Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Cincinnati @ Houston (10 seed)
Temple (Next 4 out) @ Wichita State
Ohio State @ Penn State (Fringe Bubble)
Middle Tennessee (bid stealer) @ Southern Miss
Oregon @ USC (First Team Out). Oregon would probably move near the bubble with a win
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley
Western Kentucky (bid stealer) @ North Texas
Oregon State @ UCLA (last 4 in)

I'd add Utah @ Washington   (both bubble teams, but Washington is currently in and Utah is not)

Bubble teams just keep losing. 

[brewcity77]

The computers love Penn State. Amazed to see them as -1 favorites per Vegas and Pomeroy has tOSU as a 1-point favorite. This from a team that beat no one in the non-con and other than the upset at Ohio State, really doesn't have any wins of substance in conference play (Nebraska and Maryland at home, I guess?).

Anyone wondering how we can still be on the bubble should look at Penn State's resume. I realize the Nittany Lions aren't in right now, but their resume is putrid. One Q1 win, two Q3 home losses (Wisconsin and Minnesota), and a terrible RPI (85) and SOS (124).

I don't think they get in, and there's certainly no guarantee we do, but the resumes around the bubble are not good. Also, of our remaining games, we have 2 more Q1 games (both Creighton games), 2 more Q2 games (Georgetown and St. John's), and one Q3 game (DePaul). As much as people want to discount this stretch of our schedule, it's actually tougher than what many of the teams around the bubble will face and provides us with 4 chances for wins that actually improve our resume, no matter what individual Scoopers may think of the bottom of our league.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't think they get in, and there's certainly no guarantee we do, but the resumes around the bubble are not good. Also, of our remaining games, we have 2 more Q1 games (both Creighton games), 2 more Q2 games (Georgetown and St. John's), and one Q3 game (DePaul). As much as people want to discount this stretch of our schedule, it's actually tougher than what many of the teams around the bubble will face and provides us with 4 chances for wins that actually improve our resume, no matter what individual Scoopers may think of the bottom of our league.

Yep.  No matter what the naysayers and negative nancies say, this ball game is far from mathematically over.

[Newsdreams]

Would love Providence beating Butler and SH

[BM1090]

I'd add Utah @ Washington   (both bubble teams, but Washington is currently in and Utah is not)

Bubble teams just keep losing.

I think I'd rather have Washington lose this one. Their advanced numbers are terrible (Kenpom 96) and 1 or 2 more losses could be the difference.

[wadesworld]

Can we add the FBI investigation to this thread?  I'm thinking that's our best hope for an NCAA Tournament bid.

[BM1090]

Cincinnati @ Houston (10 seed)
Temple (Next 4 out) @ Wichita State
Ohio State @ Penn State (Fringe Bubble)
Middle Tennessee (bid stealer) @ Southern Miss
Oregon @ USC (First Team Out). Oregon would probably move near the bubble with a win
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley
Western Kentucky (bid stealer) @ North Texas
Oregon State @ UCLA (last 4 in)

Big win for Houston. Solidifies their spot. Temple blew a 20 point lead to Wichita. Huge loss for them. Penn State probably played their way into the  conversation.

Big losses by NMSU and Washington.  Important win by USC but that won't do much for them as far as getting off the bubble.

[BM1090]

Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure
Bowling Green @ Buffalo - This may be a bit of a stretch, but potential bid stealer.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure
Bowling Green @ Buffalo - This may be a bit of a stretch, but potential bid stealer.

Big one for St. Bonnie.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Wisconsin did in fact jump all the way up to RPI 132 (I believe they were in the 170s) with the win yesterday.  The W @ the Kohl Center is now a Q2 win, but Wisconsin will need to stay under RPI 136 for that to stay a Q2 win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Let's play the blind resume game.  I am going to list 13 team's resumes with what the committee has stated will be their most important factors this season: quadrant wins/losses, SOS, and metrics.

Please select which six teams you believe have the best resumes of this group.

Team 1
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 53
SOS: 105

Team 2
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric:51
SOS: 69

Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 55
SOS: 20

Team 4
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 44
SOS: 72

Team 5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 3-0
Q3: 5-4
Q4: 4-0
Avg Metric: 64
SOS: 10

Team 6
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 2-2
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 54

Team 7
Q1: 2-5
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric: 50
SOS: 41

Team 8
Q1: 4-9
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 69
SOS: 68

Team 9
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: 29

Team 10
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 28

Team 11
Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 96

Team 12
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: 108

Team 13
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 63
SOS: 101

[JoeSmith1721]

Teams 4, 6, 10, 3, 9 and 5.

[BM1090]

Teams 4, 6, 10, 3, 9 and 5.

I think we are one of these teams, but I could be wrong

[Nukem2]

nm

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

No other guesses?  What I laid out is main criteria the selection committee will be using.  It'd be great to get some real feedback on what teams you feel separate themselves from others without the program name attached.  Admittedly, a lot of the resumes looks pretty similar, but that's kind of the point.  There are little nitpicks here and there, but if what the early top 16 bracket reveal showed anything, its that that quadrants are going to be weighted extremely heavily.   

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tomorrow's bubble slate.  I may not leave the house.


SMU @ UCF (both very fringe at this point; UCF further away)

Texas (11 seed) @ Oklahoma

Syracuse (first four out) @ Miami

Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Georgia Tech

Providence (10 seed) @ Butler

Iowa State @ Kansas State (11 seed)

Missouri (8 seed) @ LSU (Either result is probably fine. Mizzou pretty safe at this point, LSU is a ways from the bubble. LSU win helps RPI)

Alabama @ Kentucky (frankly both teams probably safe)

Air Force @ Boise State (first four out)

Texas A&M @ Arkansas (9 seed)

Notre Dame (fringe bubble) @ Boston College

NC State (11 seed) @ Wake Forest

Tennessee @ Georgia (fringe bubble; win wouldn't be bad for MU)

Middle Tennessee (12 seed; potential bid stealer) @ Louisiana Tech

Texas Tech @ Baylor (first four out, very similar resume to MU)

Rutgers @ Maryland (Maryland fringe at best at this point)

Colorado @ Washington (11 seed)

OK State @ TCU (8 seed) (probably want TCU, OK State fringe bubble, TCU probably safe either way)

UT Arlington @ Louisiana (unlikely but potential bid staler)

Western Kentucky (potential bid stealer) @ Rice

North Carolina @ Louisville (10 seed)

Ole Miss @ Miss State (fringe bubble)

Utah (similar boat to MU) @ Washington State

Oregon (fringe bubble) @ UCLA (11 seed)

Oregon State @ USC (11 seed)

[MUDPT]

T-rank does all the work for us.

http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Marquette

[BM1090]

T-rank does all the work for us.

http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Marquette

I looked at that earlier and I don't think that is accurate at all. Doesn't make any sense to me. There is no scenario where we want St. Bonaventure to beat Rhode Island tonight.

[injuryBug]

No other guesses?  What I laid out is main criteria the selection committee will be using.  It'd be great to get some real feedback on what teams you feel separate themselves from others without the program name attached.  Admittedly, a lot of the resumes looks pretty similar, but that's kind of the point.  There are little nitpicks here and there, but if what the early top 16 bracket reveal showed anything, its that that quadrants are going to be weighted extremely heavily.   

I would go with 3,4,6, 5, 9, 10
teams 2 and 5 were my last choices the SOS had me lean towards 5

[barfolomew]

Teams 4, 6, 10, 3, 9 and 5.

I would put them in this order:
10
4
3
9
11
6

Will the committee value Q1 wins over avoidance of Q3/4 losses? Will those trump RPI discrepancies?
We shall see.

[SaveOD238]

Let's play the blind resume game.  I am going to list 13 team's resumes with what the committee has stated will be their most important factors this season: quadrant wins/losses, SOS, and metrics.

Please select which six teams you believe have the best resumes of this group.

Team 1
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 53
SOS: 105

Team 2
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric:51
SOS: 69

Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 55
SOS: 20

Team 4
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 44
SOS: 72

Team 5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 3-0
Q3: 5-4
Q4: 4-0
Avg Metric: 64
SOS: 10

Team 6
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 2-2
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 54

Team 7
Q1: 2-5
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric: 50
SOS: 41

Team 8
Q1: 4-9
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 69
SOS: 68

Team 9
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: 29

Team 10
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 28

Team 11
Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 96

Team 12
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: 108

Team 13
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 63
SOS: 101

Here's my take:

Anyone with a bad loss (and definitely with multiple bad losses) is out.  That takes out teams 1, 5, and 7.

Anyone with 6+ Q1 and Q2 wins, without bad blemishes, is in.  That means teams 3, 4, 6, and 9 are in.  (Team 5 is already out because of 4 Q3 losses)

Anyone with a brutally low SOS due to only beating up on Q3 and Q4 schools is out.  That eliminates 11, 12, and 13. 

The last two spots then come down to teams 2, 8, and 10.   Of those three I like 2 the best, since they've gone closer to .500 in their Q1 and Q2 games while 8 and 10 have each racked up a big loss total.  My guess is that 2 is a higher level mid major while 8 and 10 are middling high majors (like MU, but not MU)

I'm pretty sure we are team 3.  Our resume has more top tier wins than a lot of these schools, but also has a lot of top tier losses.  Add a couple more Q2 and Q3 wins (and maybe a Q1 against Creighton, and Ill feel ok.

[brewcity77]

3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10. All have respectable metrics and I'm looking largely at the ratio of Q1/2 wins to Q3/4 losses.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

T-rank does all the work for us.

http://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Marquette

Not really

[wisblue]

Yep.  No matter what the naysayers and negative nancies say, this ball game is far from mathematically over.

I think most of the naysayers are saying nay because, unless MU does something they haven't been able to do all season (string several good games together) they will play themselves out of even remote consideration.

I think everyone realizes that it doesn't take much these days to sneak into the back end of the NCAA field. It's depressing that MU isn't able to clear that low bar.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think most of the naysayers are saying nay because, unless MU does something they haven't been able to do all season (string several food games together) they will play themselves out of even remote consideration.

I think everyone realizes that it doesn't take much these days to sneak into the back end of the NCAA field. It's depressing that MU isn't able to clear that low bar.

I guess we'll see in the next 3 games.