Bubble Watch 2018

[BM1090]

Creighton will be a terrible matchup.  Howard and Rowsey vs Thomas and Foster.  If Wojo puts Sacar on one of them, then either Howard or Rowsey goes against Mintz or another SF.  Worst guard matchups all year for MU.

Sacar on Foster. Elliott/Hauser on Thomas. Hide Rowsey/Howard on Mintz and don't play them together very often. If you do play them together, try to stash one of them on Hegner and see what happens.

[wisblue]

Obviously. I'm not sure I call 9-9 a complete long shot, but 10-8 is. We've played really good teams 9 of the last 10 games and went 3-7.  We play really good teams 3 of the next 7. I think 5-2 is reasonably attainable, but obviously we need to play better ball then we have since the 9 day layoff.

The other thing to remember is that at 9-9 MU would probably have the 7 seed in the BET, unless the bottom teams suddenly start winning games against the top 6 (they have an oh-fer so far). That would mean a game (likely against St. John's) that would have only bad loss potential. So, they probably have to get to 10-9 to stay alive and maybe win 3 against St. John's.

I also think that the game against Georgetown is going to be tougher than people seem to think. GU has played Creighton and Xavier very tough on the road in the last week, and it's not like MU blew them out the first time. Plus, that game is a quick turnaround from the Saturday game at DePaul.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The other thing to remember is that at 9-9 MU would probably have the 7 seed in the BET, unless the bottom teams suddenly start winning games against the top 6 (they have an oh-fer so far). That would mean a game (likely against St. John's) that would have only bad loss potential. So, they probably have to get to 10-9 to stay alive and maybe win 3 against St. John's.

I also think that the game against Georgetown is going to be tougher than people seem to think. GU has played Creighton and Xavier very tough on the road in the last week, and it's not like MU blew them out the first time. Plus, that game is a quick turnaround from the Saturday game at DePaul.

I don't think anyone thinks @SJU or @Gtown is going to be a cakewalk. They're just games MU needs to win if they want to dance.  I think they can afford to lose one of those if they take 2/3 from Hall and Creighton (2).  Don't think it really matters how we get to 9-9. Road losses at SJU or Georgetown aren't absolute killers...losing at Depaul may be. 

I could see SJU getting 2 wins and Depaul losing out and SJU getting the 9 seed and Depaul the 10 (not sure how tie breaker would shake out).  I agree that beating SJU @ the Garden after theoretically beating them twice in the previous few weeks would be tough.

But...none of this will matter if they don't get to 9. 

[marquette09]

Sacar on Foster. Elliott/Hauser on Thomas. Hide Rowsey/Howard on Mintz and don't play them together very often. If you do play them together, try to stash one of them on Hegner and see what happens.

Or just put up 102 on creighton like last year.   

[BM1090]

Lots of bubble action tonight:


Alabama (9 seed) @ Miss State

South Carolina @ Arkansas (10 seed)

TCU (8 seed; but loss drops them to 4-7 in B12) @ Kansas

Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota

Missouri (10 seed) @ Ole Miss

Boise State (last 4 in) @ New Mexico


More fringe bubble games:

Baylor @ Okla State (both well behind cutline currently, but could play way back onto bubble)

BC @ Notre Dame (both long shots at this point)

UCF @ Cinci

Buffalo (potential bid stealer) @ Cent Mich

Arkansas won. UCF lost. Bama is going to lose.

[BM1090]

Maryland @ Penn State
LSU @ Florida (LSU winning still decent for RPI)
Kansas State @ Texas
Georgia @ Vanderbilt (Wouldn't mind Georgia winning but a loss probably drops them off the bubble)
Texas A&M @ Auburn
NC State @ Virginia Tech (both bubble teams, probably cheering for NC State)

[JakeBarnes]

Adding one more that I think has ramifications:

Marquette @ Seton Hall

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lots of bubble action tonight:


Alabama (9 seed) @ Miss State

South Carolina @ Arkansas (10 seed)

TCU (8 seed; but loss drops them to 4-7 in B12) @ Kansas

Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota

Missouri (10 seed) @ Ole Miss

Boise State (last 4 in) @ New Mexico


More fringe bubble games:

Baylor @ Okla State (both well behind cutline currently, but could play way back onto bubble)

BC @ Notre Dame (both long shots at this point)

UCF @ Cinci

Buffalo (potential bid stealer) @ Cent Mich

Losses: Alabama, TCU, Minnesota (they're toast), BC, UCF

wins: Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Boise state, Notre Dame, Buffalo.

Solid bubble day. Nebraska's case gets more interesting by the game.  Notre Dame stops a 7 game skid.  Buffalo takes care of business, but is a longgggggg shot for an at large.  TCU drops to to 4-7 (sound familiar?). UCF gets absolutely embarrassed by Cinci...that'll knock them down several rungs.   Boise State escapes Albuquerque with a W after being down 6 with a minute or so to go.  Absolute collapse by NM.  Boise State looked....not good. 

[drewm88]

Thanks for putting these together every day. Gives me more reasons to watch basketball. Always good.

[BM1090]

Maryland @ Penn State
LSU @ Florida (LSU winning still decent for RPI)
Kansas State @ Texas
Georgia @ Vanderbilt (Wouldn't mind Georgia winning but a loss probably drops them off the bubble)
Texas A&M @ Auburn
NC State @ Virginia Tech (both bubble teams, probably cheering for NC State)

Maryland and LSU both lost. Kansas State got a nice win. That'll push Texas down further towards the edge of the bubble.

Texas AM up 10 on Auburn. Would be a huge win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Georgia loses at Vandy. That should bump them off the bubble for now.

[BM1090]

VT is going to take care of NC State.

Texas AM up 3 at Auburn with a couple minutes left.

[BM1090]

Huge win for A&M. Bottom of the bubble is strengthening a bit, although the last 6-7 spots still look pretty weak.

[cheese ball chaser]

VT is going to take care of NC State.

Texas AM up 3 at Auburn with a couple minutes left.

TAMU wins on a free throw made by Duane Wilson

[GoldenDieners32]

TAMU wins on a free throw made by Duane Wilson

Knew he had a knee injury but i didnt know he was playing on a torn ACL!!

[BM1090]

Today's Bubble Action

Houston @ SMU (Last 4 in vs. First 4 out)
UCLA @ Arizona (cheering hard for an Arizona win here)
Washington (10 seed) @ Oregon
USC @ Arizona State (Last 4 in vs. 9 seed). Cheer for ASU but if they lose they are sliding dangerously close to the bubble.

[LoudMouth]

Adding to that
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (10 seed)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ FAU

[BM1090]

Adding to that
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (10 seed)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ FAU

I omitted the GT game on purpose because I think their resume is solid, but not sure how I missed WKU. Thanks for the add

[mu03eng]

Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).

Thoughts?

[wisblue]

Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).

Thoughts?

One way to do that would be to take the last four byes, last four in, first four out, and next four out from Lunardi's latest  Bracketology, or another bracket of your choosing. You could also throw in teams with 9 seeds and higher.

[LAZER]

Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).

Thoughts?

I'd use Bracket Matrix (updates daily) and do the last 8 in and first 8 out.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I omitted the GT game on purpose because I think their resume is solid, but not sure how I missed WKU. Thanks for the add

Louisville is the team on the bubble. GT is not.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Today's Bubble Action

Houston @ SMU (Last 4 in vs. First 4 out)
UCLA @ Arizona (cheering hard for an Arizona win here)
Washington (10 seed) @ Oregon
USC @ Arizona State (Last 4 in vs. 9 seed). Cheer for ASU but if they lose they are sliding dangerously close to the bubble.

Adding to that
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (10 seed)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ FAU

I'd also add the following:

Rice @ Middle Tennessee (potential bid steal along with Western Kentucky out of CUSA)

Louisiana Lafayette @ Georgia State (Ragin' Cajuns long shot bid stealer)

Stanford @ Utah (Utah is a ways from the cutline, but a loss pushes them further; Stanford's noncon too horrible to be close to bubble despite 7-4 P12 record)

Belmont @ Tennessee State (Belmont long shot bid stealer)

CSU Bakersfield @ New Mexico State (surprised there isn't more chatter about New Mexico State - I like their resume far more than Boise State; I think they'd have a shot at Dayton if they run the table in the WAC and lose in the WAC tourney)

[Mr. Nielsen]

Great listings! Shouldn't the bubble team be in the bold?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Great listings! Shouldn't the bubble team be in the bold?

We've been listing team to root for in bold.