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Author Topic: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?  (Read 55864 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« on: June 28, 2015, 01:08:12 PM »
Looks like Greece is going to default on June 30 (Tuesday).  Wall Street has been freaking out all weekend.  The German Stock market is being called down 3.5% to 4.0% tomorrow.  Every major bank is holding conference calls for clients tonight in preparation for what they call a potentially historic day tomorrow.

We'll see what actually happens.  Maybe historic, maybe not. But people that watch this stuff are very concerned.

Added

Sunday early afternoon update ... The German futures exchange trades Dow jones futures.  Just opened down about 300.  German and UK stocks much worse.

Greek banks and stock market will not open Monday

« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 01:06:53 PM by Heisenberg »

tower912

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2015, 01:42:32 PM »
It will be down, possibly significantly.   I think 'crash' implies a total meltdown, which I seriously doubt. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Warriors10

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2015, 02:00:34 PM »
It will almost certainly decline, but crash?...Guess it's dependent on what you define as a crash.  The market had a Greece default probability of 25-30% during the latter parts of last week which will certainly be much higher tomorrow morning.  The biggest thing here is nobody trusts the Greek government.  You come out of left field with a referendum, which 1) will either not pass or 2) it passes but do you trust the Greek government to actually implement it.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2015, 02:50:51 PM »
This should already be priced in.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2015, 03:16:16 PM »
This should already be priced in.

Apparently not or none of this should be happening this weekend.

77ncaachamps

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2015, 03:41:05 PM »
Didn't the markets have months if not years to prepare for this?
[This space reserved for a Jordan King highlight.]

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2015, 04:06:28 PM »
Didn't the markets have months if not years to prepare for this?

The market did not believe this would happen ... theoretically still might not default as it doesn't occur until Tuesday, so their is time but no one is making any moves to prevent it from happening.

And yes, it is very bad if they do default.




Jay Bee

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2015, 04:15:01 PM »
Theoretically priced in long ago... the reality is the markets are not based on logic.  If they were, investing would be simple   

Let's get dis cash!! #shortsella

4everwarriors

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2015, 05:16:48 PM »
Respect the process, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

chapman

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2015, 05:55:51 PM »
Freak out sale on stocks coming?  Cool.

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2015, 05:59:55 PM »
You meant the communist they elected in Greece hasn't been able to snap his fingers and make the magic fairy dust smooth things over?  Then again, I would be surprised to see capitulation by the EU at the 11th hour.  All the threats to cut them off and stop the nonsense, but do they ever do it?

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2015, 06:16:55 PM »
Bunch of fools will sell off Monday, causing the market to drop.  The same fools will start buying again on Tuesday, causing the market to bounce right back. Seems to happen every time any piece of economic news comes out lately.  Janet Yellen opens her mouth - stocks tumble, then bounce back.  Oil prices drop - stocks tumble, then bounce back.  Oil prices rise - stocks tumble, then bounce back. 

Whatever happened to buy-and-hold, dollar cost averaging?  Am I the only person who still does that?


ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2015, 07:42:02 PM »
Bunch of fools will sell off Monday, causing the market to drop.  The same fools will start buying again on Tuesday, causing the market to bounce right back. Seems to happen every time any piece of economic news comes out lately.  Janet Yellen opens her mouth - stocks tumble, then bounce back.  Oil prices drop - stocks tumble, then bounce back.  Oil prices rise - stocks tumble, then bounce back. 

Whatever happened to buy-and-hold, dollar cost averaging?  Am I the only person who still does that?



I normally do it, but I also believe a lot of the current market is smoke and mirrors as a result of QE.  I got in very low for Netflix, Facebook, Sirius, Dish Network and a few others.  Some I recently pared back, but not all.  I don't like to see all, but profit taking is ok when things feel shaky as they do to me right now.  If I'm wrong, no big deal as I made some money because I got in at such low prices.  If I'm right, then I got out ahead of the downturn.

Thing is, where to put the profits.  Not a lot that looks very attractive to me right now.  Maybe rainbow flag makers.

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2015, 08:09:31 PM »
As we all know, the science of economics is anything but settled, or even predictable.

One outlook from today.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2015, 08:21:55 PM »

Thing is, where to put the profits.  Not a lot that looks very attractive to me right now.


I hear what you're saying overall, but that last part is the key for me.  The U.S. Markets may look overpriced, but there really aren't any better looking options.  Europe is even more tenuous than we are over Greece; China and Japan have already surged quite a bit this year; and the 1% max that you'd get from a savings account won't even keep up with inflation.  I keep small parts of my portfolio in each of those things, but they just don't look strong enough to cause me to make a sudden shift.

And yes, I keep a small Roth IRA that I use solely for a few individual stocks that I attempt to buy low and sell high.  It's enough that I can make a few thousand if a pick goes well, or lose likewise if it doesn't.  In any event, that account is such a small part of my holdings that good or bad timing won't make a huge impact either way.

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2015, 09:17:15 PM »
I hear what you're saying overall, but that last part is the key for me.  The U.S. Markets may look overpriced, but there really aren't any better looking options.  Europe is even more tenuous than we are over Greece; China and Japan have already surged quite a bit this year; and the 1% max that you'd get from a savings account won't even keep up with inflation.  I keep small parts of my portfolio in each of those things, but they just don't look strong enough to cause me to make a sudden shift.

And yes, I keep a small Roth IRA that I use solely for a few individual stocks that I attempt to buy low and sell high.  It's enough that I can make a few thousand if a pick goes well, or lose likewise if it doesn't.  In any event, that account is such a small part of my holdings that good or bad timing won't make a huge impact either way.

More of a defense mechanism for me....park stuff off to the side.  Won't make much, won't lose much.  We'll see, but when Icahn bailed last week that was one sign I didn't like.

keefe

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2015, 10:55:43 PM »
 I think 'crash' implies a total meltdown 

What the f#ck did I do to you, tower??


Death on call

ChicosBailBonds

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manny31

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2015, 09:18:16 AM »
Off the lows as of now. Greece is screwed because they are Greek and don't pay taxes, corruption is comedic in nature and ultimately will stay screwed unless they leave the Euro. One things that strikes me is people's aversion to being in all or mostly cash. Seems there are many issues out there that would suggest that there is much more risk to the downside than there is potential reward given a long equity position, how about a little capital preservation.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2015, 11:20:51 AM »
One things that strikes me is people's aversion to being in all or mostly cash. Seems there are many issues out there that would suggest that there is much more risk to the downside than there is potential reward given a long equity position, how about a little capital preservation.

The one way to be absolutely certain of losing money is by being totally or mostly in cash.  Even the best secure cash accounts won't pay enough to keep up with inflation.

tower912

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2015, 11:51:05 AM »
What the f#ck did I do to you, tower??

Well played.   I didn't even think of that.    And you have done nothing but entertain me, amuse me, and given me a new perspective.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2015, 01:02:10 PM »
As of right now, the Dow is down about 240.  That's the worst since...March 25 of this year, when it fell 292 points.  And it took all of a few weeks for the markets to rebound and hit new all-time highs.  Maybe today's drop will end at more than 292, maybe not.  Maybe this will last a little longer than last time, maybe not.  But we'll be seeing new highs before long, because there is nowhere better to put money right now.

So much for a stock market "crash" today.  This isn't even anywhere close to a "correction."

Coleman

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2015, 01:12:07 PM »
As of right now, the Dow is down about 240.  That's the worst since...March 25 of this year, when it fell 292 points.  And it took all of a few weeks for the markets to rebound and hit new all-time highs.  Maybe today's drop will end at more than 292, maybe not.  Maybe this will last a little longer than last time, maybe not.  But we'll be seeing new highs before long, because there is nowhere better to put money right now.

So much for a stock market "crash" today.  This isn't even anywhere close to a "correction."

Yup. Not a meltdown or a crash, but still a nice little buying opportunity. I'll take a 1.5% discount.

I'm also in the "buy and hold" dollar cost averaging camp. Not going to sell for decades...so I love days like today.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2015, 03:40:43 PM »
Discount is up to 2%.  Hope it stays down for at least a few days so I get a good deal on my next 403(b) contribution. 

Coleman

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Re: Will the stock market crash Monday (June 29)?
« Reply #24 on: June 29, 2015, 03:43:41 PM »
Discount is up to 2%.  Hope it stays down for at least a few days so I get a good deal on my next 403(b) contribution.  

yeah my 401k contribution comes this Friday.

It always seems like I am a few days behind the big discount days, 401k-wise. Market will rebound tomorrow and Wednesday  >:(

But I still throw a C Note into my Roth IRA on days like today.