Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?

[MattyWarrior]

You have to throw it all in and keep doing it, I've done it for 35 years and am way better off even with the hits
I've taken. The market reacts instantly these days to anything that happens in the world,but just as fast it digests it. Institutional high end mutual funds with marginal risk?

[4everwarriors]

Crean sucks

[GooooMarquette]

You have to throw it all in and keep doing it, I've done it for 35 years and am way better off even with the hits
I've taken. The market reacts instantly these days to anything that happens in the world,but just as fast it digests it. Institutional high end mutual funds with marginal risk?

Yep.  Invest.  Hold.  Adjust based only on years to retirement.  If you do that, you don't have to worry about sudden drops.

[Jay Bee]

Nice day for those not holding shorts today.

The concept of "just hold and then the sudden drops don't matter" has always been odd to me.

If* you do well, you can avoid getting hurt when the market goes down and in fact do very well.

It's giving in.

[GooooMarquette]

The concept of "just hold and then the sudden drops don't matter" has always been odd to me.

If* you do well, you can avoid getting hurt when the market goes down and in fact do very well.

I avoid getting hurt when the market goes down by not selling, and just waiting for it to go back up.  And it always does.  So the drops really don't matter in the big picture.

[Jay Bee]

I avoid getting hurt when the market goes down by not selling, and just waiting for it to go back up.  And it always does.  So the drops really don't matter in the big picture.

I find this view to be nonsensical and dumb.

You do get hurt by not selling before your holdings go down. To suggest otherwise is illogical.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I find this view to be nonsensical and dumb.

You do get hurt by not selling before your holdings go down. To suggest otherwise is illogical.

Manage your stop losses, people. There is a lot of money to be made in an up and down market.

[MU82]

I find this view to be nonsensical and dumb.

You do get hurt by not selling before your holdings go down. To suggest otherwise is illogical.

Please let the rest of us know the day before the market will drop big-time and then let the rest of us know the day before the market will rise big-time.

You must be freakin' rich, being always able to predict the future like that.

Or maybe you're Marty McFly!

[GooooMarquette]

I find this view to be nonsensical and dumb.

You do get hurt by not selling before your holdings go down. To suggest otherwise is illogical.

To beat the market consistently, you need to know when to buy...then when to sell...then when to buy...then when to sell...then when to buy...etc., etc.

If you do have such consistently perfect timing, your net worth ought to be somewhere north of $1 trillion.  If not, you aren't putting your gift to very good use.

[Coleman]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-and-hold-wins-again-2013-07-19

http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2014/01/07/peter-lynch-why-buy-and-hold-investing-beats-market-timing/

[Tugg Speedman]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-and-hold-wins-again-2013-07-19

http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2014/01/07/peter-lynch-why-buy-and-hold-investing-beats-market-timing/

Buying and Holding is a market timing decision ... you are always in.

[GooooMarquette]

Buying and Holding is a market timing decision ... you are always in.

Actually, no.  The timing isn't based on the market.  The buy is based on when you have money (or when your company plan makes the contributions), and the sell is based on when you need the money...regardless of what the market may be doing.  As an example, my "buys" occur every two weeks on my pay days, totally irrespective of whether the market is up or down.

"Market timing" implies trying to predict fluctuations in the market.  "Buy and hold" acknowledges that that isn't beneficial over the long term.

[Jay Bee]

Actually, no.  The timing isn't based on the market.  The buy is based on when you have money (or when your company plan makes the contributions), and the sell is based on when you need the money...regardless of what the market may be doing.  As an example, my "buys" occur every two weeks on my pay days, totally irrespective of whether the market is up or down.

lol

[brandx]

Nice day for those not holding shorts today.

The concept of "just hold and then the sudden drops don't matter" has always been odd to me.

If* you do well, you can avoid getting hurt when the market goes down and in fact do very well.

It's giving in.

Most people don't have the time or, in my case, the inclination, to study the market. I'm very satisfied with the way the pros have done it for me for the last 30 years.

[GooooMarquette]

lol

Ouch.

[Jay Bee]

Most people don't have the time or, in my case, the inclination, to study the market. I'm very satisfied with the way the pros have done it for me for the last 30 years.

To be clear, I think that's a fine path you've taken. My issue is language that someone else had: "I avoid getting hurt when the market goes down by not selling, and just waiting for it to go back up.  And it always does.  So the drops really don't matter in the big picture."

Buying AGIO at $100 on the ignorance-driven drop a month ago isn't for everyone. But it was for me - holla.  $$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Tugg Speedman]

If you are still awake (and not at the 0ne-direction concert at Soldier's Field tonight) ...

Markets are crashing ... again

As of 10:30PM CT

•   Shanghai Composite (China) is down 8.3% (and below the July bottom to new lows)
•   The DJIA futures are down 450 points, almost equal to Friday's plunge
•   S&P futures are down 52 points, equal to Friday's plunge
•   10-year at 1.97%, down 6 bps
•   30-year at 2.68%, down 5 bps
•   2-year at -.56%, down 5 bps
•   WTI crude oil at $39.31, down $1.14
•   Euro is at 1.1497, up .0099

My sense is Monday is going to be a huge move.  The issue is which direction?  It could be either a huge up or a massive decline. 

I fear it will be a massive decline and in 24 hours everyone is going to a lot poorer and very concerned. 

I hope I'm wrong.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'm buying tomorrow. 

[Tugg Speedman]

I'm buying tomorrow.

You going to be significantly poorer (as will I and everyone else).

This is worldwide


1)  BN  22:30 *JAPAN'S TOPIX INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 5%, MOST SINCE FEB. 2013
2)*TREASURIES 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 2% FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL   BFW   21:25   
3)*TAIWAN'S TAIEX INDEX FALLS 7.2% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE 1990       BFW   21:22   
4)*SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TUMBLES 7.8% TO ERASE 2015 ADVANCE       BFW   21:08   
5)*BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX SLIDES TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1999       BFW   21:02   
6)*BRENT CRUDE DROPS BELOW $45/BBL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 2009   BFW   20:38   
7)*SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS MORE THAN 8.4%    BFW 20:36   
8)*SAUDI ARABIA'S TADAWUL STOCK INDEX ENTERS BEAR MARKET    BN   07:30   
9) *SAUDI ARABIA STOCKS DROP 5% AT OPEN       BN   03:00   

[Jay Bee]

Short on ATVI... c'mon, big drop, big drop!

[ChicosBailBonds]

You going to be significantly poorer (as will I and everyone else).

This is worldwide


1)  BN  22:30 *JAPAN'S TOPIX INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 5%, MOST SINCE FEB. 2013
2)*TREASURIES 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 2% FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL   BFW   21:25   
3)*TAIWAN'S TAIEX INDEX FALLS 7.2% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE 1990       BFW   21:22   
4)*SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TUMBLES 7.8% TO ERASE 2015 ADVANCE       BFW   21:08   
5)*BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX SLIDES TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1999       BFW   21:02   
6)*BRENT CRUDE DROPS BELOW $45/BBL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 2009   BFW   20:38   
7)*SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS MORE THAN 8.4%    BFW 20:36   
8)*SAUDI ARABIA'S TADAWUL STOCK INDEX ENTERS BEAR MARKET    BN   07:30   
9) *SAUDI ARABIA STOCKS DROP 5% AT OPEN       BN   03:00

Still buying tomorrow.  It all depends what you are buying and I'm not buying indexes tomorrow.  Put in three orders tonight for market open.  Longer play, I won't even look at it for a few months if not a year +.

[Jay Bee]

Still buying tomorrow.  It all depends what you are buying and I'm not buying indexes tomorrow.  Put in three orders tonight for market open.  Longer play, I won't even look at it for a few months if not a year +.

Going to share any of them?

[chapman]

Short on ATVI... c'mon, big drop, big drop!

I'm addicted to that Hearthstone game.  But I don't spend any money on it so I'm just a cost to them, so good call.

[4everwarriors]

Any y'alls tidy whiteys still pristine, hey?

[mu03eng]

Just pushed all in when the DOW hit -713, this is summer volatility and we will see markets stabilize in the next couple of weeks.  Market is high but it isn't overpriced such that a correction is indicated.

Lemmings panic right now, which will create chaos and within chaos there is profit and opportunity.