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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines  (Read 4307 times)

brewcity77

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[Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« on: February 05, 2024, 10:34:40 AM »
Today we dig into Marquette's resume to look at a handful of opponents that are close (some painfully close) to moving up in Quadrant classification. This is particularly relevant as Marquette is one of 6 teams that was considered for the final 1-seed after a ton of mammoth matchups this past weekend. We have a new team on the 1-line, a Marquette non-con opponent skyrocketing up the S-Curve and closer to Q1 status, and a pair of Big East teams just outside the field looking in.

Resume Fine Lines
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HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2024, 05:59:45 PM »
Great write up as always brew. I believe that Marquette controls its own destiny to a one seed. They more than likely play UConn 3 times this season including the big east. If they beat UConn at UConn I would say they move into 1 seed territory. That is the game that will swing them from the 2 to a 1. Don’t believe beating UConn at home will swing them from a 2 to a 1

PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2024, 10:23:18 PM »
Are they doing the early bracket reveal this year? For the top 16.

If so have to believe its coming in the next couple weekends
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2024, 10:25:40 PM »
Are they doing the early bracket reveal this year? For the top 16.

If so have to believe its coming in the next couple weekends

February 17
TAMU

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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2024, 11:20:48 PM »
February 17

This is correct, it's always the first Saturday after Super Bowl Sunday.
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DoctorV

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2024, 12:01:12 AM »
Wow that’s a huge day.

Marquette at UConn at 2 on FOX.

Do they do it on a specific network? Is it just at HT/before a game or is it a full show on its own?

Interesting to see StJ already fall out of Brews projected bracket, much quicker than expected.
A few weeks ago they were a lock…

Shows how quickly things move at this point in the season, especially when your resume is thin.

That said, I think Butler is the next team to fall off here in the next few weeks.
They have 4 game stretch that features UConn, MU, Providence, and Creighton- with 3 at home.
Sounds promising for a bubble team but I think they lose 3/4 and then follow that up with a few more losses @Nova/SH/vStJ to effectively end their season.

Solid effort by Matta and company though! A few super impressive road wins that will keep them in the discussion until the very end.

X v Nova seems like one of those super early elimination games of sorts, huge for both sides.


brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2024, 05:10:40 AM »
Interesting to see StJ already fall out of Brews projected bracket, much quicker than expected.
A few weeks ago they were a lock…

Shows how quickly things move at this point in the season, especially when your resume is thin.

This year it's incredibly close from the 8-line to the first 8-12 teams out. Texas is another good example. They were out of the field on Jan 22, have gone 2-2 since, and moved up to a 6-seed in 2 weeks. Most years feel a lot more locked in by February, this year there's the top 9 teams, then everyone else gets very muddled after that.
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2024, 08:41:32 AM »
Thanks for the analysis Brew.  Would love a 3-2 matchup with Wisconsin to go to the final four.

Goose likes to talk about legendary teams and players.  That would certainly make this team legendary. 

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2024, 08:52:56 AM »
Brew,

If we beat UCONN 2/3, but lose one more game, would that eliminate the chance of getting a #1? 

Its DJOver

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2024, 09:00:44 AM »
Would likely depend on who (or more importantly what quadrant) the other loss is against, as well as what other teams around us do.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum.

MU82

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2024, 09:19:22 AM »
Nice to nudge ahead of Madison for the inside track on Indy. Hope our guys can keep winning to clinch that location for our first two games.

But (and here comes a thought not often stated), I'd sure prefer Detroit to Dallas.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2024, 09:29:55 AM »
Brew,

If we beat UCONN 2/3, but lose one more game, would that eliminate the chance of getting a #1?

Would likely depend on who (or more importantly what quadrant) the other loss is against, as well as what other teams around us do.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum.

This exactly. We have 12 games left IF we make the Big East finals. I suspect if we go 11-1 (most likely loss at UConn) we will end up with a 1-seed. At this point, I'd be surprised if we didn't simply because the teams ahead of us are likely to take losses, as we saw with Kansas last night losing just hours after I moved them up to the 1-line.

10-2 I would say guarantees a 2-seed at worst, but if we go 10-2 and lose at UConn and don't win the Big East Tourney, we won't have a championship. The Committee last year talked about the significance of Marquette being both Big East regular season and tourney champs in them getting the last 2-seed (I had them as a 3 and was very surprised when they landed on the 2-line). At the top of the resume, this committee showed us last year that having some of those chips in your corner matter, so I could see us being on the 2-line behind teams that might not have as good of overall resumes (UNC, Arizona) but have trophies in the bank.

I do think we need to either share the Big East regular season or win the Big East tournament to be confident of getting a 1-seed. And while I don't think conference championship week matters much in the middle of the bracket and on the bubble (see Texas A&M two years ago) they have shown that conference title winners still matter (Marquette and Princeton last year).
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2024, 09:35:07 AM »
This exactly. We have 12 games left IF we make the Big East finals. I suspect if we go 11-1 (most likely loss at UConn) we will end up with a 1-seed. At this point, I'd be surprised if we didn't simply because the teams ahead of us are likely to take losses, as we saw with Kansas last night losing just hours after I moved them up to the 1-line.

10-2 I would say guarantees a 2-seed at worst, but if we go 10-2 and lose at UConn and don't win the Big East Tourney, we won't have a championship. The Committee last year talked about the significance of Marquette being both Big East regular season and tourney champs in them getting the last 2-seed (I had them as a 3 and was very surprised when they landed on the 2-line). At the top of the resume, this committee showed us last year that having some of those chips in your corner matter, so I could see us being on the 2-line behind teams that might not have as good of overall resumes (UNC, Arizona) but have trophies in the bank.

I do think we need to either share the Big East regular season or win the Big East tournament to be confident of getting a 1-seed. And while I don't think conference championship week matters much in the middle of the bracket and on the bubble (see Texas A&M two years ago) they have shown that conference title winners still matter (Marquette and Princeton last year).

Pomeroy has MU losing three more Big East regular season games. And then the BET will come where UConn will be favored. What does 4 more losses get MU as a seed?  Feels like 3/4.

Its DJOver

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2024, 09:43:48 AM »
Again, would likely depend on what other teams around us did as well.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum. 

Another factor to take into consideration is how our previous opponents finish the year.  There is a scenario where all things being equal except Texas, UCLA and ND moving up a quadrant could bump us up a seed line.

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2024, 09:50:57 AM »
Pomeroy has MU losing three more Big East regular season games. And then the BET will come where UConn will be favored. What does 4 more losses get MU as a seed?  Feels like 3/4.

Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything. 

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2024, 09:56:03 AM »
Pomeroy has MU losing three more Big East regular season games. And then the BET will come where UConn will be favored. What does 4 more losses get MU as a seed?  Feels like 3/4.

Probably 3 at worst, possibly still a 2. If we lose the 3 most likely (UConn x2, @ Creighton) we still are adding two more Q1 wins (@ Butler, @ Xavier) and three more Q2 wins (St. John's, Xavier, Providence). Also DePaul, but whatever. Then at MSG, if we're losing to UConn a third time, we would likely add a Q1 (St. John's/PC) and Q1A (Creighton) win before taking a Q1A loss.

Wins: 8 (4 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 Q4)
Losses: 4 (All Q1A)

That would make us 25-9 overall, 9-8 in Q1 with 4 (minimum) Q1A wins, and 6-1 in Q2.  Our top-two quadrants record would be 15-9 as opposed to 14-6 last year but we would have no losses outside the top-two quadrants (last year we had Wisconsin in Q3). It would be very similar to what got us a 2-seed last year. Might still be good enough for a 2, almost certainly no worse than a high 3-seed.
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Scoop Snoop

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2024, 10:06:25 AM »
Again, would likely depend on what other teams around us did as well.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum. 

Another factor to take into consideration is how our previous opponents finish the year.  There is a scenario where all things being equal except Texas, UCLA and ND moving up a quadrant could bump us up a seed line.

Thanks for posting this, as I think there are more than a few scoopers who seem to suffer from tunnel vision. It's not rocket science, yet they seem to naïvely believe in Marquette's ability to totally control its destiny. Time for expresso!
Wild horses couldn't drag me into either political party, but for very different reasons.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2024, 10:11:24 AM »
Probably 3 at worst, possibly still a 2. If we lose the 3 most likely (UConn x2, @ Creighton) we still are adding two more Q1 wins (@ Butler, @ Xavier) and three more Q2 wins (St. John's, Xavier, Providence). Also DePaul, but whatever. Then at MSG, if we're losing to UConn a third time, we would likely add a Q1 (St. John's/PC) and Q1A (Creighton) win before taking a Q1A loss.

Wins: 8 (4 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 Q4)
Losses: 4 (All Q1A)

That would make us 25-9 overall, 9-8 in Q1 with 4 (minimum) Q1A wins, and 6-1 in Q2.  Our top-two quadrants record would be 15-9 as opposed to 14-6 last year but we would have no losses outside the top-two quadrants (last year we had Wisconsin in Q3). It would be very similar to what got us a 2-seed last year. Might still be good enough for a 2, almost certainly no worse than a high 3-seed.

Thanks!  Excellent work and I know every one here appreciates it greatly.

Its DJOver

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2024, 10:16:06 AM »
Thanks for posting this, as I think there are more than a few scoopers who seem to suffer from tunnel vision. It's not rocket science, yet they seem to naïvely believe in Marquette's ability to totally control its destiny. Time for expresso!

Exactly, there's not a "magic number" the way their is for postseason play in many professional sports.  Last year, Madison's wheel fell off down the stretch, if that happens again, we could lose 4 times and still be ahead of them.  Duke's got a Charmin soft schedule the rest of the month, plenty of opportunity to add to their already 3 Q2 losses, and if they go and lose to Louisville, it would take a Wojo level collapse + a DePaul loss for us to drop past them.  Every team still has a month+ left of data points to collect, not just MU.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2024, 10:16:18 AM »
Thanks!  Excellent work and I know every one here appreciates it greatly.

Absolutely true.

Wild horses couldn't drag me into either political party, but for very different reasons.

MUbiz

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2024, 10:21:03 AM »
Wow that’s a huge day.

Marquette at UConn at 2 on FOX.

Do they do it on a specific network? Is it just at HT/before a game or is it a full show on its own?

Interesting to see StJ already fall out of Brews projected bracket, much quicker than expected.
A few weeks ago they were a lock…

Shows how quickly things move at this point in the season, especially when your resume is thin.

That said, I think Butler is the next team to fall off here in the next few weeks.
They have 4 game stretch that features UConn, MU, Providence, and Creighton- with 3 at home.
Sounds promising for a bubble team but I think they lose 3/4 and then follow that up with a few more losses @Nova/SH/vStJ to effectively end their season.

Solid effort by Matta and company though! A few super impressive road wins that will keep them in the discussion until the very end.

X v Nova seems like one of those super early elimination games of sorts, huge for both sides.

The preview show is 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 17, on CBS.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2024, 10:26:54 AM »
Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

Ken Pom is based on Dean Oliver's book on the Four Factors that predict basketball success. It's a very good way to evaluate efficiency and the key drivers of. For example, eFG% correlates 91% to MU's offensive efficiency overall number. Thus, it can be used as a predictive tool with error ranges.

Statheads like it. Eye testers don't. To each their own. If interested see the link for a primer. If you want to go deeper buy the book. I have pros and cons about these stat services but that is too geeky for here.

https://aquicktimeout.com/dean-olivers-four-factors-for-basketball-success/

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #22 on: February 06, 2024, 10:59:05 AM »
Somehow I missed getting the First Four Out/Next Four Out on this article when I first published. I've updated it to include the first eight teams outside the field, starting with two Big East teams (Providence/Villanova literally decided the last spot between two Big East teams).
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Newsdreams

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2024, 02:53:07 PM »
Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

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wisblue

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2024, 02:56:50 PM »
Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

It is one of the metrics that appears on a team’s team sheet. So, it’s a data point that is there for the Selection Committee to consider.

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #25 on: February 06, 2024, 03:01:29 PM »
Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

Because Vegas lines are typically very close to kenpom projections and it's the best approximating tool we have?
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Mu8891

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #26 on: February 06, 2024, 04:22:28 PM »
I really think MU has virtually no chance at a 1 seed.   I’d be happy with a
2 … or even a 3 …

And … I think this may be the year that
MU meets UW in the dance

DoctorV

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #27 on: February 06, 2024, 08:34:34 PM »
Somehow I missed getting the First Four Out/Next Four Out on this article when I first published. I've updated it to include the first eight teams outside the field, starting with two Big East teams (Providence/Villanova literally decided the last spot between two Big East teams).

That’s funny- I looked for it because I was looking for StJ and figured they would be there but didn’t see it.

Almost mentioned it, but didn’t wanna be that guy

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #28 on: February 06, 2024, 08:37:13 PM »
Because Vegas lines are typically very close to kenpom projections and it's the best approximating tool we have?

But when he predicts game to game he's often wrong. 

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #29 on: February 06, 2024, 09:08:47 PM »
But when he predicts game to game he's often wrong.

So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast
TAMU

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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #30 on: February 06, 2024, 09:54:50 PM »
So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

And like a weatherman, he provides probabilities.  Vegas does the same thing but gives points (standard deviation).

That said, I prefer play by play services (Haslam) due to sample sizes.

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #31 on: February 06, 2024, 09:56:53 PM »
What were the Kenpom predictions for MU game to game in 22-23?

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #32 on: February 06, 2024, 10:04:48 PM »
What were the Kenpom predictions for MU game to game in 22-23?

Tell me you don't know how this works without telling me you don't know how this works.  ::)
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DoctorV

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #33 on: February 06, 2024, 10:07:34 PM »
Muggsy gonna knock on Pomeroy’s door and he’s gonna send his floppy disk and hard drive to answer.

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #34 on: February 06, 2024, 10:10:14 PM »
Tell me you don't know how this works without telling me you don't know how this works.  ::)

I  know how it works.  It doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot come tournament time. 

PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #35 on: February 06, 2024, 10:10:22 PM »
The local Gophers got their first Q1 win.

People round here talking tourney. Not realizing they need about 13 big 10 wins.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #36 on: February 06, 2024, 10:11:20 PM »
So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

Btw, Pomeroy is a weatherman by field of study.  😆

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2024, 02:25:58 AM »
I really think MU has virtually no chance at a 1 seed.   I’d be happy with a
2 … or even a 3 …

And … I think this may be the year that
MU meets UW in the dance

Keep winning and we'll get there. No one at this time of year last year thought we had a chance at a 2 either.

It's a tough road, but as of now the path to a 1 seed is entirely in our hands - especially after UNC's loss yesterday.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #38 on: February 07, 2024, 02:33:56 AM »
Incidentally, when I say a tough road, it is a tough road. Using the Torvik game by game projects, we have just better than a 1% chance of winning out the regular season and about a 4% chance of winning the all save UCONN. Probably about a 19% chance of winning the BET and less than a 0.2% chance of winning out the regular season and BET.

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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #39 on: February 07, 2024, 05:33:20 AM »
I  know how it works.  It doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot come tournament time.

It does, but that's a really nonsensical rebuttal. Here you are talking about game-by-game predictions and your response to not understanding what those mean is to shift to postseason play?
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wisblue

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #40 on: February 07, 2024, 05:38:39 AM »
But when he predicts game to game he's often wrong.

Those projections (not predictions) are probability based.

If all you do is look at the W and L you are interpreting them wrong. Those projections include probabilities of a team winning.

As a simple example if his projections show a team with 10 games in which they have a 60% chance of winning, some people would look and say “Pomeroy predicts that team to go 10-0.” But, in fact, he is projecting them to go 6-4.

If you are looking for a tool that can always predict the right results, you’re out of luck.

If there’s anything that serves no purpose with the tools that are available today it’s the voted polls.

SaveOD238

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #41 on: February 07, 2024, 06:18:14 AM »
So is the weatherman but i still check the forecast

THIS.

My father in law complains all the time about weathermen (except Tom Skilling...he loves that guy) for being "wrong all the time." It drives me nuts because that's a common cognitive bias called the AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC. Essentially, what that means is that it's easier to call to mind examples of when the weatherman was wrong than when he was right (i.e. those examples are more readily available in our memory).  But the availability heuristic ignores the countless forgettable times when the weather man was right.

Weathermen today are FAR more accurate than they have ever been.  But sometimes they're wrong.  It happens.  That's why they give probabilities.

Now take everything I just said and replace "weathermen" with Pomeroy or Torvik. 

lawdog77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #42 on: February 07, 2024, 06:25:34 AM »
THIS.

My father in law complains all the time about weathermen (except Tom Skilling...he loves that guy) for being "wrong all the time." It drives me nuts because that's a common cognitive bias called the AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC. Essentially, what that means is that it's easier to call to mind examples of when the weatherman was wrong than when he was right (i.e. those examples are more readily available in our memory).  But the availability heuristic ignores the countless forgettable times when the weather man was right.

Weathermen today are FAR more accurate than they have ever been.  But sometimes they're wrong.  It happens.  That's why they give probabilities.

Now take everything I just said and replace "weathermen" with Pomeroy or Torvik.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #43 on: February 07, 2024, 01:15:47 PM »
Those projections (not predictions) are probability based.

If all you do is look at the W and L you are interpreting them wrong. Those projections include probabilities of a team winning.

As a simple example if his projections show a team with 10 games in which they have a 60% chance of winning, some people would look and say “Pomeroy predicts that team to go 10-0.” But, in fact, he is projecting them to go 6-4.

If you are looking for a tool that can always predict the right results, you’re out of luck.

If there’s anything that serves no purpose with the tools that are available today it’s the voted polls.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #44 on: February 07, 2024, 01:29:36 PM »
Now you have totally confused Muggsy

He's been introduced to darkness. It's about time he had a taste of his own medicine.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #45 on: February 08, 2024, 05:16:36 PM »
Is it possible we move up to the 1 line if we win Saturday and Houston and North Carolina both lose on the road?

Pepe Sylvia

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #46 on: February 08, 2024, 05:25:26 PM »
Probably not, still gotta jump Zona and Tennessee, But I think UNC and Marquette have like, identical reumes at this point. We'd pass em on the s-curve if they get another L, but to be a one seed you simply cannot lose many games, quality losses or not.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2024, 06:13:58 PM »
Win the next three games and Marquette will be positioned for a 1 seed.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2024, 06:40:55 PM »
Is it possible we move up to the 1 line if we win Saturday and Houston and North Carolina both lose on the road?

I think our case improves if Arizona, UNC, and Tennessee all lose this weekend while we beat St John's. But if we want to solidly move into that 1-seed conversation, we need to win the next three. If we win 2/17, that's a real resume changer.
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MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2024, 06:52:00 PM »
Win the next three games and Marquette will be positioned for a 1 seed.

Damn straight.  We control everything. 

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #50 on: February 08, 2024, 07:09:22 PM »
Damn straight.  We control everything.

Yes, but it's not realistic to expect wins in every game.

As I've said, going into each game, I expect victory. I'm an optimist.

But as I look at an entire season, or the whole BEast season, or a large block of games, I know it's not realistic to expect 40-0 or 20-0 or 10-0. There are reasons why nobody has gone unbeaten in almost 50 years.

So sure, we "control" everything because we theoretically can win out. But there are a lot of games left, and how realistic is it to expect it?

It's like with Wisconsin being in the driver's seat after 5 games. There was a long way left, and it was unrealistic to expect them to lose 0-2 games the rest of the way.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #51 on: February 08, 2024, 07:36:21 PM »
Yes, but it's not realistic to expect wins in every game.

As I've said, going into each game, I expect victory. I'm an optimist.

But as I look at an entire season, or the whole BEast season, or a large block of games, I know it's not realistic to expect 40-0 or 20-0 or 10-0. There are reasons why nobody has gone unbeaten in almost 50 years.

So sure, we "control" everything because we theoretically can win out. But there are a lot of games left, and how realistic is it to expect it?

It's like with Wisconsin being in the driver's seat after 5 games. There was a long way left, and it was unrealistic to expect them to lose 0-2 games the rest of the way.

It will be difficult but the opportunity is there.  At the end of the day that's all we can ask for. Especially after that complete meltdown vs Butler at Fiserv.  Yes, it probably unlikely we get a #1 seed, but nothing is impossible.  What is certain is we have yet to go medieval for 40 mins.  This cannot be disputed and we're capable of unleashing 40 mins of relentless fury when necessary.  Meaning on 2-17. 

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #52 on: February 08, 2024, 07:57:39 PM »
We control everything assumes the other team.plays no part in the outcome…….that is silly and arrogant.

MU is a good team……there are other good teams…….to expect to win every game is unrealistic in any sport when playing against teams of similar quality.

Enjoy the friggin season…….this team will give it their best…..but in a few games the rest of the way the shots won’t fall or the other team will out play them.

We all want them to win every game…….but nobody here can post it into existence…….

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #53 on: February 08, 2024, 08:04:30 PM »
We control everything assumes the other team.plays no part in the outcome…….that is silly and arrogant.

MU is a good team……there are other good teams…….to expect to win every game is unrealistic in any sport when playing against teams of similar quality.

Enjoy the friggin season…….this team will give it their best…..but in a few games the rest of the way the shots won’t fall or the other team will out play them.

We all want them to win every game…….but nobody here can post it into existence…….

Point well taken but besides UCONN I feel we're better than our opponents.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #54 on: February 08, 2024, 08:06:02 PM »
Not enough better that winning can be assumed.  Except DePaul and Georgetown
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #55 on: February 08, 2024, 08:07:14 PM »
Not enough better that winning can be assumed.  Except DePaul and Georgetown

I don't disagree with that. 

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #56 on: February 09, 2024, 08:09:12 AM »
Agree w Brew, we would need to leapfrog all three of UNC, Tennessee, and Arizona, OR just win out (preferred option).

UNC remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Miami
Tue, Feb 13   @Syracuse
Sat, Feb 17   vsVirginia Tech
Sat, Feb 24   @Virginia
Mon, Feb 26   vsMiami
Sat, Mar 2    vsNC State
Tue, Mar 5    vsNotre Dame
Sat, Mar 9    @9 Duke


Tennessee remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Texas A&M
Wed, Feb 14   @Arkansas
Sat, Feb 17   vsVanderbilt
Tue, Feb 20   @Missouri
Sat, Feb 24   vsTexas A&M
Wed, Feb 28   vs12 Auburn
Sat, Mar 2    @16 Alabama
Wed, Mar 6   @15 South Carolina
Sat, Mar 9    vs17 Kentucky


Arizona remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Colorado
Sat, Feb 17   vsArizona State
Thu, Feb 22   vsWashington State
Sat, Feb 24   vsWashington
Wed, Feb 28   @Arizona State
Sat, Mar 2    vsOregon
Thu, Mar 7    @UCLA
Sat, Mar 9    @USC

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #57 on: February 09, 2024, 08:35:14 AM »


It's like with Wisconsin being in the driver's seat after 5 games. There was a long way left, and it was unrealistic to expect them to lose 0-2 games the rest of the way.

I don’t think anyone said that they expected Wisconsin to lose 0-2 games over the last 15 conference games. But, since Purdue already had road losses to Notthwestern and Nebraska and the Badgers hung a rare conference home loss on MSU, it wasn’t unrealistic to think that the Badgers would only lose 1 more game than Putdue the rest of the way.

Wisconsin was in a great position after 5 games, but they blew their advantage by losing to two of the worst teams in the conference.

HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #58 on: February 09, 2024, 08:51:39 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2024, 08:55:36 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?

Depends on what other teams currently on the 1-2-maybe even 3 line do.  There's probably scenarios where both MU and UConn would get 1's, there's probably scenarios where neither would.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #60 on: February 09, 2024, 08:56:46 AM »
I don't think the committee uses conference standings at all to determine seeding. They may use head to head if the resumes are otherwise equal.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #61 on: February 09, 2024, 08:58:50 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?

We would certainly be above UConn on the S-Curve. It would hard to imagine us not getting a 1 seed with 3 wins of that quality
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #62 on: February 09, 2024, 08:59:49 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?


Probably both get 1s

Cause that scenario almost certainly has us as BET champs as well.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #63 on: February 09, 2024, 09:17:42 AM »
We control everything assumes the other team.plays no part in the outcome…….that is silly and arrogant.

MU is a good team……there are other good teams…….to expect to win every game is unrealistic in any sport when playing against teams of similar quality.

Enjoy the friggin season…….this team will give it their best…..but in a few games the rest of the way the shots won’t fall or the other team will out play them.

We all want them to win every game…….but nobody here can post it into existence…….
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #64 on: February 09, 2024, 09:48:38 AM »
Agree w Brew, we would need to leapfrog all three of UNC, Tennessee, and Arizona, OR just win out (preferred option).

UNC remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Miami
Tue, Feb 13   @Syracuse
Sat, Feb 17   vsVirginia Tech
Sat, Feb 24   @Virginia
Mon, Feb 26   vsMiami
Sat, Mar 2    vsNC State
Tue, Mar 5    vsNotre Dame
Sat, Mar 9    @9 Duke


Tennessee remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Texas A&M
Wed, Feb 14   @Arkansas
Sat, Feb 17   vsVanderbilt
Tue, Feb 20   @Missouri
Sat, Feb 24   vsTexas A&M
Wed, Feb 28   vs12 Auburn
Sat, Mar 2    @16 Alabama
Wed, Mar 6   @15 South Carolina
Sat, Mar 9    vs17 Kentucky


Arizona remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Colorado
Sat, Feb 17   vsArizona State
Thu, Feb 22   vsWashington State
Sat, Feb 24   vsWashington
Wed, Feb 28   @Arizona State
Sat, Mar 2    vsOregon
Thu, Mar 7    @UCLA
Sat, Mar 9    @USC

The biggest thing is that we have more opportunities to improve our resume than the rest of them do. We could get as few as 3 and as many as 5 games against protected seeds between now and Selection Sunday. Arizona will have none, UNC would have at most two. Tennessee is the only other one with a number of chances. If we perform well in those games (3-2, 4-1, or better) while taking care of business against lesser foes, we will certainly pass Arizona and UNC. There is nothing they can do about that.

Tennessee is the biggest competition, and I would even put Kansas ahead of the other two simply because of the wins they have already accrued and the opportunities they have.
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HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #65 on: February 09, 2024, 12:11:53 PM »
The biggest thing is that we have more opportunities to improve our resume than the rest of them do. We could get as few as 3 and as many as 5 games against protected seeds between now and Selection Sunday. Arizona will have none, UNC would have at most two. Tennessee is the only other one with a number of chances. If we perform well in those games (3-2, 4-1, or better) while taking care of business against lesser foes, we will certainly pass Arizona and UNC. There is nothing they can do about that.

Tennessee is the biggest competition, and I would even put Kansas ahead of the other two simply because of the wins they have already accrued and the opportunities they have.

100% agree. Marquette has minimum 2 against Uconn, 1 against Creighton and more than like at minimum 1 more against Creighton/Uconn depending on how the cards fall to end the year.

Tennessee is the only team I want Marquette to avoid. I believe they are the best team in the country.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #66 on: February 09, 2024, 12:20:43 PM »
We can only control what we do !!!  Winning cures all, ! ! !  Just WIN Baby ! ! !  8-)

Pepe Sylvia

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #67 on: February 09, 2024, 01:06:32 PM »
We have 5 Q1 guaranteed games remaining on the schedule that are likely to still be there on selection sunday. Both of the UConn, and at Xavier, Butler, and Creighton. To get a 1 seed, we probably have to go 4-1 in those. 3-2 at minimum. 3-2 maybe the minimum just to protect our projected 2.

The Butler loss is the real craw-sticker this year. Why oh why we played catastrophically awful for the second half of that game I will never understand. With a win there we're probably the last 1 seed right now.

Got beat by Providence and Wisconsin

Hard fought losses to Seton Hall and Purdue.

Just can't even tell what happened against Butler. Maybe they all caught the flu at halftime.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #68 on: February 10, 2024, 11:52:17 AM »
We have 5 Q1 guaranteed games remaining on the schedule that are likely to still be there on selection sunday. Both of the UConn, and at Xavier, Butler, and Creighton. To get a 1 seed, we probably have to go 4-1 in those. 3-2 at minimum. 3-2 maybe the minimum just to protect our projected 2.

The Butler loss is the real craw-sticker this year. Why oh why we played catastrophically awful for the second half of that game I will never understand. With a win there we're probably the last 1 seed right now.

Got beat by Providence and Wisconsin

Hard fought losses to Seton Hall and Purdue.

Just can't even tell what happened against Butler. Maybe they all caught the flu at halftime.

If we go 3-2 and win the other 4 games, we are a lock for at least a 2 seed. Probably not a 1 but possible if the others around us fall apart.

I think theres currently a top 3 (UConn, UH, and Shreks team) and then a group of 5 (Tenn, Zona, MU, UNC, and KU) competing for the last one seed.  There's a significant gap between those 5 and the rest of the field. It would take multiple bad losses without big wins or big wins with no bad losses from someone on the three line for one of those 5 to drop to a 3.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #69 on: February 14, 2024, 02:22:34 AM »
Odds of winning out now about 2% - win @UCONN and it jumps to 8% - or, beat everyone but @UCONN odds about 8% - I'd say beating everyone except @UCONN would be a 1 seed, so let's put an 8% chance on that.

If you think we need 1 of 3 again UCONN/@CU to get a two seed, odds are about 16.5%. If you think we get a two without beating UCONN or @CU, up to about 38%. That said, odds of winning at least 1 of 3 against UCONN/@CU are almost 79%.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #70 on: February 14, 2024, 10:23:45 AM »
I'm fairly certain were the top 2 seed at the moment andb theres a decent gap between the 3s and 2s. I think 6-2 locks us into the 2 seed regardless of BET. 5-3 may be enough depending on what those around us do.

7-1 feels like a 1 seed to me. Maybe we could miss if Zona wins out through the P12 championship and we falter in the BET
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #71 on: February 14, 2024, 10:32:13 AM »
I'm fairly certain were the top 2 seed at the moment andb theres a decent gap between the 3s and 2s. I think 6-2 locks us into the 2 seed regardless of BET. 5-3 may be enough depending on what those around us do.

7-1 feels like a 1 seed to me. Maybe we could miss if Zona wins out through the P12 championship and we falter in the BET

You counting Butler in that? Cause we only got 7 games left.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #72 on: February 14, 2024, 10:40:51 AM »
The game on Saturday vs Uconn is for the last 1 seed if the tournament started next week. The only team that is a lock for a 1 seed as of now is Purdue. Marquette could play Uconn 3 times and even if MU won 2/3 I believe they would over take UConn's 1 seed.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #73 on: February 14, 2024, 10:48:50 AM »
The game on Saturday vs Uconn is for the last 1 seed if the tournament started next week. The only team that is a lock for a 1 seed as of now is Purdue. Marquette could play Uconn 3 times and even if MU won 2/3 I believe they would over take UConn's 1 seed.

UConn would not fall off the 1 line.  Like TAMU said, the top 3 have a cushion over the next 5-6 teams.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #74 on: February 14, 2024, 10:52:34 AM »
The game on Saturday vs Uconn is for the last 1 seed if the tournament started next week. The only team that is a lock for a 1 seed as of now is Purdue. Marquette could play Uconn 3 times and even if MU won 2/3 I believe they would over take UConn's 1 seed.

Yes, I think the only way UCONN falls off the one line is if they don't win the BE, which likely means we had to beat them twice.

But depending on what happens with the others (if Zona trips up, or Houston loses maybe 3 more) I could see both us and UCONN on the 1 line with a series split. 25-6 with wins v. UCONN, @ Creighton, @ILL, n KU,  strikes me as stronger resume than a 25-6 Houston or a 25-6 Zona whose best win is???  v. Bucky?

Houston is really a wild card - they have 6 Q1 and 3Q1A games left - go 5-1 there and they're a 1 seed lock. Go 2-4 they might be down to a 3 seed.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2024, 10:57:35 AM by 1SE »
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HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #75 on: February 14, 2024, 10:52:53 AM »
UConn would not fall off the 1 line.  Like TAMU said, the top 3 have a cushion over the next 5-6 teams.

I'm not saying they will fall off with this lose. I'm saying if Marquette were to sweep them 3-0 they would surely take their 1 seed. I said if they win saturday they would move up to the final 1 seed overtaking Zona's 1 seed.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #76 on: February 14, 2024, 10:55:19 AM »
Yes, I think the only way UCONN falls off the one line is if they don't win the BE, which likely means we had to beat them twice.

But depending on what happens with the others (if Zona trips up, or Houston loses maybe 3 more) I could both us and UCONN on the 1 line with a series split. 25-6 with wins v. UCONN, @ Creighton, @ILL, n KU,  strikes me as stronger resume than a 25-6 Houston or a 25-6 Zona whose best win is???  v. Bucky?

Houston is really a wild card - they have 6 Q1 and 3Q1A games left - go 5-1 there and they're a 1 seed lock. Go 2-4 they might be down to a 3 seed.

I think its more likely that Marquette grabs the final one splitting with Uconn than Arizona winning out and getting it. Zona at some point needs to be punished for their lack of schedule. Its not thier fault but they have 0 quad 1 games remaining. With the same amount of losses as Marquette they don't deserve to be in consideration over Marquette.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #77 on: February 14, 2024, 10:59:55 AM »
You counting Butler in that? Cause we only got 7 games left.

Yeah,  i was having the same conversation yesterday and forgot to update the number
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #78 on: February 14, 2024, 11:06:33 AM »
Yeah,  i was having the same conversation yesterday and forgot to update the number

No worries, I figured cause you added the “regardless of BET” part

I’m pretty confident 4-3 now post butler will keep a 2
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