Bubble Watch 2018

[rocky_warrior]

Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).

Thoughts?

You don't need to create them, NCAA publishes them (updated Feb 6 currently)...
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Feb.%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf

[Mr. Nielsen]

We've been listing team to root for in bold.

Ohhh, make sense!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Out of curiosity, who do we think are our top 10-15 "bubble" competitors? I'm toying with the idea of doing NCAA team sheets for MU and it's nearest competitors on a weekly basis to see how that impacts our view of performance with the idea of maybe doing for all teams next season (assuming I figure out all the right data scraping).

Thoughts?

I did some analysis this afternoon and thought I'd share...

32 AQs (current projected AQ in bold)

36 at larges.

Locks (using the term lightly, but these are teams that are locks, or would need to absolutely implode down the stretch to not get an at large): Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Xavier, Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Clemson, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee, UNC, Arizona, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kentucky, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Miami, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Florida, Creighton, Butler, Florida State, Michigan, Texas (30)

For sure 1 bid leagues: Missouri Valley, Southern, Summit, Ohio Valley, Big Sky, Colonial, Horizon, Patriot, Metro Atlantic, Big West, Atlantic Sun, Northeast, Ivy, Big South, Southland, Mid-Eastern, SWAC (17)

Potential Bid Stealers (in order of likelihood of at large): Nevada (MWC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Boise State (MWC), Western Kentucky (CUSA), New Mexico State (WAC), Buffalo (MAC), Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt), Vermont (American East) (8)

If Conference tourney go chalk, there should be 15 at large bids for "bubble teams".  By chalk I mean teams that would otherwise get an at large if they don't win the AQ win their conference tournament. That is best scenario for bubble teams.

Now if you assume roughly half of the top 8 conference have someone win the AQ that wouldn't otherwise get a bid (probably high) and all of the potential bid stealers lose in their conference tournament, there would be 11 at large bids for "bubble teams". 

Bubble teams*: TCU, Nevada, Providence, Alabama, Arizona State, Texas A&M, Louisville, Missouri, Arkansas, USC, Washington, [CUTLINE WITH LOTS OF BID STEALERS] Marquette, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Houston, [CUTLINE IF CONF TOURNEYS GO CHALK] UCLA, Nebraska, NC State, K State, SMU, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Utah, Buffalo, Louisiana, Vermont (29)

So I'd say there are roughly 29 teams still on the bubble (from fairly safely in at the moment to very fringe), and somewhere between 11-15 will get at large bids depending on how conference tournaments go.

*The order in which I list the bubble teams is based primarily off the current version of Bracket Matrix, however, I did make some adjustments based on my own opinion of watching way too much CBB and paying way too much attention to this stuff.  So, take it FWIW.   

[drewm88]

Loyola Chicago has at-large potential. Currently leading the Valley and favored in their last five. If they win out, they'll enter their conference tournament with an RPI of 31. If the tournament goes chalk, but they drop the final, it would be 35.

[Galway Eagle]

Loyola Chicago has at-large potential. Currently leading the Valley and favored in their last five. If they win out, they'll enter their conference tournament with an RPI of 31. If the tournament goes chalk, but they drop the final, it would be 35.

Then do we talk a Loyola Chicago  Depaul swap for the Big East?

[brewcity77]

Loyola Chicago has at-large potential. Currently leading the Valley and favored in their last five. If they win out, they'll enter their conference tournament with an RPI of 31. If the tournament goes chalk, but they drop the final, it would be 35.

I think they have to win the autobid. They'll have a great RPI, but the 131 SOS and 2-3 record vs Quadrant 1/2 teams while also having 2 Quadrant 4 losses will likely sink any at-large hopes they may have. That Florida win is decent, but it's pretty much their entire resume.

[BM1090]

I'd also add the following:

Rice @ Middle Tennessee (potential bid steal along with Western Kentucky out of CUSA)

Louisiana Lafayette @ Georgia State (Ragin' Cajuns long shot bid stealer)

Stanford @ Utah (Utah is a ways from the cutline, but a loss pushes them further; Stanford's noncon too horrible to be close to bubble despite 7-4 P12 record)

Belmont @ Tennessee State (Belmont long shot bid stealer)

CSU Bakersfield @ New Mexico State (surprised there isn't more chatter about New Mexico State - I like their resume far more than Boise State; I think they'd have a shot at Dayton if they run the table in the WAC and lose in the WAC tourney)

Louisiana lost. MTSU won. Utah is going to win. Louisville won.

Good day for our non con opponents. Vermont, MSM, EIU all win

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Loyola (IL) Resume:
50 RPI
72 SOS
Tier 1: 1-1
Tier 2: 1-2
Tier 3: 11-0
Tier 4: 6-2
Best Wins: @Florida (48), @Illinois St (78), Wright St (94), Bradley (105), Missouri State (109)
Worst Losses: @Milwaukee (258), Indiana State (170), @Missouri St (109), @Bradley (105), @Boise St (31)

At Florida is a nice win....but anytime home wins against Wright State, Bradley, and Missouri State are in your 5 best wins, that's a problem. Combine that with 4 sub 100 RPI losses....you are probably going to need an autobid.

[BM1090]

UCLA is going to beat Arizona which probably puts them solidly ahead of us. Arizona has looked absolutely terrible every time I've watched them this year.

SMU lost to Houston. Not sure if that's the preferred result for us but I'd assume were safely ahead of SMU now.

[Galway Eagle]

Loyola (IL) Resume:
50 RPI
72 SOS
Tier 1: 1-1
Tier 2: 1-2
Tier 3: 11-0
Tier 4: 6-2
Best Wins: @Florida (48), @Illinois St (78), Wright St (94), Bradley (105), Missouri State (109)
Worst Losses: @Milwaukee (258), Indiana State (170), @Missouri St (109), @Bradley (105), @Boise St (31)

At Florida is a nice win....but anytime home wins against Wright State, Bradley, and Missouri State are in your 5 best wins, that's a problem. Combine that with 4 sub 100 RPI losses....you are probably going to need an autobid.

So this is not the MVC that had outside shots of 3-4 bids some years it's basically the shattered reminents

[BM1090]

UCLA wins. Bad.

Washington is going to lose. Good!

USC/ASU tbd.

[BM1090]

ASU finishes the game on a 9-0 run in the last 2 minutes to beat USC by 2. Fun game

[mu03eng]

You don't need to create them, NCAA publishes them (updated Feb 6 currently)...
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/Feb.%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf

oh

[79Warrior]

UCLA is going to beat Arizona which probably puts them solidly ahead of us. Arizona has looked absolutely terrible every time I've watched them this year.

SMU lost to Houston. Not sure if that's the preferred result for us but I'd assume were safely ahead of SMU now.

Agree with you on U of A. Gotta wonder if Miller has what it takes as a game coach. He has talent, that center is a beast and Trier is the real deal. His teams tend to underachieve.

[fjm]

I reaaally don't know where to post this. And this is 100% not the right spot. And it maybe should be Superbar.

But I think everyone here should know that I am at a bar right now with my gf with a live band, and I remember someone posting recently and asking about Freeway and if he was alive or where he was.

Well he is here. Alive and well, and literally singing every word of every song at this concert.

If that's not a good omen for tomorrow, I don't know what is.

FREEWAY! I'm gonna go buy him a drink.

Definitely bubble watch 2018

[Dr. Blackheart]

Freeway is often seen at Goolsby's or at the BC.  Pix?

Oh, and start a new thread...

[Smokin' Jae]

I reaaally don't know where to post this. And this is 100% not the right spot. And it maybe should be Superbar.

But I think everyone here should know that I am at a bar right now with my gf with a live band, and I remember someone posting recently and asking about Freeway and if he was alive or where he was.

Well he is here. Alive and well, and literally singing every word of every song at this concert.

If that's not a good omen for tomorrow, I don't know what is.

FREEWAY! I'm gonna go buy him a drink.

Definitely bubble watch 2018

Bro, don't do it. You are about to lose a half hour of your life that you'll never get back.

[BM1090]

Bro, don't do it. You are about to lose a half hour of your life that you'll never get back.

I was walking out of a MU game a few years back and his car was parked near mine. Talked to me for 20 or 30 minutes despite my obvious attempts to leave

[GooooMarquette]

I reaaally don't know where to post this. And this is 100% not the right spot. And it maybe should be Superbar.

But I think everyone here should know that I am at a bar right now with my gf with a live band, and I remember someone posting recently and asking about Freeway and if he was alive or where he was.

Well he is here. Alive and well, and literally singing every word of every song at this concert.

If that's not a good omen for tomorrow, I don't know what is.

FREEWAY! I'm gonna go buy him a drink.

Definitely bubble watch 2018

Is he still talking to you?

[SaveOD238]

I came on here to find today's bubble action and no one had done it yet, so...

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia

Temple @ South Florida

North Carolina @ NC State

Mississippi St @ Missouri (Missouri win makes it really tough for MSU, but a loss pushes them closer to the bubble)

Loyola-Chicago @ Indiana State (Long shot bid stealer)

Auburn @ Georgia (but a Georgia win helps the RPI)

Rutgers @ Nebraska

Ole Miss @ LSU

DePaul @ Providence

Richmond @ St. Bonaventure

North Texas @ MTSU

Virginia Tech @ Virginia

UCLA @ Arizona St (though an ASU loss pushes them towards the bubble)

Princeton @ Dartmouth

FIU @ Western Kentucky

Texas Tech @ Kansas State

Boise State @ Utah State

I hope I got them all!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I came on here to find today's bubble action and no one had done it yet, so...

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia

Temple @ South Florida

North Carolina @ NC State

Mississippi St @ Missouri (Missouri win makes it really tough for MSU, but a loss pushes them closer to the bubble)

Loyola-Chicago @ Indiana State (Long shot bid stealer)

Auburn @ Georgia (but a Georgia win helps the RPI)

Rutgers @ Nebraska

Ole Miss @ LSU

DePaul @ Providence

Richmond @ St. Bonaventure

North Texas @ MTSU

Virginia Tech @ Virginia

UCLA @ Arizona St (though an ASU loss pushes them towards the bubble)

Princeton @ Dartmouth

FIU @ Western Kentucky

Texas Tech @ Kansas State

Boise State @ Utah State

I hope I got them all!

Thanks! Regarding PC - at this point I think they're pretty much in baring completely collapse.

I can also never find myself rooting for DePaul against potential Big East tourney teams (or Gtown or SJU, really). All it does is lessen chance of 7 bids, and we're most likely going to be the 7th if we get to 9-9, so...

That being said, it'd be great for SJU to finish in 9th to lessen chance of having to play the Johnnies on their home court in the BET opener. Much rather play DePaul and then X.

Guessing PC beats us in current tie breaker, though that's just a guess. Obviously 6 seed would be nice. Get to 10-8, 6 seed shouldn't be a problem.

[goldeneagle91114]

afraid its time for the mods to lock and remove this thread. The boys just down have what its takes...DEFENSE!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1

[79Warrior]

Nope. Can lose one more. Gotta finish 4-1

Not gonna happen.

[Dish]

No nice way of saying this, but this thread isn't relevant to MU any more.