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Author Topic: Marquette Team Rankings  (Read 9942 times)

rocket surgeon

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2023, 10:09:45 AM »
I sure as hell hope they end up better than a 3 seed !

  lunardi's bracketology has us at a 1 seed as of right now, but yes, i'd like to see us at 1 or a 2
don't...don't don't don't don't

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2023, 10:09:47 AM »
Guys,  it’s a computer model. It doesn’t use that kind of logic. Same as Kenpom, which has us favored to win all but 2 games the rest of the year but projects our record as 24-7(15-5). It assigns a probability of win based on how favored we are and then “rolls the dice”. If we played 20 games where we had a 51% chance to win, would you expect to go 20-0? Don’t read too much into it. We get to play the games

Exactly.
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MUbiz

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2023, 10:50:41 AM »
Exactly.

Exactly x100. Got to play the games. Plus the computer models do not favor MU like the Dookie's or other blue bloods.

lawdog77

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2023, 11:30:59 AM »
Guys,  it’s a computer model. It doesn’t use that kind of logic. Same as Kenpom, which has us favored to win all but 2 games the rest of the year but projects our record as 24-7(15-5). It assigns a probability of win based on how favored we are and then “rolls the dice”. If we played 20 games where we had a 51% chance to win, would you expect to go 20-0? Don’t read too much into it. We get to play the games
You suitin up, Carl?
 I know what projections/models are. It's just kind of stupid and shows how bad your model is to state we are #5, but a projected 3 seed. We are either the 5th best team (and a 2 seed), or the 9th-12th best and a 3 seed.

Jay Bee

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2023, 11:47:34 AM »
You suitin up, Carl?
 I know what projections/models are. It's just kind of stupid and shows how bad your model is to state we are #5, but a projected 3 seed. We are either the 5th best team (and a 2 seed), or the 9th-12th best and a 3 seed.

Why is this so difficult?

If you, based on YTD performance, rank a team as of today a certain way, why would you need to project them to be at that same ranking 4 months from now?!
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2023, 11:52:31 AM »
I read “current” for 5th best and “projected” for 3 seed. Based on projected record, doesn’t appear 100% crazy

I guess from that perspective I could get it. Every other way seems to do an "if the season ended today" projection for brackets so I didn't get it
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lawdog77

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2023, 12:14:07 PM »
Why is this so difficult?

If you, based on YTD performance, rank a team as of today a certain way, why would you need to project them to be at that same ranking 4 months from now?!
It's not. That was my first response, this model seems to think we will regress from our current rank. Which shows the flaw in the model. I understand projected w-l change (more losses than projected), but the actual ranking shouldn't change.

Carl

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #32 on: November 30, 2023, 12:20:13 PM »
I’m sorry this random model has impacted your morning so much. Maybe grab an ice cream cone and we can turn this day around

BLWarrior91

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2023, 12:27:12 PM »
On Field of 68 two days ago, both Fanta and Chris Mack picked Marquette to win the national championship and TO picked them to make the Final Four.

Fanta correctly noted that MU didn’t even play their best in Maui and says we can absolutely play better.

Thank you, Abilene Christian University for making this possible.

Carl

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #34 on: November 30, 2023, 12:47:51 PM »
Any chance you have a link to that BLW?

MUbiz

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #35 on: November 30, 2023, 12:54:35 PM »

wadesworld

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2023, 01:51:48 PM »
So of 3 teams.  Not of the entire field of all of college basketball.
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BLWarrior91

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #37 on: November 30, 2023, 02:15:52 PM »
Yes, but they are the top three ranked teams at this time.

Jay Bee

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #38 on: November 30, 2023, 09:36:58 PM »
On Field of 68 two days ago, both Fanta and Chris Mack picked Marquette to win the national championship and TO picked them to make the Final Four.

Fanta correctly noted that MU didn’t even play their best in Maui and says we can absolutely play better.

Thank you, Abilene Christian University for making this possible.

This post is bad. NOT what was said, at all
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Carl

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #39 on: November 30, 2023, 09:52:23 PM »
Only in a Marry, F*ck, Kill sense

MuMark

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #40 on: November 30, 2023, 09:58:32 PM »
Exactly x100. Got to play the games. Plus the computer models do not favor MU like the Dookie's or other blue bloods.

Actually a blue blood or not has no bearing on a computer model…data is blind…..….Houston has been a computer darling over the last number of years and they are obviously not a blue blood.


MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #41 on: December 07, 2023, 12:12:42 AM »
Marquette BasketballPredictions Update
Dec 3, 2023
•   After losing to Wisconsin 75-64 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 23-8 (14-6 Big East).
•   The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are 99%, unchanged since yesterday.
•   We currently rank Marquette as the #6 team in the country, and the #2 team in the Big East.
•   Next game: Wed, Dec 6 vs. #30 Texas. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 76% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament   99%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid   24%
Projected Seed (if Selected) 4

Hards Alumni

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #42 on: December 07, 2023, 06:36:39 AM »
Projected as the #6 team in basketball yet a 4 seed?  Strange measuring stick being utilized here.

tower912

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2023, 06:38:31 AM »
Current ranking vs projected ranking at the end of the year.    Still disagree with it, but that is the reason for the discrepancy.
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MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2023, 02:25:44 PM »
Marquette Basketball Predictions Update
Dec 7, 2023
•   After beating Texas 86-65 yesterday, Marquette is now projected to finish the regular season 24-7 (15-5 Big East).
•   The odds that the Golden Eagles make the NCAA tournament are currently 100%.
•   We currently rank Marquette as the #7 team in the country, and the #3 team in the Big East.
•   Next game: Sat, Dec 9 vs. #168 Notre Dame. Our power ratings give the Golden Eagles a 98% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament   100%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid   26%
Projected Seed 3

Galway Eagle

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #45 on: December 07, 2023, 02:32:34 PM »
We destroyed Texas and moved down in the big east rankings... interesting
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Skatastrophy

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #46 on: December 07, 2023, 02:37:23 PM »
We destroyed Texas and moved down in the big east rankings... interesting

Moved up from a 4 seed to a 3 seed though.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2023, 02:40:47 PM »
Moved up from a 4 seed to a 3 seed though.


Also dropped from 6th best team in the country to 7th.
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Newsdreams

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #48 on: December 08, 2023, 04:46:24 PM »

Also dropped from 6th best team in the country to 7th.
I understand, not kidding, probably takes into account the unfortunate 4 Quad BE games that could be worse on the NET for MU than the rodent game
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brewcity77

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Re: Marquette Team Rankings
« Reply #49 on: December 08, 2023, 05:15:33 PM »
I understand, not kidding, probably takes into account the unfortunate 4 Quad BE games that could be worse on the NET for MU than the rodent game

If we beat them convincingly, it won't hurt at all and could help. This isn't the RPI.
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