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Author Topic: Google Self-driving car  (Read 34963 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #125 on: July 24, 2015, 01:14:39 PM »
And a simple software glitch or smart hacker could turn driverless cars into even more efficient killing machines.

Isn't technology great?

How many humans killed someone on the road in the time you took to write this fantasy?

GooooMarquette

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #126 on: July 24, 2015, 01:24:42 PM »
How many humans killed someone on the road in the time you took to write this fantasy?

I have $10,000 that says your fantasy of driverless cars becoming the majority of vehicles on the road within 5 years doesn't happen.

Willing to put your money where your mouth is?

GOO

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #127 on: July 24, 2015, 01:28:54 PM »

So yes in 10 years things will be dramatically different.


You seem to be softening on your time frame.  I'd call it becoming more realistic.  It will be noticeable in 10 years, but it will still be a long way from eliminating or even getting to 25% of cars on the road being self driving. 
I for one can' wait and completely believe this is needed to make the roads safer.  Most dangerous thing most of us do in life is get in a car.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #128 on: July 24, 2015, 01:30:01 PM »

You seem to be softening on your time frame.  I'd call it becoming more realistic.  It will be noticeable in 10 years, but it will still be a long way from eliminating or even getting to 25% of cars on the road being self driving. 
I for one can' wait and completely believe this is needed to make the roads safer.  Most dangerous thing most of us do in life is get in a car.


I wonder if his backpedaling is manual or computer-driven.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #129 on: July 24, 2015, 02:01:26 PM »
If you want to make the bet for 10 years, I'm still in.  Hello?

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #130 on: July 24, 2015, 02:08:43 PM »
If you want to make the bet for 10 years, I'm still in.  Hello?

Yes,

Here is my timeline.  What are you taking the otherside of?

Here is my timeline (from page 4) ....

5 years tens of thousands of driverless cars are on the road.

7 years approaching a million driverless cars. 

At this point we have years and hundreds of million of miles of real data.  The car shows it is more efficient, cheaper and far more safer.  Dense Urban areas like central London, downtown Manhattan , San Fran and the loop river north area of Chicago see a movement to ban drivers.  They are seen as slow inefficient, expensive and dangerous.

Once this happens, the driver car takes on a different view.  It is a giant waste of money.  Other than the collector cars, the 3,000 pound hunk of metal in your garage is viewed as ultimately having a value of zero.  New car sales plummet because no one wants to buy a car that is going to have no value in a few years.  Human drivers are started to be looked upon like smokers.

So yes in 10 years their will still be hundreds of millions of driver cars on the road.  But like the Taxi company today, they will be seen as a dead industry with no long-term value and we are all demanding the new technology.

Maybe I should explain myself regarding taxis ... the game is over, car-sharing companies like Uber have won.  Sure traditional taxis will be around many more years (like horse drawn wagons existed on city streets until the 1940s) but we are watching the final convulsions of an industry that is about to expire.  We are not going back the other way to traditional taxis.  CA ruling they are employees is going to accelerate this process.  Uber is moving as fast as humanly possible to fire every driver and get driverless on the road.  CA ruling is going to make this happen faster.

Regarding the major auto makers.  They all go bankrupt every generation or so now.  GM and Chrysler being the last.  The rest are owned by the government and are bloated an inefficient.  The Telsa electric car and non-dealer selling model is case in point that they "don't really get it" and are structured to sell something that will no longer be demanded.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #131 on: July 24, 2015, 02:20:00 PM »
Yes,

Here is my timeline.  What are you taking the otherside of?

Here is my timeline (from page 4) ....

5 years tens of thousands of driverless cars are on the road.

7 years approaching a million driverless cars. 

At this point we have years and hundreds of million of miles of real data.  The car shows it is more efficient, cheaper and far more safer.  Dense Urban areas like central London, downtown Manhattan , San Fran and the loop river north area of Chicago see a movement to ban drivers.  They are seen as slow inefficient, expensive and dangerous.

Once this happens, the driver car takes on a different view.  It is a giant waste of money.  Other than the collector cars, the 3,000 pound hunk of metal in your garage is viewed as ultimately having a value of zero.  New car sales plummet because no one wants to buy a car that is going to have no value in a few years.  Human drivers are started to be looked upon like smokers.

So yes in 10 years their will still be hundreds of millions of driver cars on the road.  But like the Taxi company today, they will be seen as a dead industry with no long-term value and we are all demanding the new technology.

Maybe I should explain myself regarding taxis ... the game is over, car-sharing companies like Uber have won.  Sure traditional taxis will be around many more years (like horse drawn wagons existed on city streets until the 1940s) but we are watching the final convulsions of an industry that is about to expire.  We are not going back the other way to traditional taxis.  CA ruling they are employees is going to accelerate this process.  Uber is moving as fast as humanly possible to fire every driver and get driverless on the road.  CA ruling is going to make this happen faster.

Regarding the major auto makers.  They all go bankrupt every generation or so now.  GM and Chrysler being the last.  The rest are owned by the government and are bloated an inefficient.  The Telsa electric car and non-dealer selling model is case in point that they "don't really get it" and are structured to sell something that will no longer be demanded.


Your criteria are hopelessly vague.  Mine were clear and absolute.  Only an idiot would bet on vague....

Glad we agree I don't have to worry about my GTI anytime soon.

4everwarriors

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #132 on: July 24, 2015, 02:21:22 PM »
I get lethargic on a train at ground level.  I want my mind stimulated.

I avoid the 405 like the plague, rarely if ever on it.  Point is, on the weekends, at night, early in the morning, I do want that wind in my hair.



Then try viewin' YouPorn, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #133 on: July 24, 2015, 09:28:43 PM »
Yes,

Here is my timeline.  What are you taking the otherside of?

Here is my timeline (from page 4) ....

5 years tens of thousands of driverless cars are on the road.

7 years approaching a million driverless cars. 

At this point we have years and hundreds of million of miles of real data.  The car shows it is more efficient, cheaper and far more safer.  Dense Urban areas like central London, downtown Manhattan , San Fran and the loop river north area of Chicago see a movement to ban drivers.  They are seen as slow inefficient, expensive and dangerous.

Once this happens, the driver car takes on a different view.  It is a giant waste of money.  Other than the collector cars, the 3,000 pound hunk of metal in your garage is viewed as ultimately having a value of zero.  New car sales plummet because no one wants to buy a car that is going to have no value in a few years.  Human drivers are started to be looked upon like smokers.

So yes in 10 years their will still be hundreds of millions of driver cars on the road.  But like the Taxi company today, they will be seen as a dead industry with no long-term value and we are all demanding the new technology.

Maybe I should explain myself regarding taxis ... the game is over, car-sharing companies like Uber have won.  Sure traditional taxis will be around many more years (like horse drawn wagons existed on city streets until the 1940s) but we are watching the final convulsions of an industry that is about to expire.  We are not going back the other way to traditional taxis.  CA ruling they are employees is going to accelerate this process.  Uber is moving as fast as humanly possible to fire every driver and get driverless on the road.  CA ruling is going to make this happen faster.

Regarding the major auto makers.  They all go bankrupt every generation or so now.  GM and Chrysler being the last.  The rest are owned by the government and are bloated an inefficient.  The Telsa electric car and non-dealer selling model is case in point that they "don't really get it" and are structured to sell something that will no longer be demanded.


Define millions and I'm in.  Charity bet. 

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #134 on: July 29, 2015, 09:44:29 PM »
Yes,

Here is my timeline.  What are you taking the otherside of?

Here is my timeline (from page 4) ....

5 years tens of thousands of driverless cars are on the road.

7 years approaching a million driverless cars. 

At this point we have years and hundreds of million of miles of real data.  The car shows it is more efficient, cheaper and far more safer.  Dense Urban areas like central London, downtown Manhattan , San Fran and the loop river north area of Chicago see a movement to ban drivers.  They are seen as slow inefficient, expensive and dangerous.

Once this happens, the driver car takes on a different view.  It is a giant waste of money.  Other than the collector cars, the 3,000 pound hunk of metal in your garage is viewed as ultimately having a value of zero.  New car sales plummet because no one wants to buy a car that is going to have no value in a few years.  Human drivers are started to be looked upon like smokers.

So yes in 10 years their will still be hundreds of millions of driver cars on the road.  But like the Taxi company today, they will be seen as a dead industry with no long-term value and we are all demanding the new technology.

Maybe I should explain myself regarding taxis ... the game is over, car-sharing companies like Uber have won.  Sure traditional taxis will be around many more years (like horse drawn wagons existed on city streets until the 1940s) but we are watching the final convulsions of an industry that is about to expire.  We are not going back the other way to traditional taxis.  CA ruling they are employees is going to accelerate this process.  Uber is moving as fast as humanly possible to fire every driver and get driverless on the road.  CA ruling is going to make this happen faster.

Regarding the major auto makers.  They all go bankrupt every generation or so now.  GM and Chrysler being the last.  The rest are owned by the government and are bloated an inefficient.  The Telsa electric car and non-dealer selling model is case in point that they "don't really get it" and are structured to sell something that will no longer be demanded.


http://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5

You might find this interesting.  They believe a true driverless car won't even be ready until 2019.  Now, it all comes down to definitions of driverless and features that are self driving.

I believe they correctly point out the pitfalls of the regulations, insurance, liabilities, etc.

At any rate, I thought you might enjoy their projections that came out today.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #135 on: July 29, 2015, 09:53:44 PM »
Thanks, I had not seen this


ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #136 on: July 29, 2015, 09:58:41 PM »
Thanks, I had not seen this



Note the title, however...."self driving FEATURES", this is far different than fully autonomous cars which as many of us have argued and I think the article confirms, is a long way off.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #137 on: July 29, 2015, 10:22:06 PM »
Tesla has introduced many new ideas to the "hopelessly behind in thinking" auto industry.  In addition to the electric car, they also have a direct selling model (no dealer network) and, most important for this conversation, is the upgradable car.   Telsa cars are like your computer, you have an LTE account on your car and they are constantly sending you upgrades, improvements, patches and so on.

Current legacy (stubbornly bureaucratic) car makers sell you a car that is forever frozen in time.  You cannot upgrade, change any features and even getting a new version of the map can be hard. 

(Car makers have to end their stupid NAV systems.  Just put Google maps and an LTE connection in all their cars.  They will never have a NAV system as good as Google Maps ... they need to stop trying.  But I digress.)

Every car maker pays a heavy price for this as they have to spend millions in recalls,  especially the current one from Jeep this week.  The car can be hacked through the entertainment system.  Jeep will spend tens of millions having everyone bring their car so they can plug a USB stick into it to run a software update.  Telsa has someone push a keyboard button at HQ to accomplish the same thing for all cars in one afternoon.

The self-autonomous cars will be more upgradable.  So many of those cars will start off as "semi" and though upgrade, enhancements and patches that same car will evolve over time into something closer to "fully."

This will make the definition of "semi" and "fully" even harder to determine.

------------

Windows 10 was released today.  They finally get it! (All it took was their UWM CEO to bring them into the modern age!)  It is no longer considered an operating system.  It is consider a "service" that they constantly refine, upgrade and fix.  You subscribe to that service (which, in the case of Windows 10, is currently free).  Most software is now sold this way.  You don't by version x of something.  You subscribe to the service and they constantly tinker and improve it. 

The car will (finally!) be next to get this kind of thinking/business model.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2015, 10:34:18 PM by Heisenberg »

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #138 on: July 29, 2015, 11:13:00 PM »
AT&T has LTE agreements with GM, Audi, Honda, etc in every day cars today.  I know....I'm working on it.   ;)

GOO

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #139 on: July 30, 2015, 09:45:57 AM »
Thanks, I had not seen this



You do realize that the chart you posted proves the point I've tried to make and many others in this thread.  This won't happen as fast as you originally claimed.  Most of us are all for it.  We want it to happen fast, but it simply won't happen fast.  It will first be for those that like tech and safety and have money to pay a little extra for it.  There are over 250M cars on the road now, the chart is a big increase for a category but a tiny percentage of what is on the road.

The point being this is all great stuff and when I get a new car in 5 years it WILL have self driving features.  It will be a safety and convenience priority for me.  But I also am lucky enough to be able to pay cash and paying 5K additional isn't a big deal.  But since the average car on the road is over 11 years old, the number of self driving cars on the road will be a very small percentage in 5 years.  Fully autonomous cars will be few and far between and very few in 5 years as a percentage of cars on the road. Maybe some cities that start to promote fully autonomous in lieu of taxies/buses, but that will still be mostly small scale trial stuff, if my guess. 

I think you've come back towards the middle on how fast this is going to happen.  For some it will happen fast.  But the 10 year old car I trade-in or sell when I get a new one isn't going to the junk yard.. it will be going to someone else who can't afford or doesn't buy new/newer cars. 

http://fortune.com/2015/07/29/cars-average-age/

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #140 on: June 13, 2021, 02:35:09 PM »
Yes,

Here is my timeline.  What are you taking the otherside of?

Here is my timeline (from page 4) ....

5 years tens of thousands of driverless cars are on the road.

7 years approaching a million driverless cars. 


Hmm .. don't think these predictions are coming up roses.

https://thenextweb.com/news/why-truly-driverless-cars-may-never-happen

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #141 on: June 13, 2021, 02:47:35 PM »
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #142 on: June 13, 2021, 03:57:53 PM »
Hmm .. don't think these predictions are coming up roses.

https://thenextweb.com/news/why-truly-driverless-cars-may-never-happen

Excellent use of zombie thread
TAMU

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tower912

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #143 on: June 13, 2021, 05:54:54 PM »
Mods with a grade A hoopaloop.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #144 on: June 14, 2021, 05:18:27 PM »
I don't remember a lot of threads .. but this one I did.

 

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