[Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines

[brewcity77]

Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

Because Vegas lines are typically very close to kenpom projections and it's the best approximating tool we have?

[Mu8891]

I really think MU has virtually no chance at a 1 seed.   I'd be happy with a
2 ... or even a 3 ...

And ... I think this may be the year that
MU meets UW in the dance

[DoctorV]

Somehow I missed getting the First Four Out/Next Four Out on this article when I first published. I've updated it to include the first eight teams outside the field, starting with two Big East teams (Providence/Villanova literally decided the last spot between two Big East teams).

That's funny- I looked for it because I was looking for StJ and figured they would be there but didn't see it.

Almost mentioned it, but didn't wanna be that guy

[MuggsyB]

Because Vegas lines are typically very close to kenpom projections and it's the best approximating tool we have?

But when he predicts game to game he's often wrong. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But when he predicts game to game he's often wrong.

So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

[Dr. Blackheart]

So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

And like a weatherman, he provides probabilities.  Vegas does the same thing but gives points (standard deviation).

That said, I prefer play by play services (Haslam) due to sample sizes.

[MuggsyB]

What were the Kenpom predictions for MU game to game in 22-23?

[brewcity77]

What were the Kenpom predictions for MU game to game in 22-23?

Tell me you don't know how this works without telling me you don't know how this works. 

[DoctorV]

Muggsy gonna knock on Pomeroy's door and he's gonna send his floppy disk and hard drive to answer.

[MuggsyB]

Tell me you don't know how this works without telling me you don't know how this works. 

I  know how it works.  It doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot come tournament time. 

[PGsHeroes32]

The local Gophers got their first Q1 win.

People round here talking tourney. Not realizing they need about 13 big 10 wins.

[Dr. Blackheart]

So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

Btw, Pomeroy is a weatherman by field of study.  😆

[1SE]

I really think MU has virtually no chance at a 1 seed.   I'd be happy with a
2 ... or even a 3 ...

And ... I think this may be the year that
MU meets UW in the dance

Keep winning and we'll get there. No one at this time of year last year thought we had a chance at a 2 either.

It's a tough road, but as of now the path to a 1 seed is entirely in our hands - especially after UNC's loss yesterday.

[1SE]

Incidentally, when I say a tough road, it is a tough road. Using the Torvik game by game projects, we have just better than a 1% chance of winning out the regular season and about a 4% chance of winning the all save UCONN. Probably about a 19% chance of winning the BET and less than a 0.2% chance of winning out the regular season and BET.

[brewcity77]

I  know how it works.  It doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot come tournament time.

It does, but that's a really nonsensical rebuttal. Here you are talking about game-by-game predictions and your response to not understanding what those mean is to shift to postseason play?

[wisblue]

But when he predicts game to game he's often wrong.

Those projections (not predictions) are probability based.

If all you do is look at the W and L you are interpreting them wrong. Those projections include probabilities of a team winning.

As a simple example if his projections show a team with 10 games in which they have a 60% chance of winning, some people would look and say "Pomeroy predicts that team to go 10-0." But, in fact, he is projecting them to go 6-4.

If you are looking for a tool that can always predict the right results, you're out of luck.

If there's anything that serves no purpose with the tools that are available today it's the voted polls.

[SaveOD238]

So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

THIS.

My father in law complains all the time about weathermen (except Tom Skilling...he loves that guy) for being "wrong all the time." It drives me nuts because that's a common cognitive bias called the AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC. Essentially, what that means is that it's easier to call to mind examples of when the weatherman was wrong than when he was right (i.e. those examples are more readily available in our memory).  But the availability heuristic ignores the countless forgettable times when the weather man was right.

Weathermen today are FAR more accurate than they have ever been.  But sometimes they're wrong.  It happens.  That's why they give probabilities.

Now take everything I just said and replace "weathermen" with Pomeroy or Torvik. 

[lawdog77]

THIS.

My father in law complains all the time about weathermen (except Tom Skilling...he loves that guy) for being "wrong all the time." It drives me nuts because that's a common cognitive bias called the AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC. Essentially, what that means is that it's easier to call to mind examples of when the weatherman was wrong than when he was right (i.e. those examples are more readily available in our memory).  But the availability heuristic ignores the countless forgettable times when the weather man was right.

Weathermen today are FAR more accurate than they have ever been.  But sometimes they're wrong.  It happens.  That's why they give probabilities.

Now take everything I just said and replace "weathermen" with Pomeroy or Torvik.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXuc7SAyk2s

[Newsdreams]

Those projections (not predictions) are probability based.

If all you do is look at the W and L you are interpreting them wrong. Those projections include probabilities of a team winning.

As a simple example if his projections show a team with 10 games in which they have a 60% chance of winning, some people would look and say "Pomeroy predicts that team to go 10-0." But, in fact, he is projecting them to go 6-4.

If you are looking for a tool that can always predict the right results, you're out of luck.

If there's anything that serves no purpose with the tools that are available today it's the voted polls.

Now you have totally confused Muggsy

[Scoop Snoop]

Now you have totally confused Muggsy

He's been introduced to darkness. It's about time he had a taste of his own medicine.

[HowardsWorld]

Is it possible we move up to the 1 line if we win Saturday and Houston and North Carolina both lose on the road?

[Pepe Sylvia]

Probably not, still gotta jump Zona and Tennessee, But I think UNC and Marquette have like, identical reumes at this point. We'd pass em on the s-curve if they get another L, but to be a one seed you simply cannot lose many games, quality losses or not.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Win the next three games and Marquette will be positioned for a 1 seed.

[brewcity77]

Is it possible we move up to the 1 line if we win Saturday and Houston and North Carolina both lose on the road?

I think our case improves if Arizona, UNC, and Tennessee all lose this weekend while we beat St John's. But if we want to solidly move into that 1-seed conversation, we need to win the next three. If we win 2/17, that's a real resume changer.

[MuggsyB]

Win the next three games and Marquette will be positioned for a 1 seed.

Damn straight.  We control everything.