Creighton

[Dr. Blackheart]

From Bart Torvik:

Hi -- it is based on descriptions in the play by play data. So "layups" "tips" "dunks" (etc) are counted as rim attempts, and all other twos are counted as mid-range. Obviously this is far from an exact science, as it relies on scorekeeper descriptions and play-by-play fidelity ... but it's the best I can do, which is good enough for me.

Now mobility and biometric data would be better metrics but not a lot of mid and low major teams have that technology. So that description still relies on the scorekeeper. Is Oso's push shot a layup in the paint or a mid-range? Scorekeepers have said 41% of his two point shots have been "mid-range". 

[We R Final Four]

I think MU wins today. This is a statement game for the season and proving they can win without TK would be a statement. Have felt all season that experience and depth was the strength of the team and I think they show it today.

Will add, this is not a homer post. Shaka has built a culture and it will be tested without TK, but the culture is firmly established.

Man, I hope you are right Goose. Would love to see Shaka turn and give a victory yell at CU fans when the clock hits zero.
However, isn't this the actual definition of a homer post?
Potentially, replacing our AA PG with a sparingly used 3rd string freshman?
Vegas....CBB.....Creighton fans.....hell most scoopers think today favors CU.
I think the moneyline is up to +170.....you could win some $ today.

[Goose]

We R FF

I think TK is replaced by the culture, not one guy. Teams with true character can overcome amazing things. That said, my feeling is in regards to this game in particular. The odds are stacked against them and I think they rally. No predictions on TK-less team beyond today.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

I believe we have the guys who can step up to this challenge and will

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I think MU wins today. This is a statement game for the season and proving they can win without TK would be a statement. Have felt all season that experience and depth was the strength of the team and I think they show it today.

Will add, this is not a homer post. Shaka has built a culture and it will be tested without TK, but the culture is firmly established.

My gut is telling me the same, probably because it feels like we own Creighton on the court for some reason.
Ring-out-ahoya!

[Tyler COLEk]

I'm hopeful the defense clicked into another level these past few games. We've seen significant improvement all season long, but MU was downright imposing on Wednesday. Kolek's absence can be overcome if they pour into defense and hold Creighton under 75.

[tower912]

It is a top 15 opponent in their gym without MU's all American.  I would not be surprised to see a reprise of @UConn.

[Tyler COLEk]

It is a top 15 opponent in their gym without MU's all American.  I would not be surprised to see a reprise of @UConn.

It's a gut feeling, but I would be surprised if the result slipped away beyond a 10-15 point loss that balloons in the final 10 minutes. Marquette doesn't have much to lose today.

[MUEng92]

When it comes to playing Creighton, the everlasting PTSD of attending the first Creighton-MU Big East game in person in Omaha makes me full COLE.  I always expect CU to have five different players shoot 80% from three point range

[nyg]

It's a gut feeling, but I would be surprised if the result slipped away beyond a 10-15 point loss that balloons in the final 10 minutes. Marquette doesn't have much to lose today.

Two hours ago, you posted that Mu12fan should be in the "Cole" Hall of Fame......for basically saying the same thing.

[Tyler COLEk]

Two hours ago, you posted that Mu12fan should be in the "Cole" Hall of Fame......for basically saying the same thing.

I've repeatedly said that I expect Marquette to compete and even like their chances to win without Kolek. Of course there is a downside possibility today. My point is that I don't think the downside scenario is as extreme as some expect.

[tower912]

I've been wrong before.   I can just as easily envision a scenario where Tre and Zaide bust out, combining for 40 minutes and 15 points.
  Creighton is top15,  at home, where they curbstomped UConn.   

[Goose]

tower

I thought the UConn game could get it ugly and it did. There were a lot reasons why I thought UConn could put the hammer down, but today I think it is MU showing that they are an all around good, tough team.

To be honest, if they were going to X today I would be less confident. I know that sounds strange, but playing up to competition might be exactly what is needed for the boys today.

At the very least, I am expecting a fair good performance today. Winning on the road has a tough and Omaha is extra tough. That said, some times very good teams rise to the occasion and that is what I am expecting.

I think MU holds Creighton under 70 today and the defense will be the stud of the game.

[ATWizJr]

Two hours ago, you posted that Mu12fan should be in the "Cole" Hall of Fame......for basically saying the same thing.

What is the  "COLE" that you and others reference?  Thanks.

[We R Final Four]

It is a top 15 opponent in their gym without MU's all American.  I would not be surprised to see a reprise of @UConn.

Didn't you say a day or so ago that MU will win with or without TK?
or am I mistaking you for another scooper?

[MUEng92]

Cult of Low Expectations.  At least I hope that's what it is because that's the context I used it

[tower912]

tower

I thought the UConn game could get it ugly and it did. There were a lot reasons why I thought UConn could put the hammer down, but today I think it is MU showing that they are an all around good, tough team.

To be honest, if they were going to X today I would be less confident. I know that sounds strange, but playing up to competition might be exactly what is needed for the boys today.

At the very least, I am expecting a fair good performance today. Winning on the road has a tough and Omaha is extra tough. That said, some times very good teams rise to the occasion and that is what I am expecting.

I think MU holds Creighton under 70 today and the defense will be the stud of the game.

MU was tied at 18 at UConn.   It was a good game for 8 minutes.   As I also said, I can envision a scenario like the one you describe.  Ross on Scheierman and Stevie on Alexander could be extremely disruptive. That is where my heart is, but not where my money would go.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

At least I tried to explain the basis for my opinion instead of being simplistic and dismissive.

If you assume that every team on one seed line is inherently stronger than every team on the next seed line, and that the highest seed wins every game throughout the tournament, the 1 seeds have an easier path than the 2 seeds.

But the seeding is not that precise and the tournament does not play out  that way.

Over the years, in the only round in which teams in consecutive seed lines are guaranteed to face each other, the 9 seeds have won just over half of the games against 8 seeds. That suggests to me that the difference in strength between teams on consecutive seed lines is not that great, if it exists at all.

The top 1 seeds do have an advantage in the first round because they get to face the very weakest teams in the tournament. But after that matchups and how the tournament plays out take over.

In terms of percentages how much easier do you think the path of the overall 4 seed is than the overall 5 seed. Is it as much better as the path for the overall 1 seed as compared to the  overall 8 seed?

I did explain. The reason it is "simplistic" is because it is simple.  1 seeds have an advantage in the first round, are more likely to face a lower seed in the second round,  and are guarenteed to not face anything higher than a 4 seed until the elite 8. All of these are facts. You can debate how much of an easier path it is or how meanigful it is, but it is an easier path. I'm not debating you on degree or whether other things matter more,  just that a 1 seed has an easier path than a 2 seed. If you pool 362 D1 coaches 362 of them would say a 1 seed is better than a 2 seed.

Again this is not a controversial take.

[nyg]

Cult of Low Expectations.  At least I hope that's what it is because that's the context I used it

Yes, another scoopism.  Used consistently over the years for posters who state anything bad about a game or player.

Least not as bad as "Dung", which has risen from two posters from being funny, then comedians to class clowns. 

Lets hope Oso or other starters don't get in foul trouble early today, otherwise it will get extremely ugly.  Enjoy the game. 

[Tyler COLEk]

I've repeatedly said that I expect Marquette to compete and even like their chances to win without Kolek. Of course there is a downside possibility today. My point is that I don't think the downside scenario is as extreme as some expect.

Can't say this applies without Oso and Kolek both. Though I hope to see this team fight like hell defensively.

[MUfan12]

Can't say this applies without Oso and Kolek both. Though I hope to see this team fight like hell defensively.

Cole HOF!

[mugrad_89]

Can't say this applies without Oso and Kolek both. Though I hope to see this team fight like hell defensively.

That's there oniy chance - Creighton isn't deep so hound them like crazy.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The chances of a win are now remote but this is a big opportunity for some of the guys for their confidence and continued development. 

[wisblue]

I did explain. The reason it is "simplistic" is because it is simple.  1 seeds have an advantage in the first round, are more likely to face a lower seed in the second round,  and are guarenteed to not face anything higher than a 4 seed until the elite 8. All of these are facts. You can debate how much of an easier path it is or how meanigful it is, but it is an easier path. I'm not debating you on degree or whether other things matter more,  just that a 1 seed has an easier path than a 2 seed. If you pool 362 D1 coaches 362 of them would say a 1 seed is better than a 2 seed.

Again this is not a controversial take.

Except I was discussing the difference between the overall 4 seed and the overall 5 seed not all 1 seeds. If you frame the question as covering all 1 seeds and all 2 seeds as if they are all equal that is something different.

If you aren't interested in discussing how much of an advantage that one spot on the seed list provides, that's fine. But, I would bet that if you tracked the results of the number 1 overall seed versus against the results of the number 4 overall seed, the overall 1 would do significantly better.

You have already dismissed my attempt to quantify my opinion that the probability of a good team beating a 4 seed is not any different than the same team beating a 3 seed. The specific matchup is a much bigger factor than the number of the seed.

[Tyler COLEk]

Cole HOF!

That would be voted upon by the scoop media, not present inductees.