Google Self-driving car

[jesmu84]

This is so awesome. I really am looking forward to a world where this is the norm. Plus the HUGE effect it will have on literally every business. Heck, you think if a computer was programmed to run that Amtrak train in Philly, it would have been doing 100mph where it shouldn't have been?

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/uCezICQNgJU" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/uCezICQNgJU</a>

[HouWarrior]

I hope this takes over in NASCAR, as I prefer to root for the brand names on the cars. My corporate overlords are much more important to me than some human driver behind the wheel.

[Tugg Speedman]

This is so awesome. I really am looking forward to a world where this is the norm. Plus the HUGE effect it will have on literally every business. Heck, you think if a computer was programmed to run that Amtrak train in Philly, it would have been doing 100mph where it shouldn't have been?

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/uCezICQNgJU" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/uCezICQNgJU</a>

You are correct, this will have a bigger impact on society than the personal computer.

Did you also see that the self-driving semi is going to hit the road this month.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Google....too much power.

I like driving, I don't want anyone driving for me.


Why not just cut off everyone's balls.

[Tugg Speedman]

Google....too much power.

I like driving, I don't want anyone driving for me.


Why not just cut off everyone's balls.

100 years ago ....

Henry Ford ... Too much power

I like riding my horse, I don't want the motor cars on the road.

Why not cut off everyone's balls.

[Tugg Speedman]

I posted this in the airplane thread, meant to put it here ...


http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/
 

Most people—experts included—seem to think that the transition to driverless vehicles will come slowly over the coming few decades, and that large hurdles exist for widespread adoption. I believe that this is significant underestimation.

Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced. They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

The transition is already beginning to happen. Elon Musk, Tesla Motor’s CEO, says that their 2015 models will be able to self-drive 90% of the time. And major automakers aren’t far behind—according to Bloomberg News, GM’s 2017 Cadillac is planned to feature “technology that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour or in stop-and-go congested traffic.”

Both Google and Tesla predict that fully-autonomous cars—what Musk describes as “true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep, and wake up at your destination”—will be available to the public by 2020.


How it will unfold

Industry experts think that consumers will be slow to purchase autonomous cars—while this may be true, it is a mistake to assume that this will impede the transition.
Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the year, which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year. Next to a house, an automobile is the second-most expensive asset that most people will ever buy—it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership.

It is now more economical to use a ride-sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year. And current research confirms that we would be eager to use autonomous cars if they were available. A full 60% of US adults surveyed stated that they would ride in an autonomous car, and nearly 32% said they would not continue to drive once an autonomous car was available instead. But no one is more excited than Uber—CEO Travis Kalanick recently stated that Uber will eventually replace all of its drivers with self-driving cars.

A January 2013 Columbia University study once suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City, and that passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile. Such convenience and low cost would make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis—the “transportation cloud”—will quickly become the dominant form of transportation.
Fallout

Disruptive innovation does not take kindly to entrenched competitors—like Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, and Polaroid, it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales. I think that most will be bankrupt by 2030, while startup automakers like Tesla will thrive on a smaller number of fleet sales to operators like Uber by offering standardized models with fewer options.

Ancillary industries such as the $198 billion automobile insurance market, $98 billion automotive finance market, $100 billion parking industry, and the $300 billion automotive aftermarket will collapse as demand for their services evaporates. We will see the obsolescence of rental car companies, public transportation systems, and, good riddance, parking, and speeding tickets.

But we will see the transformation of far more than just consumer transportation: self-driving semis, buses, earth movers, and delivery trucks could obviate the need for professional drivers and the support industries that surround them.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 915,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.

But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income—and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.
A view of the future

Morgan Stanley estimates that a 90% reduction in crashes would save nearly 30,000 lives and prevent 2.12 million injuries annually. Driverless cars do not need to park—vehicles cruising the street looking for parking spots account for an astounding 30% of city traffic, not to mention that eliminating curbside parking adds two extra lanes of capacity to many city streets. Traffic will become nonexistent, saving each US commuter 38 hours every year—nearly a full work week. As parking lots and garages, car dealerships, and bus stations become obsolete, tens of millions of square feet of available prime real estate will spur explosive metropolitan development.

The environmental impact of autonomous cars has the potential to reverse the trend of global warming and drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. As most autonomous cars are likely to be electric, we would eliminate most of the 134 billion gallons of gasoline used each year in the US alone. And while recycling 242 million vehicles will certainly require substantial resources, the surplus of raw materials will decrease the need for mining.

But perhaps most exciting for me are the coming inventions, discoveries, and creation of entire new industries that we cannot yet imagine.
It is exciting to be alive, isn’t it?

This post originally appeared at The Personal Blog of Zack Kanter. Follow Zack on Twitter at @ZackKanter. We welcome your comments at ideas@qz.com.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Within 10 years....I'll take that bet.  How much?

[Tugg Speedman]

Within 10 years....I'll take that bet.  How much?

You self-driving car was approved for road use last week.  You just lost.

I'll PM you next time I'm in southern CA and you can buy me lunch.

[ChicosBailBonds]

100 years ago ....

Henry Ford ... Too much power

I like riding my horse, I don't want the motor cars on the road.

Why not cut off everyone's balls.

Horrible analogy....going from riding a horse to driving a car....you're still in control.   No need to get your balls cut off and emasculated like this current nonsense.  Do you own a Prius by chance?

[ChicosBailBonds]

You self-driving car was approved for road use last week.  You just lost.

I'll PM you next time I'm in southern CA and you can buy me lunch.

 

Uhm, it says commonplace by 2025 and near monopoly by 2030.  I owe you nothing, but I'm glad to take the bet so that in 2025 we can see just how many cars are autonomous, let alone 5 years later being near a monopoly.   

[Tugg Speedman]

Horrible analogy....going from riding a horse to driving a car....you're still in control.   No need to get your balls cut off and emasculated like this current nonsense.  Do you own a Prius by chance?

So you don't trust trust a computer to drive the car. 

Remember what I said about being in the corner at sunrise?

[ChicosBailBonds]

So you don't trust trust a computer to drive the car. 

Remember what I said about being in the corner at sunrise?

Not a matter if I trust it, I don't want it to do it for me.  I prefer to do it myself.  I like my balls and don't wish to have someone else or something else doing it for me.  Has nothing to do with the trust of whether another entity can do it.

You continue to equate on people that they don't like technology or fear it, but you are dead wrong.  I'm all for it, but that doesn't mean I want to use it.  If you want to be driven around by an autonomous car, knock your socks off.  I don't care to.  Nor are they foolproof, as some want to make them out to be.  Are they safer than people driving them?  Probably.  Are they safer planes than pilots...we'll see.  Nothing is full proof, is it worth the expense?  We'll see. 

I'll take that 10 year bet in a heartbeat.

[martyconlonontherun]

Not a matter if I trust it, I don't want it to do it for me.  I prefer to do it myself.  I like my balls and don't wish to have someone else or something else doing it for me.  Has nothing to do with the trust of whether another entity can do it.

You continue to equate on people that they don't like technology or fear it, but you are dead wrong.  I'm all for it, but that doesn't mean I want to use it.  If you want to be driven around by an autonomous car, knock your socks off.  I don't care to.  Nor are they foolproof, as some want to make them out to be.  Are they safer than people driving them?  Probably.  Are they safer planes than pilots...we'll see.  Nothing is full proof, is it worth the expense?  We'll see. 

I'll take that 10 year bet in a heartbeat.

I guess I don't understand what makes you a man by driving a car? If it's a waste of time, money and resources. I don't see how it's a good idea to feign masculinity when a rational person sees more productive options or more intelligent options. I guess you can say you enjoy driving but do you enjoy driving every day?

Remember when it was a man to keep playing after a concussion? Times change and keeping your balls is a horrible way to look at life.

[Tugg Speedman]

Not a matter if I trust it, I don't want it to do it for me.  I prefer to do it myself.  I like my balls and don't wish to have someone else or something else doing it for me.  Has nothing to do with the trust of whether another entity can do it.

You continue to equate on people that they don't like technology or fear it, but you are dead wrong.  I'm all for it, but that doesn't mean I want to use it.  If you want to be driven around by an autonomous car, knock your socks off.  I don't care to.  Nor are they foolproof, as some want to make them out to be.  Are they safer than people driving them?  Probably.  Are they safer planes than pilots...we'll see.  Nothing is full proof, is it worth the expense?  We'll see. 

I'll take that 10 year bet in a heartbeat.

This sounds selfish and irresponsible.  If we get to the point where driverless cars are safer, cheaper and more efficient, you are going to demand you get to risk others saftey, time and expense by allowing you drive yourself anyway.  And this because, sitting in the back (if a driverless car even has a back) taking a nap, watching TV, talking, read or staring out the window is somehow an affront to your Masculinity?

Practical point.  If/when driverless cars are safer, cheaper and more efficient the way they are getting humans off the road is expense.  Auto companies will start making less driver cars and they will be more expensive.  Insurance rates for drivers will skyrocket making it unaffordable.

Doesn't matter what you think, no one will be able to afford it.

[#UnleashSean]

This sounds selfish and irresponsible.  If we get to the point where driverless cars are safer, cheaper and more efficient, you are going to demand you get to risk others saftey, time and expense by allowing you drive yourself anyway.  And this because, sitting in the back (if a driverless car even has a back) taking a nap, watching TV, talking, read or staring out the window is somehow an affront to your Masculinity?

Practical point.  If/when driverless cars are safer, cheaper and more efficient the way they are getting humans off the road is expense.  Auto companies will start making less driver cars and they will be more expensive.  Insurance rates for drivers will skyrocket making it unaffordable.

Doesn't matter what you think, no one will be able to afford it.

Laws will slowly be passed that will eradicate human driving*

[ChicosBailBonds]

This sounds selfish and irresponsible.  If we get to the point where driverless cars are safer, cheaper and more efficient, you are going to demand you get to risk others saftey, time and expense by allowing you drive yourself anyway.  And this because, sitting in the back (if a driverless car even has a back) taking a nap, watching TV, talking, read or staring out the window is somehow an affront to your Masculinity?

Practical point.  If/when driverless cars are safer, cheaper and more efficient the way they are getting humans off the road is expense.  Auto companies will start making less driver cars and they will be more expensive.  Insurance rates for drivers will skyrocket making it unaffordable.

Doesn't matter what you think, no one will be able to afford it.

Not going to happen in my lifetime so I'm not going to sweat it.  Just as I can go up in a piper cub tomorrow via general aviation as long as I'm licensed, I'll still be able to drive.

I like my freedom and part of my freedom is to do this stuff on my own, on my time, with my hands on the controls.  Again, if you want to be Miss Daisy, knock your socks off.  Not for me.  No different than someone cutting my grass...I do it myself.  Fixing my truck...I do it myself.  I enjoy it, it's a skill like anything else.  The idea of losing that skill....might as well cut my balls off.  No thanks.

[mu_hilltopper]

 

Uhm, it says commonplace by 2025 and near monopoly by 2030.  I owe you nothing, but I'm glad to take the bet so that in 2025 we can see just how many cars are autonomous, let alone 5 years later being near a monopoly.   

Chicos will win this bet by a decade or more, easy.   

Look at hybrid cars as an example of automotive change.  The first was released in 1999.  While the Prius is a huge success, you know what percentage of the market electric/hybrid vehicles are 15 years later?  A whopping 2.7% .. and its floated up and down from 2.5 to 3.2% over the past 8 years .. indicating it's not anywhere near doubling any time soon.

Or nav systems in cars.  Every car should have this $100 piece of tech, but since car manufacturers bundle it into a $2-3-4k package .. only a fraction of new cars have them, with most folks opting to use their smart phone.

The same will happen to self-driving cars.  The tech will be pretty good in a decade, but mainstream manufacturers will treat it as an expensive optional feature.   Sure, GoogleCar and Tesla will bake auto-drive into their base model cars .. but it'll be way more than 10-15 years before the Big 3 will do that, instead sucking as much profit out of it as possible.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Speaking of Nav stuff, I wrote a detailed complaint to Garmin from when we were in Lake Tahoe a few months ago.  How horrid their navigation options were from Tahoe to L.A. vs what my iPhone was saying.  We did a little test.

To Garmin's credit, they wrote back admitting a big glitch in their software maps up there.  Their chosen route would have made the difference in the driving by 1 hour and 53 minutes and more than 85 miles added in length.  That is some seriously wrong screw up for a GPS system in 2015. 

[#UnleashSean]

Speaking of Nav stuff, I wrote a detailed complaint to Garmin from when we were in Lake Tahoe a few months ago.  How horrid their navigation options were from Tahoe to L.A. vs what my iPhone was saying.  We did a little test.

To Garmin's credit, they wrote back admitting a big glitch in their software maps up there.  Their chosen route would have made the difference in the driving by 1 hour and 53 minutes and more than 85 miles added in length.  That is some seriously wrong screw up for a GPS system in 2015. 

Damn how old are you? You still have a gps that isn't just your phone? You realize the $50-300 device is way worse then a phone connected to google maps right?

[StillAWarrior]

Damn how old are you? You still have a gps that isn't just your phone? You realize the $50-300 device is way worse then a phone connected to google maps right?

I'm not saying that this is Chicos' issue, but when I got my last car (sans nav since, as Hilltopper mentioned, it was part of a $3000 package), I also went out and bought a $75 Garmin.  There are areas where I drive where there is no cellular service.  If relying on my telephone, I'd be screwed.  I don't have the same problem with the Garmin.

[Benny B]

Google....too much power.

I like driving, I don't want anyone driving for me.


Why not just cut off everyone's balls.

Ummmm... shot in the dark here.... because half the drivers out there don't have balls, perhaps?  Why should women not have to bear any pain here?  Especially since everyone in California knows that women drivers are the absolute worst.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I'm not saying that this is Chicos' issue, but when I got my last car (sans nav since, as Hilltopper mentioned, it was part of a $3000 package), I also went out and bought a $75 Garmin.  There are areas where I drive where there is no cellular service.  If relying on my telephone, I'd be screwed.  I don't have the same problem with the Garmin.

Your mobile phone has GPS and connects the same way the Garmin.  It doesn't connect via the cell network.  On my phone, AT&T gives me a target/dot next to the Bars indicating connection to the GPS. 

[CTWarrior]

I would guess that a lot of (most?) people would hang on to the cars they own until they die out before switching to the new paradigm, so it may take a little longer than these predictions.  But no doubt it is coming.  I'm convinced that it will become entrenched with the generation that comes of age without needing to learn to drive, so maybe more like 2040.

[StillAWarrior]

Your mobile phone has GPS and connects the same way the Garmin.  It doesn't connect via the cell network.  On my phone, AT&T gives me a target/dot next to the Bars indicating connection to the GPS. 

OK, maybe I'm learning something here.  The GPS is still connected and knows where you are, but don't the maps download via cellular connection?  I know you can purchase Apps for that, but I never did.

[tower912]

I actually agree with Chicos on this one.   I will be one of the last holdouts for driving myself.   I will go absolutely insane if I am sitting in a car going the exact same speed as all of the other cars.  The idea of a journey being the same as an amusement park ride where all of the cars stay the exact same distance apart is nauseating.    I enjoy the occasional random detour down the road less traveled.   The one with curves and hills.   Or scenic vistas.    Getting in a car, punching in a destination,  and then just sitting back and napping or surfing the net has absolutely no appeal.      I accept that it may happen in my lifetime, but I cannot imagine celebrating it.