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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines  (Read 4309 times)

MU82

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #50 on: February 08, 2024, 07:09:22 PM »
Damn straight.  We control everything.

Yes, but it's not realistic to expect wins in every game.

As I've said, going into each game, I expect victory. I'm an optimist.

But as I look at an entire season, or the whole BEast season, or a large block of games, I know it's not realistic to expect 40-0 or 20-0 or 10-0. There are reasons why nobody has gone unbeaten in almost 50 years.

So sure, we "control" everything because we theoretically can win out. But there are a lot of games left, and how realistic is it to expect it?

It's like with Wisconsin being in the driver's seat after 5 games. There was a long way left, and it was unrealistic to expect them to lose 0-2 games the rest of the way.
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MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #51 on: February 08, 2024, 07:36:21 PM »
Yes, but it's not realistic to expect wins in every game.

As I've said, going into each game, I expect victory. I'm an optimist.

But as I look at an entire season, or the whole BEast season, or a large block of games, I know it's not realistic to expect 40-0 or 20-0 or 10-0. There are reasons why nobody has gone unbeaten in almost 50 years.

So sure, we "control" everything because we theoretically can win out. But there are a lot of games left, and how realistic is it to expect it?

It's like with Wisconsin being in the driver's seat after 5 games. There was a long way left, and it was unrealistic to expect them to lose 0-2 games the rest of the way.

It will be difficult but the opportunity is there.  At the end of the day that's all we can ask for. Especially after that complete meltdown vs Butler at Fiserv.  Yes, it probably unlikely we get a #1 seed, but nothing is impossible.  What is certain is we have yet to go medieval for 40 mins.  This cannot be disputed and we're capable of unleashing 40 mins of relentless fury when necessary.  Meaning on 2-17. 

MuMark

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #52 on: February 08, 2024, 07:57:39 PM »
We control everything assumes the other team.plays no part in the outcome…….that is silly and arrogant.

MU is a good team……there are other good teams…….to expect to win every game is unrealistic in any sport when playing against teams of similar quality.

Enjoy the friggin season…….this team will give it their best…..but in a few games the rest of the way the shots won’t fall or the other team will out play them.

We all want them to win every game…….but nobody here can post it into existence…….

MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #53 on: February 08, 2024, 08:04:30 PM »
We control everything assumes the other team.plays no part in the outcome…….that is silly and arrogant.

MU is a good team……there are other good teams…….to expect to win every game is unrealistic in any sport when playing against teams of similar quality.

Enjoy the friggin season…….this team will give it their best…..but in a few games the rest of the way the shots won’t fall or the other team will out play them.

We all want them to win every game…….but nobody here can post it into existence…….

Point well taken but besides UCONN I feel we're better than our opponents.

tower912

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #54 on: February 08, 2024, 08:06:02 PM »
Not enough better that winning can be assumed.  Except DePaul and Georgetown
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MuggsyB

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #55 on: February 08, 2024, 08:07:14 PM »
Not enough better that winning can be assumed.  Except DePaul and Georgetown

I don't disagree with that. 

barfolomew

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #56 on: February 09, 2024, 08:09:12 AM »
Agree w Brew, we would need to leapfrog all three of UNC, Tennessee, and Arizona, OR just win out (preferred option).

UNC remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Miami
Tue, Feb 13   @Syracuse
Sat, Feb 17   vsVirginia Tech
Sat, Feb 24   @Virginia
Mon, Feb 26   vsMiami
Sat, Mar 2    vsNC State
Tue, Mar 5    vsNotre Dame
Sat, Mar 9    @9 Duke


Tennessee remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Texas A&M
Wed, Feb 14   @Arkansas
Sat, Feb 17   vsVanderbilt
Tue, Feb 20   @Missouri
Sat, Feb 24   vsTexas A&M
Wed, Feb 28   vs12 Auburn
Sat, Mar 2    @16 Alabama
Wed, Mar 6   @15 South Carolina
Sat, Mar 9    vs17 Kentucky


Arizona remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Colorado
Sat, Feb 17   vsArizona State
Thu, Feb 22   vsWashington State
Sat, Feb 24   vsWashington
Wed, Feb 28   @Arizona State
Sat, Mar 2    vsOregon
Thu, Mar 7    @UCLA
Sat, Mar 9    @USC

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wisblue

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #57 on: February 09, 2024, 08:35:14 AM »


It's like with Wisconsin being in the driver's seat after 5 games. There was a long way left, and it was unrealistic to expect them to lose 0-2 games the rest of the way.

I don’t think anyone said that they expected Wisconsin to lose 0-2 games over the last 15 conference games. But, since Purdue already had road losses to Notthwestern and Nebraska and the Badgers hung a rare conference home loss on MSU, it wasn’t unrealistic to think that the Badgers would only lose 1 more game than Putdue the rest of the way.

Wisconsin was in a great position after 5 games, but they blew their advantage by losing to two of the worst teams in the conference.

HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #58 on: February 09, 2024, 08:51:39 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?

Its DJOver

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2024, 08:55:36 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?

Depends on what other teams currently on the 1-2-maybe even 3 line do.  There's probably scenarios where both MU and UConn would get 1's, there's probably scenarios where neither would.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #60 on: February 09, 2024, 08:56:46 AM »
I don't think the committee uses conference standings at all to determine seeding. They may use head to head if the resumes are otherwise equal.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #61 on: February 09, 2024, 08:58:50 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?

We would certainly be above UConn on the S-Curve. It would hard to imagine us not getting a 1 seed with 3 wins of that quality
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #62 on: February 09, 2024, 08:59:49 AM »
Hypothetical situation here but what if Marquette beat Uconn 3 times home/road/BET and finished 1 game behind them in the standings. Would Marquette grab the 1 over Uconn?


Probably both get 1s

Cause that scenario almost certainly has us as BET champs as well.
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Newsdreams

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #63 on: February 09, 2024, 09:17:42 AM »
We control everything assumes the other team.plays no part in the outcome…….that is silly and arrogant.

MU is a good team……there are other good teams…….to expect to win every game is unrealistic in any sport when playing against teams of similar quality.

Enjoy the friggin season…….this team will give it their best…..but in a few games the rest of the way the shots won’t fall or the other team will out play them.

We all want them to win every game…….but nobody here can post it into existence…….
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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #64 on: February 09, 2024, 09:48:38 AM »
Agree w Brew, we would need to leapfrog all three of UNC, Tennessee, and Arizona, OR just win out (preferred option).

UNC remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Miami
Tue, Feb 13   @Syracuse
Sat, Feb 17   vsVirginia Tech
Sat, Feb 24   @Virginia
Mon, Feb 26   vsMiami
Sat, Mar 2    vsNC State
Tue, Mar 5    vsNotre Dame
Sat, Mar 9    @9 Duke


Tennessee remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Texas A&M
Wed, Feb 14   @Arkansas
Sat, Feb 17   vsVanderbilt
Tue, Feb 20   @Missouri
Sat, Feb 24   vsTexas A&M
Wed, Feb 28   vs12 Auburn
Sat, Mar 2    @16 Alabama
Wed, Mar 6   @15 South Carolina
Sat, Mar 9    vs17 Kentucky


Arizona remaining schedule
Sat, Feb 10   @Colorado
Sat, Feb 17   vsArizona State
Thu, Feb 22   vsWashington State
Sat, Feb 24   vsWashington
Wed, Feb 28   @Arizona State
Sat, Mar 2    vsOregon
Thu, Mar 7    @UCLA
Sat, Mar 9    @USC

The biggest thing is that we have more opportunities to improve our resume than the rest of them do. We could get as few as 3 and as many as 5 games against protected seeds between now and Selection Sunday. Arizona will have none, UNC would have at most two. Tennessee is the only other one with a number of chances. If we perform well in those games (3-2, 4-1, or better) while taking care of business against lesser foes, we will certainly pass Arizona and UNC. There is nothing they can do about that.

Tennessee is the biggest competition, and I would even put Kansas ahead of the other two simply because of the wins they have already accrued and the opportunities they have.
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HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #65 on: February 09, 2024, 12:11:53 PM »
The biggest thing is that we have more opportunities to improve our resume than the rest of them do. We could get as few as 3 and as many as 5 games against protected seeds between now and Selection Sunday. Arizona will have none, UNC would have at most two. Tennessee is the only other one with a number of chances. If we perform well in those games (3-2, 4-1, or better) while taking care of business against lesser foes, we will certainly pass Arizona and UNC. There is nothing they can do about that.

Tennessee is the biggest competition, and I would even put Kansas ahead of the other two simply because of the wins they have already accrued and the opportunities they have.

100% agree. Marquette has minimum 2 against Uconn, 1 against Creighton and more than like at minimum 1 more against Creighton/Uconn depending on how the cards fall to end the year.

Tennessee is the only team I want Marquette to avoid. I believe they are the best team in the country.

Ardmore Mug

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #66 on: February 09, 2024, 12:20:43 PM »
We can only control what we do !!!  Winning cures all, ! ! !  Just WIN Baby ! ! !  8-)

Pepe Sylvia

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #67 on: February 09, 2024, 01:06:32 PM »
We have 5 Q1 guaranteed games remaining on the schedule that are likely to still be there on selection sunday. Both of the UConn, and at Xavier, Butler, and Creighton. To get a 1 seed, we probably have to go 4-1 in those. 3-2 at minimum. 3-2 maybe the minimum just to protect our projected 2.

The Butler loss is the real craw-sticker this year. Why oh why we played catastrophically awful for the second half of that game I will never understand. With a win there we're probably the last 1 seed right now.

Got beat by Providence and Wisconsin

Hard fought losses to Seton Hall and Purdue.

Just can't even tell what happened against Butler. Maybe they all caught the flu at halftime.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #68 on: February 10, 2024, 11:52:17 AM »
We have 5 Q1 guaranteed games remaining on the schedule that are likely to still be there on selection sunday. Both of the UConn, and at Xavier, Butler, and Creighton. To get a 1 seed, we probably have to go 4-1 in those. 3-2 at minimum. 3-2 maybe the minimum just to protect our projected 2.

The Butler loss is the real craw-sticker this year. Why oh why we played catastrophically awful for the second half of that game I will never understand. With a win there we're probably the last 1 seed right now.

Got beat by Providence and Wisconsin

Hard fought losses to Seton Hall and Purdue.

Just can't even tell what happened against Butler. Maybe they all caught the flu at halftime.

If we go 3-2 and win the other 4 games, we are a lock for at least a 2 seed. Probably not a 1 but possible if the others around us fall apart.

I think theres currently a top 3 (UConn, UH, and Shreks team) and then a group of 5 (Tenn, Zona, MU, UNC, and KU) competing for the last one seed.  There's a significant gap between those 5 and the rest of the field. It would take multiple bad losses without big wins or big wins with no bad losses from someone on the three line for one of those 5 to drop to a 3.
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1SE

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #69 on: February 14, 2024, 02:22:34 AM »
Odds of winning out now about 2% - win @UCONN and it jumps to 8% - or, beat everyone but @UCONN odds about 8% - I'd say beating everyone except @UCONN would be a 1 seed, so let's put an 8% chance on that.

If you think we need 1 of 3 again UCONN/@CU to get a two seed, odds are about 16.5%. If you think we get a two without beating UCONN or @CU, up to about 38%. That said, odds of winning at least 1 of 3 against UCONN/@CU are almost 79%.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #70 on: February 14, 2024, 10:23:45 AM »
I'm fairly certain were the top 2 seed at the moment andb theres a decent gap between the 3s and 2s. I think 6-2 locks us into the 2 seed regardless of BET. 5-3 may be enough depending on what those around us do.

7-1 feels like a 1 seed to me. Maybe we could miss if Zona wins out through the P12 championship and we falter in the BET
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #71 on: February 14, 2024, 10:32:13 AM »
I'm fairly certain were the top 2 seed at the moment andb theres a decent gap between the 3s and 2s. I think 6-2 locks us into the 2 seed regardless of BET. 5-3 may be enough depending on what those around us do.

7-1 feels like a 1 seed to me. Maybe we could miss if Zona wins out through the P12 championship and we falter in the BET

You counting Butler in that? Cause we only got 7 games left.
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HowardsWorld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #72 on: February 14, 2024, 10:40:51 AM »
The game on Saturday vs Uconn is for the last 1 seed if the tournament started next week. The only team that is a lock for a 1 seed as of now is Purdue. Marquette could play Uconn 3 times and even if MU won 2/3 I believe they would over take UConn's 1 seed.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #73 on: February 14, 2024, 10:48:50 AM »
The game on Saturday vs Uconn is for the last 1 seed if the tournament started next week. The only team that is a lock for a 1 seed as of now is Purdue. Marquette could play Uconn 3 times and even if MU won 2/3 I believe they would over take UConn's 1 seed.

UConn would not fall off the 1 line.  Like TAMU said, the top 3 have a cushion over the next 5-6 teams.

1SE

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Resume Fine Lines
« Reply #74 on: February 14, 2024, 10:52:34 AM »
The game on Saturday vs Uconn is for the last 1 seed if the tournament started next week. The only team that is a lock for a 1 seed as of now is Purdue. Marquette could play Uconn 3 times and even if MU won 2/3 I believe they would over take UConn's 1 seed.

Yes, I think the only way UCONN falls off the one line is if they don't win the BE, which likely means we had to beat them twice.

But depending on what happens with the others (if Zona trips up, or Houston loses maybe 3 more) I could see both us and UCONN on the 1 line with a series split. 25-6 with wins v. UCONN, @ Creighton, @ILL, n KU,  strikes me as stronger resume than a 25-6 Houston or a 25-6 Zona whose best win is???  v. Bucky?

Houston is really a wild card - they have 6 Q1 and 3Q1A games left - go 5-1 there and they're a 1 seed lock. Go 2-4 they might be down to a 3 seed.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2024, 10:57:35 AM by 1SE »
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