[Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines

[brewcity77]

Today we dig into Marquette's resume to look at a handful of opponents that are close (some painfully close) to moving up in Quadrant classification. This is particularly relevant as Marquette is one of 6 teams that was considered for the final 1-seed after a ton of mammoth matchups this past weekend. We have a new team on the 1-line, a Marquette non-con opponent skyrocketing up the S-Curve and closer to Q1 status, and a pair of Big East teams just outside the field looking in.

Resume Fine Lines

[HowardsWorld]

Great write up as always brew. I believe that Marquette controls its own destiny to a one seed. They more than likely play UConn 3 times this season including the big east. If they beat UConn at UConn I would say they move into 1 seed territory. That is the game that will swing them from the 2 to a 1. Don't believe beating UConn at home will swing them from a 2 to a 1

[PGsHeroes32]

Are they doing the early bracket reveal this year? For the top 16.

If so have to believe its coming in the next couple weekends

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Are they doing the early bracket reveal this year? For the top 16.

If so have to believe its coming in the next couple weekends

February 17

[brewcity77]

February 17

This is correct, it's always the first Saturday after Super Bowl Sunday.

[DoctorV]

Wow that's a huge day.

Marquette at UConn at 2 on FOX.

Do they do it on a specific network? Is it just at HT/before a game or is it a full show on its own?

Interesting to see StJ already fall out of Brews projected bracket, much quicker than expected.
A few weeks ago they were a lock...

Shows how quickly things move at this point in the season, especially when your resume is thin.

That said, I think Butler is the next team to fall off here in the next few weeks.
They have 4 game stretch that features UConn, MU, Providence, and Creighton- with 3 at home.
Sounds promising for a bubble team but I think they lose 3/4 and then follow that up with a few more losses @Nova/SH/vStJ to effectively end their season.

Solid effort by Matta and company though! A few super impressive road wins that will keep them in the discussion until the very end.

X v Nova seems like one of those super early elimination games of sorts, huge for both sides.

[brewcity77]

Interesting to see StJ already fall out of Brews projected bracket, much quicker than expected.
A few weeks ago they were a lock...

Shows how quickly things move at this point in the season, especially when your resume is thin.

This year it's incredibly close from the 8-line to the first 8-12 teams out. Texas is another good example. They were out of the field on Jan 22, have gone 2-2 since, and moved up to a 6-seed in 2 weeks. Most years feel a lot more locked in by February, this year there's the top 9 teams, then everyone else gets very muddled after that.

[Shooter McGavin]

Thanks for the analysis Brew.  Would love a 3-2 matchup with Wisconsin to go to the final four.

Goose likes to talk about legendary teams and players.  That would certainly make this team legendary. 

[MuggsyB]

Brew,

If we beat UCONN 2/3, but lose one more game, would that eliminate the chance of getting a #1? 

[Its DJOver]

Would likely depend on who (or more importantly what quadrant) the other loss is against, as well as what other teams around us do.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum.

[MU82]

Nice to nudge ahead of Madison for the inside track on Indy. Hope our guys can keep winning to clinch that location for our first two games.

But (and here comes a thought not often stated), I'd sure prefer Detroit to Dallas.

[brewcity77]

Brew,

If we beat UCONN 2/3, but lose one more game, would that eliminate the chance of getting a #1?

Would likely depend on who (or more importantly what quadrant) the other loss is against, as well as what other teams around us do.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum.

This exactly. We have 12 games left IF we make the Big East finals. I suspect if we go 11-1 (most likely loss at UConn) we will end up with a 1-seed. At this point, I'd be surprised if we didn't simply because the teams ahead of us are likely to take losses, as we saw with Kansas last night losing just hours after I moved them up to the 1-line.

10-2 I would say guarantees a 2-seed at worst, but if we go 10-2 and lose at UConn and don't win the Big East Tourney, we won't have a championship. The Committee last year talked about the significance of Marquette being both Big East regular season and tourney champs in them getting the last 2-seed (I had them as a 3 and was very surprised when they landed on the 2-line). At the top of the resume, this committee showed us last year that having some of those chips in your corner matter, so I could see us being on the 2-line behind teams that might not have as good of overall resumes (UNC, Arizona) but have trophies in the bank.

I do think we need to either share the Big East regular season or win the Big East tournament to be confident of getting a 1-seed. And while I don't think conference championship week matters much in the middle of the bracket and on the bubble (see Texas A&M two years ago) they have shown that conference title winners still matter (Marquette and Princeton last year).

[Dr. Blackheart]

This exactly. We have 12 games left IF we make the Big East finals. I suspect if we go 11-1 (most likely loss at UConn) we will end up with a 1-seed. At this point, I'd be surprised if we didn't simply because the teams ahead of us are likely to take losses, as we saw with Kansas last night losing just hours after I moved them up to the 1-line.

10-2 I would say guarantees a 2-seed at worst, but if we go 10-2 and lose at UConn and don't win the Big East Tourney, we won't have a championship. The Committee last year talked about the significance of Marquette being both Big East regular season and tourney champs in them getting the last 2-seed (I had them as a 3 and was very surprised when they landed on the 2-line). At the top of the resume, this committee showed us last year that having some of those chips in your corner matter, so I could see us being on the 2-line behind teams that might not have as good of overall resumes (UNC, Arizona) but have trophies in the bank.

I do think we need to either share the Big East regular season or win the Big East tournament to be confident of getting a 1-seed. And while I don't think conference championship week matters much in the middle of the bracket and on the bubble (see Texas A&M two years ago) they have shown that conference title winners still matter (Marquette and Princeton last year).

Pomeroy has MU losing three more Big East regular season games. And then the BET will come where UConn will be favored. What does 4 more losses get MU as a seed?  Feels like 3/4.

[Its DJOver]

Again, would likely depend on what other teams around us did as well.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum. 

Another factor to take into consideration is how our previous opponents finish the year.  There is a scenario where all things being equal except Texas, UCLA and ND moving up a quadrant could bump us up a seed line.

[MuggsyB]

Pomeroy has MU losing three more Big East regular season games. And then the BET will come where UConn will be favored. What does 4 more losses get MU as a seed?  Feels like 3/4.

Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything. 

[brewcity77]

Pomeroy has MU losing three more Big East regular season games. And then the BET will come where UConn will be favored. What does 4 more losses get MU as a seed?  Feels like 3/4.

Probably 3 at worst, possibly still a 2. If we lose the 3 most likely (UConn x2, @ Creighton) we still are adding two more Q1 wins (@ Butler, @ Xavier) and three more Q2 wins (St. John's, Xavier, Providence). Also DePaul, but whatever. Then at MSG, if we're losing to UConn a third time, we would likely add a Q1 (St. John's/PC) and Q1A (Creighton) win before taking a Q1A loss.

Wins: 8 (4 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 Q4)
Losses: 4 (All Q1A)

That would make us 25-9 overall, 9-8 in Q1 with 4 (minimum) Q1A wins, and 6-1 in Q2.  Our top-two quadrants record would be 15-9 as opposed to 14-6 last year but we would have no losses outside the top-two quadrants (last year we had Wisconsin in Q3). It would be very similar to what got us a 2-seed last year. Might still be good enough for a 2, almost certainly no worse than a high 3-seed.

[Scoop Snoop]

Again, would likely depend on what other teams around us did as well.  MU games don't occur in a vacuum. 

Another factor to take into consideration is how our previous opponents finish the year.  There is a scenario where all things being equal except Texas, UCLA and ND moving up a quadrant could bump us up a seed line.

Thanks for posting this, as I think there are more than a few scoopers who seem to suffer from tunnel vision. It's not rocket science, yet they seem to naïvely believe in Marquette's ability to totally control its destiny. Time for expresso!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Probably 3 at worst, possibly still a 2. If we lose the 3 most likely (UConn x2, @ Creighton) we still are adding two more Q1 wins (@ Butler, @ Xavier) and three more Q2 wins (St. John's, Xavier, Providence). Also DePaul, but whatever. Then at MSG, if we're losing to UConn a third time, we would likely add a Q1 (St. John's/PC) and Q1A (Creighton) win before taking a Q1A loss.

Wins: 8 (4 Q1, 3 Q2, 1 Q4)
Losses: 4 (All Q1A)

That would make us 25-9 overall, 9-8 in Q1 with 4 (minimum) Q1A wins, and 6-1 in Q2.  Our top-two quadrants record would be 15-9 as opposed to 14-6 last year but we would have no losses outside the top-two quadrants (last year we had Wisconsin in Q3). It would be very similar to what got us a 2-seed last year. Might still be good enough for a 2, almost certainly no worse than a high 3-seed.

Thanks!  Excellent work and I know every one here appreciates it greatly.

[Its DJOver]

Thanks for posting this, as I think there are more than a few scoopers who seem to suffer from tunnel vision. It's not rocket science, yet they seem to naïvely believe in Marquette's ability to totally control its destiny. Time for expresso!

Exactly, there's not a "magic number" the way their is for postseason play in many professional sports.  Last year, Madison's wheel fell off down the stretch, if that happens again, we could lose 4 times and still be ahead of them.  Duke's got a Charmin soft schedule the rest of the month, plenty of opportunity to add to their already 3 Q2 losses, and if they go and lose to Louisville, it would take a Wojo level collapse + a DePaul loss for us to drop past them.  Every team still has a month+ left of data points to collect, not just MU.

[Scoop Snoop]

Thanks!  Excellent work and I know every one here appreciates it greatly.

Absolutely true.

[MUbiz]

Wow that's a huge day.

Marquette at UConn at 2 on FOX.

Do they do it on a specific network? Is it just at HT/before a game or is it a full show on its own?

Interesting to see StJ already fall out of Brews projected bracket, much quicker than expected.
A few weeks ago they were a lock...

Shows how quickly things move at this point in the season, especially when your resume is thin.

That said, I think Butler is the next team to fall off here in the next few weeks.
They have 4 game stretch that features UConn, MU, Providence, and Creighton- with 3 at home.
Sounds promising for a bubble team but I think they lose 3/4 and then follow that up with a few more losses @Nova/SH/vStJ to effectively end their season.

Solid effort by Matta and company though! A few super impressive road wins that will keep them in the discussion until the very end.

X v Nova seems like one of those super early elimination games of sorts, huge for both sides.

The preview show is 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 17, on CBS.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

Ken Pom is based on Dean Oliver's book on the Four Factors that predict basketball success. It's a very good way to evaluate efficiency and the key drivers of. For example, eFG% correlates 91% to MU's offensive efficiency overall number. Thus, it can be used as a predictive tool with error ranges.

Statheads like it. Eye testers don't. To each their own. If interested see the link for a primer. If you want to go deeper buy the book. I have pros and cons about these stat services but that is too geeky for here.

https://aquicktimeout.com/dean-olivers-four-factors-for-basketball-success/

[brewcity77]

Somehow I missed getting the First Four Out/Next Four Out on this article when I first published. I've updated it to include the first eight teams outside the field, starting with two Big East teams (Providence/Villanova literally decided the last spot between two Big East teams).

[Newsdreams]

Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

Lost, but Manatees are delicious

[wisblue]

Maybe it's me but I'm not sure why KenPom means much of anything.

It is one of the metrics that appears on a team's team sheet. So, it's a data point that is there for the Selection Committee to consider.