Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?

[Tugg Speedman]

I am not contradicting myself.

The market goes up, the market goes down.  But even when it goes down a lot, it always comes back up even more.  I have been saying this from the start.

I suspect you panic so much because of what you said before - you've never had a "real" job, so you depend on your investments for your day to day bills.  I don't.  My investments have nothing to paying my bills now, five years from now, or even ten years from now.  They are all about paying bills fifteen, twenty and thirty years down the road.  For you, panic might make sense.  For me to buy into your panic would be stupid.

Investing is about competing alternatives.  The stock market is just one alternative.

The stock market is the second to last horse in a race (cash is last) and you arguing that as long as you left the starting gate (which it has) you're winning.  Every other horse is doing better, further from the gate than the stock market horse.

Again, since 2000, every time the stock market horse falls behind, bad things happen.  It happened in 2000 and 2007.  It is happening again now.

And yes, I don't have a real job, and I'm very happy that I have been able to do this for 30 years without having to resort to getting a real job (although I came close to crapping out in 1998).  I do have employees so I sign the front of paychecks.

[Tugg Speedman]

What? You didn't get the memo?

We are doomed! DOOMED, I say!!!

When bad things happen, the Fed will probably drive interest rates to negative and the returns will be YUUGGE while stocks lose.

I'm very bullish on developed market Sovereign debt yields.  Gilts and Bonds lead the pack.

[GooooMarquette]

Investing is about competing alternatives.  The stock market is just one alternative.

The stock market is the second to last horse in a race (cash is last) and you arguing that as long as you left the starting gate (which it has) you're winning.  Every other horse is doing better, further from the gate than the stock market horse.

Again, since 2000, every time the stock market horse falls behind, bad things happen.  It happened in 2000 and 2007.  It is happening again now.

And yes, I don't have a real job, and I'm very happy that I have been able to do this for 30 years without having to resort to getting a real job (although I came close to crapping out in 1998).  I do have employees so I sign the front of paychecks.

Thanks - you confirmed the disconnect.  I won't argue with the investment strategies of someone who needs their investment money now for day to day cash flow, when I need it later.

I know I'll be fine, you seem just as convinced that you'll be fine.  Time to let it go.

[speri]

Anyone care to chime in on the recent surge* in the stock market?

* surge... surge.. I meant surge...

[Herman Cain]

Anyone care to chime in on the recent serge in the stock market?

If you have stocks hopefully your participating.

[warriorchick]

Anyone care to chime in on the recent serge in the stock market?

Is this the Serge to whom you are referring?  If so, I am on my way over to Wall Street right now.



In unrelated news, the Dow is up 900 points since election day.

[mu03eng]

Anyone care to chime in on the recent serge in the stock market?

Do you mean this Serge?

[Pakuni]

I think it's this Serge

[cheebs09]

I think it's this Serge

I tried to find one of these. Nice work!

[Benny B]

Perhaps he meant to say Sarge with all those donuts he's making in the market these days.




But yes... I have thoughts.  Most predominant and simplistic of which involves the concept that you'd have to be a pretty dim bulb not to believe that when the dust settles, the people moving the markets deep down believe that a Trump presidency is going to be good for business.

I am not saying that I believe what other people believe or that what other people believe is right or wrong because none of that is relevant... allz I'm saying is simply what I believe that other people believe, because after all, I don't move the market, other people do.

[brandx]

Perhaps he meant to say Sarge with all those donuts he's making in the market these days.




But yes... I have thoughts.  Most predominant and simplistic of which involves the concept that you'd have to be a pretty dim bulb not to believe that when the dust settles, the people moving the markets deep down believe that a Trump presidency is going to be good for business.

I am not saying that I believe what other people believe or that what other people believe is right or wrong because none of that is relevant... allz I'm saying is simply what I believe that other people believe, because after all, I don't move the market, other people do.

What about the people who moved into the market over the last 8 years? In case you forgot, it went up somewhere in there range of 8,000+ points (just to use one example.)

Apparently, the people moving the markets deep down believed that an Obama presidency was going to be good for business.

[Benny B]

What about the people who moved into the market over the last 8 years? In case you forgot, it went up somewhere in there range of 8,000+ points (just to use one example.)

Apparently, the people moving the markets deep down believed that an Obama presidency was going to be good for business.

Yeah, you kind of missed the point there.  It wasn't political commentary... it was commentary on human behavior and reactionary investing.  In other words, I don't care if you're right or wrong, I already know what you're thinking.

However, it is quite Chicos of you to use an 8-year run to draw a comparison to a 3-week span in 2016.

[Golden Avalanche]

The market is also buying in sectors that can build a buffer to what may -- or may not -- come to reap in late Q1 or Q2 of 2017. No matter who was elected, the market was going to respond kindly but based on differing intents. It's equivalent to the annual May market of years past as you ensure your next three months in one fell swoop rather then a short term (and possibly short-sighted) reactionary outlook and subsequent action.

[mu03eng]

Perhaps he meant to say Sarge with all those donuts he's making in the market these days.




But yes... I have thoughts.  Most predominant and simplistic of which involves the concept that you'd have to be a pretty dim bulb not to believe that when the dust settles, the people moving the markets deep down believe that a Trump presidency is going to be good for business.

I am not saying that I believe what other people believe or that what other people believe is right or wrong because none of that is relevant... allz I'm saying is simply what I believe that other people believe, because after all, I don't move the market, other people do.

Is there some sort of indicator in the stock ticker that would resemble a rhombus of terror or a parabola of mystery?

By the way, we should be best friends.

[Benny B]

Is there some sort of indicator in the stock ticker that would resemble a rhombus of terror or a parabola of mystery?

By the way, we should be best friends.

Nope.  Just a triangle of confusion.

[Eldon]

UK flag removed in Brussels. 

And now comes the internal battle between Scotland and England.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/31/scotland-has-democratic-mandate-for-new-independence-referendum-sturgeon-to-say-on-brexit

Buckle up, everyone.

[Cheeks]

God bless England

[Galway Eagle]

God bless England

The country that's responsible for oppressing people all over the word for race, ethnicity, and religion as recently as the 90s? You've got problems

[Hards Alumni]

The country that's responsible for oppressing people all over the word for race, ethnicity, and religion as recently as the 90s? You've got problems

And also responsible for a lot of good.

They're xenophobic fools for leaving, but there are exceedingly stupid groups in a lot of countries.

Also, the market is going to trend down until this virus is slowed down.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

God bless England

"I'll stand up and be the first to admit being an epic hypocrite on this over the years.  100%.  OWNING IT! The worst at times.  It really should stop." --Jams

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

UK flag removed in Brussels. 

And now comes the internal battle between Scotland and England.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/31/scotland-has-democratic-mandate-for-new-independence-referendum-sturgeon-to-say-on-brexit

Buckle up, everyone.

And Northern Ireland.
They extremely unhappy with this too.

[The Sultan]

God bless England

Absolutely. They're gonna need it.

Should have gone all in and adopted the Euro.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

And Northern Ireland.
They extremely unhappy with this too.

Simple solution:  26+6=1.

[Cheeks]

The country that's responsible for oppressing people all over the word for race, ethnicity, and religion as recently as the 90s? You've got problems

The country responsible for educating billions of people, bringing civilization to vast parts of the world, immense advances in medicine, and on and on....God Bless England

[Cheeks]

Absolutely. They're gonna need it.

Should have gone all in and adopted the Euro.

LOL