Kolek planning to go pro
thanks for all of this guys-one company i have been in boeing at $350/sh since last march. it got as high as $432 during this time, but has taken it's beating because of it's obvious past issues with the 737 max, but they've rolled out a 777-xxx that has orders up the ying yang. boeing is a $290/sh this morning. they fix the max and move forward uneventfully with both the max and the triple x, this is a $500/sh stock in a year or so. am i nuts?
I'm not quite that bullish. Boeing seems to keep tripping over themselves and aren't executing well. They have a lot of goodwill to rebuild over their 737MAX screwups. Couple that with possible echoes through airtravel industry due to COVID19, and, well, I'm just not quite as bullish as you are. I think it goes up from where it is now, how far is a different question.
I bought 6 QQQ put contracts expiring 3/6 at around 8:45 am this morning, the Dow at that point was down -150. As I was putting in a limit order to sell, the Fed announced the rate cut, and literally in a minute, I went from a small profit to down a lot. Didn't sell, hung on to my original limit order, and ended up hitting it around 10:30 am, made a good size profit. I checked this afternoon the contracts, had I held on a few more hours, could have sold for 2.5 x the amount. Crazy times, I've played options contracts, but for me personally have had as crazy of a roller coaster day as this for me.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny. Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.
Benny's Rule #1 For Options Investing: Don't ever look back after taking a profit if all you're going to do is kick yourself... those woulda-shoulda-coulda's can, and will, go the other way more often than not, especially with elevated theta.
Ice in your veins, dude.
I was sitting in my home office, and audibly said aloud "Holy F***" when the Fed rate happened (I didn't know it was happening in real time) as I was staring at my E-Trade app. I'm not trying to say "yayy me" or anything like that either, I was merely trying to say for me personally, it was the craziest roller coaster day I've seen with turning on a dime swings of hundreds of points. I don't claim to be some experienced or good trader, certainly taken my share of beatings as well.
The volatility has been unreal. I play a decent amount of options and usually keep the market on a monitor as my middays (once Asia/India goes to sleep) are usually quiet. The last 7 trading days have been unlike anything Ive ever seen. Normally ES (SPY/SPX) futures +/- 20 on a given night is a "whoa" moment. They are routinely going 50 pts down or up, and completely reversing overnight. There are MANY days where the SPY plays in a 1-2 pt range and today we had a 16pt swing from top to bottom. Hell, it bounced and fell 4 points multiple times in the last hour. Its both a daytraders dream and nightmare.I put on some SPX 3075 calls yesterday midday when I thought an afternoon pop would happen, as things fell apart I put in a limit sell for a 50% loss think MAYBE I get lucky and it fills on a random spike, and forgot about it as I watched other stuff. Oh it filled on that crazy rip and ended up I think 1500% up as it ran away from me, sadly. Nuts.But Benny is dead right. Nobody goes broke taking profits, especially in Options. For every time you sell for a 200% gain and it runs another 2-500% after, there are twice as many times as a nice profit flips to a complete loss on one random tape bomb in this absurdly headline driven market.My favorite prime example today, SPX started to work back up with about 15 min left in the day, closing on a decent note after bouncing off a support level at 3000...Google announces they are halting employee travel (which is not a big deal at all given the environment) and the bottom drops out and it drops 35 pts (a normally HUGE drop for a typical trading day) in 3 min. Its chaotic to say the least
WagsThe volatility has been crazy and playing some of the same options. Taking profits daily, but still long every night for the last eight days. Been nice making some dough on the way down but I want things to get back to normal. I am seeing numbers in my sleep.
Agreed. I’m ready for the market to not be so reactionary. Even if that means a few weeks of downward drift towards 2500 levels. We’ve been absurdly headline sensitive for most of the Trump presidency, but this is even more special circumstances
I agree with both what you say here and your past comments about the Corona virus. As of now, it seems like it will manifest itself similar to the flu.What I will ask is do you think there is any way in the near future for the market to stabilize when the response to the new virus is total chaos? Similar to China, our gov't will not tell us how many cases there are. We are advised to go to work even if we think we have the virus. There is zero leadership on what steps normal people can take to aid in the prevention of the virus. Can the markets overcome this? (I realize our markets are somewhat dependent on others around the world, but I am talking about what happens here).
There's a difference between "will not tell us" and "cannot tell us." And judging by the performance of my SPY doom-puts, the markets seem to be overcoming just fine.
While I freely admit that you know more about the markets than I do (hence, why I pay a financial advisor), I have no clue what you just said. In another vein, here's a good clue as to what the Wall Streeters think about us common folks:"Maybe we'd be better off if we gave [COVID-19] to everybody, and in a month it would be over because the mortality is going to be any different than the long-term picture but the difference is we're wreaking havoc on global economies," -- Rick SantelliApparently, people suffering and dying really annoys him. So, he'd like to see about 10,000,000 people die in the US (WHO puts fatality rate at just over 3%) so as not to be inconvenienced in his pursuit of an extra dollar.
Dow futures down 1000 points, oil down to $30 a barrel, lowest price in 30 years.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.
We are potentially on the cusp of $20 barrel oil and zero percent interest rates, in what feels like the blink of an eye.
Looks like we're headed toward a recession, yes?In hindsight, I wish we wouldn't have passed tax cuts that reduced available tax revenue. And then pushed the fed to drop rates to further prop up an already sinking economy. I don't think the fed has any bullets left in the chamber to help out here.Coronavirus certainly plays a role as well.