding. Guess it's just not Wojo.
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SEC is way overrated.
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Already hate Bama football...guess I'll add bball to the list now... >:(
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Auburn is a disaster. About to drop to 2-4 since the injury to Anfernee McLemore.
Turning my attention to possible spoilers, I guess I see up to 5 conferences that theoretically could have one - so will root against these teams, though some still need to play each other.
Conf Possible Spoiler
A10 Davidson
A10 George Mason
A10 Richmond
A10 Saint Joseph's
A10 Saint Louis
Amer Memphis
Amer Temple
Amer Tulsa
Amer UCF
MWC New Mexico
MWC San Diego St.
MWC Utah St.
P12 Oregon
SEC Georgia
SEC Mississippi St.
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Will St.Marys and MTSU get in with there dog crap schedules?
I believe MTSU non conference schedule rates pretty strong. Looking at it, you can tell they tried.
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I believe MTSU non conference schedule rates pretty strong. Looking at it, you can tell they tried.
They beat 0 at large teams.
That’s bad
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Already hate Bama football...guess I'll add bball to the list now... >:(
It's like your in my mind. Or is that all the Roll Tide's, I will hear on the Finebaum Show.
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Think Bama was in after their win yesterday..don't think this affects MU. Still don't think they are getting in regardless, but IF they do..felt all along it would be at the expense of someone most thought were in awhile ago..but aren't..like Saint Mary's, like Louisville, like NC State..every year there is a school or 2 that doesn't get in that everyone assumes would..and a school or 2 that get in that most weren't giving much thought to..like MU this year.
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I believe MTSU non conference schedule rates pretty strong. Looking at it, you can tell they tried.
Nah. The best team they scheduled was Vanderbilt. Also played USC, Miami and Auburn in events but lost all 3.
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Think Bama was in after their win yesterday..don't think this affects MU. Still don't think they are getting in regardless, but IF they do..felt all along it would be at the expense of someone most thought were in awhile ago..but aren't..like Saint Mary's, like Louisville, like NC State..every year there is a school or 2 that doesn't get in that everyone assumes would..and a school or 2 that get in that most weren't giving much thought to..like MU this year.
Bracket matrix is usually a pretty good guide. About half the time, they are spot on - like last year.
The other half they chose a team seemingly out of it prior to the selection. For instance in 2016, Vandy and Tulsa got into the tournament. Tulsa jumped over 10 schools in BM's final poll and Vandy jumped 5.
The bad news is that if it has truly come to that, Marquette will be lucky to get into the play-in game.
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Nah. The best team they scheduled was Vanderbilt. Also played USC, Miami and Auburn in events but lost all 3.
@Murray State, Belmont and home and home in the same season vs FGCU.
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Bracket matrix is usually a pretty good guide. About half the time, they are spot on - like last year.
The other half they chose a team seemingly out of it prior to the selection. For instance in 2016, Vandy and Tulsa got into the tournament. Tulsa jumped over 10 schools in BM's final poll and Vandy jumped 5.
The bad news is that if it has truly come to that, Marquette will be lucky to get into the play-in game.
I'm honestly okay with a #1 seed in the NIT ONLY because it means home games(which I can attend) and most importantly..theoretically it means the season won't end as soon..I'm ok with that.
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@Murray State, Belmont and home and home in the same season vs FGCU.
They scheduled some good low majors. That counts for a little bit. Shouldn't count for enough, in my opinion. They had 3 cracks at tournament teams. They failed each time and racked up some bad losses too.
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Bracket matrix is usually a pretty good guide. About half the time, they are spot on - like last year.
The other half they chose a team seemingly out of it prior to the selection. For instance in 2016, Vandy and Tulsa got into the tournament. Tulsa jumped over 10 schools in BM's final poll and Vandy jumped 5.
The bad news is that if it has truly come to that, Marquette will be lucky to get into the play-in game.
Then again..for all we know, MU could have already been voted into the field...or..conversely it could turn out they weren't even as close as some thought..we just don't know what the committee thinks.
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They scheduled some good low majors. That counts for a little bit. Shouldn't count for enough, in my opinion. They had 3 cracks at tournament teams. They failed each time and racked up some bad losses too.
I think you arguing something I'm not saying.
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It's like your in my mind. Or is that all the Roll Tide's, I will hear on the Finebaum Show.
In my high school football days our mascot was the Patriots and we always would psych ourselves up by yelling "ROLL TIDE!" over and over again. Looking back, it made no sense at all!
Also now that I realize we represented the two most HATED football organizations AT THE SAME TIME in an act of utter ignorance, I have never felt more ashamed of anything in my life... :'(
250th post - "LOOK at me!...I am the Captain now..."
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FWIW Dance Card had us with a 4 team buffer this morning and Alabama was already ahead of us.
Does this mean anything? Not really but it keeps me hopeful.
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I think you arguing something I'm not saying.
Think you're correct after re-reading what you said.
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FWIW Dance Card had us with a 4 team buffer this morning and Alabama was already ahead of us.
Does this mean anything? Not really but it keeps me hopeful.
It's no less accurate than other bracketologists. So it means as much as anything else we're discussing!
There are definitely projections that have us in. So there will be a chance for sure.
ESPN's Strength of Resume, which claims to be the most accurate predictor, has us safely in as a 10 seed.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2
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They scheduled some good low majors. That counts for a little bit. Shouldn't count for enough, in my opinion. They had 3 cracks at tournament teams. They failed each time and racked up some bad losses too.
So we played more #1 seeds than they played tourney teams, 5 v 3, maybe 6 with Purdue
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This is interesting... he took the RPI and Quadrant system and turned it into a ranking tool-
http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/
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This is interesting... he took the RPI and Quadrant system and turned it into a ranking tool-
http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/
Very interesting. Especially when you read the narrative at the top. Sounds like this guy's formula usually nails the teams that are seen as outliers. He currently has us 8 teams from the cutline.
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It's no less accurate than other bracketologists. So it means as much as anything else we're discussing!
There are definitely projections that have us in. So there will be a chance for sure.
ESPN's Strength of Resume, which claims to be the most accurate predictor, has us safely in as a 10 seed.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2
Yes, the piece from last year on Nate Silver's blog made that case.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/
That post had us 41st in SOR - one spot worse than we are this year - and of course we did get a 10-seed. Last year it gave us an 88.6 percent chance of making the tournament - though that was based to a lesser degree on other ratings such as KenPom that is not supposed to be a factor.
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This is interesting... he took the RPI and Quadrant system and turned it into a ranking tool-
http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/
This is awesome thank you. I love the internet. Biggest wild card indeed is how the new quadrants will factor in.
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Yes, the piece from last year on Nate Silver's blog made that case.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/
That post had us 41st in SOR - one spot worse than we are this year - and of course we did get a 10-seed. Last year it gave us an 88.6 percent chance of making the tournament - though that was based to a lesser degree on other ratings such as KenPom that is not supposed to be a factor.
This is it, thanks. So Strength of Record this year has us safely in. We'll see.
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USA today has us playing St. Mary's in Dayton.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/02/08/march-madness-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/318678002/
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A little off topic but if we get a Dayton draw does anyone know when we will know what day/time we would play?
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A little off topic but if we get a Dayton draw does anyone know when we will know what day/time we would play?
Tuesday/Wednesday at night. Doubleheaders.
Edit: misread lol
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Do we think St. Bonaventure could get left out with a loss? They don't really have great wins at all.
Wondering if I should cheer for Richmond and put all my eggs in the URI basket or go ahead and cheer for St Bonaventure.
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ABD?
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Comments from Chairman Bruce Rasmussen on CBS sports right now...
32 teams currently in the field...20 more under consideration
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Comments from Chairman Bruce Rasmussen on CBS sports right now...
32 teams currently in the field...20 more under consideration
Won't matter eh. If they are Dayton t doesn't count anyways right? :o
But seriously, we are definitely in that 20 under consideration. The bubble bursts at 48 this year it looks like so 16 of those 20 are likely getting in.
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Exciting PC and Xavier game.
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Temple is making this a much closer game than I expected against Wichita State right now. Not ideal
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PC and Xavier going into overtime...
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Won't matter eh. If they are Dayton t doesn't count anyways right? :o
But seriously, we are definitely in that 20 under consideration. The bubble bursts at 48 this year it looks like so 16 of those 20 are likely getting in.
I don't think this is accurate but may be doing my math wrong
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Providence looks tough tonight. They fought back from a huge deficit, 16 or 17, I think.
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PC and Xavier going into overtime...
Anything sweeter than mancura rejected at end of regulation!!!!
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Anything sweeter than mancura rejected at end of regulation!!!!
Macura committing a charge with 8 seconds to go, down 1, in OT!
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X should be embarrassed
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Macura committing a charge with 8 seconds to go, down 1, in OT!
Macura was in the air before Cartwright had his feet set. Sorry, but that’s a blocking foul.
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Sew, X played demselves wright outta a 1 seed, hey?
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Cooley is a pretty dang good coach. In year 4 he wins BET and then is heading back to the BET final this year. Crazy.
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I can't stand Providence...never have liked them. They just always seem to suck/luck out games they have no business winning.
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Xavier and macura and blueitt had a horrendous second half, yet still had shots to win. Macura missed several Strus open 3 point shots. Providence was very resilient. This could be a very good NCAAT for the Big East.
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I can't stand Providence...never have liked them. They just always seem to suck/luck out games they have no business winning.
Cooley is a great coach who the kids will walk through a wall for.
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But, but, but they lost to DePaul...at home!
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Macura was in the air before Cartwright had his feet set. Sorry, but that’s a blocking foul.
That's what I was screaming. Poor call.
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I can't stand Providence...never have liked them. They just always seem to suck/luck out games they have no business winning.
Bite your tongue Guru! Do you not remember that it was Friar who got us a great Youtube stream to watch a few Warrior games??
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Miss state and Georgia now out. Worst case now from the www.crackedsidewalks.com list at the end is four spoilers - and that would include Oregon winning the pac-12, which would require them beating USC tonight.
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I still contend MU’s home loss to Providence is the biggest thorn in our side.
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nevada likes making things tough down 14 already.
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Lunardi has us in Next 4 out right now. Weren't we in his last 4 in recently?
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Taught dat wuz Rosie Palm, hey?
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Well Nevada is likely done. That's another spot gone.
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Damn, Nevada down 23...and it's not halftime yet.
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Was is Nevada in??
If you can’t beat the San Francisco Dons you shouldn’t get an at large.
Their best player wasn’t good enough to stick with a bottom tier ACC team
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Damn, Nevada down 23...and it's not halftime yet.
Butler was down 20 before they ever even scored!
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Nevada gonna possibly be down 40 at half.
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First bid stealer in the mountain west. Thats a shame.
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Do MTSU, St Mary's and Nevada all get in? I think 1 of the 3 will
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Do MTSU, St Mary's and Nevada all get in? I think 1 of the 3 will
Nevada will. St Mary's may. MTSU sure as hell shouldn't.
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Do MTSU, St Mary's and Nevada all get in? I think 1 of the 3 will
They all suck
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Was is Nevada in??
If you can’t beat the San Francisco Dons you shouldn’t get an at large.
Their best player wasn’t good enough to stick with a bottom tier ACC team
Honestly their resume isn't impressive but they'll make it
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Honestly their resume isn't impressive but they'll make it
Rhode island the only tournament team they’ve beaten and some bad losses sprinkled in there. 7 losses. seems they should at least be on the bubble.
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Nevada has an RPI of 11 and SOS of 63. They will make it in with room to spare.
Not so sure on St. Mary's and MTSU. I would leave both out personally.
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I don't know if this has been said yet, but MU played 13 out of 20 conference games against tournament teams, and 1 out of every 4 games was against a top 5 team. Finishing 10-10 in that kind of gauntlet seems like a team that deserves a bid. It seems like our lack of a "signature" win (with numerous opportunities, I know...) is our only resume hole, but doesn't everyone else have even bigger holes? On paper, I just don't see how we aren't in.
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Nevada has an RPI of 11 and SOS of 63. They will make it in with room to spare.
Not so sure on St. Mary's and MTSU. I would leave both out personally.
Idc what RPI says
They have beaten 1 tourney team. And it’s another mid major
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Idc what RPI says
They have beaten 1 tourney team. And it’s another mid major
I agree with you, unfortunately I don't think the comitee will.
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with a mid major like Nevada the RPI can fool you
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Idc what RPI says
They have beaten 1 tourney team. And it’s another mid major
They're a perfect storm for the flaws of the quadrant system. All but 1 of their Q2 games are outside the top 75 in RPI, but they were on the road. And somehow their non-con SOS is a top 20 too. Not sure how that happened. They're a lock, but they're not impressive on paper.
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I agree with you, unfortunately I don't think the comitee will.
Yeah I know.
But that’s why it’s dumb.
This could be a wide open tourney with so few dominate teams.
But instead we are gonna let in untested teams who lose to teams that gave me a call to check on my eligibility.
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Usually I like to see the mid major teams like Nevada, MTSU, St Mary's, etc. get in over the major conference teams that go .500 or worse in their conference.
Now that MU is one of those teams on the bubble I think it's ridiculous that a mid major who plays no one can get in!
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Idc what RPI says
They have beaten 1 tourney team. And it’s another mid major
So don’t let any mid majors in? Let all the teams that finish in the bottom 30-40% of their major conference in? Come on. They have an SOS in 60s with an RPI of 11. I’m sorry, if you can’t finish in the top half of your conference then you can’t complain about missing the tourney.
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Usually I like to see the mid major teams like Nevada, MTSU, St Mary's, etc. get in over the major conference teams that go .500 or worse in their conference.
Now that MU is one of those teams on the bubble I think it's ridiculous that a mid major who plays no one can get in!
Ha! Same. I’d rather see a mid major over a team that’s proven they aren’t capable of a final 4 run.
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So don’t let any mid majors in? Let all the teams that finish in the bottom 30-40% of their major conference in? Come on. They have an SOS in 60s with an RPI of 11. I’m sorry, if you can’t finish in the top half of your conference then you can’t complain about missing the tourney.
No, I’m saying don’t let bad teams in.
It’s a simple concept. Beat someone worth noting.
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Ha! Same. I’d rather see a mid major over a team that’s proven they aren’t capable of a final 4 run.
And what has any of St Mary’s, Nevada, Middle Tennessee done to prove they are capable of a final 4 run?
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And what has any of St Mary’s, Nevada, Middle Tennessee done to prove they are capable of a final 4 run?
Some of these teams have 40% - 50% more wins than us. That's a hard thing to do, even if your SOS is 80 or 100. If you can win 8 or 10 straight, I think you're capable of making a run. Winning in your conference is tough, even if it's the MAC or the Mountain West. It's harder in the Big East and the ACC for sure, but Nevada's KenPom rating of 20 is no accident. That's why there are always upsets in March. Smaller schools with so-so schedules that find a way to win a ton of games are probably better than a lot of people think they are.
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Georgia fell back to 76 in RPI. Quad 3....for now. Could possible shift back up.
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Some of these teams have 40% - 50% more wins than us. That's a hard thing to do, even if your SOS is 80 or 100. If you can win 8 or 10 straight, I think you're capable of making a run. Winning in your conference is tough, even if it's the MAC or the Mountain West. It's harder in the Big East and the ACC for sure, but Nevada's KenPom rating of 20 is no accident. That's why there are always upsets in March. Smaller schools with so-so schedules that find a way to win a ton of games are probably better than a lot of people think they are.
Or you can let a team like Cuse in when everyone says they lost too much
And they make the final 4.
I want battle tested teams getting at larges.
Love mid majors who earn their bids
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And what has any of St Mary’s, Nevada, Middle Tennessee done to prove they are capable of a final 4 run?
About the same as Marquette has. If you take MU completely out of the equation I would rather see St Marys, Nevada, MTSU, etc. make it over Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisville, Syracuse, etc. or any major conference team that has MU's resume that is not MU.
I just like to see some of those teams get a shot. Their conferences may suck but that's not really their fault and no major conference team has the balls to travel to their place during the non con, so I like to see them get a chance over major conference teams that can't even break .500 in their league.
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So are we in??
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Or you can let a team like Cuse in when everyone says they lost too much
And they make the final 4.
I want battle tested teams getting at larges.
Love mid majors who earn their bids
But a mid-major who won 27 games with a top 20 non-con SOS hasn't earned their bid? A team with a top 20 RPI and KenPom? It's a tough line to draw between high majors who played and lost tough games versus mid-majors who won 12-14 conference games, but at the end of the day, the numbers shake out the way they do for a reason.
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Nevada has an RPI of 11 and SOS of 63. They will make it in with room to spare.
Not so sure on St. Mary's and MTSU. I would leave both out personally.
I've been hoping to see Nevada opposite us on a 6/7 line. No way they get left out with that RPI.
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But a mid-major who won 27 games with a top 20 non-con SOS hasn't earned their bid? A team with a top 20 RPI and KenPom? It's a tough line to draw between high majors who played and lost tough games versus mid-majors who won 12-14 conference games, but at the end of the day, the numbers shake out the way they do for a reason.
No they didn’t earn their bid.
They haven’t beaten anyone outside Rhode Island that’s worth even mentioning.
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About the same as Marquette has. If you take MU completely out of the equation I would rather see St Marys, Nevada, MTSU, etc. make it over Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisville, Syracuse, etc. or any major conference team that has MU's resume that is not MU.
I just like to see some of those teams get a shot. Their conferences may suck but that's not really their fault and no major conference team has the balls to travel to their place during the non con, so I like to see them get a chance over major conference teams that can't even break .500 in their league.
Alabama? Much more capable of a run
They also beat the same team that qualifies as Nevadas lone good win.
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So are we in??
#donedeal
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#donedeal
Bottom line is the humans do not have us in and the computers do have us in.
Analytic models built to predict the committee selections (SOR, Dance Card) have Marquette easily in.
However, the humans (with a few exceptions like Palm and 19 of 106 brackets in the matrix) have us out and in the case of many like Lunardi and Fox Sports Howard Schwab don't even have us in the next four out.
I'm rooting for Palm and the computers!
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http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html
With USC blowing Oregon out, Alabama winning big today and Nevada losing to let a bid be stolen, I’d update my cracked sidewalks table to say we are now one of 11 teams vying for four spots. Getting pretty tight.
That would mean with no other spoilers, we’d need the committee to pick us over 7 of these teams:
Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville, MTSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Syracuse and UCLA.
Hope Strength of Record and Dance Card, and Jerry Palm are right and – like last year – we are actually ahead of where most predictors believe we are.
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Wearing my blue and gold goggles....we are still the last team in behind Louisville, Oklahoma and UCLA
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Bottom line is the humans do not have us in and the computers do have us in.
Analytic models built to predict the committee selections (SOR, Dance Card) have Marquette easily in.
However, the humans (with a few exceptions like Palm and 19 of 106 brackets in the matrix) have us out and in the case of many like Lunardi and Fox Sports Howard Schwab don't even have us in the next four out.
I'm rooting for Palm and the computers!
I, for one, welcome our machine overlords.
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Wearing my blue and gold goggles....we are still the last team in behind Louisville, Oklahoma and UCLA
Still not sure what Louisville has done to deserve a bid. Their road record is putrid, and they have beaten exactly...No one. I'm telling you, there are always a team or two that get left out that the bracketologists and general public assumed were in, and a team or two that the same group thought were out that get in. But...MU did lose a Q1 win with Creighton's RPI drop, so that hurts.
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Still not sure what Louisville has done to deserve a bid. Their road record is putrid, and they have beaten exactly...No one. I'm telling you, there are always a team or two that get left out that the bracketologists and general public assumed were in, and a team or two that the same group thought were out that get in. But...MU did lose a Q1 win with Creighton's RPI drop, so that hurts.
It was Halls drop. I’ve said it before...I don’t think the quadrants are that concrete. I hope committee is intelligent enough to evaluate wins separately and not vastly change their analysis based on 5-10 point swings in RPI. Per the committee chair, the quadrants were just released to provide more clarity to the general public as to what the committee values. No actual criteria has changed.
That said, I am not feeling great. I think there is a chance that we are one of the surprise teams they include, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think this team deserves one of the last few bids, but this season, there are going to be 5-7 worthy teams playing in the NIT. That usually isn’t the case.
We will know in 36 hours.
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So are we in??
Gotta weight 5 years ta no, hey?
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Still not sure what Louisville has done to deserve a bid. Their road record is putrid, and they have beaten exactly...No one. I'm telling you, there are always a team or two that get left out that the bracketologists and general public assumed were in, and a team or two that the same group thought were out that get in. But...MU did lose a Q1 win with Creighton's RPI drop, so that hurts.
Louisville’s signature wins are at #56 Florida St and neutral site vs. #56 Florida St.
6-8 road/neutral record.
5-13 Q1/2 record.
39 RPI helps them.
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http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html
With USC blowing Oregon out, Alabama winning big today and Nevada losing to let a bid be stolen, I’d update my cracked sidewalks table to say we are now one of 11 teams vying for four spots. Getting pretty tight.
That would mean with no other spoilers, we’d need the committee to pick us over 7 of these teams:
Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville, MTSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Syracuse and UCLA.
Hope Strength of Record and Dance Card, and Jerry Palm are right and – like last year – we are actually ahead of where most predictors believe we are.
Thanks. Was looking for a post that narrowed down the field to a concise set. My head was spinning.
Also, so Nevada is in or no? Not in the list. Is it assumed it gets an at-large.
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Nevada is a stone cold lock
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Not losing hope:
As of this morning Espn resume has us as an 11 seed:👍🏼
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2
This algorithm which has been very correct in the past has us as the last team in:😳😕🤞🏼
http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/
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Nevada is a stone cold lock
Has a Power 6 conference ever had a team seeded 12 or lower (ie 12-16)? I ask since you are our basketball sage.
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Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.
I wish I would have been wrong about SDSU.
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Not losing hope:
As of this morning Espn resume has us as an 11 seed:👍🏼
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2
This algorithm which has been very correct in the past has us as the last team in:😳😕🤞🏼
http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/
Regarding the last link - not sure what about Louisville and Baylor’s resume puts them ahead of MU. Louisville has a shiny RPI but they haven’t beaten anybody. USC resume isn’t impressive either. Only top 50 wins are nuetral court against New Mexico State and Middle Tenn.
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Regarding the last link - not sure what about Louisville and Baylor’s resume puts them ahead of MU. Louisville has a shiny RPI but they haven’t beaten anybody. USC resume isn’t impressive either. Only top 50 wins are nuetral court against New Mexico State and Middle Tenn.
The first link on espn... it's amazing how far ahead we should be of some of the teams that pundits have in front of us. SOS:12, RPI 50's, NONCON SOS:31
There are teams with numbers in the 200's with fewer Q1-2 wins ahead of us getting in. It's nauseating.
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So if we don't see Arizona State and Baylor' s name early in the broadcast, we have a pretty good chance?
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Has a Power 6 conference ever had a team seeded 12 or lower (ie 12-16)? I ask since you are our basketball sage.
TAMU got a 12 seed and beat Gerry McNamara lead Syracuse.
Georgia got a 14 seed when they got an auto bid in the crazy tornado year.
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https://twitter.com/TheAndyKatz/status/972504244996755458?s=20
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RPI is flawed in that it really helps the mid major look a lot better than they are.
OK St has bad numbers but they are a team that looks like a tournament team
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So if we don't see Arizona State and Baylor' s name early in the broadcast, we have a pretty good chance?
Great point! What are the teams we need to get bypassed for us to be getting more excited towards the “M” section....alphabeticaly please :)
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It was Halls drop. I’ve said it before...I don’t think the quadrants are that concrete. I hope committee is intelligent enough to evaluate wins separately and not vastly change their analysis based on 5-10 point swings in RPI. Per the committee chair, the quadrants were just released to provide more clarity to the general public as to what the committee values. No actual criteria has changed.
That said, I am not feeling great. I think there is a chance that we are one of the surprise teams they include, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think this team deserves one of the last few bids, but this season, there are going to be 5-7 worthy teams playing in the NIT. That usually isn’t the case.
We will know in 36 hours.
Agree with you and selection chair (from Creighton) said as much - these are categories to start the conversation.
So the Creighton wins will be viewed as almost quad 1. The problem is the flip side - the quad 1 wins we have are not going to be as strong as some other teams quad 1 wins because we didn't beat any high quad 1 teams. That's where last year's team had an edge - they beat Nova. We showed we could beat teams in the high quad 2 to low quad 1. Does that hold up against a team with less quad 1 wins but a top 10 victory?
I believe our away from home record is the biggest trump card - but 4 quad 1 wins and maybe a road win over big east tournament champ if Nova cools off tonight would be nice.
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So if we don't see Arizona State and Baylor' s name early in the broadcast, we have a pretty good chance?
Speaking of the broadcast, does anyone know the nitty gritty mechanics of it? I know they will announce the 68 teams first but will they be alphabetical...or by seed...will they announce the first 20 and go to commercial? Etc... I know the matchups come last..,but curious how we will be fed the info.
Also if it’s by seed do you think they save the Dayton teams for the end of the first set? I wonder if they get to the 13s without MU weather I should feel dread.
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Speaking of the broadcast, does anyone know the nitty gritty mechanics of it? I know they will announce the 68 teams first but will they be alphabetical...or by seed...will they announce the first 20 and go to commercial? Etc... I know the matchups come last..,but curious how we will be fed the info.
Also if it’s by seed do you think they save the Dayton teams for the end of the first set? I wonder if they get to the 13s without MU weather I should feel dread.
Alphabetical is what I read.
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Great point! What are the teams we need to get bypassed for us to be getting more excited towards the “M” section....alphabeticaly please :)
Louisville. I think they will do automatic and then at large. Each alphabetically.
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Kansas St
Kentucky (unless they win SEC)
Louisville (bubble)
Marquette (bubble)
Miami
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Kansas St
Kentucky (unless they win SEC)
Louisville (bubble)
Marquette (bubble)
Miami
I'm assuming you're listing this as how it would come up during the announcement tomorrow correct?
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I'm assuming you're listing this as how it would come up during the announcement tomorrow correct?
Yes, but if they skip Louisville and go straight to Marquette I'd be thrilled :-)
With Alabama moving ahead of us, Palm has us playing St. Mary's in Dayton.
If that happened it would make the second straight year Marquette faced the top www.valueaddbasketball.com player in their first game (I had Thornwell from South Carolina first last year), though I believe no. 2 ayton of Arizona likely passed landale after the double and triple teams shut landale down in St Mary's tournament.
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It sucks that they are doing it alphabetically because there aren't many bubble teams that are alphabetically before MU..Baylor and Louisville I guess which wont really tell us anything..I'm more interested in teams like St Marys, Oklahoma, and Middle Tenn St. Now that would tell us something..but of course they are all alphabetically after MU.
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Not sure if it really helps, but if Vermont pulls off this win they’re in the tourney and that gives us another win over a tournament team. Not sure how important number of wins over tournament teams is.
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Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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So assuming Alabama is a lock and there are no more bid thieves, we're competing with Baylor, Louisville, Syracuse, St Marys, Oklahoma, and Middle Tenn St.? And for how many spots?
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Vermont blows
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That Vermont lose hurts right?
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Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I like it, but Syracuse & Louisville are also at 99%+, so at least a couple teams with historically good resumes will be left out. Also, not sure how much this caveat/disclaimer matters:
"The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years."
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Hurts our RPI a bit but they are still safely inside q2 range
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That Vermont lose hurts right?
Not really
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Not really
Widely accepted they’re not being considered for an at-large I believe
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Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Can't recall anyone else thinking we have a (slightly) better shot than Creighton. Most seem to list CU as an 8 or 9, and MU right on the edge.
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Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
They've only had like 9 incorrect picks in the last 6 years. Looks good for mu.
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Gotta weight 5 years ta no, hey?
Tony Bennett at Virginia
Year 1 No NCAA
Year 2 No NAA
Year 3 NCAA, first round loss
Year 4 NIT
Conversely, Kevin Ollie
Year one Post Season Inelibile
Year two NCAA champions
Year three NIT
Year four NCAA
Year five No NCAA
Year six No NCAA fired
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two bid stealers playing today in the A10. URI and St. Bonaventure are locks.
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two bid stealers playing today in the A10. URI and St. Bonaventure are locks.
And Memphis in the AAC. I think that's it for potential bid stealers. I suppose you could say USC in the Pac 12 but I'd imagine they are in regardless now
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Speaking of the broadcast, does anyone know the nitty gritty mechanics of it? I know they will announce the 68 teams first but will they be alphabetical...or by seed...will they announce the first 20 and go to commercial? Etc... I know the matchups come last..,but curious how we will be fed the info.
Also if it’s by seed do you think they save the Dayton teams for the end of the first set? I wonder if they get to the 13s without MU weather I should feel dread.
What I saw is that they will first list the 32 automatic bids, alphabetically by conference. Obviously no surprises there for people who have been paying attention. Then they will announce the 36 at large teams alphabetically. They said the 68 teams would be revealed in the first 10 minutes, so they shouldn't have too many breaks before that.
My personal bubble list has 9 teams playing for 2 spots. Those 2 spots could disappear if there are bid thieves in the A10 and AAC. So, I'm rooting for Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, and Cincinnati today.
My 9 bubble teams listed alphabetically are Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, and Syracuse.
So hearing either Arizona State or Baylor would be bad, and hearing both might be fatal. If Kentucky doesn't win the SEC I think that might be the last team before Louisville (which I don't want to hear. If you hear Miami and not Marquette it's time to wait for the NIT pairings.
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They've only had like 9 incorrect picks in the last 6 years. Looks good for mu.
They also use the old RPI, and don't account for the quadrants. Not sure how accurate it'll be this year.
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Upon looking at USC's resume, I'd add them to that list and make it 10 teams for 3 spots. USC's best win is MTSU. Legitimately no good wins other than that. They did not beat Arizona, UCLA, or Arizona State, or Washington in Pac 12 play. All 12 of their conference wins came over Utah, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Washington State, Colorado and Stanford
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Alphabetically sounds so dumb to me.
Announcing the 32 auto bids first and then announcing the teams in order of rank from 1-36 sounds much more exciting and suspenseful.
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And Memphis in the AAC. I think that's it for potential bid stealers. I suppose you could say USC in the Pac 12 but I'd imagine they are in regardless now
You think Memphis needs to win AAC tourney it just beat UC?
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Rhode Island and St Bonnie’s gonna pop more bubbles
Like I said these mid major teams ain’t any good
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You think Memphis needs to win AAC tourney it just beat UC?
They need to win the tournament.
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They need to win the tournament.
Good to know. They’re playing well right now but hard to believe they’ll get past UC and Wich St/Houston
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Good to know. They’re playing well right now but hard to believe they’ll get past UC and Wich St/Houston
Yeah. I'm more worried about the A10. URI down at half and if they can't come back and if St Bonaventure loses it's a guaranteed bid stealer.
Bonnies have been playing very well lately tho.
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Atlantic 10 semi's on CBSSN.
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Yeah. I'm more worried about the A10. URI down at half and if they can't come back and if St Bonaventure loses it's a guaranteed bid stealer.
Bonnies have been playing very well lately tho.
Except yesterday and the game before that took 3 OTs lol
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Cincy starts the half on a huge run to take the lead, and maybe something finally is going our way.
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Alphabetically sounds so dumb to me.
Announcing the 32 auto bids first and then announcing the teams in order of rank from 1-36 sounds much more exciting and suspenseful.
Except that announcing them in seed list order provides some clues about seeding. They want to save that for later.
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Link anywhere to the URI game?? I can never find one for CBS sports
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Link anywhere to the URI game?? I can never find one for CBS sports
Depending on your pay service, you can see it on the CBS Sports App.
Next year, get the channel. Just downgrade your service in April.
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Upon looking at USC's resume, I'd add them to that list and make it 10 teams for 3 spots. USC's best win is MTSU. Legitimately no good wins other than that. They did not beat Arizona, UCLA, or Arizona State, or Washington in Pac 12 play. All 12 of their conference wins came over Utah, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Washington State, Colorado and Stanford
I might add them back in if they lose tonight. All of the teams on my list are done playing so I’m focusing on them instead of a moving target. Plus, the consensus seems to be that USC is pretty safely in. I think it would be hard for MU to pass them.
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I might add them back in if they lose tonight. All of the teams on my list are done playing so I’m focusing on them instead of a moving target. Plus, the consensus seems to be that USC is pretty safely in. I think it would be hard for MU to pass them.
Generally I'd agree. But dance card has them even with Marquette and Palm does have them out.
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Keep it goin URI!
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ST Joes with a 49% and 59% free throw shooter draining all of their attempts
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Huge 3 by URI to go up 6 with 20 seconds left.
Then St Joes answers with a 3 right back. URI up 3 with 10 seconds left.
Cincy up 9 under 2 minutes
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Cindy going to win
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Cincinnati too lol
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RI survival
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URI wins too
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Both games fall the way we needed them to. Let’s go U of A
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Both games fall the way we needed them to. Let’s go U of A
And St Bonaventure.
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http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html
updated Saturday after the relief over Rhode Island and Cincy rallying to stop spoilers - only one spoiler (New Mexico or San Diego State with Nevada out) and only one possible additional - Davidson if they beat both St. B's and Rhode Island.
Conf Possible Spoiler
A10 Davidson - sat vs. St. B's 2:30 p.m Sat
A10 George Mason - gone
A10 Richmond - gone
A10 Saint Joseph's - eliminated semis by RI
A10 Saint Louis - gone
Amer Memphis - eliminated semis by Cincy
Amer Temple - gone
Amer Tulsa - gone
Amer UCF - gone
MWC New Mexico or San Diego state WILL steal bid
MWC San Diego St. - see above
MWC Utah St. - gone
P12 Oregon - gone
SEC Georgia - gone
SEC Mississippi St. - gone
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Crazy Davidson is 3 point favorite over St Bonnie.
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One of St Bonaventure's top 3 players is out with injury.
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Gavitt just said 35 at large schools settled already. ND may be one of the schools considered a "special case" when asked specifically.
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Gavitt just said 35 at large schools settled already. ND may be one of the schools considered a "special case" when asked specifically.
Maybe they are actually considering ND, but they also can't just say "Nah. ND is out".
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Maybe they are actually considering ND, but they also can't just say "Nah. ND is out".
Clark should have followed up and asked if Louisville and USC are "special cases" too due to the FBI taint? Why reward them when they will have to vacate again, aina?
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Yeah Clark set him up. He made it
Sound like ND is in. If so, they should consider MU as a special case because we could also burn Joey Hauser's redshirt.
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First of course, GO St. B's - beat Davidson.
Agree on the interview - though it could be that is why Notre Dame is in the teams being considered (still bad) rather than that they are in.
Agree on USC, and glad Palm still has them as last four out, so will hope Arizona kills them tonight - but USC looked awfully tough last night.
If they are considering special cases, Alabama looked great the last two games against two injured teams that have not been good since losing players (Texas A&M). They then lose by Kentucky today, by basically the same margin we lost to Nova by, so if that is their closing argument I think you also need to look at their 6-11 record away from Alabama.
I guess the early names to listen for are Alabama, Arizona State, and Baylor. If we hear all three then we probably need to start planning to be in Milwaukee for an NIT game, but if one is left off we have a chance, and if two of the three are left off then I believe we will be called after Louisville or one of the Kansas schools.
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Wichita has been massively disappointing this year.
Look really poor most games I watch.
A lot of talent to make noise tho
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Yeah, Wichita has looked like their coasting whenever I watch them. Not playing with the burning intensity that I usually see from Marshall's teams.
St. Bonaventure down midway through the 2nd half. May need URI to save the day tomorrow.
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Yeah, Wichita has looked like their coasting whenever I watch them. Not playing with the burning intensity that I usually see from Marshall's teams.
St. Bonaventure down midway through the 2nd half. May need URI to save the day tomorrow.
Bonnies are missing 2 of their top 3 players due to injury.
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St Bonnie’s blows
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St Bonnie’s blows
Really wish we’d make it and get matched up against a team like Nevada, Rhode Island, or any of the other over rated mid majors. Think our guys would roll em.
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As it was stated earlier, St Bonaventure is missing 2 of their top 3 players.
Need Rhode Island badly tomorrow. That game could determine our fate
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Davidson will have a chance to steal a bid tomorrow. I wonder where St Bonaventure will be on the S-Curve. Have to think they're in, especially if they are valuing wins (9 Q1/2) than losses (3 Q3/4).
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I don’t think this St Bonnie game hurts much assuming URI takes care of biz tomorrow.
St Bonnie should be in, but I would be nervous if I were them.
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As it was stated earlier, St Bonaventure is missing 2 of their top 3 players.
Need Rhode Island badly tomorrow. That game could determine our fate
And as I stated, St Bonnie’s blows
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And as I stated, St Bonnie’s blows
Lol. I haven't watched them but I'll take your word for it.
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Gavitt just said 35 at large schools settled already. ND may be one of the schools considered a "special case" when asked specifically.
I assume that 35 includes several teams that will be winning auto bids today and tomorrow (Big East, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Pac 12, AAC, maybe A10).
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Lol. I haven't watched them but I'll take your word for it.
The A10 is horrendous this year.
Like big10 type of down year
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Yeah, Wichita has looked like their coasting whenever I watch them.
They’re
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I don't think I realized how weak USC's resume is until now. On paper they have 4 Q1 wins, which is decent for a bubble team. But then I looked at those 4 Q1 wins:
34 Middle Tennessee State (on neutral court)
42 New Mexico State (on neutral court)
@57 Utah
@72 Oregon
If the committee is truly about who you beat then USC might need to beat Zona tonight to earn their bid. I would argue that our 4th best win (Hall at home) is better than their best win. Throw in a sub 200 loss to Princeton at home and I don't see why they should be included without the autobid.
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They’re
Thanks. You know I never knew the difference between their and they're. Appreciate it. Definitely wasn't just a typo.
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are the st bonaventure guys out for a long? Again not a real impressive resume they beat Syracuse and URI
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Thanks. You know I never knew the difference between their and they're. Appreciate it. Definitely wasn't just a typo.
Got u, homie
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Crean sucks
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Crean sucks
He may suck his way into the U Conn job.
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In dat case, UConn wooda bin bedder off stickin' wit Ollie, aina?
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In dat case, UConn wooda bin bedder off stickin' wit Ollie, aina?
JT III is probably making his case for the job as well.
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I think tommy boy is waiting for miller to clean out his locker. Nicer weather and the girls girls girls
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Tanned Tommy lining up for the Georgia job?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2763687-tom-crean-reportedly-interested-in-georgia-hc-position-after-mark-foxs-firing.amp.html
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The only way TC gets Zona is if they get really slapped and need to be uber clean.
He's the perfect AAC / SEC coach.
Majerus always said UGA was a sleeping giant. Lots of talent in that state.
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Tanned Tommy lining up for the Georgia job?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2763687-tom-crean-reportedly-interested-in-georgia-hc-position-after-mark-foxs-firing.amp.html
Joannie gotta bee gettin' tired of his fat ass 'roundda crib, hey?
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Marshall is beating Western Kentucky...that's likely another bid stealer if it holds.
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Marshall is beating Western Kentucky...that's likely another bid stealer if it holds.
Uh, no.
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Marshall is beating Western Kentucky...that's likely another bid stealer if it holds.
A 10 loss western Kentucky team who has an awful loss at Wisconsin?
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Guys
Help me out.
Didn’t Cuse get nailed badly last year for all good wins being home, and isn’t that where this Marquette team is strong (non-home wins)?
I’m not sure if the “experts” are factoring that in.
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A 10 loss western Kentucky team who has an awful loss at Wisconsin?
Hey...people here think Louisville deserves to be in, what have they done?? The claim that their RPI is what will get them in, well Western Kentucky's RPI is better than Louisville's. If Middle Tenn State and Saint Mary's are in, then Western Kentucky should be in for the same reasons those teams would be..My whole point is...including ANY of them would be absolutely ridiculous, especially before MU, but I bet two of them get in.
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Hey...people here think Louisville deserves to be in, what have they done?? The claim that their RPI is what will get them in, well Western Kentucky's RPI is better than Louisville's. If Middle Tenn State and Saint Mary's are in, then Western Kentucky should be in for the same reasons those teams would be..My whole point is...including ANY of them would be absolutely ridiculous, especially before MU, but I bet two of them get in.
Agree, because if a mid major goes on a run it's a good story but if one of the lesser power conference teams gets a couple wins, it's not nearly as good of a story. All bubble teams have reasons to be left out, but the mid majors get the benefit of the doubt because it makes a better story if they do well. We have a better resume, but just as many reasons to be left out, so we're unlikely to get a bid.
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They aren't taking three teams from CUSA. They would have to take MTSU before WKU.
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They aren't taking three teams from CUSA. They would have to take MTSU before WKU.
CUSA>B14???
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Check out Mizzou's resume, who's assumed to be in. Not great.
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Joannie gotta bee gettin' tired of his fat ass 'roundda crib, hey?
I think his Indiana money runs out this year, so he needs to make some coin. After all he still has that pledge to fulfill.
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Check out Mizzou's resume, who's assumed to be in. Not great.
And one of their best players just got busted for a DWI.
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the media has hyped the ACC, SEC and B12 so much that everyone thinks they deserve a bunch of bids. one or 2 good wins does not make a tournament team need to look at the total package
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USC up on Arizona 25-22. Games on FS1
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Arizona is the 2 big men and a bunch of guys with BAC’s of .3
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St Bonnie’s blows
Jalen Adams would drop 40 on our matador perimeter defense
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Here is the NIT Bracket Matrix. 1 seed versus Wagner.
http://bracketmatrix.com/nit
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Jalen Adams would drop 40 on our matador perimeter defense
And we would rain 3s on whatever the hell they call a defense as well
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Here is the NIT Bracket Matrix. 1 seed versus Wagner.
http://bracketmatrix.com/nit
The NIT will be pretty challenging if these bracketmatrix teams are the ones that end up in the field.
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I don't think I realized how weak USC's resume is until now. On paper they have 4 Q1 wins, which is decent for a bubble team. But then I looked at those 4 Q1 wins:
34 Middle Tennessee State (on neutral court)
42 New Mexico State (on neutral court)
@57 Utah
@72 Oregon
If the committee is truly about who you beat then USC might need to beat Zona tonight to earn their bid. I would argue that our 4th best win (Hall at home) is better than their best win. Throw in a sub 200 loss to Princeton at home and I don't see why they should be included without the autobid.
I was just thinking the same. They would literally have zero wins over tourney teams unless MTSU gets in. The PAC-12 should be a 1-bid league.
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I was just thinking the same. They would literally have zero wins over tourney teams unless MTSU gets in. The PAC-12 should be a 1-bid league.
Yep. But I bet 2 of USC, UCLA and AZ State get in.
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I was just thinking the same. They would literally have zero wins over tourney teams unless MTSU gets in. The PAC-12 should be a 1-bid league.
Looking like it’s gonna be in the committees hands
Zona got on a second half roll
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The way this USA TODAY article I just read, was written, it sounds like they know something that no one else knows. It honestly sounds like they have an insider in the actual committee.
"Providence, meanwhile, shot up to a No. 9 seed after entering the league tournament as a projected No. 12 — in a play-in game. Seton Hall, a projected No. 7 seed, and Butler, another No. 9 seed, are in the safety zone as well.
On the unsafe area of the bubble, it’s the Big East that’s benefiting from ‘Nova and Xavier’s prowess — as well as the Friars’ late surge in the conference tourney. Fringe teams Marquette and Creighton are both two of the last four teams in the projected field — as No. 11 seeds slated to play in Dayton for play-in competition. They’re set to beat out ACC bubble teams Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse."
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
NCAA tournament bracketology: Big East set to win top seeds, bubble battles on Selection Sunday
https://usat.ly/2nTpuku
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The way this USA TODAY article I just read, was written, it sounds like they know something that no one else knows. It honestly sounds like they have an insider in the actual committee.
"Providence, meanwhile, shot up to a No. 9 seed after entering the league tournament as a projected No. 12 — in a play-in game. Seton Hall, a projected No. 7 seed, and Butler, another No. 9 seed, are in the safety zone as well.
On the unsafe area of the bubble, it’s the Big East that’s benefiting from ‘Nova and Xavier’s prowess — as well as the Friars’ late surge in the conference tourney. Fringe teams Marquette and Creighton are both two of the last four teams in the projected field — as No. 11 seeds slated to play in Dayton for play-in competition. They’re set to beat out ACC bubble teams Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse."
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
NCAA tournament bracketology: Big East set to win top seeds, bubble battles on Selection Sunday
https://usat.ly/2nTpuku
“As a whole, the big east “is” sending 7 teams to the tournament.”
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“As a whole, the big east “is” sending 7 teams to the tournament.”
Exactly. And this isn't a "bracketology" article.
This is an article written about the strength of the big east and the Nova/PC game.
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The way this USA TODAY article I just read, was written, it sounds like they know something that no one else knows. It honestly sounds like they have an insider in the actual committee.
"Providence, meanwhile, shot up to a No. 9 seed after entering the league tournament as a projected No. 12 — in a play-in game. Seton Hall, a projected No. 7 seed, and Butler, another No. 9 seed, are in the safety zone as well.
On the unsafe area of the bubble, it’s the Big East that’s benefiting from ‘Nova and Xavier’s prowess — as well as the Friars’ late surge in the conference tourney. Fringe teams Marquette and Creighton are both two of the last four teams in the projected field — as No. 11 seeds slated to play in Dayton for play-in competition. They’re set to beat out ACC bubble teams Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse."
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
NCAA tournament bracketology: Big East set to win top seeds, bubble battles on Selection Sunday
https://usat.ly/2nTpuku
Man do I like the sound of that—500 p cannot get here soon enough.
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The way this USA TODAY article I just read, was written, it sounds like they know something that no one else knows. It honestly sounds like they have an insider in the actual committee.
"Providence, meanwhile, shot up to a No. 9 seed after entering the league tournament as a projected No. 12 — in a play-in game. Seton Hall, a projected No. 7 seed, and Butler, another No. 9 seed, are in the safety zone as well.
On the unsafe area of the bubble, it’s the Big East that’s benefiting from ‘Nova and Xavier’s prowess — as well as the Friars’ late surge in the conference tourney. Fringe teams Marquette and Creighton are both two of the last four teams in the projected field — as No. 11 seeds slated to play in Dayton for play-in competition. They’re set to beat out ACC bubble teams Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse."
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
NCAA tournament bracketology: Big East set to win top seeds, bubble battles on Selection Sunday
https://usat.ly/2nTpuku
In reading the article, that sounds more like insider 'scoop' than idle speculation. Look, it wouldn't be beyond reasonable for the committee to acknowledge that two of the very best teams are in the BEast and that all who played them 4-5 times will be rewarded. There are no off nights in this league. I guess we'll find out tonight.
On the flip side, if we are the sole BEast team in the NIT, I damn well want to win it. Assuming we play up to our potential, we absolutely can. And chick and I will endeavor to get up to MKE for the games.
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“As a whole, the big east “is” sending 7 teams to the tournament.”
I've been very guardedly optimistic since late Wednesday night, we deserve to be in based on the committees criteria. I'm hoping they do the right thing and leave the USC's and ASU's out instead of trying to protect conference embarrassment.
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I have read several statements similar to this one on scoop the last few days. MU is a bad defensive team. That’s a fact. Bad defensive teams do not make deep tournament runs. IMO, we will not be able to win 5 games in a row by outscoring each opponent.
I would love to see it, and I will be at each Milwaukee game, but don’t see it happening.
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Yeah I've been very optimistic (and surprisingly, for all the flack lately I would say Guru has been extremely optimistic as well, so shoutout to him), I think we maybe slide into this tourney. Which would be great.
Having said that, I'm optimistic in everything in life, and I still have never won the lottery or been very lucky.... but we got this. Maybe. I hope!
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Yeah I've been very optimistic (and surprisingly, for all the flack lately I would say Guru has been extremely optimistic as well, so shoutout to him), I think we maybe slide into this tourney. Which would be great.
Having said that, I'm optimistic in everything in life, and I still have never won the lottery or been very lucky.... but we got this. Maybe. I hope!
Shoutout to Guru, you're a nut but you're our nut.
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Shoutout to Guru, you're a nut but you're our nut.
:P
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I don’t get the anti-Big East bias. If Butler, Providence, or Hall we’re in the ACC they’d have better records due to the weak bottom of the league and unbalanced schedule. And they’d be getting higher seeds than 9. The BE this year was very competitive with even the bottom 3 teams playing very good ball in the last half of the season. In small conferences, DePaul and St. John’s would have run away with the league titles. BE definitely deserves 7 teams
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ESPN just listed the last seven teams on the bubble - St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Middle Tennessee State and Oklahoma. Marquette not even listed.
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I don’t get the anti-Big East bias. If Butler, Providence, or Hall we’re in the ACC they’d have better records due to the weak bottom of the league and unbalanced schedule. And they’d be getting higher seeds than 9. The BE this year was very competitive with even the bottom 3 teams playing very good ball in the last half of the season. In small conferences, DePaul and St. John’s would have run away with the league titles. BE definitely deserves 7 teams
I think that's important too, even our bottom feeders aren't terrible, saw it early in conference play that there were no days off.
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I don’t get the anti-Big East bias. If Butler, Providence, or Hall we’re in the ACC they’d have better records due to the weak bottom of the league and unbalanced schedule. And they’d be getting higher seeds than 9. The BE this year was very competitive with even the bottom 3 teams playing very good ball in the last half of the season. In small conferences, DePaul and St. John’s would have run away with the league titles. BE definitely deserves 7 teams
And that's why people on scoop and even people that DONT follow MU on twitter (search for their tweets by using Marquette and not MUBB) have been saying they wouldn't be surprised if MU was in and even not in the "first four" games.
Forgot the tweet but someone that is not a MU fan basically said "9-9, and 4 of those losses are to a #1 seed, and ESPN is pushing ND and Louisville for the last spots?"
(This tweet was in a string about ESPN's bias towards conferences on their channel)
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I have read several statements similar to this one on scoop the last few days. MU is a bad defensive team. That’s a fact. Bad defensive teams do not make deep tournament runs. IMO, we will not be able to win 5 games in a row by outscoring each opponent.
I would love to see it, and I will be at each Milwaukee game, but don’t see it happening.
I agree. I wouldn’t give us very good odds of winning the NIT and I’m not sure we’d even make a deep run.
That being said, let’s hope this this is a moot point by the end of the day!
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Marquette not even listed as first 4 out or last 4 in on espn right now.
What does this mean? We're secured or we're so far out?
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Marquette not even listed as first 4 out or last 4 in on espn right now.
What does this mean? We're secured or we're so far out?
We are only on 9 of 107 brackets on this morning's bracket matrix. I would be extremely surprised if we are in.
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Marquette not even listed as first 4 out or last 4 in on espn right now.
What does this mean? We're secured or we're so far out?
That means according to ESPN(Lunardi) they don't even think MU is close to being in.
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ESPN just listed the last seven teams on the bubble - St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Middle Tennessee State and Oklahoma. Marquette not even listed.
SO YOU'RE SAYING WE'RE IN??????
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ESPN just listed the last seven teams on the bubble - St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Middle Tennessee State and Oklahoma. Marquette not even listed.
If you go by Lunardi, who is pretty good, that reflects a possible #2 seed in the NIT.
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If you go by Lunardi, who is pretty good, that reflects a possible #2 seed in the NIT.
Lunardi is actually pretty bad
That said, we are gonna be out
Don’t agree with it tho
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There is only one opinion that matters: The committee.
The difference between the last bye and an NIT 2 seed is razor thin this year.
I'm tired of the conjecture and have accepted MU's fate is what it is. We might be in, we might be out.
We'll know what the committee decides soon enough.
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We are only on 9 of 107 brackets on this morning's bracket matrix. I would be extremely surprised if we are in.
That settles it. Unless someone can point out a recent selection process that major TV networks got completely wrong up until the results were revealed, I'm going to assume we are out :D
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Jerry Palm just said we are currently the last team in and Davidson is playing to take our spot.
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That settles it. Unless someone can point out a recent selection process that major TV networks got completely wrong up until the results were revealed, I'm going to assume we are out :D
Have to agree here. Hard to imagine there’s any other example recently of a team being “IN” in less than 10% of all projected brackets and then making the field.
I have very little hope.
.
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Jerry Palm just said we are currently the last team in and Davidson is playing to take our spot.
Don’t be surprised if Davidson ends up winning. Rhode Island and the rest of the A10 suck. Should be a one bid league.
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Have to agree here. Hard to imagine there’s any other example recently of a team being “IN” in less than 10% of all projected brackets and then making the field.
I have very little hope.
.
Tulsa was in 2 brackets in 2016. One in bracket matrix and also the one that mattered.
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Jerry Palm just said we are currently the last team in and Davidson is playing to take our spot.
Every talking head, computer graphs, statistics, eye tests, etc. are all over the place. I still believe we are out, with like three or four ahead of MU. It will be interesting to see if the committee explains to the audience which were the last schools not to make in in and where they stood. Hope for the unexpected though.
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Every talking head, computer graphs, statistics, eye tests, etc. are all over the place. I still believe we are out, with like three or four ahead of MU. It will be interesting to see if the committee explains to the audience which were the last schools not to make in in and where they stood. Hope for the unexpected though.
I really don't know. If we get in, the explanation, however, may be the easiest to justify. We won away from home. We played a tough schedule. 7/13 losses to the RPI top-10. We beat tourney teams away from home. Everything the committee has said they value essentially describes our resume.
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Jerry Palm just said we are currently the last team in and Davidson is playing to take our spot.
Hopefully nobody tells Bob McKillop. I'll bet he hasn't forgotten his trip to Lexington in 2013.
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I want to keep hope alive, but a bit of it dies everytime I read a new update or article.
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There is no reason for Notre Dame to be included. None.
RPI 70
SOS 46
Q1 wins: 2
Q3/4 Losses: 3
Record against tourney teams away from home: 3-7 (if CUSE doesn't make it 2-7)
Best wins: Wichita State (12)*, @CUSE (45), Virginia Tech (62)*, Florida State (54), NC State (64)
Worst Losses: Ball State (125), Indiana (124)*, @Georgia Tech (160), Virginia Tech (62), @NC State (64)
Injuries are not supposed to be a factor in the committee's decision. Honestly think that Notre Dame is being pumped to draw eyeballs.
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Well, CBS/Turner isn't pumping Notre Dame. Not sure why ESPN is? Maybe they are pumping the NIT when the Irish are in it.
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Davidson with early lead over Rhode Island.
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Well, CBS/Turner isn't pumping Notre Dame. Not sure why ESPN is? Maybe they are pumping the NIT when the Irish are in it.
Notre Dame has a large fan base. Fans tend to gravitate towards bracketologies that favor their team. Plus, the who injured All American thing is an interesting storyline.
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Davidson gonna win
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Davidson gonna win
They definitely look like the better team and it's not really close.
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URI started slow in the first half and found their stride. Hope they can do it again
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Payback for the 1st rd miracle comeback we had against them a few years back.
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They definitely look like the better team and it's not really close.
Sickening. Likely the end of hope. Wonder if we'll ever know who they edged out.
Side note, FTs matta. Rhode Island currently 5/15
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Poor basketball by both teams
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Both teams are tight. I really like Hurley as a coach.
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If they do indeed miss the tournament at least every MU coach from now on will have concrete evidence that EVERY game matters for their pregame speeches
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They definitely look like the better team and it's not really close.
It’s a 4-point game with 8 min to play. Let’s take a breath, people.
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This game is painful to watch.
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It’s a 4-point game with 8 min to play. Let’s take a breath, people.
I refuse!
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You can tell Scoop is pretty invested in Palm's take on that last bid.
Better D by URI now....here's hoping.
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It’s a 4-point game with 8 min to play. Let’s take a breath, people.
It wasn't when I posted that. And I've watched the entire game. Davidson is generating far better shots.
Hope URI can steal it and continue to lock down on defense.
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Bonus hurts
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This game is painful to watch.
The bricks, the TO's, the fouls, absolutely brutalllll
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Davidson just looks to want it more. Rhode Island has been horrendous shooting and handling the ball today.
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Spoke too soon. Rhode Island just regained the lead. 4 minutes left.
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URI with a beautiful 1 min. Back in the lead from down 7.
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3 quick jumpers (and really only one of them was a good possession) for URI to go up by 1.
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That was a fast swing
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This game is now slightly less painful to watch
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Bail out call
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If this goes to free throws, Davidson wins easy.
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Can we have neither of these teams in the tourney please?
Many MUBB games have been harsh to watch. But this one has been difficult.
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Davidson up 1. Don't have a great feeling here. URI has not had many good possessions the entire 2nd half. Got some tough shots to fall. Probably need to hit a tough shot to win this.
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Can we have neither of these teams in the tourney please?
Many MUBB games have been harsh to watch. But this one has been difficult.
The A10 is absolutely horrible this year and the fact they might get 3 teams in is a travesty
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Absolutely
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That’s what you draw up??
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Final shot. Let’s do it Rams!
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unnatural carnal knowledge
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Absolute losers
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Is our flame completely out?
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Wow. Ummm well ha. Needless to say, I think Nevada and URI screwed us. That's maybe a wrap. Sheesh
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Marquette's bubble just burst, I'm afraid.
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Absolutely pathetic. Damn shame. McKillop's revenge!!!!
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Th Rams may have just bumped us to the NIT.
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a10 should be a 1 bid league what URI beat creighton wow we beat them twice
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Th Rams may have just bumped us to the NIT.
We bumped ourselves.
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Congrats to Davidson. Well-coached team and solid program. Rhode Island played like a team who is about to lose their coach.
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We bumped ourselves.
True. But that was legitimately terrible basketball.
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Well, if there was a slim chance, Davidson prob. just extinguished it. Crap!
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If they do indeed miss the tournament at least every MU coach from now on will have concrete evidence that EVERY game matters for their pregame speeches
I’ve said this for years so hopefully the coaches had this figured out before today.
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Good for Davidson. You win your conference tournament, you deserve to be in. Not so sure Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure should be in. Pretty crummy conference.
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So for me it'd be USC, Arizona State, St Marys, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Louisville, Syracuse, Baylor, Notre Dame for the final 2 spots.
9 teams for those last 2 spots.
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I guess Davidson kind of owed us that one.
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Marquette's bubble just burst, I'm afraid.
Haha, this requires us to have been the last team in, precisely. This is very very far from a certainty. I’m sure the committee will say who that is, but there are about 14 other teams spitting the same narrative right now.
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Interestingly. Look at Twitter. I mean I think we are screwed. But every fan base: Cuse, Louisville, AZ state are all saying the same thing.
Everyone thinks their fan bases bubble just burst.
But yeah I think it's us sadly.
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So for me it'd be USC, Arizona State, St Marys, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Louisville, Syracuse, Baylor, Notre Dame for the final 2 spots.
9 teams for those last 2 spots.
My guess is Ok St and ND because of the Colson injury.
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The A10 is absolutely horrible this year and the fact they might get 3 teams in is a travesty
Interesting hypothetical: if 2 of Bonaventure's best players were out for the loss to Davidson, does that mean they're out for the tournament too? And would that affect decision making?
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A little poetic justice for DavidsonI guess.
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Tournament worthy teams shouldn't lose to DePaul when the season is on the line.
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St.Bonnie should be out.I don't care what there RPI was.Look at the schedule strength
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NIT selection show 7:30 ESPNU...tune in
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Probably 12-15 fanbases think they just got knocked out. Only one did. Here's hoping we were two from the cutline.
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Not looking too hopeful :'(
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It ain’t over till it’s over.
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On CBS, Jerry Palm says that we are now first team out...Davidson has bumped us.
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I don’t think we were in anyways
I’m just more pissed we have to watch even more garbage in this tourney. God these mid majors are bad
O well, next year we will be in easy
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Probably 12-15 fanbases think they just got knocked out. Only one did. Here's hoping we were two from the cutline.
I'm not even sure MU will get a #1 seed in the NIT now. Those go to the first four teams OUT of the NCAAs. Guess we will see how far out they really were.
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I'm not even sure MU will get a #1 seed in the NIT now. Those go to the first four teams OUT of the NCAAs. Guess we will see how far out they really were.
Is that a fact? So whoever the #1 overall NIT seed is was the first team out?
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Tournament worthy teams shouldn't lose to DePaul when the season is on the line.
+1000
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Is that a fact? So whoever the #1 overall NIT seed is was the first team out?
Yes...I never knew that's the way they did it until I saw it on a website yesterday
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Yes...I never knew that's the way they did it until I saw it on a website yesterday
Man. That could make URIs loss really hurt
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I believe after the selection they will have interviews with the committee chair that will bring to light who Davidson bumped. If we’re not in it perhaps Davidson bumped someone else. Also they explain their criteria and maybe we glean why were in or out.
If we’re out all the negative guys get to have their say, ok.
Butif we’re in don’t be railing on the decision and criticizing the fact. If you do, you just can’t be an MU fan. You’ve got to love your negativity more than the team. Some people just love their opinion more than just about anything in the world. Just be happy for it and hope they win.
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Man. That could make URIs loss really hurt
Here it is...
The NIT - What's this all about?
Teams not qualifying for the NCAA tournament have the opportunity to be invited to one of three other postseason tournaments:
National Invitation Tournament - NIT
College Basketball Invitational - CBI
CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament - CIT
The NIT features a 32-team field chosen right after the NCAA chooses the 68 teams in its tournament. It awards automatic bids to regular season conference champions who do not otherwise go to the NCAA tournament. Also, the first 4 teams out of the NCAA tournament become automatic 1 seeds in the NIT.
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I believe after the selection they will have interviews with the committee chair that will bring to light who Davidson bumped. If we’re not in it perhaps Davidson bumped someone else. Also they explain their criteria and maybe we glean why were in or out.
If we’re out all the negative guys get to have their say, ok.
Butif we’re in don’t be railing on the decision and criticizing the fact. If you do, you just can’t be an MU fan. You’ve got to love your negativity more than the team. Some people just love their opinion more than just about anything in the world. Just be happy for it and hope they win.
You expect there will be MU fans bemoaning the fact we got a bid? I can’t imagine anyone would
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Here it is...
The NIT - What's this all about?
Teams not qualifying for the NCAA tournament have the opportunity to be invited to one of three other postseason tournaments:
National Invitation Tournament - NIT
College Basketball Invitational - CBI
CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament - CIT
The NIT features a 32-team field chosen right after the NCAA chooses the 68 teams in its tournament. It awards automatic bids to regular season conference champions who do not otherwise go to the NCAA tournament. Also, the first 4 teams out of the NCAA tournament become automatic 1 seeds in the NIT.
Excellent, thanks. Now don't need any commentary by talking heads at selection show, will know by NIT seeds.
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Starting the day I thought there were 2 spots available for 9 teams. Now there is just one spot for those 9 teams, and I think the chances of MU being that one team are pretty slim.
I almost hope MU ends up outside the first four out. It would sting to think they lost about because of the bid stealers.
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Starting the day I thought there were 2 spots available for 9 teams. Now there is just one spot for those 9 teams, and I think the chances of MU being that one team are pretty slim.
I almost hope MU ends up outside the first four out. It would sting to think they lost about because of the bid stealers.
They didn't...they lost their spot because they didn't beat PC or Georgia at home, or DePaul late in the year. MU stole MU's bid.
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+1000
Haha, you’re unbelievable.
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The NIT is bit more flexible with seedings and tend to see potential matches that will be audience worthy. Very small audience compared to NCAAs. My guess is MU gets a #2 seed and if ND is in NIT, they get a #1 seed, maybe with a possible MU/ND game scenario. Just a guess, guys.......
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The NIT is bit more flexible with seedings and tend to see potential matches that will be audience worthy. Very small audience compared to NCAAs. My guess is MU gets a #2 seed and if ND is in NIT, they get a #1 seed, maybe with a possible MU/ND game scenario. Just a guess, guys.......
Yup, agreed, I posted in the NIT thread a couple days ago it’d seem likely for an MU 1 seed, ND 2 seed in same group. Makes sense to me, be fun to play them either as last BC game or at the Al.
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Yup, agreed, I posted in the NIT thread a couple days ago it’d seem likely for an MU 1 seed, ND 2 seed in same group. Makes sense to me, be fun to play them either as last BC game or at the Al.
Any MU NIT home games will be at The Al.
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They didn't...they lost their spot because they didn't beat PC or Georgia at home, or DePaul late in the year. MU stole MU's bid.
Yes, but MU would not have even had a bid to lose if not for sweeping Creighton, winning at Providence, sweeping Seton Hall. MU put itself in position with good wins and bad losses, that is what young teams without experience often do.
We were expected by most to be a NIT team, that is likely where we land.
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NIT selection show 7:30 ESPNU...tune in
Hoping we won’t have to tune in...but unfortunately I think I will be doing so
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Haha, you’re unbelievable.
Not really, he isn't wrong here.
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They didn't...they lost their spot because they didn't beat PC or Georgia at home, or DePaul late in the year. MU stole MU's bid.
I agree and disagree. Sure, MU could have secured a bid by winning some games during the season. But, if MU ends up as the first or second team out they would have still been in the field despite the other losses during the season. I'd rather that it not come down to that.
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Any MU NIT home games will be at The Al.
We don't know that.
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St.Bonnie should be out.I don't care what there RPI was.Look at the schedule strength
Bona would drop 90 on us. Adams would have 40 alone. He’s just as good as Ponds, if not better. They are as good as your grammar is poor.
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Bona would drop 90 on us. Adams would have 40 alone. He’s just as good as Ponds, if not better. They are as good as your grammar is poor.
Weird then that Kenpom has us 16 spots better than them
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Bona would drop 90 on us. Adams would have 40 alone. He’s just as good as Ponds, if not better. They are as good as your grammar is poor.
How many overtimes are you expecting, because the Bonnies haven't dropped 90 in regulation against a top-200 defense all year.
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Bona would drop 90 on us. Adams would have 40 alone. He’s just as good as Ponds, if not better. They are as good as your grammar is poor.
Stop drinking.
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Bona would drop 90 on us. Adams would have 40 alone. He’s just as good as Ponds, if not better. They are as good as your grammar is poor.
You talk out of your ass. A lot.
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Bona would drop 90 on us. Adams would have 40 alone. He’s just as good as Ponds, if not better. They are as good as your grammar is poor.
LOL
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NIT selection show 7:30 ESPNU...tune in
Aw man, rite wen American Idol is on, hey?
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plus the bonnies are minus 2 starters
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Get hard can't end faster.
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is the sound not synced up for anyone else?
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is the sound not synced up for anyone else?
Same issue
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I'm not going back to analyze this but the fact that we're a 2nd seed must mean that it was 'over' about the time the horn sounded against Nova. The bid stealers didn't impact us. There were exactly 2, correct? The Buzz collapse didn't get ND in. They had more work to do. Same with Louisville. On the flip side, ASU is still dancing even though they haven't won since about Christmas seemingly.
The mountain was very high immediately after the 3 game home sweep. We got to about the Hillary Step in this year's effort. Next year we summit.
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According to twitter, ND got bumped by Davidson beating Rhode Island.
Arizona State's last win of relevance was Dec 10. But it was at Kansas. Combined with Xavier neutral court win and the whole season mattering equally, that got them in. Even though they're resume is essentially two games but what a two games they had.
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I'm not going back to analyze this but the fact that we're a 2nd seed must mean that it was 'over' about the time the horn sounded against Nova. The bid stealers didn't impact us. There were exactly 2, correct? The Buzz collapse didn't get ND in. They had more work to do. Same with Louisville. On the flip side, ASU is still dancing even though they haven't won since about Christmas seemingly.
The mountain was very high immediately after the 3 game home sweep. We got to about the Hillary Step in this year's effort. Next year we summit.
Not necessarily...
If VA Tech maintains thier lead against ND, Nevada & Rhode Island win their garbage tourneys, and UCLA & USC had lost their 1st round Pac12 tourney games to garbage teams instead of ASU, we're likely in.
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Not necessarily...
If VA Tech maintains thier lead against ND, Nevada & Rhode Island win their garbage tourneys, and UCLA & USC had lost their 1st round Pac12 tourney games to garbage teams instead of ASU, we're likely in.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu/giphy.gif)
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Go Alabama
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The mountain was very high immediately after the 3 game home sweep. We got to about the Hillary Step in this year's effort. Next year we summit.
I should have walked out of those games...
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I should have walked out of those games...
I think I recall personally dismissing you. Absolutely your fault Rock.
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Weird then that Kenpom has us 16 spots better than them
that's right, games are decided by computers and not on the court.
KenPom also had St. Mary's 28, Penn State 29 and ND 31. Good luck to all of them in the NCAA tournament. Oh, wait.....
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that's right, games are decided by computers and not on the court.
KenPom also had St. Mary's 28, Penn State 29 and ND 31. Good luck to all of them in the NCAA tournament. Oh, wait.....
You either got your ass kicked way too often growing up, or not nearly enough. I can’t decide which it is
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Mr. Hoyle brings up a good point. While there were some teams below us in KenPom that got in, there were plenty above us who didn't. I tend to think KenPom is the most accurate of the prediction sites. At 53rd, 2 seed in the NIT is about where we should be. KenPom pegged as 50th preseason IIRC, so bully for Mr. Pomeroy.
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Mr. Hoyle brings up a good point. While there were some teams below us in KenPom that got in, there were plenty above us who didn't. I tend to think KenPom is the most accurate of the prediction sites. At 53rd, 2 seed in the NIT is about where we should be. KenPom pegged as 50th preseason IIRC, so bully for Mr. Pomeroy.
Yeah it’s unfortunate he can’t post without sounding like a condescending ass
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As the Big East has solidified ,and become strong top to bottom, it is becoming clear that a strong non con performance is mandatory. I think the Big East results this year are what the conference will look like going forward. That is ,two very strong teams. 5 Teams bunched around .500 and 3 teams that are at the bottom but capable of winning 4-5-6 games.
Hence, the only place to distinguish the resume is the non con. We absolutely need to get the bottom feeders off our schedule and if we have to accept some 2-1 or 3-1 to get some better teams on the schedule than we should do that. I have thought for a long time, Loyola of Chicago would be a good game for us. This year it would have been a great game to have . I think the quality teams we are scheduling are sound. Between the Thanksgiving tournaments, the Gavitt, The Badger and the Power 5 home and homes, we are on firm ground. We just need to get rid of the real dogs.
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Devastated by the draw...but it is what it is. Hard time coming back.
My confidence it making thee tourney misplaced. So will accept the tourney we do have.
All that doubted we'd make it I bow to your wisdom.
Hope we win the NIT and be in a good place for next year.
I am over-n-out until next year.
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GREAT...we're right back on the Bubble next year.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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GREAT...we're right back on the Bubble next year.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Dude's got 11 ACC teams in, I think it's safe to say it's barely informed shot in the dark. Hell, we haven't even gotten through the college free agency period yet.
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Dude's got 11 ACC teams in, I think it's safe to say it's barely informed shot in the dark. Hell, we haven't even gotten through the college free agency period yet.
Ha, I have zero concern. My post was mostly in jest. I think we're at least an #8 seed next year regardless of how the transfer period shakes out.
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GREAT...we're right back on the Bubble next year.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
I find it really hard to believe we'd be behind ALL of Creighton, Butler, Xavier, and especially Seton Hall in the pecking order next year.
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The only thing to take away from this bracket is that Wisconsin is listed in the Next Four out. Here's to hoping for 2 straight years of Wisconsin missing the tourney!!!
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Dude's got 11 ACC teams in, I think it's safe to say it's barely informed shot in the dark. Hell, we haven't even gotten through the college free agency period yet.
Also, Notre Dame as first four out. If 12/15 of the ACC's teams are in the top 50 teams in the country than next year they will be the best conference in the history of college basketball.....and Wake Forest, Gerogia Tech, and Pittsburgh might combine for 3 conference wins total.
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Anyone bother to see how accurate he was last year at this time? My guess is "not very."
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Anyone bother to see how accurate he was last year at this time? My guess is "not very."
Here's his August 2017 bracket.
Among the more glaring errors:
Louisville given a 2 seed
Minnesota given a 4 seed
USC given a 4 seed
St. Mary's given a 5 seed
Wisconsin given a 7 seed
Virginia given an 8 seed
Notre Dame given a 3 seed
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I find it really hard to believe we'd be behind ALL of Creighton, Butler, Xavier, and especially Seton Hall in the pecking order next year.
Seton Hall hehehe
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Still no respect for the Big East even though Villanova smoked everybody on their way to the NC. After Villanova, the highest Big East seed is Butler at 6. Maybe because the guy works for ESPN which does not telecast BE games. This is complete exercise in ridiculousness - apparently Lunardi needs a way to stay relevant!
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Seton Hall hehehe
I don't see any scenario where Seton Hall is a tournament team next year.
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I don't see any scenario where Seton Hall is a tournament team next year.
Powell is still there so it probably depends on how good that Thompson kid is from Cuse and how weak the rest of the BE ends up being.
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As the Big East has solidified ,and become strong top to bottom, it is becoming clear that a strong non con performance is mandatory. I think the Big East results this year are what the conference will look like going forward. That is ,two very strong teams. 5 Teams bunched around .500 and 3 teams that are at the bottom but capable of winning 4-5-6 games.
Hence, the only place to distinguish the resume is the non con. We absolutely need to get the bottom feeders off our schedule and if we have to accept some 2-1 or 3-1 to get some better teams on the schedule than we should do that. I have thought for a long time, Loyola of Chicago would be a good game for us. This year it would have been a great game to have . I think the quality teams we are scheduling are sound. Between the Thanksgiving tournaments, the Gavitt, The Badger and the Power 5 home and homes, we are on firm ground. We just need to get rid of the real dogs.
Who do you expect to be the top 2? At this point, my base case is us in one of those slots.