Bubble Watch 2018

[UNC Eagle]

We did this last year and now that we are about halfway through conference season it is about that time. I'll update comprehensively as the day goes on, but here are the big bubble games from this morning's action.

NC State (9th team out) @ UNC
Baylor (7th team out) @ Florida
Texas Tech @ South Carolina (6th team out)
Georgia @Kansas State. Both bubble teams but UGA helps the RPI
Ole Miss @ Texas (current 9 seed)
Oklahoma @ Alabama (10 seed)
Syracuse @ Pitt. Would be a very bad loss for Cuse who is last four in
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech. Both bubble teams
Missouri @ Mississippi State. Missouri on the bubble last for in.
Boise State @ Air Force. Boise State first four out
Marshall @ Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky first four out


If it wasn't obvious, teams we should be cheering for are in bold. Team standing is from bracket matrix

Nice to be able to cheer for UNC to benefit MU.

[BM1090]

Utah lost. Bubble stays weak.

[BM1090]

Houston @ UCF
Virginia @ Syracuse
Miami @ Virginia Tech
Notre Dame @ NC State (both bubble)
Kentucky @ Missouri
South Carolina @ Texas AM both bubble teams
Oklahoma St @ Kansas

There are definitely more that i haven't added. Just did the early games

[willie warrior]

This.

We have shown no reason to have hope we can string victories together, yet some here think we will win 6 out of 7 if we lose to Providence.

Sadly, it ain't happenin'.

Those that think we will win 6 of 7 are in need of drug intervention.

[willie warrior]

Yep. 6-3 down the stretch and it's a lock. I am more doing this as a fun exercise for me because I love watching CBB and assume others here do too.

6-3 is not a lock. That puts us at 19-12. That would likely be bubble worthy--not a lock.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

6-3 is not a lock. That puts us at 19-12. That would likely be bubble worthy--not a lock.

Dude, read the thread. Depends what your definition of bubble is. If you think an 8-10 seed range is bubble, sure.

And MU only has 8 games left.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

6-3 is not a lock. That puts us at 19-12. That would likely be bubble worthy--not a lock.

Willie, you're bad at math.

[BM1090]

Dude, read the thread. Depends what your definition of bubble is. If you think an 8-10 seed range is bubble, sure.

And MU only has 8 games left.

Pretty convinced he's trolling at this point

[willie warrior]

Willie, you're bad at math.

Sorry, the other guy said 6-3. Did not look at the schedule. 19-11 is not a lock either.

[BM1090]

Sorry, the other guy said 6-3. Did not look at the schedule. 19-11 is not a lock either.

Said that before the Butler game. But you're still wrong.

That said, we look pretty awful against PC again

[79Warrior]

St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown are garbage both home and away which is 3 out of the 5 road games. Doesn't mean we can't lose to them but realistically we shouldn't.

Looks like somebody forget to tell St. John's they are garbage.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sorry, the other guy said 6-3. Did not look at the schedule. 19-11 is not a lock either.

Still bad at math

[wadesworld]

How's the NIT bubble looking?

[BM1090]

Bubble teams continue to lose. Bubble continues to get softer. Shame we couldn't solidify our position today.

In all seriousness, the bubble is beyond awful. 9-9 would do it. We just haven't shown the ability to get there.

[wisblue]

Really hard to see MU turning things around enough to get to 9-9. The team looks spent and teams have figured out how to neuter the once high powered offense. Everyone in the conference, except for maybe DePaul, seems to have improved more than MU as the season has progressed.

MU will probably be an underdog, or very close to it, in each of the 7 remaining games except at DePaul. The NIT is hardly a lock, and how much does it really matter?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Bubble teams continue to lose. Bubble continues to get softer. Shame we couldn't solidify our position today.

In all seriousness, the bubble is beyond awful. 9-9 would do it. We just haven't shown the ability to get there.

Agree with all of this

[bilsu]

Bubble teams continue to lose. Bubble continues to get softer. Shame we couldn't solidify our position today.

In all seriousness, the bubble is beyond awful. 9-9 would do it. We just haven't shown the ability to get there.

I think St. John's beating Duke guarantees the Big East 7 bids, if the Big East has 7 teams 9-9 or above. I getting a little worried about MU getting to 9-9. It is not because MU lost 4 straight. I expected that to happen. What worries me is that St. John's and Georgetown are playing better and it has become less likely that we can go 4-0 in the remaining games against the bottom three. I am pretty sure we can win at least one of three games against Creighton and Seton Hall, but I think we are going to lose a game to the three bottom teams.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think St. John's beating Duke guarantees the Big East 7 bids, if the Big East has 7 teams 9-9 or above. I getting a little worried about MU getting to 9-9. It is not because MU lost 4 straight. I expected that to happen. What worries me is that St. John's and Georgetown are playing better and it has become less likely that we can go 4-0 in the remaining games against the bottom three. I am pretty sure we can win at least one of three games against Creighton and Seton Hall, but I think we are going to lose a game to the three bottom teams.

I can't believe I'm saying this but I agree with the entire post.

I think 7 BE bids is a real possibility if MU goes 9-9. At this point it's probably our last hope unless PC falls off a cliff and can't get to .500. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

To further describe the bubble, 12-10 Temple who is 4-6 in the AAC has themselves a big game today. @Tulane who they lost to by 10 at home. Temple is very much in the bubble conversation due to a top 10 SOS despite league.

There is a zero percent chance that anyone from the BE isn't dancing with a .500 or better record.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

After losing 4/5, Lunardi, the most respected bracketologist, still has MU has the 1st team out of the tournament in his update this morning. 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[BM1090]

After losing 4/5, Lunardi, the most respected bracketologist, still has MU has the 1st team out of the tournament in his update this morning. 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Yep. Arguably the worst bubble ever. MU's computer #s continue to be solid.

I'll keep this going until Marquette has 10 conference loses.

Syracuse (next 4 out) @ Louisville

[wisblue]

Yep. Arguably the worst bubble ever. MU's computer #s continue to be solid.

I'll keep this going until Marquette has 10 conference loses.

Syracuse (next 4 out) @ Louisville

Orange add a quality road win to their resume.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Orange add a quality road win to their resume.

And Louisville slips closer to bubble. Their resume isn't very impressive.

[brewcity77]

I did a blind bubble run on Twitter today looking at the resumes of the last 8 teams in and comparing them to Marquette assuming we get to 9-9 (a big ask at this point, but the baseline for any realistic bubble talk). Even with 3-5 potential bid stealers, I believe Marquette would get in at 9-9. They would have to have those wins before MSG, and would be better off getting at least one win there (assuming they start from the 7 spot), but strictly in terms of what they need from this season, I still firmly believe winning the 4 games against the three bottom feeders and getting one against Creighton or SHU would be enough.

That said, like bilsu, my biggest worry is dropping one of those 4.

[GoldenDieners32]

I did a blind bubble run on Twitter today looking at the resumes of the last 8 teams in and comparing them to Marquette assuming we get to 9-9 (a big ask at this point, but the baseline for any realistic bubble talk). Even with 3-5 potential bid stealers, I believe Marquette would get in at 9-9. They would have to have those wins before MSG, and would be better off getting at least one win there (assuming they start from the 7 spot), but strictly in terms of what they need from this season, I still firmly believe winning the 4 games against the three bottom feeders and getting one against Creighton or SHU would be enough.

That said, like bilsu, my biggest worry is dropping one of those 4.

But what if we drop 1 of those 4 and replace it with a win and SHU or 2 creighton wins?