Creighton

[Hards Alumni]

The only difference is that the fourth 1 seed will likely get an easier bracket than most of the 2 seeds.  Not having to play UConn, Purdue, or Houston before the Final Four would be an advantage.

Of course, upsets could happen and make it all moot.  But on paper, the West bracket should be the most wide open.

IMO, we are all missing the forest for the trees here.

Any team can run into another team that is able to exploit their weakness perfectly.  And with the growing parity amongst division 1 teams it is becoming more evident every year.

I think the most important thing when getting a bid is what your regional looks like.  If there are teams you match up well with then your seed line isn't as important.  Sure, its great to play as a 2 or a 1, but ultimately, you're getting a pretty good team in round 2 no matter what.  Now what matters is what the profile of that second team is.

I'm not sure I'm explaining this well.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don’t think the team in that group that gets the fourth number 1 seed suddenly has improved its prospects for winning the championship over the team that is number 5 on the seed list and gets a number 2 seed.

You can think that but you are wrong. An easier path matters.  It's not the only thing that matters and it can be debated how much it matters but it absolutely matters.

[tower912]

Do you want Stevie on Scheierman or Alexander?   
Omaha is a b!tch to play at.
TKo health is a wild card.  With him healthy, I see a way for MU to eke out a win.  Without him, double digit loss.

If Ross starts, put him on Scheierman and Stevie on Alexander.

[wisblue]

You can think that but you are wrong. An easier path matters.  It's not the only thing that matters and it can be debated how much it matters but it absolutely matters.

That first sentence is something of a conclusive argument.

You seem to be assuming that team 4 on the seed list has an easier path than team 5 on the seed list.

As Hards Alumni explained above, there's a lot more to the path than the seed position given the importance of matchups. Then there's the fact that the actual path a team has to follow might end up being significantly different than the path it would have followed if the higher seeds win every game. You also can't assume that the teams are placed on the NCAA seed list in the exact order of their inherent strength at the time the tournament comes around. Some teams may be rising and some may be fading (see Marquette as a 5 seed in 2018 and North Carolina in 2022 as an 8 seed)

I will agree that it can be debated how much of a difference one spot on the seed list matters, and it's my opinion that the difference is insignificant.

I looked at something earlier this year that reinforced my opinion. Using Ken Pom ratings and win probabilities I looked at Houston's win probability against a variety of future conference opponents who conveniently covered several potential seed lines. I don't remember from when I jotted these down if they were all home or all away games, but I made sure they were all the same.

At the time I did this Houston was rated number 1 by Ken Pom, so a presumed 1 seed. The win probabilities were:

BYU (5) 2 seed- 63%
Kansas (10) 3 seed- 70%
Baylor (14) 4 seed- 71%
Iowa State (17)- 5 seed- 71%
Oklahoma (18)- 5 seed- 71%
TCU (32)-8 seed-83%
Texas (33)- 9 seed- 82%
Cincinnati (37) 10 seed- 83%
Texas Tech (42) 11 seed- 85%

IMHO this illustrates that the inherent advantage of playing a team one seed line lower is minimal at best.

I did the same thing for BYU and its win probabilities were consistently 10-12% lower than Houston's against the same teams. That reflects the fact that Houston is a stronger team than BYU.

If I remember correctly, MU was a 3 point favorite against MSU in the second round last year. If those teams had played on a neutral court in a non tournament game, and MSU had won, it wouldn't be considered an upset. But people often put a lot more significance on that seed number than they should.

[PointWarrior]

I just pray we don't get Vermont in the first round this year...

IMO, we are all missing the forest for the trees here.

Any team can run into another team that is able to exploit their weakness perfectly.  And with the growing parity amongst division 1 teams it is becoming more evident every year.

I think the most important thing when getting a bid is what your regional looks like.  If there are teams you match up well with then your seed line isn't as important.  Sure, its great to play as a 2 or a 1, but ultimately, you're getting a pretty good team in round 2 no matter what.  Now what matters is what the profile of that second team is.

I'm not sure I'm explaining this well.

[MU82]

You are correct the numbers I cited did not include last years by accident but one year doesn’t make parity a trend.

What is likely a culprit for that is COVID where players got an extra year. That isn’t carrying forward so the average players are naturally going to return to less experience which will likely bring the results back to historical norms.  I believe that is next year.

This is also COVID year, with numerous teams fielding older, more experienced players. And next year will be one, too.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

ESPN preview.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/CBBblockbuster030124/mens-college-basketball-weekend-picks-alabama-tennessee-marquette-creighton

[MuMark]

I’m seeing Creighton up 5.5 now

[StillAWarrior]

I’m seeing Creighton up 5.5 now

Might have something to do with ESPN releasing their preview.

[brewcity77]

It'll be all the sweeter when we beat them without Kolek.

[MurphysTillClose]

It'll be all the sweeter when we beat them without Kolek.

This is where my head is at. Hope the line keeps moving

[brewcity77]

This is where my head is at. Hope the line keeps moving

The Shaka as an underdog narrative is real.

[Newsdreams]

We score more points than them?

Sorry but Shaka 3 Thursdays ago said it isn't as simple as scoring more points, in Shaka I trust.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That first sentence is something of a conclusive argument.

You seem to be assuming that team 4 on the seed list has an easier path than team 5 on the seed list.

As Hards Alumni explained above, there's a lot more to the path than the seed position given the importance of matchups. Then there's the fact that the actual path a team has to follow might end up being significantly different than the path it would have followed if the higher seeds win every game. You also can't assume that the teams are placed on the NCAA seed list in the exact order of their inherent strength at the time the tournament comes around. Some teams may be rising and some may be fading (see Marquette as a 5 seed in 2018 and North Carolina in 2022 as an 8 seed)

I will agree that it can be debated how much of a difference one spot on the seed list matters, and it's my opinion that the difference is insignificant.

I looked at something earlier this year that reinforced my opinion. Using Ken Pom ratings and win probabilities I looked at Houston's win probability against a variety of future conference opponents who conveniently covered several potential seed lines. I don't remember from when I jotted these down if they were all home or all away games, but I made sure they were all the same.

At the time I did this Houston was rated number 1 by Ken Pom, so a presumed 1 seed. The win probabilities were:

BYU (5) 2 seed- 63%
Kansas (10) 3 seed- 70%
Baylor (14) 4 seed- 71%
Iowa State (17)- 5 seed- 71%
Oklahoma (18)- 5 seed- 71%
TCU (32)-8 seed-83%
Texas (33)- 9 seed- 82%
Cincinnati (37) 10 seed- 83%
Texas Tech (42) 11 seed- 85%

IMHO this illustrates that the inherent advantage of playing a team one seed line lower is minimal at best.

I did the same thing for BYU and its win probabilities were consistently 10-12% lower than Houston's against the same teams. That reflects the fact that Houston is a stronger team than BYU.

If I remember correctly, MU was a 3 point favorite against MSU in the second round last year. If those teams had played on a neutral court in a non tournament game, and MSU had won, it wouldn't be considered an upset. But people often put a lot more significance on that seed number than they should.

This was a lot words amounting to nothing.

A 1 seed gets a 16 seed in the first round and is guarenteed to not a see a seed higher than 4 until the elite 8. That is an easier path than any other seed line.

This is not a controversial take.

[MountainCreekHouse]

For what its worth, I was impressed with the way the team played against Providence when Kolek left the game. If anything, a good sign for the future.

Unrelated Creighton-game question for the group: Do you think we have been playing better or worse since the loss of Sean Jones?

[Judge Smails]

I think we’ve been playing better since the Sean Jones injury.  But that isn’t an indictment of Sean Jones, but instead simply the result of a team maturing and gelling as the season progresses. If Sean were still available, I think we’d be even better now than we already are. Hope his recovery is going well.

[wisblue]

This was a lot words amounting to nothing.

A 1 seed gets a 16 seed in the first round and is guarenteed to not a see a seed higher than 4 until the elite 8. That is an easier path than any other seed line.

This is not a controversial take.

At least I tried to explain the basis for my opinion instead of being simplistic and dismissive.

If you assume that every team on one seed line is inherently stronger than every team on the next seed line, and that the highest seed wins every game throughout the tournament, the 1 seeds have an easier path than the 2 seeds.

But the seeding is not that precise and the tournament does not play out  that way.

Over the years, in the only round in which teams in consecutive seed lines are guaranteed to face each other, the 9 seeds have won just over half of the games against 8 seeds. That suggests to me that the difference in strength between teams on consecutive seed lines is not that great, if it exists at all.

The top 1 seeds do have an advantage in the first round because they get to face the very weakest teams in the tournament. But after that matchups and how the tournament plays out take over.

In terms of percentages how much easier do you think the path of the overall 4 seed is than the overall 5 seed. Is it as much better as the path for the overall 1 seed as compared to the  overall 8 seed?

[Galway Eagle]

Sorry but Shaka 3 Thursdays ago said it isn't as simple as scoring more points, in Shaka I trust.

It was a different game back in the old days

[cheebs09]

The Shaka as an underdog narrative is real.

I also don't think Shaka is too fond of the Creighton faithful. Not that I blame him. I'm guessing he will be fired up for this one.

[We R Final Four]

I also don't think Shaka is too fond of the Creighton faithful. Not that I blame him. I'm guessing he will be fired up for this one.

Agreed…..I was thinking last night about which teams/coaches/fans in the Big East really seem to bother Shaka. I think Creighton is on the top of that list…..and it seems to be a short list to me.

[bradforster]

Kolek is out today.  The line has now moved to Creighton -6.5.  Let’s put on a show without our star guard.  Next man up in Omaha.

[Lennys Tap]

This was a lot words amounting to nothing.

A 1 seed gets a 16 seed in the first round and is guarenteed to not a see a seed higher than 4 until the elite 8. That is an easier path than any other seed line.

This is not a controversial take.

Theoretically. And usually. Not always. UCONN was the best team in the tournament last year and it wasn’t really close - 6 games, all easy, double digit wins. They were a #4 seed. The other FF teams were seeded 5, 8 and 9. No #1 made it past the S16 because they were knocked off by those 4, 5 8 and 9 seeds.

All that said, last year was an anomaly. Sometimes the rare exception helps prove the rule.

[tower912]

I also don't think Shaka is too fond of the Creighton faithful. Not that I blame him. I'm guessing he will be fired up for this one.

Hurley isn't too fond of the Creighton faithful, either.

[MUfan12]

Jays by a bunch today. Was gonna be tough with Tyler, but you have to essentially reimagine the offense in two days. The PNR is gonna dry up significantly without a true PG running things. Who else can get separation off the bounce to force help, or kick out to shooters? Would love to be wrong, but I can see this one getting very ugly.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Jays by a bunch today. Was gonna be tough with Tyler, but you have to essentially reimagine the offense in two days. The PNR is gonna dry up significantly without a true PG running things. Who else can get separation off the bounce to kick out to shooters? Would love to be wrong, but I can see this one getting very ugly.

As long as the defense travels, we should be able to compete. Offense will probably be a challenge for sure.