Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Similar but ours is a bit safer right now. 8 of our 9 losses are to the top 30 RPI. Utah has 4 losses RPI 40+ and 1 of them is to RPI 152 UNLV

They also play in a pretty meh league.

[skianth16]

Similar but ours is a bit safer right now. 8 of our 9 losses are to the top 30 RPI. Utah has 4 losses RPI 40+ and 1 of them is to RPI 152 UNLV

I don't know... They have one more top 25 win than us, and the difference between a loss to 27 vs 41 seems like splitting hairs a bit to me. The fact that our worst loss is sitting at 52 right now sure does seem to be a big thing in our favor. I do think we have a better resume, but Utah's is respectable.

Regardless of how they compare to us, I think Utah gets in this year. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough, and their 2 games against possible tournament teams (Nevada, Boise St) will come at home.

[MUFlutieEffect]

Regardless of how they compare to us, I think Utah gets in this year. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough, and their 2 games against possible tournament teams (Nevada, Boise St) will come at home.

Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on

[Dr. Blackheart]

Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on

Wait. The Legend is unretiring?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on

Priceless

[cheebs09]

Anybody subscribe to The Athletic? Eammon Brennan posted his first Bubble Watch.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Anybody subscribe to The Athletic? Eammon Brennan posted his first Bubble Watch.

Yes.  BTW - everyone should subscribe to the Athletic.  Best $4/month you'll spend.

Here is BE summary:

Locks: Villanova, Xavier
Should be in: Seton Hall, Creighton
Work to do: Butler, Providence, Marquette

As previously discussed, Villanova was on a historic offensive pace coming into Thursday night's matchup with Creighton. It won 98-78. Seriously: The Wildcats are scoring in a way very few teams in the past two decades have come anywhere close to matching. Savor it.

Seton Hall (17-5, 6-3 – RPI: 18, SOS: 30): In the moment, Seton Hall's back-to-back losses to Creighton and Xavier seemed dire; a couple weeks later, they don't seem like all that big of a deal. The Pirates rebounded with a businesslike performance at DePaul and an easy win over Providence on Wednesday. They may not be an absolute lock, and the Dec. 16 loss at Rutgers is a black eye, but they're in good shape all the same.

Creighton (17-6, 7-4 – RPI: 27, SOS: 72): Is Creighton going to make the tournament? Almost certainly. Would we caution against overconfidence at this stage? Also, yes. The Bluejays' best wins have all come at home, and none of their top-60 victories (Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, Nebraska) is truly eye-popping. Martin Krampelj's injury has put stress on Greg McDermott's rotation smack in the heart of the season. And if things do get dicey, a nonconference strength of schedule in the 270s could hurt. Just fair warning, that's all.

Butler (16-7, 6-4 – RPI: 25, SOS: 25): Analytically, it's easy to understand Butler's 101-93 win over Villanova on Dec. 30 as the result of a fleeting moment of basketball perfection, a record-setting, out-of-body shooting experience that comes along (at most) once every few decades. True enough. But a win is a win, and wins don't get much, um, winnier than a win over Villanova. A neutral-court victory over Ohio State (and former coach Chris Holtmann) may not have that kind of cachet, but it pairs nicely. Good numbers, no awful losses … Butler has some shoring up to do, sure, but its resume looks a lot better than most of the bubble.

Providence (14-8, 5-4 – RPI: 34, SOS: 19): Left for dead last February, the Friars engineered one of the most remarkable bubble comebacks the Watch had ever seen, winning their final six regular-season games, turning a 14-11 (4-8) record into a 20-11 (10-8) mark worthy of an at-large bid. (Providence lost to USC in the play-in game, but still, it was pretty rad.) This year the Friars found themselves in a not-dissimilar position at the start of January, when weak work in the nonconference had them well off the bracket-projection radar. Four straight wins from Jan. 6 to Jan. 20 – vs. Xavier, at DePaul, vs. Butler, vs. Creighton – felt like a mini-repeat of 2017,. with the benefit of being much earlier in the calendar. Maybe things won't need to be quite so dramatic this time around?

Marquette (13-9, 4-6 – RPI: 53, SOS: 11): Marquette is a thrilling offensive showpiece. Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey and Sam Hauser are often an unguardable three-headed scoring monster, one of the nation's best three-man pace-and-space attacks. Unfortunately, the Golden Eagles don't really guard. As good as they've been on one end, the Big East's worst per-trip defense has been even worse on the other, and a 2-5 record in their past seven is a testament to the benefit of occasional stops. On the other hand, five of their nine losses have come against top-10 RPI teams, and their schedule rates out highly. They might torch their way into the tourney yet.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm surprised Utah is only in a handful of brackets. Their resume is very similar to ours. Right now, I would assume Utah should be in.

We have a significantly better SOS. That also have a brutal loss to UNLV (RPI 155). And fair or not, the PAC 12 is regarded as a worse basketball league than the Big East by a pretty wide margin.

[DCHoopster]

Have to win some games, then it will all play out in the end.  There will be many bubble teams going in and out of the tournament in the next month.

[skianth16]

Seems to be some confusion between Utah & Utah State going on

Ha, oops. My bad. Utah's remaining schedule only has USC and Washington as potential tournament opponents. But they do play a number of top 100 teams, so there may be a chance for an upset in there. I assume they'll finish the season with an RPI above ours but will still have that one ugly loss on their record.

[skianth16]

We have a significantly better SOS. That also have a brutal loss to UNLV (RPI 155). And fair or not, the PAC 12 is regarded as a worse basketball league than the Big East by a pretty wide margin.

Our SOS is better, but that's not really important when looking at whether Utah is a contender for an at large bid. Their SOS is still strong at 35, and they have 3 top 50 wins to their name. I think that puts them right in the mix.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't know... They have one more top 25 win than us, and the difference between a loss to 27 vs 41 seems like splitting hairs a bit to me. The fact that our worst loss is sitting at 52 right now sure does seem to be a big thing in our favor. I do think we have a better resume, but Utah's is respectable.

Regardless of how they compare to us, I think Utah gets in this year. Their remaining schedule isn't too tough, and their 2 games against possible tournament teams (Nevada, Boise St) will come at home.

Utah has only played two games against RPI top 25 teams and they lost both (Arizona x2).

Conversely, we have played 7 games against RPI top 25 teams (and 9 against top 26) and have won one of them.

As others have pointed out, I think you have your Utah schools mixed up. But you might be right about Utah making it. They are currently projected to either win or be in a toss up in all of their remaining games. Here's their approximate numbers for each possible outcome:

8-0: RPI 25 SOS 52
7-1: RPI 38 SOS 52
6-2: RPI 45 SOS 54
5-3: RPI 55 SOS 54

They need 7-1 in order to be a lock but 6-2 should do it. I would be very nervous as a Ute fan at 5-3.

[79Warrior]

We have a significantly better SOS. That also have a brutal loss to UNLV (RPI 155). And fair or not, the PAC 12 is regarded as a worse basketball league than the Big East by a pretty wide margin.

None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.

[skianth16]

8-0: RPI 25 SOS 52
7-1: RPI 38 SOS 52
6-2: RPI 45 SOS 54
5-3: RPI 55 SOS 54

They need 7-1 in order to be a lock but 6-2 should do it. I would be very nervous as a Ute fan at 5-3.

Wow, their SOS really drops off for the remainder of the season. A 6-2 finish with an SOS of 35 (today) is a much different story than an SOS of 54 (projected year-end). That could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wow, their SOS really drops off for the remainder of the season. A 6-2 finish with an SOS of 35 (today) is a much different story than an SOS of 54 (projected year-end). That could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.

Yep. It's good to be in the Big East. Though to be fair, ours is also going to drop by 10-15 points.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.

I mean, you have to consider the schedule.  Sure we're 4-6, but 2 of those losses are to legitimately the best team in the country by a fair margin, and another 2 losses to a top 5 team that has a very good chance to win a national championship.  Obviously, Butler has Marquette's number.  But we've got a real good chance to win 5 of our next 7 games, but that includes losing 2 of the next 4.  The schedule matters. 

But you're right, losing tomorrow makes everything a lot more difficult. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.

Well yeah, winning games is important. I wouldn't say that losing Saturday means the climb is "almost insurmountable." We have a very friendly end to our schedule. I could see us going 6-1 for the lock or 5-2 for the should be in. That being said, let's just win tomorrow and take some of the pressure off. I think we can all agree with that.

[Jockey]

None of this matters if we can't string together some wins. We lose Saturday and the uphill climb will be almost insurmountable.

This.

We have shown no reason to have hope we can string victories together, yet some here think we will win 6 out of 7 if we lose to Providence.

Sadly, it ain't happenin'.

[skianth16]

This.

We have shown no reason to have hope we can string victories together, yet some here think we will win 6 out of 7 if we lose to Providence.

Sadly, it ain't happenin'.

We haven't done a great job of it so far this year, but we also haven't had this easy of a stretch in our schedule. It's much harder to string together wins when you have top 10 and top 25 teams sprinkled in every other game.

[79Warrior]

Well yeah, winning games is important. I wouldn't say that losing Saturday means the climb is "almost insurmountable." We have a very friendly end to our schedule. I could see us going 6-1 for the lock or 5-2 for the should be in. That being said, let's just win tomorrow and take some of the pressure off. I think we can all agree with that.

I am not disagreeing with your POV. I just think if we lose Saturday, 5 of the last 7 is on the road. How is that favorable regardless of the opponent. I just do not see 6-1, sorry.

[mu03eng]

I am not disagreeing with your POV. I just think if we lose Saturday, 5 of the last 7 is on the road. How is that favorable regardless of the opponent. I just do not see 6-1, sorry.

St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown are garbage both home and away which is 3 out of the 5 road games. Doesn't mean we can't lose to them but realistically we shouldn't.

[79Warrior]

St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown are garbage both home and away which is 3 out of the 5 road games. Doesn't mean we can't lose to them but realistically we shouldn't.

I never take any road game for granted, regardless of opponent.

[mu03eng]

I never take any road game for granted, regardless of opponent.

We absolutely can, we don't play the games. And if we lose those games (which would be possible) it tells me this team isn't good, not that any of those teams aren't bad. What I've seen out of this team to date tells me we are better than those 3 teams regardless or where we play.

[BM1090]

We absolutely can, we don't play the games. And if we lose those games (which would be possible) it tells me this team isn't good, not that any of those teams aren't bad. What I've seen out of this team to date tells me we are better than those 3 teams regardless or where we play.

Kenpom has us as a 1 point favorite @ SJU. They aren't nearly as bad as their record.

Georgetown and DePaul are bad, though.

[vogue65]

We absolutely can, we don't play the games. And if we lose those games (which would be possible) it tells me this team isn't good, not that any of those teams aren't bad. What I've seen out of this team to date tells me we are better than those 3 teams regardless or where we play.

I think it is more match ups and place in the schedule.  After Vilanova we had an emotional let down, not uncommon.
Playing after a layoff then two ranked teams is impossible.   It is not the coach, it is not the players, it is/was the schedule.